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Coal use and GDP growth correlation

Among the tricks used by the anti-fossil fuel, anti-coal groups is to never recognize growth and economic modernization of countries that have relied on cheap, stable and reliable energy source. So for this paper, I scoured through actual numbers of coal consumption in million tons oil equivalent (mtoe) from 1965-2018, and GDP growth 1965-2018. Data source for the former is the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2019, and for the later, the WB, World Development Indicators database, August 2019.

First I computed the annual growth rate of coal mtoe from 1966 to 2018, then got the averages per 10 years. (See Table 1.)

The WB’s GDP growth rates are already in percentages so I just computed the averages per 10 years. (See Table 2.)

What do the numbers show?

One, there is clear correlation between growth in coal consumption and growth in GDP, for all countries above in most years indicated. See the US, Australia, and Japan — deceleration in coal use from 2006 to 2018 translated to low growth of below 3% for the US and Australia, and a maximum of 1.1% growth for Japan. For Germany, their energy transition away from coal resulted in ever-rising energy prices and slow growth, below 2% from 1996-2018.

Two, for developing or emerging economies: Turkey’s average coal use of about 5% a year also translated to around 5% GDP growth. For China, about 6% average growth in coal use translated to around 9% average GDP growth from the 1960s to 2005. Decline in coal use by China also showed decline in GDP growth over the past three years.

Three, among the world’s biggest economies in terms of GDP size are also the world’s biggest consumers of coal energy — the US, China, India, and Japan.

This is not to say that coal use is the single most important factor for fast or slow growth of countries, no. There are a dozen other factors of course, but having cheap, stable and reliable electricity is one of the most important prerequisites to have high and sustained growth. No big manufacturing, banking, tourism projects will stay in a country which has frequent blackouts, or there is zero blackout but electricity prices are high due to frequent use of diesel gensets.

The climate alarmism movement is dishonest and deceptive. If there is less rain, less floods, less snow, they say it is proof of “man-made” warming/climate change/CC. If there are more rains, more floods, more snow, they say it is also proof of “man-made” warming/CC. And so we send more money (taxes, subsidies) to the UN, government and their new crony firms. Whatever weather and climate.

Climate change is true but it is cyclical and natural, largely nature-made and not man-made. To say that we need more government, more UN, and mandatory renewable energy to fight less rain and more rain, less floods and more floods, is a cheap but painful insult to our brains and pockets.

 

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com

What instrument do you play?

By Tony Samson

THE ORCHESTRA has been employed often as paradigm for the effectiveness of organizations, including of course a performing group of musicians.

The similarities that justify using the metaphor of the orchestra for the effectiveness of an organization involve the need for coordination and performance levels for the harmonious rendition of the plan (or musical score). Corporate planning sessions, also called VVM (for Vision, Values, and Mission) point to effectively combining the different instruments and sounds (including whining, moaning, and sobbing) that emanate from different parts of the organization. In the conglomerate structure, there is the addition of distance, disparity of goals, and unusual instruments (like the nose flute) to contend with.

Here are some orchestral issues that organizations contend with:

The extremely talented cellist doesn’t follow instructions and seems to play solo all the time. She doesn’t follow the conductor’s instruction for a pianissimo rendition to let the first violin take the lead. The egregious talent is usually accompanied by a bad attitude and a prima donna sense of entitlement and short fuse. Should such a talent be wasted in an orchestra, or is she best when playing solo (the theme from Sophie’s Choice) with the rest taking an accompanying role? Isn’t such a difficult but highly accomplished talent worth keeping… from the competition?

What about musicians who play below par? They don’t meet their targets because they don’t rehearse or simply lack the talent. Can an orchestra afford to keep them? As Maria Callas, the great diva and exemplar of the prima donna tantrum-thrower, once noted about the quality of performance — the first drop in quality, like gliding up to the high notes is noticed first by the artist herself. The second level of deterioration may be picked up by the conductor. The lowest level is noted by the audience itself. A consistent below-par performance for even a sought-after soprano means it’s time to get off the stage and just teach. Master Class, the play (1995) on Maria Callas as mentor explores this theme.

Discordant notes that spoil a performance include not meeting timelines, skipping rehearsals, failing to master the material, and, of course, the mismatch of talent and the assigned role in the ensemble. (Maybe, she should try the harp.)

What about the conductor himself? Shouldn’t the leader (or facilitator) be subject to criticism as well? If an orchestra is not performing well (or missing its targets too long) some blame must fall on the conductor. Isn’t this why conductors are celebrated for having great orchestras under them? After all, they have a hand in picking the talents to hire as well as the music that suits them.

The orchestra needs to work together to play one piece. The corporate expression is clear in establishing the way to a successful performance — are we on the same page?

