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Movie Review
Historya ni Ha
Directed by Lav Diaz

Lav Diaz’s Historya ni Ha (History of Ha) may be his strangest work yet. If in Ang Hupa (The Halt, 2019) he proposes a Filipino dystopia complete with dictatorship and pandemic and volcano-induced darkness, and in Panahon ng Halimaw (Season of the Devil, 2018) he presents the Philippines’ first-ever black-and-white, sung-through, no-instrument musical, this you might say is his Dead of Night – an astringently deadpan blackly comic film about a ventriloquist and his dummy.  

Hernando Alamada (John Lloyd Cruz) is a former Huk insurgent turned famed bodabil star, performing for passengers on the Mayflower as it sails international waters. It’s his last tour; he plans to take his savings to his hometown and marry his childhood sweetheart Rosetta – only it’s not to be: Rosetta has promised herself to a rich man, to pay off family debts. Hernando goes into self-exile instead, and the story proper begins. 

We’ve seen this figure before in Diaz’s films, from his earliest (Burger Boys, 1999 – first to production, second released) to Kriminal ng Baryo Concepcion (Criminal of Barrio Concepcion, 1998) to Batang West Side (West Side Avenue, 2001) to Ebolusyon ng Isang Pamilyang Pilipino (Evolution of a Filipino Family, 2004) to as late as Panahon ng Halimaw – the loner wanderer, sometimes the film’s ideological torchbearer, sometimes its heart of darkness.  

One wonders if this figure actually exists in Diaz’s life, though one would be hard pressed to guess who – his father? Diaz himself? In Burger Boys he’s a haunting haunted figure in one boy’s life, the father he wished he could have loved but never quite knew, represented by a wood angel statue his father once carved but was unable to finish – the statue stands by a roadside, its arms ending in stumps. In Ebolusyon ng Isang Pamilyang Pilipino he’s Raynaldo (Elryan de Vera), a boy who wanders from town to town, family to family, fate uncertain, belonging to none, less protagonist than mute witness to the random currents of history. In Batang West Side he’s two figures: young Hanzel Harana (Yul Servo), who moves from the care of mother to grandfather to the tutelage/patronage of a malevolent (if irrepressibly funny) drug lord, eventually walking the Jersey streets straight into a bullet; he’s also Detective Juan Mijares of the NJPD (Joel Torre), an insomniac introvert of a police officer who grapples with the unpromising investigation of Hanzel’s death and his own personal demons.  

The eponymous hero (Mark Anthony Fernandez) of Hesus Rebolusyonaryo (Jesus Revolutionary), Hugo Haniway (Piolo Pascual) of Panahon ng Halimaw, and Hook Trollo (Pascual again) of Ang Hupa are slightly different: former revolutionaries and artists forced by circumstance to retire or go into hiding, then forced by circumstance again to confront their anguished past. Hernando is more recognizably in this category, though his chosen profession – ventriloquism – seems an odd choice till you think about it: vaudeville (or bodabil as colloquially known) was a popular artform in the 1950s, Diaz’s chosen time period; the ventriloquist was an established member of the vaudeville troupe. One may wonder if a Filipino ventriloquist can ever achieve nationwide recognition until one remembers Manuel Conde who started out as a ventriloquist, and some of whose early films featured performances with his puppet Kiko (the prints now lost, alas).  

So this figure steps out from among a gallery of familiar figures inhabiting Diaz’s films, practicing a period-accurate profession while enjoying period-accurate (somewhat) level of fame – but the period is crucial to Diaz’s thesis, and so (I submit) is the nature of his lead character’s profession.  

It’s 1957, and President Ramon Magsaysay has just been killed in a plane crash; journalist Jack Agawin (Erwin Romulo) is picking apart the late president’s legacy: “this cycle of mythmaking,” he darkly prophecies, “will keep on repeating here in the Philippines,” such that “the masses will vote false prophets and leaders.” Later one such leader, Among Kuyang (Teroy Guzman), will echo Agawin’s prediction with his own forecast: “Two decades from now we will have a leader from the North… six decades from now a leader from the South.” He adds with relish: “I like them a lot.” 

