Ransomware group Lockbit appears to have been hacked, analysts say

May 12, 2025 | 10:47 am

WASHINGTON – The ransom-seeking cybercriminals behind the extortion group Lockbit appear to have suffered a breach of their own, according to a rogue post to one of the group’s websites and security analysts who follow the gang.

On Wednesday one of Lockbit’s darkweb sites was replaced with a message saying, “Don’t do crime CRIME IS BAD xoxo from Prague” and a link to an apparent cache of leaked data.

Reuters could not immediately verify the data, which appeared to capture chats between the hackers and their victims, among other things. But others who sifted through the material told Reuters it appeared authentic.

“It’s legit,” said Jon DiMaggio, the chief security strategist with the cybersecurity company Analyst1.

Christiaan Beek, senior director of threat analytics at cybersecurity firm Rapid7, agreed the leak “looks really authentic.” He said he was struck by how it showed Lockbit’s hackers hustling even for modest payouts from small businesses.

“They attack everyone,” he said.

Reuters could not immediately reach Lockbit or establish who had apparently leaked their data. Some darkweb sites associated with Lockbit appeared to be inoperative on Thursday, displaying a note saying they would be “working soon.”

Lockbit is one of the world’s most prolific cyber extortion gangs – Mr. DiMaggio once called it “the Walmart of ransomware groups” – and it has survived past disruptions. Last year British and U.S. officials worked with a coalition of international law enforcement agencies to seize some of the gang’s infrastructure. A few days later, the group defiantly announced it was back online, saying, “I cannot be stopped.”

Behind the bravado, Mr. DiMaggio said this week’s hack was an embarrassment.

“I think it will hurt them and slow them down,” he said. – Reuters

Puregold OPMCON 2025 is Coming: Tickets drop this May at Tindahan ni Aling Puring Sari-Sari Store Convention

May 12, 2025 | 10:33 am

Puregold’s Nasa Atin Ang Panalo campaign continues to champion Original Pinoy Music, with partnerships from talented Filipino artists like P-Pop group SB19.

Mark your calendars! Ticket selling for Puregold OPMCON 2025 is happening on May 16 to 17 at the Tindahan ni Aling Puring Sari-Sari Store Convention at the World Trade Center in Pasay City.

The event gives Filipino music fans first dibs at passes to one of the country’s biggest cultural events of the year. Set for July 5 at the Philippine Arena, Puregold OPMCON 2025 will feature an unbeatable lineup of today’s brightest OPM superstars and Puregold collaborators—SB19, BINI, Flow G, Sunkissed Lola, G22, Skusta Clee, and KAIA—as part of its wildly successful Nasa Atin Ang Panalo campaign.

The chart-topping Nasa Atin Ang Panalo campaign, which featured the nation’s girl group BINI, returns bigger than ever this year.

The epic night of music, talent, and Pinoy pride is one of the high points of Nasa Atin Ang Panalo campaign’s second year as it continues to champion Original Pinoy Music.

Check out Nasa Atin Ang Panalo’s all-new roster of the most talked-about names in the Filipino music scene—G22, Skusta Clee, and KAIA—who will bring their own sound, grit, and panalo story to the stage.

G22, dubbed as P-POP’s alpha females, continues to stun audiences with their powerhouse vocals, intensity, and unstoppable energy. Since debuting in 2022, members AJ, Alfea, and Jaz have serially released a slew of hits such as “Bang,” “Boomerang,” “Limitless”—and their latest, “Pa-Pa-Pa-Palaban.”

G22’s music video collaboration with Puregold, “Pagpili,” dropped on April 9 and quickly racked up over 3 million views in just two weeks. The song’s empowering message reminds everyone to choose boldly and say it loud.

Meanwhile, Skusta Clee, one of the most influential names in Filipino hip-hop today, dropped a powerful track titled “Sari-Saring Kwento” on May 8, an explosive collaboration with fellow rap phenom Flow G, with sharp bars, infectious beats, and a message that cuts deep for every Pinoy listener.

Also joining the movement is KAIA, the five-member P-POP girl group known for striking visuals and emboldening anthems. Members Angela, Charice, Alexa, Sophia, and Charlotte are set to release their “Kaya Mo” music video on June 12—perfectly timed for Independence Day to celebrate Filipina pride, independence, and strength.

Puregold OPMCON 2025, featuring performances from SB19, BINI, G22, KAIA, Skusta Clee, Flow G, and Sunkissed Lola, will light up the Philippine Arena on July 5.

“Nasa Atin Ang Panalo has evolved into something more purposeful than a campaign. It’s now a crusade—one that celebrates the strength, dreams, and talents of Filipinos,” Ivy Hayagan-Piedad, Senior Marketing Manager of Puregold, shares. “Through this platform, we hope to showcase our homegrown artists and inspire Puregold members and customers as they relish original panalo music on a world-class stage.”

Ticket mechanics for OPMCON 2025 will be posted soon via Puregold’s official social media channels—so stay locked in and ready.

For more updates, subscribe now to Puregold Channel on YouTube, like @puregold.shopping on Facebook, follow @puregold_ph on Instagram and Twitter, and @puregoldph on TikTok.

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Hitting GDP goal may be ‘challenging’

May 12, 2025 | 12:34 am

Fish-Vendors-market-wc — ANALYSTS said easing inflation would boost consumption, which can support economic growth.

By Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

ACHIEVING ABOVE-6% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the rest of the year to meet the government’s target may be “challenging” with the global trade picture still uncertain due to the Trump administration’s evolving tariff policies, analysts said.

“It will certainly be challenging to achieve a 6.2% growth rate for the rest of the year, but it is still possible,” Ateneo School of Government Dean and Economics Professor Philip Arnold P. Tuaño said in an e-mail over the weekend. “Some of the downside risks for the Philippine economy remain the continued high levels of US tariffs, global political and security uncertainties especially in Europe and the Middle East which affect global demand for goods, and climate related shocks.”

