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Russia claims control of Ukrainian port Kherson

STOCK PHOTO | Image by IGORN from Pixabay

KYIV/KHARKIV, Ukraine — Russian troops were in the center of the Ukrainian port of Kherson on Thursday after a day of conflicting claims over whether Moscow had captured a major urban center for the first time in its eight-day invasion.

Russia’s defense ministry said it had captured Kherson on Wednesday but an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded that Ukrainian forces continued to defend the Black Sea port of about 250,000 people.

“We are a people who broke the enemy’s plans in a week,” Mr. Zelensky said in a video address. “These plans had taken years to write — they are mean, with hatred for our country, for our people.”

The capture of the strategic southern provincial capital, where the Dnipro River flows into the Black Sea, would be the first significant urban center to fall since Moscow launched its invasion on Feb. 24.

Russian forces have yet to overthrow the government in Kyiv but thousands are reported to have died or been injured and more than a million people have fled Ukraine amid the biggest attack on a European state since 1945.

“For many millions more, inside Ukraine, it’s time for guns to fall silent, so that life-saving humanitarian assistance can be provided,” UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi said in a tweet.

Russia’s attack has led to a barrage of international sanctions that threaten the global economic recovery from the COVID pandemic, and stoked fears of wider conflict as Western countries send arms to help the Ukrainian military.

Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhayev said late on Wednesday that Russian troops were in the streets and had entered the council building. He called on civilians to walk through the streets only in daylight and in ones and twos.

“There were armed visitors in the city executive committee today,” he said in a statement. “I didn’t make any promises to them… I just asked them not to shoot people.”

The US State Department called on Mr. Putin and the Russian government to “immediately cease this bloodshed” and withdraw forces from Ukraine. It also accused Moscow of launching a “full war on media freedom and the truth” by blocking independent news outlets and social media to prevent Russians from hearing news of the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” that is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its neighbor’s military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists.

It denies targeting civilians although there have been widespread reports of civilian casualties and the shelling of residential areas.

Bombing in Kharkiv, a city of 1.5 million people, has left its center a wasteland of ruined buildings and debris.

Russians have shelled the city of Izyum, about 120 kms southeast of Kharkiv, killing six adults and two children, Ukraine’s parliament said. Reuters was unable to verify the casualties.

The U.N. Human Rights Office has confirmed the deaths of 227 civilians and 525 injuries during the conflict as of midnight on March 1, cautioning that the real toll would be much higher due to reporting delays.

An explosion also rocked the Kyiv railway station where thousands of women and children were being evacuated. The blast was caused by wreckage from a downed Russian cruise missile, a Ukrainian interior ministry adviser said, and there were no immediate reports of casualties.

An investigation into possible war crimes will immediately be opened by the International Criminal Court, following requests by 39 of the court’s member states, an unprecedented number.

A U.N. resolution reprimanding Moscow was supported by 141 of the assembly’s 193 members, a symbolic victory for Ukraine that increases Moscow’s international isolation.

“More is at stake even than the conflict in Ukraine itself. This is a threat to the security of Europe and the entire rules-based order,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow still sought Ukraine’s “demilitarization” and that there should be a list of specified weapons that could never be deployed on Ukrainian territory. Moscow opposes Kyiv’s bid to join NATO.

For Russians, the fallout has included queues outside banks, a plunge in the value of the ruble which threatens their living standards, and an exodus of Western firms who refuse to do business in the country. — Reuters

Fed’s Powell backs quarter point March rate hike

REUTERS

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, balancing high US inflation against the complex new risks of a European land war, said Wednesday the central bank would begin “carefully” raising interest rates at its upcoming March meeting but be ready to move more aggressively if inflation does not cool as quickly as expected.

Mr. Powell called the Russian invasion of Ukraine “a game changer” that could have unpredictable consequences.

“There are events yet to come and we don’t know what the real effect on the U.S. economy will be,” Powell told the House Financial Services Committee during a monetary policy hearing overshadowed by the conflict in Europe.

But he said for now the Fed was proceeding largely as planned to raise the target overnight federal funds rate and reduce the size of its balance sheet in order to tame inflation that is currently the highest it has been since the 1980s.

Mr. Powell said he will back a quarter point rate increase when the Fed meets March 15-16, effectively putting to rest debate over starting a post-pandemic round of rate hikes with a larger than usual half-point increase.

But the Fed chief said he was ready if needed to use larger or more frequent rate moves if inflation does not slow, and may over time need to push rates to restrictive levels above 2.5% — slowing economic growth rather than simply stimulating it less robustly.

It is a subtle distinction but a marker of Mr. Powell’s focus on inflation as the key fight before the Fed right now, a top-of-mind concern that could undermine the central bank’s credibility if it gets worse, erodes household spending power and begins distorting the investment and spending decisions of businesses and families.

The job market, Mr. Powell noted in prepared testimony, was “extremely tight,” and Fed officials have declared their maximum employment goal effectively met. The pandemic’s impact on the economy appeared to be easing and “demand is strong,” Powell said.

However, inflation is currently triple the Fed’s 2% target, and has become a prime political concern for the Biden administration and members of Congress who came to Wednesday’s hearing armed with anecdotes of constituents paying more for staple goods or for business supplies.

