FOR ALL THE BUZZ about pea protein and lab-grown burgers, Americans are set to eat more meat in 2018 than ever before.

To be precise, the average consumer will eat 222.2 pounds (100.8 kilos) of red meat and poultry this year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), surpassing a record set in 2004. Meanwhile, domestic production will surpass 100 billion pounds for the first time, as livestock owners expand their herds on the back of cheap feed grain.

Though the USDA’s per-capita measure isn’t a true gauge of consumption, it serves as a common proxy. It shows egg demand reaching an all-time high as well in 2018. Dairy items like cheese and butter have also been growing in popularity.

“If you look at the items that consumers say they want more of in their diet, protein tops the list,” said David Portalatin, a Houston-based food industry adviser for NPD Group.

Prices have gotten cheaper at the grocery store as supply grows. Chicken breast costs in November were the lowest in five years, and steak and ham are getting less expensive, government data show.

Many Americans are actively shunning carbohydrates in favor of protein, though any health benefits may be outweighed by the sheer volume of meat, eggs and dairy being consumed. While the government recommends that adults eat 5 to 6.5 ounces of protein daily, the USDA forecasts the average person will down almost 10 ounces of meat and poultry each day in 2018.

It’s a sharp turnaround from 2007 through 2014, a time when per-capita meat and poultry demand slumped 9% as rising corn-based ethanol demand and a drought sent commodity prices sharply higher. Though cattle and hogs are now far cheaper than their 2014 peak, prices have staged a rebound. US meat exports have soared as the global economy improves, outpacing the gains in domestic demand.

Most-active cattle futures in Chicago rose 4.7% in 2017, the first gain in three years, and hogs climbed 8.5%. Cash livestock prices may fall in 2018, the USDA forecasts.

Meat substitutes have gained attention in recent years amid concerns about the impact of a carnivorous diet on health, animal welfare and the environment. For example, Chicago-based Epic Burger, Inc. last year started selling the Beyond Burger plant-based patty that mimics meat. Protein from plants, insects or cultured meat are a top food trend to watch, though the category isn’t expected to significantly dent animal product sales just yet, according to a November report from CoBank.

“Ten years from now, there will be higher plant consumption, but beef will always be king,” Epic Burger founder David Friedman said. “People are always looking to put more protein into their diets. But they want high quality and transparency in the food they’re eating.” — Bloomberg

IN AN AREA OF JAPAN still decimated by a nuclear disaster, sake is giving cause for hope.

For the past five years, the sake brewers of Fukushima, on a two-decade quest to develop premium products, have captured the most gold medals in a key national competition and have won numerous international awards. Drinkers worldwide have noticed the rising quality, with the result that sake exports from Fukushima have more than doubled since 2012.

Now the prefectural government and local brewers are promoting their success. The hope is that Fukushima’s championship sake — made from local rice and water — will serve as a symbol of the safety of local agricultural and fishery products and of the prospects for the prefecture’s broader revival.

“If we can show that Fukushima makes the best sake in the world, surely we can overcome the stigma,” said Hiroyuki Karahashi, the president of Homare Sake Brewery Co., which won first place in the sake category at the 2015 London International Wine Challenge.

Fukushima’s challenge is enormous. The earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown that devastated the region in March 2011 killed 4,000 people in Fukushima alone. Many of the 50,000 people forced to leave their homes have no plans to return. The local economy has been largely propped up by reconstruction spending the years since, but that spending is expected to fall in the years to come.

Meanwhile, local companies still struggle with lingering public fears of radiation contamination. Only around 30% of businesses in the important fisheries and food processing sectors have seen their sales rise to pre-disaster levels, according to the nation’s reconstruction agency. 

All agricultural products from Fukushima — including every bag of rice — are tested for radiation using internationally accepted standards before shipment. Since 2015, no rice has registered radiation above the safety level, national broadcaster NHK has reported.

Still, 55 countries have some kind of restriction or requirement for additional documentation on imports of Fukushima products, according to Japan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Takahiro Ichimura, a director of trade promotion at the Fukushima Prefectural Government, who’s spearheading efforts on the sake promotion efforts, said the importance of ingredients in the sake should help change people’s perception of Fukushima.

“Water and rice are crucial,” he said. “Once Fukushima’s sake gains broader recognition and more people drink it, we think that overall appreciation for Fukushima should also increase.”

The surge in sake exports follows a plunge in consumption in Japan — by half over the past 20 years, as consumers broadened their tastes.

Fukushima is trying to increase sales in the US and Europe, including with promotional tours, Ichimura said. It has allocated ¥100 million ($880,000) this fiscal year to promote local sake at events in major cities in Japan and abroad, as well as at trade shows and promotional Web sites, in a campaign run by a private public relations agency. It plans to increase the budget 10% next year.

One event near Shimbashi station, a Tokyo business area teeming with salarymen, drew 30,000 people this year, up from 20,000 last year, according to the prefecture.

Behind the brewers’ recent success lies a shift in strategy toward premium products. Twenty years ago many of Fukushima’s breweries produced cheap sake that included distilled alcohol, earning them a poor reputation in Japan’s northeast, historically a major sake-producing region.

The prefectural sake academy, established in 1992, changed the game. The various breweries’ heirs came together there to pool their secret brewing techniques, raising the bar for the entire prefecture. At one three-century old brewery, the focus is now on using organic rice, while at another an older, more time-consuming technique to create yeast mash — a key ingredient — is being revived to improve flavor.

To be sure, changing Fukushima’s image will be a struggle. While Japan’s latest national budget included billions of yen for the purpose, 13% of Japanese respondents to a recent survey said they would hesitate before buying produce from Fukushima due to worries about radiation.

Ichimura remains optimistic.

“Fukushima’s sake is a symbol of its recovery,” he said. “It’s managed to achieve results despite the odds. My hope is that people will see this, and see how Fukushima is moving forward.” — Bloomberg