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[B-SIDE Podcast] A digital economy for everyone, everywhere

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Economic growth can and should be inclusive, and the way to get there is to connect small businesses and individuals with the networks that drive the modern economy. 

In this episode of B-Side, we’ll hear from Alison L. Eskesen, vice-president at the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth.

Ms. Eskesen,  a seasoned international development executive with more than 20 years of experience at the intersection of development and finance, tells BusinessWorld reporter Patricia B. Mirasol how the Center advances sustainable, equitable economic growth and financial inclusion around the world. 

“Connecting small businesses and individuals to those networks leads to revenue growth and prosperity, which over time leads to more job creation in underserved communities,” Ms. Eskesen said. “That’s where you see this lift of entire communities, and not just one or two individuals who may have been supported.” 

Takeaways

Connecting microbusinesses to the digital economy requires both systemic and individual changes.

The challenges of connecting microbusinesses to the digital economy are both systemic and individual. At the systemic level, it requires infrastructure and connectivity so everyone can participate regardless of their geographic location or socioeconomic status. At the individual level, it requires bridging the knowledge gap as well as allaying the fear of change by developing skills and know-how in them. 

“It’s addressing questions such as, how can meaningful financial inclusion be extended to the underbanked?,” said Ms. Eskesen. 

 Entrepreneurs should have access to tools tailored to their needs.

 Collaborating with regional partners is a way to take the particular needs of entrepreneurs into account so financial products could be created to meet those needs. Solutions have to be looked at from end-to-end to empower change. Organizations creating solutions should also be cognizant of the fact that certain locales have cultural considerations that are not relevant elsewhere. 

In South Asia, for instance, the role of family and the expectation of women in families plays a huge role in creating a ceiling as to how engaged or successful a woman entrepreneur might be. “Either that’s because her husband may take over a business once it gets to a certain size,” she said, “or because her mother-in-law expects her not to be outside the house for such a long time.” 

Education and professional know-how are the keys to addressing inequality.

In Indonesia, Ms. Eskesen said, the government is focused on skilling because it wants the digital economy to be a larger part of their GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The Center’s Mastercard Academy 2.0 is in line with this goal, as it aims to empower 100,00 Indonesians with the necessary digital skills to succeed. 

The Center also rolled out its girls-for-tech curriculum in Indonesia, and is providing STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education for 60,000 girls over the next three years. 

“We know from research that girls around the age of 14 years start to decide that they are no longer good nor interested in STEM and thus take themselves off that educational pathway,” Ms. Eskesen said, “which then leads to gender imbalance for future jobs in the digital economy.”

In the Philippines, the Center works with the Landbank of the Philippines and local government units with the goal of bringing in 10.2 million Filipinos into the formal economy and having them banked. 82% of those 10.2 million, added Ms. Eskesen, are not previously banked. 

Tertiary school subsidies have been also given to students in the poorest schools, together also with the help of Landbank and the government.

 “This is important because we don’t want to see the challenges that COVID-19 has brought to disrupt education,” said Ms. Eskesen. “That creates ripple effects that continue and linger [even past] this pandemic.”

As we come out of this pandemic, data inequality will continue to become a bigger problem and create a chasm that’s difficult to overcome. 

Data can be used to empower and enable civil society and policymakers to have the necessary information to make better decisions, which is why inequality over data access also has to be addressed as the world comes out of the pandemic.

One initiative meant to tackle this issue is data.org, a platform that began as a collaboration between the Center and the Rockefeller Foundation. It hosted a $10 million challenge around solutions that look to solve access to credit around the world, with seven just declared winners. 

“We are waiting to see how they develop these solutions and roll them out to the market,” Ms. Eskesen said. 

Access to credit, for example, is a challenge for mom-and-pop shops because most are informal, do not have collateral that traditional banks are willing to accept, and are therefore locked out of the banking system. 

