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Electronics, food exports seen little affected by slowing global trade

REUTERS

THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said resilient electronics and food exports will be the Philippines’ best bets for weathering the 2023 slowdown in trade forecast by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Trade Undersecretary Ceferino S. Rodolfo said on the sidelines of a World Bank event in Makati City on Thursday that electronics and food exports are not expected to be heavily affected by global headwinds.

“We are always affected by global developments, especially when it comes to our export sector. But we are banking on the resilience that they have exhibited during this pandemic and post-pandemic,” Mr. Rodolfo said.

“On the ground, we can see that our exporters, particularly those in the electronics sector or food … are critical, (and) not too sensitive when it comes to global downturns. Despite that projection, we will be working with the private sector so that we could sustain the recovery of the export sector,” he added.

On Oct. 5, the WTO said that global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow slower in 2023.

“WTO economists now predict global merchandise trade volumes to grow by 3.5% in 2022 — slightly better than the 3.0% forecast in April. For 2023, however, they foresee a 1.0% increase — down sharply from the previous estimate of 3.4%,” the WTO said in a statement.

The WTO said import demand is expected to soften due to various economic challenges such as high energy prices arising from the Russia-Ukraine war, monetary policy tightening in the US, restrictive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) policy in China, and the growing cost of fuel, food, and fertilizer.

“Policymakers are confronted with unenviable choices as they try to find an optimal balance among tackling inflation, maintaining full employment, and advancing important policy goals such as transitioning to clean energy…,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

“While trade restrictions may be a tempting response to the supply vulnerabilities that have been exposed by the shocks of the past two years, a retrenchment of global supply chains would only deepen inflationary pressures, leading to slower economic growth and reduced living standards over time. What we need is a deeper, more diversified and less concentrated base for producing goods and services,” she added.

The Philippines posted a $43.23-billion trade deficit in 2021, wider than the $24.597 billion reported in 2020, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said in April.

On the other hand, total trade, or the sum of exports and imports, rose 24.2% to $192.53 billion in 2021.

Mr. Rodolfo said the Philippines hopes to improve its ranking in Southeast Asia in terms of net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, noting that the country’s current rank is fourth.

“We are still lagging behind our neighbors. Actually, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) just revised its net FDI inflows for the Philippines for 2021. Previously reported was $10.5 billion but they just revised it to $12.5 billion,” Mr. Rodolfo said.

“First is Singapore at about $80 billion. Indonesia is about $20 billion. Vietnam is about $15.7 billion. Then us (Philippines) at $12.5 billion. So, the target is maybe we can surpass Vietnam in the first half of this administration, then surpass Indonesia in the latter part of this administration,” he added. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave 

50 power distributors seen non-compliant with order to itemize generation charge

BW FILE PHOTO

THE Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) said on Thursday that 50 distribution utilities (DUs) are now under evaluation for alleged non-compliance with an order to provide their clients a breakdown of their generation charge.

In a statement, the ERC said that only 65% or 91 out of the total 141 DUs itemized their generation charges.

ERC Resolution No. 05 series of 2007 directed DUs to list the components of their generation charges.

The ERC said that this resolution requires “all DUs to post on their respective websites the breakdown of their generation charges, including, but not limited to, their sources.”

The ERC did not identify the DUs nor discuss possible penalties.

The ERC said section 25 of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 (EPIRA) obliges DUs to supply electricity on a least-cost basis.

The generation charge is the direct cost of obtaining energy from power generators. It accounts for over half of a typical consumer’s power bill.

“By posting the detailed breakdown of the generation cost, the consumers are well informed of the different sources of power that the DU had contracted including the cost per supply source,” the ERC said.

The ERC noted that the order compels DUs to be transparent and accountable in procuring their power supply. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

An alternative approach to agriculture

TUAN ANH TRAN-UNSPLASH

IN ITS MAY 21, 2022 cover story on India, the Economist noted that the Indian government used a direct, real-time, digital welfare system to pay $200 billion over three years to about 950 million people. How did this come about?

In January 2013, the government of India introduced the Direct Benefit Transfer or DBT scheme to streamline the transfer of government-provided subsidies from various Indian welfare schemes directly into the beneficiaries’ bank accounts. This has been one of the most ambitious financial inclusion initiatives ever seen anywhere in the world, bringing over 330 million people into the formal financial sector.

By 2020, 318 subsidy schemes from 53 ministries have been directly transferred to the farmer beneficiaries. And the program is so successful that India is now a wheat and rice exporter.

Here in the Philippines, we also provide subsidies to the farmers.

In a Nov. 9, 2012 press release, then Senator Franklin M. Drilon allayed fears of tobacco farmers and workers in Northern Luzon about the supposed drawback of the sin tax reform bill on their livelihood.

“Our farmers can be assured of a variety of assistance from the government once this sin tax bill is passed. We will double the safety net being provided under the law to help them augment their income and to support alternative livelihoods for the farmers,” stressed Drilon, the acting chair of the Senate Ways and Means committee. Under Republic Act 7171, tobacco farmers are entitled to a 15% share of the incremental tobacco revenue collected from the excise tax on tobacco products.

