Taiwan redesigns passport to avoid China confusion

September 2, 2020 | 4:43 pm

PEOPLE walk past the Taiwan flag in Taipei, Aug. 10. — REUTERS

TAIPEI — Fed up with being confused for China, amid the coronavirus pandemic and Beijing’s stepped-up efforts to assert sovereignty, Taiwan said on Wednesday it would redesign its passport to give greater prominence to the island’s name.

Taiwan has complained during the outbreak that its nationals have encountered problems entering other countries, as Taiwanese passports have the words “Republic of China”, its formal name written in large English font at the top, with “Taiwan” printed at the bottom.

The new passport, expected to come into circulation in January, removes the large English words “Republic of China”, though the name in Chinese characters will remain, and enlarges the word “Taiwan” in English.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said new passports were needed to prevent their nationals being mistaken for Chinese citizens, especially with the stepped up entry checks many countries have begun since the pandemic began.

“Since the beginning of the Wuhan pneumonia outbreak this year, our people have kept hoping that we can give more prominence to Taiwan’s visibility, avoiding people mistakenly thinking they are from China,” Mr. Wu told reporters.

China claims democratic Taiwan as its sovereign territory, and says only it has the right to speak for the island internationally, a position it has pushed strongly during the pandemic, especially at the World Health Organization.

Taipei says this has confused countries and led them to impose the same restrictions on Taiwanese travellers as on Chinese, and has minimized Taiwan’s own successful efforts to control the virus and far lower case numbers.

Taiwan has been debating for years who it is and what exactly its relationship should be with China – including the island’s name. But the pandemic has shot the issue back into the spotlight.

The government is also considering a name change – or at least a full redesign – for Taiwan’s largest carrier, China Airlines, again to avoid confusion with China. — Reuters

Look it up: 2020 events spark upheaval at online dictionary

September 2, 2020 | 3:42 pm

NEW YORK — Dictionary.com, which boasts 70 million monthly users, on Tuesday announced its biggest ever revision, with more than 15,000 words updated, many to reflect the social upheaval and racial unrest of 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic gripping the world added a raft of new words to many English speakers’ everyday vocabularies, from technical labels like “asymptomatic” to behavioral terms like “social distance.”

“The unprecedented events of 2020, from the pandemic to the protests, have profoundly changed our lives — and language,” Dictionary.com said in a press release.

Many of the more than 15,000 words that have been added or updated on Dictionary.com could be gathered under a single word: “respect.” They reflect changing ways society addresses race, sexual orientation, mental health and other issues.

The website is capitalizing “Black” in its entries and created a separate entry for a Black person, which “aligns with the practice of using capital letters for many other ethnic groups and national identities, e.g. Hispanic,” Dictionary.com said.

The George Floyd protests against racism and police violence “sparked a surge of searches that spoke to the power and passion of the cultural moment,” Dictionary.com said.

Outreach from the gay community resulted in the decision to use “gay, gay man or gay woman” to replace references to “homosexual” and to substitute “gay sexual orientation” for “homosexuality,” Dictionary.com said.

“Homosexual” and “homosexuality” were terms once perceived as scientific and unbiased but have become “associated with pathology, mental illness and criminality, and so imply that being gay — a normal way of being — is sick, diseased or wrong,” Dictionary.com said.

The changes include 650 new entries, 2,100 new definitions, more than 11,000 revised definitions and 1,700 new pronunciations. The update involves 1,200 new etymologies and more than 7,000 revised etymologies, which explain how a word came into existence and how its meaning may have changed throughout history. — Reuters

Coffee, ketchup and Nike Air Max: it’s the COVID consumer economy

September 2, 2020 | 3:41 pm

Instant coffee, ketchup, Lululemon yoga pants, and Nike Air Max sneakers are all in. Bottled water, pricey diapers, and Burberry luxury trench coats are out.

Welcome to America’s pandemic consumer economy. And it’s like nothing we’ve seen before.

“Everything we knew about supply and demand, we can essentially throw out the window because consumer behavior has changed completely,” said Piotr Dworczak, assistant professor of economics at Northwestern University.

A Reuters analysis of a varied basket of goods shows how the COVID-19 crisis has upturned a decades-old consumer model for everything from clothing to food. This has given some companies surprising power to raise prices or withdraw discounts.

Many of the new trends can be attributed to one factor, according to retail specialists: working from home.

