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Thailand legalizing opioid-like herb spurs rush of online sales

REUTERS

ENTREPRENEUR Sittichai Komam didn’t waste time once Thailand in late August decriminalized kratom, a coffee-like plant native to Southeast Asia that can give users a mild high. Within hours, Sittichai was on Facebook selling freshly picked kratom leaves, sourced from his neighborhood in southern Thailand, to local consumers.

Popular in the US, where advocates say it’s an opioid alternative but critics say it’s a dangerous drug, kratom is the latest herb the Thai government has legalized for production. Though producers can only sell domestically for now, Thailand has plans to allow exports, potentially enabling local dealers to become suppliers to the US, the world’s most lucrative market.

“A lot of the older villagers kept kratom trees to harvest and eat its leaves,” Sittichai, 31, said. “After it became legal, I started collecting and buying the leaves to help them earn extra income.”

Already, the domestic response has been overwhelming: One week after Sittichai launched, he stopped advertising because Thai orders were coming in faster than villagers could harvest the crop.

Still, Thai consumers have many options on social media platforms like Facebook or e-commerce outlets like Sea Ltd.-backed Shopee, where hundreds of new posts offer stacks of fresh leaves for roughly 100 baht ($3.09) per 100 grams.

Thailand removed kratom from the narcotics list on Aug. 24 and on Sept. 8 lawmakers passed a draft law to allow kratom imports and exports. The moves followed easing of rules against cannabis and hemp.

BEHIND INDONESIA
Thailand lags Indonesia as a producer of the coffee-like shrub, which has leaves that, advocates say, can kill pain, boost energy and treat depression and high blood pressure. Thailand had banned its cultivation, consumption or sale, and people convicted of possessing any part of the plant faced hefty fines and lengthy prison sentences.

Thailand’s local kratom market could be worth 600 million baht by next year, based on assumptions that the sector will be smaller than the hemp industry, according to Chaiwat Sowcharoensuk, an analyst at Krungsri Research. Once Thailand announces rules to regulate trade and large-scale companies join the green rush, though, the export market could be significantly larger, he said.

“Decriminalization will not only benefit farmers but will create a whole new supply chain from upstream to downstream and will likely attract operators looking to turn it into beverages, health supplements and cosmetics,” Chaiwat said.

US MARKET
The biggest potential export market is the US, where online dealers now sell Indonesian-sourced kratom powder and other products to consumers looking for alternatives to opioids. The US market is estimated to be valued at more than $1 billion annually, with 11 million to 15 million users, according to the American Kratom Association, which based its valuation on imports from Indonesia.

“We expect that the legalization of kratom in Thailand will lead to more acceptance of this botanical, and, in turn, reasonable regulations for growing and processing in the countries where kratom is cultivated,” said Jenn Lauder, director of marketing and advocacy at Kraken Kratom, an Oregon-based vendor that sells products from strains local to Indonesia and Thailand.

“This means that companies in the US could have greater control over their supply chains, including seed-to-sale tracking and quality assurance standards that start at the source, and more consistent raw plant materials,” she added.

The timing of liberalization is awkward. The World Health Organization’s Expert Committee on Drug Dependence, which evaluates the potential harm of psychoactive substances, next month will begin what it calls a pre-review of kratom, the first step in a process that could lead to tighter controls.

In the US, the Food and Drug Administration has warned consumers about kratom. “There is substantial concern regarding the safety of kratom, the risk it may pose to public health and its potential for abuse,” Judy McMeekin, the FDA’s Associate Commissioner for Regulatory Affairs, said in a May statement.

Advocates say criticism is unfair. “Kratom may be much more beneficial than harmful to society and if properly regulated can help with certain addictions, help those struggling with acute and chronic pain, and offer those who are trapped in the opioid addiction cycle a safe path away from that,” said Mac Haddow, senior fellow on public policy at the American Kratom Association.

In Thailand, decriminalization is getting good reviews from people like Phatcharaphon Thupaphong, a 47-year-old caddie who chews kratom to get an energy boost while working under the tropical sun.

“Before it became legal, I’d have to hide the leaves under my car seat and they’d shrivel from the heat by the time I got home,” she said. “Now I don’t have to worry.” — Bloomberg

Yields on government debt end flat

YIELDS on government securities (GS) moved sideways last week on faster-than-expected August inflation data and after the government deferred its implementation of targeted lockdowns.

GS yields in the secondary market inched down by 0.54 basis point (bp) on average week on week, based on the PHP Bloomberg Valuation (BVAL) Service Reference Rates as of Sept. 10 as published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

Yields on Treasury bills (T-bill) ended mixed last Friday. The rates of the 91- and 182-day papers fell by 0.26 bp and 0.99 bp to fetch 1.1453% and 1.4088%, respectively. On the other hand, the yield on the 364-day T-bill inched up by 0.72 bp to 1.6394%.