“US President Donald J. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, trade wars, and other protectionist policies could still slow down global trade, investments, employment, and overall world economic growth that could slow down, indirectly, Philippine GDP growth,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message, but likewise added that the growth goal remains achievable.

The Philippine economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, slightly faster than the 5.3% growth in the prior three-month period but slower than the 5.9% pace in the same quarter last year, the government reported last week.

This was well below the government’s 6-8% growth target band for the year.

The weak growth came as gross capital formation growth was dampened by businesses’ anticipation of global trade uncertainties.

Since Mr. Trump was inaugurated in January, he has launched a series of protectionist policies, with one of them hiking import tariffs imposed on its major trading partners, including the Philippines. Countries are now negotiating with the US regarding the higher “reciprocal” tariffs, which have been suspended until July.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon said that GDP needs to expand by at least 6.2% in the remaining three quarters to reach 6% growth — the low end of the government’s target — by yearend.

Mr. Tuaño said Philippine economic growth could be lifted by stronger government spending in the coming months as the lifting of the election ban on public works would allow for the resumption of suspended state infrastructure projects.

In the first quarter, government spending jumped by 18.7% as agencies front-loaded public projects ahead of the ban that started on March 28.

An expected rebound in exports once the Trump administration concludes its tariff negotiations with its trading partners could also provide a boost as this could lead to a recovery in electronics demand, he said.

Both Mr. Tuaño and Mr. Ricafort said that easing inflation may help drive consumption to support the economy.

“While consumption growth in the first quarter of 2025 was at 5.3%, there are certain factors that are necessary to happen to ensure higher consumption growth in the coming quarters, including the sustained decline in inflation rates, lower interest rates and the continued growth in remittances,” Mr. Tuaño said.

“Government can support this by strengthening social protection and also increasing investments especially in the rural areas in order to ensure food supply and countryside incomes,” he said.

Mr. Ricafort added that the soft GDP growth in the first quarter and benign inflation would allow the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to cut benchmark rates further, which would support the economy.

The Monetary Board resumed its easing cycle last month with a 25-basis-point (bp) cut, bringing the policy rate to 5.5%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told Bloomberg last week that they are open to cutting rates by 75 bps more this year amid cooling inflation.

Budget Secretary and Development Budget Coordination Committee Chairperson Amenah F. Pangandaman on Friday said they remain hopeful that GDP growth could meet the 6-8% target this year.

“We still expect GDP to accelerate throughout the year as domestic demand strengthens, and public investments are sustained. This is even amidst global uncertainty, as domestic growth prospects supported by improving private consumption, including government infrastructure spending, provide a buffer against external headwinds,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

“We remain optimistic that the Philippines will meet its growth target for 2025 of 6-8%, especially as the government remains strongly committed to achieving our medium-term plans and long-term vision. Given the substantial 8.2% growth registered by the capital spending of the government — a testament to the successful implementation of public infrastructure projects — we are certain we can sustain our high-growth trajectory.”

‘LOWER GROWTH PATH’
Meanwhile, IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa was less positive.

“Hoping for a 6.2% growth rate in the remaining quarters of the year is overly optimistic and structurally blind to global and domestic realities,” Mr. Africa said in a Viber message over the weekend.

“The government mostly fails to achieve even the low end of its growth targets and has only been able to squeeze into its target ranges of GDP growth twice in the last decade. The government is still refusing to accept that the economy has shifted to a lower growth path from the average 6.4% growth in the 2010-2019 decade before the pandemic to just 5.6% in 2023-2024, considering the 2020-2022 years of lockdown and rebound as an aberration,” he added.

Mr. Africa warned that growth will continue to shift lower amid global disruptions and “persistent domestic structural economic weaknesses,” noting that both household and investment spending have remained low compared to pre-pandemic levels.

“Achieving 6.2% growth in the next quarters is not impossible but will require bold policies and structural transformation, not just optimism from mere statistical computations. Economic policies have to be redirected toward boosting domestic demand such as with real wage and income growth, more equity and redistribution, and expanded public services. Over the long term, stronger agricultural and Filipino industrial capacity is needed so that the growth achieved is not fragile, exclusionary and unsustainable,” he said.

Gov’t debt service bill plunges 66% in March

May 12, 2025 | 12:33 am

THE NATIONAL Government’s (NG) debt service bill plunged in March amid a decline in amortization payments, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said.

The latest data from the Treasury showed that payments made by the government for its obligations went down by 65.63% to P183.36 billion in March from P533.52 billion in the same month a year ago.

Month on month, however, debt service surged by 251.57% from the P52.15 billion in February.

Debt service refers to payments made by the NG for its domestic and foreign debt.

More than half or 51.94% of the March debt service bill was made up of amortization payments.

The government’s repayment of its loan principal or amortization declined by 79.41% to P95.24 billion in March from P462.58 billion a year ago.

This came as amortization on domestic debt plunged to just P138 million from P455.91 billion in the same month last year.

Meanwhile, principal payments for external obligations surged to P95.1 billion in March from P6.67 billion a year prior.

On the other hand, the National Government’s interest payments rose by 24.21% to P88.12 billion in March from P70.94 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Interest payments for domestic debt stood at P64.21 billion, up by 15.27% from P55.71 billion in March 2024.

Of this total, P40.42 billion went to interest payments for fixed-rate Treasury bonds, P19.18 billion for retail Treasury bonds, and P4.58 billion for Treasury bills.

Meanwhile, interest payments for foreign borrowings climbed by 56.91% to P23.91 billion in March from P15.24 billion a year prior.

For the first quarter, the government’s debt service bill went down by 65.31% to P342.02 billion from P986.04 billion in the same period last year.

Amortization payments in the period plunged by 87.26% to P101.02 billion from P793.04 billion in the first quarter of 2024.

