In lieu of government data, investment firm Carlyle reports subdued US hiring

October 8, 2025 | 10:02 am

Wall-Street — The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, March 9, 2020. — REUTERS/CARLO ALLEGRI/FILE PHOTO

NEW YORK – Carlyle Group released its own measure of US economic data on Tuesday, including a sharply lower estimate for September jobs growth despite rising economic output, to a market left wanting official releases because of the government shutdown.

The global investment firm estimated that US employers added just 17,000 jobs last month, far below the 54,000 expected in the nonfarm payrolls report, which had been scheduled for release last week.

The firm’s internal indicators showed GDP growth running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September, a 3.8% drop in energy prices, and a 3.3% increase in prices for services, excluding shelter.

‘DISCONNECT’ BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT, ECONOMY
“If you look solely at implied payroll employment growth, you’d think this was an economy on the cusp of recession or that has already fallen into recession,” Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle, told Reuters.

“We have seen a big rebound in household consumption and ongoing business spending fueled by the AI boom. It’s a really interesting time to see the disconnect between employment and broader measures of economic health.”

With official statistics delayed, investors are increasingly turning to alternative sources for real-time insights, and data-rich firms are positioning themselves as stopgap providers of economic intelligence.

The US government shutdown has entered its seventh day and is showing little sign of resolution.

Private data providers are seeing a sharp uptick in demand. Research website Bigdata.com saw a 175% surge in usage after the shutdown, its founder, Armando Gonzalez, said in an interview.

“When the official data channels go dark, investors are going to continue going for alternatives,” Gonzalez said.

Carlyle drew the data from its portfolio of 277 companies, which employ just under 730,000 people, and 694 real estate investments.

Thomas said the boom in spending on artificial intelligence was also out of step with the rest of the economy.

“All the oxygen is being sucked by AI,” Thomas said, pointing to booming demand for X-rays and other key semiconductor components. This growth is “uncorrelated,” he added. “It reflects the secular technological shock.”

Other private data released in recent days also point to weak hiring. Job search firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said last week planned hiring in September hit its lowest since 2009, when the industry was reeling from the financial crisis. — Reuters

Philippines’ August jobless rate declines

October 8, 2025 | 9:39 am

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

The Philippines’ unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in August, reflecting stronger hiring momentum as the labor market recovered from midyear slack.

The number of jobless Filipinos fell to 2.03 million from 2.59 million in July and 2.07 million a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority said on Wednesday.

The employment rate improved to 96.1% from 94.7% in July, with total employed persons rising to 50.1 million. The jobless rate was 4% a year earlier and 5.3% in July.

The labor force participation rate climbed to 65.1% from 60.7% in July, equivalent to 52.13 million Filipinos aged 15 and older either working or seeking work.

On average, employees worked 41 hours a week, up from 40.7 hours in August last year.

The service sector remained the country’s biggest employer, accounting for 61.5% of total jobs, followed by agriculture at 20.4% and industry at 18.1%. Wholesale and retail trade, agriculture and forestry, and construction were the top employing subsectors.

Underemployment eased to 10.7% from 14.8% in July, with 5.38 million workers saying they wanted more hours or an additional job. Of the underemployed workers in August, 62.4% worked less than 40 hours a week, while 37.6% worked 40 hours or more a week.

Youth employment also improved, with the employment rate among those aged 15 to 24 rising to 88.3% from 81.9% in July, the local statistics agency said

Puregold CinePanalo 2026 short-lists 33 out of 203 full-length entries

October 8, 2025 | 9:30 am

The Puregold CinePanalo Film Festival has announced the 33 short-listed full-length films from 203 entries submitted by emerging, established, and even iconic local filmmakers.

Of the 33 films entering the next stage of selection, only seven will receive the record-breaking P5-million production grant that stands as the biggest, to date, in Philippine film festival history.

“This has been the most competitive year of the Puregold CinePanalo yet as we drew a wide variety of both up-and-coming and veteran directors,” said Ivy Hayagan-Piedad, Puregold senior marketing manager and festival chair. “With the removal of genre and narrative restrictions, we received the boldest and most creative pool of applications. We appreciated seeing the complexity and fearlessness of more unconventional stories that still rang true with genuine, lived experiences.”

For Ms. Hayagan-Piedad, the overwhelming number of applicants shows how the Puregold CinePanalo has become an institution in the local filmmaking industry. “We received 203 applications this year, nearly double the 125 entries submitted in our inaugural year. We are immensely grateful for the support of the local community of filmmakers, producers, and students that have entrusted their dream projects to us and helped us grow in credibility year on year.”

The Top 33 films in the full-length category are as follows:

1 of 6

The filmmakers behind the Top 33 will go on to submit pitch decks to the festival’s selection committee. From there, a short list of 15 filmmakers will pitch directly to festival officials for the chance to be part of the final festival lineup of seven.

