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The food delivery wave

FREEPIK

The restaurant industry is among the most affected sectors in this pandemic. Not only have the lockdowns curtailed dine-in sales, the fear of infection continues to discourage millions from going out and patronizing their favorite restaurants.

According to the European Journal of Social Psychology, it takes 66 days for behaviors to become a habit. Living under the COVID regime for 20 months has left consumers with the habit of consuming restaurant food at home via delivery service. Eating at home is now ingrained in our DNA and home delivery will comprise the bulk of restaurant sales as we move forward. Thus, it is imperative that restaurants have a delivery mechanism and online ordering platform to thrive.

Although there will always be a space for experiential dining within the confines of a restaurants, it will no longer be the principal source of sales for most establishments. Those with enormous dining rooms will have to downsize. Studies further show that for the majority of restaurant types, it is more advantageous to have smaller but more plentiful restaurants in areas where people live and work (for ease in food delivery) rather than bigger restaurants in expensive commercial centers.

With rapidly evolving market conditions, it is important for industry players to understand the emerging trends. As an industry insider, I was fortunate to secure a copy of the Food Trends Report commissioned by a regional (ASEAN) food delivery portal. Let me share the pertinent findings that relate to the Philippine market.

The food delivery sector clocked-in gross revenues of P55 billion last year. One third of all meals consumed by Filipinos were ordered from restaurants while two-thirds were home cooked. Fifty percent of customers decide what they want to eat based on what they see on the app. No surprise, subscriptions to food delivery aggregators, like Grab Food and Food Panda, increased by a whopping 61% over the last year. There is no escaping it — restaurants need to be visible in food aggregator apps given their household penetration.

The downside, however, is that food delivery aggregators take a percentage of sales, sometimes as high as 25%. This is the price restaurants pay for being included in the app and for the logistics services provided. Whereas in the pre-COVID years, the malls were those taking a percentage of sales from restaurant operators, today, it is the delivery aggregators. Restaurant operators will be hard-pressed to survive if they have to pay both. To maintain profit margins, it should be one or the other.

Families with children are the principal patrons of home delivery services. Statistics show that 52% of patrons are married with kids, with an average household size of 4.5 people. Sixty five percent of those booking the order are between 25 to 44 years old. As of last year, 78% ordered food for the family and not just themselves.

The top three reasons for patronizing a restaurant are: first, to satisfy cravings for food that cannot be cooked at home; second, for lack of time to cook; and third, for convenience. It is easier to eat at home than having to deal with traffic and/or parking.

Lunch is the biggest market for food delivery, followed by dinner and afternoon snacks. Breakfast and midnight snacks are the timeslots that generate the least orders. The top 10 food items sought after or searched for by Filipinos are the following (not in order): pizza, doughnuts, milk tea, cakes, burgers, bakery items, Chinese food, coffee, Filipino food, and fried chicken. Interestingly, cake sales are expanding the fastest, having grown 260% between 2019 and 2020.

Eating healthily is now a growing trend among Filipino consumers. Three in four Filipinos claim they want to eat in a healthy manner, 60% of whom say they are even willing to pay a premium for a healthy meal. Orders from restaurants that offer healthy options have increased by 400% last year. Trending are salads, the use of organic ingredients, immunity boosters, those with less salt or sugar, and those with less oil and/or calories. So strong is the healthy trend that many restaurants are now tweaking their menus to include healthy options.

Also high on the search list are food items that are “old favorites” but difficult to prepare at home. This includes dishes like pizza and pasta for the Italian category, specialty dimsum and hot viands for Chinese, kare-kare, lengua estofado, and crispy pata for Filipino, and cakes and pastries for dessert.

Data shows that Filipino families patronize an average of 2.5 restaurants brands per month. The reasons that drive patronage are: variety of choice 71%; value for money 54%; perks and promotions 48%; and visual appeal of the menu 43%.

It is recommended that restaurants pack their menu with low-cost dishes as these encourage consumers to order multiple items, thus, driving up the total bill. A low-cost item is anything below P150. The caveat, however, is that consumers prefer short menus, rather than kilometric selections.

As far as promotions are concerned, 82% of Filipinos prefer buy-one take-one, 82% like free delivery charge, and 69% product discount. Bundling with drinks, desserts, or side dishes have proven to be effective too.

Consumers are spoiled. Studies show that establishments with a customer feedback score lower than 4.8 rating (out of five) are not considered prime choices. And should a restaurant fumble an order or deliver food that is below quality expectations, the probability of them losing the customer permanently is 70%.

