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When growth forecasts fail

FREEPIK

LAST Monday’s issue of the BusinessWorld in big, bold font screamed that “GDP growth likely slowed in Q4 — poll.” With 20 analysts sharing their fearless forecasts, ranging from a low of 3.6% to a high of 5.8% for the last quarter of 2023, the median forecast stood at 5.7%. For the whole year 2023 forecasts, we saw a low of 5% and a high of 5.8%, with the median hovering at 5.5% — all below the official target of 6-7%.

Who else stepped forward to share his insights and prognosis?

Last Sunday, it was Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona who essayed his thoughts and said: “I think it’s going to be better than the third quarter because the second quarter was an aberration in terms of growth.” He must be referring to that quarter’s 4.3% growth due to the high commodity prices, the lagged effects of interest rate hikes, the decline in government spending, and slower global economic growth. But except for the fact that the second quarter 2023 did not benefit from election spending one year earlier, all the other factors for the slowdown continue to hold until today.

But as early as the third quarter, the growth momentum had quickened to 5.9%. Our economic managers must have made some progress in their commitment to accelerate the execution of government programs and projects, pursue fiscal stimulus activities and implement various mitigants to the effects of natural calamities like typhoons and heavy monsoon rains. They had to assure the Filipino people that something would be done to reverse the huge deceleration of economic growth in the second quarter. In particular, public spending was intensified so that even before the third quarter was over, the Budget department announced that some P4.7 trillion, or 90% of the entire 2023 budget, had been released to various agencies of government. By the end of September, some P5.12 trillion or 97% was released. There was practically nothing left for the last quarter of this year.

The problem is that in the interim before the announcement of the fourth quarter growth last Wednesday, we would always be assured that while difficult, it would not be impossible to hit even the lower end of the 6-7% target. Growth expectations were being managed although various analysts’ polls were showing more pessimism. Maybe not too many realized that it was indeed impossible to hit because a last quarter minimum growth of 7.4% was required to deliver on those ambitious growth targets.

Well, of the 20 analysts who predicted that growth in the fourth quarter would slow down, the announcement by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) of the Q4 GDP and the whole year 2023 output growth proved half of them to be too optimistic. They must have been captivated by the sirens’ song. They projected fourth-quarter growth rates higher than the actual Q4 output growth of 5.6% compared to the final third quarter 6% growth. Only one of the other 10 hit it spot on at 5.6%, while the rest projected between 3.6% and 5.5%.

For the whole year 2023, the PSA validated that five analysts got it right at 5.6%. Another five were one percentage point on either side of the actual number, 5.5% and 5.7%. To be fair, everyone was quite close to reality in their macroeconomic analysis.

There was some convergence as to reduced demand and consumer spending in the last three months of 2023. Feeble export growth due to sluggish global output would not allow higher levels of production and export to traditional markets. We never expected that some would argue that government spending would pick up when only a few drops were literally left in the national budget in the last quarter. Actual government spending decelerated sharply to 1.8% after a third quarter pick up of 6.7%. The full year contribution of the government trickled down to 0.4%.

We find it incredible to hear the explanation of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) that “it was intentional that growth of government spending was not high in 2023 because we want to achieve that fiscal consolidation which means lowering the fiscal deficit and the government debt.” This contradicts their press statements for the last three quarters which assured us that catch-up plans would be implemented and infra, social protection, education, and livelihood projects would be accelerated. We know that fiscal consolidation may be advanced by growing revenues to fund higher expenditure to attain two simultaneous objectives: sustain high economic growth and avoid higher fiscal deficit and public debt.

How then does one pursue build, better, and more in the context of growth, growth, and growth with modest spending?

Our own take is that what also worked against all economies of this world are the global headwinds. In 2023, global growth stalled from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023. Indeed, our exports were hit seriously as they accounted for a sizeable share of GDP. That’s why we find the recent upgrade of the Philippines’ 2024 economic growth by the IMF counter-intuitive because of their expectation of a stronger recovery in investments and exports.

But the IMF itself, in the World Economic Outlook, anticipates a further deceleration of 2.9% global growth in 2024 from last year’s 3%.

With it, domestic manufacturing and processing output could be one of the collateral costs. What is happening in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are not exactly helping expand global trade and investment. Oil prices remained precarious in the last quarter to this day, and therefore we should expect high inflation to persist and pull down even our domestic economic performance through mostly lower consumer spending. Uncertainty in the world produces reticence in investment and production, the propensity to pursue business activities and give jobs to people.

We have other reasons to be less optimistic about growth last year.