The final lineup of films will screen at the 2026 Puregold CinePanalo Film Festival at the Gateway Cineplex 18 on Aug. 7 to 18, 2026. These will join the ranks of internationally acclaimed films that have premiered at the Puregold CinePanalo such as Kurt Soberano’s Under a Piaya Moon, Sigrid Bernardo’s Pushcart Tales, and TM Malones’ Salum.

Meanwhile, submissions for the festival’s student shorts category are ongoing. Participants must turn in their applications at https://tinyurl.com/PCPFFShorts before 11:59 p.m. on Nov. 25, 2025.

For further inquiries, applicants may email thesecretariat@cinepanalo.com or message its official Facebook page @puregoldcinepanalo.

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Hamas says on war anniversary it’s ready to reach a Gaza deal, but conditions remain

October 8, 2025 | 9:03 am

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt – Hamas said on Tuesday it was ready to reach a deal to end the war in Gaza based on President Donald Trump’s plan but still has demands, as Qatar’s prime minister and senior US mediators headed to Egypt to join indirect negotiations between the Palestinian militant group and Israel.

On the second anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza war, Trump expressed optimism about progress toward a Gaza deal. A US team including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and his Middle East envoy during his first term, left for the talks.

“I think there’s a possibility that we could have peace in the Middle East” beyond just Gaza, the US president told reporters in the Oval Office.

A source close to the talks said they had adjourned for the day and the atmosphere had been better than on Monday. Negotiations on Wednesday would be a decisive indicator of whether progress was possible given the presence of the senior mediators, the source said.

Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani of Qatar, which has been one of the key mediators, will join the talks on Wednesday, an official told Reuters, “with the aim of pushing forward the Gaza ceasefire plan and hostage release agreement”.

On the second day of talks in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, top Hamas leader Khalil Al-Hayya told Egyptian state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV the group had come “to engage in serious and responsible negotiations.”

He said Hamas was ready to reach a deal, yet it needed a “guarantee” to end the war and ensure “it is not repeated”.

According to Gaza authorities, some 67,000 people have been killed and Gaza devastated since the October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militants on Israel. Israel says 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken back to Gaza as hostages on that day.

The talks appeared to hold the most promise yet of ending the war. But officials on all sides urged caution over the prospects for a rapid agreement, as Israelis remembered the bloodiest single day for Jews since the Holocaust and Gazans voiced hope for an end to the suffering brought by the war.

Even if a deal is clinched, questions will linger over who will govern Gaza and rebuild it, and who will finance the huge cost of reconstruction. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have ruled out any role for Hamas.

HAMAS SETS OUT CONDITIONS
Trump met Witkoff and Kushner, who will join the talks on Wednesday, for an update on the negotiations before they departed for Egypt, a senior US official said. They discussed issues such as ensuring the safety of the hostages and security guarantees, the official added.

“The (Hamas) movement’s delegation participating in the current negotiations in Egypt is working to overcome all obstacles to reaching an agreement that meets the aspirations of our people in Gaza,” senior Hamas official Fawzi Barhoum said in a televised statement.
He said a deal must ensure an end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip – conditions that Israel has never accepted. Israel, for its part, wants Hamas to disarm, something the group rejects.

Hamas wants a permanent, comprehensive ceasefire, a complete pullout of Israeli forces and the immediate start of a comprehensive reconstruction process under the supervision of a Palestinian “national technocratic body”, he said.

Underlining the obstacles at talks, an umbrella of Palestinian factions including Hamas issued a statement vowing a “resistance stance by all means” and saying “no one has the right to cede the weapons of the Palestinian people”.

Netanyahu did not immediately comment on the status of the talks. But in a statement on X, he told Israelis they were in “fateful days of decision.”

“We will continue to act to achieve all the war’s objectives: the return of all the hostages, the elimination of Hamas’s rule, and the assurance that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel,” he said.

US officials have suggested they want to initially focus talks on a halt to the fighting and the logistics of how the hostages and Palestinian prisoners in Israel would be freed.
In the absence of a ceasefire, Israel has pressed on with its offensive in Gaza, which has increased its international isolation.

Opponents of Israel’s actions in Gaza held protests in Sydney, Australia and a handful of European cities on the anniversary of Hamas’ attack, despite denunciations by some politicians who said such marches risked glorifying violence.

HOPES OF A BREAKTHROUGH BY CIVILIANS ON BOTH SIDES
On the anniversary, some Israelis visited the places that were hit hardest that day.

Orit Baron stood at the site of the Nova music festival in southern Israel beside a photo of her daughter Yuval, who was killed with her fiance Moshe Shuva. They were among 364 people who were shot, bludgeoned or burned to death there.

“They were supposed to get married on February 14th, Valentine’s Day,” said Baron. “They are buried next to each other because they were never separated.”

Israelis are hoping the talks will soon lead to the release of the 48 hostages still held in Gaza, 20 of whom are believed to still be alive.

“It’s like an open wound, the hostages, I can’t believe it’s been two years and they are still not home,” said Hilda Weisthal, 43.

