Persisting towards enduring growth

By Bjorn Biel M. Beltran, Special Features and Content Assistant Editor

When success is achieved once but is fleeting and irreplicable, it is regarded as a fluke, a statistical anomaly. But when success happens again and again, when it is consistent and intentional, that is called greatness. The key, therefore, is persistence.

Attaining such persistence was explored in this year’s BusinessWorld Forecast forum, which tackled the theme “PH Forward: Towards A Sustained Growth Path,” gathering the foremost authorities, leaders, and luminaries in the Philippine business community and beyond to discuss the coming year, the economic outlook for 2025, as well as the challenges and trends that can impact the country’s ongoing growth.

“[T]he Philippine government is confident that the country will still end the year as one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies. This means that our collective efforts and the resilience of our economy, supported by infrastructure investments, a robust services sector, and a thriving digital economy, are paying dividends,” Miguel G. Belmonte, president and CEO of BusinessWorld, said in his welcome remarks.

“Our ability to keep moving forward, however, will continue to be tested by threats, both persistent and unforeseen. Our constants include political and geopolitical uncertainty; climate events; rising debt and fiscal deficits, to name a few. So, what will drive us towards sustained and meaningful growth? This is a question which we hope today’s forum will help us unlock some answers to.”

Towards this goal, Finance Undersecretary and Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez shared the Philippine government’s vision in a keynote address on “Outlook and Agenda for the Philippine Economy in 2025,” where she discussed the country’s growth prospects and how momentum can be sustained amid global challenges and uncertainties.

“The Philippines is no longer just preparing for economic take-off. We stand ready to soar as a global economic superstar, fueled by resilience, innovation and the determination of our people. Now more than ever is the perfect time to ride its momentum, by transforming opportunities into milestones and aspirations into realities. Together, we will shape a brighter, more prosperous future for the country,” she said.

In particular, she pointed out that the country is poised to ascend to upper middle-income in 2025, through a steady reduction in deficit and debt, the financing of long-term investments, the recently-signed Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act, and the creation of better jobs in the goal of boosting incomes and reducing poverty rate to single-digit levels by 2028.

The government is also looking to initiate reforms to increase foreign direct investments, such as reducing the tax on stock transactions to help boost the Philippine capital markets.

Nothing worthwhile comes easy

Such high aspirations come fraught with risk. Zafer Mustafaoğlu, country director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei at the World Bank, highlighted the challenges that the country might face towards its goal of being an economic giant in the coming decades.

“The path to a trillion-dollar economy is not easy. It’s a very important and ambitious target. It is not easy, but certainly it is feasible under certain conditions,” Mr. Mustafaoğlu said in his keynote on navigating the future of the Philippine economy, noting the country’s sustained growth rate of 6% could be a solid foundation for the goal.

Specifically, he highlighted the significance of improving human capital through education, nutrition and health, and the country’s physical and digital infrastructure through connectivity, energy security, and disaster resilience. “That investment in infrastructure, human capital, resilience agenda or facilitating technology adoption will require fiscal space,” he added.

Moreover, Pavit Ramachandran, country director for the Philippines at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), talking about “Sustaining Philippines’ Growth in Stabilizing Global Economy,” said that while the country’s growth trajectory remains “very promising,” there are a number of factors that could pose a threat to sustained growth such as an unexpected slowdown in major economies, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and climate change.

“The global environment today is presenting unprecedented challenges for highly integrated economies like the Philippines,” he said in a speech delivered via video.

“I want to highlight that the Philippines stands at a critical junction in its trajectory, an inflection point if you like. By leveraging its strengths, embracing innovation, and investing in resilience, the country can navigate through these challenges and chart a path towards sustained inclusive growth,” he said.

With so many different moving parts in the Philippines’ economic narrative, the country is also at risk of meandering instead of flourishing. In a presentation, McKinsey & Co. Manila Managing Partner Jon Canto stressed the need to focus on the big picture as he talked about the investment outlook for the Philippines for 2025.