The Center was able to work around this challenge in Kenya by asking for the sales data—often going back years—of these shops from Unilever, one of their partners. They were then able to get one of their banking partners to lend loans to these mom-and-pop shops on a recreated cash flow based on the said data. The result was the creation of a digital credit facility that brings in thousands of small businesses previously unable to access these financial services. 

 “This was in Kenya, but because we did that with Unilever, we are able to think about how we can replicate it in different markets,” said Ms. Eskesen. “When we creatively think of how we can bring in all the different pieces, we get an almost plug-and-play approach that we can then really think about replicating.”

This B-Side episode was recorded remotely on March 18. Produced by Paolo L. Lopez and Sam L. Marcelo.

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Finding the right balance between saving and investing

Metrobank FVP Chorie Chan shares why a balanced portfolio starts with sufficient saving

Money matters so let us go back to the basics of money manners. Very often, one equates saving to investing. The starting point is about generation of income, accumulation of money, building one’s stash, and growing our balances in the bank. At some point, one begins to ask, what’s next?

While it is everyone’s aspiration to achieve financial stability and eventually financial security, it is imperative that the roadmap is clear. Here are some steps you can take.

Evaluate your personal balance sheet.

How much funds come in? Pause, take a step back, and take note of what you have now. What is your net income after taxes or your paycheck + income from other sources? Deduct expenditures. Classify into recurring and non-recurring.

Recurring expenses are common, programmable, and expected such as utilities, food, insurance premiums, education, loan amortizations, and IOUs. Add to the tab, average expenses on recreation, travels, clothes, etc.

Non-recurring items are those that may not necessarily happen in the normal course of everyday life. One may splurge in the latest television model, replace a vehicle, or worst, have health-related emergencies.

Assess your cash position.

Are you a net saver or are you a net user of funds? After summing up all credits to income and debits from expenses, what is left, if any, becomes one’s savings?

After all the math is done and one is counting on a regular paycheck or cash flow, it is safe to estimate the level of savings in the foreseeable future.

Determine your plans and personal objectives.

Do you have any plans and personal projects in the near, medium, and long-term? What are your big dreams for you and your family?

Begin with the end in mind before you go a step further. It is not uncommon that you don’t know the answers. That is an answer in itself. If there is any cloud of uncertainty, then it is best to set funds aside in a readily accessible account and take time to ascertain future moves.

Saving versus investing

The starting point of investing is saving. However, not all savers are investors, at least just yet. The road between both diverges on the following criteria:

Purpose. When one is at the early life stage of building up account balances and accumulating wealth, one may safely say that the purpose is to save.

Use. What am I saving for? Is there a need for these funds anytime? In case the unforeseeable happens, are these the only funds I can dip into? If the answer is on the affirmative, then the use of funds is for savings.

Time horizon. Am I going to need these funds any given day, hence the need to be liquid at all times? If yes, then save now.

Risk appetite. Conservative preservation of capital or the nest egg is critical. Keep it that way and save.

Objective. Safety. With balances left in your bank account, do not rush into investing. Ask yourself what your financial objectives are. Are these funds for emergency purposes and therefore, liquidity is paramount? Is it for more capital accumulation and long-term growth? Is it for building wealth to be passed on to the next generation?

If the answer is liquidity, the safety and accessibility are your objectives. Keep them safe and accessible. Save.

Why proceed to investing instead of settling for only saving? While saving is a perfect starting point, one must not stay idle excess funds there. As has been said, it is the surest way to wipe out wealth. Inflation makes your money lose value as it erodes your purchasing power. Investing, on the other hand, can further maximize what you now have. Investors graduate into a different mindset beyond the aforementioned answers of savers.