Delivery is now the name of the game as far as food service goes in the Philippines. Restaurant operators who excel in this segment stand to reap rich rewards.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

andrew_rs6@yahoo.com

Facebook@AndrewJ. Masigan

Twitter @aj_masigan

Disagreement fatigue

VECTORJUICE-FREEPIK

Listening to Bishop Robert Barron on his Word on Fire videocast while having a lethargic breakfast. He does spark some energy over a seemingly predetermined day of continued languishing in the long-playing COVID pandemic. His topic on that dank and dreary morning singed the consciousness: Am I experiencing what is called “Disagreement Fatigue,” or a refusal to argue for, and defend what I think is right? Am I just languishing in non-controversial, non-adversarial lethargy?

Bishop Barron takes off from an article by Evangelical apologist Natasha Crain, “Disagreement Fatigue” in which she predicted that from the violent upheavals of 2020 (the pandemic, world recession, US elections, racial protests, terrorism, wars), people in 2021 and onward for some yet unknown number of years more will refrain from controversy and indulge in passivity, perhaps to lessen stress and anxiety. “Many people are looking for easy harmony rather than knowledge to help them better engage when there’s an opportunity to do so,” Crain says.

Yes, Bishop Barron agrees that religion and politics are sure-fire topics for arguments, often leading to fights. But he cautions against the creeping “Disagreement Fatigue” that deadens and kills mind and soul more than physical violence or social rejection. Is the present growing inclination to non-controversy more noticeable among generational levels? Well, maybe because they are more in numbers, the millennials and Generation X are observed to be more “allergic to disagreements,” Bishop Barron observes. Their independence and individuality are abetted by social media, in which responses are often “snarky one-liner comments which are not arguments at all.”

And Bishop Barron cites the growing-up stories of the post-1960s generations, JRR Tolkien’s The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings. Bilbo Baggins, the elder of the Shire has a perfect little hobbit house with all the amenities that symbolize peace and harmony in the village. Yet his nephew, Frodo, decides to leave the Shire to join and defend the Fellowship of the Rings, suffering trials and tribulations in the adventure, guided by the strict and exacting good wizard, Gandalf.

Such is moral strength: we must leave our safe space to be relevant and helpful to others, in the love and service to God and fellowmen. “If you are afraid to go out, you are not alive,” Bishop Barron admonishes. He echoes the challenge of St. John Paul II who repeatedly quoted Luke 5:4, “Duc in altum!” Jesus said that from Simon Peter’s boat when He was recruiting His disciples: “Put out into the deep” — cast your nets and be fishers of men. And the chosen apostles, were amazed at how heavy their nets were with the catch.

Be proactive — cast your net forth like the Apostles. Be adventurous — like Frodo venturing out from the Shire (tradition, a “safe place”). Yet Bishop Barron (pejoratively dubbed “Bishop of the Internet” by critics) is not without controversy for his actively coming forth in defense of liberal changes in the Catholic Church post-Vatican II and of Pope Francis. Now still battling against “Disagreement Fatigue” (also called Indifference), Bishop Barron has not relented despite open criticism by some Catholics who violently protest controversies against gay marriages, sex-offender priests, and pro-choice/abortion, among others. He was most controversial at the 2020 US Presidential Elections, when American Catholics were divided between Republican re-electionist Donald Trump (a non-denominational Christian) who was against legalizing abortion, and Democratic candidate Joe Biden (a Roman Catholic) who toed his party line of free choice for abortion. Bishop Barron endorsed Biden, considering that even if a law legalized abortion for the overwhelming 78% majority of US citizens who are not Roman Catholics, the Roman Catholics would still be bound in conscience by the law of the Church against abortion.

Yes, mundane politics insinuates into the spiritual, mental, emotional and physical lives of all. Pope Francis said in a Sunday homily, “A good Catholic meddles in politics, offering the best of himself, so that those who govern can govern. None of us can say, ‘I have nothing to do with this, they govern.’ Citizens are responsible for participating in politics according to their ability, and in this way are responsible for their leadership” (https://www.catholicnewsagency.com, Sept. 16, 2013).

The Pope reiterated this at the recent international video conference, “A Politics Rooted in the People,” saying “the true response to the rise of populism is precisely not more individualism but quite the opposite: a politics of fraternity, rooted in the life of the people.” In his message in his latest book Let us Dream, he calls this “a politics with a capital P, politics as service, which opens new pathways for the people to organize and express themselves.” This type of politics, he continues, is “not just for the people, but with the people, rooted in their communities and in their values” (https://www.vaticannews.va, April 15, 2021).

