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Fauci expects tens of millions of coronavirus vaccine doses at start of 2021

WASHINGTON – Drugmakers will likely have tens of millions of doses of coronavirus vaccines in the early part of next year, Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases official, said in a Reuters interview on Wednesday, offering a more conservative view of the ramp up than some Trump administration officials.

Fauci said there could be a billion vaccine doses available by the end of 2021, and that he is hopeful the world could get past the pandemic that has claimed more than 700,000 lives worldwide by then, with the help of a vaccine.

U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said last month the U.S. would have hundreds of millions of vaccine doses by early in 2021.

Those goals are only possible because drugmakers have agreed to manufacture large supplies of their vaccines even before they know whether they work in order to save time.

“The federal government has put more than one egg in the basket,” Fauci said. “We have a pretty comprehensive portfolio that’s going to subsequently be going into clinical trials.”

He said there might be an indication that at least one vaccine works and is safe by year end.

“I’m cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine that’s effective enough to get approved,” he said.

That will not happen because of any pressure to have a vaccine available in time for the Nov. 3 presidential election, he said. Health regulators have promised “they are not going to let political considerations interfere” with the need to deliver a safe COVID-19 vaccine, Fauci said.

Fauci’s interview with Reuters came on the same day Trump said in an interview with Fox News that the virus is “going away. It will go away like things go away.”

Fauci offered a more mixed assessment, saying some parts of the country had done well in containing the spread of the virus, while others were “on fire.”

“I hope, and feel it’s possible, that by the time we get through 2021 and go around for another cycle that we’ll have this under control,” he said.

The United States is committed to spending billions of dollars on vaccines being produced by companies including Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Inc, Pfizer Inc , Novavax Inc and Sanofi SA, employing a variety of technologies.

Fauci said he did not favor one approach over any other.

“All of them look pretty good,” he said. “The proof of the pudding is the randomized placebo controlled trial.” — Reuters

Hiroshima marks 75 years since atomic bombing in scaled-back ceremony

TOKYO – Bells tolled in Hiroshima on Thursday for the 75th anniversary of the world’s first atomic bombing, with ceremonies downsized due to the coronavirus and the city’s mayor urging nations to reject selfish nationalism and unite to fight all threats.

Though thousands usually pack the Peace Park in the center of the Japanese city to pray, sing and offer paper cranes as a symbol of peace, entrance was sharply limited and only survivors and their families could attend the memorial ceremony.

The city said the significance of the anniversary of the bombing that killed 140,000 people before the end of 1945 had prompted its decision to hold the ceremony despite the spread of the virus, but taking strict precautions.

“On August 6, 1945, a single atomic bomb destroyed our city. Rumor at the time had it that ‘Nothing will grow here for 75 years,'” said mayor Kazumi Matsui.

“And yet, Hiroshima recovered, becoming a symbol of peace.”

At 8:15 a.m. on Aug 6, 1945, U.S. B-29 warplane Enola Gay dropped a bomb nicknamed “Little Boy” and obliterated the city with an estimated population of 350,000, where thousands more died later from injuries and radiation-related illnesses.

On Thursday, as cicadas shrilled in the heavy summer heat and the Peace Bell sounded, the crowd stood to observe a moment of silence at the exact time the bomb exploded.

“When the 1918 flu pandemic attacked a century ago, it took tens of millions of lives and terrorised the world because nations fighting World War I were unable to meet the threat together,” Matsui added.

“A subsequent upsurge in nationalism led to World War Two and the atomic bombings. We must never allow this painful past to repeat itself. Civil society must reject self-centered nationalism and unite against all threats.”

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attended as usual, but the number of foreign visitors was down. Overall attendance was scaled back to less than a tenth of the usual figure, with chairs spaced far apart and most people wearing masks.

Matsui urged Japan to ratify a 2017 United Nations pact banning nuclear arms, but Abe avoided any direct reference, saying Japan would “work as a bridge between nations” to abolish nuclear weapons.

Keiko Ogura, who was eight when the bomb blast knocked her off her feet, has dedicated her life to working for peace.

“The nuclear danger is spreading around the world, and under that mushroom cloud, no one can escape,” she told a recent news conference.

The anniversary was a top trending topic on Japanese Twitter as most users offered prayers for world peace, although one drew a parallel with this week’s huge blast that killed at least 135 in Beirut, the Lebanese capital.

“I really hadn’t been able to imagine it before, but looking at the damage from the Beirut explosion and imagining something several times more powerful, I was struck with a huge sense of fear,” wrote the commenter, identified as “Sato-san.”

The bombing of Hiroshima was followed by the bombing of Nagasaki on Aug. 9, instantly killing more than 75,000 people. Japan surrendered six days later, ending World War Two. – Reuters
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Nationwide round-up

Lawyers’ group file another petition vs anti-terrorism law

THE GROUP Concerned Lawyers for Civil Liberties filed another petition at the Supreme Court seeking to nullify the new law that expands the definition of terror crimes. Leading the petitioners are former vice-president Jejomar C. Binay, former senator Rene A.V. Saguisag, and former University of the Philippines Law dean Pacifico Agabin. Joining them are Edre U. Olalia, president of the National Union of Peoples’ Lawyers, Adamson College of Law Dean Anna Maria D. Abad, lawyer Anacleto Rei A. Lacanilao III, John Wesley School of Law and Governance Dean J.V. Bautista, University of Cebu School of Law Professor Rose-Liza Eisma-Osorio, and lawyer Emmanuel R. Jabla. The 66-page petition argues that the Anti-Terrorism Act is unconstitutional and void for vagueness and overbreadth. “The Anti-Terrorism Act of 2020 fails miserably to protect and preserve the guaranties of human rights and civil liberties enshrined in the Constitution and therefore must be struck down,” the lawsuit read. Aside from the “chilling effect” brought by the vagueness of the terms in the law, it also gives law enforcers “unbridled discretion in carrying out its provisions and becomes an arbitrary flexing of the Government muscle.” The law, which took effect July 18, is being questioned in now more than 20 petitions before the country’s highest court. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Online monitoring system on waste management launched

