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Islamic State now present in all Afghan provinces, says UN envoy

WASHINGTON — The UN envoy to Afghanistan on Wednesday delivered a bleak assessment of the situation following the Taliban takeover, saying that an affiliate of the Islamic State group has grown and now appears present in nearly all 34 provinces.

UN Special Representative Deborah Lyons told the UN Security Council that the Taliban’s response to Islamic State-Khorasan Province’s (ISKP) expansion “appears to rely heavily on extrajudicial detentions and killings” of sus-pected ISKP fighters.

“This is an area deserving more attention from the international community,” she said.

Her comments came hours after the group — an ideological foe of the Taliban — claimed responsibility for two blasts that killed at least one person and wounded six others in a heavily Shiite Muslim neighborhood of Kabul.

The Taliban, she said, has been unable to stem ISKP’s growth.

“Once limited to a few provinces and the capital, ISKP now seems to be present in nearly all provinces, and increasingly active,” Ms. Lyons said, adding that the number of the group’s attacks have increased from 60 strikes in 2020 to 334 this year.

While the Taliban is making “genuine efforts to present itself as a government” since seizing Kabul in August after a 20-year war with the United States, they continue excluding representatives of other sectors of society and curtailing the rights of women and girls.

The UN mission regularly receives credible reports of house searches and the “extrajudicial killings” of former security personnel and officials, she said.

Ms. Lyons warned anew of a humanitarian catastrophe as winter looms due to a failing economy and drought.

She implored the international community to find ways to fund the salaries of healthcare workers, teachers and humanitarian workers, saying humanitarian aid is insufficient.

The economic collapse will fuel illicit drug, arms and human trafficking and unregulated money exchanges that “can only help facilitate terrorism,” Ms. Lyons said. “These pathologies will first affect Afghanistan,” she said. “Then they will infect the region.” — Reuters

Thousands of S.Koreans take grueling college exam in shadow of pandemic

SEOUL — More than half a million South Koreans sat for the annual national college entrance exams on Thursday, pandemic rules adding stress to the eight-hour event seen as life-defining in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

This year’s test-takers didn’t face the delays and uncertainties of the first pandemic-era exams last year, but COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) measures have left their mark on the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) widely considered as indispensable for landing one of a limited number of jobs in a competitive society.

“I couldn’t go to private institutes, study rooms, nor school properly due to coronavirus,” said 17-year-old Ahn Jeong-min. “Still, I’m vaccinated, and everyone will wear face masks and use partitions during the exam, so I think I can take the exam well, feeling comfortable rather than much concern.”

More than 509,000 high school seniors, graduates and others have signed up to take the single-day, five-session exam held at 1,251 test sites nationwide, according to the education ministry.

At least 173 people who tested positive for the coronavirus or otherwise required isolation will take the test at hospitals or separate exam centers, the ministry said.

Thursday morning saw traditional society-wide efforts to help the test-takers, with the country’s financial markets opening an hour later than usual to ease traffic.

Commercial air traffic was scheduled to be suspended during a key period in the afternoon, warplanes from the South Korean and US militaries will be grounded, and live-fire exercises shut down throughout the day, officials said.

“We’re doing our part to keep distractions down so you can keep your scores up!” tweeted US Forces-Korea, which includes about 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea.

Pandemic measures meant other, louder traditions to wish the test-takers well were missing.

Outside schools in Seoul, there was none of the customary cheering by high school juniors, praying parents, or schoolmates who typically beat drums and hand out sweets to participants.

Lee Eu-gene, a mother who said she had an older child take the test last year, said her son sitting for the exam this year seemed to be better off because schools had more in-person learning.

“He studied in this situation, so it’s in the mother’s heart that I hope he will get good results and happily expand his future,” she said. — Reuters

Japan looks to accept more foreigners in key policy shift

TOKYO — In a major shift for a country long closed to immigrants, Japan is looking to allow foreigners in certain blue-collar jobs to stay indefinitely starting as early as the 2022 fiscal year, a justice ministry official said on Thursday.

Under a law that took effect in 2019, a category of “specified skilled workers” in 14 sectors such as farming, nursing care and sanitation have been granted visas but stays have been limited to five years and without family members for workers in all but the construction and shipbuilding sectors.

Companies had cited those restrictions among reasons they were hesitant to hire such help, and the government had been looking to ease those restrictions in the other fields.

If the revision takes effect, such workers — many from Vietnam and China — would be allowed to renew their visas indefinitely and bring their families with them.

Top government spokesman Hirokazu Matsuno stressed, however, that any such change would not mean automatic permanent residency, which would require a separate application process.