Pope Francis and Bishop Barron might have been talking to us Filipino Roman Catholics, estimated at 85% of the population, or about 84 million in 2015 (inquirer.net, Aug. 11, 2013). We have most crucial national elections coming up on May 9, 2022. In this time of critical discernment about whom should we choose to be our next leaders in government, we are still focused on our health and survival in the stranglehold of the terrible COVID pandemic that has lorded over our lives since early 2020. It’s just too much!

Are we experiencing what is called “Disagreement Fatigue,” or a refusal to argue for and defend what we think is right? Are we just languishing in non-controversial, non-adversarial lethargy?

We know our present governance well enough, whether we are pro- or anti- the ruling leaders, or for or against those wanting to be voted into power come May 9, 2022. Sad to say, but the differences in opinion or choice may sometimes boil down to net effect on personal circumstances or expectations. The pan-rattling of oppositionists in social media (where else, no choice in the pandemic) is countered by the massive erosion of Truth from the deluge of Fake News by paid trolls. Lying and cheating by candidates who have re-invented themselves and revised history is acceptable, even that the money stolen from the country is re-packaged as “gifts” to the needy.

Does the protest noise even penetrate the patched-up hovels of the poor, who hear and feel only the rumbling of empty stomachs? The country’s poverty rate is projected to average between 15.5% and 17.5% in 2021, likely near the 16.6% posted in 2018, officials of the National Economic and Development Authority said. Joblessness will remain elevated at around 7% to 9% by 2022 (Rappler, Feb. 4, 2021). Perhaps only those who have the wherewithal can indulge in the perverse luxury of anxieties and depression about the recklessly careening future of the country and of the family and worry about the coming national elections.

No time for “Disagreement Fatigue.” Time to venture out from “Safe Space” for those who can do something for good, honest elections. Reach out to the misled or unconcerned to vote for good leaders who will selflessly serve the people. Help positively and actively to realign the collective consciousness to what is Right and Good, to Truth and Justice.

Duc in altum!

 

Amelia H. C. Ylagan is a doctor of Business Administration from the University of the Philippines.

ahcylagan@yahoo.com

Europe relapses to become COVID hot spot

REUTERS

EUROPE has again become an epicenter for the coronavirus, calling into question the region’s efforts to recover from the pandemic.

Despite an abundance of Covid-19 shots, countries from Germany to Greece have reported record infections in recent days, while Romania and Bulgaria are experiencing horrific levels of fatalities and overwhelmed hospitals.

That’s putting fresh urgency into efforts to vaccinate the masses, whether that means getting first doses into the arms of tens of millions of vaccine holdouts or preparing to offer booster shots to hundreds of millions of others.

While governments are reluctant to reintroduce lockdowns, countries like Latvia have already concluded there is currently little alternative.

Here’s an overview of the pandemic from across Europe after a sobering week:

GERMANY
Germany’s fourth Covid wave is hitting hard, with infections reaching record levels this week and hospitals in some hot spots becoming overwhelmed. The country is now calling on all adults to get booster shots six months after their second doses, with Health Minister Jens Spahn saying that should be “the rule, not the exception.”

With 16 million Germans who are eligible for Covid shots having thus far refused them, authorities have little recourse but to push for greater protection for those willing to roll up their sleeves. The country’s efforts to respond are further complicated by a change in power. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s authority is fading as Social Democrat Olaf Scholz proceeds with efforts to form a new government.

UNITED KINGDOM
Coronavirus infections in England reached a new high in October, according to large study by Imperial College London. UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid said that the study sends an “important message” about remaining vigilant heading into winter.

Last month, the country kicked off its largest-ever flu shot drive to address concerns over a spike in Covid cases coinciding with a resurgent flu. National Health Service walk-in centers in England have started offering coronavirus boosters for at-risk people without an appointment. Britain’s regulator also became the first in the world to approve Merck & Co.’s Covid-19 antiviral pill.

ITALY
In Italy, some northern regions, including Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia, have seen a fast increase in cases, linked in part to protests by anti-vaccine activists against the introduction of a mandatory pass. The rise has prompted authorities to make a renewed push for people to get shots.

“We are working to extend the booster dose to new age groups starting next week,” Health Minister Roberto Speranza said Friday at a press conference in Rome. “We still need to catch up on first doses and accelerate on the third ones.”

FRANCE
In France, where government curbs helped keep infections at relatively low levels, cases are again beginning to rise. Officials across the country will reinstitute mask-wearing mandates in schools, while President Emmanuel Macron will take stock of the situation in an address to the nation on Tuesday.