Meanwhile, the belly of the curve edged lower as yields on the two-, three-, four-, five-, and seven-year Treasury bonds (T-bonds) fell by 2.14 bps (to 1.9527%), 2.16 bps (2.2656%), 2.43 bps (2.5816%), 2.54 bps (2.9233%) and 1.25 bps (3.581%), respectively.

Rates on the high end of the curve inched higher. The 10-year debt saw its yield rise by 0.47 bp to 4.1354%, while the 20-year paper climbed 1.96 bps to 4.9889%. The 25-year T-bond also added 2.68 bps to yield 4.9868%.

Security Bank Corp. Chief Investment Officer for Trust and Asset Management Group Noel S. Reyes said last week’s average yield movement was “small” as changes in rates were minimal due to data showing faster-than-expected inflation in August and as the government delayed its plan to implement granular lockdowns instead of region-wide quarantine measures to gradually reopen the economy.

A bond trader said last week’s yields ended firmer than the previous week even as the August inflation print was at higher end of the expected range.

“Market seemed to focus more on BSP’s (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) post CPI (consumer price index) statements, where they mentioned that the policy stance will remain as long as economy remains fragile,” the bond trader said in a Viber message.

Rising food and utilities prices pushed August inflation to 4.9%, the fastest pace seen in more than two years. This was higher than the BusinessWorld median estimate of 4.4% and was at the upper end of the central bank’s 4.1-4.9% estimate for the month.

Inflation averaged at 4.4% in the first eight months, beyond the BSP’s 2-4% target band and 4.1% forecast for this year.

The central bank last week said it will maintain its accommodative monetary stance “for as long as necessary” to support the economy as long as inflation stays within expectations.

Meanwhile, government officials on Sept. 7 said National Capital Region (NCR) will remain under modified enhanced community quarantine until Sept. 15, backtracking from an earlier decision to put NCR under general community quarantine to be accompanied by an alert level system.

For this week, the bond trader sees local yields moving sideways with a downward bias, especially for tenors of seven years and below, “while market will likely be cautious ahead of the 10-year auction.”

The Bureau of the Treasury will offer P35 billion in reissued 10-year papers with remaining life of nine years and 10 months on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Mr. Reyes said yields will be range-bound this week as liquidity and movement could remain the same due to the lack of catalysts. — A.O.A. Tirona

Style (09/13/21)

Rustan’s holds lingerie sale

FOR the whole month of September, Rustan’s offers up to 20% off on selected items from Hanes, Maidenform, Luna, Permanent Weekend, Spanx, Triumph, and Wacoal. Luna offers sleepwear choices that provide comfort for lounging or sleeping, with vibrant designs that help level up one’s style. For something more plain but still comfy, Permanent Weekend has a wide range of choices. There are the Pointelle Knit Scoop Tank and Tap Pants for a chill weekend, while the slip dress can elevate one’s mood. Maidenform shapewear offers a luxurious and superior fit. Triumph Fit Smart and Zero Feel selections are must-haves for pro-active individuals. Meanwhile, the Spanx Bra-llelujah offers added support without compromising comfort. For craftsmanship and superior fit, check out the sets at Wacoal, with styles in new hues sold in packs or by pair. To shop at Rustan’s, one may opt to use the personal shopper service by calling the Personal Shopper On-Call hotline, 0917-111-1952, from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. Fulfilled orders can be collected via curbside pick-up or items can be delivered for free, for a minimum purchase requirement of P5,000.

New fragrances from Avon

IN CELEBRATION of its 43rd anniversary in the Philippines, Avon is unveiling the newest addition to Imari — its original line of sensual fragrances — with Imari Rouge, “its most daring fragrance to date,” according to a company release. “Each spray is designed to elevate one’s sensuality and pushes you to go after what you want with an unquestionable attitude and drive.” This Chypre-Oriental fragrance greets with top notes made from rich mandarin, dainty pink peppercorn, and upcycled apple oil. The scent later reveals a soulful mix of rose, iris, and peach accord. Finally, the base notes are made from Indonesian patchouli, benzoin, and warm notes of vanilla. Check out the whole Imari collection and more at avonshop.ph.