Diaz puts a finger on one big reason why the Philippine electorate time and time again makes poor choices: they’re in love with the idea of the savior-superman, a leader that will rise up and solve all our problems with a Presidential Decree or two. Agawin’s analysis is (as Congressman Torres [Jun Sabayton] puts it) “quite horrifying” if baldly stated, but, as in the best vaudeville magic, the obvious gesture is meant to distract the audience while the hidden hand performs the real trick: Hernando sitting in one corner drinking in Agawin’s postmortem and Among Kuyang’s forecast. One almost feels Hernando is reacting to this the same way he reacts to Rosetta’s rejection: with silence. In the face of such insanity (a presidential myth perpetuating two other myths, a woman giving herself up for her family’s debts) what else can one say?  

Which is where Ha (acronym of Hernando’s name, presumably) comes in. Most films involving ventriloquists (Magic, Dead of Night) have the dummy manifesting the performer’s id, saying things he wishes he could say, uttering thoughts that would be unspeakable in polite company but hilarious from a wooden mouth. Difference is that in those films the issues are personal while Ha talks of the grievous hurt of the world, in the form of jokes and poems. “How about you Hernando my friend?” Congressman Torres asks, “What’s your point of view?” Hernando pauses a beat: “I will have to talk to Ha.” Even this early Hernando is smart enough to use Ha as a way to express or obscure what he wants to say.  

Ha isn’t the kind of troublemaker Hugo or Fats is; if he lectures us on politics or the failures of human nature his lectures are softened with humor, couched in rhyme; he’s open and direct only with Hernando, in their long conversations together – first time in a field, where they talk over options and Hernando’s motives; later in the bathroom, when they discuss what to perform for their comeback show. Ha is sly, funny, sometimes cruel: “Loser,” he calls Hernando, for letting Rosetta’s decision get him down; their conversations together have the intimacy of longtime friends who don’t necessarily like each other but know each other too well (that Lloyd Cruz can do both sides of the conversation and that we accept this without much trouble says something of his acting skill). 

Hernando and Ha’s second long conversation takes place in the toilet, in front of a mirror, and eventually you realize that Hernando is talking to Ha, who’s perched on a windowsill to his left, at the same time he’s staring at himself in a mirror. Ha’s words here are even more cutting: the masses “are on the level of animals,” and he gleefully declares that they might as well dance with the devil. Lloyd Cruz plays a complicated game, peering over his shoulder when he wants to address Ha; when Ha speaks the voice sounds as if it’s coming from out of the glass.  

Visually speaking Diaz continues to make the ironic point that the rural Philippine landscape is breathtaking to behold, all towering screens of bamboo, broad canopies of narra and mango leaves, endless grassland – that folks could suffer crushing poverty in the midst of all that beauty is a maddening mad-inducing paradox. Early on, Hernando receives a letter from Rosetta that starts loving and turns out to be a tearful farewell; as Hernando sits digesting this mortal gut punch, Diaz has the sun pierce through a passing cloud and set the world on fire. Later, what is arguably the film’s most painful moment also happens to be its most beautiful: Hernando standing hip-deep in seawater with Ha while the moon glares down from high overhead, the belly of storm clouds crackling with thunder to the distant left. With each film and with his low-budget high-definition digital camera, Diaz only seems to grow as a filmmaker.  

I talk at length of the wanderers that walk through Diaz’ films and for a reason: I see them as iterations of Diaz himself, walking through each film and its unique challenges and posing to himself (and through him, us) the question: how would you feel? What would you do? And why? Diaz proposes yet another set of answers to the questions, different from his previous responses: not perhaps as ambiguous (though breathlessly timed) as in Panahon ng Halimaw, and not perhaps as quietly hopeful as in Ang Hupa. He has three men digging a hole in the ground, and the image suggests several implications: that of three men excavating a grave, presumably for Hernando’s previous hopes and dreams; that of a new building’s foundations mentioned in Hernando’s letter, a symbol of his present aspirations; and that of a latrine, a receptacle for human shit, which in fact is what the three are digging. Diaz leaves the image there for us to gaze at, pick which option suits our temperament, maybe come up with new possibilities of our own –  a Rorschach test we can project our hopes and fears on till the next time he presents a new set of questions. 

Historya ni Ha is one of the films being shown in the ongoing QCinema film festival. This year, QCinema is a hybrid festival with both on-site and online screenings. It is ongoing until Dec. 5, with theatrical screenings at the Gateway Cineplex 10 in Quezon City, and online streaming via KTX.ph.

Moderna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron – FT

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SYDNEY – The head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been previously, sparking fresh worry in financial markets about the trajectory of the pandemic.

“There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta,” Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview.