In a May 22, 2022 press release, the Department of Finance noted that in the first three years of its implementation, the law liberalizing rice trading has earned a total of P46.6 billion in rice import duties, which directly benefited palay (unhusked rice) farmers through a P10-billion annual fund created to finance programs that will sharpen their global competitiveness by way of farm mechanization, high-quality seeds, access to credit, and training.

Under Republic Act (RA) No. 11203 or the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL), tariffs collected from rice imports go to the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF). Collections in excess of the P10-billion fund go to the Rice Farmer Financial Assistance or RFFA. The law took effect on March 5, 2019.

The big difference between India and the Philippines is that the subsidies in the Philippines are not in cash deposited directly to the bank accounts of farmer beneficiaries. Instead, they are coursed through an intermediary, the Department of Agriculture. The Department of Agriculture was mandated to procure the agricultural inputs and, more importantly, advise the farmers on their proper use. The expected result in the case of the rice farmers is that with the added advantage of a 35% tariff on imported rice, they could compete against the rice imports.

Alas, such has not been the case. Our agricultural sector continues to be a drag on our economy and, judging from the complaints of the farmers, the Department of Agriculture has not made them competitive in rice as well as in numerous other agricultural commodities.

We argue that we should follow the Indian model of converting all agricultural subsidies into cash for direct deposit to the bank account of the farmer beneficiaries.

In the interest of efficiency, modern technology now allows us to bypass the middleman. We are no longer reduced to the unpalatable alternative of continually shoveling good money to the middle man in the forlorn hope that they will exceed our modest expectations.

But there are more compelling policy, nay, moral, issues that should compel us to adopt the Indian model. Under the present system, the government in effect tells the farmer, “I will help you only on condition that you continue to be a farmer no matter your talent or inclination. Hence, I give you agricultural inputs and this middleman and not cash.”

Far better for the government to tell the farmer, “I am depositing this cash into your bank account. As an adult you may use the money to improve your farm or explore another livelihood or send your children to school. That is your choice.”

Critics will argue that many farmers will now abandon farming. I agree. Surveys indicate that many farmers do not wish their children to follow in their footsteps and become farmers. For me this is not an unwelcome outcome.

In 1900, 40% of the US population were farmers. By 2016 only 1% were farmers. And yet this 1% of the population produces more than enough food to feed the more than 300 million Americans and a good portion of the world, the Philippines included.

Apparently unlike the Philippine Department of Agriculture, the US Department of Agriculture did not define its mission as sustaining the teeming number of farmers to subsist in a marginal livelihood, but rather to nurture a group of progressive and entrepreneurial farmers who have astounded the world with their productivity.

 

Dr. Victor S. Limlingan is the chairman of the Cristina Research Foundation, Inc., a public policy advisory firm, and the Regina Capital Development Corp. He is presently a Regent of the Board of Regents of the Pamantasan ng Lunsod ng Pasig. Among the books he has written are The Overseas Chinese in ASEAN: Business Strategies and Management Practices and The Visible Hand and the Developing Economy. As public policy adviser to the legislative branch, he advised on legislation such as Kalakalan 20, Overseas Workers Development Fund, the charter of the Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the EPIRA Law.

CHR should prove HRW wrong

CHRISTIAN LUE-UNSPLASH

“President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.,” said Human Rights Watch (HRW) Deputy Asia Director Phil Robertson in a Sept. 28 statement, “just slapped victims of human rights abuses in the face with his appointment of a loyalist lawyer with no discernible experience in human rights work as new CHR chair.”

Robertson was referring to Richard Palpal-latoc, whose appointment as Chair of the Commission on Human Rights (CHR), although signed in early September, was announced only on the 27th of the month. His description of Palpal-latoc as a “loyalist” is based on his being Marcos Jr.’s Deputy Executive Secretary when he was appointed to the CHR as one of his two choices to fill the vacancies in that Constitutional body. Like the new CHR Chair, the other Marcos appointee, a Beda Angeles Epres, has no background in human rights work either.

In his speech at the 17th United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 20 (Sept. 21 in the Philippines — and the 50th anniversary of his father’s 1972 declaration of martial law) in New York City, Marcos Jr. agreed with the UN on the need for all countries to respect human rights, and praised the UN Joint Program on Human Rights as “an example of a constructive approach” to ending racism and prejudice.

But because of Marcos Jr.’s appointment of Palpal-latoc, Robertson dismissed those seeming indicators of respect for human rights as mere rhetoric. He noted that no human rights group or defender was consulted in the selection of the new CHR Chair. The Palpal-latoc appointment, he continued, therefore raises the question of whether Marcos Jr. “is embarking on a process to gut the CHR as an independent and impartial body empowered to investigate rights abuses without fear or favor of those in power.” Robertson concluded by saying that “Chairman Palpal-latoc will have a steep hill to climb to demonstrate that he deserves to sit in that chair, and that he knows up from down about the Philippines’ international commitments on human rights.”

The number and breadth of those commitments are considerable. They go back to the late 1940s when, as one of the first members of the United Nations, the Philippines was a signatory to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Since then, the country has signed on to various covenants, conventions, treaties, and protocols for the defense and advancement of civil, social, political, cultural, and economic rights, as well as against gender, ethnic, and racial discrimination, slavery, unlawful imprisonment, cruel and unusual punishment, torture, and human trafficking, among many others.