Rustan’s Beauty Addict sale is on

RUSTAN’S annual Beauty Addict event is a bit more restrained this year, and has a different trajectory, considering the times. In line with the theme “Transcend,” Rustan’s The Beauty Source is placing a focus on “Looking Good, Thinking Good, Feeling Good, and Doing Good.” What was once a month of scoring beauty deals is now a series of talks throughout the month (the beauty deals are still there). The next talk will be on Sept. 15, with Tatler Homes editor-in-chief Stephanie Zubiri preparing a healthy recipe and beauty tips (from inside out), via her Instagram account (@stephanizezubiri) to promote Rustan’s Feel & Do Good campaign. As for the scoring deals on beauty products, exclusive offers await Beauty Addict members for the rest of the month (and beyond). From Sept. 1 to Nov. 30, get a Viajecito Splashkit Sport Set for a minimum purchase of P20,000, and enjoy up to five times more points on all purchases in all Rustan’s Stores and through the Personal Shopper on Call program from Sept. 11-30. Be a member (and thus, an official Beauty Addict), for any purchase — no minimum amount — and get +50 points when you download the Beauty Addict mobile app. Meanwhile, The Beauty Addict Raffle promo will run from Sept. 3 to Oct. 31. For every purchase of P2,500, the customer is entitled to one electronic raffle entry for a chance to win either Rustan’s Sporty Street Clothing vouchers worth P15,000 from The North Face, Columbia, and Champion and a Rustan’s The Beauty Source Gift Box.; Rustan’s Casual Chic Clothing; Miyuki Side Tie Overlap Dress from Lady Rustan and a limited-edition Twilly d’Hermès Gift Set, or the grand prize: a Rustan’s The Beauty Source shopping spree worth P50,000. Join Rustan’s Viber Community and get the latest updates on beauty essentials, events, special offers and more (bit.ly/RTBSonViber).

Bally appoints Johnny Huang as Chinese Brand Ambassador

BALLY has officially appointed Chinese actor Johnny Huang as its new Brand Ambassador. “Huang’s role will reinterpret the Swiss luxury brand’s pioneering spirit and reverence for art, and nature, while espousing his confidence and strong personal style with understated elegance and edge,” the brand said in a release. Bally, which entered the Chinese market in 1986,  says the actor “will engage China’s younger generation, captured through his large following of 20 million on Weibo, building upon Bally’s robust retail network and digital ecosystem, with a presence in the Chinese mainland of 60 stores and e-commerce through its Bally.cn and WeChat Mini-Program as well as Tmall and JD.” Mr. Huang will be the face of Bally’s Autumn/Winter 2021 and Spring/Summer 2022 seasonal campaigns, and join regional festivity campaigns such as Chinese Valentine’s Day. The Autumn/Winter 2021 campaign is presented together with Mr. Huang alongside supermodel Zhao Jiali, and introduces Bally’s Legacy Continua collection.

Investors to monitor lockdown implementation

BW FILE PHOTO

STOCKS may move sideways this week as investors monitor the government’s implementation of targeted lockdowns, which are meant to curb rising coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections while boosting economic activity.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) climbed 46.49 points or 0.67% to close at 6,970.51 on Friday, while the all shares index went up by 22 points or 0.51% to 4,302.79.

Week on week, the benchmark index gained 73.38 points from its 6,897.13 finish on Sept. 3.

“The market started the week on a good note as investors cheered over the positive jobless report for the month of July, shrugging off worries over the acceleration seen in our inflation rate for the month of August,” Timson Securities, Inc. Trader Darren Blaine T. Pangan said in a Viber message on Saturday.

Preliminary results of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) monthly Labor Force Survey released on Wednesday showed the number of unemployed Filipinos decreased to 3.073 million or 6.9% in July from the previous month’s 3.764 million or 7.7% jobless Filipinos. This is also less than the 4.569 million or 10% jobless Filipinos recorded in July last year.

Meanwhile, inflation rose 4.9% in August from the 4% in July, the PSA reported on Tuesday.

“The PSEi also gained after [the] IATF-EID (Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases) provisionally approved the guidelines on the pilot implementation of Alert Level System on COVID-19 response in the transition towards more localized or granular lockdown in [the] NCR (National Capital Region) initially with target implementation on September 16,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in an e-mail on Friday.

Metro Manila is under modified enhanced community quarantine until Sept. 15. After this, it will transition to granular lockdowns, which will be implemented until the end of the month. These targeted lockdowns are meant to curb infections without sacrificing economic activity.

“Potential catalysts that may affect the market’s performance [this] week include how the government goes about with the implementation of the granular lockdowns in the capital region,” Timson Securities’ Mr. Pangan said. “7,000 seems to be the nearest resistance area, with 6,780 being the closest support area.”

“Investors may also be staying tuned to how RCR (RL Commercial REIT, Inc.) will perform upon listing date,” Mr. Pangan added.

RCR is the real estate investment trust (REIT) unit sponsored by Robinsons Land Corp., which is set to list at the stock exchange on Tuesday, Sept. 14. It is offering 3,342,864,000 common shares for P6.45 apiece, with an overallotment option of up to 305,103,000 shares.

RCR is expected to raise up to P23.53 billion in proceeds. Upon listing, it will be the third REIT to make its debut this year and RCR will be the fourth REIT listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange. — K.C.G. Valmonte

Which regions received the most investment commitments in the first half?

Which regions received the most investment commitments in the first half?

How PSEi member stocks performed — September 10, 2021

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, September 10, 2021.


Should we worry about fish price inflation?

Yes, I would say as consumers, we should worry about fish price inflation. Not only us consumers, but the Duterte administration as well, because fish prices, together with pork prices, have been among the biggest components driving consumer price inflation, which has surged to 4.9% last August.