AN online monitoring system that will track the compliance of local government units (LGUs) to the solid waste management law has been launched, the Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) announced Thursday. In a statement, EMB Director William P. Cuñado said they will summon 307 environmental monitoring and enforcement officers stationed across the country to utilize the new system of reporting that is faster and simpler than the old method. The system provides real-time reporting and creates an avenue for a quick response by the LGUs, which are mandated to enforce Republic Act No. 9003 or the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act. “With the newly improved system, we can quickly post, share and keep track of reports and complaints more efficiently. Our counterparts in LGUs can immediately view the report and act on it.” Mr. Cuñado said. Meanwhile, Mr. Cuñado said the EMB has fully shifted to the online processing of clearances and permits as part of measures to help mitigate the spread of the coronavirus by lessening physical contacts. “The system, which was originally developed as an internal document tracking system, has now largely evolved and will include in the loop, LGUs and other stakeholders to better serve its clients and the public, especially in these uncertain times,” he said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Regional Updates (08/06/20)

Gov’t launches centralized COVID-19 referral station for Metro Manila

A CENTRALIZED referral station for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients was launched Thursday to improve the management of hospital beds in Metro Manila, the epicenter of the outbreak in the country. The One Hospital Command Center, located at the MMDA headquarters in Makati City, will handle the distribution of patients to all private and public medical facilities with allocated COVID-19 beds. “This system will help the government in efficiently overseeing the coordination of referral of patients across all health facilities and ensure we have enough hospital beds for moderate to severe COVID-19 cases,” Secretary Carlito G. Galvez, Jr., chief implementer of the COVID-19 response program, said during the launching ceremony. Metro Manila, or the National Capital Region, accounts for more than half of the country’s total cases at over 64,000 as of Aug. 6, with more than 26,000 categorized as active. The center may be reached through mobile numbers 0919-977-3333 or 0915- 777-7777, landline number 886-505-00, or through the PureForce Citizens App. — Gillian M. Cortez

2nd round of franchise application opens for Davao City bus routes after 2 firms fail to qualify

THE GOVERNMENT has opened another round of franchise applications for three bus routes in Davao City after two Mindanao-based companies failed to qualify. In a circular dated Aug. 5, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB)-Davao Region office said new applicants have until 9 a.m. of Aug. 20 to submit their documents for evaluation, which will start the same day and to be completed within seven days. The routes up for grabs under the interim bus service are Toril, Catalunan Grande, and Diversion Road. The first round of application proceedings was completed July 17, where two companies — Bachelor Express, Inc., and Davao Metro Shuttle Corp. — both failed “to comply with all the requirements,” according to the LTFRB memo signed by Regional Director Armand B. Dioso. The second round of application is open to “non-area based applicants.” The interim bus service is part of the Davao City government’s High Priority Bus System, which aims to deploy around 1,000 units, replacing 7,000 public utility jeepneys in 29 routes around the city.

Hundred Islands expands visitor base to all Pangasinanresidents; Bolinao open to Region 1 locals

THE HUNDRED Islands National Park in Alaminos City will be open to all residents of Pangasinan starting Aug. 8, the local tourism office announced on Thursday. The protected area resumed operations on July 1, but was limited to those from Pangasinan’s 1st District towns. There are now 43 establishments around the area with a provisional permit to operate following inspection by the Department of Tourism and local government for compliance to health safety standards. For inquiries and bookings, contact the city government through its Facebook page @AlaminosCityTourism, e-mail alaminoscitytourism@gmail.com, or call 0998-5975153/09178286592. The entire Pangasinan province is under the modified quarantine category, where tourism facilities are allowed to operate at 50% capacity. Another coastal town in western Pangasinan, Bolinao, is also open to local tourists from Region 1 provinces that are under the modified quarantine category. For guidelines, visit www.bolinaotourism.com or their Facebook page.

2 Negros Oriental bays positive for red tide

THE BUREAU of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) has warned consumers from eating shellfish collected from Tambobo Bay in the town of Siaton and Bais Bay in Bais City — both in Negros Oriental — after the two areas tested positive for red tide contamination in the latest sampling. In a shellfish bulletin, BFAR said the bays join other red tide positive areas such as the coastal waters of Dauis and Tagbilaran City in Bohol; Cancabato Bay in Tacloban City, Leyte; Balite Bay in Mati City, Davao Oriental; and Lianga Bay in Surigao del Sur. All types of shellfish and Acetes sp. or alamang collected from these areas are unsafe for human consumption. Other marine species harvested in the area are safe to eat. “Fish, squid, shrimp, and crab are safe for human consumption provided that they are fresh and washed thoroughly, and internal organs such as gills and intestines are removed before cooking,” BFAR said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

ERC orders local governments to allow meter reading in lockdown areas

THE ENERGY Regulatory Commission (ERC) asked local governments to allow utility meter reading activities in areas reverted to a strict lockdown. The uninterrupted conduct of meter reading would allow distribution utilities to bill their customers based on actual consumption “in order to avoid possible bill shocks,” the regulator said in a statement on Thursday. Power distribution firms, meanwhile, were directed to provide transportation and logistical needs to readers who should perform their duties in full personal protective equipment. Areas under strict quarantine rules from Aug. 4 to 18 are Metro Manila and the surrounding provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna. For its part, Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the Philippine’s biggest distribution utility catering to about seven million customers, said it will continue meter reading activities, while it requested the same plea of permitting their readers to enter locked-down areas. “Rest assured this will be unobtrusive and the deployed meter readers will be in complete personal protective equipment, bearing in mind safety procedures,” Meralco Spokesperson Joe R. Zaldarriaga said in a statement on Wednesday. — Adam J. Ang

Signs and wonders

In the March 21 issue of the Chicago Booth Review, Richard Baldwin of Geneva’s Graduate Institute, wrote that “minimizing disruptions to workers and businesses will be expensive. (But) it’s worth it.”

We cannot disagree more. Instead, public authorities must choose quick wins that “keep the economy’s lights on without worrying too much about costs.”

Baldwin proceeded from the premise that the “medical shock is transient.” So far, global evidence is strong that it is not.

The reality is that the shock has assaulted the G7 nations and China, all at the same time. The attack is not only sporadic. It is broad based. It is not confined to one or two markets in the same way that a banking crisis originates in the banking system, or that an exchange rate crisis is birthed in the FX market and central bank reserves.

The current crisis is not as simple.

A series of community quarantines has resulted in several medical and economic paradoxes. Economic activities have ground to a halt, forcing creativity, digital platforms and new business models to revive them.

Pervasiveness of the virus, reported to be less potent but more infectious, has drastically changed social norms. Just last year, we would never have imagined that to enter a bank, masks would be required, or that everywhere, security guards would have temperature scanners in their holsters.

In a publication, Economics in the time of COVID-19, Baldwin together with Beatrice Weder di Mauro, identified three familiar COVID-19 shocks: 1.)  workers confined to their sickbeds, paralyzing potential spending; 2.) restricted productive activities and travel because of public health mitigation measures; and, 3.) general business reticence.

Baldwin concluded with the advice to “keep the lights on.” He went on to say that the accumulation of “economic scar tissues” must be reduced. To do so, the “number of unnecessary personal and corporate bankruptcies must be reduced.” He proffered that people must have money to keep spending even if they are not working; “a side benefit of this would be to subsidize the sort of self-quarantine that is needed to flatten the epidemiologic curve.” 

There are two problems with Baldwin’s formulation. 

The first problem is social. We have not yet even healed. We cannot yet boast of “economic scar tissues.” We are still wounded. We are still bleeding. Baldwin believed that the medical shock would dissipate shortly, that even with mortalities, the workforce would not be reduced significantly or permanently. But, this is not the case as death is permanent. And many deaths have already ensued and families are in mourning.

The second problem is economic. Economic scar tissues appear only after an economic recession. Restarting the economy by granting people money to spend in a lockdown is anachronistic. Money can only keep people alive if they can go out and buy something to eat. Thus, a subsidized self-quarantine will only very slightly help “bend” — but not really flatten — the curve. 

Baldwin also endorsed the proposal of a group of economists led by Paris School of Economics’ Agnes Benassy-Quere (VoxEU.org, “COVID-19: Europe needs a catastrophe relief plan”). The  proposal is premised on four partially overlapping phases. The Europeans believed Phase 1 or the China shock would only be good for the first quarter. Phase 2 covers sectoral disruptions in tourism, air transport, hospitality and entertainment starting in February (with a rather small expected impact). Phase 3 was to start in early March in Italy, but in the second quarter for the others. During this phase, there would be acute overall disruption because of broad-based strict measures like travel bans as well as shutdowns of public transport and schools. Phase 4 is sweet recovery. 

In their analytical framework, recovery was projected as early as May or June. By now, this assumption has been rendered extremely unrealistic. The writers however were correct in qualifying that their assumptions would only hold true sans the hysteresis of: “confidence effects; lost corporate income in the services sector; bankruptcies among SMEs; credit constraints from the accumulation of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets; and the rebuilding of dented savings at the household level.” 

In the Philippines, Phase 4 is a pipe dream as the coronavirus is still alive, rampaging and kicking, with the epidemiological curve refusing to be flattened. It is too early to talk about economic scars. Just like the rest of Asia, the US, and most of Europe, a sharp rebound or a V recovery may not be likely precisely because of hysteresis. 

Therefore, it would be premature, perhaps incurably optimistic, to pin hopes on one or two green shoots, or to conclude that because the second quarter was the “worst hit by the pandemic,” that the third and the succeeding quarters would be more bearable. Regardless of the standards used, yesterday’s announcement of the Philippines’ real GDP decline of 16.5% for the second quarter 2020 is certainly a very deep wound that would take time to heal.

As infections continue to rise, and as the rest of Southeast Asia predicts us to be its COVID-19 hotspot, has our curve already peaked? Without a national plan to strategically test, trace, and treat, can we really say — both in terms of the pandemic’s social and economic impact, “that the worst is over?”

We would love to be proven wrong. Like many of us, we always say a prayer for our country and people. The past two miserable quarters are now behind us; left and right of us many economies have claimed initial victories over the pandemic; ahead of us remains unclear. The best way is to be strategic and work hard and seek favor from above.

Indeed there are red flags ahead. There have been reversals in key economic and financial market indicators. Leading indicators like purchasing managers’ index, business and consumer expectations, bank credit and liquidity growth are not looking up. Lagging indicators are not suggesting resiliency; corporate failures have become rampant in the airline industry, food and beverage industry and retail trade. Bank profits are way down. Factory output in volume terms declined in June for the fourth time. This is also reflected in the flat sale of energy in July.

