By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter, and Erika Mae P. Sinaking
THE GOVERNMENT’S failure to meet its self-imposed Dec. 25 deadline to arrest key personalities linked to the massive graft scandal has reinforced public doubts about how far accountability is allowed to go, analysts said.
“What unsettles people is not that arrests didn’t happen,” University of Makati political science professor Ederson DT. Tapia said via Facebook Messenger. “It’s that they happened in a very familiar way.”
Authorities moved against some individuals and released names, he said, but investigations appeared to stall before reaching those with real political or economic weight — a pattern the public has come to recognize.
Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. vowed to put big personalities behind the flood control scandal in jail by Christmas, but only former public works officials and government contractors have so far been put behind bars.
Mr. Tapia said the missed deadline sharpened perceptions of selective enforcement, particularly in cases tied to flood control projects, where the consequences of alleged misuse are immediately visible.
“When funds are misused, communities don’t just lose money on paper. They lose homes, safety, dignity,” he said, adding that inaction against senior figures is read less as a procedural delay than as “selective courage.”
That perception, he said, gradually reshapes public expectations. Trust in institutions does not collapse outright but “thins out,” turning anti-corruption drives into performative exercises rather than credible deterrents.
Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the prolonged stalemate carries strategic risks for Mr. Marcos, whose net satisfaction rating has already slipped into negative territory.
The administration’s apparent bet that controversies would fade on their own has not restored confidence, he said, noting that weaker protests do not translate into renewed trust.
The President’s net trust rating also slipped into negative territory in the latest Social Weather Stations survey published on Dec. 26. His net trust score was down to -3 from +7 in October, as more respondents expressed little trust than much trust in his leadership.
“This stagnation will not lead to anything new unless heads roll, literally or figuratively,” Mr. Juliano said via Facebook Messenger.
He warned that institutional inertia could become the defining feature of the latter half of Mr. Marcos’ term, particularly as unresolved issues linger and political actors remain in defensive mode.
Both analysts pointed to political patronage and elite networks as central to the impasse.
Mr. Tapia said large-scale corruption is rarely sustained by isolated individuals but by relationships that allow powerful actors to rely on delay, complexity and distance from formal processes. As cases stretch on, lower-level figures absorb the immediate consequences while senior beneficiaries remain untouched.
Mr. Juliano added that the lack of decisive outcomes leaves little incentive for reform and creates space for rival political camps, including allies of former President Rodrigo R. Duterte, to consolidate support ahead of the 2028 presidential elections.
Absent high-level accountability or a clear recalibration of strategy, the administration risks ceding momentum well before the end of its term — allowing weakened trust, entrenched patronage and political stagnation to shape the post-2028 landscape, the analysts said.
Carl Marc L. Ramota, a professor at the University of the Philippines Manila’s Department of Social Sciences, likewise said that although some indictments and arrests have occurred, swift accountability remains unfulfilled, particularly for high-ranking officials.
“The government can do better,” Mr. Ramota told BusinessWorld via Facebook Messenger. “While we welcome the indictment of several DPWH (Department of Public Works and Highways) officials and contractors, including Sarah Discaya, the fact remains that no high-ranking public official has been arrested due to corruption charges.”
Public Works Secretary Vivencio B. Dizon has reported that 87 individuals have been recommended for criminal and administrative charges, with 23 formally charged in court as of December.
Contractor Cezarah Rowena C. Discaya, owner of St. Timothy Construction, was officially served an arrest warrant by the National Bureau of Investigation and is currently detained at the Lapu-Lapu City Jail in Cebu. Her husband, Pacifico “Curlee” F. Discaya II, is still within Senate custody alongside three former DPWH engineers — Henry C. Alcantara, Brice Ericson D. Hernandez, and Jaypee D. Mendoza.
Elizaldy S. Co, former Party-list Representative and former chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, remains a fugitive. He resigned from Congress earlier this year and is believed to be in hiding abroad. The government has canceled his passport as he faces multiple cases of plunder and malversation involving approximately P5 billion in alleged kickbacks.
“The long wait is unsettling and will further erode the public’s confidence in our institutions and processes,” Mr. Ramota said, adding that prolonged delays could weaken cases. “We might be losing vital evidence, witnesses, not to mention government money, with these delays.”
He said the continued freedom of alleged key figures underscores the need for deeper and more sustained investigations to identify and prosecute those who allegedly orchestrated the large-scale misuse of public funds in flood control projects.
Mr. Ramota also flagged institutional challenges surrounding the Independent Commission for Infrastructure, noting that it has been marred by controversies, including resignations and lingering questions over its transparency and independence.
Antonio A. Ligon, a law and business professor at De La Salle University in Manila, said the government has made some progress, but institutional and procedural factors have influenced the pace of arrests.
“While we have yet to see the full realization of the ‘jailed by Christmas’ promise since no new names have been jailed, I remain optimistic that the government’s objective of holding those involved accountable will be achieved,” Mr. Ligon said.
He noted that the justice system emphasizes due process, which can slow proceedings, and that seasonal factors can affect administrative timelines.
“Realistically the Ombudsman is only one person, those under him might not have that kind of grit and determination,” he said, adding that a coordinated whole-of-government approach is needed to effectively pursue accountability in major corruption cases.