Almost overnight, a consumer-driven economy with clearly delineated work and home spending, changed profoundly. Rising demand for certain items, as well as global supply-chain disruptions, has driven up prices.

Americans are now shelling out significantly more than a year before for coffee, eggs, sliced ham, ketchup and cheese, for example, according to the Reuters analysis of the latest pricing data from Nielsen Co, the Brewers Association, and StyleSage Co.

Yet it’s a complex picture, and some of the changes in behavior seem counter-intuitive during a time of deep economic uncertainty.

Demand and prices have also increased for more expensive, or “splurge”, items like $106 men’s Nike Air Max sneakers, $105 Lululemon yoga pants and even a $1,500 Louis Vuitton handbag.

Economists put this apparent discrepancy in behavior down to the fact that many people, unable to spend outside, have more cash in hand. Even many workers on furlough are receiving jobless benefits that match their wages under a federal stimulus plan.

“If I were to consider the consumer situation right now, in a strange way, they may have more disposable income, if they kept their job,” said Nirupama Rao, an assistant professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. “Of course we’re facing mass layoffs, but the bulk of people have maintained their wages and earnings.”

‘UNPRECEDENTED PRESSURE’
Shoppers paid roughly 8% more on average for JM Smucker’s instant coffees, including Folger’s and Dunkin’, at brick-and-mortar stores in the four weeks to Aug. 8 versus a year before, according to Nielsen data analyzed by Bernstein.

They shelled out nearly 10% more for Kraft Heinz sauces and about 5% extra for Tyson Foods’ sliced hams.

Such inflation might make commercial sense, given the bump in demand for home staples. But some consumer experts complain retailers and big brands are cutting back on promotions and using their power to shore up profits during a health crisis that has led to millions losing their livelihoods.

“Brand manufacturers have been fattening their pockets with profits while putting unprecedented pressure on the consumer who has to pay those higher prices,” said Burt Flickinger, retail consultant at Strategic Resource Group.

JM Smucker said it did not raise prices of its instant coffees in the four weeks to Aug. 8, but did cut back on some promotions for in-demand products. Kraft Heinz declined to comment, but said during earnings in July that second-quarter prices went up as it pulled some offers and discounts for scarce products. Tyson did not respond to a request for comment.

Other industry experts point out that companies have had to grapple with costly production shifts to adapt to the new landscape. They note that before the pandemic, when costs were lower and there were more promotions and discounts, prices of Heinz sauces were declining.

Pre-COVID-19, tens of millions of commuters grabbed a coffee to-go en route to work. Suddenly, instead of 20-pound (9.1 kg) bags of coffee for restaurants, or large containers of ketchup, producers have had to switch to smaller, home-use packaging.

As ketchup, mayonnaise, and vinegar sales surged, Kraft Heinz diverted resources to running these production lines around the clock, while suspending others. It added extra shifts for factory workers to make grocery-sized bottles.

Egg suppliers, like market leader Cal-Maine Foods Inc , have had to overcome a shortage of cartons.

“If you look at eggs, before they’d be powdered to send to restaurants and now they have to be put in cardboard containers to go to supermarkets,” said Daniel Bachman, senior US economist at Deloitte. “It took a high price to induce the change.”

Yet consumer companies cannot take demand for granted and can be burnt by raising prices.

Prices for bottled water and disposable diapers have gone up, while demand has fallen for most of the pandemic. People are unwilling to pay out extra when they can drink their own water at home, and can opt for reusable or cheaper generic diapers at a time when there’s a lack of child daycare, some economists say.

“You’re at home anyway so you’re not sending your child off somewhere in a diaper that fails,” said Ms. Rao.

A $2,245 COAT, ANYONE?
Lockdowns have meant many Americans do not travel, eat out, or go to movie theaters. As they have not been commuting or taking kids to school, many are using less gas in their cars.

So they can now splash out on other things, perhaps.

Michael Collins, a professor at the University of Wisconsin’s consumer science department, calls this a “substitution effect.”

“It’s pretty clear people behave as if they have different pots of money,” he said. “Now I don’t eat out at all, so I have a couple of hundred dollars of new income not allocated to anything. I can substitute that money away from eating out and treat myself to other things.”

This effect could help explain the rise in demand and prices for the Air Max. Nike sold about 63% of their online stocks of the shoes in July, compared with only 10% a year earlier, according to apparel data company StyleSage which collects sales information from brand websites.

