US may lose focus on South China Sea issue amid Israeli war vs Hamas, analysts say

THE UNITED STATES risks losing focus on a belligerent China and the wider freedom of navigation issue in the Indo-Pacific region with its involvement in the wars between Israel and Hamas militants and between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical analysts said.

This gives China room to consolidate its influence in the region, they said. 

Richard Heydarian, a senior lecturer at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines, in a series of X posts doubted that the US could handle Israel’s war in Gaza, the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s aggression in the South China Sea simultaneously.

Chinese authorities “clearly believe that America is too distracted by conflicts elsewhere,” he said, days after the Chinese Coast Guard blocked a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea that led to collisions between Chinese and Philippine vessels.

“It’s China, more than any other revisionist act, that cannot only challenge US primacy, but also literally pose an existential threat to key Asian allies,” Mr. Heydarian said.

He said the US had spent $61.4 billion (P3.5 trillion) and $14.3 billion for Ukraine and Israel — way bigger than the $2 billion allocated by Washington for the entire Indo-Pacific region.

The US embassy in Manila did not immediately reply to a Viber message seeking comment.

Hamas militants backed by a barrage of rockets stormed from the blockaded Gaza Strip into nearby Israeli towns, killing dozens and kidnapping others in an unprecedented surprise attack on Oct. 7.

DFA said a Filipina had sought the help of the Philippine Embassy in Tel Aviv after her Filipino husband was seen in one of the videos on social media of captives being rounded up by the militant Palestinian group.

Security experts also said US support for Israel, which has rejected calls for a ceasefire in Gaza after the Oct. 7 surprise attack by Hamas militants, and its veto of a United Nations (UN) resolution calling for a humanitarian pause in the war-torn Palestinian territory had eroded its credibility in the Global South, potentially weakening its influence on the Philippines.

The 193-member UN General Assembly last week passed a resolution drafted by a group of 22 Arab countries calling for a sustained and immediate “humanitarian truce” in Gaza amid Israel’s continued bombardment of the narrow strip, with the US and Israel leading 14 countries in rejecting the measure.

The Philippines was one of 45 countries that abstained.

Maria Thaemar C. Tana, an international relations assistant professor at the University of the Philippines Department of Political Science, said US support for Israel has largely been regarded as an obstacle to achieving peace and stability in the Middle East, with Washington accused of failing to advance calls for an Israel-Palestine peace process. 

“The declining US credibility in the Middle East due to its unwavering support for Israel could have indirect but significant implications for US-Philippines relations,” she said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “For one, it may raise questions about the dependability of US commitments and alliances.”

She noted that the US is seen prioritizing strategic interests over democracy and human rights, “leading to criticism of its inconsistent advocacy for liberal values.”

The US has played an important role in the push for human rights and democratic norms in the Philippines, whose human rights situation has been criticized by the international community amid the government’s deadly war on drugs.

If the US loses credibility in the Middle East, it may seek to rebalance its foreign policy priorities, “which could affect the allocation of resources, attention, and diplomatic efforts in other regions, including Southeast Asia [and the entire] Indo-Pacific region,” Ms. Tana said.

“Should Arab and Muslim countries read Washington’s swift and unequivocal support for Israel as a sign of partiality, it may undermine America’s role as an honest broker in the thorny dispute and open space for other mediators, not least its rival China,” Lucio B. Pitlo, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, said via Messenger chat.

“A major ground offensive in Gaza, especially if seen with the US blessing, will complicate America’s relations with Muslim countries from the Middle East to Southeast Asia,” he added.

Some Filipino Muslims held a protest in the Bangsamoro region in southern Philippines this month, condemning Israel’s attack on Gaza. They also likened the Palestinian cause to the Bangsamoro’s struggle in Mindanao.

More than 7,000 people have died in Gaza, and the death toll continues to rise as Israel pounds the strip with airstrikes, according to Palestinian authorities.

A ground invasion of Gaza has become more imminent after the Israeli military issued an “urgent plea” at the weekend for Palestinians to head south immediately as it vowed to neutralize Hamas militants.

Amid the conflict, China has tried to present itself as a mediator, calling for a two state-resolution. Its Foreign Ministry has cited the “historical injustices” committed against Palestinians.

“Any action America does here that continues to coddle Israel will provoke resentment [in the Philippines],” with pro-China blocks “politicizing anything that America does as a provocation,” said Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University.

“Within the government, we might see a secret consensus to not say anything to rock the boat given our security ties with the US, even at the expense of our credibility in maintaining global human rights standards,” he added. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza