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Fitch flags emerging asset quality issues for Philippine banks amid credit growth

BSP
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas has slashed key interest rates amid slowing inflation.

AMID A supportive economic environment in the Philippines, emerging asset quality issues may be hard to spot amid rapid credit growth, according to Fitch Ratings.

In a report entitled “What Investors Want to Know: Asia-Pacific Investment-Grade Banks” published on Nov. 29, the firm said the country, alongside Vietnam, may have asset quality problems “masked by high loan growth.”

“Asset quality metrics have deteriorated moderately recently, and we expect further normalization as loans season,” Fitch Ratings’ Asia-Pacific Banks team told BusinessWorld in an e-mailed response on Wednesday.

“Nevertheless, we believe that the broadly supportive economic environment and easing interest rates should somewhat help mitigate downside risks and support borrowers’ debt servicing capacity in the near term,”

According to Fitch, a turn in the economic cycle could be a risk for banks as it could entail “higher credit costs and impairment…which could be lumpy in times of stress given the banks’ high concentration in large borrowers exposures.”

The ratings agency compared the local scenario to that of Malaysia which has more exposure to external developments and where the market also faces risks from “elevated household leverage and areas of excess property supply.”

Sought for comment, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort noted that the country indeed has a “relatively faster” loan growth in recent years which averaged “at around 15-17% and even close to +20% in 2018.”

“Faster expansion in banks’ loan portfolios may have led to a commensurate increase in NPLs (nonperforming loans) as well. Gross NPL ratio of Philippine banks has picked up to 1.66% as of September 2019, among the highest in 3 years, coming from a record low of 1.24% as of end-2017,” he said in an e-mail.

Mr. Ricafort also pointed out the “peculiar situation” of the country “with both inflation and interest rates reaching their peak by October 2018.”

“These partly caused the uptick in NPL ratio as well from the bottom in end-2017, as sharp increase in borrowing costs as seen in most of 2018 and even carried over in early 2019 tends to cause some pick up in NPL ratio, amid slower local and global economic growth largely due to the lingering US-China trade war,” Mr. Ricafort explained.

In October, inflation slowed to a three-year low of 0.8%. Meanwhile, key policy rates have been slashed by a total of 75 basis points (bps) this year, partially dialing back the 175 bps in rate hikes implemented by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in 2018.

Policy rates currently stand at four percent for the overnight reverse repurchase facility, while the overnight deposit and lending rates are at 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to report the November data inflation on Thursday. The BSP expects inflation to have fallen within 0.9-1.7% on the back of diminishing base effects and an uptick in electricity prices and meat substitutes due to the African Swine Fever that hit pork products.

Meanwhile, latest BSP data showed outstanding loans of universal banks expanded by 9.3% in October, a slower pace than the 10.5% seen in September.

Noting slowing loan growth in the Philippines, Mr. Ricafort said “growth in NPL ratio could be tempered as well with slower expansion in banks’ loan portfolios as well as the sharp reduction in borrowing/financing costs that ease the burden/strain especially on debt servicing by some borrowers.”

Meanwhile, UnionBank of the Philippines Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said Fitch’s assessment of “asset quality problems” here may “not be entirely accurate, at least from an industry standpoint.”

This, as he cited the industry’s loan growth and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) which is at around 16%.

“Industry loan growth this year is expected around 13% and approximately 8.5% of which are house consumer loans that are higher in risk of default compared to other loan types in the overall industry portfolio,” Mr. Asuncion said in an e-mail.

According to Mr. Asuncion, credit growth in the country is seen to climb to around 15% by 2020 on the back of the impact of the recent expansionary stance of the central bank.

“Note also that the industry’s CAR is at about 16%, which is at a very healthy clip, and it seems that the central bank has been on its toes and has diligently monitored the Philippine banking industry and its corresponding lending activities even as the economy continues to expand and grow,” he explained. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

Lenovo adds two new models to its ThinkBook product line

By Zsarlene B. Chua
Reporter

FOR its last hurrah for 2019, Lenovo Philippines launched two entries to its newly-introduced ThinkBook line created for “today’s young and digitally-inclined professionals who seek the perfect balance between high-end specifications and premium aesthetics in work devices.”