Immigration has long been taboo in Japan as many prize ethnic homogeneity, but pressure has mounted to open up its borders due to an acute labor shortage given its dwindling and ageing population.

“As the shrinking population becomes a more serious problem and if Japan wants to be seen as a good option for overseas workers, it needs to communicate that it has the proper structure in place to welcome them,” Toshihiro Menju, managing director of think tank Japan Center for International Exchange, told Reuters.

The 2019 law was meant to attract some 345,000 “specified skilled workers” over five years, but the intake has hovered at around 3,000 per month before the COVID-19 pandemic sealed the borders, according to government data.

As of late 2020, Japan housed 1.72 million foreign workers, out of a total population of 125.8 million and just 2.5% of its working population. — Reuters

More COVID-19 curbs in Melbourne relaxed

SYDNEY — Melbourne’s pubs and cafes can have unlimited patrons from Thursday night, while stadiums can return to full capacity as authorities lifted nearly all remaining COVID-19 restrictions for vaccinated residents in Australia’s second-largest city.

Victoria, the state that is home to Melbourne, has been gradually easing curbs when dual-dose inoculations reached 70%, 80% and 90%, with the latest relaxations part of a shift in strategy towards living with the coronavirus. The full vaccination level for the eligible population is expected to reach 90% over the weekend.

“Your life will be back to normal, you will be able to enjoy all the things that you have yearned for and missed,” State Premier Daniel Andrews said during a media conference.

Under more relaxed rules, people can hit the dance floor and there will be no limits on home gatherings. But masks will remain mandatory in health facilities, public transport and retail stores.

Eased restrictions mean major summer sports events like the Boxing Day cricket test match and the Australian Open tennis will be able to welcome capacity crowds.

Australia had largely stamped out infections for most of this year until an outbreak of the Delta variant in late June spread rapidly across Sydney and Melbourne, its largest cities, and the national capital of Canberra, forcing months-long lockdowns. They have since come out of lockdowns racing through their inoculations.

Even with the Delta wave, Australia has recorded about 194,000 cases and 1,922 deaths, far lower than many comparable countries

New South Wales, which includes Sydney, logged 262 cases on Thursday and Victoria 1,007 new infections, while the Australian Capital Territory reported 25. Fifteen deaths were registered.

The Northern Territory is battling to contain a fresh outbreak as authorities look to accelerate vaccinations to prevent the spread of the virus in remote communities. Other states and territories are COVID-free. — Reuters

Managing the purse

account

Our public finance is quite problematic. While the Department of Finance (DoF) is pretty hard at work raising money for the national budget through taxes and better tax administration, it is not always enough. Higher public spending is crucial in fighting the pandemic and further strengthening the momentum of business activities. The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) borrows from the capital markets here and abroad to finance the budget deficit. 

This is the primary reason why in the past we would always insist that higher credit ratings are essential. Since we started to receive credit upgrades in 2012, the credit spreads on sovereign borrowings and private corporate debt have tightened. With stronger confidence in our macroeconomic fundamentals, foreign investments started to climb. However, our weak pandemic response reversed the country’s 20-year impressive advance by the downgrade of the country’s outlook from stable to negative. 

If the House of Representatives’ initiative pushes through to scrap the excise taxes on diesel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), reduce them on low-octane gasoline and retain them on high-octane gasoline, the National Government (NG) estimates its loss at some P38 billion in six months. Last month, though, the DoF’s computation for one full year of tax suspension stood at P147 billion in excise tax and value-added tax, or around 8% of the expected budget deficit of P1.86 trillion this year. 

Without a compensatory revenue measure, this much will have to be covered by borrowings. Budget realignment might be difficult to pursue because obviously the other elements in the budget must have already been earmarked. 

This must be one of the reasons why the NG and Congress are scrounging for additional revenues. For instance, Congress proposes through House Bill 7425 to impose a value-added tax on digital transactions by amending relevant portions of the National Internal Revenue Code. In the same spirit, the DoF is also sounding the call for proper regulation and taxation of fintech companies. Working with both the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Securities and Exchange Commission, DoF is also collaborating with the Department of Trade and Industry “which has done a lot of groundwork on fintech.” Whether this new proposal is already covered by the House bill is something that should be threshed out by both Malacañang and Congress to avoid overlaps and more market worries. 

While both measures could raise potential revenues, the NG should balance them with their potential impact on digital transactions which were found to be extremely helpful during the lockdown. Taxation of digital transactions and fintech companies is now the subject of many public debates in several member countries of the International Monetary Fund. Cross-border transactions involving at least one digital firm which may not be necessarily headquartered in Manila makes this fiscal measure more complex than it appears. 