Broken down, principal payments for domestic debt slumped to P576 million from P699.67 billion, while those for external borrowings climbed to P100.45 billion from P93.371 billion.

Meanwhile, interest payments stood at P241.001 billion in the three months ended March, up 24.88% from P192.99 billion in the same period a year ago to make up the bulk of the government’s total debt service bill in the first quarter.

Interest payments on domestic debt jumped by 28.54% year on year to P178.56 billion in the period. This consisted of P124.83 billion for fixed-rate Treasury bonds, P39.63 billion for retail Treasury bonds, P12.24 billion for Treasury bills, and P1.86 billion in interest payments for other domestic borrowings.

Interest payments for foreign obligations likewise rose by 15.38% year on year to P62.44 billion in the first quarter.

Debt service declined in March as less government securities matured that month versus the year-ago level, resulting in less principal payments, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The drop was also supported by a stronger peso as this reduced the peso equivalent of principal and interest payments for foreign debt, Mr. Ricafort said, adding that cuts in benchmark interest rates also helped bring down debt servicing costs.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas last year cut benchmark rates by 75 basis points (bps) before pausing in February amid uncertainties caused by the Trump administration’s evolving policies. It resumed its easing cycle in April, reducing borrowing costs by 25 bps to bring the policy rate to 5.5%.

“For the coming months, larger NG Treasury bond maturities of around P140 billion in early April 2025 and around total of around P800 billion from August-September 2025 could fundamentally lead to higher NG debt payments,” Mr. Ricafort said.

The NG’s debt stock rose to a fresh high of P16.68 trillion as of end-March, latest BTr data showed. This was equivalent to 62% of gross domestic product, the highest ratio in 20 years. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Nomura cuts PHL growth forecasts for 2025, 2026

May 12, 2025 | 12:32 am

Infra-construction-wc — NOMURA Global Markets Research expects the faster rollout of government infrastructure projects to provide a boost to economic growth. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

NOMURA GLOBAL Markets Research has trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and 2026 following the weak first-quarter expansion.

Nomura cut its Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.3% for this year from 5.9% previously, it said in a report dated May 9. It also slashed its 2026 projection to 5.6% from 6.1%.

Both projections are well below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% growth target for 2025 until 2028.

“Our 2025-26 GDP forecast revisions take into account the disappointing first-quarter outturn, which only rose slightly to 5.4% year on year from 5.3% in fourth quarter 2024, despite election-related spending,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said in the report.

“Escalating global trade and geopolitical tensions are the main downside risks to growth. A faster rollout of infrastructure projects and lower oil prices are upside risks.”

The Philippine economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, the government reported last week. This was a tad faster than the revised 5.3% in the previous quarter but sharply slower from the 5.9% growth in the same period in 2024.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Group Rosemarie G. Edillon said that GDP would need to grow by 6.2% for the rest of the year to reach the lower end of the 6-8% goal.

Based on its forecasts, Nomura expects the Philippines to post below-6% GDP growth for the rest of the year. Broken down, it sees GDP growth of 5.3% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter, and just 5% in the fourth quarter.

In 2024, the economy expanded by 6.5% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter, and 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

“A key source of the downside surprise [in the first quarter] was investment spending growth, which we believe suggests businesses have already turned cautious amid surging global trade uncertainty, even in a less open economy,” Nomura said.

“We expect a moderate pickup in real GDP growth in 2026, led by the government’s strong push for more progress on infrastructure projects.”

It added that it expects the country to post a current account deficit of 4.1% of GDP this year and 4.4% of GDP next year, wider than the 3.8% ratio in 2024, driven by an increase in capital goods imports amid the government’s infrastructure push and weaker exports due to the US’ tariffs.

“Positive terms-of-trade effects from lower oil prices should provide some offset,” Nomura said.

US President Donald J. Trump on April 2 announced that Washington will impose “reciprocal” tariffs on most of its major trading partners, including the Philippines.

However, Mr. Trump suspended the higher levies for 90 days starting April 9, instead implementing a blanket 10% tariff until July. Countries are now negotiating trade deals with the US.

SLOWER INFLATION
Meanwhile, Nomura also cut its full-year inflation forecasts to 1.8% from 2.2% for 2025, and to 2.7% from 2.9% for 2026.

Accounting for risks, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects headline inflation to average 2.3% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.

Headline inflation sharply slowed to 1.4% in April from 1.8% in March and 3.8% a year prior, the government reported last week. This brought average inflation in the first four months to 2%, at the low end of the BSP’s 2-4% annual target.

“The benign inflation outlook remains underpinned by a negative output gap, low crude oil prices, and the government maintaining supply-side measures,” Nomura said.

It added that slower inflation would give the Philippine central bank room to cut benchmark interest rates further and expects the BSP to deliver an additional 75 basis points (bps) in reductions this year.

“This would bring total rate cuts in this cycle to a sizeable 175 bps, with a terminal rate of 4.75%, below the 5% neutral rate. Supporting this view, BSP at the previous monetary board meeting signaled the need to shift towards a ‘more accommodative’ stance,” Nomura said.

The central bank resumed its easing cycle last month with a 25-bp reduction, bringing the policy rate to 5.5%.

It has now reduced benchmark rates by a total of 100 bps since it kicked off its rate-cut cycle in August last year.

The Monetary Board has four remaining meetings this year, with the next one scheduled for June 19. BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told Bloomberg last week that they are open to cutting rates by a further 75 bps this year amid cooling inflation.

Based on its forecasts, Nomura sees another 25-bp cut at the June meeting. It also expects the BSP to deliver a 25-bp reduction in both the third and fourth quarters.

‘CHALLENGING’ FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
On the other hand, Nomura expects the government’s fiscal consolidation progress to remain slow as its revenues are unlikely to grow as fast as its expenditures, especially as the administration continues to pursue its infrastructure spending goals.

“We forecast only a slight narrowing of the fiscal deficit to 5.5% of GDP in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024, above the government’s medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) target of 5.3%,” it said.