While the brand’s ThinkPad — known for its rugged, heavy-duty design — was traditionally designed for big enterprises, ThinkBook was created as a professional-level device for small and medium enterprises, the company said in a statement.

In August, Lenovo launched its first ThinkBook, the 13s, a 13.3-inch laptop with an Intel 8th Gen processor which goes up to i7 and can have up to 16GB RAM priced starting from P54,990.

And while the company still needs a year to get the sales numbers of 13s, Lenovo Philippines General Manager Michael Ngan noted that when they made the 13s available for retail, it “was a success.”

“Once we launched it for retail customers, we’ve been getting inquiries in the enterprise space,” Mr. Ngan said.

The ThinkBook line, as a crossover laptop, he said, is “for any consumer, especially consumers who work in companies doing BYOD (bring your own device).”

This led the company to introduce a 14-inch and 15-inch variant to the line to give their customers more options.

Both variants offer full HD (1920 x 1080) resolution anti-glare IPS panels with the screens bendable up to 180 degrees and a screen-to-body ratio of 80%.

Inside, both offer 10th generation Intel Core processors with the 14-inch having an i5-1021U processor and the 15-inch having an i7-10510U.

Both devices come with 8GB DDR4 memory and 512GB M.2 solid state drives for faster loading times. The 14-inch has Intel UHD Graphics card while the 15-inch has AMD Radeon 620 graphics card.

On the security front, the laptops have an integrated fingerprint reader on its Smart Power button.

The ThinkBook 14 is priced starting at P48,990 while the ThinkBook 15 is priced starting P57,490. For more information, visit the Lenovo Philippines website at lenovo.com/ph/en.

CHRISTMAS PROMO WITH HERSCHEL
For the holidays, Lenovo is offering a chance to get up to P30,000 worth of Herschel gift vouchers, Planet Sports gift cheques, and Lenovo accessories for every qualified laptop purchase until December 31.

Select Lenovo IdeaPad, YOGA, and Legion devices are qualified for the promotion.

Buyers of select IdeaPad 130 and 330 equipped with Intel Core i3 or AMD Ryzen 3 processors will get P3,000 worth of Herschel e-vouchers. Buyers of select YOGA devices with Intel Core i5/i7 or AMD 5/7 processors will get e-vouchers valued at P10,000. Buyers of Legion Y740 and Y540 devices will get P5,000 Planet Sports gift cheque, a Recon Backpack, and Microsoft Office 2019.

To get the vouchers, customers must submit copies of their valid IDs and the receipt via email to promos.lenovophilippines@gmail.com. An e-mail confirmation will be sent out together with the Herschel voucher code after three to five business days. The vouchers can be redeemed at lenovoexclusives.com.

Planet Sports gift cheques will be delivered to the address provided upon purchase and can be redeemed at The Athlete’s Foot, Planet Sports, Intersport, and New Balance retail stores. The vouchers are valid for regular Nike, New Balance, and Adidas items only.

Each customer can make a maximum of three purchases during the promotion and claiming of e-vouchers and gift cheques are only up to 60 days after purchase.

For more information and the complete list of participating devices, visit Lenovo PH’s Facebook page.

DoTr eyes Swiss challenge for Bohol airport O&M by Q1

By Arjay L. Balinbin, Reporter

THE Department of Transportation (DoTr) is hoping to conduct a Swiss challenge for Aboitiz Group’s unsolicited proposal for the operations and maintenance (O&M) of Bohol-Panglao International Airport (BPIA) by first quarter of 2020.

“We hope by fist quarter next year. We have yet to commence negotiations with proponent on terms of concession agreement,” DoTr Assistant Secretary Goddes Hope Oliveros-Libiran said in a phone message to BusinessWorld on Wednesday when asked about the timeline for the Swiss challenge on the project.

The Aboitiz Group, through its infrastructure arm, Aboitiz InfraCapital Inc. (AIC), had submitted the unsolicited proposal for the project which was approved by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board last week.

The Swiss challenge is the competitive bidding process where third party companies are invited to submit counterproposals to a project, which the original proponent has the right to match.