What Mr. Powell described as a collision between strong consumer demand and pandemic constraints on global product supply was “not as transitory as we had hoped…Other mainstream economists and central banks around the world made the same mistake. That doesn’t excuse it, but we thought these things would be resolved long ago.”

FRAMED BY UKRAINE CONFLICT
But even with the immediate focus on inflation, Mr. Powell’s testimony was framed by the conflict in Ukraine, and what it might mean for the United States and world economies in the weeks or even years ahead.

Mr. Powell said that Fed staff had begun analyzing different scenarios but that too much remained unknown about an event whose full implications may “be with us for a very long time.”

“The near-term effects on the US economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain,” Mr. Powell said. “Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.”

“We will proceed carefully as we learn more about the implications of the Ukraine war on the economy,” Mr. Powell said. “We have an expectation that inflation will peak and begin to come down this year. To the extent inflation comes in higher or is more persistently high … we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings.”

The Fed slashed rates to the current near zero level in 2020 to blunt the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. There is now broad agreement that the current level of borrowing costs is out of phase with an economy that has rebounded faster than expected from the health crisis.

Lawmakers peppered Mr. Powell with questions about the fallout from rising oil prices following Russia’s action, the threat of cyberattacks and broader risks to the financial system, and even the impact on the market for fertilizer.

“Everything we can do … we are doing it,” to protect against a cyberattack, Mr. Powell said. “The larger financial institutions are doing it. It’s hard to say what’s possible, but we are on high alert and will continue to be.”

Regarding financial markets, Mr. Powell said that so far, they have been “functioning well. There is a great deal of liquidity out there,” and existing Fed programs were helping.

Mr. Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The Fed chief is required to testify to those House and Senate committees twice a year as part of the central bank’s semiannual reviews of monetary policy. — Reuters

Omicron is 40% deadlier than seasonal flu — study

THE OMICRON strain of COVID-19 is at least 40% more lethal than seasonal flu, according to Japanese scientists, underscoring the potential danger of lifting pandemic curbs too quickly and underestimating the virus’s ongoing health risks.

The case fatality rate of Omicron in Japan, based on cumulative excess deaths and the number of infections since January, was about 0.13%, according to an analysis by scientists who advise the country’s health minister. While that is significantly lower than the 4.25% case fatality rate from earlier in the outbreak, it’s still higher than the 0.006% to 0.09% seen with seasonal flu, they said.

Countries around the world have been relaxing mitigation measures, from mask mandates to testing requirements, and pushing for a return to normal life. The public has grown tired of restrictions and the reduced severity of Omicron has reassured many that the rules are no longer essential. While Japan hasn’t formally downgraded the condition, it is easing border restrictions and quarantine periods for travelers, essential workers and close contacts of positive cases to keep the economy going.

The decline in mortality with Omicron could reflect both the reduced virulence of the strain, particularly in comparison to the Delta variant, and the benefits of vaccination, the researcher said. The findings show the importance of putting control measures in place before vaccines are fully distributed, they said.

More study is needed to determine the impact of the easing once all the restrictions are lifted, Takaji Wakita, chair of the health ministry’s advisory board, said at a briefing Wednesday night where the data was presented. The current information was obtained when most of the pandemic curbs were still in place, he said.

The study, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed or published in a medical journal, has several limitations, including differences in the way the data was collected that makes cross-comparisons difficult, Mr. Wakita said.

“Still, there’s a considerable difference in mortality,” though the arrival of omicron has narrowed the gap between COVID and influenza, he said.

The Omicron-fueled wave has prompted some regions in Japan to seek states of quasi-emergency that restrict the operations of bars and restaurants. Currently, 31 of the country’s 47 prefectures are under those measures until March 6. Some areas, including Osaka and Kyoto, have sought to extend them, while others have asked to have them lifted, national broadcaster NHK reported Wednesday. — Bloomberg

Singapore to build cyber military force as Russia-Ukraine war rages on

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

SINGAPORE will set up a new wing of its armed forces dedicated to digital security with a minister saying the Russia-Ukraine war, which has included cyberattacks, shows the need to build the country’s own defenses against external threats.

Addressing parliament on Wednesday, Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said the Singapore Armed Forces would establish a so-called “fourth service,” meant to integrate and expand the city-state’s capabilities in the digital domain.

“As good and as ambitious as the next generation SAF is, there are some gaps and capabilities, which recent events and developments warned us against,” he said. “And I’m talking primarily about threats in the digital domain.”

The new military cyber service will be set up by the last quarter of the year and should help Singapore “deal effectively with digital threats from external aggressors that we expect will grow in numbers, sophistication and organization,” Mr. Ng said. This may require, “a few brigades, perhaps even a division size force.”

The move comes as hackers with a wide range of allegiances have taken up digital arms in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The unfolding events in Ukraine have resonated with Singapore, which has said in the past that it is vulnerable to cyberattacks, fake news and hostile information campaigns because it is a small but open financial hub.

Last year, the government passed a controversial foreign interference bill aimed at preventing foreign entities or individuals from influencing politics in the country. It also gives the authority to order social media platforms like Facebook and internet service providers to disclose information behind harmful content suspected of being carried out by foreign actors.

Singapore has been subject to cyberattacks. In 2018, the government said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s personal particulars were targeted in a “major” cyberattack on the database of the country’s biggest public healthcare group.