Nomura also expects the budget deficit to be at 5% of GDP in 2026, bigger than the government’s 4.7% target under the MTFF.

“We think MTFF targets, which include reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, are challenging to meet due to spending priorities, such as flagship infrastructure projects, as well as dimming prospects of further tax reforms. President Marcos said infrastructure spending will be ‘strategically maintained at 5-6% of GDP.’ Finance Secretary Recto also withdrew from Congress the bill proposing changes to the Capital Markets Efficient Promotion Act (CMEPA), a key revenue-raising reform,” Nomura added.

It said the government’s budget deficit of P478.8 billion in the first quarter was equivalent to 6% of GDP on a 12-month rolling sum basis.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto last month said the government is not seeking to impose new taxes or revenue measures amid the government’s robust fiscal position and withdrew the Department of Finance’s (DoF) proposed amendments to the Capital Markets Efficiency Promotion Act, which sought to increase capital gains tax, donor’s tax and estate tax.

The DoF had previously urged legislators to replace the CMEPA with the Government Revenues Optimization through Wealth Tax Harmonization (GROWTH) bill.

Under its draft GROWTH bill, the DoF proposed to temporarily increase the rates of capital gains tax on real property, donor’s tax, and estate tax to 10% from 2025 to 2030. These rates will be reduced to 6% starting 2031.

The DoF had estimated this could yield around P300 billion in revenues. — A.R.A. Inosante

Global shift to bypass the dollar is gaining momentum in Asia as trade jitters persist

May 12, 2025 | 12:31 am

BANKS AND BROKERS are seeing rising demand for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar, as trade tensions add a sense of urgency to a years-long shift away from the greenback.

Firms are receiving more requests for transactions including hedges that sidestep the dollar and involve currencies such as the yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Emirati dirham and the euro. There’s also demand for yuan-denominated loans, and a bank in Indonesia is setting up a desk for the Chinese currency.

The vast majority of foreign-exchange trades use the dollar even if they’re transferring money between two local currencies. For example, an Egyptian company wanting Philippine pesos will typically transfer its local currency into the greenback before buying pesos with the dollars it receives. But companies are increasingly looking at strategies that skip the dollar’s role as a go-between.

The attempt to find alternatives is another sign that companies and investors are turning their backs on the world’s reserve currency, which was hit with a wave of selling last week amid shifting bets on trade deals. Stephen Jen, a high-profile strategist known for his work on the “dollar smile” theory, has warned of a potential $2.5-trillion “avalanche” of dollar selling that could derail the currency’s long-term appeal.

The greenback’s tumble last week reflected short-term anxieties about trade tensions that are now dominating sentiment. But structural changes in how the greenback is used — and by whom — point to a longer-term trend of de-dollarization.

“The increase in transactions between non-US currencies is largely due to technological development and increased liquidity,” said Gene Ma, head of China research at the Institute of International Finance. “The trading parties feel that the price may not be worse than using the US dollar, so transactions naturally pick up.”

PEAK DOLLAR
The attempt to bypass the dollar is picking up steam, based on conversations with employees of companies and financial institutions across Asia, who asked not to be identified as they aren’t allowed to comment publicly.

Financial institutions from Europe and elsewhere are increasingly pitching yuan derivatives that cut out the US currency, said a person at a commodities trading firm in Singapore. Closer commercial ties between mainland China, Indonesia and the Gulf are spurring demand for non-dollar hedges, several people said.

European carmakers are driving up demand for euro-yuan hedges, said a trader at a financial institution in Singapore. In Indonesia, a foreign bank is due to set up a dedicated team in Jakarta this year to meet growing demand from local clients to facilitate rupiah-yuan transactions, according to an executive at the firm.

The gradual shift away from the dollar erodes one of the building blocks of global trade. For decades, it has been ubiquitous in everything from emerging market debt financing to trade settlement. The use of the dollar as a go-between currency accounts for around 13% of its daily trading volumes, according to a recent estimate.

But global use of the dollar was under threat even before US President Donald J. Trump’s unpredictable approach to trade forced a radical rethink about the greenback’s place in the world.

China has for years been trying to promote international use of its own currency, signing currency settlement agreements with Brazil, Indonesia and others and promoting the global use of the yuan. The BRICS group of emerging-market nations has discussed de-dollarization. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 spurred interest among some countries in shifting away from the dollar, after sanctions on Moscow raised questions about whether the currency had become weaponized.

To be sure, few market participants doubt that a move away from the dollar will be anything but a gradual shift. For one thing, there are no realistic candidates to replace it. The use of the euro in global transactions has fallen over the past two years, according to data from data from global payments company Swift, while China’s currency remains a novelty for trade not directly involving the world’s second-largest economy.

CHINA’S TRADE ANCHOR
China’s yuan was used in around 4.1% of global payments in March, according to data from global payments company Swift, a far cry from the dollar’s 49% global use. But some of China’s payments are being done through its own system, which is growing rapidly.

Annual volumes through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System reached around 175 trillion yuan ($24 trillion) in 2024, a more than 40% year-on-year growth rate, according to its own data.

Chinese investors and trading companies used the yuan in a record percentage of their cross-border activities in March. The country’s exporters are also speeding up the exchange of dollars into yuan, reversing a previous trend of exporters sitting on dollar revenues amid fears the yuan would weaken.

Chinese exports to Southeast Asia have grown more than 80% in the five years to March 2025, while those to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia more than doubled, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. That far exceeds the rate of growth for the country’s exports to the US and the European Union.

While yuan-based hedges are often more expensive than those based on the dollar, low interest rates on underlying yuan loans can mean the total cost is still attractive for borrowers.

“You can fund yourself at a third of the cost that you would fund yourself in dollars,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis. Still, “the renminbi has limitations because there’s not a lot of liquidity offshore.”