In Gaza, 49-year-old Palestinian Mohammed Dib hoped for the end of a conflict that has caused a humanitarian disaster and displaced many Palestinians multiple times.

“It’s been two years that we are living in fear, horror, displacement and destruction,” he said.– Reuters

Philippine inflation quickens to 6-month high in September

October 8, 2025 | 12:34 am

Vegetable-kadiawa — Vegetable prices spiked in September as typhoons and floods affected several provinces. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Katherine K. Chan

HEADLINE INFLATION accelerated to a six-month high in September, mainly due to costlier fuel and vegetables, but remained below the central bank’s 2-4% target, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Tuesday.

Preliminary data from the PSA showed the consumer price index quickened to 1.7% in September from 1.5% in August, but eased from 1.9% in September 2024.

This was the fastest inflation rate since 1.8% in March.

It was also within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.5-2.3% forecast for the month, but below the 1.9% median estimate in a BusinessWorld poll last week.

September also marked the seventh straight month that inflation settled below the BSP’s 2-4% target.

In the nine months to September, inflation averaged 1.7%, easing from 3.4% in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of food and fuel, eased to 2.6% in September from 2.7% in August. Still, it was faster than the 2.4% clip a year earlier.

Core inflation averaged 2.4% in the nine-month period, slowing from 3.1% in the same period last year.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said the September inflation print was “not a surprise” as recent typhoons drove vegetable prices higher.

“This September, there were no surprises because, of course, we expected the large increase to be in vegetables, but we already saw that in August; it just continued into the month of September,” Mr. Mapa said in mixed English and Filipino. “This is still the effect of the flooding and typhoons we experienced in July. There were really many typhoons then.”

According to the PSA, the transport index was the main driver of faster inflation in September, picking up to 1% from a 0.3% decline the previous month. In September, gasoline declined at a slower pace of 0.9% from 6.1% in the previous month, while diesel quickened to 5.1% from a 0.8% fall.

The heavily weighted food and nonalcoholic beverage index rose to 1% in September, picking up from 0.9% in August.

Food inflation quickened to 0.8% in September from 0.6% the previous month, but slower than 1.4% a year ago.

This was mainly driven by a year-on-year rise in vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 19.4% in September from 10% in August. This was the fastest pace in vegetable inflation in nine months or since 21.1% in January.

On the other hand, corn saw a slower annual decline of 4.5% from 11.8% in August.

“What we really saw were rain and flooding, particularly in our vegetable-producing provinces,” Mr. Mapa said. “So, this had an impact in August and continued into September.”

“We see that this may continue in the coming months because we have had storms again in the past month. It is possible that our inflation rate will remain somewhat elevated,” he added.

Last month, typhoons Mirasol, Ragasa (locally known as Nando) and Bualoi (Opong), coupled with the southwest monsoon, brought heavy rains and flooding in parts of the country.

“The slight uptick in inflation underscores the sensitivity of domestic food prices to supply disruptions,” Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said in a statement. “We are working closely with various agencies to stabilize supply, keep essential goods affordable, and safeguard household welfare.”

RICE DEFLATION CONTINUES
Meanwhile, the decline in rice prices moderated in September, with the annual rate easing to -16.9% from -17% in August. September marked the ninth straight month of rice deflation.

“Rice prices generally continued to decline due to adequate supply, lower international rice prices, and government measures to stabilize prices,” the BSP said in a statement.

The average price of local regular milled rice slipped by 1.02% month on month to P37.79 per kilo in the last week of September from P38.18 per kilo, based on data from the Agriculture department.

Well-milled rice also dropped by nearly 1% to P43.10 per kilo from P43.52, while special rice rose by 0.2% to P57.10 per kilo from P56.99.

On Sept. 1, the National Government implemented a 60-day import ban on regular and well-milled rice to address falling farmgate prices of unmilled rice.

On the other hand, meat inflation slowed to 6% from 7.1% in August, while fish and other seafood prices also cooled to 7.9% from 9.5%.

Meanwhile, inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) slowed to 2.7% in September from 2.9% in August. However, it was quicker than 1.7% in September 2024.

Outside NCR, inflation accelerated to 1.5% from 1.1% in August, but slower than the 2% clip a year ago.

Central Visayas remained the region with the highest inflation rate at 4.1%, while the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao saw the biggest decline in prices at -1.5%.

For the bottom 30% of income households, inflation saw a slower annual decline to -0.2% from -0.6% in August. The nine-month average stood at 0.3% from 4.6% a year ago.

OUTLOOK
Despite emerging risks to inflation, the central bank said inflation will likely average below the 2-4% target this year, mainly due to easing rice prices.

“Nonetheless, higher rice tariffs and rising global food prices could raise supply-side pressures over the policy horizon. Meanwhile, higher electricity rates could be offset by expectations of subdued global oil prices owing to a stable production outlook,” the BSP said.

The BSP sees inflation averaging 1.7% this year.

Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said the below-expectation inflation print could prompt the BSP to cut interest rates on Thursday.