The Straits Times newspaper cited Defense Minister Ng as saying that while intelligence sources haven’t identified orchestrated attempts to subvert Singapore using a combination of physical and virtual attacks just like in Ukraine, it doesn’t mean that the threat will never come. “I think we best prepare now with a longer runway,” he said. — Bloomberg

Truth Omission

ROGER BUENDIA, PEOPLE POWER — THE PHILIPPINE REVOLUTION OF 1986

February 25th came and went last week with only the most perfunctory references to it by the Duterte regime. Since 2017, President Rodrigo Duterte has never been to any ceremony or program commemorating the 1986 “People Power” EDSA uprising.

This year — the 36th anniversary of that moment of national greatness when some two million Filipinos overthrew the Marcos dictatorship and showed the rest of the world that a free people can prevail against tanks and helicopter gunships — this year was no different.

But if there was no change in the Duterte regime’s reluctant commemoration of it, in a departure from his and his family’s past attempts to completely ignore it, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. chose February 25th to launch his and his teammate Sara Duterte’s biggest rally yet in the Ilocos region.

That event demonstrated not only how much support the Marcoses still enjoy in those parts despite the passing of nearly half a century, Marcos Junior’s supporters’ views on his candidacy and his father’s 20-year rule also underscored how crucially disinformation is feeding mass misunderstanding of the brutal reign of Marcos Senior, and, in the process, aiding and abetting Junior’s candidacy for President.

Widely reported, for example, was his most ardent partisans’ praise for Marcos Senior’s not ordering a military assault on the millions massed at EDSA in the four days (Feb. 22-25) of the civilian-military mutiny there, which supposedly demonstrated how much he abhorred violence and valued the lives and well-being of the citizenry.

That claim ignores both the context in which Marcos Senior rejected the urging of his cousin and then Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Fabian Ver to attack the mutineers, as well as the regime’s undisputed 20-year record of violence.

It was, first of all, staged for television — the dictatorship was still in control of the government’s Channel Four at the time — precisely to give the world the impression that a humane and caring President was in charge in the Philippines. Second, there were hundreds of foreign journalists in the capital at that time, and a bloody assault on the massed millions who were protecting then Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile, then AFP Vice-Chief of Staff Fidel Ramos and their military minions would have outraged other governments, especially that of the United States, enough for Marcos to lose their support. His instincts proved accurate. Despite the urging of his highest officials, then US President Ronald Reagan continued to back him until the very last moment of his rule.

Equally ignored is Marcos Senior’s use of violence against the Filipino people almost from Day One of his two-decade presidency. Student and labor activists had been arrested, abducted, and forcibly disappeared even before he declared martial law. Military operatives bombed the Liberal Party proclamation rally at Manila’s Plaza Miranda on Aug. 21, 1971 in an attempt to eliminate its leadership. Marcos suspended the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, and blamed the bombing on labor and farmer leaders, some of whom he caused to be arrested. Once declared, martial law plunged the country into a 14-year orgy of State violence. Over 30,000 were tortured, some 3,000-plus summarily executed, and 100,000 arrested and indefinitely detained without charges.

Disinformation is the concerted, deliberate, and primary strategy of those who would profit politically from the support of the uncritical and so easily manipulated millions. It transforms thieves and murderers into angels of mercy, fascists into democrats, and authentic heroes — the best and brightest sons and daughters of the Filipino people — into demons and villains. It is a phenomenon that the dominance of social media as sources of disinformation has made possible, which even the convening of a truth commission would most probably not remedy.

Truth commissions were organized by the governments that replaced the dictatorships in such countries as South Africa and Chile when democratic forces defeated white minority rule and overthrew the Augusto Pinochet military regime, respectively. The intent was to find out what really happened, and to prosecute those responsible. Equally important, it was thought that such commissions, once the truth of what happened, why, and how had been established, would enable a traumatized people to move forward without any fear of history’s repeating itself, information being the only antidote to the return of authoritarian rule.

No such commission was ever created by the administrations that succeeded that of Marcos Senior’s, hence the continuing debate over what happened from 1972 to 1986, the attempts to completely distort what transpired, and to sanctify the most brutal and most corrupt evil-doers into heroes. But in the age of social media, during which false information has become so much a part of the consciousness of millions, even such a commission is likely to be dismissed as part of a conspiracy, and even for the facts, no matter how well-grounded and validated, to be ignored and rejected as lies.

The findings of the research and fact-checking UP group tsek.ph suggest exactly that. The group found “a heavy dose of conspiracy theory, denial of human rights violations during the Marcos dictatorship and (the depiction) of democracy icon President Corazon Aquino as villain (among) the scores of martial law and EDSA-1 related disinformation” that have gone viral over social media, most especially in Facebook.

These are favorable to Marcos Junior’s and Sara Duterte’s candidacies, since, once the mass of the electorate believes that the Marcos Senior dictatorship was a “golden age,” they are likely to vote for a partnership that implicitly advocates the return of authoritarian rule as the solution to the country’s woes.

And yet, the past six years of despotic rule have failed to solve the problems of unemployment, low productivity, poverty, underdevelopment, and even of illegal drugs. Neither did the Marcos version of authoritarianism solve anything. What it did was to make the country’s problems worse and to even add to them. The economic crisis driven by cronyism and Marcos’ concentrating unto himself corporate control and wealth was bad enough. But arguably as bad or worse was the long-term damage the dictatorship inflicted on Philippine culture.