  • Purpose: To earn a considerable yield versus target benchmarks
  • Use: No immediate liquidity requirements
  • Time horizon: Medium to long-term
  • Objective: Long-term growth
  • Risk appetite: Can tolerate a considerable amount of risk

How will you find the right balance between saving and investing, then? It is imperative that while one is on the crossroads between saving and investing, financial education and literacy must be sought. Easy access to information with the vast channels through the internet, fund managers, banks, and even among family and friends is an enabler in itself. Understand the instruments and tools out there. Even when you do not have the investible funds ready, explore and thirst for information on various asset classes which are attune to the type of potential investor that you are or may become someday.

Depending on your personal objectives and use of funds, you may create a portfolio mix that allots a certain portion to savings and another to investments.  One does not have to be a hotshot, big-time customer to become an investor. With the availability of investment products, each investor has an opportunity to participate in the financial markets. Retail investors may tap pooled funds which is the gateway to tap various asset classes while customers with sizable investible funds may tailor fit their portfolio and directly invest in securities of their choice.

Select a sound and stable institution where you will deposit your hard-earned savings. Entrust your investments to professional and reputable investment specialists or portfolio managers with excellent track record of consistency and sound financial management. Put value in the market leadership, unparalleled diversity, and investment distribution capacity of your financial advisors.

As a last message, people ask me when is the best time to save? I would say yesterday. When is the best time to invest? The past is gone so the answer has got to be today. Waste time, no more. Begin your journey from saving to investing and enjoy the vast discovery!

Money matters. Start building your money manners.

 

 

 

SM Investments Corporation announces schedule of stockholders’ meeting

SM Investments Corporation will hold its virtual annual stockholders’ meeting on April 28, 2021, at 2:30 p.m. For more information, please visit https://www.sminvestments.com/asm2021

Security Bank Corporation sets stockholders’ meeting via remote communication

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AREIT, Inc. announces schedule of virtual stockholders’ meeting

Extended ECQ likely to dampen Philippine growth

Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal will remain under a strict lockdown until April 11. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

By Beatrice M. Laforga and Gillian M. Cortez, Reporters

THE EXTENSION of the strict lockdown in Metro Manila and nearby provinces will likely drag on Philippine economic growth and drive investors away, several economists said on Sunday.

Extending the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the country’s main economic hub, as well as Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, could shave at least one percentage point off gross domestic product (GDP) this year and further slow economic recovery, Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. said in a note on Sunday.

This could also lead to further downward revisions in growth forecasts as prolonged restrictions will continue to weigh on household spending and investments, Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said on Sunday.

Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal will remain under ECQ until April 11, the Palace said on Saturday. Restrictions have been tightened after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases continued to spike. On Sunday, the Health department reported 11,028 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the number of current active cases to 135,526 (Read related story Philippines adds 11,000 more covid-19 cases”).

“The ECQs should work and offset the near-term economic effects once testing, tracing and treatment is scaled up as should be the intent of the current lockdowns. Absent of these factors, then a protracted and probable further lockdowns will only be detrimental in the longer run to the economy,” Mr. Roces added.

Prolonging the lockdown was “inevitable” to curb the spread of the virus after the government failed to flatten the infection curve, according to Ateneo School of Government Dean Ronald U. Mendoza.

Mr. Mendoza said the move could cause businesses and investors to be more risk averse if the government relies on lockdowns to curb the spike in infections.

“We are once again using the blunt instrument of a lockdown instead of building a sophisticated and evidence-based test-trace-treat system, that, once in place, will allow us to open the economy and restore consumer confidence again,” he added.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon earlier said the agency has reviewed the impact of the extended lockdown on the economy but did not provide details.

The government expects the economy to grow by 6.5-7.5% this year, after the record 9.5% slump in 2020.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) will have to meet again to review its current macroeconomic forecasts, Budget Secretary Wendel E. Avisado said late last week. However, there is still no final date set for the DBCC meeting.

“In a situation where we are experiencing systems failure — overwhelmed critical care facilities, disorganized contact tracing and the like — we cannot avoid using the lockdown instrument,” said Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III, co-founder and coordinator of the group Action for Economic Reforms (AER) on Sunday.

