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Investors weigh Jollibee earnings, Yoshinoya deal

By Lourdes O. Pilar, Researcher

INVESTORS took notice of Jollibee Food Corp.’s net profit in the final three months of 2020, but remained lukewarm on its joint venture to operate and expand the local unit of Japanese beef bowl restaurant Yoshinoya.

Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed a total of 4.69 million Jollibee shares worth P842.87 million were traded from Feb. 15 to 19, making it the 17th most actively traded stock last week.

The share price of the homegrown fastfood giant closed at P179.90 apiece on Friday, up by 0.7% from a week ago. Year to date, the stock lost 7.5%.

“Jollibee was among the active stocks [last] week after it turned around to a positive earnings in the fourth quarter last year despite challenges,” Diversified Securities, Inc. Equity Trader Aniceto K. Pangan said in a text message.

“Also, its plan of expansion in the International Markets at more than P12 billion plus a partnership with a well-known Japanese food company, Yoshinoya, as catalyst for growth going forward,” Mr. Pangan added.

Smashburger and The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, which have been a drag to its income, are expected to contribute to its growth this year, he said.

Philippine National Bank Senior Equity Research Analyst Jonathan J. Latuja said Jollibee’s activity last week was driven by earnings results disclosed last Monday.

However, he said that the Yoshinoya joint venture announcement did not have a “meaningful impact” on Jollibee’s share price, which ended 0.3% lower on Tuesday.

Jollibee’s fourth-quarter attributable net income declined by more than a third to P2.05 billion year on year, but reversing three consecutive quarters of net losses caused by the pandemic.

For the full year, Jollibee swung to an attributable net loss of P11.50 billion last year from P7.30 billion in net income in 2019.

In a separate disclosure last week, the fastfood giant said that it would enter into a 50/50 joint venture with Yoshinoya International Philippines, Inc. to operate and expand the Japanese restaurant chain in the country.

Jollibee disclosed to the exchange that the two would establish a 50/50 joint venture, which will be the Philippine franchisee of Yoshinoya.

To add to the three operating Yoshinoya stores in the country, the venture plans to put up an additional 50 stores in the long term.

“Its joint venture with Yoshinoya will further boost its bottom line as it will complement the delivery especially needed in this pandemic situation,” Mr. Pangan said.

With more than 2,000 stores worldwide, Yoshinoya is the latest addition to Jollibee’s quick service restaurant chains, which include Greenwich, Chowking, Red Ribbon, and Mang Inasal as well as global franchise brands such as Burger King, PHO 24, Panda Express, Smashburger, The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf.

As of end-2020, Jollibee’s store count reached 5,824, of which 3,217 are in the Philippines and 2,607 abroad.

“With the move to further ease in restriction plus rollout of vaccines, we can expect Jollibee to weather the challenges going forward, especially after a turnaround performance in the fourth quarter last year despite the challenges brought about by the pandemic,” Mr. Pangan said.

For this week, he placed the stock support at P175.60 while resistance at P202.00.

Mr. Latuja gave Jollibee’s 12-month discounted cash flow-based target price at P188.80 per share.

Yields on gov’t debt climb on inflation expectations

By Marissa Mae M. Ramos, Researcher

YIELDS on government securities (GS) climbed last week on market expectations of faster inflation in the coming months.

GS yields, which move opposite to prices, went up by an average of 8.64 basis points (bps) week on week, based on the PHP Bloomberg Valuation (BVAL) Service Reference Rates as of Feb. 19 published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

At the secondary market, the yield on the 364-day Treasury bills (T-bills) increased by 6.4 bps to 1.4963%. On the other hand, the 91- and 182-day T-bills saw their yields decline by 12.49 bps (to 0.8495%) and 8.84 bps (1.0605%), respectively.

Rates at the belly of the yield curve picked up, with the two-, three-, four-, five-, and seven-year debt papers closing the week higher by 13.26 bps (1.9958%), 17.46 bps (2.3448%), 20.79 bps (2.6379%), 23.26 bps (2.8712%), and 25.23 bps (3.1365%), respectively.

At the long end, the 10-year Treasury bonds (T-bonds) gained 17.51 bps to finish at 3.289%. Meanwhile, the rates of the 20- and 25-year T-bonds declined by 1.9 bps (4.0466%) and 5.65 bps (4.0171%), respectively.