The shutdown of media organizations and the arrest, detention and murder of reporters, editors, publishers, artists, poets, dramatists, film makers, students, professors, medical doctors and other professionals made the pursuit of truth, of knowledge, and of creativity dangerous undertakings, and helped create the information crisis that disinformation over social media has aggravated.

Rather than a truth commission, what the Marcos kleptocracy and its aftermath created — and what its heirs, clones, surrogates and collaborators are still peddling — is truth omission. The result is the perversion of the open and informed discourse in the public sphere that Philippine society needs in resolving such issues as, among others, escalating poverty and Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea.

EDSA 1986 was a time of great promise, much of which, besieged by several coup attempts, the Corazon Aquino administration failed to deliver. But it nevertheless removed from power a regime whose abuses, corruption, and brutality have long been established by documentary evidence and those who survived it.

But the facts hardly matter to those mercenaries in old and new media who are in the business of lying on behalf of those to whom power is the only value. What is even more distressing is that they and their antecedents’ having succeeded so well in that enterprise that this country and its people are once again threatened by six more years of gross ineptitude, bad governance, and tyranny.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Ukraine crisis and global fallout

TEKSOMOLIKA-FREEPIK

When even actor Robert de Niro chose to be partisan on Ukraine because “it’s not even about democracy, it’s about right and wrong,” it’s almost criminal to stay neutral and not do anything.

The Philippines at first chose to be a fence sitter, notwithstanding its unique status as a United Nations (UN) founding member. We have unequivocally stood against war as a means of dispute settlement among nations.

Mirroring this stance, as late as a few days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, the Philippines’ defense secretary issued a position on Ukraine, only to express that “we should not meddle in the affairs in Europe because we are not beside the borders of Ukraine.” This is like saying China would not meddle in West Philippine Sea because we don’t share common borders in the mainland.

It’s good the Philippines finally decided, on Feb. 28, to support the UN General Assembly resolution and express “explicit condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine.” The Russian invasion violated one of the core principles of the UN Charter which is the prohibition of the use of force against the territorial integrity of an independent member state. After all, there are various options to achieve pacific settlement of disputes including negotiation, inquiry, mediation, and other similar processes.

At the beginning, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed serious in settling this issue by negotiation. In early December, he had a video conversation with US President Joe Biden that geopolitical observers thought would prevent what has now become a full-scale war. Putin himself described this high-level discussion as “open, substantive and constructive.”

It turned out that while all these talks were in progress, Russia was busy building up its military presence along the border with Ukraine. The Washington Post quoted US intelligence sources in December 2021 saying Russia was believed to be capable of deploying a hundred battalion-tactical groups that could easily convert into 175,000 troops in the new year. The Financial Times also reported last year that Russia could position its war machine close to the border in no time at all.

The tension that culminated in the Russian incursion was not new, it was something that was bound to happen. Ukraine used to be part of the Soviet bloc. Russia expected it to remain aligned with Moscow or uphold neutrality.

After Ukraine’s Putin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych was deposed in 2014 and Russia annexed Crimea, some enclaves in the Donbass region were given some autonomy. The so-called Minsk agreements allowed these concessions which are hardly consistent with Ukraine’s independence.

The successors of Yanukovych, Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky, promoted Ukraine’s independence and clamped down on Putin’s point persons in Ukraine. Zelensky, in particular, started to build up Ukraine’s military capacity with NATO’s assistance. Putin equated this arrangement to NATO’s more ubiquitous presence in Ukraine.

Putin is unabashedly concerned because, as The New Yorker quoted Tatiana Stanovaya, analysis firm R. Politik head, as saying: “Russia was encircled and under threat, and was required to defend itself.” Putin would also argue that the West does not respect Russian interests. It was time Russia stopped standing around: “It is ready to act, to use force to stand up for its position.”

The Feb. 24 invasion is therefore not unexpected; no one should be surprised, especially when Putin called the allied countries’ threats of trade and financial sanctions. Earlier, Russia did not make negotiation any easier by issuing a list of impossible demands.

With actual invasion in place, Putin formalized his conditions for ending his offensive through French President Emmanuel Macron. “Putin stressed that a settlement is possible only if Russia’s legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account, including the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian state and ensuring its neutral status.”

The allied forces must have misjudged Putin.

Putin is not just doing a military offensive. He is slaughtering civilians and bombing residential areas with no critical infrastructure or military strategic importance. By some accounts, around 350 civilians including children have already perished since the invasion. The US and Europe could only impose trade and financial sanctions against Russia, extend humanitarian aid, and threaten to prohibit Russian airlines from US airspace.

Some allied countries have proposed to cut off Russia from the SWIFT (Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) bank messaging system. Russia, out of SWIFT, could generate serious global spillovers. While SWIFT does not move the money through its network of financial institutions, it moves the information about the money, Harvard’s Alexandra Vacroux clarified.

She further explained that when Iran was removed from the system many years ago, the country “lost half of their export revenues and 30% of their foreign trade.”

Ukraine will soon discover it might be fighting its own lonely battle alone. Ukraine had to mobilize even civilians to defend the nation’s capital Kyiv and other strategic areas. The US and Europe risk fighting a global war should they get embroiled in Ukraine. President Biden summed it all in his recent State of the Union address: “Let me be clear, our forces are not engaged and will not engage in conflict with Russian forces in Ukraine.”