“I think it’s going to be a material drop. I just don’t know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I’ve talked to . . . are like ‘this is not going to be good.'”

Vaccine resistance could lead to more sickness and hospitalisations and prolong the pandemic, and his comments triggered selling in growth-exposed assets like oil, stocks and the Australian dollar.

Bancel added that the high number of mutations on the protein spike the virus uses to infect human cells meant it was likely the current crop of vaccines would need to be modified.

He had earlier said on CNBC that it could take months to begin shipping a vaccine that does work against Omicron.

Fear of the new variant, despite a lack of information about its severity, has already triggered delays to some economic reopening plans and the reimposition of some travel and movement restrictions. – Reuters

Macau gambling group Suncity’s shares plunge after CEO arrested

HONG KONG – Shares of Macau gambling group Suncity Group Holdings Ltd slumped 40% in resumed trade on Tuesday after its CEO was arrested over alleged links to cross-border gambling. The company said he intends to resign.

Alvin Chau, also the founder of Macau‘s biggest junket operator which brings in high rollers to play at casinos, was arrested by Macau police on Sunday and is the subject of an arrest warrant in mainland China – where all forms of gambling are illegal.

Macau authorities arrested Chau and 10 others, accusing them of using the world’s largest gambling hub as a base for an illegal “live web betting platform” in the Philippines that attracted mainland Chinese.

Authorities in the eastern Chinese city of Wenzhou have separately accused Chau of forming a junket agent network that helps citizens engage in offshore and cross-border gambling activities as well as setting up an asset management company that helps gamblers make cross-border fund transfers.

Cross-border flows of money due to gambling has long irked the Chinese government and Macau authorities said their investigation has been in train for two years.

That coincides roughly with the time that Suncity came under attack in China’s state media which criticised online gaming activities for causing what it described as great harm to China’s social economic order. Suncity said at the time it did not operate any online gaming.

Miao Shengming, an official with China’s top prosecutorial agency, said on Monday that some overseas casinos and online gambling websites primarily target mainland clients, harming China’s “economic security.”

“Out of those that go overseas to gamble, some bet enormous amounts, causing a huge outflow of funds,” Miao said.

Between 2018 and September this year, 255,850 people have been prosecuted in China for gambling offences, of which 63,238 were charged between January and September, he added.

Suncity’s stock was down 39.6% as of the midday session, valuing it at HK$1.03 billion ($132 million) and at one point fell 48% to a record low of HK$0.133.

Part of the Macau investigation involves Russia’s Tigre de Cristal resort which is close to China’s northeast border and is controlled by Hong Kong-listed Summit Ascent Holdings, of which Suncity is the controlling shareholder.

Shares of Summit Ascent slid 53.8%.

Suncity Group said in a statement late on Monday that allegations in the media that Tigre de Cristal was involved in cross-border gaming by soliciting customers in mainland China was untrue.

Suncity Group‘s operations would not be impacted in the event that it ceased to have Chau’s support, it added. – Reuters

World Bank works to redirect frozen funds to Afghanistan for humanitarian aid only -sources

WASHINGTON – The World Bank is finalizing a proposal to deliver up to $500 million from a frozen Afghanistan aid fund to humanitarian agencies, people familiar with the plans told Reuters, but it leaves out tens of thousands of public sector workers and remains complicated by U.S. sanctions.

Board members will meet informally on Tuesday to discuss the proposal, hammered out in recent weeks with U.S. and U.N. officials, to redirect the funds from the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF), which has a total of $1.5 billion.

Afghanistan‘s 39 million people face a cratering economy, a winter of food shortages and growing poverty three months after the Taliban seized power as the last U.S. troops withdrew from 20 years of war.

Afghan experts said the aid will help, but big gaps remain, including how to get the funds into Afghanistan without exposing the financial institutions involved to U.S. sanctions, and the lack of focus on state workers, the sources said.

The money will go mainly to addressing urgent health care needs in Afghanistan, where less than 7% of the population has been vaccinated against the coronavirus, they said.

For now, it will not cover salaries for teachers and other government workers, a policy that the experts say could hasten the collapse of Afghanistan‘s public education, healthcare and social services systems. They warn that hundreds of thousands of workers, who have been unpaid for months, could stop showing up for their jobs and join a massive exodus from the country.

The World Bank will have no oversight of the funds once transferred into Afghanistan, said one of the sources familiar with the plans. A U.S. official stressed that UNICEF and other recipient agencies would have “their own controls and policies in place.”