While on lockdown, the government, however, has to ramp up effective testing and tracing, maintain efficient referral and data systems, and raise enough funds to support relief and medical interventions, Mr. Sta. Ana added.

The Finance department in an economic bulletin over the weekend said the government will remain conservative in its fiscal response, since its “prudent debt policy” implemented over the years helped the Philippines strengthen buffers against the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

“This is one of the reasons for the strong confidence of investors in the Philippine economy. Nevertheless, we must continue to prudently manage our fiscal situation and continue to observe fiscal responsibility,” the Department of Finance said.

Mr. Ricafort said the passage of the law that slashed corporate income tax and streamline incentives will partially offset the adverse impact of a prolonged lockdown, since the stimulus is equivalent to up to 1% of gross domestic product per year.

‘BILLIONS’ IN LOSSES
Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECoP) President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. said the extended ECQ will cost the economy “billions” in losses, unlike the first week which fell during Holy Week.

Itong another extension of one week…Bilyon-bilyon ang cost sa economy ito at sa gobyerno especially (Another extension of one week…this will cost billions to the economy and especially to the government),” he said in a radio interview on DZBB, Sunday.

Mr. Ortiz-Luis said the government’s “lack of foresight” and inconsistent policies have contributed to the losses.

He said more businesses will likely close down, as the coronavirus outbreak worsens.

Federation of Free Workers Vice-President Julius H. Cainglet said the one-week ECQ extension will affect workers who will be deprived of daily wages and are not assured of any assistance from the government.

“Under strict ECQ, those reporting for work would also have to pay more for transportation. Not to mention the threat and danger of contracting the virus as the COVID-19 infection rate continues to increase by the day,” he told BusinessWorld.

Partido Manggagawa Chairperson Renato B. Magtubo also told BusinessWorld on Sunday that ECQ without any appropriate aid for affected workers will “do more harm than good.”

“ECQ or any other form of lockdowns alone would not be sustainable to address the rising cases of COVID-19 as experienced in the NCR and nearby provinces without addressing the need for vaccination, massive testing, isolation and treatment for those found positive as well as providing aid to workers and companies affected by the lockdown,” he said.

Associated Labor Unions — Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (ALU-TUCP) Spokesperson Alan A. Tanjusay said the government needs to give out additional cash assistance, since the P1,000 provided by the local government units is not enough to survive another week of ECQ.

“We appeal to the government to instead fix the cash assistance at P4,000 per household regardless of how many people in a household, instead of P1,000 per person and maximum of P4,000 per household,” he told BusinessWorld on Sunday.

PHL inflation uptick seen in March — poll

A vendor arranges fish at a public market amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, Feb. 5. — REUTERS/ELOISA LOPEZ

By Luz Wendy T. Noble, Reporter

INFLATION likely accelerated further in March due to elevated food and fuel prices, remaining beyond the central bank’s target range for a third straight month, a BusinessWorld poll showed.

The median estimate of 13 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll last week stood at 4.8%, near the upper end of the 4.2-5% estimate given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

If realized, this would be quicker than the 4.7% print in February as well as the 2.5% a year earlier. It would also exceed the BSP’s 2-4% target range.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will report the official March inflation data on April 6.

“Food inflation together with higher transport costs will exert upward pressure on headline inflation,” ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.

Prices of food staples such as meat and vegetables have jumped in the past months due to supply disruptions following the typhoons in the latter part of 2020 as well as the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak. In response, the government has imposed a 60-day price cap on certain pork and chicken products in Metro Manila which will end on April 8.

Some analysts pointed out that rising global commodity prices are affecting local consumer prices.

“Despite subdued domestic demand due to ongoing lockdown restrictions, global commodity prices remain elevated, likely leading to ongoing price pressures domestically,” HSBC Global Research economist Noelan Arbis said.

Crude oil prices have also remained high in anticipation of pent-up demand alongside signs of recovery in the world economy. The Suez Canal crisis last month also contributed to an uptick in global oil prices, which then slipped after the waterway reopened.