These initiatives may indeed yield some dividends but only in the future, and definitely not this year. 

This must be the reason why BTr decided to raise P114 billion from the capital market the other day, one among many, through the five-year-and-a-half retail treasury bonds (RTBs). In February, the NG also sold P463.3 billion in three-year maturity. There were previous external borrowings by NG in euro and Samurai bonds. All in, planned borrowings could easily amount to P3 trillion to cover an expected P1.9 trillion deficit or around 9.3% of GDP. For the first eight months of 2021 alone, the NG has borrowed P1.8 trillion, P1.5 trillion from domestic sources and P300 billion from external sources. 

We could just imagine the consequent debt servicing requirements in the succeeding years to cover both principal and interest, all because of some populist inclinations prevailing in the House today. 

But public finance could also be messed up when the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) is less than fastidious in screening each and every proposed line item of public spending. That is the job of the budget department: to prepare the budget and to manage it well. 

A large part of our fiscal woes today is precisely due to the failure of the DBM to keep the gates. The devil in the budget details appears to have been ignored. For instance, there should be some space for scrutinizing each and every proposed Build, Build, Build infra project, both big and small, but definitely some are critical and more urgent than others. The pandemic budget is another. While it would be good for transparency for the DBM to disclose how much was budgeted for vaccines and protective gear, it is also important to keep a close watch on the large part of the budget lodged with the Procurement Services (PS) of the DBM itself. This is the origin of the Pharmally scandal. This is the origin of the many unexplained audit findings of different government departments engaged especially in common-use big-ticket items. In some cases, extra-ordinary items have been reclassified as common-use and therefore may be procured by PS itself. 

In fact, in the recent Senate hearing on the budget of the Department of National Defense (DND), another smoking gun was found. The DND had parked P10 billion worth of funds with the PS-DBM and the Philippine International Trading Corp. (PITC) for the procurement of “needed supplies and equipment.” Senate Minority Leader Frank Drilon and his colleagues questioned the Armed Forces’ decision to allow these two agencies to do the procurement for them “when its personnel have better expertise in the procurement of military supplies.” 

Earlier, Senator Ping Lacson called to task the DND about its “anomalous” practice of parking huge funds for various procurements with the PITC but seeing these ending up unspent and undelivered. In so many words, it is almost criminal to have those funds sitting idly outside the DND while the NG is racking its brain squeezing every peso from all line items and borrowing heavily to manage the pandemic and ensure the resumption of business activities. The Commission on Audit, according to Senator Lacson, has already flagged the unliquidated cumulative amount of P8.523 billion out of P15.9 billion lodged with the PITC in the last 13 years. 

What is unconscionable is that in 2019 and 2020, the PITC did not deliver anything to the military, while charging 4% for service fees. We don’t need rocket science to figure out that the military was better off doing the procurement itself. And certainly, we don’t need rocket science to determine why this practice persists to this day. 

Another potential leakage in the budget is the proposed funding of the anti-insurgency task force amounting to P24 billion in 2022, coinciding with the national election. This amount would have granted funds to identified insurgency-cleared barangays “to implement community-driven socio-economic development projects.” Insurgency-free barangays would have been entitled to P20 million each for such projects as farm-to-market roads, school buildings, water and sanitation systems, reforestation, and health stations. The DBM should ensure that these are not duplicative of both national and provincial spending for similar projects, and would not be diverted to election-related spending. 

The Senate therefore must have a compelling reason for deciding to slash the original budget of P24 billion to only P4 billion. That is a big savings that could instead fund health and other social needs of the population, or as much in less borrowings by the BTr. 

If we put these fiscal dynamics together, we would agree with such observation that fiscal consolidation in the Philippines “is going nowhere.” Public revenues are effectively waived in the spirit of populism, while leakages persist under a culture of corruption and bad governance. One unavoidable outcome is greater reliance on borrowing until debt sustainability metrics are breached. We hope we are wrong, but when that happens, pronouncements about those concrete signs of economic recovery might be premature, or aspirational at best.

Reimagining work culture management amidst recovery

PIXABAY

By Bronte H. Lacsamana

With global economic recovery well underway and markets getting busier in the search for a path to growth, revelations born from the pandemic crisis have become guiding principles for reimagining and reassessing business operations.

This was one of the takeaways put forward by Raoul R. Teh, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Philippines’ managing director and chief executive officer, on the second day of the Information Technology and Business Process Association of the Philippines’ (IBPAP) 2021 International Innovation Summit in November.