Orchestras, or bands, need to decide which niches to cater to. Rock bands can be as successful as symphony orchestras, and can make more money, even with a smaller audience, usually on their feet and screaming.

The orchestra paradigm for business organizations has much to offer. Nurturing and building a team to achieve goals, using the disparate talents and the strong egos of individuals, is an intriguing challenge.

Maybe the orchestra idea only applies to large companies with many moving roles. The small entrepreneurs like the caterer, couturier, and event planner hew closer to the solo performer who can improvise in a karaoke setting of uneven quality.

In both types of organizations, large or small, the critical question to ask of a new member is simple — what value do you bring to the enterprise? What instrument do you play, and play at an acceptable level of virtuosity? (We already have a good cymbalist.)

For orchestras, as well as corporations, the final test of a performance, whether harmonious or discordant (some pieces call for atonal renditions), is marketability. It is still the paying audience that determines the success of the organization.

Musicians, like their corporate counterparts, can have a hard time switching jobs even as a freelancer in a pick-up band. Not every orchestra has an opening for a cymbalist… even when he brings his own instrument.

 

Tony Samson is Chairman and CEO, TOUCH xda.

ar.samson@yahoo.com

Only Donald Trump can save the global economy

By Ferdinando Giugliano

AS THE global economy shows signs of stuttering, the race is on to find the right policy response. In Europe, many central bankers are asking politicians in countries such as Germany to unleash a fiscal stimulus to complement their recent monetary push. In the US, President Donald Trump is lambasting the Federal Reserve for failing to cut rates fast enough, letting the dollar appreciate excessively.

But any such antidote would only be a second best response to what is really driving the global slowdown. The world economy is suffering because of trade tensions and the pernicious effect that uncertainty is having on the spending decisions of consumers and companies. Until this is resolved, any other policy moves will only have a mitigating effect on growth.

The scale of the challenge facing the world economy is clear from the latest batch of forecasts from the World Trade Organization (WTO) published last week. The WTO now predicts that global merchandise trade volumes will rise by only 1.2% in 2019, which is less than half than the 2.6% growth forecast in April. Trade growth is expected to recover next year to 2.7%, but much depend on how trade tensions pan out. In the past two years, the same measure has grown at an average yearly rate of 3.8%.

There is strong evidence that robust trade growth leads to fast economic growth. In a classic study, economists Jeffrey Frankel and David Romer have found that a country’s distance from other countries is a powerful predictor of economic growth, after accounting for other characteristics. The authors note that such geographic factors are not a consequence of income or government policy, but have an important role in determining how much a country trades. Hence they conclude that trade must have a significant effect on growth, specifically by spurring the accumulation of physical and human capital and by allowing companies to enjoy economies of scale.

Other studies have also shown that episodes of trade liberalization have pushed companies to become more productive. Another set of economists, Nicholas Bloom, Mirko Draca and John Van Reenen, wrote in a paper that the increased influx of Chinese imports into Europe following Beijing’s entry into the WTO has sparked greater innovation in Europe, underlining to the positive effect of competition from abroad.

TRADING BLOWS
It is no surprise then that the deleterious impact of the trade conflict between the US, China and other countries is becoming progressively clearer. Last week, a number of indicators in the manufacturing sector — which is most exposed to external demand — showed pronounced weakness across the global economy. In the US, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 47.8 in September, the lowest since June 2009, while the measure of export orders fell to 41, the lowest since March 2009. The HIS Markit’s index for manufacturing in the euro area touched 45.7 last month, the lowest level since October 2012, at the height of the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis. The drop was particularly sharp in Germany, which saw the measure fall to 41.7, the lowest reading since 2009.

Moreover, the impact risks being long lasting in the absence of a truce. In her maiden speech as managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva said that the cumulative effects of trade conflicts — including the impact on confidence and market reactions — could mean a loss of around $700 billion, or about 0.8% of global gross domestic product, by 2020. “This is approximately the size of Switzerland’s entire economy,” Georgieva said.

There is little doubt that other policy areas can contribute to supporting the world economy. In particular, there is ample room for some European countries such as Germany to respond to this external shock by boosting domestic demand. This would also help to re-orient its economy away from exports, which are proving a double-edged sword after years of boom. In the US, the Federal Reserve will want to look at what is going on beyond manufacturing before deciding whether to add to rate cuts in the second half of this year.

But even if policy makers pulled all the other right levers, uncertainty will endure so long as the US administration does not pull back from protectionism. The key questions for the world economy remain whether Trump will finally decide to change course and, if he doesn’t, whether any new US president would. You don’t realize just how good the gains from globalization are until you’ve lost them.