Mr. Macron’s policy of requiring proof of vaccination for restaurants, cinemas and other venues helped bolster the immunization campaign and has been widely credited with keeping case counts, hospitalizations and deaths at lower levels than some neighboring countries. The French legislature passed a bill Friday that would keep the vaccine passport system in place as long as the end of July 2022, and officials are now encouraging older people to get booster shots.

SPAIN
Spain is a rare bright spot in Europe. Infections have remained low since September, with hospitalizations continuing to fall markedly.

Over 88% of people 12 and older are completely vaccinated and more than 1 million people have received a booster shot since the government approved the measure in early October.

PORTUGAL
While Portugal on Thursday reported the highest number of daily cases since Sept. 9, the latest figures are still just a fraction of the January peak, when the country faced one of the world’s worst outbreaks.

About 86% of the country’s population is now completely vaccinated, among the highest rates in the world.

About 86% of the Portugal’s population is completely vaccinated according to the government.

IRELANDIreland’s daily case numbers are at their highest since January. The country held off plans to drop most remaining restrictions last month.

Deputy Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Friday refused to rule out new limits on activity before the end of the year if the health system comes under renewed pressure.

GREECE
In Greece, five record highs over the past six days has prompted a fresh round of restrictions, with unvaccinated individuals now needing to show a negative Covid test in order to visit some shops, beauty salons and restaurants.

The measures exempted supermarkets and drug stores, but also churches, which sparked more criticism over the government’s handling of the pandemic.

DENMARK
In Denmark, where more than 75% of the population is fully vaccinated, the number of daily cases has doubled in the last 10 days and hospitalizations have spiked.

Soren Brostrom, head of the country’s health authority, on Thursday urged the government to re-introduce some restrictions, including the use of Covid-19 passports at public events.

HUNGARY
Hungary’s slow vaccine campaign and lack of Covid measures has helped fuel one of the world’s fastest growth rates in infections.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban is now trying to tighten some restrictions, including re-introducing a mask mandate on public transportation. Employers are also allowed to demand vaccine certificates from workers, who can be sent on unpaid leave if they refuse. In a state radio interview on Friday, Mr. Orban said further curbs may be introduced later, without providing specifics.

CZECH REPUBLIC
The Czech Republic recorded its worst week of infections since March, when it endured one of the deadliest outbreaks in the world. Hospitalizations are at a six-month high, and fatalities are also rising.

The country is tightening rules to make it harder for unvaccinated people to visit restaurants as well as sporting and cultural events. But the outgoing government is refusing to impose harsher social distancing measures or shut down parts of the economy again. — Bloomberg

Iraq prime minister safe after residence attacked by drone

THE SHADOW of an Iraqi demonstrator is seen on an Iraqi flag in Kerbala, Iraq, Jan. 10, 2020. — REUTERS

BAGHDAD — A drone laden with explosives targeted the residence of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Baghdad early on Sunday in what the Iraqi military called an attempted assassination, but said Mr. Kadhimi escaped unhurt.

The attack, which security sources said injured several members of Mr. Kadhimi’s personal protection detail, came after protests in the Iraqi capital over the result of a general election last month turned violent.

The United States Department of State condemned the attack and offered assistance with the investigation.

“This apparent act of terrorism, which we strongly condemn, was directed at the heart of the Iraqi state,” spokesman Ned Price said in a statement. “We are in close touch with the Iraqi security forces charged with upholding Iraq’s sovereignty and independence and have offered our assistance as they investigate this attack.”

The groups leading protests and complaints about the result of the Oct. 10 vote are heavily-armed Iran-backed militias which lost much of their parliamentary power in the election. They have alleged voting and vote-counting irregularities.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack on Mr. Kadhimi’s residence in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and foreign embassies.

A statement from the Iraqi military said that the attack targeted Kadhimi’s residence and that he was in “good health”. It provided no further detail.

Mr. Kadhimi’s official Twitter account said the prime minister was safe and called for calm.

Two government officials said Mr. Kadhimi’s residence had been hit by at least one explosion and confirmed to Reuters that the prime minister was safe.

Security sources told Reuters that six members of Mr. Kadhimi’s personal protection force stationed outside his residence had been injured.

Western diplomats based nearby in the Green Zone said they heard explosions and gunfire in the area.

Supporters of Iran-aligned militia groups which have grown their power in parliament and government in recent years have protested the results of the October election.

Demonstrations by their supporters turned violent on Friday when protestors pelted police with stones near the Green Zone, injuring several officers.

The police responded with tear gas and live gunfire, killing at least one demonstrator, according to security and hospital sources in Baghdad.