Data from the Department of Energy showed gasoline, diesel, and kerosene prices have increased by P6.15, P4.60, and P3.50 per liter as of March 30 year to date.

Central bank officials have said the inflation uptick seen in the previous months is driven by low supply and is “transitory” in nature, like previous supply-side shock episodes of higher inflation.

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno has said that demand-side inflation factors “remain largely subdued while core inflation is showing relative stability.”

“The March inflation print could give a clue if the supply-side pressures on inflation during the preceding months are already spilling over on core inflation,” said Alvin Joseph A. Arogo, vice-president and head of equity research division at Philippine National Bank.

UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said inflation will likely reach its peak by May before easing.

In its March 25 policy-setting meeting, the central bank raised its annual inflation forecast to 4.2%.

BSP Deputy Governor Francisco G. Dakila, Jr. said inflation will likely decelerate below the midpoint of their 2-4% target towards the fourth quarter.

Most analysts are of the view that the March inflation print will make the case stronger for the BSP to remain accommodative.

The central bank retained its “prudent pause” in March, keeping the overnight reverse repurchase, lending, and deposit rates at all-time lows of 2%, 2.5%, and 1.5% for three consecutive policy meetings.

“Our sense is that the BSP will be in no rush to tweak its accommodative stance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Like all other Asian emerging market economies, the BSP will not deviate from its current monetary policy stance,” Mr. Asuncion said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Mapa noted how the central bank stressed the country is not yet seeing reflation and maintained that a quicker increase in the consumer price index during the previous months were driven by supply disruptions.

Mr. Diokno said the Philippines is not experiencing reflation or the act of inflation being back to its long-term trend after an economic downturn. He said they remain watchful for signs of second-round effects caused by higher inflation and will act accordingly when the need arises.

“It looks clear that monetary authorities will be willing to accommodate first-round effects (ASF, oil price spike) and only react if inflation expectations are de-anchored, second-round effects (transport and wage adjustments) manifest, or both occur,” Mr. Mapa said.

On the other hand, Sun Life Financial economist Patrick M. Ella said the central bank is unlikely to move rates “unless growth deteriorates due to the new round of lockdowns.”

Metro Manila and surrounding provinces Laguna, Cavite, Bulacan and Rizal are under the strictest form of lockdown until April 11, as the government tries to curb the spike in coronavirus infections.

Mr. Diokno has vowed to remain accommodative until the country’s recovery is on a more stable footing, adding that early exit strategies from policy responses may pose risks to the economy and to financial stability.

The Monetary Board has six more policy-setting meetings left this year, with the next one set on May 13.

Analysts’ March inflation rate estimates

Further improvements in anti-dirty money regulations sought

REGULATORS and policy makers continue to make sure that the tighter anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism measures are being implemented properly.

Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) Executive Director Mel Georgie B. Racela said the Philippines still needs to address gaps in areas identified by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in its previous assessment.

“Each country must enforce these measures and ensure that the operational, law enforcement, and legal components of an anti-money laundering/counter-terrorism financing system work together effectively to achieve a passing rate of ‘substantial’ for each of the 11 immediate outcomes,” he said in a Viber message.

“Recall that we were rated ‘substantial’ only in immediate outcome 1, which is risk assessment, and fell short in all other immediate outcomes,” Mr. Racela added.

The Paris-based dirty money watchdog assesses countries’ efforts against money laundering and terrorism through immediate outcomes in areas such as risk assessment; international cooperation; supervision; preventive measures implemented by the private sector; legal persons and arrangements, and beneficial ownership information; financial intelligence; money laundering investigation and prosecution; confiscation; terrorism financing investigation and prosecution; targeted financial sanctions; and proliferation financing.

The Philippines addressed these deficiencies in terms of technical compliance through Republic Act No. 11521 which amended the Anti-Money Laundering Act and Republic Act No. 11479 or the Anti-Terror Act of 2020. Technical compliance refers to prevailing laws and regulations that are in line with FATF standards and criteria.