 

BLOOMBERG OPINION

TNT survives Northport to stay undefeated

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo
Senior Reporter

THE TNT KaTropa remained on the top of the heap in the ongoing Philippine Basketball Association Governors’ Cup after notching their fifth win in as many games with a hard-earned 103-100 victory over the Northport Batang Pier on Wednesday at the Cuneta Astrodome in Pasay City.

Riding on the strong efforts of import KJ McDaniels and Troy Rosario down the stretch, the KaTropa (5-0) were able to extricate themselves from the tough stand given by the Batang Pier (1-4) to stay unscathed in the season-ending PBA tournament.

Mr. McDaniels finished with 30 points and 18 rebounds to pace TNT with Mr. Rosario adding 22 points, majority of which coming in the pivotal fourth quarter.

The KaTropa got off to a strong start with Mr. McDaniels on the lead.

They raced to a 20-9 advantage with 3:23 left in the opening quarter before settling for a narrower separation of 24-18 after the first canto.

In the second quarter, the Batang Pier tried to gain some traction early but TNT was steady in fending them off.

TNT held a 10-point advantage, 41-31, midway into the frame, and continued to hold command, 46-38, at the break.

Northport would unleash a ferocious run in the third canto with Garvo Lanete, import Mychal Ammons and Paolo Taha conspiring to lead their charge.

It opened the quarter with a 23-13 run to claim a 61-59 advantage by the 6:03 mark.

The two teams went back and forth after then had the Batang Pier sailed to a strong finish to the quarter to hold a five-point lead, 70-65, heading into the final frame.

Swinging the momentum in its favor, Northport started the fourth period with added bounce to its game.

They stretched its lead to nine points, 82-73, in the first three minutes.

Mr. McDaniels though racked up four straight points to narrow the gap to 82-77 a minute later.

The KaTropa kept the pressure on the Batang Pier, coming to within a point, 87-86, with 5:42 to go after a triple from Mr. Rosario.

Northport continued to have its head afloat, 97-94, by the 2:26 mark.

TNT would seize the lead, 98-97, on a Jayson Castro jumper with 1:42 remaining but it was answered by Kevin Ferrer with a triple 10 seconds later to give Northport the lead back, 100-98.

Mr. Rosario would not let the KaTropa to be down too long as he hit a triple with 1:07 left to push his team ahead, 101-100.

Northport sued for time after to set up a play but it proved to be futile as Sean Anthony’s drive to the basket failed to draw a deuce.

TNT tried to build on their lead after but was foiled by the Northport defense.

The Batang Pier then fashioned an attack to get the lead back but they too could not complete their thrusts with attempts by Messrs. Ferrer and Ammons not going through.

Northport still tried to pick up the win but two made free throws by Mr. Rosario with 1.7 seconds gave TNT more breathing space.

Mr. Anthony had one last shot to tie the game but his three-point attempt only hit the front iron to preserve the win for the KaTropa.

Also finishing in double digits for TNT was Roger Pogoy who had 17 points with Mr. Castro and Don Trollano adding 10 apiece.

For Northport, which slid to its fourth straight defeat following the loss to TNT, it was Mr. Lanete who top-scored with 23 markers, going 5-of-7 from three-point land.

Mr. Ammons had 14 points and 13 rebounds while Robert Bolick and Mr. Taha adding 12 and 10 points, respectively.

NU averts collapse to beat FEU in OT

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo
Senior Reporter

THE National University Bulldogs staved off a major meltdown in UAAP Season 82 action on Wednesday at the Smart Araneta Coliseum, defeating the Far Eastern University Tamaraws, 85-79, in overtime to book their second win in the tournament.

Lost their grip on an 18-point lead in the third period, the Bulldogs (2-7) had to dig deep after being forced to overdrive by the Tamaraws (4-5) to give what has been a rough University Athletic Association of the Philippines campaign for them some needed boost.

Also winning yesterday were the University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers, who routed the erstwhile rolling University of the East Red Warriors, 101-73, to stop a two-game losing skid.

Dave Ildefonso starred for NU in its salvage job over FEU, tallying a double-double of 27 points and 11 rebounds.

John Lloyd Clemente also stepped up for the Bulldogs, finishing with 15 points, including a couple of triples at the end of regulation and in OT to help his team to be in a position to win.

The Bulldogs were holding a comfortable 18-point, 53-35, in the third before the Tamaraws made their move back.

FEU, on the lead of Alec Stockton and Royce Alforque, outscored NU, 20-3, in the first eight minutes of the final canto to take a 67-65 lead.

But the Bulldogs were able to survive the onslaught by holding on and seeing the game go into overtime.