In the food industry, while Century Pacific was in good shape with over P2 billion in net income for the first six months of 2020, Jollibee sustained a P10 billion net loss in the second quarter. By the end of this year, Jollibee expects to slash its number of stores by 416 or 7%. While it is reengineering, this loss will also translate into job and income losses for many. The economic scar will be felt even beyond 2020.

Mainly in power, water and infra, Metro Pacific profits dropped 63% following the disruption brought about by the viral pandemic. It is good for Metro Pacific to continue making investments “that will help the Philippine economy recover.” Its president and CEO was also wise to clarify that this will be executed without incurring additional leverage. Otherwise, the wounds will take more time to heal; the scars will even be thicker over time.

This is the reality of hysteresis. Even after the health emergency, there could still be a protracted struggle. The economic scars will prevent resumption of our pre-crisis economic path. The wounds may be deepest in the second or third quarters, depending on the ability of the authorities and civil society to be one in implementing a strategic plan of action against the virus during this two-week lockdown. This will help bolster consumer and business confidence and mitigate hysteresis. More confidence will break the debilitating effects of reticence; and stop the relentless assault of the pandemic on life and livelihood.

While monetary policy seems to have maximized its space, fiscal policy has more mileage. Debt and deficit metrics remain robust and therefore, for 2021, a higher budget is proposed for health and economic recoveries. An early passage of the budget is extremely critical. Unnecessary distractions should be avoided.

Against the potential havoc of a prolonged hysteresis, good, judicious and sustainable fiscal expenditure should be supported. While funding for the electoral exercise in 2022 could also help stimulate the economy, some of its extraneous component is the least of spending we need at this time.

Vantage Point

PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte has placed the National Capital Region and outlying provinces under modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) supposedly in response to the plea of healthcare workers to do just that. But that was only part of their suggestion — they also asked that the government reassess its anti-pandemic strategy. Such a reassessment was glaringly absent in Mr. Duterte’s fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) delivered on July 27, despite the surge in the number of Filipinos afflicted with the disease.

Required by the Constitution, the President’s delivering a SONA every year is not the meaningless, merely customary ritual some think it to be. If done right, it would be a report to the Filipino people on the country’s current situation. It provides a ruling administration the opportunity to present to the nation its plans to address the challenges before it, and to enable it to move forward.

As head of state and the country’s chief executive with access to the information and the expertise needed in navigating the complex waters of governance, the President is presumably in the best position to identify what problems as well as threats and opportunities face the nation. Even more crucial is identifying the steps needed to solve the country’s problems, addressing the threats to it, and using to its advantage whatever opportunities are available. The SONA thus includes the President’s legislative agenda: his recommendations on what bills the legislature has to draft, file and pass into law.

Like many other well-intentioned practices in government, the SONA has become a mostly political exercise. But it should ideally be a sober and sobering appraisal of what is happening to the country and its people even during those times that one can loosely and uncritically describe as “normal.”

One can argue that such times, if there have been any at all, have been rare and far between in this country of unending crises — in which widespread violence, political instability, poverty and hunger, inequality, human rights violations, injustice, ignorance, corruption, criminality, abuse of power and institutionalized oppression are afflictions so widespread they practically define the daily lives of millions of Filipinos.

If even in such times a SONA should be a non-partisan and objective analysis of the country’s situation and problems and how to address and prevail over them, the more urgent is the need for it during these unquestionably abnormal times.

The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest threat to the well-being and lives of the people, and addressing it should be the first priority of every government official from the President to the lowest-ranking civil servant. As the number of those infected breached 100,000 and will very likely surpass it; as the millions who have lost their livelihoods are unable to feed clothe, shelter and educate their children; and as hunger stalks the poorest communities, the 2020 SONA was an opportunity to unite a divided population and allay its fears by demonstrating that government has the will, the means and the vision to control the pandemic enough for the economy and the disemployed, impoverished and hungry millions to recover from the devastating consequences of the contagion.

Despite that need, President Rodrigo Duterte devoted in his fifth SONA only a few minutes to the continuing threat of COVID-19. One can therefore understand the alarm, frustration and disappointment of those who have been saying that by devoting more time to ranting against ABS-CBN and the Lopezes and Senator Franklin Drilon; threatening to expropriate Globe and Smart Telecommunications; and urging the restoration of the death penalty rather than providing the country a clear understanding of the Philippine situation, Mr. Duterte only exposed how ineffectual his administration has been in curbing the pandemic and presiding over the country’s economic recovery. In addition, what he did not say as much as what he did in his address also spoke volumes about the distressing state of governance and its impact on what is going on in these isles of uncertainty.

In the brief five minutes when he began his address, it seemed that Mr. Duterte would depart from the sound and the fury that usually characterize his public utterances, and that after four long years he was at last going to be Presidential. That hope was soon dashed to pieces as he once more launched into his accustomed tirades, described himself as a 2016 “casualty” of ABS-CBN despite his winning the presidency that year, and ended his address by again attacking Drilon and accusing him of wrongdoing and hypocrisy.

He claimed to have the preservation of human life as his priority, but in almost the same breath urged Congress to restore the death penalty. He did present a legislative agenda that seems intended to revive the economy, but by threatening Smart and Globe Communications with expropriation so soon after his regime’s harassment and persecution of the Lopezes, sent the business community a message the Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) correctly warned is likely to have a chilling effect on both local and foreign investors.

The closest he came to acknowledging his administration’s failure to reduce the number of COVID-19 infections and to produce any semblance of an economic recovery blueprint was a reluctant admission that it has had “difficulties.” But he presented no coherent plan of action to address them on the basis of a fact-based analysis of the last six months’ experience and the lessons learned from it. Neither did he say anything about addressing such major concerns of healthcare workers as the inadequacies of healthcare system equipment and facilities, the critical shortfall in the number of nurses, doctors, and other medical frontliners, and most hospitals’ being full to the rafters with COVID-19 patients.