But neither those international commitments nor the Philippines’ own laws, such as the presumption of innocence and the right to a fair trial, prevented the gross violations of human rights during the Marcos Sr. dictatorship and even the years prior to it. Among those violations were arbitrary arrest and detention, torture, cruel and degrading treatment, summary executions and extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances.

Together with the Bill of Rights and those provisions in the 1987 Constitution limiting the power of the President to declare and prolong martial rule, the creation of the Commission on Human Rights was among the means the drafters of that document saw as necessary in preventing the repetition of the gross human rights violations committed by the military and police thugs that kept the Marcos Sr. dictatorship in power from 1972 to 1986. (Marcos’ first term was in 1965, and his second in 1969. He was twice elected democratically, but declared martial law in 1972, and was thus President for a total of 21 years.)

Despite the Bill of Rights and the CHR, human rights abuses continued during the Corazon Aquino, Fidel Ramos, and Joseph Estrada regimes, with the most violations occurring during Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s nine-year occupation of Malacañang. Her term culminated in the record-breaking Nov. 23, 2009 Maguindanao Massacre which claimed the lives of 58 men and women, among them 32 journalists and media workers.

The number of abuses, including the killing of journalists, declined somewhat during the Benigno Aquino III presidency. But it surged to near-unprecedented levels during the Duterte regime, due mostly to, but not solely because of, its bloody “war on drugs.” Almost from Day One of his administration, President Rodrigo Duterte had also demonstrated in words and deeds his contempt for human rights, which he claimed are merely convenient shields for criminal behavior. At one point he described himself as “for human lives” rather than for human rights, as if extrajudicial killings were not violations of the fundamental right to life.

In 2017 Mr. Duterte declared in his State of the Nation Address (SONA) that the CHR should be abolished — which of course would have required a Constitutional amendment.

Nothing came of regime attempts to cripple the CHR. But to Mr. Duterte, it might as well have ceased to exist. Ignoring it completely, on a number of occasions he ordered the police and military to kill his and his regime’s perceived enemies, while promising to protect them from prosecution, in effect sanctifying the culture of impunity that has enabled even the worst wrong-doers to escape punishment.

During Mr. Duterte’s six years in office, neither Amnesty International (AI), Human Rights Watch, the US State Department Report on Human Rights Practices, nor Philippine human rights groups ever ran out of accounts of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, massacres, physical assaults, torture, and other assaults against regime critics, lawyers, activists, journalists, and even human rights defenders despite the Constitution and the many international conventions, covenants, protocols, and treaties protecting them to which the Philippines is a signatory.

In its 2021 report on the Philippines, Amnesty International echoed the findings of other monitoring groups that human rights defenders, government critics, political activists, and even some politicians have been targeted for assassinations, harassment, and arbitrary arrest and detention. Indigenous Peoples (IPs) were also attacked, with some of them killed by government security forces and other assailants. AI correctly noted that lack of accountability — the exemption from punishment of wrongdoers, or the impunity so loudly sanctioned by the Duterte regime — encourages killings and other rights violations.

It is to the reversal, or just the mitigation of this dire human rights situation that the CHR can and should contribute. Without a background in human rights work, Chairman Palpal-latoc, so as to prove that he deserves the post for which he applied and has been appointed, has to very quickly acquaint himself with the abysmal state of human rights observance in the Philippines.

Even more urgent is for the CHR during his seven-year watch to more rigorously monitor and investigate the gross abuses that the six years of the Duterte regime have encouraged — and for him to urge government, particularly President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., to hold to account those responsible.

To paraphrase HRW’s Phil Robertson’s remarks, his doing so would help dispel fears that he has been charged with reducing the CHR into just another instrument in propagandizing the myth that human rights abuses are no more than the imaginings of enemies of the State and of criminal minds — as they supposedly were during the Marcos, Sr. dictatorship and as former President Rodrigo Duterte claimed them to be.

It is Chairman Palpal-latoc and his fellow commissioners’ burden to prove Robertson wrong. They would otherwise validate the latter’s view that his appointment is “a slap in the face” of the many victims and survivors of human rights violations in these isles of woe.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Greatness of spirit

LARM RMAH-UNSPLASH

“To nurture a better tomorrow, we need to strengthen the child protection in our country.” — Dr. Bernadette J. Madrid, Ramon Magsaysay Laureate 2022.

The 14th annual Ako Para Sa Bata (APSB) conference opened at the Magsaysay Center with an inspiring lecture by Dr. Madrid, the champion for child protection.

Present onstage were panelists and speakers: Emily Abrera, Trustee of the Ramon Magsaysay Awards Foundation; Mariella S. Castillo, MD, Consuelo Foundation Managing Director; Dr. Shantha Sinha, 2003 Ramon Magsaysay Awardee, India (who participated via Zoom); Patricia Lim Ah Ken, Chief of Child Protection, UNICEF Philippines; Stella G. Manalo, MD, Conference Chair, APSB; Carmencita D. Padilla, MD, Chancellor UP Manila. And Integrated Bar of the Philippines representatives who signed a memorandum of agreement (MOA) with the Child Protection Network (CPN).