In the extra period, NU was able to redeem itself, churning out eight straight points in the early goings to hold a 79-71 lead, but the Tamaraws refused to quit, with Ken Tuffin cutting the lead down to four, 83-79, with 24.7 ticks left.

They would not get any closer than that though as the Bulldogs went for the closeout after.

Incidentally, with the win, NU swept FEU in their season series, after also claiming their first-round encounter, 61-39, on Sept. 25.

“We just came back to basics. What was the formula? Going back to basics and staying in level one,” said NU coach Jamike Jarin after their win.

For FEU, the loss stopped for it a two-game ascent and dropped it outside of the top four as of the moment.

Barkley Ebona paced the team against NU with 15 points and 12 rebounds with Alforque and Ino Comboy adding 11 points each.

UST HALTS SKID
Meanwhile in the second game, the Tigers (5-4) put an end to their two-game slide with a dominant showing over the Warriors (3-6).

Firing on all cylinders right from the get-go and contributions coming from different sources, UST was just a handful for UE, with the game already decided as early as the first half and the Tigers on top, 55-29.

Zach Huang led the UST juggernaut with 22 points, going 6-of-8 from beyond the arc.

Soulemane Chabi Yo also had 22 points to go along with 14 rebounds with Sherwin Concepcion and Brent Paraiso adding 10 points each.

For UE, which saw its winning run stopped at two, it was Alex Diakhite who led with 24 points, followed by Neil Tolentino with 11 and Philip Manalang and Rey Suerte with 10 apiece.

San Sebastian out to fortify spot in the Final Four

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo
Senior Reporter

THE San Sebastian Stags return to National Collegiate Athletic Association Season 95 action today looking for a win that could well secure for them a Final Four spot.

To take on the Mapua Cardinals in the scheduled 4 p.m. game at the FilOil Flying V Centre in San Juan City, the Stags (9-6), currently at fourth spot in the race for the playoffs, are out to notch win number 10, which should be enough to earn a ticket for the next round of the ongoing season of the country’s oldest collegiate league.

As things stand entering today’s matches, only the Cardinals (7-8) and the College of Saint Benilde Blazers (7-8) still have a chance of making it in the top four in Season 95.

But a loss by Mapua today to the Stags would mean the end of its Final Four hopes as the most wins it could get after would be nine.

The same goes for the Blazers if they lose to the league-leading San Beda Red Lions (16-0) in the preceding 2 p.m. game today.

In such an event that Mapua and CSB lose, the idle Letran Knights (10-6) also earn a spot in the semifinals.

The other team already assured of a Final Four berth are the second-running Lyceum Pirates (12-4).

San Sebastian did its cause a favor with a gutsy win over Lyceum, 73-71, on Tuesday that put it on the cusp of the Final Four.

Allyn Bulanadi led the charge for the Stags, who trailed for much of the contest, as they pulled the rug from under the erstwhile streaking Pirates.

The league’s leading scorer, Bulanadi finished with 28 points and dished out the winning assist to teammate Romel Calahat with 5.2 seconds left for the go-ahead basket.

Veteran RK Ilagan had 11 points while Alvin Capobres added nine for the Stags.

“This is a big win. Thanks to God. We did not have a good start but the boys showed character allowing us to get the win,” said Stags coach Egay Macaraya after their win.

Looking to stop the Stags and keep their playoff hopes alive are the Cardinals, who have slowed down of late by losing back to back after winning four straight previously.

The most recent of Mapua’s losses was dealt by San Beda, 83-55, on Oct. 4.

Laurenz Victoria is leading the way for the Randy Alcantara-coached Cardinals with 11.4 points per contest, followed by Noah Lugo (11.2 ppg) and Paulo Hernandez (10.7 ppg).

Pole vaulter Obiena eyeing a solid campaign at SEA Games

ALREADY assured of a spot in next year’s Olympic Games in Tokyo, pole vaulter EJ Obiena said he is now channelling his focus on having a solid campaign at the 30th Southeast Asian Games, which the country is hosting from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11.

Currently the holder of the 10th best cleared height of 5.81 meters, Mr. Obiena, 23, said he recognizes that he is touted as the favorite to win gold in the biennial regional sporting meet but is not getting ahead of himself and vowed to put in the needed work.

“I may have the slight edge but it’s a competition. Anything can happen. Hopefully I can be the one standing on top of the podium holding the Philippine flag,” said Mr. Obiena during the Philippine Sportswriters Association forum at the Amelie Hotel Manila on Tuesday.

“What I can do is do what I can. I will do my best to win the SEA Games gold. It’s our home country. It’s going to be a shame if I lose and I know that,” he added.