Food price inflation also has political ramifications and with the two sources of protein for Filipinos (pork and fish) seeing above average price increases and elections just months away, the Duterte administration may have something to worry about.

Consider: average fish price inflation during the Duterte administration (2017 to 2020) is 7.5% per annum (pa) compared to an average of 3.2% pa during the Aquino administration (2012 to 2016). Compare that to rice, where average inflation during the Aquino administration was 3.1% pa, but only 0.3% pa from 2017 to 2020. Clearly, the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL) has worked. It’s probably one reason contributing to the high popularity ratings of the President.

I would like to state outright that I’m drawing heavily on an excellent study by Dr. Karlo Fermin Adriano, on “Proposed Policy Reform for the Fishery Sector: Promoting Greater Efficiency and Stability.”

I also had an opportunity to interview him. There are very few economists studying the fisheries sector and I’m glad that Dr. Adriano has chosen fisheries as a field of study. We are an archipelagic country, and we should have a “blue” or marine economy, but the fisheries sector gets scant attention.

Well, there’s bad news for the fisheries sector. Fish output is declining and will probably decline more in the future. According to Dr. Adriano, catch per unit of effort (CPUE), is declining for pelagic and demersal fish in the Philippines. This is true, whether for hook and line or for commercial fisheries.

The reason is clear: the sea commons is overfished. Too much fish being caught doesn’t allow for the regeneration of the fish population.

With increasing population and decreasing supply of fish, the country faces severe annual shortages of fish. Galunggong, the poor man’s fish, is short by 400,000 metric tons (MT) per year. Tilapia by 200,000 MT and bangus (milkfish) by 228,000 MT.

According to Dr. Adriano, the per capita demand for fish outstrips the per capita supply for all fish commodities (except tuna). The only reason fish prices didn’t increase as much, given the supply shortfall, is that importation of fish for the wet market was allowed in 2018 under Fisheries Administrative Order (FAO) 259. The increased supply in 2018-2019 helped mitigate fish price inflation.

So, what’s the problem? The problem, as always, is government. The government, through QRs or Quantitative Restrictions, regulates the importation of fish. The government is incompetent (vis-à-vis the market) in determining the exact number of fish to be imported, the timing of the importation, and who gets the permits to import.

Moreover, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) added several non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to FAO 195 importers, which are the processors, canners, and institutional buyers.

One consequence is that while there was moderation in the price of raw fish — the growth rate in the retail price of raw fish fell from 12.8% in 2017-2018 to 4.4% in 2018-2019 — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of fish and seafood commodities increased from 5.5% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2019.

The contradiction is explained by the fact that the inefficient system of importation and the non-tariff barriers imposed by the BFAR hit the fish processors and canners hard. For example, there wasn’t enough imported mackerel for fish processors and canners in 2019, leading to idle factories and higher processed fish prices. The mackerel being used by several fish processors isn’t endemic to the Philippines but because of NTBs imposed to FAO 195, its importation was regulated anyway.

With QRs, there’s also a great danger of the bureaucracy colluding with the cartels (given the list of FAO 259 importers is relatively small) to keep prices high. For example, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) believes that the shortage for the last quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 will be around 200,000 MT of fish. However, the BFAR is going to allow the importation of only 60,000 MT during the coming Christmas season, when demand is high. This will hurt consumers and benefit only a select group of traders.

Obviously, this system when the government acts as the God of the market is inefficient, impractical, and prone to manipulation.

Government should instead learn from the positive lessons of the RTL (Rice Tariffication Law). RTL removed the corrupt administration of rice importation from the National Food Authority, allowed free importation by the private sector but generated revenue through tariffication. The result? Rice inflation is no longer a factor in the CPI. Rice prices are more stable, benefitting 110 million consumers. Contrary to the scary scenarios portrayed by the RTL opponents, Filipino rice farmers didn’t go bankrupt but instead increased their efficiency and productivity.

Similarly, government should abolish all quantitative restrictions on the im     portation of fish and allow the market to determine equilibrium. Consumers, and not traders or bureaucrats, will benefit. Free trade will give us fish security. In fact, the policy on free trade should apply not only to fish but also to all agricultural commodities.

In the medium-term, Dr. Adriano believes that given the declining catch from overfished waters, both locally and internationally, aquaculture is the way to go. However, aquaculture comes with its own set of issues, such as environmental pollution, sourcing of fish fry, land use, etc. and therefore, the government must develop and execute a plan, together with the LGUs (Local Government Units) that will lead to the growth of aquaculture and our fish security without the negativities associated with it.

Moreover, the government must put the proper infrastructure in place, such as fish ports and cold chain facilities, if aquaculture is to grow and become a bigger source of domestic fish supply.