El Niño is one big elephant in the room. We are not sure if we have been at all bothered enough by the reported prolonged dry spell to take more decisive action. We wish to be proven wrong but already crop production may not bring in the expected harvest to produce positive growth this year. The last quarter of last year simply eked out a small positive. In addition, swine production is hamstrung by the sustained onslaught of the African Swine Fever in at least 134 barangays in 58 municipalities. We don’t know whether the reported fish deficit in the last quarter of 2023 could spill over to 2024.

Last quarter’s purchasing managers index (PMI) also pointed to lower levels compared to year-ago levels. With a good correlation to actual economic performance, the PMI is a good predictor of future growth.

If indeed high inflation restrained consumption and investment, the lagged effects of recent wage adjustments in practically all regions in the country could have also reined in business activities in the last quarter.

Yes, only Vietnam seemed to have overtaken us in growth performance in 2023 to join the fastest growing economies in the world and in Asia. But we still have a lot of catching up to do as a result of the deep recession we sustained in 2020 due to the pandemic. We declined by more than 10% and frustrated our plan to quickly break out of the lower middle-income trap. Economic scarring is real, and it is felt in our labor market and educational institutions. We have a poverty of skills and quality education.

We reiterate that beyond that, downside risks to growth appear to be dominant. El Niño will be prolonged until the end of the first half of 2024; oil prices could surge again; the political upheaval associated with the Philippine Charter change is not only a turn off, but also a killjoy; the ongoing China-Philippine territorial disputes over the West Philippine Sea could have some unwanted economic effects; the uncertainty surrounding the next US Fed move; and of course, the broadening geo-economic fragmentation could put a cap on our external trade and investment.

When our economic forecasts fail, it is better to look at the economic analysis underlying those quantitative outcomes for direction, for broad guidance.

Considering the so-called degrees of freedom when doing those forecasts, we would say they did not fail. They just missed the point.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Passengers on epic cruise sail into minor stardom

VALPARAISO, Chile — Passengers on a nine-month cruise have become unlikely stars on TikTok and Instagram, with thousands following their epic voyage and updates on daily life on board the Serenade of the Seas.

Wannabe cruisers have flocked to social media to follow the passengers’ adventures on Royal Caribbean’s “Ultimate World Cruise,” lapping up footage of sightseeing on the more than 60 country trip as well as the more banal details of life on board.

Nancy and Mike Jacobs, a couple from Michigan, in the United States, now have more than 63,000 followers on TikTok.

Their content ranges from a rough journey through the Drake Passage between Cape Horn and Antarctica to answering questions such as “How do you get prescriptions?”

“We’re micro famous, we’re not famous,” Nancy told Reuters onshore in Valparaiso, Chile.

“For us it’s the trip of a lifetime, but we did not know so many other people would be interested,” Mike said.

For those wondering about the prescriptions, Nancy has a nine-month supply for one and a paper prescription for the other that the medical facility on board supplies.

Posts like that, with the hashtag “ultimateworldcruise,” have clocked up over 360 million views on social media since it set sail from Miami on Dec. 10.

Laura Jackson, deputy head of travel at the Times and Sunday Times, said it was the mix of exotic locations and the mundane that was compelling — plus the speed and volume of the posts, with the advent of faster internet on board.

“We want to see people doing their laundry, we want to see people just sitting on deck having a nice time,” she said. “(It’s) basically no-drama drama.”

While the Jacobs now have tens of thousands of followers, some passengers were already content creators.

Amike Oosthuizen from South Africa, who has 285,000 followers on TikTok, posts about the places she is visiting, her make-up routine, and the food.

Tickets to see Machu Picchu in Peru, Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, and the Great Wall of China in one trip did not come cheap, with prices starting at around $54,000.

Brandee Lake, a 46-year-old from Los Angeles who is on board with her family, called the experience “priceless.”

“The best part of a cruise is going to sleep and waking up in a new country,” she said. One of her videos has been viewed more than 2.7 million times so far.

Although the posts have been likened to reality TV, followers looking for the next Big Brother will be disappointed, the Jacobs say.

“It’s really not, it’s a group of people who love to travel, who love to meet new friends, to see the world,” Mike said. — Reuters

Basic Energy to conduct studies for 50-MW solar project in Pangasinan

BASIC ENERGY Corp. (BEC) is set to conduct distribution impact and asset studies for its potential 50-megawatt (MW) solar power project with its partner Pangasinan I Electric Cooperative (PANELCO I), the company said on Thursday.

