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Welcoming a new year

I WILL TRY to avoid using the word “positive” when referring to my outlook for 2021. It causes people to walk away with a look of dread. No use clarifying it’s not a medical term but an optimistic view of the coming year. How could it not be better than 2020?

Love it or hate it, this is our country. I will not allow others, including fellow countrymen living abroad, to denigrate it. It may be among the worst performing economies to get through the pandemic in terms of GDP drops. (Okay, it’s the last in class in the region.) The only way to go is up, or not farther down.

I will endeavor to think of the country’s good side to anyone who will listen.

There are nice tourist spots opening up slowly and mall parking tightening up. I will mention these in Zoom parties where Topic A, after the status of relatives in hospitals, seems to be — what’s wrong with us? I don’t need to share charts to show the not-so-V-shaped recovery.

Every company has unpleasant people and pushy clients (they are not always right). I will keep in mind that despicable people have mothers who love (or at least tolerate) them and bosses who hired them at a premium. Even with the rise of in-person meetings, with no more muting and canceling of videos, it doesn’t hurt to smile at them without looking pained.

If good fortune is the lot of others, I wish them well. Their pronounced contentment and new SUV has no effect on my self-esteem. This comes from within, needing no confirmation on how others are doing better. There are always a few who are worse off. Where are they now?

The last words that will escape my lips are — why don’t you lose weight? If people enjoy dessert, even after a test showing high blood sugar (it’s still within the upper normal range) it’s their life. People who brag about successful diet programs are bores — leave my fruit cake alone.

I will keep my sense of humor and find absurdity where I can. While I admit to being irritated by troll farms and the fake news and conspiracy theories they churn out, I will not be distracted by them. Do I need to read the posts of irritating but industrious pessimists in my Viber group?

Even if January is just a continuation of time, the artificial divide of a new calendar marks the turning of a new page. Decisions that have been deferred in the last year now need to be taken up and resolved. Okay, we can start building that new house now. (Do we still have the funds?)

With the vaccine within hailing distance (Over here, Nurse), there is reason to be cheerful. No mistakes have been made yet, no bad investments committed in the coming year. Even if it’s just a psychological reboot, as time is continuous and not really refreshed after midnight of the last day of the year of the plague, the feeling of being in control again can be reassuring. Self-delusion is the key to happiness.

Economists call the market optimism that a new year brings as the “January Effect.” It gives a boost of energy, a sense of temporary invincibility that 2021 will somehow be different in a positive (oops, that word again) way. The start of a new fiscal year is mildly intoxicating. It must be the alcohol from the small parties in the open air.

One now seldom sees the old representation of the bent old man exiting the scene wearing the sash of the old year (how did he get so ancient-looking in one year?) and a baby, sometimes with a horn, crawling confidently forward as the personification of the New Year. This analogue representation of the old and the new in the once favorite calendar or diary corporate giveaway has become obsolete.

Companies don’t even give away desk diaries anymore. Your phone has all your records, appointments, and pictures of memorable afternoons.

The New Year is a continuation of our life as a mini-series. This one has no ads, few villains, and no misfortunes too difficult to overcome. (Okay, there may be exceptions.) Perhaps, next year the face masks will be off, and we can see once more the faces of friends and people in the malls. Will they now be smiling?

 

Tony Samson is Chairman and CEO, TOUCH xda

ar.samson@yahoo.com

Dozens of HK activists arrested under security law as crackdown intensifies

REUTERS

HONG KONG — Hong Kong (HK) police arrested dozens of leading democratic activists on Wednesday on suspicion of violating the city’s controversial security law in the biggest crackdown yet against the opposition camp since Beijing imposed the law in 2020.

The dawn swoop of the most prominent pro-democracy advocates in Hong Kong was tied to an unofficial, independently organized vote in July 2020 to select opposition candidates for a since-postponed legislative election.

As part of the operation, police also searched the offices of a pollster and a law firm and went to the offices of media outlets Apple Daily, Stand News, and Inmediahk, according to local media.

The mass arrests, confirmed by the Democratic Party and individual social media accounts of dozens of other activists and politicians arrested, will further raise alarm that Hong Kong has taken a swift authoritarian turn.

The crackdown since the June 2020 imposition of the new security law, which critics say crushes wide-ranging freedoms, places China further on a collision course with the United States just as Joe Biden prepares to take over the presidency.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Mr. Biden’s pick for secretary of state Antony Blinken said on Twitter the arrests were “an assault on those bravely advocating for universal rights.”