“[There are] certain formal and informal structures, functions and capacities that have been assembled to prevent and respond to violence, abuse, neglect, and exploitation of children. A child protection system is to be comprised of the following components:

“Human resources, finance, laws and policies, governance, monitoring and data collection as well as protection and response services and care management.

“It also includes different actors — children, families, those working at sub-national or national level and those working internationally. Most important are the relationships and interactions between and among these components and these actors within the system. It is the outcomes of these interactions that comprise the system.” (UNICEF 2021)

The Philippine National Baseline Study on Violence against Children (CWC, 2016) reveals that 80% of Filipino children have experienced violence. Physical, emotional abuse and bullying affect three out of five children. Sexual violence: one out of five children.

“Beyond the numbers, this is about the needless suffering of our children. A moral disgrace and the consequences are borne by this generation and the next,” Dr. Madrid remarked.

“I will share with you the lessons we have learned the past 25 years — my personal experiences as a pediatrician and Head of the Child Protection Unit at the Philippine General Hospital (CPU-PGH) of the University of the Philippines Manila and as Executive Director of the Child Protection Network Foundation, that led to the strengthening of the child protection system.

“Child protection does not really have a concrete identity for government such as health, education, justice….

“In a developing country like the Philippines there will always be competing priorities because there are not enough resources even for basic needs.

“We identified the Department of Health as the best fit because it already has the personnel for a multidisciplinary team of doctors, social workers and mental health providers. Health is the gateway for so many victims of violence. It is a natural entry point for receiving care, especially for those who are ready to disclose abuse. It has the capacity for both intervention and prevention work and data collection…”

The Department of Health Order in the establishment of Women and Children Protection Units (WCPUs) in all government hospitals is a major achievement.

Dr. Madrid enumerated additional challenges:

1. “Convincing the health sector, including the Department of Health, that violence against women and children is a public health concern.

2. “Making sure that the WCPUs is an adaptive general response mechanism to violence against women and children.

3. “Expansion of the team to include legal service”

At the conference, the memorandum of agreement with the IBP was signed by CPN’s Executive Director Dr. Bernadette J. Madrid, Katrina Legarda, National Director of the National Network of WCPUs, and IBP’s Marienne M. Ibadlit, National Director on Gender and Development, and Myline Urmenita-Palisoc, Deputy Director on National Center for Legal Aid.

4. “Mental Health Gap. Our patients need a spectrum of mental health services from acute to long term. More abused adolescents are at high risk for suicide (during the pandemic.) Telepsychiatry is a strategy.”

She mentioned the development services for all children and adults regardless of gender. What about the boys? LGBTQI +?

There is a need to strengthen the children and women protection workforce, from social service to health, to legal, to education. Training programs now include doctors, social workers, police, the judiciary and the barangay.

“Multidisciplinary training is important because we all must learn how to work together.”

Trainers should have the expertise and specialized training based on Clinical Practice guidelines and peer-review that is being institutionalized.

“Convincing the Education sector that in order to learn, children need to be protected from violence. Our experience shows that so many children drop out of school or do poorly in school because of violence that they have experienced at home or in school.”

Based on research, globally, the potential loss in human capital wealth due to violence in school is $11 trillion for 2019.

There are changing norms and practices.

“We found that the messenger is as important as the message,” she emphasized.

There is a carefully designed competency and skills-based training to sensitize our family judges and personnel handling child witnesses and victims of abuse.

Violence against children can be prevented. INSPIRE (WHO, 2016) are evidence-based prevention and response interventions that are scientifically evaluated. “Masayang Pamilya” is a controlled study Filipino adaptation of the Parenting for Lifelong Health Program. It showed reduced child maltreatment, emotional abuse and neglect in families.

Dr. Madrid shared her personal thoughts.

“It has been 25 years. System strengthening takes a long time…. We are in the frontlines. Witnessing what is happening with our children… and what they experience when they go through the system. We feel their pain. That is what guides us in all that we do.

“It is also about relationships… We would never have made a difference without all the partnerships. The support that was unstintingly given by people who do not even want to be known. We are members of a community that protects all children and hold each other’s hands when it is needed. I take this opportunity to thank you.

“We all know that we serve a purpose greater than ourselves.”

It took a foreigner who came here when he was a young man to start all of this. His name is David Bradley. After 25 years, he is still with us. He leads the CPN Foundation board that works quietly and effectively.

“Greatness of spirit comes in many forms. I consider myself blessed to experience it every day. Our children deserve nothing less.”

Warm congratulations, Dr. Bernadette J. Madrid and CPN.

Happy 25th Anniversary to CPU-PGH!

The “Ako Para Sa Bata” conference meetings, with the theme “The Beginning, the Building and the Institution in the Philippines,” are being held every Thursday until Nov. 24 at 10-11:30 a.m. via Zoom and Face Book Live. Registration is free. Register online at bit.ly/akoparasabata2022. Follow @AkoParaSaBataConference on FB for updates and announcements.

