Facebook Instagram Linkedin Twitter Youtube
Home Blog Page 5340

Lessons in Data-Driven Development (3D)

MARKUS SPISKE-UNSPLASH

In the middle of the pandemic, Action for Economic Reforms (AER) launched its Data-Driven Development (3D) Program. The goal: to promote a culture conducive to data and evidence and make them the foundation for responsive local governance and active citizen participation. In early 2021, we set out to implement our 3D projects in 14 local government units, 11 state universities and colleges, as well as over 20 civil society organizations around the Philippines.

The 3D program has two components, namely Coalescing Organizations towards Locally Led Actions to Boost Development (COLLABDev) and Data Driven Development in the Philippines (PH3D). COLLABDev and PH3D receive generous support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the European Union (EU), respectively.

Nearing the end of both projects, we ask: How have we fared and what have we learned so far? Here, we count down to what we have learned, our “54321”: the 5 lessons, 4 3D 2wards 1 goal.

First, we started the project thinking that we would assist our partners in simply analyzing available data, instead of collecting data. As the projects progressed, we were faced with several challenges:

• Some local government units (LGUs) did not have sufficient data to be used for policymaking.

• Although LGUs were required by government agencies to collect data on their behalf, they could not access such data.

• There was a lack of trust with some existing datasets due to data quality issues. Reliable and timely data, as evidenced in the pandemic, were hard to come by.

Addressing these issues required a pivot: focusing instead on more “basic” processes of data collection. We learned that local communities’ data needs were more basic than previously thought — in most cases, the gap is in having high quality data that can be used for policy.

Second, we realized that while technological infrastructure (e.g., hardware and software) is lacking in many partner sites, it is generally easier to address these concerns: through provision of laptops/tablets, software for data processing, online meetings, and more.

While infrastructure is necessary, ultimately, it is the culture of data appreciation that is critical in promoting 3D. The difficulty is that culture is built, not bought, and it requires having data champions from the top and bottom (what we call the “bibingka”1 method of championing 3D). Instilling the 3D culture means investing resources: dedicating, not just designating, both human and financial resources into data programs.

Institutionalization is key, and this entails actual policies that encourage data collection, sharing and analysis for policymaking. To this end, we have been able to share new technologies for digital data collection to inculcate a culture of collecting high quality data and impart policy templates for implementing regular data processes in the LGUs. This is just the start, but LGUs’ positive response towards digitization is promising.

Third, as data champions, we initially thought that it would also be easy to convince others to imbibe 3D principles. However, the reality is that data can be intimidating for most. It is an abstract resource whose use is unappreciated.

This necessitated a gradual process where we built local partners’ capacity to understand the benefits of doing 3D and exposed them to practical applications needed for stakeholders to appreciate data. Data aren’t just numbers that go into a report but reflect underlying relationships.

We make a distinction between two aspects of 3D: kwenta2, which is the essence of data in measuring things and looking at data as numbers, statistics, and evidence; and, kwento3, which is expressing data and numbers as stories about people and the communities they represent. Having both increases people’s stake in the 3D process: being able to tell factual stories about their local communities and providing potential solutions to their issues.

Fourth, we learned that it takes a village to implement 3D. This is the 21st century version of bayanihan4 — the data bayanihan, composed of local government units, civil society organizations (CSOs), and state universities/colleges (SUCs). Each component is focal to “carrying” the data institution: LGUs generating data and implementing evidence-based policies, CSOs determining what the community needs and mobilizing to identify need data and policies, and SUCs providing technical assistance as part of their mandate.

With our local partners, we implemented community mobilization activities to serve as 3D applications which can be scaled up to the whole municipality. Examples include drafting local health codes based on existing health data, mapping business establishments, and creating an agricultural portal to connect farmers and the market. Indeed, the power of data bayanihan is unparalleled.

Finally, 3D is not just about data for data’s sake, nor technology for technology’s sake. At the center of data are the people and their local communities. In Filipino, tao ang nasa sentro ng datos (people are in the center of the data) — both literally and figuratively. From the get-go, our partners identified focus sectors (e.g., health, tourism, agriculture) where we would implement the 3D projects. This was driven by their desire to improve these sectors to contribute to local development. As we went along, foci were further narrowed down by realities on the ground: data availability, political priorities, and project resources.

From the start and until the end, our commitment to putting people at the center of our initiatives is what transcends 3D to HD: human-centered data-driven development.

For more details on the 3D Program, visit our webpage: www.aer.ph. For the USAID project, visit https://collabdev.aer.ph and for the EU project, visit https://ph3d.aer.ph.

1Bibingka is a rice cake that is cooked with heat applied both above and below. — Ed.

2Kwenta means to count, a tally, a sum. — Ed.

3Kwento means story or storytelling. — Ed.

4Bayanihan is community spirit and action, usually illustrated by the image of neighbors carrying a nipa hut to a new location. — Ed.

 

Laurence Go (@golaurencego) is the data lead for the 3D Program and a trustee and senior fellow of Action for Economic Reforms. He finished his economics PhD at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona.