The cost of hedging the dollar against major currencies has increased over the past year, with spikes just before the US presidential election in November and again in April. Demand among options traders for hedges against dollar declines has surged. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar has lost around 6% this year as anxiety about trade tensions have loomed large.

The tariff-related dollar swings make clear that it’s not just China and other major economies that are chipping away at the dollar’s place in the world. Mr. Trump has sent mixed signals about the currency, but he has complained about dollar strength and has given a top job to Stephen Miran, an economist who has written about a radical shake-up of the dollar-based world order.

Mr. Trump’s approach to trade, his apparent willingness to jettison longstanding practices and his repeated criticisms of the Federal Reserve have all added to a sense that the dollar’s dominant role in the global economy is facing its biggest threat in decades.

“Given the dollar’s remarkable staying power, it would appear to require truly epochal shifts in the international environment to displace it,” wrote Deutsche Bank analysts including Oliver Harvey in a recent note. “But there are growing risks that just such shifts are taking place.” — Bloomberg

RL Commercial REIT eyes to triple portfolio via potential RLC asset infusions

May 12, 2025 | 12:07 am

Bridgetowne-Estate_View-wc — ROBINSONS LAND CORP. (RLC), incorporated in 1980, is the real estate arm of JG Summit. — JGSUMMIT.COM.PH

RL COMMERCIAL REIT, Inc. (RCR) plans to expand its portfolio in the coming years through potential asset infusions from its sponsor Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC), a company official said.

“The current assets that are in RCR right now from the sponsor is just one-third of the sponsors’ assets,” RCR Treasurer and Director Kerwin Max S. Tan said during a media briefing last week.

“Potentially, RCR can grow two-thirds of the assets of the sponsor. So, it’s basically three times more of the current assets,” he added.

Mr. Tan said growth is expected in the next few years, depending on market conditions and other factors.

As of end-March, RCR’s assets stood at P114.06 billion, while shareholders’ equity totaled P109.48 billion.

RCR has 828,000 square meters (sq.m.) of gross leasable area (GLA), consisting of 539,000 sq.m. of office space and 289,000 sq.m. of mall space. The company holds 17 offices and 12 mall assets across 18 locations nationwide.

The REIT company is positioned for further growth as RLC still has over 1.3 million sq.m. of mall GLA and over 250,000 sq.m. of office GLA that could be infused in the future.

RLC could also infuse about 300,000 sq.m. of logistics GLA and approximately 4,000 hotel room keys into RCR.

In April, RLC raised P6.2 billion from a block sale of 1.04 billion RCR common shares at P5.95 apiece, paving the way for the REIT company’s future portfolio expansion.

The transaction increased RCR’s public float to 42.57% from 35.93%.

Last year, RLC infused 13 properties worth P33.9 billion into RCR. The infused assets include Robinsons Luisita, Robinsons Cabanatuan, Robinsons Novaliches, Robinsons Cainta, Robinsons Imus, Robinsons Sta. Rosa, and Robinsons Los Baños.

RLC also infused Robinsons Lipa, Robinsons Palawan, Robinsons Ormoc, Cybergate Davao, Giga Tower, and Cybergate Delta 2.

For the first quarter, RCR grew its net income by 47% to P1.66 billion, as revenue surged by 58% to P2.25 billion.

RCR shares were last traded on May 9, rising by 1.39% or nine centavos to P6.58 apiece. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Let’s talk tariff

May 12, 2025 | 12:06 am

VELO_PAGE1_image1_SOCCO-COL — From China to the world: Auto Shanghai 2025 was the most recent mobility flex of the country, featuring a growing number of brands already making their impression on the global market. — PHOTO BY KAP MACEDA AGUILA

Everything you need to know about the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ of the US

THE TARIFF increases that United States President Donald Trump announced are much ado about everything. The hikes in tariffs on imports to the USA are sweeping, broad-based, and seen to affect trade flows globally. I cannot claim to grasp the enormity of the entire matter, but this could possibly redraw the bounds of globalization as we know it.

Frankly, tariffs are a complicated lot because trade is such an intricate and complex transactional web. In fact, a whole organization — the World Trade Organization (WTO) — exists to arbiter this gargantuan ecosystem. An impact analysis will entail a great many number of permutations. The only certainty is that they result to higher prices for consumers or lower margins for the exporters and importers. Often, though, taxes -— and make no mistake, tariffs are taxes — are passed onto the consumer, so it will be inflationary. A quote from President Trump himself succinctly captures this truth: “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls. And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.”

Tariffs are a fiscal tool that governments use to manage trade balances, protect domestic industries, or raise revenues. And though it is a fiscal tool, the impact of changes in tariffs can indirectly affect monetary policy as well. For example, tariffs can lead to higher prices or a depreciation of the currency because of a drop in trade. Consequently, this can cause monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Another instance is that higher tariffs may result to increased business uncertainty and reduced economic activity. This would lead monetary authorities to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. The worst case is if the tariff disruptions lead to stagflation — a period of rising prices and stalling economic growth. Then, we could be in real trouble.

When the US government announced its intention to raise tariffs, the proverbial shot across the bow was an added 25% on imported cars aimed at Canada, Mexico, the European Union (EU) and Asia. Industry data shows that the US auto market in 2024 hit 15.9 million units, the highest since 2019. Of this total, nearly half were imported. According to S&P Global Mobility, Mexico exported 2.5 million vehicles to the USA in 2024, followed by South Korea with 1.4 million, Japan with 1.3 million and Canada with 1.1 million. Germany exported 430,000 vehicles and the UK shipped nearly 90,000. Combined, these account for over 80% of all car imports to America.

Ironically, China — which the US government points to as the one to bear the brunt of tariffs — accounted for only around 2% of car imports to the US last year. China became a powerhouse of auto manufacturing only in the last decade or two, leveraging its huge domestic market. As well, it focused on new energy vehicles (NEV), acknowledging that it was already too late to the internal combustion engine (ICE) party. By the time it was firing on all NEV cylinders, though, the demand for fully electrified vehicles in China and the rest of the world plateaued.