“Although these [laws] have only been passed recently, we are committed to demonstrate effective implementation,” Mr. Racela said.

The Philippines was removed from the FATF’s gray list of countries deemed to have lax measures against dirty money and terrorism financing in February 2005, five years after its inclusion in 2000. The country was under a one-year observation period that was extended until Feb. 1, 2021, when it was expected to have addressed the gaps in its anti-money and counter-terrorism financing rules.

Mr. Racela said they started submitting the post-observation period reports on March 30, which covered immediate outcomes related to international cooperation and financial intelligence. He said they will submit reports related to other standards to FATF on April 6.

“We are optimistic that the FATF will note the country’s significant accomplishments given the limited time and the special circumstance that the world is currently in,” he said.

Amid implementing a tighter watch and regulations against dirty money, the AMLC has issued freeze orders for assets worth about P2.2 billion from 2019 to 2020. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

Emirates hopes to see recovery by 2022

By Arjay L. Balinbin, Senior Reporter

WITH the ongoing vaccination program, Emirates is hoping to get back to profitability by 2022, a company official said.

“This is the worst crisis we’ve ever experienced in this industry. We still have a long way to go before we get back to profitability, and we hope this happens by 2022 as the global vaccination program’s impact really begins to kick in,” Emirates Philippines Country Manager Jaber Mohamed told BusinessWorld in a recent e-mail interview.

He said the airline is doing all it can to get back on a good footing.

“We are scaling up our cargo operations to meet global demand and controlling our costs, along with a host of other measures to be ready once recovery kicks in,” Mr. Mohamed noted.

Before the Philippine government revived the enhanced community quarantine in the National Capital Region and nearby provinces and enforced limited international arrivals at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport, Emirates was operating flights to Manila, Clark, and Cebu with 12 flights a week across all three cities. The airline was hoping to resume its pre-pandemic schedule of 25 flights to Dubai.

“Our objective right now is to maintain and grow load factors. In the longer term, we will continue to assess and carefully analyze the market, its performance and needs, which will show if there are more opportunities for us to further expand our presence,” Mr. Mohamed said.

“We still see a high volume of travelers on business and leisure trips and a healthy market share of overseas workers traveling to/through Dubai. Today, we serve over 90 global destinations, with safe and convenient connections via our Dubai hub for customers traveling between the Americas, Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. The total number of destinations we are operating today represents close to 70% of our pre-pandemic network. We are also fully operating our 147-strong Boeing 777 fleet for both passenger and cargo missions,” he explained.

He said the pandemic has also greatly affected Emirates’ cargo business.

“In late March 2020, our passenger operations were completely suspended because of the pandemic. As a result, Emirates SkyCargo lost the majority of its cargo capacity as during normal operations, close to 70% of the total cargo is transported in the bellyhold of passenger aircraft,” he noted.

Emirates SkyCargo transported 0.8 million tons of cargo across its global network for the six-month period from April to September last year.

“Overall cargo volumes reduced by about 35% when compared to the same period the previous year,” Mr. Mohamed said.

“However, Emirates SkyCargo responded rapidly to changing circumstances and scaled up our operations by introducing cargo only flights on passenger aircraft, loading cargo in the cabin of the aircraft — both on seats and in overhead compartments as well as on the floor of aircraft with Economy Class seats removed. With these measures, we were still able to uplift 65% of previous year’s cargo volumes,” he added.

He also said travelers from the Philippines can look forward to a safe journey across every travel touchpoint with Emirates, given its health and safety measures.

“Once vaccines are rolled out at speed and scale, we will see a lot of movement, and demand is expected to increase,” Mr. Mohamed noted.

“We are continuously looking at business continuity activities as well as different ways to reduce our costs, enforcing fiscal discipline across the board, revenue management and smart network planning, among other initiatives. We are confident that through different initiatives that demonstrate our preparedness and adaptability, we will successfully recapture demand and revive our revenue growth,” he explained.

