How PSEi member stocks performed — August 16, 2019
Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, August 16, 2019.
Lex Talionis: in a time of a shooting war
President Rodrigo Duterte’s order to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to give the New People’s Army (NPA) tit for tat” is notable on several levels. It is perhaps the first time in the Philippines since American General Jacob Smith and Japanese Geneneral Masaharu Homma were here, that a commander-in-chief or a military commander has ordered “tit for tat,” “Do it to them also,” and “give them what they deserve” against the enemy. Whatever way this is interpreted and implemented by the military, and counter-attacked by the NPA, the result can only be an unfortunate further escalation of the armed conflict and (counter-)insurgency-related killings.
It actually conjurs something the President wants to avoid per his last State of the Nation Address, although said in a different context: “A shooting war is grief and misery multiplier. War leaves widows and orphans in its wake. I am not ready or inclined to accept the occurrence of more destruction, more widows and more orphans, should war, even on a limited scale, break out.” The thing is, the NPA probably feels the same way as he did when he also said — but again in a different context — “It is also exasperating that there are times when I think that perhaps it is blood that we need to cleanse and rinse away the dirt and the muck that stick to the flesh like leeches.”
The sad reality is that both sides of our shooting war already made a decision in late 2018 to primarily pursue such a kind of a war. The Duterte administration has decided on what it calls a “paradigm shift,” embodied in Executive Order No. 70, not to negotiate with the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP)-NPA-National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDF) top leadership but to instead defeat or neutralize it politically and militarily at sub-national levels — ironically, based on the security establishment’s assessment of the CPP-NPA-NDF’s strategy with the peace negotiations “not to pursue real peace but to meet their objective of overthrowing the legitimate government.”
Given what it considers to be the “US-Duterte fascist regime,” the CPP-NPA-NDF strategy under his remaining term is to reprise the largely successful CPP-NPA-NDF armed resistance against the “US-Marcos dictatorship.” CPP founder and NDF Chief Political Consultant Jose Ma. Sison said last April: “There can be no genuine peace negotiations… while Duterte remains in power… It is obvious to the Filipino people and their revolutionary forces that they have no choice but to concentrate on intensifying the people’s war for a people’s democratic revolution.” So, a shooting war it will be for at least three more years. But even war has its limits — believe it or not — though easier said than done.
President Duterte appears to recognize this, even with his order to the AFP to give the NPA “tit for tat.” This is reflected in his statement to the NPA referring to its apparent torture and summary execution of four captured police intelligence operatives on July 18 in Ayungon, Negros Oriental, which has become his casus belli (an event justifying war): “You have gone too far… You cannot do it unrestrained, unbridled, uncontrolled… I will not allow it.” Neither should he allow, much less order, it to be done by his security forces. And with more reason for any legitimate government with professional military and police forces. The President seems to have caught himself in time by also saying “Maybe we wanted [to] as a revenge. But since we are government and you have to have morals to prop us up. Otherwise, we are no different from the barbarians like them.”
Well, President Duterte is not a “barbarian” but a fratman (some say, the real barbarians), a member of Lex Talionis Fraternitas, Inc. Sodalitas Ducum Futurorum of the San Beda College of Law (today’s politically correct law school). It is uncanny because Lex Talionis happens to be “the law of retaliation” developed in early Babylonian law, particularly the Code of King Hamurabbi (1792-1750 B.C.), and present in both biblical and early Roman law that punishment should resemble the offense committed in kind and degree. It is referred to in the Bible’s Old Testament three times as “An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth,” but is repudiated by Jesus in the New Testament. It is so obviously morally wrong because you cannot right a wrong by committing another wrong. It is also morally and legally wrong to follow illegal orders — like an order to torture and summarily execute (extra-judicially kill, or “salvage”) captured enemy combatants. There is an arguable right for soldiers or even rebels to refuse to obey any illegal military orders of their commanders.
There is no place for Lex Talionis or “tit for tat” in the modern world. What we already have instead is international humanitarian law (IHL) or the law of armed conflict or war, the core of which is the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the 70th anniversary of which we commemorated on Aug. 12. The President is aware of this, as shown when he referred again to the NPA: “They are not fighting a conventional war. They are not obeying the Geneva Convention.” While the NPA is not fighting a conventional but instead a guerrilla war, it is still bound by IHL, particularly on non-international armed conflict, just like the AFP is in its counter-guerrilla war. As it is, both sides are on record to say they adhere to IHL and human rights in general and to the Geneva Conventions in particular. Let your continuing shooting war then be also a contest, if you will, in adherence in both word and deed, in both letter and spirit, to the Geneva Conventions, in the best interests of the civilian population caught in your crossfire AND of your respective causes.
Stated otherwise, real adherence to IHL serves not only civilian protection but also enhances your military discipline and popular support. Your shooting war is ultimately not about body count but rather about winning hearts and minds. Take to heart and mind this first among The Soldier’s Rules: “Be a disciplined soldier. Disobedience of the laws of war dishonors your army and yourself, and causes unnecessary suffering; far from weakening the enemy’s will to fight, it often strengthens it.” Barbaric, including “tit for tat,” behavior in war is counter-productive and self-defeating.
On the other hand, the renowned IHL scholar Hans-Peter Gasser teaches us: “… humanity in time of war… respect for IHL helps lay the foundations on which a peaceful settlement can be built… The chances for a lasting peace are much better if a feeling of mutual trust can be maintained between the belligerents during war. By respecting the basic rights and dignity of [fellow humans], the belligerents help maintain that trust… IHL helps pave the road to peace.” Ironic though it may seem, following the rules of war is one of the paths to peace.