“The proposal calls for the World Bank to transfer the money to the U.N. and other humanitarian agencies, without any oversight or reporting, but it says nothing about the financial sector, or how the money will get into the country,” the source said, calling U.S. sanctions a major constraint.

 

‘NOT A SILVER BULLET’

While the U.S. Treasury has provided “comfort letters” assuring banks that they can process humanitarian transactions, concern about sanctions continues to prevent passage of even basic supplies, including food and medicine, the source added.

“It’s a scorched earth approach. We’re driving the country into the dust,” said the source. Crippling sanctions and failure to take care of public sector workers will “create more refugees, more desperation and more extremism.”

Any decision to redirect ARTF money requires the approval of all its donors, of which the United States has been the largest.

A State Department spokesperson confirmed that Washington is working with the World Bank and other donors on how to use the funds, including potentially paying those who work in “critical positions such as healthcare workers and teachers.”

The spokesperson said the U.S. government remains committed to meeting the  critical needs of the  Afghan people, “especially across health, nutrition, education, and food security sectors … but international aid is not a silver bullet.”

 

BYPASSING TALIBAN

Established in 2002 and administered by the World Bank, the ARTF was the largest financing source for Afghanistan‘s civilian budget, which was more than 70% funded by foreign aid.

The World Bank suspended disbursements after the Taliban takeover. At the same time, Washington stopping supplying U.S. dollars to the country and joined in freezing some $9 billion in Afghan central bank assets and halting financial assistance.

A World Bank spokesperson confirmed that staff and executive board members are exploring redirecting ARTF funds to U.N. agencies “to support humanitarian efforts,” but gave no further details. The United Nations declined to comment.

Initial work has also been done on a potential swap of U.S. dollars for Afghanis to deliver the funds into the country, but those plans are “basically just a few PowerPoint slides at this point,” one of the sources said. That approach would deposit ARTF funds in the international accounts of Afghan private institutions, who would disburse Afghanis from their Afghan bank accounts to humanitarian groups in Afghanistan, two sources said.

This would bypass the Taliban, thereby avoiding entanglement with the U.S. and U.N. sanctions, but the plan is complex and untested, and could take time to implement.

One major problem is the lack of a mechanism to monitor disbursements of funds in Afghanistan to ensure Taliban leaders and fighters do not access them, a third source said.

Two former U.S. officials familiar with internal administration deliberations said that some U.S. officials contend that U.S. and U.N. sanctions on Taliban leaders bar financial aid to anyone affiliated with their government. – Reuters

Cyber Monday spending expected to slow as shoppers see fewer deals

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U.S. retailers’ online sales likely slowed this Cyber Monday, as fewer discounts and limited choices due to global supply-chain disruptions deterred shoppers, but other data points suggested American consumers are in pretty good health.

Retailers had also spread out promotional deals across more weeks to protect profit margins from surging supply chain costs and to better manage inventories amid widespread product shortages ahead of the Christmas shopping season.

Those attempts have pinched sales on what are traditionally some of the biggest shopping days of the year, with Adobe Analytics data over the weekend showing spending online during Black Friday fell for the first time ever.

“Online sales on big shopping days like Thanksgiving and Black Friday are decreasing for the first time in history, and it is beginning to smooth out the shape of the overall season,” said Taylor Schreiner, director, Adobe Digital Insights.

U.S. spending on Cyber Monday crossed $7 billion as of 9 p.m. ET, according to the Adobe Digital Economy Index.

Adobe now expects consumers to spend between $10.4 billion and $11.1 billion and forecast that customers could spend $2.5 billion between 7 p.m. PT and 11 p.m. PT.

Early estimates showed spending to be between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion. That translates to roughly flat growth at the midpoint compared to last year’s $10.8 billion, which was a near 15% jump from 2019.

Excitement on social media around Cyber Monday is also ebbing.

Cyber Monday continues to be extremely relevant, particularly in the digital world, but the buzz has been more muted than we’ve seen in recent history,” said Rob Garf, general manager of retail at Salesforce.

Discount rates in the United States in the week leading up to Cyber Monday were on average 8% lower than last year, according to Salesforce.

The holiday season kicks off just as the new Omicron coronavirus variant has triggered uncertainty over the economic reopening, but experts say it is too early to predict the impact on consumer spending.

On Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, U.S. shoppers spent roughly $8.9 billion online, down from $9 billion a year earlier, according to Adobe data.

A separate data point released Monday by MasterCard SpendingPulse, which calculates overall U.S. retail sales across payment methods, found U.S. shoppers spent 14% more on merchandise excluding automobiles from Nov 26 to 28, compared to the same holiday weekend a year earlier. The estimates include purchases made in stores.

Shoppers spending online increased 5% over the three-day period compared to a year earlier, and by 28.7% when compared to the same period in 2019, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse. – Reuters

China factory activity unexpectedly grows as some bottlenecks ease

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BEIJING – China‘s factory activity unexpectedly picked up in November, growing for the first time in three months as the crippling surge in raw material prices and power rationing eased, taking some pressure off the manufacturing sector.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in November from 49.2 in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday.

The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction. Analysts had expected it to come in at 49.6.

The world’s second-largest economy, which staged an impressive rebound from last year’s pandemic slump, has lost momentum in the second half of this year as it grapples with slowing manufacturing, debt problems in the property market and COVID-19 outbreaks.

Analysts expect the slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP)seen in the third-quarter to continue in the fourth with demand expected to remain soft.

“A series of recently introduced policies and measures to ensure energy supply and stabilise market prices has been proven to be effective,” said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the NBS.

“Power rationing eased somewhat in November while prices for some raw materials dropped significantly, driving an expansion in manufacturing PMI.”

Reflecting the positive headline PMI, a subindex for production rose to 52.0 in November from 48.4 in October while new orders fell at a slower pace, although November marked the fourth straight month of declines in customer demand.

 

TEMPORARY REPRIEVE

There were also signs of relief elsewhere in Asia with Japanese factory output rising for the first time in four months in October as facilities in other parts of the region resumed operations after COVID-19 closures.

The supply resumption helped cool the prices of crucial production materials.

A sub-index for input prices in the Chinese PMI stood at 52.9 in November, down significantly from 72.1 in the previous month, pointing to easing cost pressures.

That drove prices charged lower, falling for the first time since May 2020.

Despite the improvement, Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust, said he expects the manufacturing PMI to hover around 50 for the months to come, due to constraining factors such as power curbs, high raw material prices and weaker consumption.

Analysts also warn that there could be new restrictions on manufacturing in northern China due to the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics while the impact from new COVID-19 strain Omicron on China‘s economy remains to be seen.

Factory gate inflation hit a 26-year high in October, further squeezing profit margins for producers and heightening stagflation concerns. As a result, policy sources say China‘s central bank will likely move cautiously on loosening monetary policy to bolster the economy.

Premier Li Keqiang last week acknowledged that China‘s economy faces new downward pressures but said authorities should avoid “aggressive” one-size-fits-all policy responses.

In contrast to the uptick in the factory sector, growth in the services sector slowed slightly with the official non-manufacturing PMI in November easing to 52.3 from 52.4 in October.

Fresh lockdown measures as China raced to contain the latest COVID-19 outbreak have weighed on services activity, which has been otherwise propped up by brisk construction.

The construction activity subindex rose to 59.1 in November from 56.9.

China‘s official October composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, stood at 52.2, up from October’s 50.8. – Reuters

UN urges Philippines to let Nobel laureate Ressa travel to Norway

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UNITED NATIONS – The United Nations on Monday urged the Philippines to allow Nobel Prize winning journalist Maria Ressa to travel to Norway next month to accept the award.Ressa, the first Nobel laureate from the Philippines, shared the Peace Prize with Russian investigative journalist Dmitry Muratov, a move widely seen as an endorsement of free speech rights, which are under fire worldwide.Ressa has requested government approval to travel to Norway to receive the Nobel Peace Prize on Dec. 10.Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said the United Nations was “very concerned” about travel restrictions placed on Ressa by the government.“We urge the government of the Philippines to immediately withdraw any such restrictions and allow her to travel to Oslo,” Dujarric told reporters in New York.The license for Ressa’s news site, Rappler, has been suspended and she has faced legal action for various reasons. Supporters say she has been targeted for her scrutiny of government policies, including a bloody war on drugs launched by President Rodrigo Duterte.The ranking of the Philippines in the 2021 World Press Freedom Index dropped two notches to 138 out of 180 countries, and the Committee to Protect Journalists ranks the Philippines seventh in the world in its impunity index, which tracks deaths of media members whose killers go free.The government denies hounding media and says any problems faced by organisations are legal, not political. It says it believes in free speech. – Reuters