Independent analysts say the election results were a reflection of anger towards the Iran-backed armed groups, which are widely accused of involvement in the killing of nearly 600 protesters who took the street in separate, anti-government demonstrations in 2019. — Reuters

10 reasons why millennials should get a life insurance

As millennials, we tend to believe we don’t need life insurance because we’re young and healthy. Most of us are career-driven, and it’s true that we can be busy trying to save up for our future and our growing responsibilities that it might sound too early to think about death.

But when it comes to planning for the future, it’s when we need insurance more than we think we do, especially when faced with responsibilities. If you’re thinking of getting one, Frances Chua, one of the longest platinum qualifiers in 2021, gives 10 reasons as to why you should go for it:

1. Everybody needs protection — young or old.

We might think we are young and healthy now, but no age is immune to accidents and illnesses. Like how the saying goes: prevention is better than cure. We need protection just as much as older people do.

2. It’s more affordable.

Being young means we are considered low-risk customers, which can also mean lower costs, and it can be more beneficial if we are living a healthy lifestyle. This is more fitting to be applied on insurance premiums because the application is settled without rating.

3. Protection and investment: hitting two birds with one stone.

As we work for our future, we tend to prioritize investment over protection — but we can do both. Insurance protects us and our assets, but it can also be a form of investment.

“Plans like VUL funds from Sun Life is a good starting point because it provides both,” suggests Chua, “Or you may opt for the Fit and Well plan, which is more affordable. It covers critical illness even if you’re young and healthy.”

4. Insurance is our spare tire.

Imagine you’re driving somewhere with your car, but you have no spare tire. When you get a flat tire, there will be more obstacles before you get to your destination such as more costs from service and the like. This is what insurance represents — it helps us reach our goals despite unpredicted troubles that might come along the way.

5. Become 10 steps ahead when planning for the future.

As career-driven people, we tend to become competitive and eager to reach our goal. With an insurance policy, we are already 10 steps ahead. Our future is secured, and at the same time, we accumulate more savings.

6. Life insurance also caters to low-income groups. 

If we are balancing with familial responsibilities partnered with insufficient income, it can be difficult to consider spending money. But insurance doesn’t have to be a burden in our pockets. Companies like Sun Life offer whole life plans where premiums remain the same, or term insurance that is best suited for low-income groups. So worry not — we all have the right to be protected.

7. A backup from your company insurance.

You may be an employee with a covered insurance, but sometimes it can be insufficient. And when you quit your job, you won’t be able to take the benefit with you. Hence, it’s best to provide a backup.

8. Avoid expensive funerals.

We know that burials and funerals are a part of Filipino tradition we can never dismiss, but they’re also getting expensive. Insurance gets this covered. Whether you have dependents or not, when worse comes to worst, it’s better to spare your family from funeral costs.

9. Spare your family from debts.

As we work hard for a secured future, debts are unavoidable, but so are accidents. Should anything happen to us, insurance coverage can prevent our debts from piling up on our family’s doorstep. If we are to pass away, we can give our family time to grieve without burdening them with our financial debts.

10. Secure your family’s lifestyle.

Some of us are breadwinners and some of us build our own family young. When we pass away, we take our income with us. Presence matters more, but when they are financially dependent on us, it is also vital to consider their future. The right insurance coverage can take care of expenses and maintain our family’s lifestyle in case we are no longer there to provide.

Regardless of whether we are young and healthy, or whether we have dependents or not, planning our future should be an utmost priority. “If one is responsible, and he loves his family, and he has dreams for his loved ones, then you know he is a candidate for insurance,” Frances Chua says.

Frances Chua is an IQA certified Sun Life Financial Advisor.

For more information and inquiries, visit the Sun Life website at https://www.sunlife.com.ph/en/

 

Spotlight is BusinessWorld’s sponsored section that allows advertisers to amplify their brand and connect with BusinessWorld’s audience by enabling them to publish their stories directly on the BusinessWorld Web site. For more information, send an email to online@bworldonline.com.

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Why buying life insurance is an act of love

While the COVID-19 pandemic has changed our lives in the most uncertain ways, there’s one thing Sun Life gold awardee Teresa Gerona is sure of: We must plan and prepare for the future.

She shares this timely nugget of wisdom, “By getting insured, you sleep well at night knowing that in case the inevitable happens, your loved ones will remember you as having loved them not just for a lifetime but beyond.”

She elaborates, “Definitely, in these times of uncertainty and grave threats to our lives due to the pandemic, we must be made aware of the urgency of having to protect one’s precious life. And this can only be addressed through Sun Life’s life insurance and health products/solutions.”