Air Max prices surged 10.5% on average versus a year before.

Prices for Lululemon’s yoga pants rose 7.2%, and about 45% of stocks were sold in July versus 15% the year before.

Meanwhile, the price of Louis Vuitton’s Neverfull MM Monogram handbag has risen 5% on its website since the start of May. In July, Louis Vuitton owner LVMH said sales momentum had picked up since June, even as its star label raised prices for a third time during the pandemic.

There are some limits, though.

Demand for a Burberry woman’s trench coat has declined, with only 3% of online stocks sold in July versus 14% a year earlier.

It’s a snip at $2,245, down 3.5%.

Nike and Burberry did not respond to requests for comment, while LVMH declined to comment beyond its July remarks. Lululemon said it hadn’t raised prices on some of its core yoga pant styles, including Align and Wunder Under, but had seen a significant rise in demand for yoga products since April. July sales reflected its “Warehouse Sale” offer that month.

HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?
Much remains uncertain.

The US epidemic and its economic consequences are moving targets, and it is unclear when — or even if — American life and consumer behavior will revert to “normal.”

The University of Michigan’s Ms. Rao said food producers had been reluctant to invest in permanent changes to retool factories. “They’re hindered by the fact there’s so much uncertainty as to how long this will last.”

Indeed, consumer demand, as well as brands’ pricing power, could change in the coming weeks and months as many Americans feel more financial pain.

The government’s first round of COVID-19-related benefits expired on July 31, leaving about 30 million unemployed Americans without the $600 weekly boost that sustained their households and promoted some discretionary spending.

With the money spigot turned off, analysts say recessionary spending behavior should take hold, with consumers cutting back.

The University of Wisconsin’s Collins said loan forbearance on mortgages, credit cards and student loans since the spring had also helped consumers.

“Eventually that will all end, and people could start to tighten up again.” — Reuters

Facial recognition and bathtime bookings: How China’s universities are reopening

September 2, 2020 | 2:37 pm

Surveillance systems installed in university campuses call for dozens of cameras that can collect facial data and temperatures, as well as notification systems that require students to enter information multiple times a day. Image by Cody Logan / Wikimedia Commons

BEIJING — As COVID-19 cases in China sink to new lows, the world’s largest population of university students is heading back to campus in a migration defined by lockdowns, patriotic education and cutting-edge surveillance equipment.

The highly choreographed return comes as Chinese universities revert to in-person instruction for the fall semester after months of pandemic controls.

Some universities have strict rules governing how students eat, bathe, and travel. Students in Beijing, Nanjing, and Shanghai told Reuters that they must submit detailed movement reports and stay on campus.

“But they haven’t yet told us the specific application process or what reasons will be considered reasonable,” said one student at Beijing’s Renmin University.

Renmin University did not respond to a request for comment. A notice on its social media account confirmed students must apply to leave campus.

At the same time, government procurement documents show dozens of universities have purchased “epidemic control” surveillance systems based on facial recognition, contact tracing and temperature checks.

There are more than 20 million university students in China, and most live on campus in shared dorm rooms, presenting a challenge for health authorities.

On Chinese social media, students have chafed at the controls, which mirror restrictions on the wider population during the height of the outbreak in March.

Responding to the criticism last week during a media briefing, officials from China’s Ministry of Education said that the measures weren’t compulsory for universities, but that students should not leave campuses unless necessary.

They also said “patriotic health campaigns” would be key to successfully reopening universities, and said lessons in “anti-epidemic spirit”, including the “touching deeds” of medical workers, were compulsory.

HI-TECH SURVEILLANCE
Procurement documents posted online in the past two months by dozens of Chinese universities give insight into campus life in the COVID era, detailing technology systems designed to bar outsiders and collect students’ data.

Many systems call for dozens of cameras that can collect facial data and temperatures, as well as notification systems that require students to enter information multiple times a day.

“All of a sudden we found dozens of cameras in our dorm building, six on each floor,” said a student at Peking University, who asked to remain anonymous.

“It’s like someone is watching you from when you wake up to when you go to sleep,” said another Peking University student surnamed Mei, who found cameras in her dorm when she returned this month.

Peking University did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

One system at the University of Science and Technology Liaoning cost 429,000 yuan ($62,376) and uses cutting-edge facial-recognition temperature cameras that can spot people without masks, bidding documents show.

The platform compiles a daily “body temperature report”, and stores students’ historical temperatures for 30 days.

Nanchang University in Jiangxi province spent 158,000 yuan on a system that tracks and saves data on students’ movements using their national ID numbers and facial recognition.

A system at Tianjin Normal University collects details on students’ families, the addresses of places they visit off campus and how they get to the university.

It can also send reminders to students and teachers, and those who don’t respond can be flagged to university personnel. Students who spoke to Reuters confirmed a variety of daily reporting requirements.

SHOWER BOOKINGS
The new rules have also given rise to more mundane challenges, students said.

Students returning to Nanjing University said they struggled to book time in the dormitory showers between disinfection rounds.

“Many students can’t wash,” said one Nanjing student surnamed Liu, adding that some sneak in without booking.

Several students said the rules could be flouted. Liu said temperature checks at campus gates were lax, with gate guards waving their thermometers from a distance.

Others said they feared the new surveillance tech would outlast the pandemic.

“I think there is that concern among students, but there’s no option but to accept it,” said Mei, the student at Peking University. — Reuters

Stolen Fortnite accounts sold as part of $1 billion black market

September 2, 2020 | 2:26 pm

Tens of thousands of Fortnite accounts are being sold online daily in a black market for stolen video-game accounts that generates $1 billion annually, according to a report from Night Lion Security, which helps companies identify vulnerabilities.

Criminals are using automated tools that can check 500 accounts a second to discover if login credentials stolen in various recent data breaches unlock any Fortnite accounts. Some Fortnite accounts have valuable skins—changing the appearance of a player’s avatar—and can sell for thousands of dollars, said Vinny Troia, who runs Night Lion. An average account sells for $200 to $250, he said.

“They can’t keep up with demand for certain accounts,” Mr. Troia said. “They resell it to people wanting to play the game with that account. Maybe somebody just doesn’t want to spend 100 hours of effort to get there.”

Fortnite, a cartoonish fight-to-the-death battle royale where players thrash one another in a struggle for weapons and resources, has grown into a worldwide phenomenon since its launch in 2017. It has more than 350 million registered players.

Account takeovers are a common problem among both social-networking and gaming sites. But gaming accounts can be more valuable, due to the virtual items they hold.

While Fortnite’s developer, Epic Games Inc., prohibits sale of accounts, some users do so in violation of policy—and some then ask the company to recover them.

Epic uses technology such as captcha, IP reputation and machine learning to “identify threats in seconds,” the company said. “Epic Games takes a sophisticated layered approach to protect our players,” it said. The company will “proactively block login attempts and automatically take action to secure any compromised accounts we identify,” according to a statement.

For its report, Night Lion talked with illegal distributors and stores that sell game accounts. Distributors market batches of thousands of accounts on services like Telegram and Discord. Owners of shady websites buy them, allowing consumers to simply find them by Googling “Fortnite accounts for sale.” One seller hawks $20,000 worth of Fortnite accounts a day, Mr. Troia said.

Hacked accounts from competing games like Roblox, Microsoft Corp.’s Minecraft and Jagex’s RuneScape are popular as well, Mr. Troia said. The four games add up to about $700 million in hacked account sales a year, he estimated, while the rest of video games round off the figure to $1 billion.

“Roblox, RuneScape, and Minecraft are three games that appear even more profitable,” the report said.

All the games have received a major boost thanks to pandemic-related lockdowns in the spring. As more people are spending more times playing, purchases of hacked accounts have ballooned, Mr. Troia said.

“Because of COVID, the demand has gone way up, there’s a general supply issue,” Mr. Troia said.

Night Lion shared its report, listing some websites peddling game accounts, with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Mr. Troia said. — Bloomberg

ByteDance chief reconsiders TikTok options after new China rules

September 2, 2020 | 1:24 pm

As Donald Trump threatened to ban the US operations of the hit app TikTok, Chinese parent ByteDance Ltd.’s choices seemed to be limited to selling the business for $20 billion to $30 billion or leaving empty-handed.

But after China signaled it will get involved in any deal’s approval, ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming is reconsidering his options and weighing the implications of Beijing’s involvement, according to people familiar with the matter. The company’s regulatory team and deal negotiators are huddling to discuss whether it’s still possible to craft a sale that can win approval from both governments, an acquirer, venture investors and ByteDance itself, said one of the people, asking not to be named because the matter is private.