“Growth has been especially uncertain lately and we think that the BSP would be delivering a cut to pre-empt downside risks to growth in general,” he said. “So, lower-than-expected (inflation) gives more reason for BSP to cut now and not run the risk of being behind the curve.”

However, Chinabank Research sees emerging inflation risks as a signal for the central bank to pause at its upcoming meeting.

“While overall price growth is still expected to remain low for the rest of the year, increased upside risks to the inflation outlook could prompt the BSP to adopt a more cautious stance and keep interest rates on hold at Thursday’s policy meeting,” it said in a note.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said developments in rice supply and transport costs will continue to drive inflation in the coming months.

“In the coming months, inflation may continue to edge higher due to risks such as weather-related supply disruptions, holiday spending, the global oil price situation, and a weak (peso) that could raise import costs,” he said in a Viber message.

A BusinessWorld poll showed 10 of 16 analysts expect the Monetary Board to keep rates steady at 5% on Thursday.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said the policy rate is now at their “Goldilocks” rate or “sweet spot” for both inflation and output. However, he said last month that they are open to cutting rates again this October if the country’s economy weakens due to slow demand.

Philippines’ dollar reserves jump to $108.8 billion at end-September

October 8, 2025 | 12:33 am

US dollar bills are seen on a light table at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington in this Nov. 14, 2014 file photo. — REUTERS

THE PHILIPPINES’ dollar reserves rose to its highest in 11 months at end-September, driven by higher global gold prices, earnings from the central bank’s investments and the National Government’s foreign currency deposits.

Preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that gross international reserves (GIR) reached $108.805 billion as of end-September, up 1.6% from $107.098 billion in August.

This was the highest GIR level in nearly a year or since the $111.084 billion seen in October 2024.

However, it was 3.5% lower than $112.707 billion in September last year.

“The Philippines’ gross international reserves rose in September 2025 due to higher global gold prices, income from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ investments, and foreign currency deposits by the National Government with the BSP,” the BSP said in a statement.

Dollar reserves are the central bank’s foreign assets held mostly as investments in foreign-issued securities, foreign exchange and monetary gold, among others.

These are supplemented by claims to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the form of reserve position in the fund and special drawing rights (SDRs).

BSP data showed the level of dollar reserves in the nine-month period is enough to cover about 3.6 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

It is also equivalent to 7.3 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income, well above the three-month standard.

“The latest GIR level provides a robust external liquidity buffer,” the central bank said in a statement.

Ample foreign exchange buffers protect the country from market volatility and ensure that it is capable of paying its debts in the event of an economic downturn.

The BSP’s foreign investments inched up by 0.3% to $87.243 billion as of end-September from $86.987 billion in the previous month. However, it went down by 8.4% from $95.199 billion in the same period a year ago.

Central bank data also showed that its gold holdings were valued at $16.385 billion, jumping by 12.8% from the $14.523 billion seen at end-August and by 50.9% from $10.86 billion last year.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange holdings slumped by 44.9% to $505.1 million in September from $916.1 million in August and by 75.3% from $2.042 billion a year earlier.

The Philippines’ reserve position in the IMF edged up by 0.2% to $737.7 million at end-September from $736.4 million in August. It climbed by 0.9% from $731.1 million in September 2024.

SDRs — or the amount the Philippines can tap from the IMF’s reserve currency basket — were unchanged month on month at $3.935 billion. Year on year, it was 1.5% higher than $3.875 billion.

The BSP also reported that net international reserves inched up by 1.6% to $108.8 billion as of end-September from $107.1 billion as of end-August.

Net international reserves refer to the difference between the BSP’s reserve assets (GIR) and reserve liabilities, including short-term foreign debt, and credit and loans from the IMF.

“This GIR uptrend appears to be above expectations as the end-September GIR already exceeds the BSP’s year-end target of $105 (billion),” Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Angelo B. Taningco said in an e-mail.

However, Mr. Taningco noted that a weakening peso could pose risks to the country’s dollar reserves in the coming months.

“Potential risks on GIR in upcoming months include persistent peso depreciation pressures induced by foreign capital outflows and higher (United States) Treasury yields,” he said.

At end-September, the local currency closed at P58.196 per US dollar, falling by P1.066 from its P57.13 finish on Aug. 29.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort also noted a $411-million month-on-month decline in the central bank’s foreign exchange holdings amid the foreign exchange market volatility and “political noises.”

Earlier this month, the BSP revised its GIR projection for this year to $105 billion, slightly higher than its previous forecast of $104 billion. In 2026, it expects GIR to reach $106 billion. — Katherine K. Chan

World Bank keeps PHL GDP forecasts unchanged

October 8, 2025 | 12:32 am

Public market-shopper — People shop for goods in Divisoria, Manila. — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

THE WORLD BANK maintained its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for this year and 2026, amid heightened uncertainty and slowing global growth.

In its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender kept its growth outlook for the Philippines at 5.3% this year and 5.4% for 2026, unchanged from its projections in June.

