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World’s biggest nuclear plant in Japan to resume path towards restart

Source: http://tinyurl.com/e6hec83m CC BY-SA 2.0

 – Japan’s nuclear power regulator on Wednesday lifted an operational ban it imposed on Tokyo Electric Power’s 9501.T massive Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power plant two years ago, clearing the path for it to resume a process towards a restart.

Tepco has been eager to bring the world’s largest atomic power plant back online to slash operating costs, but a resumption still needs local consent in Niigata prefecture, on the Sea of Japan coast.

With capacity of 8,212 megawatts (MW), the plant has been offline since around 2011, when the Fukushima disaster prompted the eventual shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Japan at the time.

In 2021, the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) barred Tepco from operating Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, its only operable atomic power station, due to safety breaches including the failure to protect nuclear materials and missteps that led to an unauthorised staff member accessing sensitive areas of the plant.

Citing improvements in the safety management system, the NRA on Wednesday lifted a corrective action order that had prevented Tepco from transporting new uranium fuel to the plant or loading fuel rods into its reactors – effectively blocking a resumption.

Shares in Tepco had risen sharply after the NRA indicated early this month that it would consider lifting the operational ban after conducting an on-site inspection and meeting with the company’s president. – Reuters

China threatens more trade sanctions on Taiwan as election nears

CHESS PIECES are seen in front of displayed China and Taiwan’s flags in this illustration taken Jan. 25, 2022. — REUTERS

 – The Chinese government on Wednesday threatened to place further trade sanctions on Taiwan if the ruling party “stubbornly” adheres to supporting independence, in a further escalation of the war of words as Taiwanese elections approach next month.

Taiwan’s Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary elections are taking place as China, which views the island as its own territory, has sought to force Taiwan to accept Chinese sovereignty claims.

Taiwan this month accused China of economic coercion and election interference after Beijing announced the end of tariff cuts on some chemical imports from the island, saying Taipei violated a trade agreement between the two sides signed in 2010.

That came after China said it had determined Taiwan had put up trade barriers in contravention of both World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and the 2010 trade deal.

Speaking at a regular news briefing in Beijing, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said the “root cause” of resolving problems related to the 2010 deal was Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) adherence to the island’s formal independence.

“If the DPP authorities are determined to persevere, continue to stubbornly adhere to their Taiwan independence position, and refuse to repent, we support the relevant departments taking further measures in accordance with the regulations,” Chen said.

China detests both the DPP and its presidential candidate, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, who is leading in the polls, believing they are separatists.

Lai says he has no plans to change the island’s formal name, the Republic of China, but that only Taiwan’s people can decide their future. He has also repeatedly offered talks with China but has been rebuffed.

The defeated republican government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong’s communists who founded the People’s Republic of China.

Chen said Taiwan was “facing a crossroads” about where to go, and that anything can be discussed on the basis of opposing Taiwan’s independence. He reiterated that Taiwan independence means war.

However, Chen also extended his “heartfelt thanks” to Taiwanese companies which had donated money to help deal with the aftermath of an earthquake in a remote part of northwestern China this month which killed 1949 people.

But he made no mention of condolences by Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen to China after the disaster and offers of help from her government. – Reuters

Philippines attracts four bids for $3B airport upgrade

The government on Wednesday opened the bidding for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport public-private partnership project. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

MANILA – The Philippines’ auction for a P170.6 billion ($3 billion) upgrade of its main international airport attracted four bidders, the transportation ministry said on Wednesday.

Firms that submitted bids were the Manila International Airport Consortium, Asian Airport Consortium, GMR Airports Consortium, and SMC SAP & Co Consortium, the bids and awards committee said.

The transportation ministry will award in the first quarter the 15-year concession that is extendable by another 10 years. — Reuters

AC Health strengthens pharma footprint through investment in St. Joseph Drug

In photo (L to R): Anthony L. Cruz (Director — St. Joseph Drug); Maria Eleanor L. Cruz-Valero (Corporate Secretary — St. Joseph Drug); Atty. Yet Abarca (President and CEO — APV and Generika Drugstore); Paolo Borromeo (President and CEO — AC Health); Ma. Socorro Dorotea “Gigi” L. Cruz (Chairman, President, and CEO — St. Joseph Drug); Marilene L. Cruz-Bernal (Treasurer and COO — St. Joseph Drug); Maria Catherine L. Cruz-Bangsal (Director — St. Joseph Drug); and Joselito L. Cruz (Director – St. Joseph Drug)

Ayala Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AC Health) has acquired a significant minority stake in North Luzon-based pharmaceutical company, St. Joseph Drug (Joleco Resources, Inc.). The definitive agreements were signed last Dec. 15 between St. Joseph Drug and AC Health’s pharmaceutical arm, AHCHI Pharma Ventures, Inc. (APV).

Established in 1958 by pharmacist Jose “Pepe” Cruz and his wife Leila Lagman from Dagupan City, St. Joseph Drug has grown from a modest provincial drugstore with three employees and a 3.5-meter storefront into a leading regional pharmaceutical chain spanning over 112 stores across Northern Luzon.

“The addition of St. Joseph Drug to our portfolio is in line with our commitment to enhance accessibility and affordability of healthcare for Filipinos nationwide. St. Joseph Drug, alongside our existing retail pharma brand, Generika Drugstore, will expand our capacity and footprint to distribute quality and affordable medicine to our countrymen. Together with our pharma importation businesses I.E. Medica and MedEthix, we will greatly enhance synergies and efficiencies within our pharmacy platform to further improve our products and services throughout our AC Health network,” said Paolo Borromeo, President and CEO of AC Health.