“The Biden-Harris administration will stand with the people of Hong Kong and against Beijing’s crackdown on democracy.”

The arrests, which local media said amounted to more than 50 former lawmakers, activists and people involved in organizing the 2020 primary, included James To, Lam Cheuk-ting, Benny Tai and Lester Shum.

At the time, the local government and Beijing warned the unprecedented unofficial vote may violate the new law, saying a campaign to win a majority in Hong Kong’s 70-seat legislature with the purpose of blocking government proposals to increase pressure for democratic reforms could be seen as subversive.

That reasoning was cited by police when making the Wednesday arrests, according to the Democratic Party’s Facebook page and other social media accounts of those arrested.

Police did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The legislative election was due in September last year but was postponed, with authorities citing coronavirus risks. It is unclear who could run for the opposition in any future polls following the mass arrests.

Maya Wang, senior China researcher at Human Rights Watch, said the raids and arrests showed Chinese authorities were now “removing the remaining veneer of democracy in the city.”

Local media said the police operation included searches of the offices of the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) which helped organize the primaries. The organizers destroyed the data of the more than 600,000 people who voted immediately after ending the count.

Public broadcaster RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) said American lawyer John Clancey was arrested during a raid of law firm Ho, Tse, Wai & Partners.  

DISQUALIFICATIONS, EXILE
The security law punishes what China broadly defines as secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces with up to life in jail. When the law was introduced, authorities said it would only target a very small group of people in the former British colony of 7.5 million.

Authorities in Hong Kong and Beijing say it is vital to plug gaping holes in national security defences exposed by months of sometimes violent anti-government and anti-China protests that rocked the global financial hub in 2019.

Hong Kong was promised a high degree of autonomy unavailable elsewhere in China when it returned to Beijing rule in 1997 under a “one country, two systems” agreement.

In response to the law, Washington imposed sanctions on Hong Kong and Beijing officials and several countries suspended extradition treaties.

Since the imposition of the security law, leading pro-democracy activists such as media tycoon Jimmy Lai have been arrested, some democratic lawmakers have been disqualified, activists have fled into exile, and protest slogans and songs have been declared illegal.

“The suppression of political freedom and freedom of speech by the national security law has risen to another level,” said Nathan Law, an activist who fled to Britain.

“Hong Kong people must remember this hatred. Anyone who is still defending the national security law and making peace is the enemy of Hong Kong people.”

Joshua Wong, 24, one of Hong Kong’s most prominent democracy activists, was one of more than a dozen young, more confrontational politicians who outshone the old guard in the unofficial democratic primaries in 2020.

Mr. Wong’s Twitter and Facebook accounts said his house was raided by police on Wednesday morning.

Mr. Wong was jailed last year on separate charges for organizing and inciting an unlawful assembly during the 2019 anti-government protests. — Reuters

N.Korea’s Kim says economic plan failed ‘tremendously’

SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his five-year economic plan had failed to meet its goals “on almost every sector” as he kicked off a congress of the ruling Workers’ Party, state media KCNA reported on Wednesday.

The rare political gathering, which Kim last hosted in 2016, has drawn international attention as he is expected to unveil a new five-year economic plan and address inter-Korean ties and foreign policy. The congress, attended by 4,750 delegates and 2,000 spectators, comes just two weeks before US President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

In his opening speech, Mr. Kim said the country had achieved a “miraculous victory” by bolstering its power and global prestige since the last meeting, referring to military advances that culminated in successful tests in 2017 of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the US mainland and a series of meetings with US President Donald Trump.

But the five-year economic strategy he set forth in 2016 had failed to deliver, he said, urging North Korea’s greater self-reliance.

“The strategy was due last year but it tremendously fell short of goals on almost every sector,” Mr. Kim said, according to KCNA.

In his 2016 plan, Mr. Kim called for accelerating economic growth and expanding domestic sources of energy, including nuclear power, to boost electricity supplies. He also underscored the “byungjin” policy of parallel development of nuclear weapons and the economy.

While consolidating power with a series of military provocations and ruthless purges, Mr. Kim has been trying to build a “man of the people” persona by openly admitting some of his failures — once a taboo in a country that reveres an errorless, godlike leader.

Mr. Kim was even seen shedding tears as he thanked people for their sacrifices at a military parade in October.