Microsoft Corp. and Oracle Corp. have been deep in negotiations to buy TikTok US, submitting proposals while seeking reassurances from Washington that the Trump administration would bless their purchases. Microsoft is working on its bid with Walmart Inc., while Oracle has won support from venture backers such as Sequoia Capital.

But Beijing’s last-minute entry into the process raises the odds that Zhang will hold on to the US operation beyond the stated American deadlines or even back out of a deal altogether. It’s likely the need for approval in Washington and Beijing—along with the already complex negotiations—will push any final deal beyond the November elections in the US in any case, a person familiar with the matter has said.

“I’m not sure price matters as much as pride,” said Rebecca Fannin, author of Tech Titans of China, and founder of Silicon Dragon Ventures. “From the start, Zhang wanted to build a global company. Without the US market, he can’t fulfill those ambitions. He’s a maverick, fiercely independent-minded entrepreneur. He may just decide not to do the deal at all.”

Talks are fluid and it’s still possible Zhang will proceed with a sale, the people said. He could also negotiate a deal with an acquirer, then not complete the transaction because of government demands.

The 37-year-old coder-by-training is something of a lone wolf in China’s tech industry, refusing to take money from rainmakers Tencent Holdings Ltd. or Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. He endured a succession of crackdowns yet managed to groom Douyin, TikTok’s Chinese cousin, into a rising Internet star in the country. A fighter by nature, Zhang has several reasons to resist a TikTok sale in the clash with Trump.

He and his company don’t need the money. Privately held ByteDance is already worth $140 billion, according to startup tracker CB Insights, and is said to have generated more than $3 billion of net profit on more than $17 billion of revenue in 2019. Investment bankers had begun pitching Zhang’s team on going public in China or Hong Kong, even amid growing scrutiny in the US

Local demand for initial public offerings from technology companies is white-hot, with first-time share sales likely to surpass the heights of the dot-com bubble. Zhang stands to make billions no matter what happens with Trump.

Just as important, if he sells the US business, he can never get it back. Zhang would be relinquishing control over an asset that boasts upwards of a 100 million users in the US and is on the cusp of monetizing that base. If TikTok gets banned in the US, the immediate outcome is it vanishes from Apple and Google app stores and software updates halt. Depending on how the US Commerce Dept. defines Trump’s executive order, the sanctions could also cut off TikTok’s access to the local cloud services vital to maintaining data and streaming service.

But industrious American teens can still side-load the app, working around domestic restrictions to get software from abroad. In the meantime, TikTok can keep operating in the rest of the world (apart from India, where it is already banned) and build up the business further. It also leaves open the possibility of re-entering the US if political dynamics change.

Separately, ByteDance is taking advantage of US courts to see if it can stall Trump’s ban. Come November, there could be a new administration in power that may not regard shuttering TikTok as a high priority, not when the US economy is reeling and Washington battles Beijing on a number of other geopolitical fronts from the South China Sea to trade and Taiwan.

“Zhang is betting on a court injunction to get the case past deadline and hopefully even past the Trump presidency,” said Xiaomeng Lu, a senior analyst, geo-technology for the Eurasia Group. “His last hope is that the US legal system still functions as a guard rail when the white house malfunctions.”

Beijing’s involvement could end up benefiting Zhang. China’s assertion that its regulators will weigh in on any TikTok asset sale could give Zhang a possible out, said Ding Chenling, a tech entrepreneur who said he has known the ByteDance founder for a half-decade. It could take up to 30 days for Beijing to greenlight ByteDance’s application to sell tech to a foreign acquirer, which means it may well pass Trump’s target for banning TikTok.

“He thought that by making a promise to follow international standards or rules he would be able to escape the regulation or the kind of pressure from the American government,” said Ding. “But I think now he realizes he might have been wrong and that if he doesn’t want to sell the company, the only one who can help him is the Chinese government—which is what he’s tried to avoid the past few years.” — Bloomberg

Malaysia to bar long-term pass holders from India, Indonesia, Philippines

September 2, 2020 | 12:57 pm

KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia on Tuesday said it would bar entry of long-term immigration pass holders from India, Indonesia, and the Philippines from Sept. 7, in a bid to curtail imported coronavirus cases amid a spate of new clusters in the country.

Health authorities in Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy have recorded over 9,300 cases as of Tuesday, and 128 deaths, with new cases found in clusters detected in at least four states.

The entry ban on pass holders from the three countries will include permanent residents, expatriates, students, and those on spouse visas and participants of Malaysia’s My Second Home program, senior minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said.

“The decision was made on the advice of the health ministry to clamp down on the spread of imported COVID-19 cases,” Ismail Sabri said in a televised news conference.

India is the third most affected country by the pandemic behind the United States and Brazil, with its coronavirus tally reaching nearly 3.7 million on Tuesday.

A total of 7,505 people have died of the coronavirus in Indonesia, the highest in the region, while the Philippines, which has reported over 224,000 cases, has seen a continuous rise in infections. — Reuters

Facebook sends world a warning with threat to Australian news

September 2, 2020 | 12:36 pm

Facebook Inc. has flashed a warning to global regulators by taking a hardball stance against Australia’s plan to force it to pay media companies for stories.

The Australian government has drafted legislation to force the US tech giant and Google to compensate publishers for the value their stories generate for the platforms. Facebook lobbed a grenade on Tuesday seeking to hollow out the proposed law. If it passes, the company will block Australians and publishers from sharing news on Facebook and Instagram, an unprecedented step.

The scene is now set for an acrimonious battle after the Australian government said it won’t buckle to “coercion or heavy-handed threats.” The standoff has turned one of Facebook’s most distant markets, with a population of 25 million, into a test case as watchdogs around the world turn their own power against digital behemoths.

“This is a microcosm for other markets and what may happen as Facebook defends its turf,” said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities in New York. The company has come out “throwing punches,” he said.

Traditional media companies have long complained their content is being exploited by digital platforms without due compensation. The Australian government has said it’s trying to level the playing field as once-dominant publishers lose advertising revenue to Google and Facebook. In May, for example, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. announced plans to cut jobs and close or stop printing more than 100 local and regional newspapers in Australia.

The draft Australian law, which needs approval in parliament, calls for an arbitration panel to decide how much Facebook and Alphabet Inc.’s Google must pay publishers if the two sides can’t agree.

‘LINE IN THE SAND’

By pushing back in Australia, Facebook is telling other European regulators what to expect in disputes over the platform’s use of news, said Rob Nicholls, an associate professor at the business school of the University of New South Wales in Sydney. At the very least, Facebook wants to force a change in the legislation, or even delay its introduction, he said.

“If you draw a line in the sand here, you’ve effectively provided that benchmark for negotiations,” Mr. Nicholls said.

The chairman of Australia’s competition watchdog, Rod Sims, said in an interview in July that he knows of several counterparts overseas who are considering taking similar steps to Australia’s. Facebook’s explosive intervention follows recent gains by publishers in Europe against digital platforms.

GETTING THE NEWS

In April, France’s antitrust regulator ordered Google to pay media companies to display snippets of articles. Last October, Facebook introduced a separate news section, paying some publishers whose stories are featured. Last week, the company said it plans to expand the news section to other markets globally.

Facebook said in a blog post Monday that Australia’s legislation is based on the flawed assumption that it benefits most from its relationship with publishers. “The reverse is true,” Facebook said. Google also opposes the law, saying in an open letter it would “put the free services you use at risk in Australia.”

Nine Entertainment Co., publisher of the Sydney Morning Herald, called Facebook’s response to the proposed law “strange.”

“It is a demonstration of Facebook’s use of its monopoly power while failing to recognize the importance of reliable news content to balance the fake news that proliferates on their platform,” Nine said in a statement.

A spokesman for News Corp. in Sydney declined to comment. — Bloomberg

COVID-19 antibodies present in patients four months after recovery — study

September 2, 2020 | 9:48 am

Antibody levels against the novel coronavirus rose and then held steady for up to four months in more than 90% of recovered COVID-19 patients in Iceland, according to a study published on Tuesday.

In previous studies, antibody levels dropped sharply within a few months after COVID-19, raising questions about the duration of immunity that infection may provide.

The new finding may have implications for reinfection risks and vaccine durability, said Kari Stefansson, chief executive of deCode Genetics, which conducted the study.

To get a sense of how many people in Iceland had been infected with the new coronavirus and learn more about immune status after recovery, researchers measured antibody levels in more than 30,000 Icelanders.