In a regulatory filing, the listed energy company said it signed a memorandum of understanding with PANELCO I on Jan. 30.

The deal was to conduct a distribution impact study (DIS) and a distribution asset study (DAS) on the PANELCO I distribution utilities.

“The DIS and DAS are integral to optimize distribution networks and enhance reliability of PANELCO I’s current infrastructure. Furthermore, the DIS and DAS also ensures seamless integration of renewable energy resources into PANELCO I’s infrastructure, integral to BEC’s solar power project within the service area of PANELCO I,” Basic Energy said.

The planned studies are aimed to assess the capability of PANELCO I’s transmission systems and substations and to accommodate the solar power plant’s production, the company said.

The two parties also seek to “gain insights into the current state of the transmission system, identifying requisite improvements for optimal performance aligned with the solar power plant’s energy production.”

The planned solar power project will come in two phases with the development of the 10 MW capacity and BESS on the first phase and capacity of around 40 MW on the second phase. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

On Monday, Basic Energy announced that its board had approved the partnership with Japanese renewable energy company Renova, Inc. for the joint development of the proposed 50-MW Mabini wind power project in Batangas.

The Mabini wind power project covers 4,860 hectares in the Mabini Peninsula. It is expected to operate and deliver power to the grid by 2027.

Shares of Basic Energy fell by 2.17% or P0.005 to close at P0.225 apiece. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Domestic claims of nonbank financial firms rise in Q3 2023

FREEPIK

DOMESTIC CLAIMS of non-bank financial firms climbed year on year in the third quarter of 2023 due to higher claims from depository firms, the central government, and other sectors, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

Preliminary data from the BSP’s Other Financial Corporations Survey (OFCS) showed domestic claims of nonbanks rose to P8.82 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, 17.8% higher than the P7.48 trillion seen in the same period in 2022.

It also rose by 2.4% from the P8.61 trillion logged in the previous quarter.

The BSP said the year-on-year growth of nonbanks’ domestic claims is attributable to the rise of its claims on depository corporations (DCs), the private sector, and the central government.

The OFCS is an analytical survey of the assets and liabilities of the OFC sector. It uses standardized report forms as required by the International Monetary Fund.

These include individual financial statements from insurance firms, holding companies, government financial institutions, investment companies, and other financial intermediaries, as well as consolidated financial statements from trust institutions.

“In particular, the sector’s claims on depository corporations expanded amid the increase in its bank deposits and holdings of bank-issued equity shares,” the BSP said.

Claims on depository corporations surged by 40.7% year on year to P2.52 trillion and increased by 4.3% from the level seen in the second quarter of 2023.

Meanwhile, claims on other sectors rose by 9.9% annually to P4.4 trillion. It also increased by 1.2% from the previous quarter. Other sectors include the state and local government, public nonfinancial firms, and the private sector.

The year-on-year expansion was driven by the OFCs’ claims on the private sector, which jumped by 10% to P4.38 trillion in the third quarter last year.

The BSP noted that claims on the private sector increased as investments in equity shares issued by other nonfinancial firms and loans to the household sector grew.

“Moreover, the sector’s claims on the central government expanded on account of its higher investments in government-issued debt securities,” the BSP said.

OFCs’ net claims on the central government grew by 15.1% year on year to P2.17 trillion in the third quarter and rose by 3% from the prior three-month period.

By component, claims on the other sectors, specifically the other nonfinancial firms, comprised the bulk of the OFCs’ domestic claims during the quarter, followed by claims on DCs and the central government.

The other nonfinancial corporations refer to private corporations and quasi-corporations whose principal activity is the production of market goods or nonfinancial services.

Meanwhile, net foreign assets of OFCs rose by 47.1% annually to P369.643 billion in the third quarter from P251.249 billion in the same period a year earlier. It also grew by 6.1% versus the prior quarter.

Claims of OFCs on nonresidents rose by 19.8% year on year to P544.895 billion. Liabilities to nonresidents declined by 13.9% to P175.252 billion. — Keisha B. Ta-asan

High time to reactivate the No Contact Apprehension Policy

PHILIPPINE STAR/JESSE BUSTOS

THE PHILIPPINES recently earned another badge of notoriety when Metro Manila was ranked as having the worst traffic situation among metropolitan areas across the globe, according to the TomTom Traffic Index 2023.

Metro Manila commuters and motorists lose an average of 117 hours per year to road congestion during rush hours, and a stretch of 10 kilometers takes Filipinos an average of 25 minutes and 30 seconds to negotiate, the Index said.