Leaving a legacy

For Teresa, you’re buying a life insurance not because you’re going to die but because your loved ones are going to live. Indeed, it’s not just a life insurance but a “love insurance,” because it’s a legacy you leave behind for your family or the people you love.

The longest gold qualifier, Teresa Gerona was recruited into Sun Life Philippines in 1985. “I was trained and mentored by the late Richard Young, my beloved unit manager, back then, when I was considering changing careers,” she fondly looks back.

“Eventually, there were trainings and courses introduced by Sun Life and others offered by the Life Underwriters Association of the Philippines, which I took.” It took almost two years before she was released by her former employer and went full time for Sun Life. Today, she’s been with Sun Life for over 36 years — and counting!

She declares in no uncertain terms, “I treasure and take pride in being with the first, oldest, and biggest life insurance company in the Philippines. And to those who might be hesitant and think that their insurance company may fold up, I can only say, ‘Why not get covered with Sun Life, which has been around for 126 years and is committed to serve and stay for the next centuries to come?'”

Financial and health security

Teresa has traveled around the world, either on company-sponsored trips or personal ones with her family, thanks to the generous bonuses she gets from Sun Life. “But other than the perks, I can’t emphasize enough the mission I’m committed to fulfill: to see every Filipino achieve lifetime financial and health security,” she firmly asserts. Sun Life takes care not only of its clients’ financial well-being but also of their physical health. Through its Go Well campaign, it helps clients to keep fit and healthy through workouts, trainings, and fitness classes.

While Teresa has stashed away some savings from her own life insurance policies, she’s enabled her clients to do the same thing “to meet their goals for themselves and their loved ones.”

She points out, “A person’s needs for life insurance vary, depending on the money life stage he’s in. But whatever stage that is, a financial adviser is there to help him map out his road to financial freedom and a healthier lifestyle.”

For Teresa, there’s nothing like having complete peace of mind by protecting your family’s financial/health future against the unforeseen events in life. So, shouldn’t we prepare the umbrella before it rains?

Teresa Gerona is an IQA certified Sun Life Financial Advisor.

For more information and inquiries, visit the Sun Life website at https://www.sunlife.com.ph/en/

 

Spotlight is BusinessWorld’s sponsored section that allows advertisers to amplify their brand and connect with BusinessWorld’s audience by enabling them to publish their stories directly on the BusinessWorld Web site. For more information, send an email to online@bworldonline.com.

Join us on Viber to get more updates from BusinessWorld: https://bit.ly/3hv6bLA.

Inflation slows to three-month low

Inflation eased to a three-month low in October amid a slower increase in food prices, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported on Friday.

Headline inflation settled at 4.6%, slower than the 4.9% median estimate of 21 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll last week.

“The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) stands ready to maintain its accommodative monetary stance for as long as necessary to support the economy’s sustained recovery to the extent that the inflation outlook would allow,” Governor Benjamin E. Diokno told reporters in a Viber group message.

The central bank would assess price developments before the Nov. 18 policy meeting of the Monetary Board, he added.

He also said the P1-billion fuel subsidy grant to vehicle operators should help support the transport sector and help prevent second-round effects amid rising oil prices.

The October figure was slower than 4.8% in September, though faster than 2.5% a year earlier. This brought the 10-month inflation to 4.5%, faster than the 4.4% forecast by the Philippine central bank for the year.

This was the third straight month inflation exceeded the 2-4% target of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas for the year. Inflation has topped the BSP target this year except in July.

Easing inflation in October was mainly due to the slower increase in the prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages, which rose by 5.3% compared with 6.2% in September. The price increases for meat, vegetables and fish eased last month.

Other items that caused inflation to slow were alcoholic beverages and tobacco (9.8% from 10.5%), education (0.7% from 0.9%) and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (3.7% from 3.9%).

On the other hand, prices of major commodities picked up including transport (7.1% from 5.2%); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (4.4% from 3.8%); furnishing, household equipment (2.5% from 2.4%); health (3.2% from 3.1%); and recreation (1% from 0.9%).

Core inflation, which excludes items with volatile price movements such as food and energy, quickened to 3.4% from 3.3% in September. Inflation for the bottom 30% income households also eased to 4.8% last month from 5% in September.

The government would continue to implement policies to ensure affordable food prices and support the transport sector, the National Economic and Development Authority said in a statement.

“Many countries, particularly net oil importers such as the Philippines, are feeling the impact of the rising world oil prices,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said. “We will continue monitoring the global developments so we can urgently respond to the impact of elevated oil prices on ordinary Filipinos, especially our public utility vehicle drivers.”