Ma. Socorro Dorotea “Gigi” L. Cruz, Chairman, President, and CEO of St. Joseph Drug, also expressed enthusiasm about the partnership, stating, “This partnership with AC Health marks a significant milestone in St. Joseph Drug’s journey. We are proud to have established St. Joseph Drug as a household name in Northern Luzon over the years, and we look forward to broadening our reach with AC Health.”

AHCHI Pharma Ventures, Inc. (APV) serves as the holding company for AC Health’s pharmaceutical businesses. Composed of Generika Drugstore, the pioneer in generic retail pharmacies, and I.E. Medica and MedEthix, its pharma importation and distribution arms, APV now includes St. Joseph Drug. This strategic acquisition enables AC Health to strengthen its pharma footprint and reach more Filipinos throughout the country.

 


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BoI-approved investments hit P1.16T

Philippine flags line the road in the City of Dasmariñas in Cavite, June 2, 2023. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

THE BOARD of Investments (BoI) said on Tuesday that total approved investments reached a record P1.16 trillion so far this year, thanks to a surge in renewable energy projects as the sector was opened up to full foreign ownership.

In a statement, the BoI said it had greenlit P1.16 trillion as of Dec. 18, 59% up from P729 billion approved in 2022.

“There are three more projects worth about P350 billion that are currently being assessed and, if they are able to comply with both the substantive and transparency requirements, they may be able to make it to the BoI Board and Mancom deliberations on Dec. 28 — our last for the year,” Trade Undersecretary and BoI Managing Head Ceferino S. Rodolfo said in a statement.

The P1.16-trillion figure so far is still 29% below the revised P1.5-trillion investment approval target set by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) for the year. The DTI earlier upwardly revised the BoI’s initial P1-trillion target for 2023.

“The BoI hitting P1.16 trillion for 2023 reaffirms strong investor confidence in the administration of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. — their responsiveness to the policy initiatives of the President and the effectiveness of the aggressive investment promotion activities,” Trade Secretary and BoI Chairman Alfredo E. Pascual said.

“We are all-the-more optimistic about opportunities that lie ahead in 2024, with the BoI poised to further catalyze smart- and sustainability-driven investments in the country,” he added.

Domestic approvals hit P398.76 billion, accounting for 34% of the total approvals, and 26% higher than the year-ago figures.

On the other hand, foreign investment approvals soared by 452% to P763.22 billion this year.

The BoI said it approved P968.14 billion worth of investments for the renewable energy and power sector, accounting for 83.45% of the total for the year.

This was more than double the P409.03 billion investments approved a year ago, as the Philippine government allowed full foreign ownership in the renewable energy (RE) sector starting November 2022.

Foreign nationals and foreign-owned entities are now allowed to explore, develop and use RE resources in the country such as solar, wind, biomass, ocean or tidal energy. Foreign ownership of RE projects was previously limited to 40%.

“Noteworthy projects approved for January to December were seven offshore wind power projects located in Cavite, Laguna, Dagupan, San Miguel Bay, Negros, and Northern Samar, amounting to a total of P759.84 billion,” it added.

Mr. Pascual, in June, said that investments in renewable energy projects could make up about a third of the agency’s investment approval targets for the year.

Meanwhile, the BoI approved P96.16 billion worth of projects in the information and communication sector this year.

The manufacturing sector had P22.03 billion worth of approved investments, while infrastructure (toll roads) had P20 billion, and P15.63 billion was for mass housing.

The BoI said these investment approvals are expected to generate 47,195 jobs from a total of 303 projects.

In terms of domestic investments, Western Visayas made up the largest share with P316.89 billion worth of investments, followed by Calabarzon (P211.89 billion), Bicol Region (P162.92 billion), Eastern Visayas (P128.62 billion) and Ilocos Region (P122.18 billion).

Meanwhile, foreign investments from Germany contributed the largest share with P393.28 billion, followed by the Netherlands with P333.61 billion, Singapore with P17.38 billion, and the United States with P3.38 billion. — A.H. Halili

External debt service burden surges to $10.8 billion as of end-September

A person shows U.S. dollars at a currency exchange store in Manila, Philippines, October 21, 2022. — REUTERS

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES’ external debt service burden more than doubled in the January-to-September period, according to preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).        

Based on data posted on the BSP’s website, the country’s debt service burden on its external borrowings skyrocketed by 130.7% to $10.846 billion from $4.702 billion in the same period in 2022.   

Month on month, it rose by 22% from $8.89 billion recorded as of end-August.   

As of end-September, the debt service burden is equivalent to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), higher than 1.6% recorded in the comparable year-ago period.

The debt service burden refers to the amount of money a country needs to pay back its foreign creditors. It includes both the principal and interest payments on its external debt.   

BSP data showed principal payments jumped by 110.6% to $5.861 billion in the January-to-September period from $2.78 billion during the same period in 2022.   

Interest payments surged by 159.7% to $4.985 billion in the first nine months of the year from $1.919 billion a year ago.

Principal external debt service is mostly fixed medium- to long-term credit, while interest payments are on fixed and revolving short-term credit from banks and nonbanks.

“The sharp increase in foreign debt payments may have to do with increased foreign borrowings by the government since last year amid the need to hedge against rising interest rates as well as to diversify its sources of borrowings/funding in the global markets, both from commercial and multilateral sources,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.   