Duterte’s preferred successor quits presidential race

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MANILA – Philippine Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, the preferred successor of Rodrigo Duterte, said on Tuesday he was withdrawing his candidacy for presidency.Go, President Duterte’s long-time aide, had recently hinted he may drop out of the race and his withdrawal leaves the administration without a presidential candidate. It was not clear yet who Duterte will now support. “I and President Duterte are ready to support whoever will truly serve and can continue and protect Duterte’s legacy towards a more comfortable and safe and prosperous life for our children,” Go said in a short speech streamed on Facebook.Go said he was making the “supreme sacrifice for the good of the country and for the sake of unity among our supporters and leaders.” Duterte’s daughter, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio is running for the deputy post alongside the son of late Philippine dictator and namesake, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has emerged as an early frontrunner. The Southeast Asian nation of 110 million people holds elections in May 2022 for positions from president down to governors, mayors and local officials.Duterte, 76, is barred by the constitution from seeking re-election but he will run for a seat in the senate next year. – Reuters

BSP: Nov. inflation likely on target

INFLATION this month is likely to be within target, as a stronger peso and oil price reductions tempered the rise in consumer prices, according to the Philippine central bank.

The consumer price index would probably increase by 3.3% to 4.1% this month, based on estimates by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), Governor Benjamin E. Diokno told reporters in a Viber message on Monday.

The estimate is much slower than the 4.6% rise in consumer prices last month and could be within the BSP’s 2-4% target. The central bank had forecast November inflation at 3.7%, faster than 3.3% a year earlier.

“Higher electricity and liquefied petroleum gas prices along with the uptick in the prices of meat, fish, fruits and vegetables are the primary sources of inflationary pressures during the month,” Mr. Diokno said.

“Moving forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging price developments to help achieve its primary mandate of price stability that is conducive to balanced and sustainable growth of the economy,” he added.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will report November inflation data on Dec. 7.

Manila Electric Co. said the power rates for typical households increased by P0.3256 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) from a month earlier to P9.463/kWh in November due to higher generation charges.

Mr. Diokno said oil price rollbacks and a stronger peso against the dollar during the month might have slowed price increases.

The peso closed at P50.39 a dollar on Monday, 2.5 centavos stronger than its P50.415 close on Oct. 29, according to data posted on the Bankers Association of the Philippines website.

This was the second straight month-on-month appreciation of the local currency, although it is still weaker than its P48.023 a dollar close on Dec. 29 last year.

The central bank kept the key policy rates steady on Nov. 18, saying it would focus on supporting economic recovery that had gained traction.

At the same Monetary Board meeting, it revised its average inflation forecast for the year to 4.3% from 4.4%.

Inflation for the 10 months to October averaged at 4.5%. It has exceeded the central bank’s target this year except in July, amid low meat supply and a surge in global oil prices.

The Monetary Board will decide on key interest rates for the last time this year on Dec. 16. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

Gov’t asked to regulate borders to prevent surge from Omicron variant 

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By Luz Wendy T. Noble, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES should tighten border patrols and boost its vaccination drive to prevent another infection surge that could come from a potentially more contagious Omicron variant of the coronavirus, analysts said on Monday.

Failure to do so could force the government to enforce strict lockdowns again that could end up being too late, they said.

The risks from the new variant from Africa remained unknown, but it could potentially cause another infection wave, Moody’s Analytics said.

“First, will policy makers in the region respond by accelerating vaccination programs?” Moody’s Analytics Chief Asia-Pacific Economist Steven Cochrane said in a note. He added that countries including Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia, India, Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam have vaccinated fewer than 65% of their citizens.

The Philippines has fully vaccinated 40.58% of its population, based on data from the Johns Hopkins University. The government has launched a three-day national vaccination drive until Wednesday as it targets to vaccinate nine million Filipinos.

The World Health Organization has called the Omicron variant a variant of concern, citing its likelihood of becoming more contagious.

“Adequate public health facilities, particularly intensive care units and isolation beds would alleviate the pressure on the healthcare system,” Mr. Cochrane said separately in an e-mail. “Countries simply cannot let down their guard. They must learn from the past.”

Based on previous infection surges, border closures might help contain the latest coronavirus variant, said Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, a senior economist at ING Bank N.V. Manila.

“The worst-case scenario is a potential return to hard lockdowns and as experience has shown, prevention is always less costly than the cure,” he said in a separate note.