Despite the easing last month, inflation might remain high in the next months due to rising oil prices, Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said.

“Oil is expected to stay elevated in the coming months as supply will likely remain tight especially during winter,” he said in an e-mailed note. “Major oil-producing countries have kept their production plans despite the improvement in demand.”

ANZ Research Chief Economist Sanjay Mathur and economist Debalika Sarkar said they were “a little concerned with the sequential rise in inflation, which seems excessive at this stage of the business cycle”

But the slowing inflation was in line with the central bank’s guidance and accommodative stance as it stressed that rising prices were temporary, they said.

“A second month of deceleration in annual food and nonalcoholic beverage prices indicates that transitory influences are fading and over the next few months, push inflation lower into the official target range of 2-4% by end-2021,” according to the ANZ report. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

September exports, imports grow

PHILSTAR

By Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, Reporter

Philippine exports and imports rose in September amid a pickup in global economic activity, the local statistics agency said on Friday.

The value of exports increased by 6.3% year on year to $6.68 billion, better than 3.4% a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said in a report, citing preliminary data.

The value of imports also rose by a quarter to $10.67 billion from a year earlier, reversing a 9.9% decline a year ago.

The September export and import figures resulted in a trade deficit of $4 billion, wider than $2.27 billion a year earlier and the revised trade deficit of $3.51 billion in August, the PSA said.

This brought the nine-month trade gap to $29.19 billion worse than $17.95 billion a year earlier.

Nine-month exports rose by 18% year on year to $55.68 billion, while imports increased by 30.3% to $84.87 billion.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee expects exports and imports to rise by 10% and 12% this year.

Exports of manufactured goods rose by 4.3% to $5.43 billion and contributed 81.2% of total exports in September.

Exports of electronic products increased by 5.4% to $3.82 billion, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. Of the total, semiconductors contributed $2.85 billion.

Exports of mineral products also improved by a third to $707.14 million, while agro-based products fell by 0.5% to $418.37 million.

Exports of forest products rose by 19.7% to $34.59 million, while petroleum products fell by a third to $214,108.

Meanwhile, imports of raw materials and intermediate goods rose by 30.1% to $4.51 billion, while capital goods rose by 8.3% to $2.98 billion. Consumer goods increased by 5.3% to $1.68 billion, while mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials more than doubled to $1.43 billion.

The country’s September trade performance was within expectations, said Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc.

“Imports were expected at 21.1%, with the actual figure at 24.8%, and exports were estimated at 6.4%, with the actual number at 6.3%,” he said in an e-mail.

He also traced higher import numbers to further economic reopening and companies restocking on products before the holiday.

“The import headline figures seem to indicate that while the economy is still far from perfect shape, it has recovered substantially from previous quarters,” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in a Viber message.

September imports were bigger than any month in 2019, with capital spending sustaining its rise toward full recovery, he added.

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez traced the export performance to the reopening of global markets. “This is due to the reopening of the global markets, and the protocol we have adopted even during the enhanced community quarantine days when we allowed 100% operating capacity for export industries,” he said in a mobile phone message.

“The higher imports are expected as economic activities are bouncing back with the easing of quarantine restrictions,” the Trade chief said. “You will see that bulk of imports are raw materials, intermediate and capital goods, which are inputs to our industries.”

Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, ING Bank NV Manila Senior Economist, said imports increased from low levels last year.

“Imports have indeed rebounded as the economy gradually hums back to life,” he said in an e-mail. “However, a big reason for the surge in inbound shipments can be traced to international developments and to a lesser extent due to the rebound in the economy.”

Mr. Asuncion expects the country’s exports to grow by 17% this year, while imports would probably rise by 36%.

The widening trade gap could weigh the peso as the economy continues to recover, Mr. Neri said. “This is more so if the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decides to keep policy settings ultra-accommodative.”

In September, BSP kept the key policy rate at 2%. Overnight deposit and lending rates remained at 1.5% and 2.5%.

“The wider trade deficit, and more importantly, the movement of its components suggest that GDP momentum has improved but remains subdued and will need some time before a full recovery is made,” Mr. Mapa said.

Daily virus tally may fall to fewer than 1,000

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

Daily coronavirus infections in the Philippines could fall to fewer than 1,000 by the end of the month, according to researchers from the country’s premier university.

The granular lockdowns in the capital region had helped reverse a surge of the more contagious Delta coronavirus variant, OCTA Research Group fellow Fredegusto P. David told CNN Philippines on Friday.

“We previously made a projection that we would be at possibly less than 2,000 cases per day in the whole country by the end of November, but it’s just the first week of November and we are already seeing 1,500 to 1,700 cases,” he added.