Central banks across the world have tightened monetary policy to tame inflation. The BSP was regarded as one of the most aggressive central banks in the region after it hiked the key interest rate by 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023.    

Meanwhile, separate BSP data showed the country’s outstanding external debt increased by 10.1% to $118.833 billion at end-September from $107.91 billion in the same period a year ago. It also inched up by 0.8% from $117.9 billion as of end-June.

External debt refers to all types of borrowings by Philippine residents from nonresidents, following the residency criterion for international statistics.

The external debt ratio, or the external debt as a percentage of GDP, was equivalent to 28.1% of GDP. This was slightly lower than 28.5% in the previous quarter.

“For the coming months, external debt servicing costs could remain elevated amid increased foreign borrowings in recent months amid the further diversification of the government’s funding sources in global markets as well as to provide continued supply/liquidity of Philippine sovereign bonds in the world market as part of capital market development,” Mr. Ricafort said.   

However, possible rate cuts from both the US Federal Reserve and the Monetary Board due to easing inflation may help mitigate external debt servicing costs, he added.   

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said the BSP is unlikely to cut interest rates in the coming months, as monetary policy in the Philippines is in a “higher for longer” scenario.   

The Monetary Board kept its benchmark rate at a 16-year high of 6.5% for a second straight meeting during its December meeting. Interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also left unchanged at 6% and 7%, respectively.

Policy easing will only be considered if inflation and inflation expectations are within a “comfortable” range, Mr. Remolona added.   

Headline inflation eased to 4.1% in November and brought the 11-month inflation average to 6.2%. November marked the 20th straight month that inflation breached the BSP’s 2-4% target band for this year.

The central bank expects inflation to average 6% this year.   

Cost of doing business, navigating international rules hindering wider Philippine utilization of trade deals

REUTERS

By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

EXPORTERS lack the knowledge to tap trade agreements and face a higher cost of doing business in the Philippines, rendering their products uncompetitive relative to other countries’ exports, a business group said.

The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry said cost-of-doing-business issues center on high power and logistics costs.

“The cost of doing business is still quite high (here) compared to the other countries… These are some of the issues that the government has to address for us to really gain full benefit from (taking advantage of) free trade agreements (FTAs),” PCCI President George T. Barcelon told BusinessWorld by phone.

Mr. Barcelon said that aside from incentives, the Philippines must seek to be a competitive market as it is yet to see strong, sustained inflows of foreign direct investment (FDIs).

“It is top of mind in our meeting with the Anti-Red Tape Authority and foreign chambers that there are these issues to be addressed,” he said.

“As of now, we are not seeing any real good inflow of FDIs as investments are still headed towards Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. This is something that needs work,” he added.

Net inflows of FDI slumped to their lowest level in over three years, amounting to $422 million in September. This was 42.2% lower year on year and down by 46.5% from a month prior.

This brought the FDI net inflows to $5.9 billion in the first nine months of the year, representing a 15.9% decline from a year earlier.

Mr. Barcelon said that the Philippines must upskill its workers to move its products higher up the value ladder.

“Once we have increased to a higher value, be it agricultural or electronic products… the other thing that I think the government must be aware is the cost of compliance and permits,” he said.

He said that the added costs do not align with the government’s target of rightsizing the bureaucracy.

“What businesses see is that there is more bureaucracy, and bureaucracy sometimes can be interpreted as the flip side of corruption,” he added.

Last year, the Philippines improved its ranking on the global corruption index compiled by Transparency International. It placed 116th out of 180 countries in the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index, a spot higher than its worst-ever showing of 117th place in 2021.

Despite the improvement in ranking, the Philippine score was 33, its lowest ever in the index and below the global average of 43 and the Asia-Pacific average of 45.

TRADE DEALS
Trade and Industry Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty said some investment must be made in navigating the preferential arrangements and their compliance rules to be in a position to access trade agreements.

“There are still many businesses who are not that aware of these preferential arrangements, including compliance procedures,” Mr. Gepty said in a Viber message.

“The continuing program is for advocacy and education so that exporters can avail of the preferential arrangements and other businesses can be encouraged to export or even do business in other countries,” he added.

Mr. Gepty said the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) plans to sustain its campaign to inform and educate stakeholders on the benefits of FTAs such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other preferential agreements such as the European Union’s (EU) Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+).

The Philippines has been a beneficiary of the GSP+, a special trade scheme for vulnerable low- and lower-middle-income countries, since 2014. GSP+ grants zero duties on 6,274 Philippine products.

The current arrangement was set to expire by the end of 2023. However, the Council of EU Member States and the European Parliament amended the GSP scheme to extend it to 2027.

Under the current scheme, eligible countries, such as the Philippines, will have to comply with 27 international conventions on human rights, labor rights, climate action, and good governance.

The Philippines was threatened with the loss of its GSP+ status during the Duterte administration due to European concern over extrajudicial killings and alleged human rights violations.

The Duterte administration’s “war on drugs” was condemned by the European Parliament in a resolution passed in February 2022, which asked the country to act on human rights abuses.

On the other hand, RCEP, the world’s biggest FTA involving a third of the global economy, counts among its members Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea.

The deal aims to increase trade among RCEP participants by allowing minimal to zero restrictions on shipment volumes, tariffs, and import taxes.

The Philippines was the last participating country to ratify the FTA on June 2, more than two and a half years since the participating countries concluded the deal in November 2020.

Mr. Gepty said that the late ratification is one of the reasons why it is still too early to assess RCEP utilization in the Philippines.