With many Filipinos going hungry from massive unemployment and underemployment due to the pandemic, rising food prices will hit poor Filipinos doubly hard. This is because low-income households are spending a higher share of their total income for food compared to the middle- and upper- income classes. Not only would diminished incomes lead to less food on the table, but higher food prices will force the poor to cut back even more.

The Duterte administration should indeed worry about fish price inflation. No amount of trolling can erase the grumbling of voters’ empty stomachs.

 

Calixto V. Chikiamco is a member of the board of the Institute for Development and Econometric Analysis (IDEA).

totivchiki@yahoo.com

Dynasties

FREEPIK

When people talk about Philippine politics, the issue of political dynasties is — and will always be — at the forefront of discussions. Now that we are approaching an election year, the seemingly accepted “truth” that dynasties are bad for us becomes all the more salient, in the media, and among voters as well.

Is there any truth to this claim? Are dynasties really bad for the Philippines economic and political development? Given such a controversial issue, a more sober (and scientific) approach to answering this question is needed. While our personal experience and perception in the Philippines may seem to suggest that this is true, a careful look at the data, however, does not necessarily support the idea that dynasties are always and everywhere bad for our country’s progress.

In a recently published study (Dulay D, Go L., “When Running for Office Runs in the Family: Horizontal Dynasties, Policy, and Development in the Philippines. Comparative Political Studies.” September 2021), my co-author Dean Dulay and I investigate the question of whether dynasties are good or bad for development. As Filipino academics, we wanted to contribute to popular discussions on political dynasties by adding empirical evidence that provides a more level-headed and rigorous take at such a contentious (and often times emotional) issue.

What did we find? Using local elections data from 1988-2016, we find that mayors coming from horizontal dynasties (i.e., two or more politicians coming from the same family occupying political office at the same time) spend 4-5% more for their constituents than non-dynasties. We provide further evidence that this is driven by dynasties’ ability to better coordinate among relatives, remove institutional constraints, and thus lead to higher spending. According to a mayor we interviewed, if the vice-mayor is a political ally, then the vice-mayor could “fast track the projects or proposal of the local chief executive, (and)… serve a bridge between the mayor and the councilors.”

These results alone seem to suggest that dynasties, in contrast to prevailing perceptions, might actually be good for their constituents. However, looking at development indicators (i.e., poverty rates and growth), we see that horizontally dynastic mayors do not lead to more (or less) development than their non-dynastic counterparts. Combining this with the previous result implies that while dynasties can encourage higher spending, they might not be as efficient in their spending as it does not lead to better development outcomes. In other words, dynasties spend more money, but that increase in spending does not lower poverty rates and does not increase city and municipal growth rates.

There are caveats to this result, however. First, the increase in spending might not be immediately reflected in short-term poverty or growth measures. Second, there might be other indicators that can better reflect the developmental impacts of greater spending. Given these, we show that horizontal dynasties clearly result in higher spending, but the development potential from higher spending does not seem to follow. This suggests the existence of waste or corruption on the one hand, but it can also be due to the stated caveats on the other.

The takeaway from our paper is that dynasties are not inherently good or bad. Horizontal dynasties, as we have shown, can bypass political gridlock, allowing them to implement good policies, which in principle is a good thing. However, in the absence of accountability mechanisms, policies might not necessarily lead to better outcomes. For example, making sure voters know about the details of municipal spending may aid in keeping horizontal dynasties accountable, which will make them use their spending in more productive ways.

Why do we find divergent results from existing knowledge and studies in the Philippines? The main difference is in our ability to tease out correlation from causation. Previous work in the Philippines has shown a strong correlation between dynastic leadership and poverty — i.e., areas led by dynastic politicians tend to be poorer. This sort of correlational analysis does not account for many possibilities: 1.) poverty may lead to dynastic formation, 2.) dynasties contribute to poverty, or, 3.) a common cause, such as low growth, results in both poverty and dynastic formation. Using a more rigorous approach we are able to offer causal evidence showing that dynasties do not lead to more poverty and provide supporting proof to back up our claim. A key contribution of our work is that apart from showing what effects dynasties have on development, we also explain how dynasties operate in political environments such as those in Philippine local government.

When talking about politics — especially political dynasties — it is always important to take a sober and levelheaded approach. Political dynasties are complex institutions that cannot simply be evaluated based on binary judgments of good versus bad. Truly understanding the causes and consequences of political dynasties requires systematic and credible evidence, even if it may be unpopular or runs counter to our pre-conceived notions.

 

Laurence Go (@golaurencego) is a fellow of Action for Economic Reforms, and leads its data lab. He finished his economics PhD at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.

The future of retail and how to compete

FREEPIK

The Philippine Retailers Association (PRA) successfully held its online retail conference last month. The event was staged not via Zoom, as is common nowadays, but through a platform called EchoHub. It gave attendees the choice to listen to speakers or participate in break-out discussion groups, simultaneously. A virtual exposition hall was also accessible where a number of retailers showed off their latest offerings. Multi-dimensional virtual conferences like this are the future and we congratulate the PRA for being on the cutting edge.