“He seems to have made a strategic decision to admit economic failure as he can also blame the coronavirus,” said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy in Seoul.

“By doing so, he would also seek to cement his image as a people-loving leader.”  

On the pandemic, Mr. Kim lauded party workers for ensuring “stable situations against the coronavirus from beginning to end.”

“They had resolutely overcome difficulties in the face of an unprecedentedly prolonged, unparalleled global health crisis,” he added.

North Korea has not officially confirmed any coronavirus infections, although it reported thousands of “suspected cases” to the World Health Organization (WHO).

South Korean authorities have said an outbreak in the North cannot be ruled out as it had active trade and people movement with China before closing its border last January. —  Reuters

Video-on-demand subscriptions to reach two billion by 2025

Traditional broadcasters and hybrid monetization to drive growth

There will be nearly two billion active global on-demand video service subscriptions by 2025—a 65% increase over the end of 2020—according to a report released this January by Juniper Research, an analyst house specializing in digital technology market research. 

Driving this growth are traditional broadcasters who foray into streaming services to extend their reach and compete with online video players such as Amazon Prime Video.

Increased competition is also driving innovation of over-the-top (OTT) monetization models. An OTT is a streaming media service offered directly to viewers via the Internet. Traditional monetization models include TVoD/PPV (Transactional Video on Demand/Pay-Per-View) or SVoD (Subscription Video on Demand). Viewers either paid a one-time fee to watch, download, or rent content in Apple iTunes, Amazon Video, and Google Play, or monthly subscriptions with streaming service providers like Netflix.

In the Philippines, revenue in the Video-on-Demand segment is projected to reach $158 million this year, according to Statista, a provider of market and consumer data. SVoD is the largest segment of the market, with a projected market volume of $101 million for the same period. 

HYBRID MONETIZATION
Titled OTT TV & Video Streaming: Evolving Trends, Future Strategies & Market Forecasts 2020–2025 Research, the Juniper Research paper reported that traditional broadcasters are turning to hybrid services, or a combination of subscription- and advertising-supported monetization. It forecasts 273 million users of hybrid OTT TV subscription services by 2025, up from 115 million last year. It also anticipates these services to account for $1.4 billion in advertising spend in 2025.

“Thanks to this high level of market saturation, streaming providers need to keep their offerings competitive to retain subscribers,” said research co-author Nicholas Hunt in a press release. “Hybrid monetization is one way that Video on Demand (VOD) providers can keep their offerings low-cost, and therefore less likely to be dropped.”

An example of a hybrid service is the bundling monetization model, which Disney+ uses. It bundles its content together with ESPN, National Geographic, and other content producers. 

Mobile network operators such as T-Mobile, meanwhile, have been bundling Netflix for free for its family plan subscribers since 2017. 

Local providers offer similar bundled packages: Globe Telecom’s GoWATCH bundle includes video apps and sites such as YouTube, Netflix, Viu, and NBA League Pass. Smart, for its part, offers video streaming via its Video Every Day promo that includes YouTube, iflix, iWant, NBA League Pass, and Cignal Play. 

Streaming service providers are also expected to integrate hybrid monetization models further into their business plans. Providers will look beyond the subscription-only, ad-free model to hybrid monetization that offers a range of options to the consumer and a variety of revenue streams. 

NBCUniversal’s streaming service Peacock, for one, utilizes a hybrid monetization approach with its three tiers of service. The Free tier has a section of the content of the upper two tiers with targeted user advertising. The middle tier, Peacock Premium, has advertising but with the full library of content. The upper tier, Peacock Premium Plus, has the full library without ads. 

As Peacock’s chairman, Matthew Strauss, said in the report, “There was this belief in the industry that people did not want advertising or did not like advertising. That just is not true. Free, ad-supported content plays to our strength, and that has been where we focused.” — Patricia B. Mirasol 

China’s bottled-water king is now richer than Warren Buffett

Zhong Shanshan, chairman of Nongfu Spring Co., a bottled-water company that’s ubiquitous in China, dethroned India’s Mukesh Ambani as Asia’s wealthiest person last week and is close to entering the rarefied realm of individuals worth more than $100 billion. Image via Nongfu Spring

Zhong Shanshan is setting new wealth records.

The chairman of Nongfu Spring Co., a bottled-water company that’s ubiquitous in China, is now richer than Warren Buffett as his fortune surged $13.5 billion to $91.7 billion since the start of the year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Mr. Zhong, 66, is now the sixth-wealthiest person on the planet. Nongfu shares jumped 18% in the first two trading days of 2021, taking the advance since their September listing to 200%.

It’s only the second time a Chinese national has broken into the world’s Top 10—property tycoon Wang Jianlin hit No. 8 in 2015—and no one from the mainland has ever ranked this high on Bloomberg’s wealth index since it launched in 2012.

Nicknamed locally as the “Lone Wolf” for avoiding involvement in clubby business groups or politics, Mr. Zhong also took vaccine maker Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co. public in April. The stock has soared more than 2,500%.

Mr. Zhong dethroned India’s Mukesh Ambani as Asia’s wealthiest person last week and is close to entering the rarefied realm of individuals worth more than $100 billion. Mr. Buffett is outside that group with an $86.2 billion fortune, but the Berkshire Hathway Inc. founder has given away more than $37 billion of stock since 2006.

Investors are snapping up Chinese consumer shares as the country demonstrates it’s recovering from COVID-19, while analysts have grown increasingly bullish on Nongfu.

Mr. Zhong has also helped four relatives become billionaires. His younger sister, Zhong Xiaoxiao, and three of his wife’s siblings each hold a 1.4% stake in Nongfu worth $1.3 billion, based on the ownership listed in the company’s prospectus from last year. The firm has produced dozens of millionaires, including more of Mr. Zhong’s relatives and employees.

While COVID-19 upended much of the global economy in 2020, it was a good year for the world’s ultra-rich. The 500 wealthiest people added $1.8 trillion to their fortunes and were worth a combined $7.6 trillion by year-end. Mr. Zhong, the biggest winner from Asia, amassed more than $71 billion, the most after Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk and Amazon.com Inc.’s Jeff Bezos.

One notable exception is Jack Ma, until recently Asia’s richest person. He’s not been seen in public since Chinese regulators torpedoed Ant Group Co.’s $35 million initial public offering. His net worth has dropped about $10 billion since October and he’s now the world’s 25th-richest person. — Venus Feng and Pei Yi Mak/Bloomberg

Globe Subsidiary, Cascadeo, Wins Managed Services Provider of the Year

Globe’s recently acquired professional and managed services arm, Cascadeo, won Managed Services Provider (MSP) of the Year at the Channel Partner Insight Innovation Awards 2020.

“Whether it’s in the US or in the Philippines, Cascadeo sets the benchmark that today’s best services are powered digitally,” shared Peter Maquera, Cascadeo CEO and Senior Vice President for Globe Business. “We’re proud of Cascadeo’s recent achievement. Globe’s investment in the company strengthens its cloud-based services, enabling more customers to benefit from the Cloud. We’re fortunate that we embraced it early on. And now, we’re driven to share the successes we’ve gained with our enterprise clients.”

Despite the pandemic, Globe was able to complete its acquisition of Cascadeo in November 2020.  Globe Business has been working in tandem with Cascadeo to help enterprises build the necessary infrastructure for a digitally-driven future. Apart from playing a key role in providing Globe clients with cloud managed services, Cascadeo also lends its expertise in cloud-based products.

“On behalf of the Cascadeo family, we’re glad to be selected MSP of the Year. This is tremendous validation for our customer-client, AIOps-first approach to the Cloud and on-premise managed services. The cascadeo.io platform is our secret sauce and the crown jewel, allowing us to deliver AI-assisted operations to companies large and small,” shared Jared Reimer, Cascadeo President and Co-Founder.

Globe and Cascadeo’s cloud-enabled operations allowed the company to quickly transition to 100 percent remote work despite the pandemic.

Together with Globe, the leading MSP continues to invest in cascadeo.io—an award-winning managed services solution that includes 24/7 expert support, round-the-clock monitoring and incident response ensuring businesses remain online, operational, and scalable.

By leveraging on Amazon Web Services and other artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies, the platform studies a company’s normal operational patterns and detects issues in a customer’s cloud environment to avoid service-impacting incidents.

Globe Business, together with Cascadeo, is looking towards a promising future for Philippine enterprises as the Cloud propels digital transformation, with a 14.96% growth from 2019 to 2020 according to International Data Corporation.

Maquera explained, “Our growth spurred by the Cloud is an experience that we can’t help but share with our customers. We’ve achieved amazing results and we want to replicate the same throughout the country by offering businesses complete flexibility in costs, scalability when it comes to building cloud infrastructure, insights gathered by intelligent solutions, and expertise from dedicated teams.”

Future-proof your business with Globe Cloud Solutions. Contact your Globe Business Account Manager to learn more. You may also visit our website to learn more about Cascadeo and the rest of our cloud services.

WHO recommends two doses of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine within 21–28 days

With jabs in limited supply as production ramps up, the World Health Organization has been examining how they can be used most effectively. Image via Reuters

GENEVA/ZURICH — People should get two doses of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine within 21–28 days, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday, as many countries struggled to administer the jabs that can ward off the COVID-19 virus.

Many are experiencing intensifying pressure on their health services due to surging coronavirus cases and the emergence of new variants that appear to spread more easily.

Governments are introducing new lockdown measures to halt the spread while facing massive demand for vaccines which are seen as the best way out of the global health crisis.

But with jabs in limited supply as production ramps up, the WHO has been examining how they can be used most effectively.

“We deliberated and came out with the following recommendation: two doses of this (Pfizer) vaccine within 21–28 days,” Alejandro Cravioto, chairman of WHO’s Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE), told an online news briefing.

The panel said countries should have leeway to spread out shots over six weeks so that more people at higher risk of illness can get them.

“SAGE made a provision for countries in exceptional circumstances of (Pfizer) vaccine supply constraints to delay the administration of the second dose for a few weeks in order to maximize the number of individuals benefiting from a first dose,” Mr. Cravioto said.

He added: “I think we have to be a bit open to these types of decisions which countries have to make according to their own epidemiological situations.”

More than 85 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and around 1.85 million have died, according to a Reuters tally.

SPACING DOSES
SAGE executive Joachim Hombach said spacing out the two Pfizer inoculations could be acceptable for countries unable to implement the main recommendation. “The JCI, the recommending body of the UK, has given more flexibility up to 12 weeks in consideration of the specific circumstances that the country is currently facing,” he said.

“We … totally acknowledge that countries may see needs to be even more flexible in terms of administration of the second dose. But it is important to note that there is very little … empirical data from the trials that underpin this type of recommendation,” he added.

Given the limited supply of vaccines at present, Mr. Cravioto said SAGE did not recommend the Pfizer jab for international travelers as a priority unless they were in a very high-risk group, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing ailments.

Kate O’Brien, a WHO immunization expert, said there was a robust discussion at SAGE about the trade-off between adhering strictly to standard dosing in clinical trials and allowing for a broader use of vaccine as first doses, thus risking delay in getting the second dose out to some people.

Alluding to delays in rolling out inoculations, she said: “Nobody expected this to be easy and we are starting to see where the road bumps are and where we need to make adjustments.”

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, said he was “very disappointed” that China had not authorized entry of an international mission to examine the origins of the global coronavirus pandemic.

Infections have been reported in more than 210 countries and territories since the first cases were identified in China in December 2019. — Emma Farge and John Revill/Reuters

Why is Bitcoin’s price at an all-time high? And how is its value determined?

Bitcoin continues to trade close to its all-time high reached this month. Its price is now around US$34,000—up about 77% over the past month and 305% over the past year.

First launched in 2009 as a digital currency, Bitcoin was for a while used as digital money on the fringes of the economy.

It has since become mainstream. Today, it’s used almost exclusively as a kind of “digital gold.” That is to say, a scarce digital asset.

In response to the risk of economic collapse due to COVID, governments around the world have flooded global markets with money created by central banks, in order to boost spending and help save the economy.

But increasing the supply of money erodes its value and leads people to look for inflation-resistant assets to hold. In this climate, Bitcoin has become a hedge against looming inflation and poor returns on other types of assets.

WHAT IS BITCOIN?

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has a current circulating supply of 18,590,300 bitcoins and a maximum supply of 21,000,000.

This limit is hard-coded into the Bitcoin protocol and can’t be changed. It creates artificial scarcity, which ensures the digital money increases in value over time.

Whereas government-issued currencies such as the Australian dollar can have their supply increased at will by central banks, Bitcoin has a fixed supply that can’t be inflated by political decisions.

Bitcoin is predominantly traded on online cryptocurrency exchanges, but can also be sent, received and stored in “digital wallets” on specific hardware or smartphone applications.

But perhaps the most groundbreaking aspect of the Bitcoin network is that it draws on the work of cryptographers and computer scientists to exist as a blockchain-based digital currency.

A public blockchain is an “immutable” database, which means the record of transaction history can’t be changed.

A FUNCTIONAL AND DECENTRALIZED DIGITAL CURRENCY

Bitcoin is “decentralized.” In other words, it functions via a dispersed peer-to-peer network, rather than through a central authority such as a central bank.

And it does this through the participation of Bitcoin “miners.” This is anyone who chooses to run software to validate Bitcoin transactions on the blockchain. Typically, these people are actively engaged with cryptocurrency.

They are rewarded with bitcoins, more of which are created every 10 minutes. But the reward paid to miners halves every four years.

This gradual reduction was encoded into the network by creator Satoshi Nakamoto, who designed it this way to mimic the process of extracting actual gold—easier at first, but harder with time.

While several have laid claim to it, the true identity of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto (a psuedonym) has never been confirmed. His last written post on the forum bitcointalk.org was on December 12, 2010. 

Bitocoin miners today earn 6.25 bitcoins for every block mined, down from 50 bitcoins in the early years. This creates an incentive to get involved early, as scarcity increases with time.

Because of this, the price is expected to rise to meet demand. But because future scarcity is known in advance (predictable at four-year intervals), the halving events tend to already be priced in.

Therefore, massive surges and falls in price typically reflect changing demand conditions, such as a growing number of new institutional investors. More and more public companies are now investing in bitcoin.

But what function does Bitcoin provide for society that has people so invested?

WHY DOES BITCOIN MATTER?

There are a few possible explanations as to why Bitcoin is now deemed significant by so many people.

  • It’s a “safe” asset

In the face of global uncertainty, buying bitcoins is a way for people to diversify their assets. Its market value can be compared to that of another go-to asset that shines in times of trouble: gold.

Amid the turmoil of a global pandemic, an unconventional US presidential handover, and geopolitical power shifts the world over, it’s possible more people view gold and Bitcoin as better alternatives to dollars.

  • It ties into privacy-oriented ideologies

Bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) is not politically and ideologically neutral. It was born of the internet era, one plagued with grave concerns for privacy.

Bitcoin’s intellectual and ideological origins are in the “cypherpunk” movement of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Records of online forums show it was advocated for as an anonymous digital currency that allowed people to interact online without being tracked by governments or corporations, offering an alternative for anyone who distrusts the Federal central banking system.

Perhaps the overt rise of digital surveillance in response to the COVID pandemic has further stoked fears about online privacy and security—again piquing the public’s interest in Bitcoin’s potential.

WHY IS BITCOIN BOOMING?

Bitcoin’s recent boom in value comes down to a combination of three factors: ideology, social sentiment, and hope.

But although these are variable factors, this doesn’t discredit the significance of the digital economy, interest in the technology as it matures and the influence of institutional investors in cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is in an upward market trend, also known as “bull market” territory.

It was designed to increase in value over time through the rules Nakamoto wrote into its software code — which Bitcoin’s most outspoken advocates, known as “maximalists,” vehemently defend.

IMAGINING NEW FUTURES

From a larger frame of reference, decentralized cryptocurrencies allow new ways to coordinate without the need for a central arbiter.

And decentralized blockchain-based networks don’t just enable digital money. Similar to ordinary smartphone apps, software developers around the world are building decentralized applications (DApps) on top of Bitcoin and other blockchain protocols.

They have introduced other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, which are also open platforms for the public.

Other DApps include decentralized financial (DeFi) tools for prediction markets, cryptocurrency borrowing and lending, investing, and crowdfunding.

Nakamoto’s audacious experiment in digital currency is working as intended. And what really deserves attention now is what this means for our digital, physical, and social futures. — Jason Potts and Kelsie Nabben/The Conversation

 

Jason Potts is a Professor of Economics at RMIT University in Melbourne, Australia. 

Kelsie Nabben is a Researcher/PhD candidate, RMIT Blockchain Innovation Hub/Digital Ethnography Research Centre, RMIT University.

World Bank sees global output up 4% in 2021, flags downside risks

WASHINGTON — The global economy is expected to expand 4% in 2021 after shrinking 4.3% in 2020, the World Bank said on Tuesday, although it warned that rising COVID-19 infections and delays in vaccine distribution could limit the recovery to just 1.6% this year.

The World Bank’s semi-annual forecast showed the collapse in activity due to the coronavirus pandemic was slightly less severe than previously forecast, but the recovery was also more subdued and still subject to considerable downside risk.

“The near-term outlook remains highly uncertain,” the Bank said in a statement. “A downside scenario in which infections continue to rise and the rollout of a vaccine is delayed could limit the global expansion to 1.6% in 2021.”

With successful pandemic control and a faster vaccination process, global growth could accelerate to nearly 5%, it said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

More than 85 million people have been infected by the novel coronavirus and nearly 1.85 million have died since the first cases were identified in China in December 2019.

The pandemic is expected to have long-lasting adverse effects on the global economy, worsening a slowdown that was already projected before the outbreak began, and the world could face a “decade of growth disappointments” unless comprehensive reforms were put in place, the Bank said.

Shallower contractions in advanced economies and a more robust recovery in China helped avert a bigger collapse in overall global output, but disruptions were more acute in most other emerging market and developing economies, the Bank said.

Aggregate gross domestic product in emerging markets and developing economies—including China—is expected to grow 5% in 2021 after a contraction of 2.6% in 2020.

China’s economy was expected to expand by 7.9% this year after growing by 2% in 2020, the Bank said.

Excluding China, emerging market and developing economies were seen expanding 3.4% in 2021 after shrinking 5% in 2020.

Per capita incomes have dropped in 90% of emerging market and developing economies, tipping millions back into poverty, with reduced investor confidence, increasing unemployment and loss of education time seen dampening prospects for future poverty reduction, the Bank said.

The crisis also triggered a surge in debt levels among emerging market and developing economies, with government debt up by 9 percentage points of GDP—the largest one-year spike since the late 1980s.

“The global community needs to act rapidly and forcefully to make sure the latest wave of debt does not end with debt crises,” the report said, adding that reductions in debt levels would be the only way for some countries to return to solvency.

A resurgence of infections stalled a nascent rebound in advanced economies in the third quarter, with economic output now expected to expand by 3.3% in 2021, instead of 3.9% as initially forecast, the Bank said.

It forecast that US gross domestic product would expand by 3.5% in 2021, after an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2020. The euro area was expected to see output grow 3.6% this year, following a 7.4% decline in 2020, while activity in Japan, which shrank by 5.3% in the year just ended, is forecast to grow by 2.5%. — Andrea Shalal/Reuters

SM Foundation opens scholarship online application for SY 2021-2022

SM Foundation (SMFI) invites incoming college freshmen to apply for the SM College Scholarship program for School Year 2021-2022 via its online application portal from January 1 to February 28, 2021.

The SM scholarship program is open to the following:

  • Grade 12 graduates from public and private schools in the areas covered. For private school graduates, applicants should have the Department of Education (DepEd) voucher and was able to finish Junior High from a public school;
  • General Weighted Average grade of at least 88% or its equivalent for Grade 12 – 1st semester; and
  • Total household income of at most P150,000 per year.

The program covers the following field of studies: Computer Science, Information Technology, Engineering (Civil, Electrical, Mechanical, Computer, and Electronics), Education (Elementary and Secondary); Accountancy, and Financial Management, among others. For more information and to apply, visit www.sm-foundation.org.

Furthermore, the SMFI also invites Pasay City residents to apply for the SM – Pasay Tech-voc Scholarship Program which is open to 17 – 30 year-old residents of Pasay city who have finished at least the 10th Grade (For graduates of the new DepEd curriculum) or High School graduates (For graduates of the old DepEd curriculum), Single, and with a total household income less than PHP150,000 per year.

Interested applicants may get the SM – Pasay Tech Voc Scholarship Program application form and apply through the Pasay City Mayor’s office from January 4 to February 28, 2021.

The SM Scholarship Program started from the vision of the late SM patriarch, Henry “Tatang” Sy, Sr. He believed that if you send one child from an economically challenged family to college, that child would have more opportunities to have gainful employment and later on uplift the economic status of his/her family.

SM Foundation, through its Scholarship program, provides deserving and qualified students with access to college education and technical-vocational studies since 1993. To date, SMFI has supported almost 5,500 scholars nationwide.

 

Inflation picks up as food costs spike

Snacks are sold at the Commonwealth Market in Quezon City, Jan. 5. The country’s headline inflation rose to 3.5% in December on the back of higher prices of food and transport. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

By Luz Wendy T. Noble, Reporter

ANNUAL INFLATION quickened to a 22-month high in December, driven by a surge in food and transport prices during the holiday season, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Tuesday.

Headline inflation stood at 3.5% last December, faster than 3.3% in November and the 2.5% in December 2019.

The rate was higher than the 3.2% median estimate in a BusinessWorld poll last week, and near the high end of the 2.9-3.7% forecast given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Headline inflation rates in the Philippines (December 2021)

This brought the average inflation for 2020 to 2.6%, a tad quicker than 2.5% in 2019 but matches the BSP forecast.

“The main reason for the faster inflation in December is the uptick in the rise of prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages,” National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said at a briefing.

Prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages, which contributed 54% to the month’s overall inflation, quickened to 4.8% in December from 4.3% in November. Food and nonalcoholic beverages account for 38.33% of the theoretical basket of goods that an average Filipino household consumes.

For the month, prices of vegetables and meat rose by 19.7% (from 14.6% in November) and 10% (from 8.2%), respectively.

Rice prices inched up by 0.1%, the first time it posted an increase after 19 months of deflation attributed to the impact of the Rice Tariffication Law (Republic Act No. 11203).

“I cannot tell right now if this is the start of an upward trend [in rice prices]. We will see in the next month or two if it will really go positive,” Mr. Mapa said.

Transport prices, which contributed 19.6% to overall inflation, rose by 8.3% in December from 7.6% in November. Inflation in tricycle and jeepney fares jumped by 47.2% (from 45.9% in November) and 6.6% (from 5.9%), respectively.

Prices of restaurant and miscellaneous goods quickened to 2.5% in December, from 2.2% in November. Faster annual price increases were seen in meals, personal hygiene items such as alcohol and toothpaste, and barbershop services.

On the other hand, the PSA noted a slowdown in the indices of the following commodity groups: alcoholic beverages and tobacco (12.2% from 12.3% in November); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (0.5% from 0.8%); and furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house (3.3% from 3.5%).

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at 3.3% in December, picking up from 3.2% in November and 3.1% a year ago. This brought its 2020 average to 3.2%, the same rate in 2019.

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said the inflation uptick in December was “largely transitory, reflecting the short-term impact of weather disturbances.”

A spate of strong typhoons hit Luzon in late October and early November, causing significant crop damage in parts of Luzon.

“The overall balance of risks to future inflation continues to lean toward the downside owing mainly to the continued uncertainty caused by the pandemic on domestic and global economic activity,” Mr. Diokno told reporters in a Viber message on Tuesday.

The BSP chief, however, noted that the upward pressure on food and oil prices might come from a stronger-than-expected recovery, given recent vaccine developments.

“The BSP continues to expect inflation to settle within the target range over the policy horizon,” Mr. Diokno said.

The faster uptick in food prices is seen as a continuing impact of the typhoons and the African swine fever, Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said.

“This cost-push effect — likely transitory as food prices tend to remain sticky going down — coupled with higher demand during the holiday season nudged overall price growth higher,” he said in a text message.

“The higher demand, on the other hand, underscored improved mobility and consumption, and this is good news for the country’s economic managers banking on the legion of consumers to propel recovery,” he added.

ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said the quicker rise in transport costs was due to “higher fuel prices and expenses related to minimum health standards.”

Mr. Mapa said the central bank is unlikely to go for another rate cut given the current negative real interest rate environment, but he expects the BSP to keep its accommodative monetary policy.

“With the central bank pushing up its 2021 inflation forecast to 3.2%, we do not expect BSP to adjust its main policy rate soon. However, [Mr.] Diokno did hint at a possible reduction to reserve requirements in the near term,” Mr. Mapa said in a note.

To support the economy during the crisis, the central bank slashed rates by a total of 200 basis points in 2020, bringing down the overnight reverse repurchase, lending, and deposit rates to all- time lows of 2%, 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively.

Mr. Diokno said on Tuesday that the BSP will keep rates low “until maybe the next few quarters.”

Meanwhile, inflation for the bottom 30% income households logged in at 4.3% in December, faster than the 3.6% in November and the 1.9% a year earlier.

The consumer price index (CPI) for the bottom 30% modifies the model basket of goods to reflect the spending patterns of the poor. This compared to the headline CPI which measures inflation as experienced by the average household.

Headline inflation rates in the Philippines (December 2020)

ANNUAL INFLATION quickened to a 22-month high in December, driven by a surge in food and transport prices during the holiday season, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Tuesday. Read the full story.

Headline inflation rates in the Philippines (December 2021)

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