“Since its implementation in the Philippines only started in June, it would still be too early to gather and process data. We are coordinating with concerned agencies to gather relevant data for purposes of monitoring,” he said.

Mr. Barcelon added: “RCEP was just ratified in the middle of the year, so it will take some time to really get the benefits from it.”

He said that most RCEP countries are already Philippine trading partners.

“Some of the benefits that I would see are for our agricultural sector to be able to expand their market in Japan, among others,” he added, citing the benefits of the lowered tariffs for Philippine produce under RCEP.

Tereso O. Panga, director-general of the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), said there has been an increase in investment approvals from some RCEP countries.

“There has been a marked increase in our ecozone investment approvals this year from Australia and China, countries we consider in PEZA as non-traditional sources of economic zone (ecozone) FDI and exports,” Mr. Panga said in a Viber message.

“Clearly, we can attribute this trade and investment market diversification to the country’s recent accession to RCEP,” he added.

PEZA reported that approved investments from Australia more than doubled to P772.82 million in the first 11 months while investments from China grew 65.8% to P1.28 billion during the period.

“With the entry of more Chinese and Australian investors, we can expect these locators to be exporting their products and services back to their principal headquarters or to other RCEP member countries to take advantage of the lower trade barriers and improved market access from trading partners,” Mr. Panga said.

He said that the increase in investment after the implementation of trade agreements was also seen in the case of European countries.

“We see the same trend with the huge growth in ecozone FDI from EU member countries. In addition, we expect our ecozone exports to the EU to likewise achieve a significant increase given the latter’s continued grant of GSP+ privileges to Philippine exporters,” he said.

“With PEZA accounting for more than 60% of the exports of goods and commodities, we are pursuing more locators seeking to avail of the benefits under RCEP and the proposed EU-Philippines FTA to grow their operations in the country,” he added.

In the first 11 months, PEZA approved P16.56 billion in investments from EU member countries, sharply higher compared with the P2.44 billion in approvals a year earlier.

Philip Dupuis, head of trade for the EU Delegation to the Philippines, said the Philippines retains the potential to more fully utilize GSP+.

“Utilization by the Philippines… has been relatively good. I think we are utilizing two-thirds of the eligible exports, more or less, if I remember well, but it could be better,” Mr. Dupuis said in a chance interview.

He said that it is important to determine whether exporters have an ingrained preference for trading with nearby or familiar markets.

“I think there is a lot of work for us to do in terms of making the European market better known, but the companies also need to inform themselves because all the materials are there,” he said.

“Obviously, if you are satisfied with your exports to Japan and the US, then you don’t necessarily look at the EU market. But I think the potential is there; there is potential to grow for Philippine companies in Europe,” he added.

Mr. Dupuis also said that the EU legislators are still looking to update the GSP+ scheme after the current deal’s extension, as the EU Council and Parliament have yet to reach agreement on updating GSP rules.

The EU and the Philippines have also resumed talks for an FTA since the suspension of the negotiations in 2017. Negotiations were put on hold due to issues over intellectual property rights and data exclusivity, among others.

The two parties are expected to complete the initial phase of the negotiations by the end of December, which involves the identification of the chapters that would form part of the FTA.

The two first launched negotiations for an FTA in 2015.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that there is also a need to push the participation of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to further increase utilization of GSP+.

“Some MSMEs that are part of the export supply chain and ecosystem have yet to maximize the potential of GSP+,” Mr. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

He added that supporting “online businesses and transactions would also be able to maximize the economic benefits and potential of these FTAs, given their immense possibilities to expand export markets.”

Mr. Ricafort said FTAs are helpful for effectively expanding the markets of Philippine exporters at much reduced cost, making them more competitively priced.

He said such trade deals also attract more investment, with investors from nearby countries using the Philippines as a stepping stone to access the benefits of preferential agreements such as GSP+.

Banks, electronic money issuers reviewing zero transaction fees on small transfers

DAVID DVORACEK-UNSPLASH

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

BANKS and electronic money issuers (EMIs) are still reviewing the removal of transaction fees for small online fund transfers, an official from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.   

BSP Deputy Governor Mamerto E. Tangonan said talks between the central bank and the payments industry to remove or lower transaction charges for small e-payments have been productive.   

“Many banks have waived their fees on e-payments (for) P1,000 and below. Others are continuing their review of their financials to see how they can make it possible,” he told BusinessWorld in a Viber message.   

Mr. Tangonan said banks that have waived fees on small fund transfers are assessing the value gained from having zero fee transactions such as an increase in customers and higher client loyalty.   

As of Nov. 7, nine banks have waived PESONet charges until further notice while two lenders are implementing zero fee transactions until Dec. 31, 2023.    

For fund transfers through InstaPay, seven banks have removed transaction charges until further notice, while five lenders have waived their fees until end-December 2023.   

PESONet caters to high-value transactions and is considered as an electronic alternative to paper-based checks while InstaPay is a real-time electronic fund transfer facility for low-value transactions of up to P50,000.

To boost the usage of digital payments among Filipinos, the BSP has been encouraging BSP-supervised financial institutions (BSFIs) to waive or lower rates on small e-payments since last year. But banks and non-banks have not yet reached an agreement with the central bank.

Last week, the BSP released Memorandum No. M-2023-037, which states that the moratorium on transfer fee increases remains in effect. It was first imposed in 2021.   

“The moratorium is in effect until the banks and EMIs waive their fees on small e-payments and subject to our review,” Mr. Tangonan said.   