Mr. Obiena is looking to dislodge Thailand’s Porranot Purahon as the reigning champion of the event, scheduled to be held on Dec. 7 at the New Clark City. Mr. Purahon cleared 5.35 meters to win gold at the 2017 SEA Games in Malaysia.

In the last edition of the SEA Games Mr. Obiena was not able to compete after suffering an ACL injury in the lead-up.

Mr. Obiena was the first to qualify for Tokyo 2020 by making the cut in a qualifying tournament in Chiara, Italy, early last month where he notched his current best 5.81 meters.

He was joined on Tuesday by gymnast Carlos Edriel Yulo as the two Filipinos so far to qualify for the Olympics next year. Mr. Yulo qualified by doing well at the 49th FIG Artistic Gymnastics World Championships in Stuttgart, Germany. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

Brave CF defers Manila event, goes to Romania instead

WHAT was supposed to be Brave Combat Federation’s second Manila event later this year is no longer happening after the promotion decided to defer it and play Romania instead.

In an announcement shared to media late on Tuesday night, Brave said that due to “unforeseen circumstances” it made the decision to move its 28th show from the Philippines to Romania, where it will be making its debut.

The Romania event will be co-promoted with top local organization Real Xtreme Fighting on Nov. 4 in Bucharest.

Despite the postponement of its Manila return, Brave reiterated that it was still committed to engaging the Philippine mixed martial arts scene, which it said it values as a market especially since it is home to world bantamweight champion Stephen “The Sniper” Loman of Team Lakay.

Brave made its Philippine live show debut on March 1.

It was headlined by Mr. Loman, who successfully defended his title by stopping challenger Elias “Smile” Boudegzdame of Algeria in devastating fashion in the fourth round.

Brave officials raved about the good turnout and reception that its first show in Manila had, even calling it “the best Brave show” so far.

“It’s the greatest event I have witnessed, the best Brave yet. I really enjoyed it even if I was preoccupied with a lot of things for much of the time. The fans were great, the people were great. And I could not wait to come back here and stage another event,” said Brave CF President Mohammed Shahid in an interview after the event.

For its Manila show, Bahrain-based Brave CF partnered with ESPN5 as its official broadcaster. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

How did Radjabov do it?

FIDE World Cup 2019
Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia
Sept. 9–Oct. 4, 2019

Result of Finals (winner in bold)

Teimour Radjabov AZE 2758 vs. Ding Liren CHN 2811 6-4

7-round 128 player Knockout event

Time Control: 90 minutes for the first 40 moves, then 30 minutes play-to-finish with 30 seconds added to your clock after every move, starting move 1

Teimour Radjabov defeated Ding Liren 6-4 in the finals to win the 2019 World Cup. He had to survive a grueling 25-day event with games everyday and only two one-day breaks. Round about the 15th day of competition the participants were already complaining about exhaustion and this was only the halfway point!

Before we go into the point I am making, let us do a quick review of Teimour Radjabov.

As perhaps the BW reader will recall Radjabov was a child prodigy — born 12 March 1987, he earned the International Grandmaster (GM) title in March 2001 at the age of 14, the second-youngest in history at the time. He was really a chess phenomenon not only for of his results but also for the beauty of his play. In 2003 he beat the-then World No. 1 Garry Kasparov in spectacular fashion in the famous Linares tournament, winning the brilliancy prize for that game as well. This was a really big deal at that time for Kasparov had been undefeated in five consecutive Linares tournaments before losing to Radjabov and has not lost a rated game with White in seven years, and never lost one again.

Kasparov, Garry (2847) — Radjabov, Teimour (2624) [C11]
20th Linares (2), 23.02.2003

1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.e5 Nfd7 5.f4 c5 6.Nf3 Nc6 7.Be3 a6 8.Qd2 b5 9.a3 Qb6 10.Ne2

This move, allowing Black to close the center, is pretty common now but back in 2003 the usual continuation was 10.Be2 cxd4 11.Nxd4 Bc5 12.Rd1 etc.

10…c4 11.g4 h5 12.gxh5 Rxh5 13.Ng3 Rh8 14.f5!? exf5 15.Nxf5 Nf6! 16.Ng3

[16.exf6 Bxf5 17.fxg7 Bxg7 18.Rg1 Bf6 I prefer Black]

16…Ng4 17.Bf4 Be6 18.c3 Be7 19.Ng5 0–0–0 20.Nxe6 fxe6 21.Be2 <D>

POSITION AFTER 21.BE2

21…Ngxe5!?

Probably not the best, but enough to confuse Kasparov.

22.Qe3!?