“Reason for the uptick really is elevated inflation that is feared may extend for a number of months,” Security Bank Corp. Chief Investment Officer for Trust and Asset Management Group Noel S. Reyes said in an e-mail.

“Transport cost will be high with oil near $60, but at the end of January, it was only at $52. Peso was also weaker in the second half of February which can add to import costs,” Mr. Reyes said.

The peso closed at P48.45 against the dollar on Friday, lower by 40.6 centavos compared with a week ago.

Meanwhile, headline inflation picked up to 4.2% in January, the fastest pace recorded in two years or since January 2019’s 4.4% due to faster increases in the prices of food and transportation.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its average inflation forecast for this year to 4% from 3.2% previously.

Mr. Reyes added that the government’s offering of three-year retail Treasury bonds (RTB) is “looking to be a large issue as the government is not capping the size yet.”

The government sold an initial P221.218 billion in three-year RTBs at the rate-setting auction on Feb. 9, with total bids reaching P284.183 billion. The debt papers fetched a coupon rate of 2.375%, 200 bps lower than the 4.375% rate quoted for the RTBs sold in February 2020. The offering is set to run until March 4, unless closed earlier.

Meanwhile, a bond trader likewise pointed to heightened inflation expectations as a primary factor for last week’s yield movement, but added that the market also reacted to the volatility in US Treasuries.

“Catalysts [this] week would be the budget balance and the final amount of money that can be raised by the BTr in the RTB offering. If they are not able to raise money now, the market may take it as a sign that it will have to issue more,” the trader said via Viber.

Security Bank’s Mr. Reyes expects government debt yields to continue increasing in the coming weeks.

“[T]he curve is still on a steepening path that even the T-bills auction may succumb to a widening trend and come out higher by 5 to 10 bps,” he said.

RCEF capable of offsetting Rice Tariffication law income losses

FARMERS have exaggerated the revenue losses resulting from rice tariffication, a government think tank said, adding that any such losses can be made up for by properly-targeted use of the industry modernization fund.

The Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) estimated the average income lost by poor families due to the Rice Tariffication law at P2.1 billion a year in the 2022-2024 period.

This is widely divergent from the estimates provided earlier by the Federation of Free Farmers, which claims that farmers lost P40 billion in the first year of the law, while consumers saved P232 million with the fall in retail prices after imports were liberalized.

“Rice tariffication ultimately causes an increase in income poverty, across a variety of measures, geographic categories, and time. However, the increase in income poverty comes in small increments and diminishes over time,” PIDS said Friday in a policy note, “Does rice tariffication in the Philippines worsen income poverty and inequality?”

Republic Act (RA) No. 11203 or the Rice Tariffication Law signed in 2019 liberalized rice imports but imposed a tariff of 35% on shipments of Southeast Asian grain, which will provide capital for the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF), which will finance the modernization of the industry.

PIDS said the law resulted in lower farmgate palay prices and rice retail prices, with the former affecting the incomes of households that depend on rice farming.

It said cash transfers and other financial assistance under the RCEF should be sufficient to offset the estimated foregone income of farmers at P2.84 billion or less each year.

“This amount is far below the P60 billion, which is the minimum amount allocated for the Rice Fund under RA 11203. The Rice Fund even exceeds the total income difference cumulating over the 12-year scenario, which is equivalent to only P16.8 billion. Therefore, if properly targeted, the Rice Fund budgeted in the tariffication law is more than enough to offset the impact of tariffication on income poverty,” it said.

The government allocates P10 billion to the RCEF each year for six years starting 2019 to help farmers buy affordable seeds, operate farm machinery, have better access to credit and improve their technological know-how.

“Further research is needed to look into the Rice Fund programs and their impact on the rice industry at the grassroots (farm operators, farmworkers, and other entrepreneurs and workers in the value chain),” PIDS said. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Style (02/22/21)

Expert weaver to lecture in online workshop

JOSEFA Garlitos, a handloom weaving technology expert and a Resident Weaver at the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Textile Research Institute, will talk about textiles and weaves in an online workshop to be conducted on Feb. 27 at 2 p.m. She will introduce the fundamentals of handloom weaving, the parts and functions of the loom, as well as its various motions and the flow processes of the art. Participants will gain a deeper appreciation of the craft with an in-depth analysis and understanding of different kinds of indigenous weaves. The focus will be on hablon, a hand-woven fabric made of locally made fibers such as piña, abaca, and cotton, plus binakol, a Filipino pattern hand-woven on a small scale. Hosted by the Museum of Contemporary Art and Design (MCAD) of the De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde, the lecture is in line with the Cone of Concern, the first solo exhibition of celebrated South Korean artist Haegue Yang currently available on view. For more information about the workshop guidelines and to discover more about the exhibit and other related public programs, visit www.mcadmanila.org or follow @MCADManila on social media platforms.