Mr. Duterte instead beguiled his constituency with the promise that the Philippines would have first priority in getting a vaccine from China, a concession that he said he had managed to wangle from that country. That he had earlier declared that the West Philippine Sea is Chinese “property” naturally leads to suspicions that the promise of a vaccine is his reward for surrendering to it the Philippines’ rights to its own territorial waters and resources.  

He also claimed to be for the human rights he has a number of times declared he does not care for. But he said not a single word about how his and his Congressional cohorts’ so-called Anti-Terrorism Law will savage such Constitutionally guaranteed freedoms as free expression and the right to due process. And he certainly gave no accounting of how his administration spent the billions allotted for the pandemic and the much hyped but much criticized and corruption-ridden Social Amelioration Program.

From what he said as well as what he did not, one can only conclude that the entire country and its 108 million population should be in precisely the state of panic that Mr. Duterte keeps saying they shouldn’t be.

Some Filipinos dispose of their garbage by burning or throwing them into the nearest estero. Many get help and even the justice they cannot get from the government from the media’s public service programs. As Mr. Duterte’s spokesperson at one point suggested, following those examples of do-it-yourself initiatives, that it is now up to every citizen rather than the government to  protect himself, his family, and his neighbors from the many ills Filipino flesh is heir to. Everything else is sound and fury, signifying little — or nothing.

Using the time out to clock in

The current time-out, granted at the request of the medical community, is a gift that should not be squandered. If we continue to do the same things that were done in the past, we may be doomed to a continuing loop of time-outs, without any real hope for winning against COVID-19. Now is the time to put changes into place — using principles of behavioral economics (nudge) instead of heavy-handed police enforcement (punch), executing triage at home rather than in the hospital, using research and data to guide decisions and innovate instead of relying on impulse and intuition.

Because COVID-19 continues to evolve with new strains, we have to make sure our policies adapt as well. With mutation, the disease has become more infectious, but not necessarily more lethal. However, we must make ordinary people, not medical personnel, the first line of defense. For all the messaging about the advantages of wearing masks, the latest revelation is that masks can act like a vaccine, creating a barrier to COVID-19 viral exposure. At lower levels of infection, people who are infected tend to be more likely mild or asymptomatic.

Our overworked medical workers can get the time out they need if we are able to keep mild or asymptomatic cases quarantined safely at home rather than being brought to the hospital (where they may not be accommodated anyway). Because a mild case manifests itself with flu-like symptoms, it is best, at this point, to isolate at home for two weeks, and call a doctor to monitor you through telemedicine. Having an oximeter at home is crucial so you can monitor your oxygen saturation rate (a rate below 92 means you have to go to a hospital).

But the more important aspect of these two weeks is to finally do what we should have done in the past quarantine, as well as re-evaluate our current responses. Here are some suggestions:

1.  Create more ICU Beds

Because COVID cases are increasing, severe and critical COVID-19 cases continue to rise as well. They now represent 1.5% of total active cases. These cases need ICU beds. There are 525 ICU beds (at 77% occupancy as of Aug. 3) in NCR out of 1,400 nationally. We need to build the beds now. It cost P14 million at our hospital to outfit a 26-room wing for negative pressure ICU capacity. The time it took to construct was one month. The total cost for 525 more beds is around P283 million.

2.  Re-think Testing

The appeal to do mass-testing has, unfortunately, been interpreted to mean any test will do, and this has resulted in the unintended consequence of having individuals who had been deemed negative via antibody testing, spreading COVID-19. Rapid antibody test kits proliferated because demand was driven up by businesses using this test as a condition for employees returning to work. Unfortunately, these tests do not catch the virus, only the antibodies. Antibodies emerge on Day 8 of the disease, when those who have the virus are no longer that infectious. They also miss at least 50% of those infected who do not have antibodies yet but have the virus. The requirement for rapid antibody tests has also led to more corruption in the healthcare system, especially given the inconsistency with which LGUs and corporations have applied return-to-work rules.

3.  Empty Non-urgent COVID Beds

Patients can be sent home earlier, and they should be encouraged to do so. The average stay for a COVID-19 patient at our hospital had been 20 days. This can be cut in half; by day 10, they are no longer infectious. We had an asymptomatic 96-year-old lady by exposure who went through two swabs by Day 14, with a request that she be kept longer until PCR-negative. At that point, she was clearly still shedding virus but noninfectious. Fortunately, the patient’s family cooperated in bringing her home.

Doctors have to cooperate in this nudge. LGU’s and communities need to change their return acceptance policy so as not to overburden our very limited testing capacity. The US Centers for Disease Control advises that people can leave isolation 10 days from onset without having to wait for a negative test. 

4.  Use the Cooperative Model for PPE Purchases

At our hospital, PPEs cost around P600-700/set, consisting of an N95 Mask, isolation gown, green gown, earloop mask, booties, head cap, face shield or goggles, and nitrile gloves. On April 1, the Department of Health (DoH) announced the expected arrival of PPE sets procured for P1.8 billion, or P1,800/set. That’s three times what we paid for ours.

The One Hospital Group, composed of NCR public and private hospitals led by DOH Undersecretary Dr. Leopoldo Vega, has a better appreciation for purchasing economies for PPEs and equipment. This can include even medicines with proven efficacy like remdesivir (currently in short supply globally ) and dexamethasone. They should be properly empowered to manage supply requirements, pricing and logistics, for the NCR hospital ecosystem.