Save for the young hosts whose tonality was inappropriate for a such a high-level event (their tone was more appropriate for a television game show), PRA’s event, entitled “Retail Reboot,” was a success in terms of the quality of speakers, content, and number of attendees.

Among the speakers whose message truly resonated was Doug Stephens. Doug is a Canadian retail futurist, author, and consultant to such companies as Google, BMW, Target, and eBay (I highly recommend a visit to his website, www.retailprophet.com). Doug painted a clear picture of how retail will evolve in the not-too-distant future.

Doug says that it is not true that COVID-19 accelerated the future of retail — it has, in fact, changed it completely. According to the European Journal of Social Psychology, it takes 66 days for behaviors to become a habit. COVID and its many life-changing outcomes have been with us for 18 months. Thus, it is safe to say that the habits we have developed through this debacle are now ingrained in us and have become our default behavior.

Working from home is here to stay. Mega-cities (or economic hubs) will become less relevant as people work remotely. People will leave cities and move to the countryside where they can enjoy a better quality of life for less cost. Thus, concentration of wealth will be re-distributed. Another habit that now persists is buying and consuming goods from home. This has pushed e-commerce to the mainstream. Any retailer who wishes to compete locally or globally must have a digital store.

E-commerce is now a $22-trillion industry. In China, sales via e-commerce are already 150% more than the sales of brick-and-mortar stores. The trajectory of e-commerce is quantumly upwards.

But there is a problem, Doug contends. In our midst are e-commerce giants, otherwise known as “Apex Sellers.” They are the Amazons, eBays, Alibabas, Shopees, and Lazadas of this world. Due to their expansive reach and well-organized logistics network, Apex Sellers are able to dominate an increasing number of retail categories. They are already in fashion, food, wellness, groceries, hardware, electronics, and many more. Apex Sellers will continue to expand their offerings to touch every aspect of our lives. In fact, they have already begun to offer such products as insurance policies, airline tickets, healthcare services, real estate, cars, and even banking services. The idea is that consumers “live” in one electronic marketplace controlled by an Apex Seller.

Apex Sellers are a threat to brick-and-mortar retailers making the transition to e-commerce. Why? Because Apex Sellers have commoditized nearly every product on the planet, from tennis shoes, to computers, to custom-made furniture from Italy. And because of their enormous scale, they are able to sell these products at razor-thin margins which even the manufacturers themselves cannot match.

So how can up-and-coming merchants carve their niche under the e-commerce sun?

It is all about differentiation, Doug proclaims. What makes a retailer stand out is its reason for being (its purpose).

A superb example is Nike. If Nike were to compete with an Apex Seller on the basis of design, quality, or price of its sportswear, it will always be out-designed, out-performed, and out-priced by hundreds of brands made in sweat shops around the world. To compete as a commodity is a race to the bottom.

Luckily, the folks at Nike are masters in consumer behavior and have recognized that what they are selling is not sportswear but stories. The stories that Nike tells, through its different media platforms, tells what their purpose is.

Nike tells the story of success by perseverance, struggle, and redemption and winning against the odds. Nike’s purpose is to inspire.

A well-defined purpose has the power to differentiate a brand from the rest of the pack and, in the process, attract customers and achieve brand loyalty.

Other examples of brands with strong purposes are The North Face and Patagonia, both of whose purpose is to be activists for environmental protection. The purpose of French premium brand Hermés is to be the world’s tastemaker and the pinnacle of quality and prestige. Appliance maker Dyson’s purpose is to be the cutting edge of engineering and design. The list goes on.

Brands that succeed in e-commerce are those whose purposes are well defined and those that evoke strong emotions. Without this, a brand is simply considered a commodity.

Defining a brand’s purpose requires the deliberate curation of its media outlets. This includes its advertisements, above and below the line, as well as its presence in social media channels. The story that the brand tells must be consistent throughout all forms of media.

One advantage that brick-and-mortar brands have over Apex Sellers is their physical stores themselves. Yes, physical stores will remain relevant even as e-commerce dominates most purchases.

A “retail experience” is the most effective way to convey as message and physical stores allows customers to experience a brand’s purpose first hand. Physical stores serve as the brand’s “stage” where it can create experiences whilst also generating the content needed for social media accounts. They are a venue for livestream events — something becoming increasingly important as a marketing tool. They also provide a source for immediate customer feedback.

In summary, there is no denying that COVID has permanently changed consumer behavior around the world. It has pushed e-commerce to the mainstream where up-and-coming e-commerce merchants must compete with Apex Sellers. The way to compete with Apex Sellers is to have a strong brand purpose.