M&S denims now made with less water

MANUFACTURING denim often has a negative impact on the environment, with cotton being resource intensive due to its high consumption of water and chemicals. It is estimated that up to 2,000 liters of water is used to produce just one cotton shirt. This is the same amount an average person drinks in three years. Now Marks and Spencer (M&S) has partnered with Jeanologia, a leader in finishing technologies, to use 86% less water for its denim production (compared to the garment finishing process industry average as stated by Jeanologia). Not only are M&S jeans made with less water, but 100% of the polyester used to make their supersoft denim is made from recycled plastic bottles. Each pair uses the equivalent of 10 plastic bottles. Before the new denim initiative, M&S was already using materials that are 100% responsibly sourced with the majority coming from the Better Cotton Initiative (BCI), the first British retailer to do so. BCI is the largest cotton sustainability program in the world, and has helped two million cotton farmers in 21 countries increase profits by training them to reduce the use of fertilizer, pesticides, and water. Aside from sustainable production, M&S ensures sources are organic and fairtrade. With most of cotton production associated with human rights violations, the retail giant has zero tolerance on issues such as slavery, child labor, discrimination and harassment, and has been recognized as a leader for tackling modern slavery in the Global Governance FTSE 100 league table and making sure that suppliers pay a fair wage to workers.

Birch trees inspire Seiko watches

A NEW Grand Seiko watch powered by a high-beat movement offers a new perspective on the nature of time. The dial is inspired by the slender and beautiful white birch trees that thrive in northern parts of Japan and that grow in profusion near the Grand Seiko Studio Shizukuishi where this watch is made. With its intricate texture, fine detail, and delicate subtlety, this new timepiece is a window that opens onto the distinctive natural environment of Japan and the exquisite craftsmanship of Grand Seiko. This high-beat watch is powered by the revolutionary Caliber 9SA5, which offers a power reserve of 80 hours thanks to its enhanced energy efficiency. First presented in 2020, Caliber 9SA5 incorporates three significant developments: the entirely new Dual Impulse Escapement, the Grand Seiko free-sprung balance, and the horizontal gear train which together set a new standard in high-beat horology. While offering advanced functionality, the caliber is slimmer than ever, giving the watch a slender profile. This Hi-Beat 36000 watch will be available in March at Grand Seiko Boutiques and selected retail stores worldwide.

Athleisure staples available at Shangri-La Plaza

IN NEED of a wardrobe refresh? Leave some room for elevated basics that blend into today’s lifestyle such as sports luxe staples. At Shangri-La Plaza mall, visitors can shop for high quality pieces like sneakers, active apparel, and casual whites for running errands, working out, or simply lounging around. There are very good reasons why sports luxe is still very much in vogue. It’s comfortable and versatile, especially now that people tend to hop from one task to another. Basic pieces serve as a good foundation if one’s going for a look that marries comfort and luxury fashion, and there are tons to find at Armani Exchange. It offers high quality plain and graphic white shirts that can serve as a base for any look, and jogger pants that can go from home gym to the home office. Polo shirts strike a balance between comfort and style, perfect for dressing up or down, in true sports luxe style. Polo from well-loved brands Original Penguin, Polo Ralph Lauren, and Daniel Hechter are available at the mall. To find accessories that match an athleisure look, head over to Fila, which offers caps and bags like backpacks and fanny packs. Investing in a good pair of sneakers is a must now that everyone’s movements have been limited, but it’s also the quickest way to achieve that sports luxe look. Fila can be a good place to start looking for that one true pair. For classic white sneakers, check out options at Cole Haan. For something trendier yet still versatile, head over to Steve Madden to see their bold and stylish shoe collection. For sneakers that are also great for the outdoors, check out Columbia. Other brands mall guests should check out for sports luxe outfits include Porsche Design that offers sleek sportswear and Moressi that carries streetwear favorites like Supreme and Off-White. For inquiries, visit www.facebook.com/shangrilaplazaofficial. Follow the Shang on Instagram: @shangrilaplazaofficial.