Lockdown, surge in COVID cases seen to weaken peso

THE PESO may depreciate versus the greenback this week due to cautious sentiment amid the continued increase in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases as well as the extension of the lockdown.

The local unit finished trading at P48.53 a dollar on Wednesday, gaining 1.5 centavos from its P48.545 close on Tuesday, based on data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines. Trading was suspended from Thursday to Friday in view of the Holy Week holidays.

The currency also appreciated by four centavos from its P48.49 finish on March 26.

The peso’s strength on Wednesday was due to some downward adjustment in global oil prices, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a text message.

Reuters reported that oil prices declined by more than 1% on Tuesday following the reopening of the Suez Canal after being blocked by a container carrier for nearly a week.

Brent crude price declined 1.2% or 84 cents to $64.14 per barrel. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate ended the session with its price falling by 1.6% or $1.01 to $60.55 a barrel.

Meanwhile, a trader said in a Viber message that the peso gained while the market “awaits  the  central  bank’s  latest  assessment  on inflation.”

A BusinessWorld poll of 13 analysts last week yielded a median estimate of 4.8% for March inflation, as analysts cited food and transport prices may have caused a faster increase in commodity prices. The central bank said it sees inflation within 4.2% to 5% last month, beyond its 2-4% target.

For this week, Mr. Ricafort said the market would consider the impact of the extended lockdown and the trend of infection cases.

Presidential Spokesperson Herminio “Harry” L. Roque said in a briefing on Saturday that the lockdown in Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, and Bulacan is extended for another week until April 11.

COVID-19 cases in the country rose by 12,576 on Saturday to bring the total to 784,042. Active cases hit 165,576 at a time when healthcare facilities are again under immense pressure to accommodate the rising infections.

Mr. Ricafort also expects the market to be on the lookout for key data releases in manufacturing as well the inflation.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the March inflation data on April 6.

Meanwhile, IHS Markit will report the country’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index this Monday. The reading stood unchanged for the second straight month at 52.5 in February, reflecting factory activity was in an expansionary mode due to a pickup in demand as more businesses reopened.

Mr. Ricafort gave a forecast range of P48.40 to P48.65 for this week while the trader said the peso might move within P48.40 to P48.70 per dollar. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

Cebu Pacific cancels 38 domestic flights due to restrictions in NCR Plus, Region 6

BUDGET carrier Cebu Pacific announced on Sunday the cancelation of its 38 domestic flights from April 5 to April 11 due to the travel restrictions in Metro Manila and Western Visayas.

Cebu Pacific canceled 28 flights between Manila and Boracay, Kalibo, Cagayan de Oro, Cebu, Coron, Lagazpi, Pagadian, and San Jose because of the extended enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the areas covered by the so-called National Capital Region (NCR) Plus.

“Only essential travel is allowed in and out of Metro Manila until April 11,” the budget carrier noted.

Cebu Pacific also announced that the interagency task force has approved the request of the local government of Region 6 (Western Visayas) to temporarily suspend the acceptance of incoming passengers until April 10.

Ten flights are affected, including flights from Manila to Iloilo, Roxas, and Bacolod.

The budget carrier also canceled the Cebu-Bacolod-Cebu flights and the Cebu-Caticlan-Cebu flights.

Passengers, according to Cebu Pacific, may rebook for travel within 90 days without additional cost, store the amount in a virtual wallet valid for two years, or request a refund, which may take up to seven months due to the high volume of requests.

For its part, flag carrier Philippine Airlines said its domestic flights to and from Manila will continue to operate during the extension of the enhanced community quarantine in the NCR Plus.