Based on the memorandum, a transfer fee that is currently waived may only be restored up to the amount reported to the BSP before the waiver. 

BSFIs who are also planning to introduce fees for new fund transfer services will need to apply for prior BSP approval. These fees must also be reported to the BSP 60 days before implementation.   

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said the central bank is actively working on lowering and ultimately eliminating fees on small electronic payments.

“The reduction or removal of transfer fees for small e-payments supports our vision of digitalization and inclusivity. We are engaging the industry through dialogue to explore ways to reduce or completely eliminate fees for small-value transactions,” he said.   

Last week, lawmakers filed a bill that seeks to waive additional fees in small electronic wallet (e-wallet) transactions at the House of Representatives.   

Under the proposed law, all electronic fund transfer service providers will be required to waive all fees associated with small-value transactions.

The fee waiver will be applied when sending money to another e-wallet user, cashing in or cashing out to an e-wallet account, and transferring funds to a bank account.

The BSP will have the authority to adjust the transaction amount subject to waived fees based on the daily cost of living, current exchange rate, and inflation rate.

Based on BSP data, the combined value of transactions done through the BSP’s automated clearing houses InstaPay and PESONet rose by 30.6% to P10.39 trillion as of October from P7.95 trillion in the same period last year.   

In terms of volume, transactions coursed through the clearing houses grew by 43.7% to 733 million as of end-October from 510 million in the comparable year-ago period.

The BSP is targeting to digitalize 50% of total retail transactions and onboard at least 70% of Filipino adults to the financial system by the end of this year. 

BSP’s policy easing expected to support economy in 2024

AN AERIAL VIEW shows the Ortigas business district in Pasig City, Philippines, June 10, 2022. — REUTERS/ADRIAN PORTUGAL

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

THE WIDELY expected monetary policy easing from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) next year will likely spur economic activity especially if inflation is kept in check.

However, the BSP and the banking industry should remain vigilant against risks  amid a prolonged period of volatility and uncertainty, analysts said.

Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist and Senior Assistant Vice-President Robert Dan J. Roces said the BSP is expected to start monetary policy easing by mid-2024.

“It’s expected that there might be a shift towards policy easing, potentially starting in mid to late 2024. Such rate cuts could stimulate economic growth by encouraging consumer spending and business investments, provided that inflation is kept under control,” he said in an e-mail. 

At its last meeting for the year, the Monetary Board maintained its target reverse repurchase rate at a 16-year high of 6.5%. The BSP has raised borrowing costs by a cumulative 450 basis points from May 2022 to October 2023 to curb inflation.

Bank of America Country Executive for the Philippines Vincent Valdepeñas said he expects the BSP to start rate cuts by the second quarter. 

“A moderate acceleration of rate cuts can further increase economic activity and can help boost growth. We view a 100-basis-point (bps) cut in 2024 starting second quarter next year, which will bring down the key policy rate to 5.5%,” he said in an e-mail interview. 

Mr. Valdepeñas said Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) will likely expand by 5.5% in 2024, lower than the revised 6.5-7% government target for next year.

Krisjanis Krustins, director for Asia Pacific sovereigns at Fitch Ratings, also see a 100-bp worth of rate cuts from the BSP next year. 

“We assume BSP will cut rates to 5.5% by end-2024 and 4.5% by end-2025, under our forecast of consumer price inflation moderating to an average of 3.5% by 2025 on lower commodity prices, base effects and monetary tightening up to 2023,” he said in an e-mail. 

Headline inflation slowed to 4.1% in November, which marked the 20th straight month that inflation breached the central bank’s 2-4% target range.

Year to date, inflation averaged 6.2%.    

RISING RISKS

However, Fitch’s Mr. Krustins said risks remain despite the slowdown in November inflation, citing elevated inflation expectations, supply-side price pressures, and potential second- round effects from higher minimum wages and transport fares. 

The BSP’s risk-adjusted inflation forecast for 2023 stood at 6% this year, 4.2% for 2024 and 3.4% for 2025.

The BSP also maintained its average inflation baseline forecasts at 6% for 2023, 3.7% for 2024, and 3.2% for 2025.    

Mr. Valdepeñas said some of the key risks to the Philippine economy next year would be geopolitical uncertainties, higher interest rates that may lead to sluggish growth, and climate-environment worries.

“A key challenge for the (banking) industry in 2024 would be maintaining profitability with a prolonged higher rates environment and market volatility while navigating through the credit cycle,” he said. 

He said the Philippine banking industry has so far done well in an environment of higher interest rates.

Banks have seen increased revenues and profits this year due to higher net interest margins, while also better managing their credit portfolios. 

The banking industry’s cumulative net income rose by 10.4% to P270.352 billion as of end-September from P244.876 billion last year, based on the latest central bank data. 

As of end-September, banks’ net interest income jumped by 20.4% to P663.24 billion from P550.666 billion last year.

The Philippine banking industry wrote off P457.88 million worth of bad debts in the nine-month period, 80.1% lower than P2.3 billion a year ago.

Banks have also spent a lot of resource on digitization and technology to remain competitive, Mr. Valdepeñas said. 

“A competitive landscape is always good as it leads to better outcomes for clients, for the business community and for the broader economy,” he said. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Roces said banks had to adapt when the BSP aggressively tightened monetary policy to tame inflation.

“High interest rates typically lead to more expensive loans, dampening borrowing enthusiasm, and slowing down loan growth. However, this also provides an opportunity for banks to achieve higher net interest margins,” he said.