Ayala Malls aims to inspire with #AwakenGratitude

FOR THE WHOLE month of February, Ayala Malls lined up online and in-mall activities designed to encourage everyone to contemplate and shift perspectives on everyday difficulties. The Gratitude Wall in Ayala Malls welcomes guests to express their love, care, and appreciation for those that have made things worthwhile. The Gratitude Wall gives mall-goers freedom to say what they have to say that would enliven their own spirits and uplift others who see it. Sending gifts is another way to show gratitude. A.N.A. (Ayala Malls Neighborhood Assistant) makes store purchases and delivery easy. For those who prefer to send gifts by themselves, customers can also take advantage of the DriveBuy pick-up service at Ayala Malls. Just purchase the item via A.N.A. first then pass by the DriveBuy stop for pick up. To help build habits of gratitude, Ayala Malls also hosts weekly initiatives to encourage the young and old to be mindful, to be thankful, and to be thoughtful. Mindful Mondays is about reflection, remembering those who made an impact and helped others, appreciating everyday heroes. Every week, a new question will appear on Ayala Malls social media pages as a guide on what to be thankful about for the day. Thank You Tuesdays is a weekly online challenge to tag a friend (or friends) whose presence has been a blessing in more ways than one. On Thoughtful Thursdays, Ayala Malls  surprises mall-goers with a treat for two from participating food and retail stores including TGIFriday’s, Fatfook, Brooklyn New York, YiFang, Mad Mark’s, Auntie Anne’s, Macao Imperial, Caramia, Musashi Maru, Adidas, World Balance, Cris Sports, ResToeRun, Bratpack, Penshoppe, Gourdo’s, Lock & Lock, Nature Republic, and Happy Skin. For more information about mall activity schedules and promotions, visit and follow @iloveayalamalls on Instagram and Ayala Malls on Facebook.

Violence cost the Philippines 4.1% of its GDP in 2019

Violence cost the Philippines 4.1% of its GDP in 2019

How PSEi member stocks performed — February 19, 2021

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, February 19, 2021.


Peso to rise on hopes of eased quarantine

THE PESO could bounce back against the greenback this week on hopes that more businesses could reopen by March.

The local unit ended trading at P48.451 per dollar on Friday, barely changed from its P48.50 close on Thursday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

Week on week, however, the peso shed 40.6 centavos from its finish of P48.045  per dollar on Feb. 11.

The peso’s slight appreciation on Friday was backed by the slight easing in the spike in global oil prices in the latter part of the week amid a supply disruption in Texas, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a text message.

Reuters reported that pump prices were down from Thursday to Friday as energy companies in Texas position to restart their operations that were shuttered by freezing weather and power outages.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.02 or 1.6% to $62.91 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude inched down by $1.28 or 2.1% to settle at $59.24. However, both the Brent and the WTI prices cumulatively gained 0.5% and 0.7% for the whole week.

Analysts estimated that up to 4 million barrels per day of crude production and 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas were slashed due to the disruptions caused by the extreme weather in Texas.

For this week, Mr. Ricafort said the market will watch out from the government’s decision on whether a further reopening of the economy could be possible by March.

He said a decision on the restriction measures could be given by President Rodrigo R. Duterte during his Monday briefing.

Members of the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases agreed to recommend putting the entire country under modified general community quarantine (MGCQ), which is the least restrictive lockdown level, Presidential Spokesperson Herminio “Harry” L. Roque, Jr.  said on Friday.

Most provinces in the country are already under MGCQ, with only areas such as Davao, Iligan, Tacloban, Batangas, Lanao Del Sur, the Cordillera Administrative Region, and Metro Manila still under the slightly tighter general community quarantine.

Meanwhile, a trader said peso-dollar trading will be affected by the expected release of the Bureau of the Treasury’s December cash operations report on Friday.

Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III earlier said the government’s budget deficit hit P1.36 trillion or about 7.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 as revenues slumped while spending increased due to the pandemic. This is more than double the 3.4% deficit-to-GDP ratio seen in 2019.