Mr. David said he agrees with easing restrictions in Metro Manila to Alert Level 2 starting Nov. 5 before the holiday. “Having the Alert Level 2 now is timely because it’s almost halfway through the fourth quarter and this is the time for businesses to recover from losses during the year,” he added.

Presidential spokesman Herminio L. Roque, Jr. on Thursday said the capital region would be under Alert Level 2 until Nov. 21.

Under the lockdown level, businesses may operate indoors at 50% capacity. They will get an additional 10% capacity if they have a so-called safety seal from the government. For outdoor operations, they may operate at 70% capacity.

It will also allow minors to leave their homes. Local government units can impose “reasonable restrictions” on their movements as long as they are not stricter than higher alert levels.

Meanwhile, Mr. David tweeted that average cases in Metro Manila had fallen to 493, the lowest since Feb. 18.

The Department of Health (DOH) reported 2,376 coronavirus infections on Friday, bringing the total to 2.8 million.

The death toll rose to 44,085 after 260 more patients died, while recoveries increased by 2,109 to 2.7 million, it said in a bulletin.

There were 37,377 active cases, 69% of which were mild, 5.4% did not show symptoms, 8.2% were severe, 13.94% were moderate and 3.5% were critical.

The agency said 32 duplicates had been removed from the tally, 24 of which were reclassified as recoveries, while 219 recoveries were relisted as deaths. Four laboratories failed to submit data on Nov. 3.

Meanwhile, the alert level system first tested in Metro Manila would be expanded nationwide by Dec. 1, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario S. Vergeire told an online news briefing. The state started granular lockdowns in the capital region in mid-September to spur business activity.

Under the second alert level, conferences, entertainment venues, personal care establishments and fitness studios may operate at 50% indoor capacity and 70% outdoors as long as their workers have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. — Russell Louis C. Ku and Alyssa Nicole O. Tan

BSP raises $110B from short-term bills

BW FILE PHOTO

The Philippine central bank raised P110 billion from its auction of 28-day bills on Friday, with rates falling as the lockdown in Metro Manila was again relaxed.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) fully awarded the one-month bills that were oversubscribed, with tenders reaching P148.69 billion. Demand was also higher than the P130.25 billion in bids it got a week earlier.

The average rate of the debt paper fell by 0.98 basis point to 1.7591% from a week earlier. Accepted rates were 1.75% to 1.7799%.

The central bank uses short-term securities and its term deposit facility to mop up excess liquidity in the financial system and guide market rates.

The government’s pandemic task force on Thursday said Metro Manila would be under Alert Level 2 starting Nov. 5, allowing more businesses including the entertainment industry to boost their operating capacities.

The rates also tracked the easing trend in US yields as the Federal Reserve signaled that it would keep interest rates near zero, Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said in a Viber message.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 1.509%, the lowest since mid-October, Reuters reported on Thursday.

The Fed on Wednesday said it would start tapering asset purchases by the end of the month. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said they would keep interest rates to support the still weak US job market. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

Limited physical classes in college allowed

The Commission on Higher Education (CHEd) has allowed limited face to face classes in colleges for all degree programs in areas under Alert Level 2, the presidential palace said on Friday.

These would be subject to conditions set by the commission, presidential spokesman Herminio L. Roque, Jr. told a televised news.

Students and faculty participating in face-to-face classes must have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. Room capacity will be limited to 50% and facilities will be retrofitted to ensure social distancing. Local government units must also approve the setup.

Mr. Roque said the CHEd would propose guidelines to an inter-agency task force next week.

The announcement comes after the lockdown in Metro Manila was relaxed to Alert Level 2 starting Nov. 5. — Russell Louis C. Ku

More Filipinos open to vaccination

Six of 10 Filipinos are now willing to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, according to a poll by the Social Weather Stations (SWS).

SWS on Friday said 64% of Filipinos were willing to get vaccinated, 9 points higher than in in June and twice as high in May.

The pollster said 19% of Filipinos said they are uncertain, while 18% were unwilling to get vaccinated even of vaccines are free.

The rate in Metro Manila went up by 11 points to 87% from a quarter earlier.

Vaccine willingness went up by 11 points to 65% in Luzon, by 8 points to 56% in the Visayas and by 6 points to 54% in Mindanao, SWS said.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario S. Vergeire on Friday said raffles, food packs and other incentives had encouraged more people to accept vaccines.

About 60.4 million vaccine doses had been given out as of Nov. 2, with almost 28 million adult Filipinos having been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan

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