In a press release on Wednesday, the DoTr said the implementation of the proposed P3.8 billion project is expected to begin in 2020. It has a 25-year concession period.

Phase 1, which includes the initial enhancement and installation of internal fit-outs of existing facilities, will be implemented from 2020 to 2021.

The DoTr said Phase 2, which includes the BPIA’s optimization and reconfiguration, will be implemented from 2026 to 2027.

“It is our hope that this new airport will help propel development in Bohol and the rest of the Visayas,” Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade was quoted as saying in the DoTr’s statement.

Brushing up on Italian varietals

I WAS VERY fortunate to be invited to the Borsa Vini event at the Marina Mandarin Hotel in Singapore very recently. Borsa Vini, which literally means “wine bag” in Italian, is a wine event organized by the Singaporean office of the Italian Trade Agency (ITA). Now on its second edition, Borsa Vini’s objective is to be a forum where Italian wine producers wanting to sell their wines in this region can meet with potential wine importers and distributors from domestic Singapore as well as invitees from other countries in Southeast Asia, the Philippines included. This year, 29 Italian wine producers from 10 wine regions were represented.

Italy is the world’s largest wine producer, with a 19% share of the global wine production. Italy also has the largest vineyards, with over 700,000 hectares dedicated to winemaking. With 20 major wine regions divided into an astonishing 407 Vini DOP (Wines with Protected Designation of Origin), of which 332 are DOCs (Denominazione di Origine Controllata) and 75 are DOCGs (Denominazione di Origine Controllata e Garantita), Italy has by far the most number of DOPs compared to its French and Spanish counterparts. Aside from the wine regions, Italy also has the most catalogued grape varietals or cultivars, numbering around 590, compared to Spain’s over 400 recorded varietals, and France with much less than that.

While I have been going to Italy often, especially over the last five years, there is really no way I can cover even a fraction of these 590 or so varietals. It was therefore a great blessing that I got to encounter some of these seemingly strange (for us here in Asia) varietals when I attended Borsa Vini 2019. In the past, I have written articles about Italian Rosso (Red) varietals like my favorite nebbiolo, sangiovese, corvina, barbera, and dolcetto. While for Italian Bianco (White), I covered pinot grigio, garganega, arneis, ribolla gialla, cortese, and even glera, the varietal of Prosecco. For a change, see below a small list of five Italian grape varietals I just discovered thanks to the Borsa Vini 2019

BIANCO (WHITE) VARIETALS
Passerina: A grape that is cultivated mainly in the regions of Marche and Abruzzo, but also found in other regions including Emilia Romagna and Latium. The name is derived from the Italian word for sparrow “passero,” in reference to this bird’s fondness for consuming this varietal when it is ripe. I tasted the Agronika Passerina Terre di Chieli 2018 IGT, and I find the wine more on the vegetative side, like asparagus, with some peppercorn and petal elements, but very fresh with good acidity and texture, lengthy with citrus at the end. This wine should hold up very well against cream-based food. Check this winery out at www.novaripa.com.

Vermentino: A grape widely cultivated in Sardinia but also found in Tuscan, Piedmont (where it is known as favorita), and Ligurian coastal districts (known as pigato in this area). I have tried a couple of favorita wines in Piedmont, and only found out at the Borsa Vini that these varietals, vermentino and favorita are linked together. I tasted the Pedres Thilibas Vermentino di Gallura Superiore 2018 DOCG, and this is from the province of Olbia-Tempio, north of Sardinia. This wine is a nice juicy white that is quite quaffable, with flavors that include grapefruit, lime and herbal notes, and it is nicely dry and minerally at the end. This wine can be really great with fresh seafoods. Check this winery out at www.cantinapedres.it.

Fiano minutolo: Or simply minutolo, as to not be confused with another Italian grape called fiano from Campania. Minutolo is a grape that has been cultivated in Puglia since the 13th century, but was close to extinction until a group of old vintners and oenologists revived this very aromatic varietal in the Itria Valley early this century. I was also told at Borsa Vini that only seven wineries are working with this varietal at present. I tasted the Otto Cento Minutolo 2018 IGT, and it has moscato-like characteristics. The wine has fragrant tropical fruit flavors including pineapple and lychee, has fresh acid and a nice semi-dry peppery finish. Check this winery out at www.cignomoro.it.