Not the best:

22.dxe5 is wrong because of 22…d4 23.cxd4 Rxd4 24.Qc1 (not 24.Qe3? Rf8 25.Bg5 Bxg5 26.Qxg5 Qa5+ and Black mates) 24…Na5 25.Be3 Nb3 26.Bxd4 Qxd4 27.Qd1 Qe3 28.Qc2 Bh4 Black is clearly winning;

Correct is 22.Bxe5! Nxe5 23.dxe5 Bc5 (23…d4 24.0–0–0 and White has survived the opening) 24.Bg4! Be3 25.Qe2 d4 Black is still attacking but everything is far from decided.

22…Nd7 23.Qxe6 Bh4 24.Qg4?

White should have picked up the d5 pawn 24.Qxd5.

24…g5! 25.Bd2

[25.Bxg5 Rdg8]

25…Rde8 26.0–0–0 Na5 27.Rdf1?

A mistake as now Kasparov’s king has to go back to the center where it once more becomes a target.

27…Nb3+ 28.Kd1 Bxg3!

Radja wants to play …Qg6 to threaten …Qb1 with dire consequences for White, but if he does it right now White can block it with either Qf5 or Nf5, so first he gets rid of the g8–knight.

29.Rf7

There is no good way to capture the bishop:

29.hxg3 Qg6! 30.Bc1 (30.Qf5 is not posible because of 30…Qxf5 31.Rxf5 Rxh1+) 30…Qb1 31.Qxg5 Nxc1 32.Qxc1 Qe4 attacking the bishop on e2 as well as the rook on h1. Black is winning.;

29.Qxg3 Qg6 30.Bc1 Qb1 31.Qxg5 Rhg8 32.Qf4 Re4 33.Qh6 Rxe2!

29…Rd8!

[29…Qd6 allows White to complicate: 30.Bxg5 Bxh2 31.Rf6 Qc7 32.Bf3 Kb8 33.Rxa6 White still has chances to hold]

30.Bxg5

[30.Qxg3? Qg6 attacks the rook and also threatens Qb1]

30…Qg6 31.Qf5

[31.Rf5 Rde8]

31…Qxf5 32.Rxf5 Rdf8 33.Rxf8+ Nxf8 34.Bf3 Bh4! 35.Be3 Nd7 36.Bxd5 Re8 37.Bh6 Ndc5! 38.Bf7 Re7 39.Bh5 Nd3 0–1

Later on that same year he defeated former World Champions Anand and Ponomariov to show that he was not a “flash in the pan.” Several more successes followed and in November 2012 he achieved his peak rating of 2793, good enough to be ranked no. 4 in the world.

All this changed though when he played in the Candidates’ Tournament of 2013. The Azeri GM finished last with a 1 win 6 draws and 7 loss score. This affected him psychologically for he had never been beaten this badly before and afterwards he started limiting his appearances to two or three tournaments a year.

So, when he arrived in Khanty-Mansiysk for this year’s World Cup no one expected him to win. After all, Radja was basically semi-retired and is not expected to be in his best form. When the competition started though the former child prodigy had a strong performance from start to finish, not losing a single game until the 2nd game of the finals against Ding Liren, and even then avenging that loss right away. Before reaching the final against Ding, Radjabov defeated two of the so-called chess-elite who get invited to all these high profile tournaments — Shakhriyar Mamedyarov and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, and he stopped the challenge of the younger players in the persons of Daniil Yuffa and Jeffery Xiong, who until they met him were having their own stronger performances.

So how did he do it? How did he take all his skill, lock it up in a freezer, and take it out for the World Cup tournament?

The short answer, opening theory. He would only play in top tournaments like Wijk aan Zee or the FIDE Grand Prix events where his opponents will be very highly rated. That way, agreeing to draws wouldn’t harm his rating too much. Then Radja never stopped working hard on his opening theory and, when playing, using a safety-first strategy, frequently choosing forced theoretical lines to avoid any nasty surprises.

And it did not hurt that he had a great positional feel and a sharp eye for tactics — these never left him. Last Tuesday I showed you his Marshall Attack win over Ding Liren where he was still within his opening preparation on move 29 (!). Against Vachier-Lagrave he was winning by move 10! Then in an earlier column I showed you how he slipped through the cracks and defeated Mamedyarov with a sudden tactical resource.

Now we will look at his win over Daniil Yuffa, beautiful positional play.

Radjabov, Teimour (2758) — Yuffa, Daniil (2577) [B11]
FIDE World Cup 2019 Khanty-Mansiysk (3.1), 16.09.2019

1.e4 c6 2.Nf3 d5 3.Nc3

The Two Knights’ Variation, Bobby Fischer’s favorite weapon against the Caro-Kann.