The USA and EU became wary of China exporting its excess capacity of EV production on the back of government subsidies. This resulted to the USA imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs while the EU imposed tariffs (differing by manufacturer) ranging from 17.4% (BYD) to 20% (Geely) and 38.1% (SAIC). These tariffs likely kept the increase of exports to the USA at bay.

So, what is the likely effect of these tariff increases on the auto industry? Tariffs are like dikes that divert the flow of water; in the case of tariffs, it diverts the flow of trade and consumer choices. In the USA, it is expected that the higher tariffs will result to higher prices for imported automobiles, expectedly lowering demand for them and hopefully spurring import substitution with made-in-USA cars. This increase in locally built car sales will, in turn, create more jobs and a more robust auto sector. The potential reduction in tariff revenues due to decreased imports are, theoretically, compensated for by higher local value added.

Unless, of course, consumers accept the increased prices, and the sustained level of imports leads to a rise in government revenues and a rebalancing of trade with source countries. But, seriously, how likely is it that consumers would readily agree to a price increase in the magnitude of the proposed tariffs?

For example, assuming an imported vehicle from Mexico costs US$20,000, the added 10% baseline tariff — if non-compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — plus the 25% auto-specific tariff leads to a 35% add-on cost on the car of around US$7,000. That is pretty steep. Even assuming that car companies absorb, say, 25% of that added cost, that is still a US$5,250 increase. On the other hand, the application of the 25% tariff on imports of auto parts effective May 3, 2025 will reportedly cause car prices to rise by an average of US$4,000. I think car buyers will surely blink.

The other hope is that those exporters who are affected by the higher tariffs will consider onshoring their production of vehicles in the USA. This will effectively eliminate tariffs on their cars and allow them to sustain their sales volumes. Given the significant rate of increase in tariffs, perhaps, this would be enough to compensate for any cost penalties that production in the USA would entail. Cost penalties are incurred when the production costs in the host country are higher than those in the country of origin — for example labor, logistics, power, and raw material costs. In this case, trade imbalances will narrow and the reduction in tariff revenues will, once again, be compensated by increased local value added.

Building capacity and new auto plants, though, will take time — two to three years, maybe longer. In the meantime, the flow of goods will remain disrupted. As well, the gestation period for investments in new plants can run anywhere from five to 10 years depending on the scale of investment and production volume. This necessitates long-term policy stability. Since the imposition of tariffs is vested with the Executive branch, it is hard to predict whether the tariffs imposed by the current administration will carry forward to the next one or the one after.

One must remember that local production is a complex operation that must consider the intricacy of the global supply chain. Each automobile — the ICE kind — is comprised of around 30,000 components. The “Big 3” American auto makers — GM, Ford and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler) — sourced about 70% of their parts from the USA and Canada in 2007. By 2023, this is reported to have dropped to 40%. Rebuilding a parts-making industry in the USA will take time and will have to achieve competitive production costs versus the likes of China, Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and even the EU. The span of planned tariffs covers auto parts, too, thus further complicating cost planning and parts sourcing.

(To be continued)

SEC vows continued reforms for FATF compliance

May 12, 2025 | 12:06 am

SEC Chairperson Emilio B. Aquino — FACEBOOK.COM/PHILIPPINESEC

THE Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is aiming to continue its reforms and initiatives to help keep the country off the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) gray list ahead of the scheduled assessment in 2027, its chairman said.

“The next two years will be crucial for the country as we prepare for the next round of mutual evaluation for the assessment of our anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) framework,” SEC Chairperson Emilio B. Aquino said in an e-mail statement over the weekend.

In February, the Philippines was removed from the FATF’s gray list, which includes jurisdictions under increased monitoring for “dirty money” following a successful on-site visit and completion of the recommended action plan.

The country had been on the FATF’s gray list for more than three years, since June 2021.

“The SEC remains steadfast in its commitment to leverage innovation to enhance transparency in the corporate sector and to strengthen its enforcement and monitoring capabilities to ensure that companies are not misused for illicit activities,” Mr. Aquino said.

The SEC launched its fourth wave of digital initiatives last week, including the Hierarchical and Applicable Relations and Beneficial Ownership Registry (HARBOR) platform, which promotes transparency in beneficial ownership data.

HARBOR provides a platform for the submission and updating of beneficial ownership information, allowing businesses, regulators, and government agencies to access faster and more reliable data.

The SEC previously strengthened beneficial ownership data disclosure among companies through a revised general information sheet in 2019. It also prohibited the issuance and sale of bearer shares and bearer share warrants in 2021 to prevent the use of corporations for illegal activities.

In 2023, the corporate regulator implemented an amnesty program to increase the compliance rate of companies in submitting reportorial requirements. It also advocated for the registration of nearly 8,000 non-profit organizations since 2021 as part of its efforts to expand transparency. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Auto Shanghai 2025: Geely spotlights safety, intelligence, and strategy

May 12, 2025 | 12:05 am

VELO_image1_Geely-Galaxy-Cruiser — The Geely Galaxy Cruiser prototype

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CHINESE AUTO giant Geely Auto recently arranged an international media tour predicated on the Auto Shanghai 2025. In a release, the company said that “automotive journalists from the Middle East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, and Oceania gathered in China for an immersive experience of the Geely brand.”

While the trip commenced with a trip to the auto show, the delegates also visited the brand’s base in Hangzhou, with the end goal of checking out Geely’s “latest achievements across three core areas: safety innovation, intelligent technology, and global product strategy — comprehensively demonstrating (its) competitive edge and strategic vision in international markets.”

At Auto Shanghai 2025, Geely unveiled the Galaxy Cruiser prototype, said to be the world’s first SUV with the capability of “switching (to any of three) energy modes — pure electric, hybrid, and extended range — while adapting to diverse terrains and driving conditions in real time.” An AI-driven four-wheel-drive system can “effortlessly (transition) from city streets to rugged off-road trails.”