These forecasts are below the government’s 5.5-6.5% target for this year, and 6-7% for next year.

The Philippines is expected to be the region’s fourth fastest-growing economy in the East Asia and Pacific this year, trailing Vietnam (6.6%), Mongolia (5.9%), and Palau (5.7%).

For 2026, the Philippines is projected to post the third-fastest growth after Vietnam (6.1%) and Mongolia (5.6%).

The country’s growth forecast is above the regional average, with East Asia and the Pacific expected to expand by 4.8% this year and 4.3% in 2026.

“East Asia and Pacific region growth remains relatively high, but it is slowing down,” World Bank East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said in a virtual briefing on Tuesday.

“At the same time, domestic policy choices, especially the reliance in some countries on fiscal stimulus rather than structural reform, are likely to shape near and longer-term growth outcomes. Turning to the reasons why growth is slowing down, we identify three main factors — trade restrictions, increased economic policy uncertainty, and slowing global growth,” he said.

The US imposed a 19% tariff rate for Philippine-made goods starting Aug. 7.

Mr. Mattoo noted that most economies in the region now face higher tariffs, but the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam are less affected since electronics and semiconductors are exempted from tariffs for now.

The World Bank noted that economies in the region have lowered tariffs exclusively on US imports and pledged to increase purchases of specific American goods, in response to higher tariff rates.

“In some cases, countries have engaged with other trading partners to pursue greater diversification of their trade. These actions may be costly but necessary in an uncertain trading environment,” it said.

The Philippine government has vowed to adopt a zero-tariff scheme on selected US goods, but the move could cost the government P27 billion to P30 billion in forgone revenues. However, negotiations with the US have yet to be finalized.

RISE OF DIGITAL INFORMALITY
Meanwhile, the Philippines is seeing a shift in informal work from agriculture to digital platforms like ride-hailing applications, the World Bank said. However, poor education may prevent workers from capitalizing on tech-driven jobs, it added.

“Now there is the new informality, which is informality of these new platform-based services, which are growing in Thailand and in the Philippines,” Mr. Mattoo said.

However, Mr. Mattoo said regulation and taxation of the informal sector can be reformed to ensure fewer people are marginalized from the economy.

“I think the Philippines is in a position to benefit (from emerging jobs due to technology) if it deals with the huge deficit in human capital,” he said.

“It is stunning that a country that punches above its weight in services, exports, still has feet of clay when it comes to basic education.”

Mr. Mattoo noted that companies in the Philippines are actively involved in the artificial intelligence (AI) economy but see a lack of skills in workers due to poor basic educational foundation.

“East Asia’s export-oriented labor-intensive growth lifted a billion people out of poverty in the last three decades, but the region now faces the twin challenges of trade protection and job automation,” he said.

Mr. Mattoo called for reforms in the business climate and education system to foster a “virtuous cycle between opportunity and capacity,” which would lead to stronger growth and better-quality jobs.

The World Bank also called for reforms and investments in human capital and digital infrastructure, greater competition in services, and policies to ensure a match between job opportunities and people’s skills.

It noted that rapid advances in AI, robotics, and digital platforms require greater agility from firms, workers, and policymakers.

Meanwhile, Mr. Mattoo also flagged the Philippines’ slow industrialization compared with regional peers such as Vietnam, citing the country’s continued reliance on trade tariffs.

“Trade taxes are the simplest way of limiting revenue especially in countries with low administrative capacity,” he said, as it diverting resources away from sectors where the country holds an advantage.

The Philippine government lowered the rice import tariff to 15% from 35% in July 2024 to curb inflation. Agriculture groups have since called for the restoration of the original rate, citing adverse effects on local farmers and an estimated P4.3-billion revenue loss for the government.

“I think non-discriminatory instruments like value-added taxes, better and more effective income taxes and perhaps even the more controversial wealth taxes might be the more effective way of meeting revenue needs,” Mr. Mattoo said.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto has downplayed the urgency of a wealth tax, but said he would support the measure if passed by Congress. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

PHL manufacturing output expands in August

October 8, 2025 | 12:31 am

Factory worker — A worker is seen inside a manufacturing plant in Sto. Tomas, Batangas, March 1, 2023. — PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

By Isa Jane D. Acabal

FACTORY OUTPUT expanded in August, driven by higher production of food products, machinery and equipment, and a slower annual decline in basic metals, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported.

Preliminary results of the PSA’s latest Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries showed factory output, as measured by the volume of production index (VoPI), rose by 1.4% year on year in August. This was slightly faster than the 1.3% growth in the same month last year, and a turnaround from the 1.8% drop in July.

The August reading was the fastest growth since the 1.6% expansion in June.

In the eight months to August, factory output growth averaged 0.5%, slower than the 2.5% average in the same period last year.

On a monthly basis, August’s output picked up by 0.1%, slower than 2.6% in July. Stripping out seasonality factors, it fell by 3.2%.