“The industry has had to enhance its risk management practices, with a more prudent credit risk assessment to mitigate the risks. In addition, banks have been adjusting their investment portfolios,” he said.

However, stubborn inflation remains a significant concern as it could prompt the BSP to keep interest rates higher for longer, which could continue to hurt consumer spending and investments.

“The global economic environment also poses a risk, especially if a slowdown affects sectors reliant on exports and foreign investments. Domestic and regional political stability is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and economic stability,” Mr. Roces said.

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION

The increased adoption of digital technology in the banking sector also requires a “substantial investment” in cybersecurity and digital infrastructure. 

The BSP has been proactive in promoting digital transformation in the financial sector. The BSP aims to convert 50% of retail payments into digital form and expand financial inclusion.

The BSP has said it is working closely with the industry to introduce new digital payment streams and facilitate the growth of financial technology (fintech) businesses engaged in e-commerce. 

“Overall, the banking industry faces evolution in 2024, primarily centered around adapting to the digital revolution. This involves enhancing digital platforms and services, offering innovative products, and focusing on personalized customer services,” Mr. Roces said.

Banks and financial institutions need to manage market volatility and enhance strategies such as asset diversification and strengthened liquidity management, he said. 

“The prolonged period of volatility and uncertainty has also changed the competitive landscape, with increased competition from fintech and digital banking platforms. Banks are now more focused than ever on improving customer experience and service efficiency,” he added.

Remembering Shaz

DANCING as Albrecht in Giselle and as Siegfried with Lisa Macuja-Elizalde in Swan Lake.

BM’s Osias Barroso was married to ballet, and dancers were his children

By Giselle P. Kasilag

THERE was a hush that descended every time Ballet Manila (BM) co-artistic director Osias “Shaz” Barroso Jr. entered the studio. Suddenly, all the dancers were standing straighter. Everyone appeared to be intent on warming up. Those who were caught unprepared were hustling to find their place, hoping he would not notice. But Shaz would see all. With one look, he could tell who was properly warm and stretched, who spent the night studying, and who was out partying.

This wisdom stemmed from decades of dancing, choreographing, and teaching ballet. A career that spanned almost four decades yielded a wealth of experience that he passed on to students that number in the thousands.

He was a formidable danseur, partnering prima ballerina Lisa Macuja Elizalde since the late 1980s. He danced all the principal roles of all the important classical ballets with ease and gained for himself a reputation for his exceptional partnering skills.

“I think that the number one duty of the male classical dancer is to present the ballerina well. I want my ballerinas to look good,” he once said. And present them well, he did. So well, in fact, that it earned him the title the “Ballerina’s Prince.”

Principal dancer Romeo Peralta, Jr. remembered a time when Shaz asked him to act as a spotter when he was preparing to dance Don Jose in Eric V. Cruz’s Carmen. He felt unworthy to critique his mentor, but Shaz was adamant, saying that no one is perfect, and he needed Romeo to check his work and correct his mistakes. It was a valuable lesson to learn from the premier danseur.

It wasn’t only in dancing that his meticulous nature could be observed. Principal dancer Jessica Pearl Dames noted how carefully he planned his company classes.

Iyun talaga iyung nami-miss namin, iyung class ni Sir Shaz (We really miss the class of Sir Shaz),” said Pearl. “Iyung combinations niya, may dahilan. Talagang hinahanda kami mula class hanggang rehearsal, at sa show (His combinations have logic. He’d prepare us from class to rehearsals, and the show).”

He was extremely strict. With just one look, dancers were known to stop whatever shenanigans they were up to and give him their full attention. His temper was legendary. But everyone knew that it came from a place of love. He wanted everyone to become better. Just like his ballerinas, he wanted all his students to look good.

When the news of Shaz’s passing was announced early last week, members of the ballet community from all over the world began posting their memories of the man they fondly call Teacher Shaz. Indeed, that was the title he cherished the most.

“I remember after this rehearsal I struggled at, you said — ‘Remember, you are not the same dancer you were 2 years ago. You’re stronger and you’ve grown — give yourself credit.’ And now whenever I’m down, I replay that memory of you in my head. Up to now when I dance, I check myself and think, ‘What would teacher Shaz say?’,” wrote Joan Emery Sia, a former Ballet Manila principal dancer now with the Florida Ballet in the United States.

“His passing is a significant personal loss to me, as I have lost not just a mentor and teacher, but also a cherished friend. Both my students and I have benefited greatly from Sir Shaz’s visits to India and from my visits to Ballet Manila in the Philippines. I will forever cherish the wisdom and inspiration he imparted to us, and his legacy will continue to live on in our hearts,” posted Deepika Ravindran on her social media account.

His students from Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the United States all paid tribute to their mentor.

At Ballet Manila, the company he built together with Ms. Macuja-Elizalde, a hush has descended once more but due to his absence this time.

Principal dancer Mark Sumaylo said that on the weekend their beloved Sir Shaz passed away, the company was performing in multiple sites: a contingent had shows at Roxas City and Kalibo, another was in Baguio, and a team was in Hong Kong for the Asian Grand Prix competition. It was a weekend of triumph, marking the successful return of BM to live performance. Then a phone call was received. After all the shows were completed, Lisa made a call to inform the dancers of the loss.