E-commerce should not be seen as threat to brick-and-mortar retailers. Rather, it must be viewed as a great equalizer that presents opportunities for quantum growth, if done correctly. It is a new paradigm where those who are focused and those who persevere wins.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

andrew_rs6@yahoo.com

Facebook@AndrewJ. Masigan

Twitter @aj_masigan

The pump and dump scheme

JCOMP-FREEPIK

“Of all the drugs under God’s blue heaven, there is one that is my absolute favorite — Money. Enough of this sh-t will make you invincible — able to conquer the world and eviscerate your enemies,” securities trader Jordan Belfort says in Martin Scorsese’s award-winning biopic, The Wolf of Wall Street. The 2013 movie set a new Guinness World Records record title for the most swearing in one film, with the f-word expletive used 506 times — an average of 2.81 times per minute (https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com).

Scorsese must have taken a lot of liberties to characterize the infamous Jordan Belfort (famously portrayed by Leonardo DiCaprio, who won the Golden Globe Best Actor for this) as crude, obsessed, and grossly depraved. But Belfort had given unequivocal consent for his portrayal, as the movie was based on his own 2007 memoir of the same title, where he related his career as a stockbroker in New York City and how he ran his 1980s Over-the-Counter (OTC) stock brokerage firm, Stratton Oakmont, to defraud small investors in penny stocks with his signature “pump and dump” scheme.

“Rule Number One,” Belfort says in the film, “F-ck what they think.”

The three-hour “epic” of Belfort’s how’s and why’s in his life and career opens with a troubling scene. It is a rowdy office party; half-crazed merrymakers take turns trying to catapult a live-and-kicking little clown onto a sticky bulls-eye wall set up with a huge dollar sign. Jordan Belfort, the big boss and owner of Stratton Oakmont, is rousing his securities traders: “The only thing standing between you and your goal is the bullshit story you keep telling yourself as to why you can’t achieve it.” And the seemingly hypnotized cult group chanted, “Money, money!”

That was Belfort’s trademark: he was (and still is) a motivational speaker, generically a salesman. He knew only too well how to convince people to buy into his ideas and use his products. His initial target market were his employees, who absorbed his style and philosophy in the criminal deviousness of the “pump and dump” investment schemes and inflated IPOs (Initial Public Offering in the equities market). At its peak, the firm is said to have employed about 1,000 stockbrokers overseeing investments of more than $1 billion. Small investors were pretty much like the little clown hurled like a dart at the bulls-eye at their office party.

Pump-and-dump is a manipulative scheme that attempts to boost (pump) the price of a stock or security through fake recommendations. These recommendations are based on false, misleading, or greatly exaggerated statements. The perpetrators (brokers, traders) already have an established position in the company’s stock and will sell (dump) their positions after the hype has led to a higher share price (https://www.investopedia.com). This was traditionally conducted through “cold calling,” which we see in the movie as the frenzied traders rushing to the telephone to call their quota of potential investor-clients after Belfort’s hype and hoopla about the targeted inflated security. Belfort drafted the spiel for his traders to read to clients. The usual come-on is “inside info” about an imminent development that will surely lead to a dramatic rise in the share’s price. Convinced buyers pump the stock even higher by the increased demand. The pump and dump scheme operated by Stratton Oakmont resulted in investor losses of roughly $200 million (https://www.beatingtheindex.com).

A Telegraph article cited by the same site said that Belfort was making close to $1 million a week and that he once earned over $12.5 million in three minutes. Another article in the Independent states that he was earning an estimated £600,000 a week, which is around $937,500 using 2014 exchange rates when the article was published (Ibid.). Of course, those amounts were not yet net of Belfort’s profligate spending on expensive drugs, society prostitutes, and his lavish lifestyle of parties and orgies in his mansions, jets, and yachts. He sniffed cocaine through a rolled-up $100 bill and threw thousands of dollars in the air in his stupor.

Stratton Oakmont was hounded by the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) until the firm was shut down in 1996. In 1999, Belfort and his associate Danny Porush were indicted for money laundering and securities fraud. After a plea bargain where Belfort ratted on his partners in crime including Danny, he was sentenced to four years and ultimately served 22 months in prison. Following his release from prison, and as part of his restitution agreement, Belfort was required to pay 50% of his income to his defrauded clients through 2009. Federal prosecutors filed a complaint in 2013, alleging that Belfort reneged on his obligations to his victims until he reached again a separate deal with federal authorities to complete the restitution payments.

Since his release from prison Belfort has re-engineered himself as, guess what — a professional motivational speaker. His speaking engagements are run through his business, Global Motivation, Inc. Perhaps Belfort has since replaced his imagery of that little clown tossed like a dart towards the bulls-eye just like the exploited victims of his glib tongue and what he espoused. Taking advantage of others by fake news or manipulated slants was criminal then, as it is now. The intricate deceit in money laundering hurts the common good, like stealing and cheating.

Yet the pump and dump scheme has thrived, with extensive online trading and transactions of almost any and all financial products, with traders, brokers, or whoever wishing to sell to even randomly selected potentially impressionable “investors.” Belfort has lost his audience to the internet. In January 2018, JT Hamrick et al. published The Economics of Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Schemes, an expose on the scams on the manipulated and faked trading values of Bitcoin and 2,000 other cryptocurrencies, still unregulated by governments.