It is clear that the US’ provision of $650 million in security assistance to Ukraine last year alone is nothing but a surrogate to US troops being actually deployed.

The heroic gambit of Biden against Putin is that sanctions and sustained international criticism will force Putin to withdraw. They also pin their hope on the big oligarchs supporting Putin to reconsider once the monkey wrench starts to work. But Putin, being Putin, might not care less even if the ruble has lost nearly a third of its value and the equities market remains closed. To him, Russian sovereignty and territorial integrity are at stake. Russia was shamelessly cheated with NATO’s eastern expansion.

Will this be a protracted engagement?

Costs to humanity have been incredibly high in Ukraine. Lives have been lost, many have been injured and forced to flee. Physical infrastructure has been destroyed in a big way. For its macroeconomic viability, the IMF and the World Bank have collaborated to support the embattled country. Emergency financing has been requested by Ukraine from the Fund under the Rapid Financing Instrument which may be acted upon by the Fund’s Executive Board by next week. Ukraine has an existing Stand-By Arrangement with an available balance of $2.2 billion. The World Bank is also preparing a $3-billion package consisting of budget support as well as for health and education.

In short, Ukraine could hardly afford to wage a war. Resisting Russia is necessary and defensive, but it will be costly in terms of logistics and Ukrainian lives. The UN should continue to press for a peaceful settlement.

Russia should also realize its equally unviable position. A 30-year member of the Fund, it has requested assistance four times. Russia is among several countries identified by the Fund as having systemically important financial sectors and therefore, any destabilizing event like its invasion of Ukraine and possible trade and financial sanctions would have serious global implications. Yes, Russia can move markets because it is one of the world’s biggest oil and wheat exporters. Ukraine’s very own Black Sea ports during this time have been closed, further squeezing global supply. But tampering with market forces will not do good to Russia as well.

But lest the US and Europe think that their sanctions will bring enlightenment to Putin, Russia’s economic trouble will ultimately wreak havoc on the global economy itself. Russia can retaliate with some force. Zero-sum war it is.

We therefore agree with Nouriel Roubini that it is incorrect to think that the Russian invasion will only have a minor and temporary economic and financial impact. His key take away is hardly debatable: “Putin’s war will strike a massive blow to global confidence at a time when fragile recovery was already entering a period of uncertainty and rising inflationary pressures. The knock-on effects from the Ukraine crisis will be anything but transitory.”

For us in the Philippines, it would be illusory to think that we can afford to be neutral. A fallout from this crisis is a fallout, it could hit us from thousands of miles away over even a longer period after the last Russian soldier marches out of Ukraine.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Wishes

The invasion of Ukraine in Europe has become a major concern for the world. We pray for peace and the protection of the affected people and their children who are in peril.

Our children, the future citizens, deserve to inherit a brighter, kinder world. The current pandemic has caused so much upheaval, distress, anxiety, confusion and pain. They need to adapt and grow stronger.

Resilience is the key to adjusting to all changes and moving forward. In this context, here is a wish list for the children.

1. A home with loving parents who will provide, guide, and care for them. That all parents will lead by example and teach spiritual and family values, and good manners. That all children will be safe from domestic violence and abuse. Many families are affected by the absence of parents who are working abroad. May they have responsible relatives who can take care of them.

2. That all children, in turn, learn to appreciate, respect and be grateful to their parents, grandparents, and caregivers. That they learn good values, manners, and traditions. That they will be aware but not be contaminated by the materialistic world that they are exposed to.

3. Good health and protection from the pandemic. That children in marginalized and remote areas will have proper nourishment, medical and dental care to grow strong and healthy. That the essential vaccines will be available to them as soon as possible.

4. Quality education. Children need regular and affordable access to the internet. Online learning has been the new norm. That the public school system will have adequate support from government, the private sector and the telecom companies. That dedicated teachers will continue to teach despite the challenges of the prolonged crisis. That our complete factual history be taught in schools.

5. A pollution-free environment — clean air, pure water, open fields and parks with trees and flowers. That they may appreciate nature and learn how to protect the seas, rivers, lakes, and forests.

6. A comprehensive sports program for national, regional, and international competitions. The kids will learn the values of friendly competition and the art of winning and losing gracefully.

7. A society free of gender discrimination that will encourage girls and boys to aspire to become leaders with integrity in their chosen professions. That they will have the resources and opportunities to attain their goals and give back to their communities and country.

8. A progressive national arts and culture program and outreach projects to expand and enrich the consciousness of children.

9. More education grants for scholarships for deserving students at all levels. That the grants from corporate foundations would include adequate living and clothing allowances.

10. Quality and balanced programming on national television with more educational shows (such as those shown on the award-winning Knowledge Channel.) That producers will stop the exploitation of aspiring young performers in their noontime shows. That there would be more shows on history, science and environment.

11. An accelerated program for science, math, engineering, and internet technology to equip all future graduates with skills to compete in the international markets.

12. A stable economy. More jobs and livelihood programs so that children can go to school and concentrate on their studies.

13. A country with visionary national leaders — hardworking, honest public officials who serve with integrity, wisdom, and heart.

14. A safe, crime-free, drug-free, abuse-free environment. That all kids will be protected from the menace of predators, incest, and physical and emotional abuse.