In their own ways, the dancers recalled the most important lessons they had learned. For co-artistic associate Gerardo Francisco, Jr., it was the intellectual approach in mastering technique. For principal dancer Shaira Comeros, it was the partnering classes. For principal dancer Joshua Enciso, it was the passion he poured into ballet. For soloist Jessa Balote, it was the discipline he instilled in everyone. He was the ballet parent who shaped their careers and changed their lives.

His sister, Icet Barroso, summed it beautifully: “Ballet ang asawa niya, iyung mga dancers ang mga anak niya (Ballet was his spouse, and the dancers were his children).”

But his lessons applied not only in ballet. I met Shaz for the first time as a newbie reporter for BusinessWorld in 1997. He was playing the lead in David Campos’ Petrushka and I sat with him for an interview.

Ang bata mo pa (You’re so young)!” he told me. But he answered all my questions in detail with no hint of the condescension or superiority complex that I experienced from other artists dealing with younger reporters.

He told me that he was never the first choice for roles. Sometimes, he wasn’t even the second choice, or a choice at all. But he was always prepared. He learned all the roles he wanted to perform someday, on top of what was assigned to him. So when the first or second choices could not deliver, he was there, ready to step in at a moment’s notice.

He said that it did not matter that he was not the first choice. What was important was that he was the one who performed it on stage. He was the one the audience saw. He was the one people remembered.

It was a beautiful lesson to learn at the beginning of my career in journalism — a time when I was most impressionable. I began a habit of over-preparing, viewing issues from different sides, and presenting my stories in a more elegant fashion. While I could not dance to save my life, I joined the many dancers from all over the world who benefitted from his wisdom.

But despite his passing, Shaz continues to be an inspiration for the company. In a tribute article written about her partner in 2014, Lisa shone the spotlight on her prince saying, “Shaz is the force behind Ballet Manila. People think it’s me. But he is.”

Giselle P. Kasilag co-owns Project Art, Inc., which handles the archives of Ballet Manila. She is also involved with Ballet Manila founder Lisa Macuja-Elizalde’s radio show, Art 2 Art, under the Manila Broadcasting Company. Ms. Kasilag is a former reporter in the Arts & Leisure section of BusinessWorld.

Meralco’s ‘fair’ rates rank below global average

MANILA ELECTRIC Co. (Meralco) said it has “fair and reasonable rates” as its business scale enables it to source the cheapest cost of electricity.

“Meralco, because ang laki niya (it is big), has the ability to source the cheapest cost of power,” Jose Ronald V. Valles, Meralco’s first vice-president and head of its regulatory management in a media briefing last week.

“A big distribution utility has better capability for the cheapest cost of electricity if the demand is big,” he added.

Citing its commissioned study with Australia-based International Energy Consultants (IEC), Mr. Valles said Meralco has fair and reasonable rates because it is huge.

In the study, the IEC said Meralco’s average tariff ranks 21st out of 46 energy markets in the world and 3% below the global average.

“If subsidized markets are excluded, then Meralco’s tariff is 13% lower than the world average,” the IEC said.

The study said that electricity tariffs in the Philippines’ neighboring countries — particularly Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam — are more than 50% subsidized.

“Notwithstanding this increase, all of the components of the regulated tariff are judged fair and reasonable by IEC, based on comparisons with other markets and versus the underlying cost of electricity supply in Luzon,” the consultancy firm said.

For December, Meralco imposed a decrease of P0.7961 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in electricity rates to P11.2584 per kWh from P12.0545 per kWh in November.

The lower rate was due to the reduction in generation charge of P0.6606 per kWh to P6.5332 per kWh.

Kasi kapag mas malaki ’yung demand mo, mas malaki yung ni-re-require mo. Parang kapag pumunta ka sa Divisoria, bumili ka, by bulk, ’di ba mas makakatipid ka kaysa sa bumili ka ng tingi-tingi. Parang ganun din ’yung power (If you have a huge demand, you will require a bigger supply. Just like if you go to Divisoria, you buy in bulk, wouldn’t you save more instead of buying in retail?),” Mr. Valles said.

Mr. Valles said authorities should focus on “other utilities that do not deliver basic services.”

He said many local government units want Meralco to take over in their areas.

“So bakit hindi ’yun ang focus ng mga kinauukulan? Pag-aralan nila kung papaano natin ma-i-improve ’yun, hindi ’yung distribution utility na nag-pe-perform, nag-de-deliver ng basic services (So why don’t the authorities focus on nonperforming distribution utilities? They should study how we will be able to improve them, not the distribution utility that performs and delivers basic services), Mr. Valles said.

“The very basic reason why we maintain a high level of power reliability and quality is because Meralco has been infusing some of the capex (capital expenditure) every year. We put up new substations, we replace dilapidated facilities, we install cutting edge technologies — smart grid and all that,” Meralco Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer Ronnie L. Aperocho said.

As of September, the power distributor said it had spent P21.1 billion for capex, of which P14.2 billion was used for network capex consisting of new connections, asset renewals, and load growth projects, among others.

Currently, Meralco is conducting the rebidding process for the procurement of its 1,800-megawatt (MW) and 1,200-MW power supply requirements.

Meralco is the main power distributor for Metro Manila and nearby areas, covering 39 cities and 72 municipalities.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Why market players are optimistic about equities in 2024

REUTERS

By Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINE stock market is expected to improve in 2024 amid more opportunities for capital raising and growth, according to industry players and analysts.

Ramon S. Monzon, president and chief executive officer of local bourse operator the Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE), said in an interview that about P160 billion worth of capital-raising activities is expected next year, higher than the expected P120 billion this year.

“Next year, we’re going to ramp it up to P150 billion to P160 billion worth of capital raising,” Mr. Monzon said.