Based on the results, they estimate that about 1% of the population had been infected. Of that group, 56% had received a confirmed diagnosis after a gold-standard polymerase chain reaction (PCR) laboratory test. Another 14% had not been formally diagnosed but had quarantined after exposure to the virus. In the remaining 30%, the antibody tests led to discovery of prior infection.

Among the 1,215 people with an infection confirmed by PCR, 91% had antibody levels that rose during the first two months after diagnosis and then plateaued, researchers reported.

The results, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, focused on a homogeneous population from a single country, so the findings may not be the same in other parts of the world with diverse populations.

Still, the study shows how careful antibody tests can determine the true prevalence of infection, Mr. Stefansson said.

An editorial that accompanied the study cautioned that it is unclear if recovered patients’ antibodies will protect them from reinfection.

However, it suggested that antibody tests may be a cost-effective alternative to infection testing alone, and may work better in surveying populations as countries look to safely reopen their economies and schools. — Reuters

Factory activity drops to 3-month low

September 2, 2020 | 12:33 am

THE Philippine capital’s return to a stricter lockdown in the first two weeks of August dampened manufacturing activity, which fell to a three-month low, IHS Markit said on Tuesday.

The IHS Markit Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slid to 47.3 last month from 48.4 in July, remaining below the 50-mark threshold that separates growth from contraction. August was the sixth straight month of declining factory output,

“The Philippines manufacturing sector headed into a steeper downturn in August as quarantine measures in a number of provinces were tightened. New orders fell sharply, as the latest PMI survey data indicated a second consecutive drop in production,” the statement read.

Metro Manila and the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Bulacan reverted to modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) from Aug. 2 to 18, in an effort to curb the rise in coronavirus infections. Laguna, Cavite and Rizal are part of the key industrial region of Calabarzon.

The headline PMI measures manufacturing conditions through the weighted average of five indices: new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), suppliers’ delivery times (15%) and stocks of purchases (10%).

The Philippines posted the second lowest PMI reading among six ASEAN countries, worse than the regional average of 49. Myanmar and Indonesia both saw factory output expand in August, with PMI readings of 53.2 and 50.8, respectively.

IHS Markit cited the contraction in output levels for a second straight month, and the continued decline in new orders since March when the coronavirus pandemic escalated.

The re-imposition of the MECQ negatively impacted demand in August, as some businesses had to cut operating capacity.

“New work inflows contracted sharply as movement was restricted, while some sectors were forced to operate at reduced capacity. The fall in new orders was the fastest seen in three months. Export sales also declined, but only at a modest rate as global COVID-19 restrictions were generally relaxed,” IHS Markit said.

The August drop in manufacturing production was faster than July’s, but softer than the contraction seen from March to May when most parts of the country were under a strict lockdown.

Employment dropped to its slowest pace in three months, but IHS Markit said job losses were still noticeable.

“Job losses remained apparent as firms continued to trim capacity at a steep rate to adapt to the new economic environment. Stocks were also reduced, extending the run of depletion to six months,” David Owen, an economist at IHS Markit, was quoted as saying.

IHS Markit noted the lengthening delivery times at manufacturing companies, which started in August 2019. The quarantine restrictions made it harder for companies to procure raw materials in time, it added.

Input prices climbed at the quickest pace since February 2019, as suppliers reported shortages and costs of imported goods rose.

This resulted in some factories increasing output charges to pass the higher costs onto consumers, but only at a “modest” uptick as businesses continue to offer discounts to boost sales.

“The outlook for the manufacturing sector remained subdued in August and was broadly in line with that seen in July. More businesses predict that output will improve in the year ahead than those expecting a decline, but confidence was much weaker than the series trend,” it said.

Mr. Owen said the sluggish business confidence may signal post-pandemic recovery remains uncertain.

Robert Dan J. Roces, chief economist at Security Bank Corp., said the decline in PMI was “relatively small” considering the MECQ lasted only two weeks. The National Capital Region remains under general community quarantine (GCQ) until Sept. 30.

“As we transition to GCQ, there’s a high chance that the PMI could bounce back near or above 50 to register a rebound while trade and production slowly improve,” Mr. Roces said via e-mail Tuesday.

Despite a broader recovery in emerging Asian economies, manufacturing activity in the Philippines dipped last month due to the tighter quarantine rules, said Capital Economics economist Alex Holmes.