According to the PSA, the faster year-on-year growth rate of VoPI for manufacturing in August was primarily driven by food products, which jumped by 20.2% from 11.4% in July.

There was also an uptick in machinery and equipment except electrical (6.7% in August from 3.1% in July), and a slower annual decline in basic metals (-9.6% from -26.8%).

Nine other divisions recorded expansions, while 10 saw declines.

The PSA also said that the top three industry divisions that contributed to the overall year-on-year growth in the VoPI were food products, transport equipment (6.5% in August from 9.5% in July), and electrical equipment (19.5% from 21.2%).

Average capacity utilization, or the extent to which industry resources are used in producing goods, averaged 77.3% in August. This was a tad higher than the revised 77.2% in July and the 75.6% posted last year.

In comparison, the Philippines in the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expanded to 50.8 in August from 50.9 in July.

PMI is a leading indicator for factory activity, reflecting the volume of materials purchased in advance of manufacturing operations weeks or months down the line. A reading above 50 separates expansion from contraction.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, said the expansion in food production can be attributed to producers’ anticipation of strong holiday demand.

“Inflation was still relatively low overall, so consumer purchasing power remained intact, supporting demand for processed food,” he said in a Viber message.

Mr. Asuncion also said the immediate impact of the US tariffs on the Philippines was limited as food and machinery production is mostly domestic-focused or exempted from tariffs.

“However, exports slowed significantly, and US-bound shipments fell, signaling that the tariff’s full effect will likely hit in the fourth quarter 2025. Sectors like garments and footwear faced pressure, but they contribute less to overall manufacturing output compared with food and machinery,” he said.

US President Donald J. Trump imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, which took effect on Aug. 7.

Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr., president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc., said in a phone interview that manufacturers may have ramped up production ahead of the implementation of US tariffs.

“For food products, there was frontloading for the US tariff… Double time in manufacturing food products,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Asuncion said manufacturing output is expected to “grow moderately” in the remaining months of the year, driven by food demand ahead of the holidays, infrastructure-linked machinery production, and further monetary easing by the central bank.

“However, risks remain from US tariffs, global trade slowdown, weather-related disruptions, and local political risks. If BSP delivers another rate cut and fiscal spending accelerates, output could rebound toward yearend despite external and internal headwinds,” he said.

Meralco sees higher generation charge for October

October 8, 2025 | 12:07 am

POWER DISTRIBUTOR Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) expects a rise in its generation charge this month, as the peso’s depreciation is seen to drive up the cost of power purchased from its suppliers.

“While we are still waiting for some billings from our suppliers to finalize the October electricity rate, indications point to a possible increase in the generation charge this month,” Meralco Vice-President and Head of Corporate Communications Joe R. Zaldarriaga said in a statement on Tuesday.

He said the potential upward adjustment in the generation charge is due to the weakness of the peso, which affects the cost of power supply contracts that are mostly dollar-denominated.

The peso closed at P58.196 per dollar on Sept. 30, weakening by P1.07 from its P57.13 finish on Aug. 29, according to the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ reference exchange rate.

Meralco, however, is hoping that the upward adjustment will be offset by lower power prices at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), the electricity trading floor.

The average WESM rate system-wide fell by 33.8% month on month to P3.04 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in September supply billing, according to the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP).

According to IEMOP, the decline is the lowest in the past seven months.

For Luzon alone, spot prices fell by 31.7% month on month to P2.57 per kWh.

The generation charge typically accounts for more than 50% of the monthly electricity bill.

In September, the overall rate dropped by P0.1852 per kWh to P13.0851 per kWh from P13.2703 per kWh the previous month, owing to a lower generation charge.

Meralco is the main power distributor for Metro Manila and nearby areas, covering 39 cities and 72 municipalities, and delivering power to around eight million customers.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of the PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

SEC plans unified lending ID to improve credit access, stop lending abuses

October 8, 2025 | 12:06 am

Mobile-phones — STOCK PHOTO | Image by terimakasih0 from Pixabay

By Alexandria Grace C. Magno

THE Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is looking to introduce a unified lending identification (ULI) system to make it easier for borrowers to access credit and to prevent predatory lending and abusive debt collection practices.

“Since our national ID system is still not reliable, we intend to introduce the ULI to provide easy access to credit facilities through authenticated data,” SEC Commissioner Rogelio V. Quevedo said during a Senate committee hearing on Monday.

From January to Sept. 15, the SEC handled 5,415 public complaints involving financing and lending companies and their online platforms, he noted.

“Of this total, 3,570 complaints, or 66%, involve unfair debt collection practices or collection harassment. Among these, 3,315 complaints were filed against unregistered financing companies, lending companies, and online lending platforms (OLPs), while 435 complaints targeted unregistered entities and/or unrecorded OLPs,” he added.

He said unregistered online platforms are among the key concerns that should be addressed by law enforcement agencies.

“Actually, we want to report that the problem is the unrecorded, unregistered online platforms. These are the people, the institutions, that are the subject of complaints. These are the lending companies that are not registered with the SEC,” he said.