“I projected a capital raising of P160 billion [in 2023]. We’re only going to hit about P120 billion,” he added.

As of end-September, the PSE said that total capital raised was at P91.88 billion, of which 58.4% were from follow-on offerings, followed by private placements at 21.9%, stock rights offerings at 15%, and initial public offerings (IPOs) at 4.7%.   

China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said in a Viber message that the PSE’s main index could hit the 7,000 level next year on the back of a better interest rate environment.

“There are reasons to be optimistic about the equity market next year, and I see a reasonable chance that the index will reach the 7,000 level,” Mr. Colet said.

“There are potentially three major drivers of better market performance: first, a dovish shift in monetary policy that creates a more favorable interest rate environment; second, higher economic growth on the back of improved domestic and external demand; and third, implementation of capital markets reforms, such as the proposed reduction of the stock transaction tax to 0.10%,” he added.

As of the Dec. 15 close, the PSE index rose 67.96 points or 1.06% to 6,478.44 while the broader all shares index improved by 14.59 points or 0.43% to 3,409.55.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message that there is a good chance for market conditions to improve next year and hit the 7,000 level.

“There is a good chance for market conditions to improve so some local listed companies could revive share sale and IPO plans in 2024 as they can sell shares at the highest possible price especially if the Fed starts cutting rates in 2024, [which] would reduce borrowing costs, spur more investments, increase profits and boost stock market valuations, on top of the further recovery of the economy,” Mr. Ricafort said.

Mr. Ricafort added that higher investment valuations for the local stock market are expected following the government’s move in July to lift the state of public health emergency due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.   

“This boosted employment and generated more business opportunities, all of which would help support higher investment valuations,” Mr. Ricafort said.

He warned that although the lifting improved revenues, “these could be offset by still relatively higher prices and still relatively higher interest rates.”   

Alvin D. Lao, president and chief executive officer of listed oleochemicals and specialty food ingredients manufacturer D&L Industries, Inc., said that next year is expected to be better as interest rates are seen to ease. 

“It is possible that next year would be quite different because one thing that happened this year is that interest rates went up by a lot. When interest rates rapidly change, definitely it’s disruptive. In this case, when interest rates go up so much, financing becomes very expensive,” Mr. Lao said in an interview. 

“For next year, even though the conditions are similar to where we are now, the increase in rates is not as bad anymore because we’re starting at a higher level. So for next year, I don’t think there’s a chance that interest rates will go up even more. From that perspective, next year would be better than this year,” he added.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Dec. 14 decided to keep its key rate unchanged at 6.5% for a second straight meeting but signaled a “tighter-for-longer” policy until inflation expectations have become more firmly anchored.    

“The Monetary Board continues to see the need to keep monetary policy settings sufficiently tight to allow inflation expectations to settle more firmly within the target range,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said in a statement.

The country’s headline inflation slowed to 4.1% in November compared with 4.9% in October. The inflation figure for November signaled the 20th consecutive month that inflation exceeded the central bank’s 2-4% target range. Inflation averaged 6.2% during the January-to-November period. 

Henry D. Antonio, president and chief executive officer of listed construction firm EEI Corp., said that 2024 would be a different year for listed companies, citing the resurgence of the US economy.

“I think next year would be different for listed companies because the US has already started to get on this run. The US always has a significant impact on the equities market. If the rates start easing, confidence will return,” Mr. Antonio said in an interview.

The US Federal Reserve opted to maintain its benchmark overnight borrowing rate at the 5.25% to 5.5% range on the back of easing inflation. It also announced that there would be at least three rate cuts next year. 

In terms of IPOs, analysts and stakeholders predict about four stock launches next year.

PSE’s Mr. Monzon said the possible listings consist of Sy-led SM Prime Holdings, Inc.’s real estate investment trust (REIT) IPO, as well as companies in the mining, industrial, and food sectors.

“As of now, we have about four big IPOs in line [for next year],” Mr. Monzon said.

For 2023, the PSE saw three conducted IPOs, namely: Alternergy Holdings Corp. in March, Upson International Corp. in April, and Repower Energy Development Corp. in July.

Eduardo V. Francisco, president of top investment house BDO Capital and Investment Corp., projected that the PSE could see two to three IPOs next year. 

“Realistically, I see about two to three IPOs,” Mr. Francisco said in an interview.   

“Five IPOs are already optimistic because [the] first half [of next year] will be muted if rates are still high. If the rates don’t go down, no one would do an IPO because the yield is too high. Those (IPOs) might all come in the second half of next year,” he added. 

EEI’s Mr. Antonio projected that IPOs could come by the latter part of 2024, adding that the local bourse has been “very resilient.” 

“We will see more IPOs coming in. Probably not in the beginning of next year, maybe towards the end of next year is what I would expect. But the nice thing is that the Philippines is very resilient in terms of the market,” Mr. Antonio said. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Colet said that more IPOs and equity deals are projected in 2024 but warned that risks such as hawkish monetary policy and geopolitical tensions could hamper the projection. 

“Given this backdrop, we can expect IPOs and equity deals next year, especially as interest rates start to move down. Delistings are not out of the picture, but hopefully, we see more listings,” Mr. Colet said. 

“As always, there are risks. Among those we should watch out for are a hawkish monetary policy overshoot that stuns economic growth, a failure by China to shore up the world’s second-largest economy, and geopolitical flareups or natural calamities that severely destabilize supply chains and financial markets,” he added.