“We will be remiss if we do not use the lessons learned from this pandemic to reimagine and reassess how organizations can operate better in the future,” he said in an opening speech. “The hybrid work genie has escaped from the bottle, so what do we do now?”

Citing a report from research firm Everest Group that IBPAP chairman Louie Benedict C. Hernandez presented the day before, Mr. Teh highlighted the potential of 8% to 13% revenue growth in the IT-business process management (IT-BPM) sector this year.

The report foreshadowed work culture management requiring getting ahead of potential problems as well: “It’s about availability of talent and skills, about longer cycle time for logistics, equipment, and space, figuring out what activities are in the office versus what’s remote, and how government policy shapes all of those plans.”

Based on previous panel discussions that included Philippine industry leaders from Accenture, UnionBank, Cisco, Microsoft, and Google, there can be no one solution to transforming work culture, said Mr. Teh.

“This won’t be ‘one-size-fits-all’,” he explained. “It will be up to each of us to determine what the future of work looks like based on what best serves our clients, the larger organization, and our people.”

SOCIAL INCLUSION

Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) 2021 Global Value Chain Development Report found the large role that IT-BPM services have played in the economic development of countries like India and the Philippines.

“It’s led to growth in employment, in national and individual income levels, and also social inclusion, with more women coming into the workforce,” Mr. Teh shared.

Mohammad Naciri, the regional director of the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women) for Asia Pacific, zeroed in on this inclusion, pointing out that digital solutions can address disparities.

The possibility of working remotely, for instance, was limited to a somewhat small segment that tended to not include women. Now, though women had experienced great job loss, the possibilities have opened up.

“The expansion of the applicant pool is attributed to the greater number of people who can provide services,” explained Mr. Naciri. “These are women who are otherwise unable to commit regular time to the office due to socio-culturally disproportionate gender norms.”

Citing a Deloitte study, he added that firms in the top tier of diversity and inclusion are 21% more likely to be innovation leaders in their market — an important distinction especially in a fast-changing, transformative industry like IT-BPM.

“Simply put, ensuring that women and girls can take advantage of developing technologies makes good business sense,” he concluded.

‘Risk’ is a scary word. ‘Uncertainty’ is terrifying.

Economic forecasting, a fool’s game in the best of times, has become increasingly useless.   

A global pandemic, supply chain disruptions and extreme weather events have thrown conventional models into disarray. That’s led commentators to warn of growing “risks” to the global economy. 

That’s wrong. What the world is confronting can’t really be reduced to the idea of risk. The actual problem is even more vexing: widespread, growing uncertainty. 

This distinction between risk and uncertainty may seem purely semantic. It’s not, as the idiosyncratic economist Frank Knight recognized a century ago when he published his classic meditation on the matter. His thoughts are worth revisiting today. 

Knight was born in Illinois in 1885, one of nine children in a deeply religious family. He had few of the markings of a future academic, save for intense intelligence. He eventually broke from his family’s faith, a move that some biographers have speculated primed him to challenge other people’s cherished beliefs, especially economic orthodoxies. 

He never finished high school, but managed to get to college and pursue what one biographer called a “motley education,” dabbling in chemistry, German, and philosophy before graduating from the University of Tennessee. He then pursued a doctorate in economics at Cornell University. It was there that he wrote and revised his dissertation under the shadow of two radical ruptures: World War I and the 1918 flu pandemic, both of which may have contributed to his thinking about risk and uncertainty. 

He published his dissertation in 1921 as “Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit,” taught at the University of Iowa for a few years, then joined the faculty of the University of Chicago, where he held sway for several decades. Always an iconoclast, he feuded with colleagues, reserving special contempt for economists who favored quantitative techniques and empirical models. Reading his classic work, it’s easy to understand why. 

Knight’s book is unusual for many reasons, not least the fact that it offers one of the clearest definitions of the conditions necessary for that nirvana of general equilibrium that economists call “perfect competition” — and then shows how that world will never exist because of the powerful undertow of what he called “uncertainty.” 

For most people, risk and uncertainty are more or less synonymous: things that are risky are uncertain and vice versa. Knight disagreed. In an exploration of these concepts that bordered on the metaphysical, Knight asked his readers to consider the fact that human beings — and entrepreneurs in particular — are necessarily obsessed with what will happen in the future. But Knight argued that future events fell into two distinct categories. 