Lessons from Japan’s economic miracle

JUN RONG LOO-UNSPLASH

A plutonium bomb blasted Nagasaki just three days after an atomic bomb razed the city of Hiroshima. It was Aug. 9, 1945 and this marked the end of World War 2 and the painful defeat of Japan.

Japan was a country left in rubble. The bombings disrupted food production and the people lived in hunger. The economy, driven by the production of war supplies, came to a screeching halt as industrial production fell by 90%. Per capita income plummeted by a massive 47%.

Poverty was at an all-time high and the government was hard-pressed to provide the people with the basic essentials. Reconstructing the economy proved a challenge considering Japan’s small population (exacerbated by the lack of mature men, casualties of war), and the lack of natural resources and funds.

Yet, in just 23 years, Japan rose to become the second largest economy in the world, overtaking behemoths like France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Japan is, without doubt, the 20th century’s most spectacular economic miracle. How did they do it? Japan’s rise from rags to riches offers valuable lessons for the Philippines.

Beggars can’t be choosers. Following their defeat in 1945, Japan had no choice but to accede to stiff terms in exchange for US reconstruction aid. Between 1946 and 1952, Japan received roughly $2.2 billion ($15.2 billion in 2005), of which almost $1.7 billion were grants and $504 million loans. In exchange, Japan was to be an ally of the United States and a vital instrument to its foreign policy for Asia. Japan committed not to form an armed forces for external attacks nor would it stockpile weapons of mass destruction. Rather, its military would focus on domain security.

Japan’s finances were buoyed by gold extracted from the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries, all of which was used for its reconstruction.

Japan was wise in the way it utilized its reconstruction funds. It invested the lion’s share into rebuilding its steel mills, petrochemical plants, chemical laboratories, machine workshops, power plants, and glass and lens factories. In other words, it prioritized the fundamental industries for rapid industrialization. Companies such as Nippon Steel, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries were given a new lease on life with government support.

The real game changer, however, was the government’s well-articulated statement of intent which quickly gained nationwide support. Japan was to rise from its embarrassing defeat to become an industrial superpower. It would restore its honor not by military might but by economic supremacy. This was the national vision and it was cemented in the minds of the populace, all of whom were enjoined (oftentimes socially pressured) to do their part in its realization.

To this end, a higher level of social discipline was demanded among the citizenry. The highest moral ethics were required from leaders, both in government and the private sector. Companies were encouraged to cooperate rather than compete. Banks were mandated to support rather than usurp. And the workforce was expected go over and beyond the call of duty. This gave rise to Japan’s culture of “collective gain.”

The government made a deliberate move to channel the savings derived by a 90% cut in military spending towards education. Emphasis was given to STEM learning in anticipation of its intended industrial wave.

The Japanese were keen to detect the flaws in the western industrial model and use these to their advantage. One of these flaws was the manner in which western industrial supply chains were structured.

In America and Europe, a supply chain would hinge on a principal manufacturer, say the Ford Motor Co. Ford would obtain its parts and components from multiple suppliers. Each supplier, in turn, would have their own subcontractors. These subcontractors would depend on a slew of raw material suppliers.

The relationship between each unit of the supply chain was based on short-term purchase contracts. These contracts would typically be good for one year — some as short as 30 days.

Should any of the units in the supply chain experience shocks like a sudden cost spike, a fire, or a labor strike, they would still be contract-bound to sell their products at the same price even at a loss. If they are unable to, Ford, or any unit in the supply chain, would simply drop them and award the contract to an alternative supplier.

The western model was based on the laissez faire principle of survival of the fittest among independent units. There was little room for collaboration or cooperation. Each worked for immediate profits, not for long-term objectives.

Japan designed an industrial ecosystem meant to foster growth via cooperation. This ecosystem is called the keiretsu.

The keiretsu is an interconnected network of companies characterized by strong alliances and cross-shareholding among its members. The companies in a keiretsu own small amounts of each other’s shares to strengthen their alliance. Hence, the success (or failure) of one unit is shared among all. A bank is usually at the center of a keiretsu and acts as the financier of the alliance.

Instead of having short term purchase contracts, members of a keiretsu are governed by contracts of as long as 25 years. The long-term nature of the contracts insulates the members from business shocks. Banks in the keiretsu offer financing to tide members across business slumps. They also offer soft loans for expansion.

There are two types of keiretsus, horizontal and vertical. A horizontal keiretsu consists of large independent companies that belong to different industry sectors. Normally, a bank and/or a trading company exerts influence in terms of decision making and overall strategic direction. Mitsubishi is an example of a horizontal keiretsu, where at the center is the Bank of Tokyo. Other members of the group include Mitsubishi Motors, Meiji Mutual Life Insurance, and Mitsubishi Shoji Trading Company, among others.

A vertical keiretsu is led by one large entity who is also the end user of the products of the supply chain. Vertical keiretsu are common in the automotive and electronics industries like Mazda and Sony.

The competitive advantages of the keiretsus model are vast. Because of the long-term nature of purchase contracts, members are able to invest in research and development for which engineering advances are shared across all members of the keiretsu. Due to resource sharing, members of the keiretsus are able to maximize profits. These profits are reinvested in R&D and better employee benefits. Cooperation is at the heart of every keiretsus. Each member leverages on the expertise of the other towards advancement. Thus, growth is accelerated, revenues compound, and market share expands. Keiretsus maintain a long-term view of business. They invest in conquering new markets and new product segments even if doing so incurs initial losses.

