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Narvasa not ready to step down

The PBA Board of Governors presented a unified force during the launching of the league’s 43rd season, but curiously, the most important man wasn’t around during the photo-op.

Embattled league commissioner Chito Narvasa refused to join the board of governors in any of the two tables reserved for the team’s representatives as well as in the photo-op which will signal the start of a new season.

Narvasa’s action fueled speculations that he might be on his way out as commissioner of the PBA.

But no. Narvasa isn’t ready yet to relinquish his post even as the league officially started its 43rd season yesterday despite reports that he is about to step down following clamor from the majority of the teams participating in the PBA.

Narvasa’s plot of not joining any of the board members in the table hasn’t something to do with the issue about the seven teams showing lost of confidence in him. The son of the former Chief Justice acted on his own and decided to sit on the separate table and didn’t join the photo-op because he wanted to see something from the 12 board members, 13 including outgoing chairman Mikee Romero of GlobalPort.

For Narvasa, he wants to see the board united days before the start of the new season.

One could only guess whether the board is truly united at this time as we saw board members from two factions seated together in one table.

This could be the progress PBA fans would like to see, but the most important question has yet to be answered up to this time: Will Narvasa stay on as commissioner or is he on the way out?

A board member who requested anonymity said there’s no problem for board members to unify once Narvasa makes the ultimate sacrifice of stepping down from his post. Besides, he believes the Commissioner’s tenure is on a yearly basis and the lost of confidence of the seven members is indication enough that the current head of the league should step down.

The same board member added that it would be easy to look for an officer-in-charge to succeed Narvasa and from there, they could find time to look for the next commissioner while the league continues to run.

The five members supporting Narvasa would tell otherwise, that it would need two-thirds to oust a commissioner.

But whether Narvasa would stay on or a new officer-in-charge would be on board soon, fans deserve the best and that is to see great quality games from among the 12 teams competing.

The PBA @ 43 should not slow down.

 

Rey Joble has been covering the PBA games for more than a decade. He is a member of the PBA Press Corps and Philippine Sportswriters Association.

reyjoble09@gmail.com

DoF preparing IRR for Philippine Tax Academy

THE Department of Finance (DoF) said it is preparing the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) for the establishment of the Philippine Tax Academy (PTA).

“The DoF, through its Legal Group, has been reviewing the implementing rules and regulations of the tax academy,” the Finance department said in a statement, after it submitted to the Governance Commission for Government-Owned or –Controlled Corporations (GCG) the academy’s proposed organizational structure and staffing plan for approval.

The PTA, which is planned for launch in January, will serve as a training institution to provide revenue officials and staff continuing professional education on improving tax collection competence, efficiency and integrity.  

Finance Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran said that the PTA “must be a GCG-covered entity per Republic Act (RA) 10143.”

RA 10143, or the Philippine Tax Academy Act,  was signed into law over seven years ago, but has not yet been implemented. 

All personnel of the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), the Bureau of Customs (BoC), and the Bureau of Local Government Finance (BLGF) are required to undergo training programs at the academy before they can be hired, whether on contractual basis or as permanent employees, according to the law.

The law calls for the curriculum to include the “technical aspects of tax collection, administration and compliance, and career orientation and development for civil servants.”

The government is considering setting up the training academy at the University of Philippines or the University of Makati, at a cost of some P20 billion.

Mr. Beltran said that the Department of Budget and Management had decided that the initial funding for the academy will be sourced from government subsidies appropriated for state-run corporations, under the General Appropriations Act.

The Board of Trustees of the Academy includes representatives from the Finance department, its revenue agencies, as well as three representatives from the academe with at least five years of teaching experience in “reputable schools.”

In October, the DoF said it may pursue a grant from the United States government for the establishment of the PTA after Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III met with US Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, David R. Malpass. — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

Grab to roll out digital payments in Philippines

GRAB PHILIPPINES (MyTAXI.PH, Inc.) is planning to launch its digital payments platform by the first half of next year.

Grab Philippines public affairs manager Leo Emmanuel Gonzales said the company is planning to roll out GrabPay as a digital payments app to be used for commercial establishments by the first or second quarter.

Last month, the ride-sharing firm launched GrabPay’s in-store and in-restaurant payments feature in its home base — Singapore.

“We’re working already with the central bank, BSP [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas], when we get our e-license, we can roll out,” Mr. Gonzales told reporters on the sidelines of a Grab event. “We know it’s going to work here, we have the demand here.”

Currently, Grab offers mobile payment services through top-up service GrabPay Credits and its rewards system, GrabRewards.

GrabPay credits can be loaded in banks and partner establishments.

Users can send credits to anyone who has a Grab account. GrabRewards allow users to earn points for every GrabTaxi, GrabCar, and GrabShare ride. These points can be used to redeem free rides, special discount codes and exclusive deals from Grab’s partners.

Mr. Gonzales said they see an opportunity in the Philippines, where more consumers prefer cash than credit cards.

“The Philippines is basically, mostly, a cash-dependent society. but we believe the way to go forward is cashless,” he said.

Grab seeks to capitalize on its wide user base, with 63 million users across Southeast Asia.

“You can just imagine our client base for Grab, we can start with that, and expand,” Mr. Gonzales said. — P.P.C. Marcelo

Gov’t to hold summit on fake news

THE government is set to launch a “grand information summit” in 2018 to help combat fake news and increase media literacy of Filipinos, the Presidential Communications Office said over the weekend. Communications Secretary Martin M. Andanar said the summit will be in collaboration with private media, government media, as well as such agencies as the Department of Education.