“Investment is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition, for growth. Ultimately, our objective as a country is not investment, but growth. There’s a lot more factors that influence growth than investments,” he said, adding that the Philippines needs to focus on key economic enablers that would define its future.

“How do we choose which sectors we are going to focus on? We cannot continue to spread ourselves too thin. We need to make some bets and make them very clear. And what do we want to be known for as a country, beyond English-speaking, beyond low-cost, beyond typhoons? And let’s build a plan towards it,” he said.

Where should our focus be?

The first panel of the conference set its sights on answering that question, addressing “Gearing the Investment Space for Sustained Economic Growth” which featured George S. Uy-Tioco, Jr., chief financial officer of GT Capital Holdings, Inc.; Cosette Canilao, president and chief executive officer (CEO) of Aboitiz InfraCapital, Inc.; Maria Carmela Laarni G. Felicidario, chief operating officer at Global Dominion Financing, Inc.; Erwin G. Pato, executive vice-president for treasury, finance, and planning at SM Investments Corp.; and Alberto De Larrazabal, senior managing director, chief finance, and finance group head at Ayala Corp.

Afterwards, bringing the discussion back to key sectors of the economy, the second panel, discussed “Infrastructure, Mobility, and Real Estate: Pillars of Long-Term Economic Growth.” Jamie Alfonso Zobel De Ayala, chief executive officer of ACMobility; Jean-Baptiste Dreanic, deputy general manager of Engie Services Philippines; and Roderick M. Danao, chairman and senior partner of PwC Philippines, shared their insights.

Talking about “Philippine Tourism: Maximizing Present Gains and Building its Sustainable Future,” Tourism Secretary Ma. Esperanza Christina G. Frasco discussed onstage the government’s current plans to reinvigorate the sector.

A panel discussion on “Keeping Retail’s Pace with Consumers’ Changing Ways” gathered Vicky Abad, country director at Ipsos Philippines, Inc.; Sherisa Nuesa, chairperson at Metro Retail Stores Group, Inc.; and Jennifer Jane G. Echevarria, vice-president for enterprise data and strategic services at Globe Telecom, to illustrate the latest shifts in the consumer market.

Meanwhile, the panel on “Supercharging Philippine Businesses and Workforces in the AI Age” looked towards the country’s workplaces to gauge the impact of artificial intelligence. Peter Maquera, president and CEO of Microsoft Philippines; Pia Azarcon, managing partner for consulting at IBM Philippines; Gian Paulo Dela Rama, chief product officer of Sprout Solutions and head of Sprout AI Labs; and Dominic Ligot, founder, CEO, and CTO of Cirrolytix, shared their expertise.

Among fireside chats, Dr. Jesus Felipe, distinguished professor at the De Le Salle University Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics, shared his thoughts on “Priming Philippine Economy’s Growth Through Timely Policies;” while Anthony Oundjian, managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, presented on “Managing the Generational Divide in the Workplace.”

The forum was hosted by TV5 News Anchor Jester Delos Santos, while the sessions were moderated by BusinessWorld journalists — Editor-in-Chief Cathy Rose A. Garcia, Corporate News Editor Arjay L. Balinbin, Research Head Mark T. Amoguis, Reporters Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson and Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, and Multimedia Producer Patricia B. Mirasol.

BusinessWorld Forecast 2025 was supported by gold sponsors Ayala Corp., Federal Land NRE Global, Megaworld Corp., SM Investments Corp., SM Supermalls, and Globaltronics, Inc.; silver sponsors BDO Unibank, Inc., Engie Services Philippines, Global Dominion Financing, Inc., Globe Telecom, Inc., and San Miguel Corp.; and bronze sponsors FWD Insurance, Manila Electric Co., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., National Grid Corporation of the Philippines, SGV & Co., Shang Properties, Standard Chartered Bank, Gokongwei Group, Megawide Construction Corp., PLDT, Inc., and Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. Partner organizations were the Asian Consulting Group; American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines; Bank Marketing Association of the Philippines; British Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines; Management Association of the Philippines; Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry; Philippine Franchise Association; Philippine Retailers Association, and J. Legaspi Computer Graphics. One News and The Philippine STAR served as media partners.