Scams by opportunists can thrive in recessions because of the frantic efforts of most investors to recover thinning or lost spreads in trading, downtrends in interest income, bond yields, even negative savings rates eaten up by inflation. Currency exchanges are volatile, as the whole world is in differing unstable economic conditions — all in some level of recession. In the twin calamity of the COVID-19 pandemic and world recession, many businesses closed and bankruptcies were declared. Enter the fabricators of fake or magnified “good news” to offer solutions to desperate investors.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission offers advice on pumped-up investment opportunities, which are relevant and applicable to democratic economies (https://www.sec.gov):

1. Consider the Source. When you see an offer on the internet, assume it is a scam, until you can prove through your own research that it is legitimate.

2. Find Out Where the Stock Trades. OTC transactions which are generally among the riskiest and most susceptible to manipulation.

3. Independently Verify Claims. Before you invest, make sure you’ve independently verified grandiose claims.

4. Research the Opportunity. Always ask for — and carefully read — the prospectus or current financial statements.

5. Watch Out for High-Pressure Pitches. Don’t fall for the line that you’ll lose out on a “once-in-a-lifetime” chance to make big money if you don’t act quickly.

6. Always Be Skeptical. Whenever someone you don’t know offers you a hot stock tip, ask yourself: Why me? Why is this stranger giving me this tip? How might he or she benefit if I trade?

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is… not true.

 

Amelia H. C. Ylagan is a Doctor of Business Administration from the University of the Philippines.

ahcylagan@yahoo.com

Remittance prospects seen positive despite Delta variant

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

By Luz Wendy T. Noble, Reporter

THE REMITTANCE industry’s outlook is positive as vaccination programs gain traction in major economies that are key worker destinations, despite the threat of the coronavirus Delta variant, a remittance industry executive said.

“Because of the vaccine, my view is that it lessens the danger of us as a whole going back to those early stages of the pandemic wherein everybody is closed. I don’t think that will happen. Although there are variants, we will not be in the position (we were in) in March 2020,” UniTeller Philippines President Noel C. Cristal said in an online interview.

Cash remittances increased 7% year on year to $2.638 billion in June, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Inflows in the first half of the year rose 6.4% to $14.918 billion.

Cash remittances slipped 0.8% to $29.903 billion in 2020. The 2019 total of $30.133 billion had been a record.

Inflows from the US, the biggest remittance source, have been boosted by Washington’s massive stimulus support programs, Mr. Cristal said.

“The government extended support programs, and of course, Filipinos are always for family. When they get some money, their priority is really to send support to their families back home,” he said, noting that the US is Uniteller’s main market.

Remittances fuel household spending, which makes up about 70% of the Philippine economy.

The BSP estimates that inflows from the US increased 7.5% to $5.982 billion in the first half.

Singapore has displaced Saudi Arabia as the second biggest remittance source for the Philippines. In the first six months inflows from Singapore hit $1.035 billion, compared to the $832.614 million from Saudi Arabia.

This development reflects the extra weight of Filipino workers’ earnings in Singapore, Mr. Cristal said, noting that Filipinos in Singapore include a large contingent of professionals, while those in Saudi Arabia are mainly in construction and services, which took a hit from the pandemic.

“Also, Singapore has controlled the pandemic more favorably than others,” he said.

But Mr. Cristal is bullish that inflows from Saudi Arabia will gradually recover. Remittances from that country rose 1.6% from the first six months of 2020.

The BSP expects remittances to rebound this year, posting growth of 4%.

Group charter scheme eyed for East Asian tourists

STOCK PHOTO

THE DEPARTMENT of Tourism has identified South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan as potential partner countries for specialized tour groups once international travel resumes.

“(We’re) looking at possibilities for maybe specialized charters that will bring various tour groups straight into destinations that are already prepared to welcome the tourists eventually,” Tourism Assistant Secretary Verna C. Buensuceso said in a webinar last week.

While leisure international travel is at a standstill amid a surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, Ms. Buensuceso said the department is preparing plans for fully vaccinated travelers and coming up with health protocols for the tour groups.

“Right now, there is actually a special working group in the interagency taskforce that is looking into particular green lanes that we can open up for vaccinated travelers in the future,” she said.

“We’re looking especially for those that deal with tourism stakeholders, possibly coming up with green lanes for tourism groups that will go straight from certain markets into specific destinations of the country.”

These plans and the health protocols will need approval from the interagency taskforce on the coronavirus when the time comes, she said at an event organized by the British Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines and Santos Knight Frank.

The Tourism department has so far developed 44 tourism circuits, or clusters of tourism attractions. Another 71 are in the pipeline.

International tourism revenue in 2020 plummeted 83% to P81.4 billion after the number of visitors fell. — Jenina P. Ibañez