15. That children in armed conflict areas will not be used as soldiers or couriers.

16. Freedom of expression. The right to be themselves. That adults realize that children need respect and are entitled to be heard. Open communication with parents and teachers.

17. Innocence. A happy childhood and the chance to enjoy being a child. Time to play, study, rest, and develop. Time to grow up at his own pace.

 

Maria Victoria Rufino is an artist, writer and businesswoman. She is president and executive producer of Maverick Productions.

mavrufino@gmail.com

Sexual mutilations

FREEPIK

For some reason, it’s now a thing for progressives to push sex reassignment for children. While the general minimum age is 18 years of age, there have been moves to allow such procedures for supposed transgenders as early as 16.

Enter Texas, which intends to prosecute the performing of sex reassignment surgery for children, treating the same as “child abuse.” State governor Greg Abbott, citing an opinion by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, pointed out that it is “against the law to subject Texas children to a wide variety of elective procedures for gender transitioning, including reassignment surgeries that can cause sterilization, mastectomies, removals of otherwise healthy body parts, and administration of puberty-blocking drugs or supraphysiologic doses of testosterone or estrogen.”

The concern really is the possible damage done to those undergoing such surgeries: “The most thorough follow-up of sex-reassigned people — extending over 30 years and conducted in Sweden, where the culture is strongly supportive of the transgendered — documents their lifelong mental unrest. Ten to 15 years after surgical reassignment, the suicide rate of those who had undergone sex-reassignment surgery rose to 20 times that of comparable peers” (“Sex reassignment surgery doesn’t work. Here’s the evidence” by Ryan Anderson, The Heritage Foundation, March 2018).

John Hopkins University’s revered psychiatry professor Dr. Paul McHugh pointed out that “Transgendered men do not become women, nor do transgendered women become men” and, in fact, “sex change is physically impossible, it frequently does not provide the long-term wholeness and happiness that people seek.” (“Transgenderism: A Pathogenic Meme,” Dr. Paul McHugh, Public Discourse: The Journal of The Witherspoon Institute, June 10, 2015)

Governor Abbot relied on the Texas Family Code, particularly on its definition of “abuse.” There is, however, also the Stop Female Genital Mutilation Act of 2020, which criminalized “female genital mutilation” (or FGM), which is commonly referred to also as “female circumcision” or “female genital cutting,” usually for cultural or religious reasons. Then US President Donald Trump, who signed the law, also labeled FGM “a form of child abuse, gender discrimination, and violence.”

In the Philippines, a 2020 study (“Exploratory Action-Research on Female Genital Mutilation Practices in the Philippines,” Professor Aminoding Limpao of Mindanao State University, et al) found a staggering four out of five Bangsamoro females that participated in the study underwent FGM. And there is no law particularly regulating sex reassignment surgery for the young. One can only presume that reaching the age of majority (i.e., 18) is needed to go through that procedure.

Nevertheless, considering the psychological damage that such surgeries can bring to those that undergo them, the government may want to seriously look into the matter of prohibiting such. It would be good for Congress to pass legislation criminalizing sex reassignment surgery for children, as well as FGM, but the Executive branch still has legal instruments with which to prosecute.

There is Art. 262 (“mutilation”) of the Revised Penal Code, which punishes “any person who shall intentionally mutilate another by depriving him, either totally or partially, of some essential organ for reproduction.” There is also RA 9745 (the “Anti-Torture Act of 2009”), which deals with the “mutilation or amputation of the essential parts of the body such as the genitalia.”

Then there is the case of Silverio vs. Republic (G.R. No. 174689), where the Supreme Court — quite correctly — ruled that while surgery may alter a person’s “body and appearance through the intervention of modern surgery, no law authorizes the change of entry as to sex in the civil registry for that reason.” The Court went on to say (again correctly) that to recognize the sex change “will have serious and wide-ranging legal and public policy consequences.” First is its effect on marriage, which is a “special contract of permanent union between a man and a woman.” Furthermore, “there are various laws which apply particularly to women such as the provisions of the Labor Code on employment of women, certain felonies under the Revised Penal Code and the presumption of survivorship … These laws underscore the public policy in relation to women which could be substantially affected” if sex changes were recognized.

Because, as the Supreme Court wisely points out (in a great example of rejecting judicial legislation), “the sex of a person is determined at birth” and is “immutable.” Thus, “sex is defined as ‘the sum of peculiarities of structure and function that distinguish a male from a female’ or ‘the distinction between male and female.’ Female is ‘the sex that produces ova or bears young’ and male is ‘the sex that has organs to produce spermatozoa for fertilizing ova.’”

There is, however, that interesting case of Aguirre vs. DoJ (G.R. No. 170723), where the Court tackled the issue of “does vasectomy deprive a man, totally or partially, of some essential organ of reproduction,” thus categorizing the same as a “mutilation” punishable under the Revised Penal Code? The answer is no, the Supreme Court for some reason saying that while a vasectomy denies a man his power of reproduction, such procedure does not deprive him, “either totally or partially, of some essential organ for reproduction.”

Ok then.

 

Jemy Gatdula is a senior fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence

https://www.facebook.com/jigatdula/

Twitter@jemygatdula

Human rights org develops method to estimate prevalence of online sexual exploitation of children

The International Justice Mission (IJM), a global organization focused on human rights, has developed a research approach to estimate the prevalence of the trafficking to produce child sexual exploitation material. The method is set for implementation in the Philippines this year.