The first was what Knight dubbed risk: events that one could not know would happen — much less precisely when they would happen — but to which a certain probability could be assigned. As an example, he cited another economist who had described the making of champagne, which invariably resulted in a certain number of bottles bursting from an excess of carbonation. But the loss rate was consistent and predictable. As a consequence, wrote Knight, “the loss becomes a fixed cost in the industry and is passed on to the consumer.” 

Somewhat less predictable, but still capable of control, were events that one could not predict on a case-by-case basis (a factory burning down, for example) but could be quantified as a definite risk when pooled with others drawn from the same type or category. This, explained Knight, was the insight that lay at the foundation of the insurance industry. No individual calamity could ever be foreseen, but a certain probability within a larger pool could. 

“It is evident,” wrote Knight, “that a great many hazards can be reduced to a fair degree of certainty by statistical grouping.” But he warned that “an equally important category cannot.”  

This was the dreaded world of uncertainty: a place where bad things might happen, but one had no ability to predict the likelihood. These could not be wrestled to the ground with modeling, statistical analysis, or anything else in the toolkit of economics. 

Knight thus posited a distinction between a measurable uncertainty (what he called risk) and unmeasurable uncertainty (which he called true uncertainty). He conceded that it might be possible to accumulate sufficient data to turn uncertainties into risk, though he noted, “The use of resources in reducing uncertainty is an operation attended with the greatest uncertainty of all.” 

Many economists have quibbled with Knight’s analysis, with some pointing out that the distinctions between risk and uncertainty are rarely so clear. But his arguments continue to be influential and relevant, perhaps especially so now. Just as the reputation of the heterodox economist Hyman Minsky revived in the shadow of the 2008 financial crisis, Knight’s writings have a direct relevance to the present moment of radical uncertainty. 

The unknowns that the world now faces — the radical disruptions of climate change, an ever-evolving deadly virus and the dissolution of carefully constructed supply chains — means that economic forecasts and predictions, which are of little use generally, should be ignored altogether. 

But as Knight would tell you, the fact that nobody knows what will happen to the global economy shouldn’t be cause for despair. In fact, he argued that uncertainty is the wellspring of profit. Entrepreneurs don’t make money by assuming risks that can be quantified; they make money by bearing the cost of true uncertainty. 

That means this moment of extreme uncertainty is a business opportunity of astonishing proportions. Of that, Frank Knight would have been certain. 

Systems failure

malacanang failure final

Sara Duterte is running for Vice-President in partnership with Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., who has had his eye on the Presidency for decades. She substituted for the candidate of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s Lakas-CMD for that post on Nov. 13. The party Marcos Junior is running under at the same time said it will ally with Lakas-CMD to support a Marcos-Sara Duterte team.

Both developments followed weeks of confusion over who the Arroyo-Marcos Axis would field for President and Vice-President; whether Christopher “Bong” Go will still be the PDP-Laban standard bearer; and Presi-dent Rodrigo Duterte’s cohorts’ triggering speculations over the possibility that while he had (again) announced his retirement from politics, he could still run for Vice-President or senator (whichever is convenient and fits his agenda). Mr. Duterte will indeed run in 2022 but for senator, not for VP.

This country’s power-mad politicians mock this country’s electoral process. The law allowing candidate substitutions is also one of the many anomalies that make a mess of it. And it is also another indicator of the rapid descent into systems failure of the Philippine State. That decline has visibly worsened during the rule of the Duterte clique — and it is happening not only during the country’s worst public health emergency in over a century, but also during its worst crisis in governance since the Marcos kleptocracy.

A plurality of voters elected to national office in 2016 what had hitherto been a limited provincial tyranny. Once in Malacañang, it brought with it not only the unrestrained use of State violence against the poor and govern-ment critics and dissenters, but also an army of ineffectual officials.

Past administrations have hardly been exemplars of competence, vision, or dedication to public interest. But the Duterte regime’s record of mismanagement has made it abundantly clear that it is exceptional in the gross in-capacity of its officials to do their jobs — and, in some cases, to even understand what their tasks and responsibilities are.

Unlike his hero, model and mentor Ferdinand Marcos, Mr. Duterte has never considered the fitness for a particular office of the officials he names. Martial law did not prevent Marcos Senior from recognizing the competent and appointing them to key government agencies. But Mr. Duterte did Marcos’ martial rule one better by naming most of his leading officials on the basis of either their police and military backgrounds, or their unflinching de-votion to him and his family.

Because of the sheer number of retired military and police personnel in the regime, his is the most militarized since the country regained its independence in 1946. But he has also kept in their posts officials who, for some reason, have earned and kept his confidence despite the scandals that hound them, or their demonstrated incapacity to effectively respond to the problems raised by the pandemic.