Reacting to this announcement, the government, through the Department of Transportation, acknowledged the challenge and said it would expedite its road projects to improve commuter experience and address worsening traffic.

Traffic is indeed a menace to Filipino motorists and commuters alike, who all want to get to and from their workplaces or schools in the fastest, not to mention most affordable and convenient, way possible.

Such a distinction, too, does little to improve the Philippines’ image as an ideal destination in the eyes of investors. Imagine productivity being hampered by all that time wasted on the road, when people could already be at their respective workstations getting real work done. The supply chains of all industries are also affected by the costly delays that eventually translate to higher costs of goods and services.

Then again, even before the release of the TomTom Index, heavy traffic blighted Metro Manila for years. This has prompted initiatives from the private sector to collaborate with the government to improve the situation. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are ideal for big-scale projects that require substantial capital and technical expertise for more efficient implementation of projects benefiting the public.

A PPP initiative applicable to the current situation is the No Contact Apprehension Policy (NCAP), adopted by some LGUs beginning 2018. Under the NCAP, closed circuit television (CCTV) cameras identify and apprehend traffic violators using videos and photos. If a violation is detected, the local government unit where the violation occurred issues traffic citation tickets, mailing them to the vehicle’s registered owners. And then, if the violator does not pay the fine within seven days, their vehicles would not be allowed to be registered.

The laudable initiative ensures comprehensive enforcement of traffic rules, promoting order on the road through digital technology. The NCAP also advances good governance. Because everything is digital and transparent, it significantly minimizes opportunities for corruption, precisely because it does away with contact — there will no longer be a chance for bribes to change hands from the violator to the corrupt traffic enforcer.

In fact, several LGUs had been implementing the NCAP to noticeable results. Unfortunately, in August 2022, the Supreme Court issued a temporary restraining order against the NCAP’s implementation because of three petitions from various groups that challenged it.

But arguing on behalf of the LGUs, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, and the Land Transportation Office, the Office of the Solicitor General said the three petitions were ruefully inadequate because the groups — transport groups Kapit, Pasang Masda, Altodap, and the Alliance of Concerned Transport Organizations — had no locus standi to challenge the policy and failed to allege actual threat or threatened injury. Another petitioner, a lawyer, filed a case that arose from his own violation of traffic rules.

Solicitor General Menardo Guevarra said the groups’ lack of standing cannot be cured by an erroneous invocation of the rule on third-party standing. “This rule prohibits one from challenging the constitutionality of the statute based solely on the violation of the rights of third persons not before the court,” he said in an interview. Meanwhile, the NCAP’s alleged violation of privacy should be raised with the National Privacy Commission, not the High Court.

The Supreme Court has now concluded hearing the arguments to the challenge. A final decision is expected soon.
*****

In September 2022, just after the TRO was imposed on the worthy PPP project, Pulse Asia conducted a survey and found that eight in 10 Filipinos agreed that the NCAP is effective in instilling driver discipline and improving road safety.

This result demonstrates that Filipinos are aware of avenues to improve the management and safety of our roads, and to enforce traffic regulations devoid of the usual practices of extortion and bribery. The NCAP also maximizes the use of digital technologies in running the affairs of government. This is aligned with the policy thrusts of no less than President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. that the Philippines should pursue the path to inclusive and sustainable economic growth through digital transformation.

Who, then, would oppose an innovative, simple, logical, transparent, and efficient way to enforce discipline and safety on the road, conduct government transactions more efficiently, and minimize opportunities for corruption thereby advancing our efforts in good governance?

We await the decision of the Supreme Court on the NCAP and are hopeful that after listening to and weighing the arguments from both sides of the case, and after a careful consideration of what is at stake — not only for this PPP project but also the implications on the mobility experience of Filipinos and the drive to achieve transparency and accountability in government — the High Court would finally lift the TRO and pave the way for its reactivation.

Victor Andres “Dindo” C. Manhit is the president of the Stratbase ADR Institute.

Bob Marley biopic brings his message to new generations, son says

KINGSLEY Ben-Adir in a scene from Bob Marley: One Love. - IMDB.COM

LONDON — Bob Marley’s family hopes a new biographical movie about the superstar singer, who popularized reggae with his catchy tunes and spiritual and socially conscious lyrics, will help revive his legacy.

Bob Marley: One Love is produced by his wife Rita Marley and their children Ziggy and Cedella and executive produced by Brad Pitt. Directed by King Richard filmmaker Reinaldo

Marcus Green, it sees British actors Kingsley Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch taking on the challenge of bringing Bob and Rita Marley to life on the screen.