The formation of keiretsus is how Japan rose to become the second largest economy in only 23 years.

What are the lessons for the Philippines?

Government must clearly define the industries which the country aspires to dominate (e.g., artificial intelligence, high-precision manufacturing, etc.). The role of banks in industrial development must be strengthened. Education in STEM learning is a must. Foundational industries such as steel, chemicals, and precision equipment must be developed to foster rapid industrialization even if it requires government subsidies. Finally and most importantly, the government must clearly define its national vision and inspire the populace to support it. It must lead by example and demand the highest ethics among all Filipinos.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

andrew_rs6@yahoo.com

Facebook@AndrewJ. Masigan

Twitter @aj_masigan

A war for whom?

TETIANA SHYSHKINA-UNSPLASH

The Russian government’s Tass news agency reported on Tuesday that two breakaway regions of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region — the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics (DPR and LPR) — have set a “referendum on joining Russia” for Sept. 23 to 27. The Russian-language independent news outlet Meduza cited two sources close to the Kremlin that said referendums will also be held in the Russian-occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, on the same dates (newsweek.com Sept. 20, 2022).

The referendum scheme was already successfully used after Russian forces, on Feb. 27, 2014, took control of Crimea which had been transferred to Ukraine at the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991. Vladimir Putin, president of Russia since 2000, fielded a referendum on March 16, 2014, asking Crimea’s ethnic Russian majority if they wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. With 97% of its citizens voting “Yes!” Russia formally added Crimea on March 21, less than a month after the Russian invasion. Kyiv and the West said the referendum violated Ukraine’s constitution and international law. But Crimea remains annexed to Russia.

Notably, the referendum that Russia now seeks for it to annex about 15% of the total Ukrainian territory (about the size of Hungary or Portugal) will be in regions that have large ethnic Russian populations, as Crimea was when it was annexed. Per the last official census in 2001, Donetsk Oblast was 38.2% ethnic Russian, Luhansk 39%, Zaporizhzhia 24.7%, and Kherson 14.1% who still identify themselves as Russians more than Ukrainians. The same census showed that 95.9% of Russians in Ukraine consider the Russian language to be native for them, versus 3.9% who named Ukrainian as their native language. Perhaps Russian President Putin is counting on the outdated statistics, which will give some credibility to the expected overwhelming “Yes!” of Ukrainian hostages to the Russian-controlled referenda. And there really are some protest and separatist groups in Ukraine who have gained self-confidence with the aggression of Russia initiated in February 2022 — now a seven-month war escalating to a possible global conflict.

The Ukrainian side has recently been winning in many strategic regions that had been attacked and subsequently controlled by Russia, and the biggest blow to Ukraine would be for its ethnic Russian-descent citizens to become Russian citizens. The ballots being distributed on Friday and the weekend had one question: “Do you wish to secede from Ukraine and create an independent state that will enter the Russian Federation?” Putin has cleverly redirected and redefined the casus belli of the Russian aggression to a noble fight for the freedoms of both Ukrainians and Russians.

Political analysts point out that “after referendums have joined all four regions to Russia then Ukraine and potentially its Western backers too, would, from a Russian perspective, be fighting against Russia itself. That would raise the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the NATO military alliance, a scenario that President Joe Biden has said could lead to World War Three, because NATO-members are supplying arms and giving intelligence to Ukraine.” (Reuters Sept. 20, 2022).

Washington and the West have so far said that the weapons they supply to Ukraine should not be used to fire on Russian territory. Ukraine says it will not rest until every Russian soldier is ejected from its territory. Kyiv says it will never accept Russian control over its territory and has called on the West to supply more and better arms to fight Russian forces (Ibid).

In a short, televised address to the nation on Sept. 21, Putin warned the West that he was not just bluffing about his threat to annex regions in Ukraine and will use all the means at his disposal to protect Russia’s territory, including using nuclear capability. “To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for separate components and more modern than those of NATO countries and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal,” Putin said (Associated Press, Sept. 21, 2022).

In the same address Putin publicly announced the calling to active military duty of the initial batch of 300,000 reservists to augment the fight to regain “rightful” Russian territory. It is the first mobilization in Russia since World War II (Ibid.). Shortly after Putin’s address, Russian media reported a sharp spike in demand for plane tickets abroad, even though far fewer of those have been available since the start of the war and they are much more expensive than before. Hordes of “escapees” from the mobilization draft hastily crossed to the nearest friendly border by cars, trucks, or bicycles before restraints could be imposed. A clause in the decree prevents most professional soldiers from terminating their contracts and leaving service until the partial mobilization is no longer in place. The call-up sparked protests in major Russian cities including Moscow and St. Petersburg on Tuesday, resulting in a reported 1,300 arrests (BBC News, Sept. 23, 2022).