“This is a remarkable win for everyone working and desiring to end this crime against children. We now have the methodology to measure the prevalence of online sexual exploitation of children that previously was not available,” said Samson R. Inocencio, Jr., Regional Vice-President of IJM’s programs against online sexual exploitation of children, in an official statement. 

“This was made possible through a remarkable group of advisers from the Philippine government and global stakeholders, including the world-leading research team from Nottingham Rights Lab,” he added. 

The method was developed as a result of IJM’s Scale of Harm project, launched in March 2021. It convened a council of 24 experts and researchers from organizations across technology, financial, government, and non-government child protection sectors.

To develop the method, the council combined national household surveys using the Network Scale-up Method (NSUM), a research method that estimates the prevalence of hard-to-reach populations, with data science analysis of a range of secondary datasets. 

“Ultimately, successful child protection interventions should lead to fewer children being harmed in the first place. Scale of Harm proves that through global collaboration, we can collectively develop world-leading standards of data measurement to measure violence reduction,” said John E. Tanagho, executive director of IJM’s Center to End Online Sexual Exploitation of Children.

IJM also emphasized that the trafficking of children to produce child sexual exploitation materials (referred to as TCSEM) is a form of online exploitation where “offenders, typically in Western countries, pay adults to livestream the sexual abuse of children in real time, or to produce new abuse photos and videos.”

In the Philippines, the Local Survivor Network (LSN) provided feedback and input for the project. Its goal is to create a network that keeps survivors safe and empowers them to become advocates of enabling justice systems that protect the vulnerable. 

Crystal (a pseudonym), a member of LSN, extended her gratitude to those involved in the project: “Thank you for sharing your expertise and ideas in order to assist us in determining the prevalence of this crime … I hope our efforts lead to the rescue of more survivors or vulnerable individuals from the online sexual exploitation of children.” 

IJM is open to collaboration with internet service providers, electronic service providers, financial sector companies, and others who are interested in implementing the Scale of Harm methodology in the Philippines in 2022. — Bronte H. Lacsamana

EXPLAINER | Why $100 oil could hurt the energy transition more than it helps

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Schmucki from Pixabay

WASHINGTON – The surge in crude oil prices past $100 a barrel has raised a big question: Will this latest spike in the notoriously volatile oil market help to speed the global transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources to fight climate change?

The answer is probably not.

On the one hand, energy analysts say, soaring prices for gasoline, diesel and other products made from crude oil LCOc1CLc1 will drive cost-conscious consumers more quickly into electric vehicles and boost investment in competing clean technologies like hydrogen.

But at the same time, these high prices will also drive more drilling of oil and gas around the globe, as fossil fuel companies rush to cash in, sowing the seeds for the boom to turn to bust. That will make oil abundant and affordable again.

That is a pattern that the world has seen repeatedly in the oil age, and one that has punished clean energy investors harshly in the past.

Here are some of the arguments on either side of the debate:

 

CONSUMER SHIFT

When fossil fuel prices rise, consumers start to take electric vehicles and clean energy alternatives more seriously – not just for their environmental benefits but in hopes of eventually saving cash. It is a scenario that played out after oil nearly broke $150 a barrel in 2008, giving a boost to electric vehicle sales.

Global sales of electric vehicles are growing, particularly in China and Europe, and to a lesser extent, the United States.

And the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the industrialized world’s energy watchdog, has said rising oil prices could increase the pace of electrification of the transport sector and also accelerate the transition to renewable power sources like solar and wind, whose costs have dropped in recent years.

But at the same time, sales of gas-guzzling sports utility vehicles in 2021, a year of steadily rising oil prices, were on track to hit 45% of global car sales, which would set a record in both volume and market share, according to the IEA.

That SUV demand canceled out the efficiency gains of EVs and has raised questions about the degree to which high oil prices influence the transition.

Analysts also point out that cars and trucks only burn about 20-25% of the world’s petroleum, with other sectors such as manufacturing, marine transport, aviation and agriculture making very few gains in fuel efficiency.

“We have not seen any sign of energy transition yet,” in those sectors, said Claudio Galimberti, an analyst at Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy.

 

HIGH PRICES SPUR DRILLING

There is another dynamic at play. For decades oil has been caught in a boom and bust cycle: High prices spur investment in oil and gas drilling which, in turn, leads to lower prices that increase demand for oil. There is little reason to think this time would be any different.

In the United States, for example, the world’s largest oil producer, drillers are already preparing to boost output. U.S. oil production is expected to soar next year to an all-time high above the 2019 record of 12.25 million barrels per day before peaking at 13.88 million bpd in 2034, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

High prices would only accelerate this trend, not slow it.

Most of the world’s oil reserves, meanwhile, about 65%, are controlled by national oil companies fully or partially owned by state governments.

The governments of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and Iraq all quickly get richer when oil prices rise because they are among the world’s lowest cost producers of crude, a trend researchers say deepens commitments to the petro-economy.

“High oil prices prolong the idea even with the most high-cost producers among the national oil companies that they can survive the energy transition, rather than work on pivoting away from oil into clean energy,” said Paasha Mahdavi, a political science professor at University of California, Santa Barbara.