“We can take comfort in the knowledge that the Philippines posted a remarkable 7.1% year-on-year growth in the third quarter despite the presence of the Delta strain,” he added. But such growth also came from an 11.6% contraction a year earlier.

Philippine economic output expanded by 4.9% in the nine months to September, which was within the government’s 4-5% goal. Last year, the economy shrank by a record 9.6%.

Mr. Mapa said the government should be aware of the potential threats from the Omicron variant after it relaxed quarantines amid decreasing coronavirus infections.

“We do know that higher cases generally lead to slower economic output and a possible unwanted detour for our nascent recovery,” he added.

Active coronavirus infections in the Philippines rose by 665 to 16,289 on Monday, the Health department said in a bulletin. Active cases reached almost 200,000 at the height of the Delta-induced surge in September.

An Omicron-induced infection wave could affect the deployment of Filipino workers overseas amid potentially more border closures, Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said in a Viber message.

Cash remittances from migrant Filipino workers that fuel the country’s economy through increased household spending have risen by 5.6% to $23.117 billion as of end-September from a year earlier.

“The Omicron variant could also potentially add to the global supply chain disruptions in terms of production and shipments,” Mr. Ricafort said.

Fully vaccinated people from countries not required to get a Philippine visa may enter the country from Dec. 1 to 15, the government said on Friday, only to suspend the plan on Monday because of the threat from the Omicron variant.

The Philippines last week started suspending flights from South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Eswatini and Mozambique, where the virus mutation that is potentially more contagious is present.

The variant was first discovered in South Africa and has since been detected in Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Czech Republic and Hong Kong.

On Sunday, the Philippines also suspended flights from Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, The Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy.

Tourists trickle into Philippine paradise as latest variant stares world in its face

LAURENTIU MORARIU-UNSPLASH

By Luz Wendy T. Noble, Reporter

WAILING KIDS are at the jam-packed Caticlan seaport that leads to the world-famous Boracay Island in central Philippines.

A mother tries to bargain for quiet through nursery rhymes on YouTube, while fanning herself during an oppressively hot weather. It could well have been a picture before the coronavirus hit, only this time, people wore face masks.

Editha Regualos, a mother who works for a Netherlands-headquartered customer support company, went to Boracay with her husband and their four-year-old daughter this month after the government lifted a 20-month lockdown for children.

“My daughter knows Boracay and she was excited when she found out we were coming here,” she said in an interview while checking out fancy souvenirs at a stall along Boracay’s beachfront.

The government is banking on local families visiting tourist spots to revive an industry battered by various levels of lockdown for the past 20 months, even as the threat of an Omicron coronavirus variant from Africa looms.

The Philippine central bank held its seventh policy review this year at Shangri-La Boracay, the island’s most prestigious resort. It was also the first time the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) allowed journalists to cover the event since a strict lockdown was first imposed on the entire Luzon Island in mid-March last year.

“This is our small contribution to the normalization of the economy,” central bank Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said in a speech at a welcome dinner. “What a comeback event — in Boracay.”

There are still not too many people at the D’Mall near the main white beach, but the sight of tourists slowly coming back gives Manny B. Danay, a hotel driver, hope.

Mr. Danay sold rice cakes online when there were no visitors, his market made up of locals and stranded tourists. He recalled how the island experienced a tourist drought in 2018, when Boracay was closed for rehabilitation.

It’s much worse this time, he said.

In 2020, foreign visitor arrivals shrank by 82% to 1.482 million from a year earlier, according to data from the Immigration bureau.

Gina O. Reyes, a saleslady at a souvenir shop, lost her job during the lockdown and her husband became the family’s sole breadwinner.

“The tourists are coming back, but it’s nowhere near the number in 2019,” she said in an interview in Filipino. “I don’t get my full daily salary yet.”

Emet R. Sendin, resident manager at Belmont Hotel Boracay, said they are already seeing signs of recovery. Before the crisis, 200 of their 300 rooms were occupied. Now, they have opened 50 rooms, 30 of which are occupied — higher than the 10 they used to have.

Belmont catered mostly to Chinese tourists before the crisis, he said.

“What this pandemic taught us is not to rely on a specific market,” he said. “We appreciate returning Filipinos for supporting tourism. It really helps us.”

Vanessa A. Andrade, restaurant manager at Cafe Del Sol Boracay, said tourism is far from what it used to be. “In terms of recovery, we’re still very far. There are still days when we have no customers at all.”