ROSSO (RED) VARIETALS
Nero d’Avola: A grape cultivated in Sicily, nero d’Avola is also Sicily’s best known and most planted red varietal with around 18% of the vineyards or some 14,000 hectares. This varietal is making a lot of progress in export and is becoming known for its power and bold flavors. I tasted the Cutaja Nero d’Avola Riserva 2016 DOC, and this wine has a lot going on in the glass. The nose has blackberry, earth, raisin, peppercorn, cinnamon bark and all sorts of complexity. Tannins are still rigid, but as a food wine this varietal can survive with the heartiest of any meat meals. The wine has good acid structure too and ends with a lingering bitter-sweet finish. Check this winery out at www.carusoeminini.it.

Susumaniello: This is a grape varietal that is cultivated only in the Puglia wine region. It is one of the varietals that have been around for a long time in Italy but has been under the radar. Susumaniello is also a varietal used in the Brindisi Rosso DOC wine blend. I tasted the Somiero Susmaniello del Salento 2016 IGT, and this wine has an alluring red cherry nose, some leafiness, noticeable tannins, with a medium body, and a herbaceous aftertaste. Check this winery out at www.levignedisammarco.it.

Other noteworthy Italian varietals I also encountered at Borsa Vini 2019 that are actually just named differently in Italy but are in fact commercially known varietals are: traminer aromatic, which is basically gewurztraminer; primitivo, which is closely linked to Californian zinfandel and Croatian plavac mali; and connonau, which is in fact grenache.

Right now, none of these five Italian varietals I mentioned will replace our usual chardonnay and cabernet sauvignon. However, for genuine wine lovers, these varietals offer another taste profile and a uniqueness that make the wine experience exciting, fresh, and a continuing education. I highly recommend that once you see these varietals in your favorite wine shops, please buy and try them. There is always room for new wine varietals in our vocabulary.

For comments, inquiries, wine event coverage, wine consultancy and other wine related concerns, please e-mail me at protegeinc@yahoo.com. You can also follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/sherwinlao.

Kaspersky sees firms’ cybersecurity budgets increasing in 2020

A STUDY commissioned by Internet security firm Kaspersky said security budgets among businesses, as reported by 72% of survey respondents, including the ones in Asia and the Pacific region, will further increase in 2020.

However, almost half (46%) of cybersecurity leaders surveyed out of 305 respondents said competition with other departments in their companies for available resources is still a major concern among them.

The study noted that the figure is “almost as high as the growth and severity of attacks (49%).”

“This may seem like a paradox as security budgets continue to grow, but budget challenges come from multiple directions. Difficulty in distinguishing IT spending from security spending is the most-reported obstacle here (54% of respondents),” the study explained.

As for the security budgets, the study said: “Those budgets continue to grow: 72% of survey respondents report that their security budget will increase in the coming year.”

Kaspersky noted that security budgets among companies have grown “from 62% to 87% over the past four years.”

The study said these trends further reflect the increased priority that businesses are giving cybersecurity.

“As they increase their investment, it’s only natural that businesses seek to understand the rationale behind security decisions,” the study said.

To address company cybersecurity leaders’ concerns on funding, Kaspersky recommended that they may “shift from ad hoc communications to regular sync-ups with the business leadership team.” In this way, they will be able to keep the board “updated on the company’s security measures and remain aware of strategic priorities.”

Kaspersky also said cybersecurity leaders should speak in a language that top management understands.

“Make sure board members receive security training. This will not only help towards building a corporate-wide cybersecurity culture, but will also highlight the practical value and impact of effective cybersecurity measures,” the Internet security firm added.