Additionally, the Galaxy Cruiser is highlighted by “groundbreaking safety features: no loss of control, no self-ignition, no loss of connectivity, no collisions, and no sinking. Platformed on an “AI digital chassis,” the vehicle can perform maneuvers such as crab walking, on-the-spot turning, driving with a flat tire, and even autonomous drifting.

Powered by Geely’s Golden Short Blade Battery — fortified with exclusive patented bulletproof materials and coatings to prevent deformation, fire, or explosion — the SUV also will receive advanced satellite connectivity for reliable connection even in remote areas. An industry-first “vehicle-mounted sonar and water radar” enables the Galaxy Cruiser to float in water for up to two hours at a cruising speed exceeding 8.5kph (4.6 knots), with a maximum wading depth of over 800mm. Geely Auto Group CEO Jerry Gan announced Geely’s latest safety technologies and initiatives at the show, and shared Geely’s attitude and philosophy toward automotive safety, with the theme “AI for All, All for Safety.”

In Hangzhou, Qiantang District, international media members were granted unprecedented access to Geely’s safety technology laboratories focusing independently on body structure, pedestrian protection, air bags, crash test dummies, and sled testing. Among other things, rigorous crash tests are performed for all Geely models, including the Geely EX5 which earned five-star safety ratings from the Europ NCAP and ANCAP.

Geely will invest over CN¥2 billion in a new global safety test center, to open by the end of 2025. “This world-class facility will strengthen Geely’s innovation in automotive safety and provide even more comprehensive protection for users worldwide,” added the company.

At its headquarters, Geely offered a comprehensive view of its mobility ecosystem, which includes integrated space-air-ground technology and vehicle connectivity solutions. Global connectivity will be realized through Geespace satellite technology; Geely also showed Aerofugia’s eVTOL aircraft advancing “three-dimensional travel,” and DreamSmart glasses creating new immersive interactive experiences.

Geely conducted comprehensive test drives in Hangzhou featuring vehicles across three powertrain categories: conventional fuel, hybrid, and pure electric. Premium fuel models include the Geely Monjaro, Geely Starray, Geely Cityray, and the Geely Emgrand. In the EV lineup, EX5 took center stage, while Geely’s new-generation plug-in hybrid SUV Xingjian 7 EM-i and the A0-class pure-electric sedan Xingyuan, also made an appearance. These models comprehensively showcased the brand’s product strength and technological innovation capabilities in the global market.

Meanwhile, the Geely Geome was also previewed. This should be of interest to the Philippine market as it is slated for release “later this year or early 2026.” This compact crossover gets a minimalistic and modern take “with youthful energy.” The profile is smooth and rounded for a more aerodynamic look, while the front fascia is “clean and futuristic,” with slim, sharply styled headlights.

Anko opens second store, launches membership app

May 12, 2025 | 12:05 am

Alabang Anko Store — THE newly opened Anko branch at Alabang Town Center.

THERE are many affordable everyday essentials, storage solutions, and decorations to be found at Anko, the Australia-based house brand under Kmart Australia Ltd., which specializes in home and lifestyle products.

Last week, Anko opened a second branch in Alabang Town Center (ATC), Muntinlupa, six months after opening its first store at Glorietta 2 in Makati.

The May 8 launch saw guests browse through the store’s expansive kitchen and dinnerware selection, as well as its trendy items such as notebooks, pens, and other arts and crafts items. There were toys for kids and beauty and wellness products for moms — and most of the prices didn’t exceed three digits.

“It’s more laidback here in Alabang, so the products that we carry are more for that kind of market,” Paul Miranda, store manager for Anko in ATC, told BusinessWorld. “Glorietta is a hub for working commuters and Makati residents, so it’s a mixed market. Here, majority are families.”

Compared to the 1,200-square-meter Glorietta store, the ATC branch is smaller at 812 square meters. As for how it measures up to similar homeware competitors, Mr. Miranda pointed out that Anko stores have “more spacious, presentable aisles” and “display items to accommodate the touchy-feely shopping style of Filipino consumers.”

“We have been overwhelmed with the warm welcome and hospitality the Filipino community has shown us. We’ve enjoyed interacting with our customers, meeting them in the store, and learning more and more about this beautiful place we now call home,” said Rachel Turner, Anko Philippines’ country manager, at the second branch’s opening.

“Not only do we bring Anko closer to more families, but the opening of this store will bring in new jobs to the area,” she added.

MORE BRANCHES TO COME
A third branch, opening in July, will be located in TriNoma Mall. “Quezon City, where TriNoma is located, is the highest population city in the Philippines with over 2.9 million people. We are confident that our third store will resonate strongly and extend our reach further,” Ms. Turner said of the location.

She explained that their approach to expanding is “informed by listening closely to their customers.” It is also based on a joint venture with Ayala Corp., helping the brand boost its domestic presence.

Mark Robert Uy, corporate and business development head of Ayala Corp., said at the launch that they are thrilled to be part of the journey of setting up more stores, with two more in the pipeline this year aside from the ATC and TriNoma stores.

“We’re happy to see Anko as more than just another retail store. It’s a shopping experience that focuses on creating the best in-store experience while offering products at affordable everyday prices,” said Mr. Uy.

LOYALTY PROGRAM
Anko also unveiled its first-ever loyalty program called the Anko Club, available through its own mobile app. It gives members access to exclusive events such as VIP experiences, product launches, and online and in-store activations.

Upon registering, users can earn participation rewards. Member information on the app also serves as a digital pass for events.

“For now, there’s no points system. We offer more of exclusive offers. As it is, you can see that our prices are not high so there’s no need for discounts,” said Mr. Miranda on what to expect from Anko Club.

“Plus, we’re cardless, so everything is digital through the mobile app,” he added.

