THE Philippines was the least likely to benefit from the United States-China trade war out of 13 Asia-Pacific economies, Japanese banking group Nomura said in a report, which assessed their first quarter trade performance.

In its “Emerging Markets Special Report” published June 3, the Japanese bank said the Philippines was 22^nd on the list of potential beneficiaries from the trade tensions out of 50 economies studied.

The economy that benefitted most from the trade diversion was Vietnam with a potential boost of 7.9% to gross domestic product (GDP).

Following Vietnam was Taiwan at 2.1%, Chile at 1.5%, Malaysia at 1.3% and Argentina at 1.2%.

Vietnam and Taiwan benefitted mainly from additional US imports while Chile, Malaysia and Argentina gained mainly from additional China imports.

Meanwhile, the boost to Philippine trade was equivalent only to 0.1% of GDP.

The Philippines’ US imports are estimated to have risen 0.2% as a result of the trade war, Nomura said.

Meanwhile, trade with China associated with import substitution declined 0.1%..

The Nomura report also found that the loss to China (-0.5% of GDP) is more than the loss to US (-0.3% of GDP), in line with the higher share of US exports in China’s GDP.

Among the regions, Asia, except China, and the Americas, except the US, are the biggest gainers, with Asia benefitting more from additional US imports representing lost Chinese orders, and the Americas gaining more from additional Chinese imports representing lost US orders.

In a study last year that selected trade war gainers, Nomura said the Asian countries that will benefit most are Malaysia, Japan, Pakistan, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam.

The 2018 Nomura report is in line with the findings of a United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report which estimates that, of the $250 billion in Chinese exports subject to US tariffs of 25%, a full 82% will be captured by firms in other countries, 12% will be retained by Chinese firms and only 6% will be captured by US firms.

The UNCTAD study expects the Philippines to capture about 3.2% of the trade diverted from US and China.

Economists and analysts have also said the Philippines stands to gain in the trade war in the short term, citing possible relocations of directly affected firms.

However, the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), the country’s second biggest investment promotion agency, has said the Philippines is missing out on investment opportunities due to uncertainties surrounding the government’s push to alter the fiscal incentives regime.

PEZA Director-General Charito B. Plaza said she has met with about 20 firms, mostly from China, inquiring about the possibility of transferring operations here. Some, however, have already transferred elsewhere. — Janina C. Lim

THE House of Representatives and the Senate ratified on Monday the proposed measure granting a renewable energy distribution franchise to Solar Para Sa Bayan Corp. (SPSBC).

The two chambers separately ratified the bicameral committee report on House Bill 8179 allows SPSBC to “construct, install, establish operate and maintain” distributed energy resources and microgrid systems for 25 years.

SPSBC is controlled by Solar Philippines President Leandro L. Leviste, the son of Senator Loren B. Legarda.

The measure was ratified by the Senate over the objections of Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian.

“My objection is based on a substantive insertion in the Bicam Report that will negatively affect the power industry because of the implementation of this franchise,” said Mr. Gatchalian in his speech.

He added, “This insertion is in the definition of an underserved area, which will now include areas ‘where electricity services have been interrupted at least twelve (12) times in the twelve (12) months preceding the date of the determination that such area is underserved.’”

The bill authorizes the company to supply remote, unviable, unserved, or underserved areas in thirteen provinces.

These are Aurora, Batangas, Bohol, Cagayan, Camiguin, Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental, Isabela, Masbate, Misamis Occidental, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, and Tawi-Tawi.

The bill acknowledges that SPSBC is not entitled to “any government subsidy” in setting rates, while empowering the Energy Regulatory Commission to set its rates. — Vince Angelo C. Ferreras

THE Luzon grid went on yellow alert for six hours Tuesday as power reserves thinned.

In an advisory, the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) said the yellow alert on the country’s largest power grid was in effect between 10:00 am to 4:00 p.m. yesterday.

The grid’s available capacity stands at 11,746 megawatts, while peak demand is at 10,831 megawatts, according to the NGCP.

A yellow alert signifies that power supply is approaching critical levels.

The NGCP had not provided details on the alert by deadline time yesterday.

NGCP yesterday reported emergency power interruptions affecting the franchise area of Camarines Sur III Electric Cooperative, Inc. at 3:00 to 5:00 p.m., citing the shutdown of the Naga-Iriga 69 kilovolt (kV) line as requested by Gallintina Inc. for the reconnection of the new Gallintina dressing plant.

Scheduled power interruptions were also expected in parts of Quezon province on June 8, from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM, due to corrective and maintenance work on the Gumaca-Progreso 69 kV Line and Gumaca-Atimonan 69 kV Line.

Specific areas suffering outages will be determined by the Quezon I Electric Cooperative Inc.

The NGCP also advised of scheduled power interruption in parts of Davao de Oro (Compostela Valley), Davao del Norte, and Davao Oriental, specifically the franchise areas of Davao del Norte Cooperative Inc. and Davao Oriental Electric Cooperative, Inc, on June 15 from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM. This is due to the repair and maintenance of structures along Maco-Banaybanay 69kV Line.

Specific areas affected will be determined by the electric cooperatives. — — Janina C. Lim