For this week, Mr. Ricafort gave a forecast range of P48.25 to P48.55 per dollar while the trader expects the local unit to move within the P48.30 to P48.50 band. — L.W.T. Noble with Reuters

PSEi seen to rise on likely easing of restrictions

STOCKS are expected to climb this week as the market anticipates the possible easing of quarantine restrictions and updates on the national vaccine indemnification fund.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went down by 76.77 points to close at 6,926.41 on Friday from its 6,991.01 close on Feb. 11.

The market’s average turnover increased by 21.93% last week to finish at 15.07 billion.

“The market ended the week lower mainly due to the delayed vaccine rollout, contrary to the expected start by [mid-February].” AB Capital Securities, Inc. Junior Equity Analyst Lance U. Soledad said in a Viber message on Friday.

Investors are waiting for the finalization of the country’s vaccine indemnification fund, which delayed the start of the government’s inoculation program.

The proposed COVID-19 Vaccination Program Act will not hold vaccine manufacturers liable for any negative side effects caused by the vaccine. It also seeks to provide a P500-million indemnity fund to compensate vaccine recipients affected with unforeseen side effects.

“Market was on downward consolidation this past week with reports of no substantial economic gain this year, with [the Philippines] among the highest COVID-19 infection rate in Asia at more than 1,500 daily [cases], while Chinese investors [were] still on [the] sidelines celebrating the New Year festivities,” Diversified Securities, Inc. Equity Trader Aniceto K. Pangan said in a text message on Saturday.

Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said investors were also wary due to the increased seismic activities of Taal Volcano.

Earnings reports of companies may affect market movement this coming week, analysts said.

“With the market rebound [on Friday] on bargain hunting as sentiment improved on preparation for vaccine rollout and the possible further easing of restrictions, market may further recover going [through] this week with Chinese investors coming back from vacation after New Year celebrations plus release of earnings of different listed companies seen better than 3Q 2020,” Diversified Securities’ Mr. Pangan said.

He expects the PSEi to move between 6,800 to 7,160 this week.

“[This] week, [investors] will take the lead of foreign flows following the MSCI rebalancing,” Regina Capital’s Mr. Limlingan added.

Meanwhile, AB Capital Securities’ Mr. Soledad said the market would close at 7,200 at best.

“[We] expect the index to hover between 6,800 to 7,200 as investors monitor developments regarding the indemnification fund, as well as the final decision if the whole country will be put under [modified general community quarantine],” he said.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte is expected to make a decision on quarantine restrictions this week. The country’s COVID-19 task force last week recommended the easing of the lockdown in the National Capital Region to increase economic activity. — K.C.G. Valmonte

COVID-19 vaccination: What we can learn from the great polio vaccine heist of 1959

We find ourselves at a precarious time in global health. Many people are anxiously awaiting their turn to receive a vaccine for COVID-19, yet roll-out is slow and disorganized, with many countries facing supply shortages.

The conditions are ripe for opportunists to exploit the situation. Reports of unethical line-jumping by wealthy elites have started to surface, while others warn of the potential for a black-market trade in vaccines.

This isn’t the first time people have waited anxiously for a vaccine. The looking-glass of history reveals the uneasiness of emotion that accompanies moments like these, as well as the dark consequences that can arise when evil-doers take advantage of them.

One case in particular stands out as an important lesson for today: when thousands of vaccine doses were stolen by armed men during a supply shortage in 1959.

It was the summer of 1959, when the last great epidemic of poliomyelitis swept across Canada. Québec saw the most cases that year, with the newspapers reporting over a thousand cases and 88 deaths.

Although the health authorities in Montréal warned the public about the seriousness of the summer epidemic, they also begged the populace to remain calm. This was far from comforting for parents who feared for their children.

Polio infection could cause permanent paralysis and was deadly in five per cent of cases. Montréalers rushed to the vaccine clinics, sometimes waiting for hours in the rain.

Vaccine production in Canada was limited to only two laboratories, with the majority being provided by Connaught Labs at the University of Toronto. This put intense pressure on vaccine supplies and Québec, like the rest of North America, soon faced a vaccine shortage.

By August, Montréal was waiting desperately for more vaccines. It was a great relief when a huge shipment of the cherry-red vials arrived from Connaught Labs at the end of the month. The supply was enough to cover the city, and the surplus was planned for redistribution across the province.