In the four targeted regions of Ukraine, one of the first consequences of annexation by the referenda would be the conscription of Ukrainians into the Russian military. That is already the case in parts of Luhansk and Donetsk occupied by Russia since 2014 (New York Times, Sept. 23, 2022). Ironic and pathetic. Is not the deathly war between Russia and Ukraine a fight for the rights and freedoms of these conflicted people whose minds and hearts have been confused by insistent former parent-country versus protective present allegiance?

Ukrainian forces said that 10,000 of their soldiers were killed, 30,000 wounded, 7,200 missing (5,600 captured) from Feb. 24 to June 3, 2022. Russians claim they have actually killed and wounded 110,575 Ukrainian soldiers (61,207 killed, 49,368 wounded) from Feb. 24 to Sept. 21, 2022.

The US estimates that between 70,000 to 80,000 Russian and their allied forces were killed and wounded from Feb. 24 to Aug. 8, 2022. Most saddening is that the United Nations counts 5,916 civilians killed, 8,616 wounded (confirmed minimum, thought higher) from Feb. 24 to Sept. 18, 2022.

But the casualties of the war are not only the pitiful dead and wounded in the battlegrounds. The economic unrest from the direct intervention in the already-haywire markets from the sanctions and embargoes between the opposing sides and their allies in the war have added to the deep recession caused by the long-staying COVID pandemic. Russia is the world’s 3rd largest oil producer, the 2nd largest natural gas producer and among the top five producers of steel, nickel, and aluminum. It is also the largest wheat exporter in the world (almost 20% of global trade). On its side, Ukraine is a key producer of corn (6th largest), wheat (7th), sunflowers (1st), and is amongst the top 10 producers for sugar beet, barley, soya, and rapeseed (coface.com March 7, 2022).

On the day the invasion began, financial markets around the world fell sharply, and the prices of oil, natural gas, metals, and food commodities surged. The escalation of the conflict increases the likelihood that commodity prices will remain high for much longer. In turn, it intensifies the threat of long-lasting high inflation, thereby increasing the risks of stagflation and social unrest in both advanced and emerging countries (Ibid.).

But the most devastating punishment of the war is the erosion of the harmony and peace among nations in the modern world, slowly built up from the razing of the last World War.

We pray for a peaceful resolution of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Soon.

 

Amelia H. C. Ylagan is a doctor of Business Administration from the University of the Philippines.

ahcylagan@yahoo.com

Storm Fiona ravages Canada’s east coast causing ‘terrifying’ destruction

STEPHENVILLE, Newfoundland — Powerful storm Fiona ripped into eastern Canada on Saturday with hurricane-force winds, forcing evacuations, knocking down trees and powerlines, and reducing many homes on the coast to “just a pile of rubble in the ocean.”

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the center of the storm, downgraded to Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona, was now in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and losing some steam. The NHC canceled hurricane and tropical storm warnings for the region.

Port aux Basques, on the southwest tip of Newfoundland with a population of 4,067, bore the brunt of the storm’s rage.

The mayor was forced to declare a state of emergency and evacuated parts of the town that suffered flooding and road washouts.

Several homes and an apartment building were dragged out to sea, Rene Roy, editor-in-chief of Wreckhouse Weekly in Port aux Basques, told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.

“This is hands down the most terrifying thing I’ve ever seen in my life,” Mr. Roy said, describing many homes as “just a pile of rubble in the ocean right now.”

“There is an apartment building that’s literally gone. There are entire streets that are gone,” he added. Police are investigating whether a woman had been swept to sea, CBC reported.

“We’ve gone through a very difficult morning,” Button said in a Facebook video, adding that the evacuations had been completed. “We’ll get through this. I promise you we will get through it.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met on Saturday morning with members of a government emergency response team, and later told reporters that the armed forces would be deployed to help with the clean up.

“We’re seeing reports of significant damage in the region, and recovery is going to be a big effort,” Mr. Trudeau said. “We will be there to support every step of the way.”

Mr. Trudeau had delayed his planned Saturday departure for Japan to attend the funeral of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but said he now would no longer make the trip. Instead he said he would visit the storm-damaged region as soon as possible.

Federal assistance has already been approved for Nova Scotia, Mr. Trudeau said, and more requests are expected.

Fiona, which nearly a week ago battered Puerto Rico and other parts of the Caribbean, killed at least eight and knocked out power for virtually all of Puerto Rico’s 3.3 million people during a sweltering heat wave.

Fiona made landfall between Canso and Guysborough, Nova Scotia, where the Canadian Hurricane Center said it recorded what may have been the lowest barometric pressure of any storm to hit land in the country’s history.

Ian Hubbard, a meteorologist for the Canadian Hurricane Center, told Reuters it appears Fiona lived up to expectations that it would be a “historical” storm.

“It did look like it had the potential to break the all-time record in Canada, and it looks like it did,” he said. “We’re still not out of this yet.”

Storms are not uncommon in the region and typically cross over rapidly, but Fiona is expected to impact a very large area.

While scientists have not yet determined whether climate change influenced Fiona’s strength or behavior, there is strong evidence that these devastating storms are getting worse.

NO POWER
Some 69% of customers, or 360,720 were without power in Nova Scotia, and 95%, or more than 82,000, had lost power on Prince Edward Island, utility companies said. Police across the region reported multiple road closures. The region was also experiencing spotty mobile phone service. 

Mobile and wi-fi provider Rogers Communications, Inc. said it was aware of outages caused by Fiona, and that crews would work to restore service “as quickly as possible.”

PEI produces more than a fifth of Canada’s potatoes and the island’s potato farms, which are in harvest season, were likely to be impacted by the storm, Mr. Hubbard said.

“This morning we all woke up to some very scary scenes — roads washed down, uprooted trees, mail boxes where they are not supposed to be,” Darlene Compton, deputy premier of PEI, told reporters, saying it had been a “nerve-wracking” night.

In Halifax, 11 boats sank at the Shearwater Yacht Club and four were grounded, said Elaine Keene, who has a boat at the club that escaped damage.

Quebec Premier Francois Legault said no injuries or fatalities had been reported so far, and officials from both PEI and Nova Scotia said the same.

The storm weakened somewhat as it traveled north. By 5 p.m. in Halifax (9 p.m. GMT), it was over the Gulf of St. Lawrence about 80 miles (130 km) northwest of Port aux Basques, carrying maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour (110 kph), the NHC said. — Reuters

Iran will act firmly, president says, as country is swept by large protests

DUBAI — Iran must deal decisively with protests which have swept the country after the death in custody of a woman detained by the Islamic Republic’s morality police, President Ebrahim Raisi said on Saturday.

At least 41 people have been killed in the week-long unrest, state television said on Saturday. It said that toll was based on its own count and official figures were yet to be released. Protests have erupted in most of the country’s 31 provinces.

State media quoted Mr. Raisi on Saturday as saying Iran must “deal decisively with those who oppose the country’s security and tranquillity.”

Raisi was speaking by telephone to the family of a member of the Basij volunteer force killed while taking part in the crackdown on unrest in the northeastern city of Mashhad.

The president “stressed the necessity to distinguish between protest and disturbing public order and security, and called the events… a riot,” state media reported.

The protests broke out in northwestern Iran a week ago at the funeral of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who died after falling into a coma following her detention in Tehran by morality police enforcing hijab rules on women’s dress.

Her death has reignited anger over issues including restrictions on personal freedoms in Iran, the strict dress codes for women, and an economy reeling from sanctions.

Women have played a prominent role in the protests, waving and burning their veils. Some have publicly cut their hair as furious crowds called for the fall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The protests are the largest to sweep the country since demonstrations over fuel prices in 2019, when Reuters reported 1,500 people were killed in a crackdown on protesters — the bloodiest confrontation in the Islamic Republic’s history.

On Friday, state-organized rallies took place in several Iranian cities to counter the anti-government protests, and the army promised to confront “the enemies” behind the unrest.

In neighboring Iraq, dozens of Iraqi and Iranian Kurds rallied outside the United Nations compound in the northern city of Erbil on Saturday, carrying placards with Amini’s photograph and chanting “death to the dictator,” referring to Khamenei.

State television in Iran, which has accused armed exiled Iranian Kurdish dissidents of involvement in the unrest, said Iranian Revolutionary Guards had fired artillery on bases of Kurdish opposition groups in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

‘DEADLY RESPONSE’
At least three times this week, mobile Internet has been disrupted in Iran, the NetBlocks watchdog has reported. Activists say the move is intended to prevent video footage of the violence reaching the world.

On Saturday, NetBlocks said Microsoft’s Skype video calling app was now restricted, the latest such measure after platforms including Instagram, WhatsApp and LinkedIn were targeted.

In an effort to help sustain internet connection, the United States is making exceptions to its sanctions regime on Iran — a move which Tehran said on Saturday was in line with Washington’s hostile stance.

Rights group Amnesty International said protesters face a “spiraling deadly response from security forces” and called for an independent United Nations investigation.

On the night of Sept. 21, shootings by security forces left at least 19 people dead, including three children, it said.

“The rising death toll is an alarming indication of just how ruthless the authorities’ assault on human life has been under the darkness of the internet shutdown,” Amnesty said.

State television showed footage purporting to show calm had returned to many parts of the capital Tehran late on Friday.

“But in some western and northern areas of Tehran and certain provinces rioters destroyed public property,” it said, carrying footage of protesters setting fire to garbage bins and a car, marching and throwing rocks.

The activist Twitter account 1500tasvir carried videos of protests in Tehran’s western district of Sattarkhan showing protesters gathered at a square chanting “don’t be afraid we all in this together” late on Saturday with a motorcycle apparently belonging to riot police burning in the background.

A video posted on social media showed a demonstration in the northern city of Babol with youths trying to take off portraits of Khamenei and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, at the gate of a university while bystanders cheered them on and shouted “death to the dictator.”

Videos posted on social media showed continued protests in Sanandaj, capital of Kurdistan province, late on Saturday, despite a heavy police presence. Reuters could not verify the videos. — Reuters

US sending ‘dangerous signals’ on Taiwan, China tells Blinken

NEW YORK — China has accused the United States of sending “very wrong, dangerous signals” on Taiwan after the US secretary of state told his Chinese counterpart on Friday that the maintenance of peace and stability over Taiwan was vitally important.

Taiwan was the focus of the 90-minute, “direct and honest” talks between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York, a US official told reporters.

“For our part, the secretary made crystal clear that, in accordance with our long-standing one-China policy, which again has not changed, the maintenance of peace and stability across the Strait is absolutely, vitally important,” the senior US administration official said.

China’s foreign ministry, in a statement on the meeting, said the United States was sending “very wrong, dangerous signals” on Taiwan, and the more rampant Taiwan’s independence activity, the less likely there would be a peaceful settlement.

“The Taiwan issue is an internal Chinese matter, and the United States has no right to interfere in what method will be used to resolve it,” the ministry cited Mr. Wang as saying.

Tensions over Taiwan have soared after a visit there in August by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which was followed by large-scale Chinese military drills as well as a pledge by US President Joseph R. Biden to defend the democratically governed island.

Mr. Biden’s statement was his most explicit to date about committing US troops to defend the island. It was also the latest instance of his appearing to go beyond a long-standing US policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which does not make it clear whether the United States would respond militarily to an attack on Taiwan.

The White House has insisted its Taiwan policy has not changed, but China said Mr. Biden’s remarks sent the wrong signal to those seeking an independent Taiwan.

In a phone call with Mr. Biden in July, Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned about Taiwan, saying “those who play with fire will perish by it.”

China sees Taiwan as one of its provinces and has long vowed to bring the island under its control and has not ruled out the use of force to do so.

Taiwan’s government strongly objects to China’s sovereignty claims and says only the island’s 23 million people can decide its future.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry, responding to the meeting between Mr. Blinken and Mr. Wang, said China’s “recent provocative actions” had made the Taiwan Strait a focus of discussion, and China was trying to “confuse the international audience with arguments and criticisms that contradict reality.”

The State Department had said earlier that Mr. Blinken’s meeting with Mr. Wang was part of a US effort to “maintain open lines of communication and manage competition responsibly,” and the senior official said Mr. Blinken had reiterated US openness to “cooperating with China on matters of global concern.”

Mr. Blinken also “highlighted the implications” if China were to provide material support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or engage in wholesale sanction evasion, the official added.

US officials have in the past said they had seen no evidence of China providing such support.

Mr. Blinken “underscored that the United States and China and the international community have an obligation to work to counter the effects of that invasion and also to deter Russia from taking further provocative actions,” the official said.

BILATERAL TIES
Mr. Blinken’s meeting with Wang was preceded by one between the foreign ministers of the Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the United States, which issued a statement, referring to the Indo-Pacific, saying that “we strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo or increase tensions in the region.”

Since Pelosi’s visit “China has taken a number of provocative steps that have by design acted to change the status quo,” the US official said.

US Vice President Kamala Harris will discuss Taiwan security during bilateral meetings with the leaders of US allies Japan and South Korea when she visits them next week, another US official said.

Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for Asia under President Barack Obama, said the fact Mr. Blinken and Mr. Wang had met was important after the turbulence brought by Ms. Pelosi’s visit, and hopefully some progress would have been made towards arranging a meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden on the sidelines of a G-20 meeting in November, which would be their first in-person as leaders.

“Wang and Blinken’s decision to meet in New York does not guarantee the November summit will go smoothly or that it will even occur. But had they been unable to meet, it would have meant the prospects for a summit in November were poor,” said Mr. Russel, now with the Asia Society.

In a speech to the Asia Society in New York on Thursday, Wang said the Taiwan question was growing into the biggest risk in China-US relations.

“Should it be mishandled, it is most likely to evastate our bilateral ties,” Mr. Wang said, according to a transcript from the Chinese embassy.

Likewise, the decades-old US law outlining Washington’s unofficial relations with Taiwan, which Beijing considers null, makes clear that Washington’s decision to establish diplomatic relations with China in 1979 “rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.” — Reuters

BSP signals more rate hikes, FX moves to defend peso

REUTERS

The Philippine central bank signaled it will resort to more interest-rate hikes depending on the Federal Reserve’s action, while also considering proactive market interventions to curb currency losses.

“Strong dollar is requiring us to have bigger policy rate increases,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Felipe M. Medalla said in an interview from New York with Bloomberg Television’s Shery Ahn and David Ingles after delivering a half-point increase. “Clearly the Fed’s policies have affected our choices. We don’t want to match the Fed, at the same time we have to respond.”

The Philippines was one of three Southeast Asian nations to raise borrowing costs Thursday, with cumulative hikes by BSP touching 225 basis points so far this year.

Besides the policy rate, Mr. Medalla said the central bank has the option of actively intervening to support the peso, which fell to a record low this week amid an exceptionally strong US dollar. The Fed’s hawkish rhetoric on controlling inflation has piled pressure on Asian currencies, including the Japanese yen, while economies facing a current-account deficit are particularly vulnerable to a sell-off.

“We have been quite active this week,” Mr. Medalla said on the BSP’s intervention in the foreign exchange market, adding that the moves will possibly be even more active in the coming days.

“We clearly are intervening in the forex market. One approach is to intervene more strongly because the volatility is actually now much higher,” the governor said. The other approach is to reduce local currency liquidity by borrowing more from the central bank’s weekly auctions so there will be less peso to chase dollars, he said.

The peso rose as much as 0.3% in Friday trading to 58.30 per dollar.

Mr. Medalla sees inflation returning within its 2%-4% goal next year, saying it will be possibly closer to 3% than 4%.

While elevated price growth is weighing on consumption, the economy is still seen as among Asia’s bright spots, suggesting space to further tighten monetary policy.

Philippine economic managers have been joining President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., in international trips this month, in part to woo investors. Earlier this week, Marcos touted the Philippines as “vibrant economy,” as his government gears for an “A” credit rating in the medium-term. — Bloomberg

Australia seeks stable ties with ‘great power’ China, minister says

STOCK PHOTO | Image from Pixabay

SYDNEY — Australia is aiming for a stable relationship with China despite differences, in particular, on trade, Australia’s foreign minister said, as she called on China to use its influence as a great power to help end the war in Ukraine.

Australia’s ties with its largest trading partner are at a low after disputes over a number of issues including the origins of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, trade, and Australian accusations of Chinese interference.

“I think it is a long road on which many steps will have to be taken by both parties to a more stable relationship,” Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong told reporters after meeting her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Thursday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

“In terms of issues of difference, obviously first amongst them is the issue of trade blockages, and that is the issue I focused on at the outset,” she said.

Ms. Wong said her meeting with the Chinese foreign minister was constructive and she urged China, as one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5), to use its influence to help end the Ukraine crisis.

“China is a great power … We encourage China as a P5 member with a special responsibility to uphold the UN charter to use its influence to end the war,” she said.

She said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was illegal and President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons was “unthinkable and irresponsible.”

Ms. Wong said in her talks with Wang Yi she had raised the issue of Australian journalist Cheng Lei and blogger Yang Hengjun, who have been detained in China and face espionage charges.

Thursday’s meeting with Wang Yi, the second in three months, comes as the recently elected Labor government looks to rebuild ties after a sharp deterioration during the term of the previous conservative government.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said this week “there was a belligerence in the way in which the former government spoke” and his government was looking to change the tone. — Reuters

Poorer nations face rising debt servicing costs in 2024 — report

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

LONDON — Some of the nations most vulnerable to climate change face a sharp rise in debt service payments in the coming two years, hampering their ability to invest in climate proofing and shoring up their economies, a research report found.

The Vulnerable Group of Twenty (V20) — a group of 55 economies exposed to the fallout from climate change — expect debt service payments to rise to $69 billion by 2024 — the highest level in the current decade, according to calculations from the V20 and the Boston University Global Development Policy Centre.

Debt service payments in 2022 are at $61.5 billion and are set to be a touch above that in 2023, the authors said.

Emerging market and developing countries (EMDs) are struggling with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the climate crisis, and interest rate increases in advanced economies, wrote Luma Ramos in the report published on Friday.

A number of debt relief schemes for the world’s poorest nations were launched after the pandemic roiled global financial markets and hammered economies around the world.
However, progress has been slow and some of the schemes — such as the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) — have expired.

“Without debt relief and other complementary measures such as grants, V20 countries will postpone their ability to reap the benefits of climate investments, such as improved resilience and enhanced power generation through renewables,” the report added.

Adding to the complexity was a change in creditor structure across the $686.3 billion in external public debt owed by V20 nations. Private creditors were now the biggest group, holding over a third of the debt while the World Bank and other multilateral institutions held a fifth each, the report found. V20 nations owed 7% of the total to China, while 13% was owed to Paris Club wealthy creditor nations.

The authors also urged the International Monetary Fund to upgrade its Debt Sustainability Analysis to account for climate risks faced by vulnerable nations.

“Given that climate impacts are increasing the cost of capital increase for vulnerable countries, the close association between climate change and debt sustainability needs to be captured and should inform the discussion on the countries needing debt relief,” the report found.

The V20 economies include Barbados, Cambodia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Honduras, Lebanon, Morocco, Nepal, the Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Sudan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Tuvalu and Vietnam. — Reuters

US-led Pacific group to focus on climate, connectivity amid China concerns

PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM/FORUMSEC.ORG

WASHINGTON — China’s ambitions in the Pacific are a concern for some Pacific Island leaders, White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said on Thursday, but a growing US partnership with allies in the region aims to address issues such as climate change, health, and technology links.

Mr. Campbell spoke after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted a meeting with foreign ministers from the Partners in the Blue Pacific (PBP) — a group formed in June that includes the United States, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

US officials briefing reporters on the meeting said Canada and Germany intended to formally join the initiative, which seeks to coordinate assistance to the strategically vital region in the face of competition from China.

“I think as we’ve seen in some instances, clearly China has ambitions in the Pacific, some of which have caused concern among Pacific Island leaders,” Mr. Campbell said. But he said the group’s agenda would be guided by Pacific Island countries’ needs.

“When we engage with Pacific Islanders one of the first things that they say is that for us national security really involves our environment and how climate change is an existential issue for them,” Mr. Campbell said.

The Blue Pacific event, held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, comes ahead of a Sept. 28–29 summit US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., plans to host with Pacific island leaders.