5.  Properly Fund the Whole of Health Care

Much has been discussed about the current crisis of PhilHealth, but the institution is an important and crucial element in the survival of the medical care industry. Here are changes that should be considered:

•  Refocus reimbursements on in-patient support. Let the private sector fund its own testing, however wasteful the rapid antibody test kit exercise was. As stated earlier, the cost of doubling NCR ICU capacity is (only) P283 million. But it is a strategic element of what the lockdown was

originally set to do — give the health sector a reprieve to catch up, particularly for the severe and critical immuno-compromised cases, which are causing the hospital shutdowns. If we miss out on health capacity planning (once again), we shut down the economy (once more).

•  Recapitalize Philhealth. By going overboard on testing, whether it be on PCR or rapid antibody, at the expense of treatment, we not only underinvest in physical capacity, but also threaten private hospitals’ financial viability. Our hospital is already out-of-pocket over P500 million, awaiting Philhealth reimbursement, and not just for COVID-19. There are other private hospitals in the same boat. Because collections have floundered with businesses shutting down and OFWs given pay-in waivers, Philhealth finances need to be reset.

•  Let Philhealth allow balance billing. Since private hospitals, which comprise two-thirds of the hospital sector, are not supported with equipment and facility budgets by the government and have to pay their own way, Philhealth should allow balance billing for COVID-19 cases. Part of the problem here is that Philhealth case reimbursement rates are based simply on pneumonia, thereby understating the impact of COVID-19 on other organ complications.

•  Incentivize COVID-19 disclosures. Since this is a two-week disease, why not announce a P3,000 shelter subsidy for targeted high-infection areas, based on symptom-based assessment by a clinician, using other basic tools like a temperature scan, oximeter, and chest X-ray, maybe with a confirmatory PCR swab if results are available in 24 hours (otherwise forget it). This can ferret out the mildly symptomatic, with an accompanying option (doctor’s discretion) to  community quarantine if space isolation is an issue. Contact tracing for the exposed will naturally follow suit (but without the subsidy).

Since this whole disease began, there have been over 100,000 COVID-19 cases. Flushing out another 100,000 in high-infectious areas to reduce cluster transmission risk through disclosure incentives costs but P300 million. This compares with the P1 trillion reduction in GDP and 5  million loss of jobs for 45 days’ lockdown.

6.  Stop the Spread, not the Economy

Distance between persons and duration of exposure are two elements critical to controlling COVID-19 spread. Already among the longest and hardest lockdowns in the world, the NCR shut down its emergent public transport system once again from Aug. 4-18. Totally.

Research about the infective aspect of public transport, however, suggests that with proper management, public transport can remain open. The key is to reduce crowding. Pre-COVID-19, there were 15 million passenger trips daily within the NCR. Theoretically, there should be double the number now, for social distancing purposes.

Work-from-home, shelter at home for the elderly, and children not going to school cuts trips by at least one-third. As part of a hurry-up plan, the NCR bus fleet can also be increased by 2.5 times, to 12,000 units, and run on two shifts, also saving jobs for displaced jeepney transport workers.

Buses can move twice the number of passengers as jeeps, and 15 times the passengers of cars. We can raise transport fares and let the market seek going-to-work equilibrium under the new normal and ensure that there will be no crowding on public transport and much less traffic. 

In fact, if the national government changes its strategy to stagger work hours from 5 a.m. to 9 p.m., the private sector will follow, with more service and public-sector jobs created. Job creation is a notch above direct transfers as a preferred economic stimulus tool.

J. Xavier B. Gonzales is the Chairman of The Medical City.

Being Right

Philosopher Philip Devine recently wrote about today’s most pervasive ideology: “covidism.” It has two elements: “scientific fundamentalism and a fallacious argument from fear.” The former claims that “those who question the [COVID-19] ‘consensus’ are anti-science or guilty of ‘denial.’” The latter references “an irrational appeal to fear [that] ignores other sources of danger and urges us to take precautions with unexamined costs.”

 This leads us to another term Professor Devine used: “Coronaphobia,” which “has generated a perverse morality, for which staying home and watching Netflix is an act of heroism like that of the soldiers who fought in the invasion on D-Day. Avoiding fellow human beings, even crossing the street to avoid them, and wearing a mask when you cannot avoid them, is an expression of solidarity.”

For how long? “Until it is ‘safe’ — which may mean forever.”

By now, it’s become clear that this pandemic was driven more by fear rather than facts. The irrationality of is such that we’re in perhaps the only pandemic in history where otherwise healthy people are quarantined for a virus that (at least for the Philippines) is less deadly than car crashes, tuberculosis, diabetes, hypertensive diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pneumonia, cancer, ischemic heart disease, and malnutrition.

And that’s just a partial list.

We actually shut down our economy and schools, perhaps driving up depression and suicides, for that.

The devastation that lockdowns bring were not, understandably, apparent at first. Hence, the semi-humorous contemplation of a surge of “pandemic babies” as a result of this in-house quarantine. That couples, locked together in their homes with nothing else to do, would spend most of their time procreating.

But apparently, 148 days into this lockdown, the opposite might actually be true.

A study published in The Lancet on July 14 found that “that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth.”

Furthermore, it stated that “23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China’s population was forecasted to decline … [and] the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098.”

This is interesting because Philippine fertility rates have continuously fallen (even before the RH Law took into effect). Example: 2017 saw a 3.4% decline from 2016, 2018 fell 3.52% from 2017, 2019 fell .97% from 2018, and 2020 fell .98% from 2019.