They also reinforce the notion that reinvesting the society’s wealth in oil is “optimal for balancing government budgets today and in the future,” he said.

There is some nuance, though: Saudi Arabia, for example, is leading an effort to generate hydrogen produced with green energy like wind and solar at its mega city of the future NEOM, a project that it is funding with petrodollars.

“Higher oil prices do allow low cost petro states to continue making investments in some of these decarbonized solutions, but only among this small group,” said Mahdavi.

 

VOLATILITY KILLS COMPETITION

This tendency to meet high prices with increased supply leads to another problem for clean energy: volatility.

Rapid swings in prices make it hard for investors to plan and can even kill some alternative energy projects, said Deborah Gordon, who leads the oil and gas solutions initiative at RMI, a Colorado-based research group on energy innovation and efficiency.

“The much bigger risk for the energy transition is volatility,” Gordon said. “It’s not high prices or low prices, it’s this ongoing shift.” – Reuters

App offers professional pasabuy service for malls

An app, mymall, that offers a pasabuy service for 39 malls in Metro Manilawas launched on March 2. The Philippine quick commerce company has professional shoppers trained to shop in its customers’ stead, according tomymall co-founder Shahab Shabibi.

Mr. Shabibi, who also started the errands app MyKuya, said that there is no limit to the number of stores within a mall one can request a shopper to make a purchase from. Glorietta, Uptown Mall, SM Mall of Asia, Araneta Mall, SM San Lazaro, Alabang Town Center, and Festival Mall are some of the malls included in the app. 

“Whenever I go to the mall, I drop by the grocery, the pharmacy… People typically shop in two to four stores [when they go to malls]. We’re here to make the same thing happen,” he said. 

The app’s professional shoppers, who are a mix of gig workers and full-time employees, come from the service providers and manpower agencies the company partners with. 

Among this group are former merchandisers and promodizers – people who worked in malls before, were laid off because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and have now been trained to know which exact items to pick for the app’s customers. 

Other features of the service include a single fee of P79 (sans markups or hidden charges), in-app voice and video calls with one’s personal shopper to check for updates, and the option to have the purchased items delivered later in the day. 

“It doesn’t take an hour to place an order. Just give your list the way you would, then you will get it exactly that way,” Mr. Shabibi said as he received several items that he bought through the app during the hour-long press conference. 

Payments are coursed through the app’s MyKoins, which unifies payment methods like credit cards and e-wallets into a single system.

The maximum weight per transaction is pegged at 15 kilos for now.

“We look forward to adding delivery methods like cars or vans,” Mr. Shabibi said, noting that the app was already preparing to expand to the greater Manila area, Cebu, and Davao.

Critical to mymall’s growth is its goal to “delight” customers. 

“If people love the service, if they see how much money and time they save, they’ll be telling other people,” said Mr. Shabibi. “We will grow if our customers want us to.” — Patricia B. Mirasol

First Atkins Holdings Corp. unveils largest cold storage facility in South Luzon

In photo (from left to right) are Deputy CEO Hillary Kay L. Ang, DTI Assistant Secretary Atty. Claire Cabochan, Hon. Mayor of Naic Junio Dualan, Deputy Director-General and PEZA Zone Administrator Atty. Norma Tañag, First Atkins Holdings Corp. Chairman & CEO Engr. Gabriel J. Ang, PNB Capital President Gerry B. Valencia, Ms. Lulu Chua, Rolando J. Ang, Management Trainee Gavin Christian L. Ang, Level & Details Devp. Corp. President Marissa Ducat, Atkins Group COO Jun DeAcosta, and Atkins Group CFO Myk Gamora.

Starting its expansion in strategic agricultural areas in the Philippines, First Atkins Holdings Corp. (FAHC) launched its newest cold storage facility in South Luzon that aims to help address food security.

Last Feb. 28, 2022, the company held a ground-breaking ceremony on its sixth cold storage facility, housed in a one-hectare property in Cavite Technopark in Naic, Cavite — an industrial zone owned and developed by listed company Ayala Logistics Holdings.

The said cold storage, costing about a billion pesos, has the capacity to store up to 14,000,000 kilograms (kgs) or 14,000 metric tons (MT), making the facility the largest in the South Luzon area. Also, the company partnered with the local Public Employment Service Office (PESO) to bring in more than 100 jobs, which is hoped to help propel the local economy in the area.

The new cold storage is part of FAHC’s goal in the next 10 years to build additional five more cold storage strategically located in the rich-producing agricultural areas in the country. For FAHC, building more cold storages is their solution to food security, which has been regarded a long issue due to scarcity of cold storage facility that can house produced agricultural products.

FAHC, through subsidiary Atkins Import and Export Resources, Inc., has been in the business of importation and distribution of meat product since 2006. Prior to the new facility in Cavite, the company operates five cold storage facilities in Meycauayan, Bulacan, which altogether have a total combined capacity of 13,000,000 kgs or 13,000 MT. The new facility in Cavite is projected to increase the total combined capacity to about 65,000,000 kgs or 65,000 MT.

In addition, FAHC is currently working on building a facility powered by a sustainable energy source like solar power through another subsidiary, First Atkins Power Gen Corp. The proposed solar power facility is expected to generate at least one megawatt, which is about 50% of supply requirement. Once operational, the facility is expected to significantly reduce carbon footprint and lower cost of operation.

 

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