By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES should build permanent structures within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea with the help of allies to deter China from further advancing its claim of maritime areas and resorting to more swarming activities in the West Philippine Sea, analysts said on Sunday.

However the same analysts acknowledged that doing so could raise concerns over Manila’s commitment to a 2002 agreement that seeks to prevent new initiatives in the waterway that could disrupt the status quo.

Last week, the National Security Council of the Philippines reported that Chinese research vessels had been roaming the eastern side of the West Philippine Sea, just as the military flagged the resurgence of Beijing’s swarming tactics.

Enrico Cau, associate researcher at the Taiwan Center for International Strategic Studies, said China’s swarming activities, which were also spotted near the gas- and oil-rich Reed Bank (Recto Bank), may be aimed at testing the Philippines’ resolve and capability to enforce its maritime sovereign rights “in preparation for a Chinese takeover with the construction of new outposts in mind.”

“Another potential reason could be signaling displeasure with the Philippines’ recent decision to engage in closer cooperation with the United States and its partners, whose joint activities include joint patrol around the areas,” Mr. Cau said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Should joint patrols with other nations and increased patrols by the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy fail to temper China’s actions, “the key deterrent remains the construction of physical, habitable infrastructure in the features,” Mr. Cau said.

“The presence of such infrastructure would not stop the Chinese units from besieging the features, but would render useless their claims and stem their attempts to build new infrastructure,” he said, noting that Manila may rely on joint task forces for resupply missions to the proposed infrastructure “until the Philippines builds a strong-enough Navy to carry out the task itself.”

Last week, the Armed Forces of the Philippines – Western Command (WESCOM) reported spotting 23 Chinese fishing vessels in Iroquois Reef, near Reed Bank.

“Additional swarming was observed in Escoda (Sabina) Shoal, where five Chinese fishing vessels were present, and in Baragatan (Nares) Bank, with two Chinese fishing vessels recorded,” the WESCOM reported.

Raymond Powell, South China Sea lead at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said China’s swarming activities “create a security dilemma for Philippine security vessels, which have no simple means to disperse them.”

“China frequently uses vessel swarms to assert its sovereignty over particular West Philippine Sea (WPS) features, such as Sabina Shoal or Iroquois Reef,” he said in a Twitter message. “Often, Chinese militia ships will “raft” together, essentially creating a floating outpost deep in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.”

Blake Herzinger, a research fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defense Program at the United States Studies Center, said the Philippine government should replace BRP Sierra Madre – a dilapidated World War II-era warship deliberately grounded on Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) — with a permanent structure that will be manned by Filipino and American forces.

“The United States and the Philippines should act before being forced to react to deteriorating conditions aboard the ship,” he said in analysis published by Texas National Security Review, noting that failure to do so would create conditions “for loss of Philippine sovereignty, a reenactment of China’s seizure of the Philippines’ Scarborough Shoal in 2012.”

Recently, NSC Assistant Director-General Jonathan E. Malaya said legislators have proposed the inclusion of a P100-million fund in next year’s national budget for the proposed construction of a permanent structure in Ayungin Shoal.

Should the proposal generate controversy vis-a-vis the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, there should be discussions on how China’s selective incorporation of the deal has put smaller claimants like the Philippines at a disadvantage, said Don Mclain Gill, who teaches foreign relations at the De La Salle University in Manila.

It is Mr. Gill’s opinion that “whatever the Philippines does in its waters will always align with international law and the 2016 ruling.”

“At a time when the BRP Sierra Madre’s conditions continue to deteriorate, China will be closely monitoring this development to navigate how far it can go in terms of its adventurism in Philippine waters,” Mr. Gill said. “It is therefore inevitable and undeniable how maintaining a more formidable structure in the WPS is important for Manila.”

Chester B. Cabalza, founder of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, said other South China Sea claimants like Vietnam and Malaysia have been able to develop their claimed features in the waterway “without the interference of China.”

He said the Philippines’ may harness its growing relationships with the US, Australia, and Japan in upgrading its facilities in the maritime areas within the country’s EEZ.

For Lucio B. Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, the Philippines should step up patrols and use available technologies like satellites to monitor situations as China reverts to its swarming activities.

“Relevant Philippine authorities should log the presence of such foreign fishing vessels, escort them out of the country’s EEZ and deter further intrusions,” Mr. Pitlo said via Messenger chat. “Incidents when such ships acted or behaved out of the ordinary should be noted.”

The documentation could be regularly published and serve as reference for filing necessary protests, he added. It could also be taken up with concerned neighbors in diplomatic discussions.

The latest Chinese swarming activity was reported days after the Chinese Coast Guard’s repeated attempts to block Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal through dangerous maneuvers.

China has been pushing a narrative that the Philippine government had made a pledge in the past to remove BRP Sierra Madre from the shoal, which is about 200 kilometers from the Philippine island of Palawan and more than 1,000 kilometers from China’s nearest major landmass, the Hainan Island.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. had said he’s “not aware of any such arrangement or agreement.” If such an agreement happened, “I rescind that agreement now.”

Experts have said Beijing’s narrative on BRP Sierra Madre is part of its attempts to advance its claims in the South China Sea through psychological warfare or disinformation.

Technology has helped  the government provide Filipinos with accurate information and combat false narratives, Philippine Coast Guard Jay Tristan Tarriela said in a tweet following his participation in Rappler, Inc’s technology-driven Social Good Summit.

“Despite having lesser technological capabilities compared to China, we have successfully countered their bullying behavior and even compelled them to modify their actions.”

“We firmly believe that the power of technology cannot be solely measured by its sophistication or complexity,” he said, “but rather by the positive impact it brings to the world.”