Soliman M. Santos, Jr. is a Judge of the Regional Trial Court (RTC) of Naga City, Camarines Sur. He is a long-time human rights and IHL lawyer; legislative consultant and legal scholar; peace advocate, researcher and writer, whose initial engagement with the peace process was with the first GRP-NDF nationwide ceasefire in 1986, particularly in his home region of Bicol, a long-time rural hotbed of the communist-led insurgency. He is the author of a number of books on Philippine peace processes, including his latest How do you solve a problem like the GPH-NDFP peace process? (Siem Reap, Cambodia: The Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, 2016).
An idea for Isko: urban ecozones
Manila Mayor Isko Moreno has been rightly hailed for reclaiming public space by removing illegal vendors plying their trade by occupying streets and sidewalks. However, some critics have pointed out that these vendors are merely trying to earn a living and would suffer tremendously if they were removed or relocated.
It need not be an either-or situation — either the public gets back the spaces it needs or the vendors go hungry. The truth of the matter is that many of these illegal vendors are engaged in a form of disguised underemployed. Since there are few jobs in the city offering formal wages and benefits, they have to make their own jobs by being an informal service worker or entrepreneur. Hence, be an illegal vendor.
Illegal vendors are what constitute most of the jobs in our service-led economy. Although technically they have “jobs,” they live below the poverty line or are skirting its edge. They don’t enjoy secure regular wages and formal benefits like Social Security. Incomes are tenuous and unstable.
This type of worker or self-employed won’t go away. Not until there are enough good jobs where they can enjoy regular wages. In truth, “Endo” workers are in a better place than they are because “endo” workers still get benefits and wages, although only up to six months.
We can expect the number of these illegal service workers or unemployed to increase, perhaps adding to the population in congested slums and crime-infested areas. Why? Because manufacturing in the Philippines is weak, constituting only about 20% of the GDP, having contracted from 24% in another era. Manufacturing is where the good paying jobs are. Not surprising because productivity (and hence pay) in manufacturing is higher than in services in general. While manufacturing enjoyed a brief renaissance under former President Aquino, it’s faltering under President Duterte, for a variety of reasons, from the threats against “endo” to the uncertain tax regime, which is affecting Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) manufacturers.
The biggest culprit of all, however, is our high entry level or minimum wages (which is close to average wages) and unreasonable and restrictive labor security regulations (“permanency” after a mere six months). We have driven away labor-intensive industries like garments and light manufacturing to other countries such as Vietnam when our unemployed and underemployed represent a quarter of our labor force. In other words, we have a lot of people idle but investors don’t want to hire them because of government-mandated high entry level wages and labor security regulations. Investors go to Vietnam or Bangladesh instead. This is the essence of the contradiction hampering our industrialization.
Back to Isko. Why not adopt the idea of urban ecozones? The idea, if implemented successfully, will: a.) give jobs to the unemployed and to illegal self-employed, such as illegal vendors; b.) raise the city’s tax base; and c.) be a magnet for more investments in the city. In other words, win, win, win.
Start by designating a space within Manila as an urban industrial ecozone, maybe in Tondo. Build the necessary infrastructure for mini-factories to function:, i.e. streets, lights, water. Maybe even build the light factory buildings and investors could just bring in the light machines (like sewing machines) to start operating but charge them rent. Maybe even give them a tax break from city taxes. But here’s the key: to really attract labor-intensive industries, give them some relief from the high minimum wages with some form of wage subsidy. Mayor Isko already got the city to give Manila college students P1,000 monthly. Why not extend the concept to wage workers? After all, wage workers are also learning on the job. The public benefit is even larger: This keeps idle people off the streets, gives workers dignity, and will make investors flock to Manila as a place to put up factories and do business. In other words, it’s a form of CCT or the Conditional Cash Transfer program, only this time, the subsidy is not to the poor to send their children to school, but to the unemployed and underemployed to give them a job so they can support a family.
Wage subsidy is the key because labor-intensive manufacturing won’t thrive given the country’s high nominal minimum wages. (No thanks to noisy labor unions who comprise a mere 3% of the labor force and their grandstanding populist political patrons). The city government could even further improve workers’ welfare by encouraging investors to import and sell cheap rice directly to the wage workers, making use of the recent rice importation liberalization law .
The subsidy could be phased out in time when workers’ productivity has increased, and the capitalists can now shoulder the added wages. Manila can finance this program from a loan from the World Bank or an increase in property taxes.
In order to make factories in the urban economic zone even more competitive, the city government, together with the National Housing Authority, can provide dormitories or public housing so that workers don’t waste money and time commuting to work.
If urban ecozones work, then there’s no more need to relocate squatters to far off areas in Rizal or Cavite where they don’t stay because of a lack of livelihood. Light manufacturing and cottage industries will see a renaissance in Manila, helping to end its blight and pockets of poverty and hopelessness.
Cleaning the city and reclaiming public spaces is a good first step for Mayor Isko to revive the glory of Manila. However, without an economic base, its revival will not be sustainable. Economic vitality can’t be built on tourism alone or on gambling revenues. Only labor-intensive light manufacturing and cottage industries can absorb the hundreds of thousands of unskilled and semi-skilled people leaving the countryside for the city.
Mayor Isko could be the unDuterte. President Duterte built his national reputation by making Davao attractive to investors when he reduced crime and insurgency, albeit allegedly by violating human rights. On the other hand, Mayor Isko, who himself came from the slums, could make Manila attractive to investors with economically innovative and socially progressive policies. If he does so, politically, the sky’s the limit for Mayor Isko.
Calixto V. Chikiamco is a board director of the Institute for Development and Econometric Analysis.