“I must note that while the SEC is empowered to conduct investigations, we have no police power. We cannot raid these institutions without enlisting the help of our law enforcement agencies,” he added.

As part of its ongoing monitoring, the SEC said enforcement measures have been carried out, including the issuance of show-cause letters, notices of deficiencies, assessment letters, walk-through examinations, desk reviews, and on-site audits.

While the commission issues show-cause orders and suspends or revokes the licenses of abusive lenders, some continue to operate. The SEC has sought coordination with the Philippine Association of Online Credit (PAOC) to strengthen enforcement.

“There was even one instance where PAOC referred about 20,000 complaints to us, and we discovered that many of these complaints were simply repetitions,” Mr. Quevedo said.

He said complaints against abusive lenders often come alongside cases of borrowers who refuse to pay back loans after filing complaints.

“There are abusive borrowers. They think that if they complain to the financial lending companies, they don’t need to pay. The SEC also needs to protect this industry because it caters to the unbanked sector.”

The commissioner said the SEC also intends to lift the moratorium on online lending platforms once the ULI is fully established and operational.

Apart from the proposed ID system, Mr. Quevedo said the commission is also exploring the use of blockchain technology as a centralized system to verify borrower information for transparency.

He said this will make it easier for consumers to access legitimate credit options and equip authorities with better tools to combat debt collection harassment and prevent abuses by unregistered lenders.

“This is necessary for transparent dissemination of information to borrowers and the public regarding loan products, interest rates, online lending platforms, and third-party service providers. We also intend to use artificial intelligence, as I mentioned, blockchain technology,” he said.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said the ULI is a strategic initiative to improve credit access while curbing predatory lending and harassment.

“By giving borrowers a unique lending ID, it will allow lenders to better assess risk through verified and centralized data, which could lower borrowing costs and reduce default rates. It also strengthens borrower protection by deterring multiple overlapping loans and making abusive collection practices easier to monitor,” he said in a Viber message.

For his part, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the ULI system would reduce asymmetric information on borrowers, resulting in faster processing, reduced costs, and more loans disbursed.

“With better information available about borrowers, lenders can make improved credit decisions and manage credit risk more effectively. A more reliable credit scoring or vetting system would also help reduce nonperforming loans (NPLs) and improve loan collection processes,” he said in a Viber message.

Gov’t fully awards dual-tranche T-bond offering

October 8, 2025 | 12:05 am

THE GOVERNMENT made a full award of the dual-tranche Treasury bonds (T-bonds) it offered on Tuesday at average rates close to comparable secondary market levels following slower-than-expected September inflation.

The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) raised P35 billion as planned via its dual-tenor T-bond offer as total bids reached P77.776 billion, or more than double the amount placed on the auction block.

Broken down, the Treasury borrowed the programmed P15 billion via the reissued seven-year bonds, with total bids reaching P34.436 billion or more than double the amount on offer.

This brought the total outstanding volume for the bond series to P376.4 billion.

The bonds, which have a remaining life of two years and six months, were awarded at an average rate of 5.698%. Accepted yields ranged from 5.6% to 5.71%.

The average rate of the reissued papers rose by 9.3 basis points (bps) from the 5.605% fetched for the series’ last award on Sept. 23 and was also 207.3 bps above the 3.625% coupon for the issue.

Still, this was 0.2 bp below the 5.696% fetched for the same bond series and 0.7 bp lower than the 5.705% quoted for the three-year bond — the benchmark tenor closest to the remaining life of the — at the secondary market before Tuesday’s auction, based on PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service (BVAL) Reference Rates data provided by the BTr.

Meanwhile, the government also raised P20 billion as planned from the reissued 10-year T-bonds it auctioned off, with total bids for the tenor reaching P43.45 billion.

This brought the total outstanding volume for the bond series to P462.6 billion.

The papers, which have a remaining life of nine years and six months, were awarded at an average rate of 6.043%. Accepted yields ranged from 6.035% to 6.05%.

The average rate rose by 13.6 bps from the 5.907% fetched for the series’ last award on Sept. 16 but was 33.2 bps lower than the 6.375% coupon for the issue.

This was also 0.2 bp below the 6.041% seen for the same bond series but 2.4 bps higher than the 6.019% quoted for the 10-year bond at the secondary market before Tuesday’s auction, PHP BVAL Reference Rates data showed.

T-bond yields were within market expectations and were close to comparable secondary market levels amid a lack of leads, a trader said in a text message.

The lower-than-expected September inflation print likely affected yield movements, the trader added.

Headline inflation picked up to 1.7% in September from 1.5% in August, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported on Tuesday.

This was the fastest pace in six months or since the 1.8% print in March, but was within the central bank’s 1.5-2.3% forecast for the month and below the 1.9% median estimate in a BusinessWorld poll of 12 analysts.

This also marked the seventh straight month that the consumer price index (CPI) was below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% annual target.