3…Bg4

As Bobby Fischer explained in his annotations to his draw with Petrosian in the 1959 Candidates’ Tournament, the purpose of the Two Knights’ line is to exclude the Classical 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 dxe4 4.Nxe4 Bf5 line.

How’s that again? Let me explain. Here in the Two Knights if Black now continues 3…dxe4 4.Nxe4 Bf5? (4…Nf6 is correct) 5.Ng3 Bg6? (5…Bg4 6.h3 Bxf3 7.Qxf3 had to be played) 6.h4! h6 7.Ne5 Bh7 8.Qh5 g6 9.Qf3 Nf6 10.Qb3 White wins material. This trap has come up more than a hundred times in the international tournament circuit, sometimes even involving grandmasters.

4.h3 Bxf3 5.Qxf3 e6 6.Be2

Another possibility is to offer the sacrifice of a pawn by 6.d4 dxe4 7.Nxe4 Qxd4 8.Bd3 but perhaps this is not suitable for a big-money tournament like the World Cup.

6…Bc5 7.0–0 Ne7 8.Qg3 0–0 9.d3 Nd7 10.Kh1

Obviously intending f2–f4–f5.

10…f5!?

Which is why Yuffa goes ahead with his own f-pawn advance.

11.Bg5 Bd4 12.Qd6 Bf6 13.f4

[13.Qxe6+? Kh8 14.Bd2 (14.Bxf6 Rxf6) 14…Nc5 in both cases the white queen is caught in a trap]

13…Rf7 14.Bxf6

[14.Qxe6? Nc5]

14…Rxf6 15.e5 Rf7 16.d4

White obviously has an edge now because his pieces have more scope, but he has to harness that extra maneuverability quickly before Black can regroup.

16…Nc8 17.Qb4 Qb6 18.a3 c5 19.Qxb6 Ncxb6 20.Nb5 Re7 21.b3 cxd4 22.Nxd4 Nc5 23.g4 Ne4 24.Rg1 Rf8 25.gxf5 exf5 26.h4 g6 27.Rg2 Kf7 28.h5 Rh8 29.Rag1 Ree8 30.a4 a6 31.a5 Nd7 32.c4!

This is better than 32.e6+ Rxe6 33.Nxe6 Kxe6.

32…dxc4 33.e6+ Rxe6 34.Bxc4 Nf8 35.hxg6+ hxg6+ 36.Rh2 Rg8 37.Nxe6 Nxe6 38.Rh6 Nf2+ 39.Kg2 Ne4 40.Kh2 Nf2 41.Bxe6+ Kxe6 42.Rhxg6+ Rxg6 43.Rxg6+ Kd7 44.Rb6 Kc7 45.Kg3 1–0

Everything looks so simple, and yet only a great master can play a game like this.

 

Bobby Ang is a founding member of the National Chess Federation of the Philippines (NCFP) and its first Executive Director. A Certified Public Accountant (CPA), he taught accounting in the University of Santo Tomas (UST) for 25 years and is currently Chief Audit Executive of the Equicom Group of Companies.

bobby@cpamd.net

Simmons’ trey

By all accounts, Ben Simmons was the star of the Sixers’ preseason match yesterday. He certainly put up a heady stat line that included eight caroms and seven dimes, not to mention 21 markers off just 14 shots. For all his usual array of close-in makes, however, his most significant score came via a contested pull-up from 27 feet out. Launched with 2.3 ticks left in the second quarter of a blowout, it got leather and nylon to meet, resulting in hearty applause from the 13,407 who trekked to the Wells Fargo Center. No matter that the score was then 79-41 against the hapless Guangzhou Long-Lions, and that, despite the coverage, he faced no pressure in taking it after milking the clock close to halftime.

Considering Simmons’ nonchalance in the aftermath of his trey, casual observers would have been forgiven for deeming it par for the course. Just about everybody else knew better, though. Fellow All-Star Joel Embiid was pumped, running to him to give a hearty push. The rest of the Sixers were, too; those on the bench erupted as if they won the last game of a championship series. And why not? They understood its significance, coming from a heralded player whose myriad skills at the point were offset by one glaring weakness: He was averse to taking a shot from deep.

Indeed, Simmons has attempted just 17 three-point shots in his career spanning 5,432 minutes and 160 regular-season games. And he has been even more loathe to hoist from beyond the arc in the playoffs; through 22 matches, he has one measly try. And “try” is the operative word, because, despite the wide latitude the competition invariably gives him, he has so far laid an egg. Which was why his make yesterday was especially significant, and why it augurs extremely well for the Sixers in their quest for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. They’re contenders in any case, but his progress from long range should enable them to get to higher hear few others in the National Basketball Association can match.