Kaspersky said the survey featured “a strong global representation” encompassing 27 countries, with respondents distributed among the following regions: 160 respondents (53%) were from Europe, the Middle East and Africa; 65 (21%) were from Asia and Pacific countries; 55 (18%) were from North America, specifically the US and Canada; and 25 (9%) were from the Latin America region, including Mexico. — Arjay L. Balinbin

RCBC Bankard targets higher card issuance

RCBC BANKARD has already reached its initial target and is looking to issue more cards. — RCBCBANKARD.COM

RCBC BANKARD Services Corp. has reached its full-year target for credit card issuance and is eyeing grow its pool to breach the one million mark in second semester next year.

RCBC Bankard President and CEO Simon Javier A. Calasanz said the bank has issued around 190,000 credit cards as of end-October this year, which is already past its initial target of 150,000 for 2019.

Mr. Calasanz said the bank is now eyeing to end the year with 200,000 cards to bring its total issuance to 850,000.

“That will bring us as sixth in the industry. Our aim is to hit one million cards by the year 2020 — probably by second half of 2020 ma-reach na namin ’yung (we can reach) one million cards,” he told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of a company event last week.

RCBC’s credit card arm was able to expand its portfolio by focusing on the 20 million Filipinos that are considered bankable but have no access to credit, Mr. Calasanz said in an earlier interview.

Last July, he said the lender is targeting to issue five million cards over the next 20 years, largely expanding to the non-card debt segment.

Currently, he said the market in rural areas has been very receptive of their drive to reach the unbanked sector, adding that half of their new applications came from those in the provinces.

Mr. Calasanz admitted that the credit card industry has not been inclusive in the past as banks typically offer credit to those who have existing credit history.

“In Bankard, we believe that even at a young age, even people with smaller incomes… As long as you educate them in financial literacy, they can use credit cards responsibly — and that something that we’ve been doing over the past four years,” he said.

As the lender expands to the new-to-credit sector, he said RCBC Bankard still maintains a healthy risk tolerance as it keeps its delinquency rate at four percent and assured that it will not go beyond double-digit level.

“We’ve been doing small tests, issuing credit to people who don’t have credit and so far those tests have been going very well. So our delinquency level from this sector have been very controlled, hence now we’re expanding issuing credit to people who you would be considering unbanked before,” he said.

Mr. Calasanz said the bank is also partnering with fintech companies for faster and accurate credit scoring.

“We’re very bullish on credit card growth, we think the room for growth, like I mentioned, there’s still very huge potential because the market is only been lending to people who already have credit. We want to focus on the 20 million who don’t have credit now,” he said. — Beatrice M. Laforga

PECO ordered to explain ‘operational lapses’

THE Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has directed Panay Electric Co., Inc. (PECO) to explain the “apparent operational lapses” found by the agency’s inspection team and why the distribution utility should not be imposed an administrative penalty or held criminally liable for its violations.

“Based on the findings of the ERC technical team that conducted the ocular inspection on the electric distribution system of PECO, the latter committed lapses in the operations and maintenance of its distribution system thereby posing danger and risks to the lives and properties of its consumers,” said ERC Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer Agnes VST Devanadera in a statement.

In an order dated Nov. 26, 2019, ERC required PECO’s directors and officers to explain its violations of the pertinent provisions of the following: Philippine Distribution Code (PDC) 2017 Edition; Amended Distribution Services and Open Access Rules (DSOAR); Amended Elevated Metering Center (EMC) Rules; and ERC Resolution No. 12, Series of 2009, or the Guidelines for the Accreditation of Satellite Laboratories of Meter Shops.

“PECO must submit its explanation within fifteen days from receipt of the Commission’s Order pursuant to the relevant provisions of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA). We need to accord PECO the opportunity to explain its side before we evaluate the extent of their liability for the operational lapses that were discovered,” Ms. Devanadera said.

The ERC inspection team found that PECO’s protective devices were not properly rated and designed, and that some poles were found leaning and in unsafe positions. It also discovered that some meters were found to be clustered and installed in an elevated metering center without securing prior ERC approval.