Yet the redistribution never came to pass. One man by the name of Jean Paul Robinson, a temporary vaccine worker, had found the circumstances too enticing. Robinson had been tasked with running vials between the various clinics. He knew there was a shortage and that people were desperate. He also knew where the main supply of vaccine was stored: at the Microbiology Institute in the University of Montréal.

At 3 a.m. on Aug. 31, 1959, Robinson and two accomplices broke into the university armed with revolvers. They first locked the night guard in a cage with 500 lab monkeys. The thieves then broke the lock on the massive refrigerator, looted all the cases of the vaccine and stole the guard’s car as the getaway vehicle. In the end, they made away with 75,000 vials, valued at $50,000 (equivalent to almost $500,000 today). Robinson rented an empty apartment building and stashed his prize.

The crime shocked the country. The next day, the city announced it had completely run out of its vaccine supplies. Reporters seized on the situation, publishing reports of desperate mothers turned away from vaccine clinics in vain.

The provincial police were called in, and a special four-man team of investigators was assembled. They began by interviewing the hapless night guard. He couldn’t identify the culprits — who had been wearing nylon leggings over their faces — but he did overhear them speak about transporting the vaccines. The conversation provided the only lead: it seemed that at least one of the men had been “familiar with medical terms.”

The police soon brought in a medical student for questioning. By the next day, they had seized a supply of fresh vaccine from the shelves of a Pont-Viau drug store. The confiscated vials displayed the same serial number as the missing supply. Yet questioning both the medical student and the druggist led the police nowhere, and over the next few days, all leads ran dry. Worse yet, it seemed that the city was facing an upswing in infections, with another 36 patients admitted to hospital.

Meanwhile, Robinson was trying to figure out what to do with his ill-gotten supply of vaccine. Keeping the product cold was a difficult task — if left unrefrigerated for too long, the vaccine would be useless. He filled the refrigerator (saving one shelf for beer), while the rest of the cases were simply left on the floor at room temperature. Although he had been lucky to sell 299 vials for a tidy sum of $500 to the druggist at Pont-Viau, dispensing with the rest of the vaccine was too risky.

Taking a chance that the police were more interested in recovering the vials than catching the culprit, Robinson placed a call to the public police line. Posing as a concerned citizen, he declared that he had seen a large amount of suspicious cases labelled “Connaught Laboratories” being loaded out of a car on St. Hubert Street in the East End.

The police quickly discovered the missing cases of vaccine, but before they could be used, the vaccines would need to be tested thoroughly. This process could take up to two months, meaning the vials could not be used despite the epidemic. Fresh shipments of the vaccine were not planned to arrive for a few more weeks.

The public met the outcome of the investigation with outrage, with the Montréal Star going so far as to speculate that the police had made a deal with the guilty parties in order to recover the vaccine. Truly, it declared, “in the history of justice in Canada, this case must be unprecedented.” The stolen vaccines were eventually cleared for general use in October.

For their part, the police were far from done investigating. They soon turned their attention to identifying the culprit. They discovered that the man who had provided the police tip was also the man who had sold the Pont-Viau druggist his 299 vials. Evidence continued to mount against Robinson when the janitor of the apartment building identified him. After denying all charges, Robinson fled. He was discovered three weeks later hiding out in a small shed on an “isolated backroad farm.”

Prosecuting Robinson turned out to be a much harder task, and the case eventually fell apart. Although one of his accomplices had originally identified Jean Paul Robinson as the mastermind of the heist, when the trial came around two years later, the witness recanted his original statement (he would later be charged with perjury).

Robinson himself proved imperturbable during courtroom interrogations. He painted himself a public-spirited citizen who had simply tried to “retrieve” the stolen vaccines from the true criminal mastermind: a mysterious man by the name of Bob. Robinson claimed that Bob had set the whole thing up before he had disappeared and escaped justice. The judge eventually ruled that although Robinson’s story was “strange and a little far-fetched,” in the end, “the Crown had not proven a case beyond a reasonable doubt” and he was acquitted.