The country’s government institutions, among them those agencies most crucial to the provision of social services such as health, education, and social welfare, have only erratically provided the citizenry the medical care, social amelioration, and access to education that it needs for the country to progress or to just stay in place. But they and other government agencies have been failing even before Mr. Duterte’s troubled watch.

Every year the country has faced shortages in the number of doctors, nurses, and the other medical personnel it needs, as droves of graduates of medical and nursing schools leave for abroad in search of living wages. During the pandemic the regime could have raised salaries and allowances to keep medical workers home but did not — hence the shortage of doctors and nurses in the severely strained healthcare system.

The deterioration of education has also been ongoing, because of the corruption that, among others, consists of the approval for use in the country’s primary and secondary education levels of error-filled textbooks, and the shortfall in teachers and classrooms. At the tertiary level, some Congressmen have added to the lengthening list of State universities and colleges institutions of dubious credentials.

The economy has always been vulnerable to the vagaries of the export and import markets, and to fluctuations in the international rate of currency exchange — all of which make the employment of the millions in the coun-try’s huge labor reserves insecure and uncertain. The Philippines’ pre-industrial enterprises and the workers’ community are dependent on each other, with the former’s reliance on the continued availability of labor, and workers’ being dependent on the continued operations of the enterprises that employ them. As a huge number of small- and medium-sized enterprises went bankrupt or were forced to shut down, more than four million workers in addition to the usual legions of unemployed and underemployed lost their means of livelihood.

The number of COVID-19 infections has meanwhile risen to nearly three million, and made the full reopening of the economy problematic, with all its consequences on the deepening poverty and hunger of the poorest sec-tors of the population.

The pandemic has aggravated the long simmering crises of Philippine society, and despite regime efforts to make it appear that everything is approaching normalcy, the perennial problems in public health, education, and the economy have worsened. A more competent and less corrupt dispensation could have prevented or at least mitigated the extent of the present crisis. It would have acted quickly enough to shut down the country’s borders in 2020 and, as vaccines were developed in a number of countries, to arrange for their purchase from whatever source.

The present regime instead hemmed and hawed before it did either, and in the process lost months of precious response time. And even when visitors from China were supposedly barred from travel to the Philippines, a racket at the Bureau of Immigration and preferential treatment enabled a number to nevertheless enter the country, while the government’s preference for China-sourced vaccines prevented early on their purchase from other countries.

The resulting crisis in health thus led to the decline of the already frail economy, while it compelled the conduct of education via distance learning — which, among other problems, is hampered by limited citizen ca-pacity to access electronic devices and the country’s notoriously erratic and slow-as-molasses wi-fi connectivity.

While all this was going on and compromising the country’s future, the use of lawless State violence even against violators of health protocols never abated. Neither did the extrajudicial killings, the rampant human rights vi-olations, and the systematic erosion of the Republican principle of checks and balances.

The regime never crafted a national plan to address the pandemic, and left it to LGUs to do what they thought could contain the contagion in their jurisdictions. A futile debate over whether the wearing of face shields should still be mandatory is continuing. The holding of face-to-face classes is being pilot-tested. Restrictions in international and domestic tourism are being lifted, cinemas being reopened, and public vehicle occupancy in-creased to almost 100% despite the understandable reservations of the medical community. Chaos rather than order rules Philippine society.

It should be more than evident by now that only the election of a halfway decent, competent, and honest alternative to the present regime can at least begin the process of halting the country’s descent into failed State sta-tus. But that can happen only if the mass of the electorate has learned enough from the experience of the last six years to elect the officials the country so desperately and so urgently needs.

 

LUIS V. TEODORO is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).
www.luisteodoro.com

Filipina e-commerce pioneer to pay it forward as a mentor for small businesses

By Patricia Mirasol

As Kimstore, the Philippines’s first online gadget store, celebrates its 15th anniversary, founder Kim Y. Lato wishes her next act to be as a mentor of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) who need support in the digital space.

“My store’s anniversary is one of my top three business milestones,” said Ms. Lato at a Nov. 18 event celebrating the milestone. “I could finally say that I found my ikigai, which is empowering women and teaching them how to do business in e-commerce.”

Ikigai is a Japanese concept that refers to that which gives your life worth, meaning, or purpose.

“We are piloting an e-commerce academy with [Ms. Lato],” said Francisco “Jay” M. Bernardo III, chair and president of Bayan Academy, which offers entrepreneurship, management, and education training programs as a social development organization.

“She is going to be part of the She Means Business program we’ll be running with Facebook,” he told the event audience. “We at Bayan Academy found that what was needed by MSMEs is guidance on how to be successful in the digital economy.”