The inspection team also uncovered that the Certificate of Authority for PECO’s meter shop expired on Nov. 18, 2019, and PECO has not filed the application for the renewal of the same. — Victor V. Saulon

Dining Out (12/05/19)

Yellow Cab’s All Star Holidays Bundle

YELLOW CAB is offering its customers the All Star Holidays Bundle featuring its bestselling dishes, from its edge-to-edge pizza to pasta and wings, all for P999. Dine on the 10-inch New York’s Finest pizza, one large serving of Charlie Chan pasta, and 10 original Hot Chix wings in one bundle that is available for dine-in, takeout, delivery, or curbside pick-up. Yellow Cab’s All-Star Holidays Bundle is available until Jan. 15. For more information, visit https://www.facebook.com/YellowCabPizzaOfficial/.

Unlimited fresh seafood

Cebu’s Isla Sugbu Seafood City is now offering Unlimited Seafood — guests choose from its wide array of fresh and live seafood, fish, shrimp, squid, crabs, or oysters, and have them cooked to their liking — fried, steamed, grilled, pan-seared, broiled, poached, or any type of cooking method. Then they can repeat the whole process until they are completely satisfied. (Note that premium items such as lobster, mudcrab, live suahe, sea mantis, and grouper are not included in the Unlimited Seafood package.) Unlimited Seafood must-tries inlude Sinigang na Salmon, Black Pepper Crab, Stir Fry Scallops, Salt and Pepper Calamari, and Salted Egg Shrimps, all these and more for P888 per head (lunch and dinner) at the Venice Grand Canal in McKinley Hills, Taguig, and P797 per head (lunch) and P848 (dinner) at the Cebu branch. Prices are exclusive of 3% service charge. For details visit www.seafoodcity.ph.

Toblerone special holiday packaging

TOBLERONE celebrtes Christmas with its limited edition Toblerone Blank Packs. With the theme “12 Days of Christmas with Toblerone,” the limited edition Toblerone Blank Packs have different personalities for the different people on one’s Christmas list. Every pack design has a specific theme and the giver can add a personal touch by writing messages. Toblerone is also holding a promo with a chance to win prizes like a trip to Japan, a shopping spree, and a new mobile phone. To join the Toblerone Christmas promo, which is ongoing until Dec. 27, buy Toblerone packs worth P100, then redeem and fill up raffle stubs at designated mall hubs nationwide (and get a chance to win a giant 4.5 kg chocolate bar). Follow the #BeMoreImaginative and #TobleroneChristmas hashtags and follow @tobleroneph on Instagram and Toblerone Pilipinas on Facebook to find out how to win the prizes. The Limited Edition Holiday Black Packsare available in 100g (P106), 200g (P206) and 360g (P400) sizes.

Apple fails to end MacBook ‘butterfly’ keyboard class action

A FEDERAL judge on Monday rejected Apple Inc.’s bid to dismiss a proposed class action lawsuit by customers who said it knew and concealed how the “butterfly” keyboards on its MacBook laptop computers were prone to failure.

US District Judge Edward Davila in San Jose, California said Apple must face claims that its troubleshooting program did not provide an “effective fix” for MacBook design defects, or fully compensate customers for their out-of-pocket expenses while seeking repairs.

Customers claimed that their MacBook, MacBook Pro and MacBook Air laptop keyboards suffered from sticky keys, unresponsive keys and keystrokes that failed to register when tiny amounts of dust or debris accumulated under or near keys.

They also said Apple’s service program was inadequate because the Cupertino, California-based company often provided replacement keyboards that had the same problems.

The lawsuit covers purchasers of model year 2015 or later MacBook laptops, and model year 2016 or later MacBook Pros laptops. It seeks a variety of damages for violations of several states’ consumer protection laws.

Apple did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Benjamin Johns, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, said he was pleased with the decision and looked forward to pursuing the case.

Last month, Apple introduced a MacBook Pro with a larger screen and new “Magic” keyboard with the “scissor” mechanism more commonly found in the industry. The hinged butterfly mechanism resembles a butterfly’s wings.

The case is In re: MacBook Keyboard Litigation, US District Court, Northern District of California, No. 18-02813. — Reuters

Australian fund managers are already betting on quantitative easing

AUSTRALIAN asset managers are gearing up for what was once unthinkable: the prospect of quantitative easing (QE) in their own backyard.

They’ve pored over the lessons from overseas and arrived at a different conclusion to central bank chief Philip Lowe, who has sought to damp expectations that QE is likely in Australia.

