Marcos allies likely to push Duterte’s impeachment before midterms — analyst

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s political sway would likely wane after the 2025 midterm elections, which could compel his allies to push the impeachment of Vice-President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio ahead of the midterm polls, a political analyst said on Sunday.

However, administration lawmakers are wary of railroading Ms. Duterte’s impeachment as she remains popular among Filipino voters, which could frustrate Mr. Marcos’ efforts to groom a successor for the 2028 national polls, he added.

Two impeachment complaints against Ms. Duterte have so far been filed by civil society groups last week on the grounds of alleged graft, corruption, bribery, and betrayal of public trust, among other charges.

Another impeachment case is also under way, House of Representatives Secretary-General Reginald S. Velasco said last week.

The Office of the Vice President did not immediately respond to an e-mail seeking comment.

“To do it after the midterm elections will be risky,” Arjan P. Aguire, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Incumbent presidents risk losing their political influence during midterm elections as voters get another chance to choose who will represent them in Congress, a supposed independent branch of the Philippine government that has historically aligned with the sitting leader.

“A post midterm ‘lame-duck’ period is where you start to see the sitting president lose much of their influence in terms of party switching, lack of cohesion in his coalition and aggressiveness from the opposition,” said Mr. Aguirre.

All 318 seats in the House will be voted on by Filipinos, while 12 spots in the influential 24-seat Senate are up for grabs.

Impeachment complaints are first heard at the House, where congressmen will discuss whether the ouster raps hold water. At least 103 lawmakers need to agree with the complaint for it to be elevated to the Senate for trial. The chamber is headed by Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez, a cousin of the president. 

“That’s the only strength that Mr. Marcos has these days, a House under the control of his cousin,” said Mr. Aguirre.

The impeachment complaint could be a part of Mr. Marcos’ coalition building in preparation for the upcoming elections, Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at the De La Salle University, said in a Facebook chat. “We can consider this entire impeachment issue as an exercise in coalition building as much as it is an attack against an opponent.”

Ms. Duterte is still “seen as a contender” for the 2028 elections despite controversies hounding her secret fund spending, said Mr. Aguirre.

“If the consolidated impeachment complaint would succeed and eventually oust Ms. Duterte from office, it could mean removing a serious contender in the 2028 presidential race and could increase the winning chances of an administration bet,” Dennis C. Coronacion, chair of the Political Science department at the University of Sto. Tomas, said in a Facebook chat.

The embattled vice-president has been the subject of congressional investigations into her spending of P612.5 million worth of confidential and intelligence funds in 2022 and 2023.

“The focus on Ms. Duterte is good for the Marcos administration because people seem to forget that Mr. Marcos has a bigger budget, more powers and responsibilities,” Jean S. Encinas-Franco, who teaches political science at the University of the Philippines, said in a Viber message. “He also must be held accountable for his promises.”