Ms. Lato started her business on Nov. 19, 2006, when she was a marketing undergraduate at De La Salle University. Back then, selling involved utilizing the now-defunct social media platform Multiply, as well as meeting up with buyers at the McDonald’s branch adjacent to the university to exchange orders for cash.

Her initial capital was from ampaos, which are cash-filled red envelopes that are given by godparents during special occasions.

“I never imagined this would last 15 years,” she said.

To differentiate itself from the competition, Kimstore makes it a point to focus on customer service and be an early technology adopter. Advancements in CRM (customer relationship management) and NPI (new product introduction), for example, are quickly adopted to improve how the store addresses customer needs.

“I attend forums to make sure I’m an adopter of new technologies,” Ms. Lato said. “You always have to be 10 steps ahead.”

Kimstore moreover prioritizes making its customer service a human one.

“People crave the human touch,” added Ms. Lato.

Living-in before marriage is a bad idea

couple

I once came across an online chat group where one of the members asked for advice on how to best prepare for marriage. The overwhelmingly popular suggestion from the youngish crowd: live together first.

Now, with thinking like that, no wonder more and more marriages are breaking up and more and more children are born or growing up outside wedlock.

Follow the science.

Stanford’s Michael J. Rosenfeld and Katharina Roesler (“Cohabitation Experience and Cohabitation’s Association with Marital Dissolution,” 2018) reaffirms that premarital cohabitation is still a risk factor for divorce: “The results show that in the first year of marriages, couples who cohabited before marriage have a lower marital dissolution rate than couples who did not cohabit before marriage, a difference that may be due to the practical experience of cohabitation, as couples who have cohabited learned to adapt to each other. We find that the association between marital dissolution and premarital cohabitation has not changed over time or across marriage cohorts. The benefits of cohabitation experience in the first year of marriage has misled scholars into thinking that the most recent marriage cohorts will not experience heightened marital dissolution due to pre-marital cohabitation.”

In other words, although couples that lived together before marrying may have a lower divorce rate in their first year of marriage, nevertheless, the chances of them divorcing go exponentially higher after five years and this bol-sters earlier research linking premarital cohabitation to increased divorce (e.g., see the 1988 study by Bennett, Blanc, & Bloom).

Ergo: premarital cohabitation is still a decisive risk factor substantially increasing the chances of a marriage breaking up.

Doubtless, there are experts that attempt to defend cohabitation before marriage (e.g., the critique by Manning, Smock, and Kuperberg) but in the end such do not hold water when ranged against decade af-ter decade of studies showing the adverse effect of “live-in” arrangements to marriages.

Rosenfeld and Roesler adequately defend their work against Manning, Smock, and Kuperberg, and “stand by their conclusion that the average increased risk for divorce associated with premarital cohabitation is mostly unchanged over the last 40 years” (“Is Cohabitation Still Linked to Greater Odds of Divorce?,” Institute for Family Studies, 2021).

In fact, to those arguing that for the poor cohabitation might be a better alternative to marriage, a 2011 Pew Research Analysis showed the opposite — cohabitation actually works against them: “less-educated adults are less likely to realize the economic benefits associated with cohabitation… a cohabiter without a college degree typically is worse off than a comparably educated married adult and no better off economically than an adult without an opposite-sex partner.”

And more crucially, Pew found that “a voluminous body of social science research shows that marriage is associated with a variety of benefits for adults. In the words of one researcher: ‘For well over a century, researchers have known that married people are generally better off than their unmarried counterparts’ (Nock, 2005)” (“Living Together: The Economics of Cohabitation,” Pew Research Center, 2011).

The foregoing has to be read closely with numerous studies linking premarital sex to eventual breakup of marriages. In other words, despite the supposed rise of the “hook-up culture” and media’s normalization of premari-tal sex, recent data still show that marriages where the bride is a virgin leads to more stable marriages and far lesser chances of divorce or marital breakup. Conversely, the more sexual partners a woman has had before mar-riage sees greater risk of marital deterioration (see “Counterintuitive Trends in the Link Between Premarital Sex and Marital Stability,” 2016, and “Does Sexual History Affect Marital Happiness?,” 2018, Institute for Family Stud-ies).

What’s disconcerting for the Philippines is that despite the clear negative effect of cohabitation, more and more young Filipinos are deciding to do it anyway: “Data from the Philippine National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) show that the proportion of Filipino women of age 15 to 49 who are legally married dropped from 54% in 1993 to 42% in 2017, while the corresponding proportions who are living together more than tripled from 5% to 18%,” while “the share of Filipinos who agreed that ‘it is all right for a couple to live together without intending to get married’ increased from 18% in 1994 to 35% in 2012” (“Do Filipinos still say ‘I do’? The rise of non-marriage and cohabitation in the Philip-pines,” Jeofrey Abalos, 2021).