The tourism industry accounted for 12.7% of economic output in 2019, based on data from the local statistics agency. By 2020, when the pandemic started, its contribution to the economy had dropped to 5.4% — the lowest in two decades.

In 2020, the sector employed 11.9% of the country’s workers, down from 13.6% a year earlier.

Fully vaccinated people from countries not required to get a Philippine visa may enter the country from Dec. 1 to 15, the government said on Friday, only to suspend the plan three days later amid the threat from the Omicron variant.

The Philippines started suspending flights from South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Eswatini and Mozambique, where the virus mutation that is potentially more contagious is present.

The variant was first discovered in South Africa and has since been detected in Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Czech Republic and Hong Kong.

On Sunday, the Philippines also suspended flights from Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, The Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy.

REOPENING
Ms. Andrade, the restaurant manager, eagerly awaits the return of foreign tourists to Boracay. While they are grateful for local tourists, foreigners spend more on food during their vacation, she said.

Jose C. Clemente III, Tourism Congress of the Philippines president, said reopening the Philippines to foreign tourists would mark the beginning of the industry’s revival. “People are excited and hungry for travel,” he said in a Viber message before the policy for vaccinated foreigners was recalled.

Allowing the entry of foreign tourists resembles the “same mistake of March 2020,” when the country failed to quickly close its borders just as the global health crisis started, said John Paolo R. Rivera, associate director of the Dr. Andrew L. Tan Center for Tourism at the Asian Institute of Management.

“Opening our country to foreign tourists is similar to that same mistake, because we know that the COVID-19 situation remains fluid and we have yet to attain herd immunity.” he said in a Zoom Cloud Meetings interview.

The Philippines has fully vaccinated 40.6% of its population, based on data from the Johns Hopkins University. Thailand, which has reopened its border to foreigners, has a higher vaccination rate of 57.7%.

Mr. Rivera said it’s better to focus for now on domestic travelers, who accounted for about 80% of tourism receipts even before the coronavirus pandemic hit, compared with the 20% share of foreign travelers.

Meanwhile, Boracay’s tourism workers think there are better ways to help spur the return of travelers to the island. They cited how a QR code system has become a headache for some visitors, some of whom fail to get one before arriving in Aklan province where Boracay is.

“When the QR doesn’t work, we are affected because the travelers have a hard time entering Boracay,” Ms. Andrade said.

Mr. Sendin from Belmont said the government should streamline rules and make them uniform across key destinations to encourage more travel.

During the pandemic, Boracay remains a paradise where the weary can find rest just by watching its postcard-worthy sunset or by strolling barefoot on its powdery sand. But for the island’s workers, the island is also their lifeline.

Mr. Danay, the hotel driver, hopes the government’s vaccine rollout would lead to more visitors, whether local or foreign. “We hope and pray that more visitors will come. Many of us are raring to get our jobs back.”

Revenue from marked fuel hits P324 billion

JCOMP-FREEPIK

DUTIES AND TAXES collected from marked fuel products had reached P324.46 billion as of Nov. 25, counting back to 2019 when the program started, according to the Department of Finance (DoF).

The volume of levied fuel had hit 32.88 billion liters since Sept. 4, 2019, based on data sent by Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III to reporters via Viber on Monday.

Revenue included P294.64 billion in Customs duties and P29.81 billion in excise tax.

Almost three-quarters of the marked fuel came from Luzon, a fifth from Mindanao and 5.47% from the Visayas.

Diesel accounted for 60.98% and gasoline had a 38.49% share, with kerosene taking the rest.

The program seeks to deter fuel smuggling by injecting a special dye into the products to signify tax compliance. The absence of the dye means the fuel was probably smuggled.

The government in September last year started collecting a fuel marking fee of P0.06884 a liter, inclusive of value-added tax on manufactured, refined and imported petroleum products.

The government has lost as much as P40 billion from fuel smuggling, the DoF has said.

The House Committee on Ways and Means approved a bill on Nov. 11 that seeks to suspend or lower the excise tax on some fuel products for six months amid rising global oil prices.

Albay Rep. Jose Ma. Clemente S. Salceda, who heads the House body, said the House of Representatives was likely to approve the measure.

But the DoF has said suspending the excise tax on fuel would likely improve the disposable income of wealthier households faster than others, making the tax relief inequitable. — Jenina P. Ibañez