“We suspect this (decline in PMI) will be short-lived for Vietnam, where the virus appears to already be back under control. But things are likely to take longer to recover in the Philippines,” Mr. Holmes said in a note on Tuesday, referring to Vietnam’s PMI of 45.7.

“Looking ahead, a slow recovery in external demand is likely to drive further small improvements in conditions for Asia’s export-orientated manufacturers. That said, it is still likely to be a long time before output consistently returns to pre-crisis levels,” he added.

The think tank Oxford Economics also has a dim outlook for the Philippine manufacturing sector.

“In our view, recovery prospects vary greatly across the region, with China, South Korea and Taiwan firmly in the lead, and India and Philippines trailing far behind in our forecasts,” Oxford Economics said in a note Tuesday. — B.M. Laforga

Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index of select ASEAN economies, Aug. (2020)

September 2, 2020 | 12:33 am

THE Philippine capital’s return to a stricter lockdown in the first two weeks of August dampened manufacturing activity, which fell to a three-month low, IHS Markit said on Tuesday. Read the full story.

Philippines seeks $600-million loan for 4Ps program

September 2, 2020 | 12:32 am

THE Philippines is seeking a fresh $600-million (P29.1-billion) loan from the World Bank (WB) to extend its conditional cash grants to poor families amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Documents from the World Bank showed the proposed Beneficiary FIRST Social Protection Project is expected to be approved on Sept. 15.

Proceeds of the loan will partially fund the proposed $10-billion (P485- billion) Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) in the next five years.

The project aims to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on low-income families and boost the Department of Social Welfare and Development’s (DSWD) social protection delivery systems.

The bulk of the funds or $580 million (P28.1 billion) will support the cash handouts under the 4Ps.

“This combines financing support for the DSWD to mitigate the negative welfare impacts of the COVID-19 on 4Ps households with longer-term resources to enable DSWD’s efforts to prepare for future shocks,” the document read.

Of the $580 million, $300 million (P14.5 billion) will be used immediately to disburse cash grants for 4Ps beneficiaries as the pandemic continues.

“Rapid financing would be disbursed against the statement of expenses for cash grants paid to 4Ps beneficiaries during the first year of the project implementation, given the urgent needs for funds during the response phase of the COVID-19 pandemic,” it said.

Around $280 million (P13.6 billion) is expected to be disbursed from the second year onwards, although it will depend on the achievement of performance targets.

The remaining $20 million (P970 million) will be used to modernize the payment delivery system of the DSWD, the main implementing agency of the program, and help it establish its own grievance redress system for beneficiaries.

The project will also support DSWD’s medium-term digital transformation strategy, development of its information technology system for assessment of recipients, and improvement of its database of beneficiaries.

The World Bank said the contingent emergency response component (CERC) currently has no funding allocation but will allow funds to be reallocated when needed.

“The government can request the WB to urgently activate CERC and reallocate the undisbursed balance to support the implementation of the government’s emergency plan. Additional financing can also be mobilized to fully or partially replenish the funds reallocated to the CERC in accordance with the WB’s requirements,” it said.

As the project aims to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, the World Bank warned of social risks such as delays in services, increase in student drop-outs, rise in child labor, and higher malnutrition among children.

“The Pantawid program has contributed to overall poverty reduction in the country, and has proven its consistent and lasting impacts on health/educational outcomes of children from poor households, as evidenced in various studies,” it said.

Poverty rate has steadily declined to 16.6% in 2018 from 26.6% in 2006, while the unemployment rate went down to 5.1% in 2019 before it surged to 17.7% in April at the height of the lockdown.

“The slowdown of the economy due to COVID-19 is likely to reverse the substantial progress in poverty reduction. The extended quarantine period has adversely affected jobs, particularly among informal workers, which had been fueling growth in household incomes among lower income groups,” it said.

Since 2008, the World Bank has been providing financial and technical support to 4Ps, the country’s flagship safety net program where cash grants were given to poor families to ensure their children’s health and education.

The World Bank said last month it will lend $1.9 billion in fresh loans to the country in the remaining months of the year to help the economy get back on track. It said three loans worth $1 billion will be approved this month.

From April to early August, the bank has released $1.67 billion in loans to the Philippines — $500 million for the government’s COVID-19 response, $500 million for disaster risk management and $200 million for social protection in budgetary support; and $470 million in two project loans. — B.M. Laforga

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