No doubt, Simmons is a generational talent who impacts the Sixers any which way. That said, he has likewise been an odd fit for franchise cornerstone Joel Embiid. Given his failure to keep defenses honest with his outside shooting, his partner’s effectiveness as a powerhouse down low is contained by all the sagging. And, to his credit, he seems to have truly made strides with his shot; all the practice videos making the rounds in social media are apparently legit. Now, all that’s left for him to do is prove his capacity to deliver — again and again. Yesterday was a good start. Whether he can sustain his confidence for the games that actually matter remains to be seen.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

Peso weakens vs dollar

THE PESO traded sideways on Wednesday as the US widened its trade black list to include Chinese artificial intelligence firms.

The local unit ended at P51.79 against the greenback on Wednesday, dropping two centavos from its P51.77-to-a-dollar close on Tuesday.

The peso opened at P51.90 versus the dollar. Its weakest point was recorded at P51.92, while its intraday best was at P51.77 against the greenback.

Dollars traded on Wednesday rose to $1.23 billion against the $1.13 billion recorded on Tuesday.

“The peso weakened after the US and China both banned more tech companies which heightened worries ahead of their scheduled trade talks this week,” a trader said in an email.

“There was a narrow range trading as people await the results of the trade negotiations with some Chinese officials already in the US,” a second trader said in a phone call.

The US government widened its trade blacklist to include some of China’s top artificial intelligence startups, punishing Beijing for its treatment of Muslim minorities and ratcheting up tensions ahead of high-level trade talks in Washington this week.

The decision, which drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, targets 20 Chinese public security bureaus and eight companies including video surveillance firm Hikvision, as well as leaders in facial recognition technology SenseTime Group Ltd and Megvii Technology Ltd.

The action bars the firms from buying components from US companies without US government approval — a potentially crippling move for some of them.

For today, the first trader expects the peso to rise anew.

“The local currency might strengthen ahead of possible dovish cues from the US Federal Reserve September policy meeting minutes due to be released overnight. Exchange rates might move within the P51.70 and P51.90 range,” the first trader said.

Meanwhile, the second trader said the peso’s performance will depend on the US-China trade negotiations.

“If it’s risk-off then the peso could fall to around P52-52.20. If it’s risk-on, then it could go to the P51.50-51.70 range,” the second trader said. — L.W.T. Noble with Reuters

PSE index falls to 7,600 level ahead of trade talks

THE MAIN INDEX dropped to the 7,600 level on Wednesday as investors stayed on the sidelines in anticipation of the trade talks between United States and China.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) shed 75.47 points or 0.97% to close at 7,681.25 yesterday. The broader all shares index likewise lost 32.4 points or 0.69% to end at 4,655.99.

“Local stocks fell once again today on very light trading activity, despite reassurances on monetary policy by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, after earlier reports on the progress of US-China trade relations disappointed investors,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a mobile message on Wednesday.

Total volume was at 321.84 million yesterday with a total value of P4.8 billion, down from P6.95 billion last Tuesday.

Papa Securities Corp. Sales Associate Gabriel Jose F. Perez echoed this sentiment, saying in an e-mail: “It seems like the market’s still waiting on the results of the upcoming US and China trade talks which would determine much of the movement in the immediate term.”

Eagle Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said in an e-mail that investors are “pessimistic” with the developments and “most Asian markets followed suit including here at the PSE.”

Most Southeast Asian stock markets dropped on Wednesday, as tensions between the United States and China heightened hours ahead of high-level negotiations, denting hopes of a trade deal.

Washington imposed visa restrictions on Chinese government and Communist Party officials over abuses of Muslim minorities. The move came only hours after the Trump administration widened its trade blacklist to include some of China’s top artificial intelligence startups.

High-level talks between the world’s top two economies on trade are due to resume on Thursday. The negotiations, which are the global markets’ most important catalyst for months, have weighed on investor sentiment.

Singapore shares were on track to snap two sessions of gains, dragged by industrial and financial sectors.

Bucking the sombre mood, Vietnam index traded marginally higher.

Back home, all sector indices tallied declines at the end of trading. Holding firms fell 99.9 points or 1.3% to 7,539.14; services went down 14.49 points or 0.95% to 1,498.96; and mining and oil dropped 84.65 points or 0.92% to 9,073.02.

Industrials went down 71.51 points or 0.67% to 10,523.33; financials dropped 11.58 points or 0.64% to 1,780.83; and property slid 24.49 points or 0.6% to 4,019.42.

Decliners edged up advancers, 114 to 60, while 58 names were unchanged.

Foreigners turned net sellers on Wednesday, with net outflows totalling P1.87 billion, a reversal of the net purchases worth P5.21 million recorded on Tuesday. — Denise A. Valdez with Reuters

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