As millions of people worldwide anxiously await the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccines, this case warns of the possible consequences of disorganized and poorly planned vaccine programs. Those looking to profit from mistakes, shortages and desperation are out there, and it is important that policy makers keep this in mind as vaccination programs are rolled out. – Reuters

Biden’s first month was a ‘honeymoon,’ but bigger challenges loom ahead

WASHINGTON – One month into the job, President Joe Biden is on the cusp of securing a bigger economic rescue package than during the 2009 financial crisis. He has wiped out his predecessor Donald Trump’s policies from climate change to travel bans, while the U.S. daily COVID-19 vaccine distribution rate grew 55%.

That may have been the easy part.

The White House’s broad strategy – avoid unwinnable political fights, focus on policies with mass voter appeal, and mostly ignore Republican attacks – will be increasingly difficult in the months ahead, Democrats and Republicans say, even as millions more are vaccinated and the economy rebounds.

“They’ve got some problems right around the corner,” said Jim Manley, once a top aide to former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Mr. Biden has made many of the changes he has clear authority to do by executive action. Landmines going forward include pushing laws on which the Democratic Party is divided, such as college debt relief, tax hikes and curbs on the energy industry.

Then there are the intractable policy fights that have defined American politics for a generation, including who can become a citizen, how easy it should be to vote, whether the government should pay for healthcare, and who should carry a gun.

Meanwhile, many tricky issues, from trade tariffs to China policy to tech oversight, are still under review at the White House.

 

DEMOCRATS UNITED?

Democrats are working to pass their economic stimulus package with or without Republican support before a critical mid-March deadline when expanded unemployment insurance expires.

The bill only needs a majority vote, because it will be passed as part of a process called reconciliation, but that requires every Democrat to side with the White House. Doubts are growing that the bill will include a provision raising the federal minimum wage to $15, which would sorely disappoint liberal Democrats.

“I’ve been shocked at how disciplined the Left has been; I’m not sure how much that’s going to last,” Mr. Manley said. “I can see there’s some fissures developing.”

Those cracks were on display when some Democrats, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, criticized Biden after he said told a Feb. 16 CNN town hall he disagrees with members of his party who want to forgive $50,000 in student debt.

A comprehensive White House-backed immigration bill unveiled on Feb. 18 is not expected to pass the Senate; the second-ranked Democrat, Dick Durbin, is among those suggesting a less-ambitious effort that focuses on immigrants brought to the United States as children.

Republicans are reshuffling after the Trump years, said Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist behind Senator Thom Tillis’ hard-fought re-election in North Carolina.

Biden could unite them by overreaching on taxes and spending, he noted, while doing too little on these issues will disappoint some of his Democratic base.

“He’s enjoying a honeymoon period, but everyone knows that honeymoon’s going to come to an end,” Shumaker said.

 

ELUSIVE REPUBLICAN SUPPORT

White House aides say the policy agenda they plan to push in the coming months has bipartisan voter appeal, and they believe Republicans in Congress could ultimately be forced to support it by their constituents.

“Is he going to be focused on winning every last Republican over? No, of course not,” said White House communications director Kate Bedingfield, a longtime Biden confidant.

“But is he going to reach out and speak to people on both sides of the aisle – is he going to work to put forward plans that meets the needs of people of both parties – yes, he absolutely is.”

Mr. Biden’s early polling numbers suggest that will be a challenge. Some 56% of Americans approve of his performance as president, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in mid-February, but just 20% of Republicans.

The White House’s bipartisan hopes lie in an infrastructure plan, still in the embryonic stages of development, that is expected to exceed the scale, scope and price tag of the roughly $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

The measure is almost certainly going to both expand the deficit and require some tax increases, measures expected to spur opposition. It is likely to be peppered with measures on climate change, and could also include Biden’s proposed subsidies for college, according to several people briefed on early conversations.

Putting the pieces together will be tough without a full senior staff, including Biden’s pick for budget director, Neera Tanden, whose confirmation has run into Democratic opposition from Senator Joe Manchin, who also opposed including the minimum wage in the stimulus bill.

Nonetheless, the Left’s expectations for Biden remain high.

“The administration came out bold and strong,” said Luis Hernandez, a youth gun violence prevention activist who met with senior administration officials last week. “There’s much more to be done.” – Reuters

Transport dep’t expects 65 railway contracts awarded by 2022

THE number of rail contracts to be awarded by the Department of Transportation (DoTr) is projected at 65 by 2022, more than double the current level.