“(It was made) mainly to spread his message more, to put his message into a different medium; film, to reach another generation,” said Ziggy Marley as he attended the film’s premiere in London on Tuesday.

“One love is something positive out there in the world. That’s what it’s about, the message.”

Marley, whose hits with The Wailers included “No Woman, No Cry,” “Jamming,” and “I Shot the Sheriff,” was born in Jamaica in 1945. He died from cancer in 1981, aged 36.

The movie opens in Kingston in 1976, with Marley planning a peace concert in response to deep political divisions and violence. It sees the musician moving to London after both he and Rita survive an assassination attempt and recording the hit album Exodus. Flashbacks offer insight into Marley’s childhood and youth.

Ben-Adir, who played Malcolm X in One Night in Miami and Barack Obama in The Comey Rule, prepared to play Marley while on the set of Barbie, in which he appeared as one of the Kens. Mastering Marley’s mannerisms and language, the Jamaican patois, was not an easy feat, the actor, 37, said.

“All of it, the language, the music, finding Bob’s true vulnerability. He was a tough man and he was a gentleman. There were so many colors to him,” he said.

“I don’t play music, so I had to learn everything about music. There was a lot to do and so when I was on a break, I just started in the Mojo Dojo Casa.”

Bob Marley: One Love is out in cinemas globally from Feb. 14. – Reuters

GOCC regulator halts PAGCOR casino layoffs, senator says

THE GOVERNANCE Commission for GOCCs (GCG) has barred the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. (PAGCOR) from laying off more than 700 employees of a casino in Malate, a senator said on Thursday.

In a statement, Senator Rafael T. Tulfo said GCG Chairman Marius P. Corpus said in a meeting on Wednesday that the government-owned or -controlled corporation (GOCC) regulator has “prohibited” PAGCOR from firing workers from Casino Filipino — New Coast in Malate, because its redundancy plan has not been approved.

The layoffs were announced after the casino turned over its operations to a Hong Kong-based gaming company.

Mr. Corpus said the GCG is also working on a salary increase for PAGCOR employees, after Mr. Tulfo raised the issue of many casino workers being paid below minimum wage.

The GCG Chairman, GCG Commissioner Geraldine Marie Martinez along with other GCG employees, met with the senator on Wednesday to discuss casino worker pay and the retrenchment plan.

In a Senate Amusement and Games Committee hearing on Jan. 25, the senator urged the GCG to fix its compensation system for casino workers, who complained of insufficient pay at the hearing.

In August, PAGCOR announced the privatization of 45 casinos by the third quarter of 2025, which is expected to generate between P60 billion and P80 billion in revenue.

Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian has said that the privatization will make up for the lost revenue from the shutdown of Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators after it was reported that PAGCOR failed to collect P2.2 billion in un-paid dues from these companies. — John Victor D. Ordoñez

PSEi seen to end at 7,665.26 in 2024

THE Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) could end in the range of 6,998.71 to 7,665.26 this year, led by strong economic projections, according to brokerage firm Philstocks Financial, Inc.

“We project the local equities market to end within 6,998.71 to 7,665.26 this 2024, presenting an 8.51% to 18.84% potential upside from end-2023 levels. This is hinged on the assumption that the earnings per share of our index member companies will grow by 5% to 15%,” Philstocks said in a report on Thursday.

The projection could be met based on factors such as slower inflation and stronger economic growth, it said.

“The robust economy is still expected to help in our corporates’ profitability, mainly through the strengthening of their revenues. The continuous growth of the economy is expected to lead to higher incomes on an aggregate level which in turn would sustain the demand for our corporates’ products,” it said.

“A slowdown in inflation is also seen to help in boosting revenues especially of our consumer leaning companies. Rising input costs and high interest expenses however are seen as risks to company bottom lines,” it added.

The Philippine Statistics Authority recently announced that the country’s GDP expanded by 5.6% in 2023, below the government’s 6% to 7% target and slower than the 7.6% increase in 2022.

However, Philstocks said that some of the risks to its projection include the threat of higher inflation and the higher interest rates.

“Our forecast may not be met this year if economic growth sharply decelerates; inflation does not fall within or near the government’s 2%-4% target; the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas does not ease its monetary policy this year; and the Federal Reserve does not follow up on its hint of doing three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year,” the brokerage firm said.

The country’s inflation rate averaged 6% in 2023, higher than the 5.8% recorded in 2022, despite dropping to 3.9% in December.