So, if cohabitation and premarital sex provide greater risk for marriage instability and the breakup of marriages, this then leads us to the fully documented negative consequences for children of broken marriages or single parenthood (see, for example, “Divorce and its damaging effect on children. And on society,” 2017, and “Divorce is a deadly killer!,” 2018, BusinessWorld).

Bottomline: people can certainly give far better advice to young couples (e.g., better courtships, emphasis on family stability and values compatibility) than blithely telling them to “live together first.”

 

JEMY GATDULA is a senior fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence
https://www.facebook.com/jigatdula
Twitter @jemygatdula

Meralco energizes COVID-19 treatment and quarantine facility in Quezon City

In its continuing support to the Government and Private Sector’s fight against COVID-19, Meralco installed a new primary metering facility connecting the privately-owned Quirino Memorial Medical Center to the utility’s distribution line. This project also involved the retirement of three (3) 75-kVA Distribution Transformers which were earlier used as a temporary facility for the said hospital.

This COVID-19 treatment and quarantine facility, located along Katipunan Street, Barangay Blue Ridge A., Quezon City, is one of the many vital COVID-19 facilities in the Meralco franchise area that are given the highest priority in terms of providing safe, adequate, and reliable supply of electricity, in line with the company’s thrust to assist the government during the pandemic. To date, more than 140 vital COVID-19 facilities have already been energized by Meralco which include government offices, hospitals, testing laboratories, quarantine and vaccination centers, and vaccine storage facilities.

 


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Strengthening partnerships and capacities is key in the journey to peace

By Patricia Mirasol

Strengthening partnerships and capacities is key in the non-linear journey to peace, according to Steve Muncy, an American humanitarian worker and this year’s awardee of the Ramon Magsaysay Award Foundation, which celebrates greatness of spirit and transformative leadership in Asia through its annual awards.

“The journey from conflict to development and peace is seldom linear,” he said at a Nov. 17 virtual lecture, as he noted the importance of local stakeholders. “It will succeed if those who live in the area that are adversely affected… also play active roles [in it.]”

Mr. Muncy, who is also the Executive Director of humanitarian organization Community and Family Services International (CFSI), said his takeaway from partnership discussions can be summarized in three words: We. Listen. Learn.

“The next nexus calls us to listen, and listen well, to those affected. It’s essential for trust-building.”

CSFI’s Philippine projects focus on people affected by natural disaster and armed conflict in Visayas and Mindanao, such as the 2017 Marawi siege.

PEACE AGREEMENTS

Ariel “Ayi” C. Hernandez, whose Balay Mindanaw Foundation Inc. (BMFI) has been involved in Mindanao peace-building and development work for 15 years, acknowledged the complexity of implementing peace agreements.

“Establishing trust with MILF leaders is not easy,” BMFI’s corporate treasurer said at the Nov. 17 event. “You have to respect boundaries, perspectives, mechanisms. Steve’s group was able to handle this very well.”

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is the largest militant organization in the country and seeks autonomy for Filipino Muslims.

A peace agreement is only a piece of paper if it can’t be implemented, added Amina Rasul-Bernardo, former chair of the Ramon Magsaysay Award Foundation and president of the Philippine Center for Islam and Democracy (PCID), which was founded on the idea that addressing the problems of Muslim Mindanao “should include and occur within the context of democracy.”

“This can only be implemented if you have partners like CSFI and Balay Mindanaw… [and if you have] trust given by the national government and the local community,” she told the audience of the virtual lecture. “In this case, it’s the MILF. With trust comes credibility, and then you can have implementation of that important piece of paper.”

LONG-TERM INTERVENTIONS

Development, according to Nobel prize-winning economist Amartya Sen, must be judged by its impact on people – not only by changes in their income, but by the more general terms of their choices, capabilities, and freedoms.

Given its long-term goal of lasting change, development work tends to transcend changes of administration.

“The environment may become complicated and partners may change, but the needs remain the same,” Mr. Muncy said. “The interventions need to continue over a long period of time.”

The determining factor are partnerships that are continually strengthened, added Mr. Hernandez, noting that Mr. Muncy might be already thinking of second-liners – individuals who are next in line to sustain CSFI’s passion and dream.

“As they say, the dream will outlive the dreamer,” he said.