Some including QIC Ltd. and Nikko Asset Management Ltd. are already buying assets on bets that interest-rate cuts won’t be enough to combat slowing economic growth. They see the impact of asset purchases rippling broadly through debt markets, even if Lowe manages to limit any QE program to government bonds.

“QE could come even before any recession,” said Susan Buckley, QIC’s managing director for global liquid strategies, who is overweight Australian credit. Unorthodox monetary policy “is definitely a scenario we have to prepare for. Everyone’s talking about QE.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut interest rates three times since June, to a record low 0.75%, amid a slide in economic growth to the slowest pace in a decade.

Mr. Lowe has said in a speech on Nov. 26 that rates would need to go to 0.25% before he’d consider QE, and that even then, the hurdle to asset purchases would be high. He also signaled that the RBA would have little appetite for buying private-sector assets.

But with unemployment that’s too high to drive up wages and tepid gains in consumer prices, investors expect Mr. Lowe to be pushed outside his comfort zone. Many of them were right in positioning for the recent run of rate cuts. The RBA stood pat on Tuesday.

“Look across the developed world and if you can show me a country that’s averaged 2.5% inflation over the past 10 years then you’re doing a better job than me,” said Chris Rands, portfolio manager at Nikko Asset, who is loading up on semi-government bonds. “Why would Australia be the country that achieves that when no one else has?”

Here’s how some fund managers are preparing for QE:

LONG BONDS
Australian sovereign bond yields are likely to fall across the curve as the RBA steps in as a default purchaser, said Raymond Lee, money manager at Kapstream Capital, a unit of Janus Henderson Investors. That makes government bonds a fairly compelling buy for the A$14-billion ($9.6-billion) fund.

“We’ve increased our duration at the beginning of this year, just because we felt that rates were going to stay lower for longer,” said Sydney-based Mr. Lee. While QE might still be “a while away, RBA comments on unconventional policy only confirms the fact that rates are going to stay low and could rally further.”

The central bank may buy up to A$50 billion of Australian government bonds as part of a QE package as early as next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Stuart Dear, deputy head of fixed-income at Schroder Investment Management Australia Ltd., is also positive on Australian sovereign debt. He expects bonds with maturities shorter than five years to outperform if the RBA embarks on QE.

SEMIS BET
Nikko Asset started buying Australian dollar-denominated semi-government debt last year, wagering notes maturing in a decade were priced attractively.

It’s been a profitable trade. Yield spreads of quasi-government debt have narrowed against their sovereign counterparts.

“We can look at the US experience for this, where even though they bought government bonds there, other assets all got supported,” Mr. Rands said. “It’s likely to be the same in Australia, as QE gives semis an extra kick.”

Schroders’ Mr. Dear has also boosted holdings of semi-government securities.

“We have increased our exposures by buying semi-government bonds and residential mortgage-backed securities,” he said. “This buying came ahead of Lowe’s speech, which has broadly affirmed our views.”

CREDIT BOOST
Others including QIC’s Ms. Buckley see Australian corporate bonds gaining, even if the RBA’s initial focus is on government debt.

She sees unconventional stimulus as likely to “float all boats.”

On top of this, the RBA could run out of sovereign bonds to buy. Mr. Lowe has noted that the gross stock of government debt is projected to decline over the years ahead. And the biggest owners of the bonds — domestic banks and foreign central banks — are long-term holders who may not be willing to sell in large quantities.

While rising risks of a recession or economic slowdown would normally see the A$85-billion money manager shed some of its credit exposure, Brisbane-based QIC is taking a new tack.

“We’ve seen this play out in the UK, Europe where spreads have compressed as a result of ECB (European Central Bank) purchases, and it could happen here as investors push out the credit spectrum as risk-free rates fall,” Ms. Buckley said.

SHORT AUSSIE
For those scouting for a more liquid way to trade Aussie QE, shorting the nation’s currency presents the best avenue, said Stephen Miller, adviser at GSFM, a unit of Canada’s CI Financial Group.

“If QE is coming, the Australian dollar will look sick and likely get sicker,” Sydney-based Mr. Miller said. “It’s a good short if you’re looking to war game quantitative easing, and right now, I’d say a target of around 65 US cents is achievable.”