On Thursday, the benchmark PSEi fell by 23.43 points or 0.35% to 6,623.01 while the broader all shares index retreated by 13.46 points or 0.38% to 3,486.03. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

The flight beyond

GREG RAKOZT - UNSPLASH

“I am circling around God, around the ancient tower, and I have been circling for a thousand years; And I still don’t know if I am a falcon or a great song.” — Rainer Maria Rilke

MAN has always wanted to soar freely like an eagle above the clouds. He searches for his place in the sun.

Icarus attempted to take flight centuries ago. The experiment failed when he flew too high. The wax in his wings melted. In a figurative sense, he was weighed down by his ambitions and enthusiasm to surpass his human limitation.

“I live my life in growing orbits which move out over the things of the world. Perhaps I can never achieve the last, but that will be my attempt,” the philosopher Rilke wrote.
Man can transcend the boundaries and barriers that ground and restrict him. As he explores the unfamiliar and unknown terrain outside the comfort zone of existence, he achieves confidence and courage.

By releasing his energies in extrinsic endeavors and external concerns, he can live meaningfully.

Traveling to the wilderness of a jungle, to the icy fjords, and the endless deserts of distant continents are a prelude to the ultimate safari. In ascending order, man aims to conquer the solar system, the galaxy, the universe.

A pulsating, energetic spirit inhabits every creative individual. It animates him and propels him forward. The practical and parochial concerns of his environment cannot restrain the visionary. He continually seeks new inspiration and replenishes his resources in fulfilling work.

The thirst for the unusual and the inventive leads man to astonishing insights and discoveries.

Initially, there may be innumerable logistical constraints that restrict a man’s physical journeys. Not everyone has the wherewithal to pursue adventure. His creativity finds expression in other venues, such as a body of artistic work or in scientific research and inventions.

The artist, inventor, scientist, professor expands his world by delving into the realm of the spirit and ideas. Dreams and ideas are interpreted and concretized, in the unique process of creation.

Man always wants something new, big, different. He wishes to conquer the impossible, to solve the most difficult equation, to scale the highest peak, to swim across the ocean, to plunge into the unfathomable depths, and to soar beyond the moon and reach a distant planet.

The unknown is exotic, an irresistible challenge. The pursuit of the elusive muse is exciting in its unpredictability.

Risk is part of every game. The thrill of danger enhances the feeling of adventure. It makes the taste of triumph sweeter.

Five decades ago, in July 1969, man’s historic moon walk was the first stunning gravity-defying expedition. It was a giant step for mankind. Neil Armstrong was the modern Icarus triumphant who dazzled the world. He planted the American flag on the surface of the moon and launched the international race to supremacy in outer space. The rest is history.

*****

An inner force makes the individual stretch his psychic and physical wings. The mysterious energy stimulates the mind to conceive and create immortal works in music, literature, art, dance, and theater. Among the great artworks are La Giaconda (Mona Misa) by Leonardo da Vinci at the Louvre; Genesis by Michelangelo in the Sistine Chapel; Shakespeare’s plays and sonnets; the concertos by Beethoven, Mozart, Chopin, Rachmaninoff, and Tchaikovsky’s The Nutcracker ballet; contemporary dances by Martha Graham and Alvin Ailey; and the designs of Dior, Schiaparelli, and Chanel.

An inspiration leads to a moment of insight and a new dimension. Thus, man discovers a scientific formula, a vaccine to eradicate the disease and control the pandemic. He devises a high-tech computer, a gadget to help the blind hear sounds and “see” what is in front of them, a High Frequency Ultrasound (HIFU) machine to control and stop tremors of Parkinson’s disease patients without invasive brain surgery, a laser beam, a hypersonic vehicle that would change the world forever.

Our lives are changing because of new technology. We are enriched by the study of the ancient classics, mythology, philosophy, and anthropology.

The permutations are endless in the realm of the mind. It is man’s responsibility to tap into these infinite resources and utilize them for the common good. Not for selfish interests and material gain.

Man continues to discover and interpret diverse esoteric ideas into tangible achievements to benefit humanity.

By working for peace, by channeling his abundant talents into making the world a better place to live, man ascends to a higher level of consciousness.

Man is evolving into the being the Creator originally intended him to be. And this flight will take him to heights he has never dreamed of.

 

MARIA VICTORIA RUFINO is an artist, writer and businesswoman. She is president and executive producer of Maverick Productions.
mavrufino@gmail.com

Alec Baldwin pleads not guilty to involuntary manslaughter charge

ACTOR Alec Baldwin in a scene from Rust. — IMDB

TAOS, New Mexico — Actor Alec Baldwin pleaded not guilty on Wednesday to charges of involuntary manslaughter in the 2021 on-set shooting death of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins during filming of the Western movie Rust in New Mexico.