Allowed to travel within the ECQ period are: health/emergency frontline services personnel, government officials and frontline personnel, duly authorized humanitarian assistance actors, persons traveling for medical/humanitarian reasons, persons going to the airport for travel abroad, persons crossing zones for work or business permitted in the zone of destination, and returning or repatriated overseas Filipino workers and other returning overseas Filipinos, and locally stranded individuals. — Arjay L. Balinbin

T-bill, T-bond rates seen mixed as lockdown stays

GOVERNMENT securities on offer this week will likely end mixed as the market braces for the impact of the extended lockdown on the economy.

The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) is set to raise P25 billion via the Treasury bills (T-bills) on Monday, broken down into P5 billion in 91-day papers, P8 billion in 182-day debt and P12 billion in 364-day instruments.

On Tuesday, the BTr will offer P35 billion of fresh five-year Treasury bonds (T-bonds).

A bond trader estimated that T-bill rates will move sideways from the yields fetched in the previous auction last week, while a second trader sees them inching down by 5 basis points (bps).

Meanwhile, the first trader said the five-year bonds could fetch a coupon between 3.375% and 3.5%, the second trader gave a 3.25-3.5% forecast range, while a third trader estimated this could range from 3.35% to 3.6%.

The first trader attributed the projected lower T-bill rates to expectations that economic managers will meet to downgrade their growth projections for the year on dimmer economic outlook.

“Despite the increased offer volume, strong demand will still be evident on risk aversion amid the continued rise in COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) which triggered the government to impose another round of a stringent lockdown,” Kevin S. Palma, peso sovereign debt trader at Robinsons Bank Corp., said on Sunday when sought for comment.

The government extended for one more week the hard lockdown imposed in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal amid the sustained spike in daily infections. The end of the strict lockdown was moved to April 11 from the initial plan to end it on April 4.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) will have to meet again to review its macroeconomic forecasts for the year, according to Budget Secretary Wendel E. Avisado last week. However, there is still no set date and agenda for the upcoming meeting.

During the auction last week, the BTr hiked the volume of T-bills it awarded to P24 billion from P79.33 billion in bids.

It raised P7 billion from the 91-day debt, higher than the P5-billion program. The average rate of the three-month papers fell to 1.269% from the 1.336% fetched on March 22.

It borrowed another P7 billion from the 182-day T-bills, more than the P5-billion plan, at an average rate of 1.609%, down from 1.718% previously.

Lastly, the Treasury made a full P10-billion award of the one-year securities, at an average rate of 1.926%, against the 1.997% quoted previously.

The last time the BTr offered five-year bonds was on May 27 last year, when it raised P30 billion in reissued T-bonds from P118.422 billion in bids. The notes fetched an average rate of 2.676%, lower than the 4.018% previously.

“The government reimposed restrictions which will dampen growth expectations but the long-term view remains that the country will still post modest growth by the end of the year causing yields for the 5-year bonds to rise a bit. However, a prolonged lockdown may change this,” the third trader said. 

At the secondary market on Friday, the 91-, 182-, and 364-day debt were quoted at 1.284%, 1.52%, and 1.908%, while the five-year tenor was at 3.395%, based on the PHL Bloomberg Valuation Reference Rates published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

“We don’t expect the market to be aggressive on the 5-year paper given the inflation outlook,” the first trader added.

Headline inflation in March may have quickened slightly and remained beyond the central bank’s target amid high food and transport costs, according to analysts in a BusinessWorld poll of 13 analysts last week. The poll resulted in a median estimate of 4.8% inflation rate.

If realized, this would be quicker than both the 4.7% in February as well as the 2.5% a year earlier. This would also mark the third straight month of inflation beyond the central bank’s 2-4% target.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will report the official March inflation data on April 6.

The Treasury wants to raise P170 billion from the local bond market in April, broken down into P100 billion in T-bills to be offered weekly and P70 billion via fortnightly auctions of T-bonds.

The government is looking to borrow P3 trillion this year from domestic and external lenders to help fund its budget deficit, which is seen to hit 8.9% of gross domestic product. — Beatrice M. Laforga