The Biden administration has said that the summit reflects its commitment to Pacific Island countries, whose leaders said this month Washington should accept their priorities, making climate change — not superpower competition — the most urgent security task.
Mr. Campbell added that the group was also working on increasing connectivity among island states.

He said the United States, Australia, and Japan had been involved in a number of efforts to advance undersea cables in the Pacific and added, in apparent reference to the summit, “we’ll have more to say about this next week.”

Mr. Campbell said two of the initiatives the Quad group of countries — the United States, Japan, India and Australia — wanted to focus on in the Pacific were maritime domain awareness and increasing communication links among island states with countries like Japan, Australia, and India.

“That can only be accomplished through the laying of … undersea cables. And so, I think the challenge is before us,” he said. “We think it’s important, and it will require financing and capacity, not just of any one state, but our combined efforts together.”

In a separate meeting, Mr. Blinken and his South Korean and Japanese counterparts affirmed a shared commitment to support Pacific Island countries. A joint statement said they pledged to look at ways to better help the island nations access climate finance and reaffirmed support for their efforts to boost maritime security and fisheries protection. — Reuters

IMF’s board seen backing ‘food shock window,’ aiding Ukraine and others

WASHINGTON — The board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to approve a new “food shock window” in the next few weeks that will allow the global lender to provide emergency funding to Ukraine, the head of the fund’s European department said on Thursday.

Alfred Kammer told a conference hosted by Bloomberg that the Ukrainian government and its central bank deserved “huge credit” for managing the economic shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of the country on Feb. 24.

He said an IMF mission would examine Ukraine’s budget plans and the fiscal-monetary policy mix in late October, and stressed that the central bank needed to avoid printing money to finance its budget deficit, while focusing on tax revenues instead.

The fund provided $1.4 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine in March, shortly after the war began, and worked with authorities with great success, using “orthodox and unorthodox” measures to stabilize the macroeconomy.

Ukraine could receive another $1.3 billion in emergency assistance when the IMF’s board approves expanded access to its Rapid Finance Instrument (RFI) for countries experiencing food shocks as a result of the war, Mr. Kammer said.

Mr. Kammer said that a vote was expected in the next few weeks, and a source familiar with the matter said it was likely to occur on Sept. 30.

“We are discussing with Ukraine a macro stabilization framework … that will help Ukraine in terms of internal coordination of policies, it will help in terms of identifying the external financing needs, and it will help donors to provide that financing in a timely manner,” he said.

Mr. Kammer said the fund had remained in close touch with Ukrainian authorities since the war began, and was now discussing a more formal monitoring arrangement.

“What we’re aiming at ultimately — this is leading towards a fully-fledged IMF program,” he added, noting that the situation was challenging given that planning was only possible on a “month-to-month” basis at the month given the ongoing war. — Reuters

Biden, Marcos discuss tensions in South China Sea

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. at the New York Stock Exchange. — OFFICE OF THE PRESS SECRETARY

NEW YORK — US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and his Philippine counterpart, Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., underscored their support for freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea on Thursday, in response to China’s efforts to exert its influence there.

Messrs. Biden and Marcos held their first face-to-face talks on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Mr. Marcos, son of the late Philippine President Ferdinand E. Marcos, Sr., took power in June.

“The leaders discussed the situation in the South China Sea and underscored their support for freedom of navigation and overflight and the peaceful resolution of disputes,” the White House said in a statement after the talks.

Mr. Biden said as the two men began their talks that he wanted to talk about the South China Sea, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and renewable energy. He thanked Mr. Marcos for opposing Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The United States has accused China of increased “provocations” against rival claimants to territory in the South China Sea and other countries operating there.

“The role of the United States in maintaining the peace in our region is something that is much appreciated by all the countries in the region and the Philippines especially,” Mr. Marcos said.

The Philippines is a key ally of the United States and vital strategically in case of any US need to defend Taiwan militarily from Chinese attack, given its geographical position.

The United States is keen to arrange greater access to bases in the Philippines given the need to prepare for that contingency.

“The leaders reflected on the importance of the US-Philippines alliance. President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defense of the Philippines,” the White House said.

Manila’s ambassador to the United States, a relative of Mr. Marcos, told Japan’s Nikkei newspaper this month the Philippines would let US forces use the Southeast Asian nation’s military bases in the event of a Taiwan conflict only “if it is important for us, for our own security.”

The meeting with Mr. Biden underlines the stunning turnaround in fortunes for the disgraced former first family of the Philippines, 36 years after Mr. Marcos’s father was driven into exile by a “people power” uprising.

The new president is on his first trip to the United States in 15 years. He is the subject of a US contempt-of-court order for refusing to cooperate with a Hawaii court that ruled the Marcos family must pay $2 billion of plundered wealth to victims of abuses during his father’s martial law era.

He has rejected allegations his family stole from the treasury and has diplomatic immunity as head of state. — Reuters

1...5,3395,3405,341...13,730Page 5,340 of 13,730
© 2024 BusinessWorld Publishing.
All rights reserved.
Read our privacy guidelines
Facebook Instagram Linkedin Twitter Youtube