 

Maria Victoria Rufino is an artist, writer and businesswoman. She is president and executive producer of Maverick Productions.

mavrufino@gmail.com

Time for a Philippine pivot away from China

BW FILE PHOTO

The deal with having lived long enough is it opens one beyond mere book learning. Take Martial Law of the 1970s, of which 75% of the Philippine population were born only after it was lifted (with a further 10% merely toddlers or in grade school when it was imposed). If that 85%’s knowledge of that era is exclusively based on biased material, then erroneous homogenous thinking is the result. Which makes the vociferous discarding of the experiences, benign or not, of those that actually went through those years utter foolishness.

LIVED EXPERIENCE
This should encourage us to ponder about something those already living and aware in the 1980s instinctively know: Forgotten now is the fact that around 40 years ago almost everybody concluded that the Japanese, beaten in World War II, were set to take over the world via global commerce. Tons of books, even movies (most famously Rising Sun, starring Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes, based on a book by Michael Crichton), either celebrated or were trepidatious over Japan’s “inevitable” hegemony.

But the inevitable did not happen, certain flaws within its economic system, exacerbated by a speculative asset price bubble, did Japan’s ambitions in.

CHINA CRISIS?
Which brings us to China, everybody’s acknowledged supposed next superpower, poised to take sole global leadership and wrest power away from the United States sometime halfway this century. And yet, it may surprise many to know that the Middle Kingdom’s presented condition is actually far more illusory than Japan’s was then.

Certain fundamental and inherent flaws within the Chinese system, either political or relatedly so, highlighted in recent times by floods and droughts, as well as a stupendously unwise and incompetent (not to mention tyrannical) lockdown zero-COVID policy, led the country to suffer from “energy shortages, disrupted river-based logistics, hit industrial production, and lowered agricultural yields” (“Mounting Problems Threaten to Dampen Xi’s Congress Victory,” The Diplomat, September 2022).

Yet, that is not even China’s worse problem. For a country that touted having a population of 1.3 to 1.4 billion: “A newly released revision of the United Nations Population Division’s demographic projections estimates that by the end of this century, China will no longer be the most populous country in the world. Perhaps even more surprising, according to the UN’s newest projections, China will be almost exactly half the size of India, which is expected to have 1.53 billion people, by 2100. To those who object that 2100 is too far off to be of practical relevance, by 2050, India, with 1.67 billion people, will already have around 300 million more people than China” (“A Shrinking China Can’t Overtake America,” Foreign Policy, July 2022). The foregoing is assuming China has not inflated its population numbers, which it most likely has. By some estimates, it would be lucky to have even a population of 700 million by the middle of this century.

Thus, the “unexpectedly rapid aging is slowing China’s economy, reducing revenues, and increasing government debt, with provinces cutting civil servants’ wages and infrastructure investment this year. Clearly, the population base that supported China’s strategic expansion is gone” (“Leaked Data Show China’s Population Is Shrinking Fast,” Project Syndicate, July 2022).

For context, the Philippine average age is 25.7 (with Filipinos under 30 constituting 57% of the population, those under 50 about 90%). China’s average age is 38.42 (with only around 35% under the age of 30).

A country which has just a little over half of its people under 45, the impact on its productivity, hence economy, is enormous — on it depends much needed “resources for global diplomacy, influence-building, and military investment will soon come under tremendous pressure from the need to fund more prosaic but inescapably necessary things, such as much more robust social security, national health insurance, and retirement systems.” Needless to say, that vanished due to China’s prolonged one-child, later two-child, policy.

FUEL, FOOD, AND THE MILITARY
Consideration must be given to the thought that a diminished or humbled China could make it an erratically dangerous player on the world stage. Yet that may not necessarily be the case: for one, its industries and resources heavily depend on the global trading system, which tilts toward and is regulated practically by the United States. It is highly dependent on foreign oil (China is the world’s biggest importer, putting its energy needs at the mercy of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq; and even the US, one of its fastest growing import markets) and imported food (China is the largest importer of agricultural products, particularly from the EU and US).

What of the vaunted Chinese military? To that a four-word response: Russia’s difficulty versus Ukraine. Unlike the Philippine military (and definitely the US’), for example, which has been in a state of constant conflict participation, the Chinese military, despite its vaunted resources (now threatened by a threatened economy), is basically untested. And isolated from the rest of the world’s security arrangements.

A GOOD TIME FOR A PHILIPPINE PIVOT
All the foregoing presents an opportunity (and necessity) to recalibrate Philippine foreign policy, to turn it away from its over-reliance on China, and thus make it truly independent. Nevertheless, foreign policy is merely an extension of the domestic, and thus the following possible directions:

• Revive the ROTC for college-level youth but supplemented by mandatory military service requirement (one or two years) akin to that of Singapore and which could (like Singapore) apply to the 20-35 age group, plus another program for those older and up to 50 years of age.

• Refashion a defense posture taking advantage of the fact that our territory is made up of separate and disparate islands and that those islands are then divided internally by numerous rivers, lakes, hills, caves, and other land features. The point therefore is to organize our defense forces to work with a national command, if available, but capable of quickly and readily adapting to independent guerilla efforts on a per region or district basis. Essentially, the policy is attrition.

• To facilitate this, our Self-Reliant Defense Posture (SRDP) program should be calibrated around this policy, with armament and transportation manufacturing and purchases reflecting the type of defense planning advocated here: producible en masse, mobile, easily hidden, and interchangeable.

• For such SRDP, the Departments of National Defense (DND), and Trade and Industry can work on developing local industries for that purpose. One huge consideration is the sourcing and storing of fuel and minerals used as raw materials for whatever equipment is necessary for a credible defense effort.

• The DND could work with the Department of Information and Communications Technology to develop a group that will focus on defensive and offensive computer expertise and technology.

• The Philippine Competition Commission could increase emphasis on monitoring and regulating foreign ownership in industries vital to national security.

• The National Food Authority should emphasize stockpiling of food and other related resources, viewed to include readiness in food supplies in case there is indeed a need to shift to a highly prolonged defense effort (or even natural calamities).

There is also the need to cooperate with our traditional allies in the protection of maritime commerce, for which additional security arrangements, as well as greater engagement in international trade, would be critical.

A huge opening and opportunity are available for the Philippines, conditioned however on the ability to harness its human and natural resources ably and with dignity. And assuming, of course, we can accurately identify what our national interests truly are.

 

Jemy Gatdula is a senior fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence

www.facebook.com/jigatdula/

Twitter @jemygatdula

Taiwan sees more Chinese intimidation in Xi’s next term 

Chinese President Xi Jinping. — WIKIPEDIA.ORG

TAIPEI — Taiwan expects China to increase its coercion and intimidation to achieve its goal of bringing the island under Beijing’s control once President Xi Jinping assumes a third term in office, a senior Taiwanese minister said on Thursday.

Beijing’s once-in-five years leadership reshuffle is set for the Communist Party congress that starts Oct. 16, where Mr. Xi is poised to break with precedent and secure a third leadership term.

China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and has ramped up military and political pressure to assert sovereignty claims, including staging war games near the island in August after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.

Speaking to lawmakers, Chiu Tai-san, the head of Taiwan’s China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council, said Mr. Xi will further consolidate his power at the party congress.

“Following that, the strength of the Chinese Communist Party will gradually expand, along with the continuous emphasis on promoting the reunification process in its development strategy,” Mr. Chiu said.

“We believe that the Beijing authorities’ work on Taiwan has entered the stage of strengthening the practice of the so-called ‘anti-independence and promoting reunification’,” he added

China will do this by using “coercion and intimidation”, “grey zone” activities and international law to “interfere with and hinder Taiwan’s interaction and cooperation with the international community to achieve its goals towards Taiwan,” Mr. Chiu said.

Speaking at a parallel session in parliament, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong said Mr. Xi was using Taiwan as a way to stay in power.

“It has been his position that the Taiwan issue can’t be passed onto the next generations anymore, so he’s using the Taiwan issue as an excuse to extend his term,” Mr. Chen said.

“As a result, he can’t just do nothing about Taiwan. However, if he settles the Taiwan issue then he has no excuse for another term.”

As a result, Mr. Chen said, Taiwan must make preparations to make China “pay a great price” for attacking the island, including consequences for its economy and foreign relations.

China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, but has also pledged to work for peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan under a “one country, two systems” model.

All mainstream Taiwanese political parties have rejected that proposal and it has almost no public support, according to opinion polls.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not answer calls seeking comment. The country is in the middle of a weeklong national holiday.

China refuses to speak to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, re-elected by a landslide in 2020 on a promise to stand up to Beijing, believing she is a separatist. Ms. Tsai has repeatedly offered talks based on parity and mutual respect. — Reuters

Plenty of ‘fire’ but less ‘fury’ as tensions with North Korea rise again

REUTERS

SEOUL/WASHINGTON — Between long-range missile launches and the looming prospect of new nuclear tests, this year has seen North Korea return to weapons activities not seen since the days of “fire and fury” in 2017.

A key difference: despite the “fire” from North Korea this time around, there has been far less concerted international “fury.”

Analysts say the international response comes down to a number of factors, including US President Joseph R. Biden’s low-key approach, a fracturing in cooperation between the United States and China and Russia, and a lack of agreement on the thorny question of how to change Pyongyang’s behavior.

“While there’s still pretty broad political condemnation of North Korea’s continued testing, there is neither agreement about how to respond to it nor the political will among the big powers to work together,” said Jenny Town, director of the US-based 38 North project.

North Korea paused its long-range missile launches and nuclear testing during its engagement with then-US President Donald Trump, but those talks fell apart. This year, Pyongyang resumed firing its largest missiles and appears poised to detonate a nuclear device for the first time in five years.

Last month leader Kim Jong Un said an updated nuclear policy law means that denuclearization talks will never be an option.

That means more sanctions are unlikely to dissuade North Korea from pursuing its banned weapons programs, Ms. Town said.

“They have imposed costs on North Korea for their continued WMD development — but it seems a cost North Korea is willing to pay and can find partners who will work with them,” she said.

FEW SIMPLE OPTIONS
In May, China and Russia vetoed a US-led push to impose more United Nations sanctions on North Korea over its renewed missile launches, publicly splitting the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.

This week Beijing and Moscow opposed a US effort to even hold a public UNSC meeting on the latest launches, with Russia’s envoy calling more sanctions “a dead end.” The United States accused those countries of providing North Korea with “blanket protection.”

That has left the United States and its partners to impose new unilateral sanctions, and resume major displays of military force, including deploying an aircraft carrier and staging missile drills.

Mr. Biden’s aides have condemned the launches, but the president rarely raises the issue publicly.

Much of what Washington was doing in 2017 bears a close resemblance to the steps it is taking now: assurances to allies, displays of military capability, and warnings to North Korea, among other measures, said Evans Revere, a former US diplomat.

“The problem, of course, is that the threat is now growing,” he said. “This tells me that it is now necessary for the US and its allies to lift their game.”

Stephen Biegun, a top North Korea negotiator under Trump, said Pyongyang is unlikely to respond to the Biden administration’s call for negotiations without preconditions, and in fact “hate” that kind of open-ended offer.

“They want an offer sheet. They don’t want a negotiation,” he said. “They want to know what the Biden administration is going to give them.”

Analysts say Mr. Biden’s muted responses may lower the chances of an inadvertent war, but some worry that North Korea feels emboldened.

“The situation is better and worse than 2017: better because we don’t have a president who might want to try a limited preventive strike that could escalate quickly; worse because Kim Jong Un clearly thinks he has wide latitude to test and build up his diverse and increasingly capable nuclear weapons and missiles,” said Patrick Cronin of the Hudson Institute. — Reuters

Soaring egg prices force French food industry to change recipes

PHILIPPINE STAR/ WALTER BOLLOZOS

PARIS — A more than doubling in egg prices in France due to soaring feed and energy costs and a lack of supplies after the worst ever bird flu crisis has prompted some food companies to lower output or change recipes, egg producers said on Wednesday.

Both the European Union (EU) and the United States have experienced one of their worst bird flu crises ever this year with tens of millions of poultry culled in each region.

In turn world egg production, which hit 1,500 billion in 2021, was expected to fall for the first time in history this year, following a 4.6% drop in the United States, a 3% decline in the EU and an 8% slump in France, the bloc’s largest egg producer, French industry group CNPO said.

“We are in a situation that has never been seen before. In previous crises we used to turn to imports, notably from the United States, but this year the situation is bad everywhere,” CNPO deputy chairman Loic Coulombel said.

The drop comes at a time of strong consumer demand for eggs, seen as a cheap protein source at a time of soaring inflation.

“Unable to pass the price rise some companies have already started changing recipes or have halted production lines,” Mr. Coulombel said. “You need a lot of eggs to make cakes or egg pasta.”

A change in recipe could be switching types of eggs, reducing the volume used or, more rarely, exchanging them for alternatives such as pea or milk proteins.

Prices of eggs in French supermarkets have risen about 15%-20% since the start of the year, following a law that indexes food prices in supermarkets to producers’ animal feed costs.

But industry egg prices on the French spot market, which are also linked to supply and demand, were trading at 2.2 euros ($2.2) a kilogram on Wednesday, more than double their price at the start of the year and about 65% above their average price at this time of the year, Mr. Coulombel said.

They were likely to surpass a record 2.3 euros/kg before the end of 2022 due to growing demand at year-end but would still remain well below U.S. spot prices for standard eggs, now at 4.24 euros/kg, he said. — Reuters

Rash of child deaths in Gambia linked to cough syrups made in India — WHO

VECTORPOUCH-FREEPIK

THE DEATHS of dozens of young children in Gambia from acute kidney injuries may be linked to contaminated cough and cold syrups made by an Indian drug manufacturer, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday.

The findings, announced by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, followed tests on several medicinal syrups that were suspected of causing 66 child deaths in the tiny West African country.

Mr. Tedros told reporters that the U.N. agency was conducting an investigation with Indian regulators and the company that made the syrups, New Delhi-based Maiden Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

Maiden Pharma declined to comment, while calls and messages to the Drugs Controller General of India went unanswered. India’s health ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

The WHO issued a medical product alert on Wednesday asking regulators to remove Maiden Pharma goods from the market.

The products may have been distributed elsewhere through informal markets, but had so far been identified only in Gambia, the WHO said in its alert.

The alert covers four products: Promethazine Oral Solution, Kofexmalin Baby Cough Syrup, Makoff Baby Cough Syrup and Magrip N Cold Syrup.

Lab analysis confirmed “unacceptable” amounts of diethylene glycol and ethylene glycol, which can be toxic and lead to acute kidney injury, the WHO said.

Medical officers in Gambia raised the alarm in July, after dozens of children began falling ill with kidney problems. The deaths confounded medics before a pattern emerged: dozens of patients younger than five fell ill three to five days after taking a locally sold paracetamol syrup.

Gambia’s director of health services, Mustapha Bittaye, said similar problems have been detected in other syrups but that the ministry is awaiting confirmation of the results.

He said the number of deaths has tapered off in recent weeks and that the sale of products made by Maiden Pharmaceuticals was banned. However, until recently, some of the syrups were still being sold in private clinics and in hospitals, he said.

Gambia’s Medicines Control Agency sent a letter on Tuesday to health professionals ordering them to stop selling any of the products listed by WHO.

Maiden Pharmaceuticals manufactures medicines at its facilities in India, which it then sells domestically as well as exporting them to countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, according to its website. — Reuters

GM Eugene Torre inducted into the World Chess Hall of Fame

ASIA’s First Grandmaster Eugene Torre — PSC

FOR trailblazing Asian chess for almost half a century, Filipino Grandmaster (GM) Eugenio Torre was aptly carved a special place where all legends like him truly belonged — the World Chess Hall of Fame (WCHOF).

After a long delay, Mr. Torre, 70, was officially inducted into the WCHOF in an unforgettable ceremony attended by no less than Philippine-born American Wesley So at the St. Louis Aquarium at Union Station in Missouri Wednesday.

Accompanied by wife Maria Lina, Mr. Torre received the plaque bearing his image and biography.

His notable games and highlights will also be featured in a digital interactive gallery.

Mr. Torre was actually named into the Hall along with Hungarian Judit Polgar and Poland-born Argentine Miguel Najdorf last year but it was only now that his name was indelibly etched forever as one of the sport’s greatest alongside world champions Bobby Fischer, Garry Kasparov and Anatoly Karpov among others.

It was made more exceptional that Mr. Torre was the first Asian to receive such honor.

Among Mr. Torre’s multitude of accomplishments, emerging the first GM in Asia, first to defeat a reigning world champion in Mr. Karpov and first to reach the Candidates stage of the World Championship were the most unforgettable.

“Thankful and honored to be an inspiration not just to Filipinos and Asians, but also to the whole world,” said Mr. Torre. — Joey Villar

Converge FiberXers try to succeed where Hong Kong’s Dragons early victims failed

CONVERGE (1-1) tries to succeed where Bay Area’s early victims failed. — PBA MEDIA

Games Today
(Smart Araneta Coliseum)
3 p.m. — Terrafirma vs Meralco
5:45 p.m. — Bay Area vs Converge

AFTER debuting with a 46-point blowout, guest team Bay Area Dragons had to dig deep to hurdle a tight match on a buzzer-beating triple then pull through with a come-from-behind caper from 16 down to make it 3-0.

And with local rivals itching and seriously plotting to bring them down, the Dragons of Hong Kong brace for a rougher road ahead in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup.

Up next for the co-leaders is Converge (1-1), which tries to succeed where Bay Area’s early victims Blackwater (133-87), NorthPort (105-104) and Phoenix (101-91) previously failed at.

The Dragons stake their spotless record at 5:45 p.m. today at the Smart Araneta Coliseum.

Also taking the Big Dome’s floor are Meralco (0-2) and Terrafirma (0-3) in a 3 p.m. tiff pitting teams scrambling for breakthrough in the mid-season conference.

The matchup with Converge actually ushers in a tough stretch for Brian Goorjian’s Dragons, who face off with top contender Barangay Ginebra and titleholder San Miguel Beer afterwards.

“The competition so far has been tough. I think the guys understand now and are starting to know what we have to do in order to win and that’s important heading to the top teams,” said Mr. Goorjian.

Explosive 6-foot-2 import Myles Powell, the leader in scoring (36.7 points per game) and steals (3.0 per outing) this conference, looks to power the Dragons to 4-0 and solo first before giving way to the 6-foot-10 Andrew Nicholson in their next four games.

“Same approach I had the last three games. I know coach wants us to be successful. Since I’ve got here, I’ve listened to him and my game has been taking steps forward so I’ll continue to do that,” said Mr. Powell.

Per setup with the PBA, Bay Area will field Mr. Powell in their first four games then suit up second import Mr. Nicholson in the succeeding four. By its ninth match, the team will choose who between the two will play the remainder of the campaign.

Out to foil Mr. Powell’s plan is Quincy Miller, who is intent to bring Converge back on track after its 109-105 loss to Magnolia and into a share of fourth with Rain or Shine and NorthPort at 2-1. In Aldin Ayo’s FiberXers, the Dragons can expect a hard-nosed opponent that puts premium on defense and a high-octane game.

Meanwhile, the Bolts seek to climb out of one of its worst starts in conferences with imports. But they will carry it out minus key player Chris Newsome (calf), who missed a good portion of Meralco’s 101-95 overtime heartbreaker to NorthPort last Friday and sat out the 99-91 setback to Ginebra last Sunday.

“Hopefully, this week of preparations will help us adjust to the loss of Chris Newsome who will be out for at least three games,” said Meralco mentor Norman Black, challenging import Johnny O’Bryant (30.5 markers, 19 boards and 4.5 dimes) and the healthy locals to step up some more.

The Dyip are staying upbeat in a bid to break not only a three-game conference slide but also a longer 19-game skid overall.

CHOT REYES
Notes: TNT coach Chot Reyes faces a possible fine for his outburst in the aftermath of the Tropang Giga’s tournament-opening defeat to Magnolia, 94-92, last Wednesday. A fuming Mr. Reyes confronted the referees and technical officials for what he perceived as a wrongly-called foul on Calvin Oftana that led to Paul Lee’s dagger free throws. League rules prohibit players and coaches from approaching the officials’ table and slap an automatic fine on violators.

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