Club members who shop at Anko until June 7 have a chance to win a family hotel experience at Seda Hotel. Every transaction earns members one raffle entry, with no minimum spend.

Ms. Turner explained that the Anko Club app will “help better connect with customers and meet their needs.”

“We’re creating a space — online and in-store — where people can explore, be inspired, and find their perfect match,” she said.

Anko currently has branches on the ground floor of Glorietta 2, Makati City, and the ground floor of Alabang Town Center, Muntinlupa City. Its third location in TriNoma, Quezon City, will open in July. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

Why we vote the way we do — Voting behavior and economic reforms

May 12, 2025 | 12:05 am

Voter-election — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Jam Magdaleno

THIS ARTICLE was written one day before the election and the releasing of the results, but I am near certain that the outcome will be disappointing for “learned” voters. I emphasize the quotation marks because the prevalent discourse on voting in the Philippines is largely framed in two equally flawed ways: moral and educational.

For this article’s purpose, I will focus on the latter.

For the longest time, the government and civil society have treated voting as an educational issue. The assumption is simple: to nudge voters to vote for the “right” candidate, they must be “rightly” educated. Consistently, most government interventions focus on this. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) has media partnerships, holds campus forums and digital campaigns (like #MagpaRehistroKa), while NGOs host countless “voter education” seminars in barangays.

At the heart of these campaigns lies what behavioral theorists call the Information Deficit Model (IDM), a term popularized by linguist Robin Lakoff. It frames voters as passive recipients — as if simply supplying the “right” facts can reshape choices. This assumes a blank-slate psychology that flattens the complexity of political behavior, ignoring how class, identity, and material realities shape how voters process information in the first place.

But voting, which inherently presupposes information-seeking, is not a passive political act that happens in a vacuum. Voting behavior is not neutral, not symmetrical, not zero-sum. As Daniel Kahneman and much of cognitive science tell us, humans don’t seek “truth” — we seek relevance, and that relevance is deeply shaped by our material and economic environment.

INFORMATION SEEKING IS CLASS-DRIVEN
Class D or E voters are not irrational for voting the way they do. They are precisely rational, strategic, and making the best decision available within their constraints. For a minimum-wage earner deciding between skipping a meal or accepting a P500 vote-buying offer, that money is not corruption but an immediate policy. In fact, a 2019 Ateneo School of Government empirical study found that 34% of Filipino voters surveyed admitted they would accept money or gifts in exchange for votes, not out of ignorance, but because it “helps with daily expenses.”

In other words, vote buying works, not because voters are simply irrational and uneducated, but because they are economically immobile. Voter education campaigns ignore this. They treat class D and E voters as if they are just temporarily unaware of “better” candidates, when in truth, these voters are responding to their lived realities.

Even beyond vote buying, this shift is consistent with how Filipino voters have moved away from yellow- and left-leaning politics toward the right since the Duterte era, driven by widespread discontent with how previous administrations handled drugs, crime, and the economy. While the disinformation problem is serious, it merely builds upon — and amplifies — the existing zeitgeist of discontent among Filipinos.

WHY VOTER EDUCATION FAILS AND SOMETIMES BACKFIRES
The focus on voter education often patronizes the poor. It assumes that if we just give voters the correct information, they’ll miraculously abandon local patrons or dynasts. But these campaigns are usually designed by middle-class technocrats and strategists anyway, relying on middle-class models of communication: brochures, lectures, webinars, infographics usually in English. Even grassroot-driven campaigns, which ostensibly master the art of looking like a grassroot movement, fail to acknowledge the vast difference between the gut issues of the majority of voters (security, economic relief) and the technocrats’ idea of political progress (good governance and gender equality).

Worse, as I had previously written, this backfires by alienating voters. You cannot tell someone to “vote wisely” if your idea of wisdom ignores their hunger. You cannot ask someone to think long-term if their problem is next week’s rent. Political scientist Frederic Schaffer argues that vote buying in the Global South is often “morally reframed as patronage” — a way to establish trust in systems that otherwise exclude the poor. Studies from the J-PAL Southeast Asia Lab have shown that even well-funded deliberative campaigns had minimal effect on voter choice without corresponding changes in their economic mobility.

VOTING AND ECONOMIC REFORMS
The focus, then, must shift toward meaningful economic reform and the improvement of people’s material conditions.

Across democracies, a well-documented pattern emerges: as economies grow, so does the quality of political participation. Seymour Martin Lipset’s modernization theory long argued that prosperity — through higher incomes, education, and urbanization — lays the groundwork for stable, more accountable democracies. This view is echoed in the empirical work of Boix and Stokes in 2003, who found that as national income rises, clientelism and patronage-based politics tend to fade, giving way to more programmatic, policy-driven choices at the ballot box.

A World Bank study by Keefer and Khemani further argues that when voters are economically insecure, they favor clientelist exchanges, but as material conditions improve, political preferences shift toward long-term, policy-based governance. We’ve seen this trajectory play out in Taiwan and South Korea, where rapid industrialization in the 20^th century helped dismantle the grip of patronage politics, paving the way for more robust democratic institutions and policy-centered elections.

In the Philippines, this is a long but necessary battle. Among many other reforms, it begins with addressing the malnutrition crisis, which continues to stunt Filipino children’s physical growth and cognitive development at an alarming rate. It also involves expanding property rights so that Filipinos gain a sense of security and economic agency, factors that translate into more meaningful political participation. Finally, it requires reimagining the country’s economic direction by shifting away from inward-looking, protectionist policies toward a more outward-looking, competitive economy.

Without addressing the structural roots of political behavior, the notion of an “educated” electorate remains a largely elitist aspiration — one that is detached from the daily realities that shape voter decisions. The cycle of discontent and disappointment will only persist.

Jam Magdaleno is a political and economic researcher, writer, and communications strategist. He currently serves as the head of Information and Communications at the Foundation for Economic Freedom, a policy think tank in the Philippines.