Court documents showed Baldwin, 65, entered his plea as he waived his right to an arraignment nearly two weeks after a grand jury indicted the actor on Jan. 19, reviving a criminal case that had been dismissed months earlier.

The Emmy-winning performer, who starred in the hit NBC television comedy 30 Rock, was allowed to remain free without posting bond under the arraignment waiver filed with the First Judicial District Court in Santa Fe.

The case, which has sparked debate about firearms safety in the production of movies and television, has little or no precedent as an instance of a Hollywood star facing criminal prosecution for an on-set fatal shooting.

Baldwin has denied responsibility for Hutchins’ death, insisting he was told the gun was “cold,” meaning it contained only blank rounds, and that the weapon fired without him pulling the trigger.

The original charges were dropped over questions of whether the reproduction Colt .45 revolver Baldwin was rehearsing with could have been modified to allow the gun to go off by itself.

Prosecutors said they sought the grand jury indictment after an independent forensic test found the gun would not fire unless the trigger was pulled.

The same bullet that killed Hutchins on Oct. 21, 2021, also wounded director Joel Souza.
Baldwin’s plea came days after special prosecutor Kari Morrissey said in a court filing that photos and other evidence showed the live round was brought on set by the movie’s weapons handler, Hannah Gutierrez.

According to courtroom testimony and police records, the pistol was handled by Gutierrez before it was picked up by the film’s assistant director, David Halls, who told Baldwin the gun was “cold.”

Gutierrez faces a Feb. 21 trial on separate involuntary manslaughter charges. Halls entered a plea deal and received a six-month suspended sentence on a charge of negligent use of a deadly weapon.

But the question of how a live round, strictly prohibited on film sets, was loaded into Baldwin’s gun remains at the center of the cases against Gutierrez and Baldwin, who also is a producer on the film.

Prosecutors said they had photos of live rounds on set as early as Oct. 10, 2021, 11 days before Hutchins was killed.

“The investigation conducted by the special prosecutor has developed substantial evidence that Ms. Gutierrez brought the live rounds on set when she first began work on the film,” Morrissey wrote in Monday’s filing.

Morrissey cited images of live rounds from filming and others from photos Gutierrez took. The prosecutor said all six live rounds found on set appeared to have come from a box of dummy rounds that Gutierrez told detectives she brought onto the location.

Gutierrez’s attorney Jason Bowles said prosecutors were “incorrect” in their assumptions. “The evidence will come out at trial,” he said in a statement to Reuters.

In police video, Gutierrez says the tray of rounds inside the box could easily have been swapped during production from a box that was not hers. — Reuters

Robinsons Retail net income down 29.5% in 2023

GOKONGWEI-LED Robinsons Retail Holdings, Inc. (RRHI) reported a 29.5% decline in its attributable net income in 2023 to P4.13 billion from P5.85 billion.

The attributable net income in 2023 declined due to the “reversal of foreign exchange gains in 2022 to a loss in 2023, following the appreciation of the peso vis-à-vis the US dollar,” the company said in a regulatory filing.

“Also the reversal of the equitized earnings in 2022 to a loss in 2023 with the derecognition of Robinsons Bank’s net income under equitized earnings following the merger with the Bank of the Philippine Islands, and losses from start-up investments,” it added.

RRHI’s full-year net sales improved by 7.4% to P192.1 billion, led by a 3.9% growth in same-store sales.

“[The growth is] despite inflationary pressures and a high base in 2022 with the economic reopening. Supermarkets and drugstores were the company’s main growth drivers,” it said.

The company’s gross profit rose by 7.9% to P45.6 billion led by “assortment shifts and sustained penetration of private label brands” while its core net earnings grew by 0.6% to P5.6 billion.

“The strategic initiatives we put in place in 2023 such as increasing market coverage and improving store efficiency proved instrumental in maintaining our growth trajectory despite the challenging operating environment,” RRHI President and Chief Executive Officer Robina Gokongwei-Pe said.

“As we move forward in 2024, we are optimistic that we can capture the expected recovery in consumer confidence, particularly as inflation pressures begin to subside. We remain committed to expanding our business prudently, balancing the needs of our retail customers with the interests of our diverse stakeholders,” she added.

As of end-2023, RRHI operates 2,393 stores. These consist of 349 supermarkets, 1,054 drugstores, 50 department stores, 230 DIY stores, 408 convenience stores, and 302 specialty stores. The company also has more than 2,100 franchised stores of The Generics Pharmacy.