For the first nine months, the CPI averaged 1.7%, matching the BSP’s forecast for the year.

Meanwhile, the 10-year bond’s average rate rose from the previous award as players may have been hesitant to place their cash in longer tenors due to external risks, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

These include “concerns over long-term inflation if the Federal Reserve becomes more aggressive in cutting rates in the coming months as urged by US President Donald J. Trump recently, as this could loosen their grip on inflation and inflation expectations,” he added.

The BTr is looking to raise P180 billion from the domestic market this month, or P110 billion via Treasury bills and P70 billion through T-bonds.

The government borrows from local and foreign sources to help fund its budget deficit, which is capped at P1.56 trillion or 5.5% of gross domestic product this year. — A.M.C. Sy

AAA winners are meditations on colonial history, faith, and memory

October 8, 2025 | 12:05 am

AAA25_installation_JelSuarez2 — AN ART INSTALLATION by Jel Suarez

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ARTWORKS that ponder Philippine colonial history, personal and collective memory, and expressions of faith came out on top in the 2025 edition of the Ateneo Art Awards (AAA), held last Sunday at the Ateneo Art Gallery of the Ateneo De Manila University in Quezon City.

The four main prize winners for the Ateneo Art Awards-Fernando Zobel Prizes for Visual Arts — given to artists for an exhibit of their works — were Jel Suarez’s As I Lift One Stone, Silke Lapina’s Bakit Pa, Hannah Reyes Morales’ Home Holds Still, and Uri De Ger’s Beauty Is In The Eye Of The Colonizer.

Nine residencies were also given out, including the No Space Residency in Baguio, Benguet, to Mr. De Ger; the ABungalow Residency in Talisay, Negros Occidental, to Ms. Morales; and Project Space Pilipinas in Lucban, Quezon, and La Trobe Art Institute in Bendigo, Australia, to Ms. Lapina.

Ms. Suarez received five residency grants, from CASA San Miguel in San Antonio, Zambales; Koganecho Area Management Center in Yokohama, Japan; The Creative Campus at Liverpool Hope University in Liverpool, UK; the Monsoon Southeast Asia Collection and LASALLE College of the Arts in Singapore; and OCAD University in Ontario, Canada.

The winners were chosen from a shortlist of 12, which, in turn, were chosen from 158 nominees back in August.

Mr. De Ger’s Beauty Is In The Eye Of The Colonizer — exhibited at Kalawakan SpaceTime — examines how neocolonial forces actively shape contemporary Filipino perceptions of beauty, value, and identity. His installation pieces and paintings draw from internet culture and humor to expose how Filipino aesthetic ideals are informed by Western imperialism.

Ms. Morales’ Home Holds Still was exhibited in Tarzeer Pictures. Her photographs explore how historical memory and current events shape everyday life, spanning Duterte’s drug war to the present day. Her body of work had previously earned her a Pulitzer Prize finalist spot.

Ms. Lapina’s Bakit Pa — exhibited at Edoweird — was only her second solo show in the Philippines. As a German-Filipino multimedia artist, she tackles themes of faith, doubt, and resilience, inspired by Filipino Catholicism and German skepticism, in her installation which uses textiles, mirrors, images, and light.

Ms. Suarez’s As I Lift One Stone was exhibited at the Blanc Gallery. Pulling from her personal experience of moving houses, her collage art depicts found objects like book pages, scraps of wood, and fragments of writing. Her ink-brush drawings are assembled to evoke feelings of uncertainty, change, and impermanence.

“The exhibit happened at a time when I found out my mom was sick. She’s terminally ill, so I had to figure out how to come up with works with portability because I needed to be back and forth in Manila and Bacolod,” Ms. Suarez told BusinessWorld after the awarding.

“My practice is mainly collage-making, but for this exhibition it transformed into object-making,” she added, noting that her goal is for the works to resonate with people who may see their own personal memories in the collection of items.

Meanwhile, the Ateneo Art Awards-Purita Kalaw-Ledesma (PKL) Prizes in Art Criticism went to Pie Tiausas and Bea Belen-Ferrer in the English category and Emersan Baldemor in the Filipino category.

Mr. Tiausas’ essay, “The internet is a space for the lonely,” was awarded the PKL Prize for The Philippine Star. With the essay “In Between Flight and Fallout: What Would Postwar Modernists Do?,” Ms. Belen-Ferrer clinched the PKL Prize for ArtAsiaPacific magazine, the Naranja Residency under Orange Project, and the Indeks Residency grant. Mr. Baldemor’s essay, “Hindi Lahat ng Umaangat ay Naaalala: Si Tandang Ano at ang Politikang Estetiko ng Paglimot,” earned him the PKL Prize for the Katipunan Journal and the White House Residency grant.

The Ateneo Art Awards 2025 exhibit is on view at the third floor of the Ateneo Art Gallery in Areté, Ateneo de Manila University, Katipunan Ave., Quezon City, until Dec. 7. — Brontë H. Lacsamana