Marriage in the Philippines itself is on shaky grounds. Philippine Statistics Authority data indicates a steady decline from 2007 to 2016 (albeit, 2017-2018 showing with relative increases). Annulments meanwhile increasingly rose from 2001 to 2014. 

The entire psychological and social effect of this lockdown, as well as the porn panic that governments and media wrought on the citizenry, remain to be seen. But this early, dating may already have taken a hit.

A Journal of Personality and Social Psychology research study (Miller and Maner, “Overperceiving disease cues: The basic cognition of the behavioral immune system,” 2012, reported in The Conversation) “has shown  that the threat of disease leads us to avoid contact with people who compromise our well-being and pose a risk of infecting us. Yet romantic behaviour is generally characterised by a need for physical intimacy and bodily contact which is very much at odds with behavior motivated to remain free of disease. Dating behavior could clearly be altered while concerns of an infectious disease continue to affect the way we live.”

The point is: in today’s world of virus-induced home isolation, of conscious ultra-hygiene, self-righteous distancing, with everyone’s minds conditioned to believe that merely speaking to or eating a meal with another are lethal, what could possibly be left for the romantic or sexual?

“These are the lips, powerful rudders pushing through groves of kelp, the girl’s terrible, unsweetened taste of the whole ocean, its fathoms: this is that taste,” wrote Adrienne Rich in “That Mouth.”

And yet with every individual hidden behind layers of masks and face shields, and touching is taboo, exposed mouths are now as pornographic as sexual organs and the shaking of hands as scandalous as the most torrid of kisses.

Sex is messy. If it isn’t, you’re probably doing it wrong. Stephen Fry once wrote of “those damp, dark, foul-smelling and revoltingly tufted areas of the body that constitute the main dishes in the banquet of love.”

But it’s there, the fact that such is another human being, is precisely where sex’s repulsion and attraction lies, that make the entire gamut of sexuality a fascinating world unto itself.

Nevertheless, perhaps it’ll be the other way around. Perhaps rather than be disgusted with love and sex, this pandemic may lead people to each other. One Finnish study (Kunal Bhattacharya , et. al., 2016) found evidence through data mining that — indeed, for people — absence really does make the heart grow fonder.

Well, at least we know science isn’t useless.

Jemy Gatdula is a Senior Fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence.

Beyond Brushstrokes

Past, present, future.

Time as we know it is linear. In the cosmic dimension, it is always present.

In my mind, time is circular.

For a long period, the dark moments and long nights seemed endless.

The dreams — monochromatic shades of black, charcoal gray, a blur of pewter haze and shapeless shadows.

The angst was sharp, searing.

Grace from the divine beamed to uplift the spirit.

The brilliant sunset and afterglow are still dramatic in the mind’s eye.

The first brushstrokes are tentative, vulnerable.

Starting anew after a drought is a cathartic process of fire and heat. The elements of purification — for brilliant diamonds and precious metals, are the same for elements of artistic creation.

At first, one begins with muted tones of deep and light blue then there are splashes or bright colors — pink, red, orange. The colors emerge from deep within the heart. A burst of inspiration flows — to paint, to write, to compose, to create again.

New colors ignite the imagination and stir the dormant passion.

Dawn will wash across the once dark velvet sky with pastel streaks of yellow gold. It is the radiance of the rising sun.

“Transcendence to dreamscapes”

“My inner journey continues

As I explore the timeless world of dreams

And the joyous colors of life.

In the silence of my heart,

I listen to the poetry

And symphony of nature.

In the realm of the spirit,

I discover infinite variations

Of the mind’s recurring visions of the future.

Nature’s images I capture as abstract prisms

And transcendent impressions.

Until a new panorama of Dreamscapes unfolds,

Reflecting a fascination with the nuances of light — radiant and luminous,

Impressions of timeless vistas

Blend with memories of the future

And déjà vu images of the past.

The inner journey evokes a poetic

symphony of abstract visions,

serenity in solitude, cosmic emotions

and the moods of life.

My flights to the transcendental real

Are rare glimpses of luminescence and infinity.

Life’s Dreamscapes these are,

Owing to Sun, the radiant source.

To diptychs of the Sun.

To Cell, the basic unit.

To mandala and squares

Settling on Arches.

As in sunrise over blue mountains

or orange sky, or blue-orange sea.

Rising, shining, setting

The cosmic cycles of dreams:

Earth, sea and sky…”

Artist’s statement by way of verse for “Life” Dreamscapes series 2007 for Chroma Text Reloaded 2007, CCP.

(Special thanks to Krip Yuson)

Impact Hackathon 2020 seeks to support innovative solutions to pressing social challenges

By Patricia B. Mirasol

Impact Hub Manila (IHM) brings back its Impact Hackathon this year in the virtual space to find and support digital innovations for current social challenges.

“Last year, I had a dream: to provide the same support we’ve been doing here and bring that outside,” said Ces Rondario, founder and CEO of IHM, a social impact incubator and network of entrepreneurs and changemakers. “We wanted to find a way to decentralize stuff we were doing here in Manila and contribute to countryside development.”

The second Impact Hackathon aims to find innovations for social challenges amid the pandemic. Set to run from August 17 to 21, the virtual event will concentrate on five themes: climate change, education, food and agriculture, health and wellness, and smart cities.

TIMELINE AND ACTIVITIES

Participating teams are expected to create minimum viable products by the end of the hackathon. Winning ideas will be incubated by IHM and its partners, who will also support the scaling of the projects to ensure impact and sustainability. Winners will take home over US$100,000 worth of prizes, including access to IHM’s incubation program and its global network of experts and entrepreneurs.

Learning sessions will serve as a platform for discussions and network-building among participants, mentors, and partners.