Shares of RRHI rose by 65 centavos or 1.84% to P35.90 apiece on Thursday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

FINEX President Toti Bengzon and transformation

The Philippines is forecasted to be a high middle-income country within this decade and the 18th largest economy in the world by 2050. This growth is expected to be fueled by remittances, business process out-sourcing revenues, and the demographic dividend from a young population. Given the volatile environment filled with the complex issues that we face, 2024 FINEX President Augusto “Toti” Bengzon asked: “How can we achieve our growth agenda?”

President Toti was inspired by Andy Grove’s book Only the Paranoid Survive, which said: “A corporation is a living organism; it has to continue to shed its skin. Methods have to change. Focus has to change. Values have to change. The sum total of those changes is transformation”.

The real challenge is how we can achieve “transformational growth” in what is perhaps the inflection point that will either see us rise to expected economic success or muddle along with the rest of the world. “How do we make it happen?” President Toti then proposed three components that drive transformational growth: sustainability, diversity, and digitalization.”

The first component: sustainability. In the realm of ESG, environmental sustainability stands out as a pivotal pillar. The urgency to preserve our planet has never been more apparent, with climate change and environmental degradation posing existential threats.

The Philippine government, he said, has demonstrated its commitment on the global stage by signing key international agreements. The Kyoto Protocol in 2003 and the Paris Agreement in 2016 affirmed the government’s intention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. And more recently, it has actively participated in the Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings, including COP28, where nations come together to address global environmental challenges. These efforts underscore the country’s commitment to preserving biodiversity and fostering sustainability, nationally and internationally, and encourage us to integrate environmentally sustainable practices into our daily lives.

Diversity, he said, is the condition of having different elements or qualities. It is a growth enabler, fostering an inclusive environment that values and learns from diverse backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives. Recognizing the importance of diversity acts as a catalyst for innovation and untapped potential. Diverse teams bring fresh approaches to problem-solving, stimulating creativity and leading to more holistic solutions to complex challenges. He mentioned that studies show that companies with more diverse management teams had innovation revenues 19 percentage points higher than those with below average diversity scores. In addition, inclusive companies are 1.8 times more likely to be change-ready than their less inclusive peers. He mentioned Ayala Land, Inc. where he is treasurer and chief financial officer, and how it is now led by Meean Dy, the company’s first female chief executive officer in its 35-year history. He said the company is strategically incorporating talents and experts from various fields, including digitalization, HR, and hotel operations.

For digitalization, he said that in the rapidly evolving landscape of today’s global economy, it is not a mere choice but is imperative not only for growth, but also for survival and relevance. Nations and companies face complex challenges, ranging from managing vast amounts of data, ensuring efficient and transparent operations, and enhancing engagement with customers and stakeholders. Digitalization is the key to unlocking innovative solutions for these challenges.

How do sustainability, diversity, and digitalization lead to transformational growth? President Toti said sustainability guarantees our longevity and adaptability, diversity brings depth to our perspectives, fostering innovation and resilience, and digitalization, the backbone of modern enterprises, allows us to efficiently deliver new products and services, find new ways to engage customers, and turn them into lifelong partners.

The guest speaker at the FINEX inauguration was Mariana Zobel de Ayala, executive director of Ayala Corp. She spoke about the theme “Transformational Growth through Sustainability, Diversity and Digitalization” with great insights as a woman, a daughter, a sister, wife, mother, and a woman in business. She said: “Imagine it better and make it a reality. Act with future generations in mind, evolve, stay relevant and respond to the nation’s changing needs.” She also said that “transformational growth must come with a sense of purpose and imagining how growth can lead to a better world.”

With President Toti’s leadership, we can look forward to a vibrant FINEX year. Already, FINEX meetings are lined up with Maharlika Chairman Joel Consing on Feb. 21 and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona on March 20, among many exciting and relevant ones! Congratulations also to Wilson Tan, SGV Chairman and now FINEX Foundation president, and to Michael Guarin, who is now president of the FINEX Academy. It is truly an exciting year for FINEX, and I am hoping that we will all be transformed in 2024!

The views expressed herein are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of her office as well as FINEX.

FLOR G. TARRIELA was former PNB chairman and now serves as board advisor. A former undersecretary of Finance, she is lead independent director of Nickel Asia Corp., director of LTG, Inc. and FINEX. A gardener and an environmentalist, she founded Flor’s Garden in Antipolo, now an events destination.

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