“From just eight awarded contracts in 2006, the DoTr Railways Sector currently has 32 contracts, which will increase to 65 by the end of 2022,” the department said in a statement Saturday.

Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade and DoTr Railways Sector officials met with consultants and contractors Friday to discuss the processing of their payment claims.

The department said it is committed to “uphold its obligations to pay” the consultants and contractors “as quickly and efficiently as possible.”

“But in order to do so, they must submit their billings on time,” it added.

Ten process innovations for the claims system were presented during the meeting to facilitate “effective and efficient programming, monitoring, and processing and to support responsible, responsive, and transparent budget management, most especially due to the scale of railway projects under the ‘Build, Build, Build’ program,” it said.

Among the DoTr’s consultants and contractors in the railways sector are OCGlobal JV, Shimizu-Fujita-Takenaka-EEI JV, J-Trec and Sumitomo JV, China Railway Design Corp. and Guangzhou Wanan Construction Supervision Co. (CRDC-WACC), China Harbour Engineering Co., Shimizu Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Erigphi JV, Inc., CMX Consortium, Foresight-Soosung JV, DMCI, Marubeni-DMCI Consortium, Westrax JV, Sumitomo Corp., Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd. and Tonichi Engineering Consultants, Inc., BF Corp. and Foresight Development Surveying Company Consortium, Metro-Link JV, NSTren, Taisei-DMCI JV, Sumitomo Mitsui Construction Co., GCR Consortium, Hyundai-Megawide-Dongah JV, Acciona-Daelim JV, ITD, Acciona-EEI JV, and POSCO.

DoTr Undersecretary for Railways Timothy John R. Batan said last week that the government is expected to have built up a railway project pipeline of P1.7 trillion by its last year in office in 2022.

He said 91% of the projects will be funded through foreign loans or official development assistance, with P1.548 trillion provided by bilateral and multilateral partners Japan, the Asian Development Bank and China.

The P8-trillion ‘Build, Build, Build’ flagship program allocates about 21.7% to railways, 42% to other transportation infrastructure projects, 12% to water projects, 13% to social infrastructure, and the rest to power, information technology, government buildings and other works. — Arjay L. Balinbin

PHL regulation seen favorable for digital payments growth

THE regulatory environment in the Philippines will help accelerate the entry of more digital banks and payments companies, helping the country rise from low penetration rates in a region where the potential market is projected at $1.5 trillion, JP Morgan said.

In a report, the bank said regulatory frameworks for digital banking and payments are particularly advanced in the Philippines and Singapore, raising concerns for traditional banks.

“These are likely to drive the accelerated entry of digital banks, which could lead to concerns around market share for incumbents,” the report said.

“In this regard, large banks which are able to move faster in building digital offerings will gain a lasting edge,” it added.

JP Morgan’s $1.5 trillion regional market estimate covers the so-called ASEAN 6, six of the 10-member bloc’s largest economies — the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) issued its digital banking framework in November, recognizing a category distinct from traditional, branch-heavy lenders such as commercial, thrift, rural and Islamic banks.

BSP Deputy Governor Chuchi G. Fonacier said the central bank has received the first formal application for a digital bank license, which she partially identified as a partnership between domestic and foreign companies.

Currently, ING Bank-NV Manila and CIMB Bank Philippines are offering no-branch banking services centered on apps, offering high deposit rates as a main draw.

Only 29% of Filipino adults have accounts with formal financial institutions, which would translate to an unbanked adult population of about 51.2 million. The main obstacles to opening accounts are lack of funds and stringent Know-Your-Customer requirements in place at banks, pointing to gaps in basic documentation such as identity cards.

By 2023, the central bank has set a target of 70% of the adult population in possession of bank accounts.

Apart from online banks, the payments industry can also tap the growing market, JP Morgan said.

“All the companies compete for scale and… payments have the highest usage frequency in online financial services. This is key to enhancing user stickiness and developing cross-selling opportunities,” JP Morgan said.

Online payments accounted for 10% of the total volume of transactions in 2018, improving from 1% in 2013, according to estimates by the Better than Cash Alliance. By value, online transactions accounted for 20% of the total in 2018 from 8% in 2013.

The BSP has set a target of 50% of payments by volume and value to be made digitally by 2023, and is banking on the pandemic to be a catalyst for achieving this. — Luz Wendy T. Noble