The hackathon will culminate with a festival titled “2050 Fest,” in which experts, industry leaders, and collaborators come together for panel discussions and the announcement of winners.

The timeline is as follows:

July 1 Opening of registration portal

Aug. 17 Opening program

Aug. 18–21 Hackathon proper and learning sessions

Aug. 22–23 Jury deliberation

Aug. 24 “2050 Fest” culmination program

Aug. 25 Announcement of national winners

Teams are advised to have someone who can pitch and effectively tell the story behind their solution.
Malcolm Tan of Technicorum Holdings Pte Ltd., one of this year’s hackathon partners, also suggested looking into international and inclusive solutions. “Don’t be just restricted by geographic location. Look beyond your borders.”

Ms. Rondario shared that they are in talks with telco partners and are looking into providing Internet support for the participants. “We want to make this as accessible as possible.” She also hopes to see more women joining the event.

SOCIAL INNOVATION CATALYST

Impact Hackathon is part of Impact 2050, a multi-year program designed by IHM to create large-scale economic impact through cultivating the Philippine startup and innovation ecosystem.

Partners from Impact Hackathon 2019 like the Quezon City government, Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Asian Development Bank, and KMC will be back to support this year’s hackathon along with new collaborators such as the Office of Senator Francis Pangilinan, iProcure, Unifinity, Salesforce, Technicorum Holdings Pte Ltd., Multisys Technologies Corporation, and TrueDigital among others. Ms. Rondario likewise mentioned the support of the Department of Agriculture, National Economic and Development Authority, Department of Trade and Industry, Department of Information and Communications Technology, and the Department of Science and Technology.

For more details, go to impact2050.com. Interested participants can register at impact2050.com/impact-hackathon.

Google pulls 2,500 China-linked YouTube channels over disinformation

Google says it has deleted more than 2,500 YouTube channels tied to China as part of its effort to weed out disinformation on the video-sharing platform.

The Alphabet-owned company said the channels were removed between April and June “as part of our ongoing investigation into coordinated influence operations linked to China.”

The channels generally posted “spammy, non-political content,” but a small subset touched on politics, the company said in a quarterly bulletin on disinformation operations.

Google did not identify the specific channels and provided few other details, except to link the videos to similar activity spotted by Twitter and to a disinformation campaign identified in April by social media analytics company Graphika.

The Chinese Embassy in the US didn’t immediately respond to a message seeking comment. Beijing has in the past denied allegations of spreading disinformation.

Disinformation seeded by foreign actors has emerged as a burning concern for American politicians and technologists alike since the 2016 presidential election, when Russian government-linked actors pumped hundreds of thousands of deceptive messages into the social media ecosystem.

Many have spent the past four years trying to avoid a repeat of 2016, with companies like Google and Facebook issuing regular updates on how they’re combating online propaganda.

The bulletin also mentioned activity tied to other countries, including Iran and Russia. — Reuters

Facebook purges ads for illegal wildlife in SE Asia as online trade surges

YANGON — An ad showing a civet cat cowering in a cage being offered for sale on Facebook was just one of hundreds that the social media giant has removed in a crackdown on Southeast Asia’s illegal wildlife trade during recent weeks.

“Not too wild, not too-well behaved. If interested, call…” the seller wrote on the post, using an account in Myanmar, a major source and transit point for the trade in wild animals.

Facebook has a ban on the sale of animals on its platform.

But, in the five months through May 2020, a report seen by Reuters showed World Wildlife Fund researchers had counted 2,143 wild animals from 94 species for sale on Facebook from Myanmar alone.

The vast majority of posts—92%—offered live animals, including birds of prey, while gibbons, langurs, wild cats, and hornbills were in high demand.

Wildlife charities said more than 500 posts, accounts, and groups were taken down in April and July after they alerted Facebook, which said its staffers remove content that breaches rules as soon as they become aware.

“We are committed to working with law enforcement authorities around the world to help tackle the illegal trade of wildlife,” a Facebook spokesperson said.

‘INCREASING IN EVERY COUNTRY’

Campaigners say the advent of zoonotic diseases like the novel coronavirus, which is suspected of having jumped from animals to humans, has not quashed demand from buyers.

Southeast Asia is a major hub in the multi-billion dollar global wildlife trade and, according to monitors, sellers are increasingly using social media due to its massive reach and private chat functions.

“It’s increasing in every country,” said Jedsada Taweekan, a regional program manager for WWF, adding that the volume of wildlife products sold online had approximately doubled since 2015.

Myanmar came under fire in recent weeks over reported plans to allow captive breeding of about 175 threatened species including tigers and pangolins. Naing Zaw Htun, a senior forestry department official, told Reuters social media had become “one of the major drivers of the wildlife trafficking,” and the aim of the captive breeding plan was to reduce poaching.

Fighting the illegal online wildlife trade poses a serious challenge for governments across the region, where many national laws lag behind, said Elizabeth John, senior communications officer for TRAFFIC, a non-government organisation.

She said Facebook had been “very proactive in trying to address the online trade” but faced a “considerable logistical challenge” monitoring posts.

A study by TRAFFIC published in early July found more than 2,489 ivory items for sale across Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam on Facebook and Instagram, which is owned by Facebook.

TRAFFIC said 557 out of 600 posts, groups and profiles subsequently flagged to Facebook were removed. WWF said four Facebook accounts and seven groups, each with thousands of members, were removed in response to their research in Myanmar.

The company says it uses a combination of technology and reports from NGOs and others to detect and remove content.

Relying on tip-offs isn’t good enough, said Michael Lwin, founder of Myanmar-based tech start-up Koe Koe Tech. “Social media platforms, in general, need a more systematic response,” Mr. Lwin said.

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