The Aussie has weakened about 3% against the greenback this year and touched a decade-low of 66.71 US cents in October as traders priced in fresh interest-rate cuts.

Australia’s economic growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter from the previous three months, slightly less than economists forecast, according to data released Wednesday.

The nation’s biggest pension fund, AustralianSuper Pty., is underweight the Aussie and long sovereign paper on bets the RBA may unleash QE as early as next year.

The central bank is likely to push rates to as close as zero as they think they can without damaging the banking system, according to Carl Astorri, head of asset allocation and research at the A$175-billion fund. “That process would flatten the yield curve and push the currency down,” he said.

TIMING QE
To be sure, no market participant can say for certain when and how QE will finally be deployed.

Recovering real estate prices may spur a housing-related consumption rebound, helping the RBA stay its hand on unconventional policies next year, according to Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Citigroup, Inc. reversed its call for stimulus in 2020, forecasting just one more RBA rate cut before the central bank keeps rates on hold. Barclays Bank Plc predicts QE is unlikely as Australia’s economy heads towards a “gentle turning point.”

For some, it’s still better to be safe than sorry.

“There are several steps before the RBA gets to QE, but if they need to act further down the track, they likely will,” said GSFM’s Miller. “I’m not surprised some think now might be the time to start buying assets.” — Bloomberg

How PSEi member stocks performed — December 4, 2019

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Wednesday, December 4, 2019.

 

Lacson proposes more UHC, National ID funding

SENATOR Panfilo M. Lacson said he proposed budget amendments providing for additional funding for the Philippine Identification System (PhilSys) program, Universal Health Care (UHC), and free university tuition.

In documents posted to his website, Mr. Lacson outlined his proposed amendments to the Senate Finance Committee, noting that the key programs have been allocated insufficient funds in the P4.1 trillion 2020 budget. The two chambers’ budget bills are currently being harmonized in bicameral session with a ratification target of next week.

Mr. Lacson proposed to increase the budget of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) to P7.009 billion from P1.364 billion, citing the insufficient allocation for Philsys, or the National ID program, of P2.4 billion.

He said the estimated cost to provide IDs to an initial 14 million Filipinos is P5.7 billion, more than double the budgeted funds.

The National ID is intended to increase financial inclusiveness by giving those without bank accounts access to an ID acceptable to all banks. A more secure ID is also expected to reduce benefits fraud in cash transfers to the poor and possibly ease the implementation of Universal Health Care (UHC).

“The funding gap will significantly hamper our annual implementation targets and fundamentally, our aim to achieve universal coverage,” Mr. Lacson said.

Mr. Lacson also proposed to increase the budget of the Commission on Higher Education (CHEd) by P2 billion to P45.88 billion. The increase will fund the Tertiary Education Subsidy.

He proposed to increase the Department of Health’s (DoH) budget by P3 billion, with P1 billion to support the Health Facilities Enhancement Program, and P2 billion for the Human Resource for Health program.

“One of the key programs under the UHC is the Health Facilities Enhancement Program where appropriations significantly decreased from P15.92 billion under the 2019 GAA (General Appropriations Act) to a mere P5.9 billion under the NEP National Expenditure Plan) 2020.”

To fund the increased program budgets, Mr. Lacson proposed to reduce the funding for the Department of Transportation (DoTr) and Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), among others.

The DoTr budget for Right-of-Way Acquisition was reduced by half to P5 billion, while P15 billion was slashed from the DPWH ROW appropriations.

Mr. Lacson said as of Oct. 31, the DoTr has only obligated P1.2 billion of P13.26 billion budget for ROW payments. “Considering that huge unused appropriations will be carried over next year, it is inefficient to provide substantial funding for ROW,” he said.

He said the DPWH’s average unused appropriations from 2011 to 2018 was P82.4 billion.

The chambers of Congress are working to submit the budget to President Rodrigo R. Duterte for signing before the year ends and avoid a repeat of the four-month delay in the 2019 budget, which has been blamed for dampening economic growth in early 2019. — Charmaine A. Tadalan