Australia charges Nokor ‘agent’ with WMD sale plot

SYDNEY — A Sydney-based “loyal agent of North Korea” has been charged with trying to sell missile parts and technology on the black market to raise money for Pyongyang in breach of international sanctions, Australian police said Sunday.

The 59-year-old naturalized Australian citizen of Korean descent, named in local media as Chan Han Choi, was attempting to broker illicit deals that could have generated “tens of millions of dollars” for North Korea, the Australian Federal Police (AFP) said.

Choi was involved in discussions to set up a ballistic missile production facility and the supply of missile construction plans in addition to components, software and the transfer of technical expertise from Pyongyang, police alleged.

AFP Assistant Commissioner Neil Gaughan told reporters the case was “like nothing we have ever seen on Australian soil,” alleging that the man was in contact with high-ranking North Korean officials.

“This man is a loyal agent of North Korea, believing he was acting to serve some higher patriotic purpose.”

The alleged agent’s plans did not involve other governments or officials, police said. Authorities did not reveal which individuals or entities the man was allegedly trying to trade with.

North Korea is under tough United Nations (UN) sanctions aimed at choking off revenue to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs.

“This is a very important arrest, the charges laid are of the greatest nature,” Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told reporters in Sydney.

“North Korea is a dangerous, reckless, criminal regime threatening the peace of the region. It supports itself by breaching UN sanctions.”

“It is vitally important that all nations … enforce those sanctions because the more economic pressure that can be brought on North Korea, the sooner that regime will be brought to its senses.”

Choi, who has lived in Australia for three decades, allegedly used encrypted communication services to facilitate the attempted trades, which included the transfer of coal from North Korea to entities in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Choi was refused bail on Sunday after being arrested in the Sydney suburb of Eastwood on Saturday. He faces a total of six charges, with maximum penalties of up to 10 years in jail.

Police started looking into his activities earlier this year after a tip-off from a “foreign law enforcement partner,” Mr. Gaughan said without giving further details.

Police would not rule out further charges, and were probing other attempted commodity trades involving oil and gemstones, as well as investigating Choi’s activities as far back as 2008.

This is the first time charges have been laid for breaches under Canberra’s Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Act and for violating UN sanctions against North Korea in Australia.

Global anxiety about North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s authoritarian government has steadily risen this year, with Washington calling on other UN members to cut ties with Pyongyang in order to squeeze the secretive regime. — AFP

Designer Saunders resigns from NY label DVF

NEW YORK — Scottish fashion designer Jonathan Saunders has resigned as chief creative officer at Diane von Furstenberg after little more than 18 months at the iconic New York label, the company announced Friday.

Neither Saunders nor the label offered reasons for his departure, which follows reports that Von Furstenberg plans to sell a stake in her company, which shot to global fame in the 1970s with the creation of the wrap dress.

Saunders, who became famous in London for his eponymous womenswear label, joined DVF in May 2016 and had been responsible for all product categories, store design, Web site design, a new corporate brand identity, marketing and advertising campaigns.

“I am grateful for Diane’s support and for the opportunity of guiding this iconic brand. I am so proud of everything we have accomplished,” he said in a statement. “I am so thankful for Jonathan’s beautiful work and the effort and dedication he has put into DVF,” said Von Furstenberg. “He will leave an important and lasting heritage.”

Saunders launched his womenswear label in 2003 to critical acclaim in London but resigned in 2015 and shuttered the company, citing “personal reasons.”

He has worked with a slew of fashion masters, including under Alexander McQueen, and consulted for Christian Lacroix at Pucci, Phoebe Philo at Chloe and Paul Smith.

Saunders also collaborated with high street retailers including Target and Topshop.

His last collection for DVF was pre-fall 2018, which was unveiled last week. — AFP

PSEi may retest 8,500 on portfolio rebalancing

LOCAL EQUITIES may breach the 8,500 mark this week as investors rebalance their portfolios ahead of the holidays.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) finished 1.46% lower or 124.02 points to 8,337.04 on Friday, but was up week on week by 32 points or 0.40%.

The financials sector lifted the index as it rose 2.7%, while industrials added 1% last week. Foreigners were net sellers last week, although slimmer at P40 million against the P340 million in the week prior. Gainers outpaced losers, 98 to 82.

“While year-end portfolio rebalancing and/or realignment continues, particularly among foreign investors, it is possible for the PSEi to make another attempt to move above the 8,500 level again or even challenge the intraday record high of 8,605.15 before the year is over,” PCCI Securities Brokers Corp. Research Head Joseph James F. Lago said in an e-mail last week.

The PSEi recorded a total of 12 fresh highs this year, with the latest being its 8,523.07 close last Nov. 6.

Timson Securities, Inc. equity trader Jervin S. de Celis said in a separate message that the index would have to keep its support within the 8,200 level.

“A retest of the 8,500 to 8,600 is highly likely due to window dressing before yearend. We just have to watch out for the key support level of the PSEi at 8,200. As long as it holds, the PSEi’s YTD (year-to-date) performance will end better than last year’s performance,” Mr. De Celis said in a mobile phone message last week. 

Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com noted that investors will be looking out for listed firms’ announcement of their capital expenditure (capex) plans for 2018, as this would indicate whether they would be bullish next year.

“The market still has its second wish list left before the Yuletide holiday and that’s higher capex, wider business. Calls of whether or not to be bullish on the capex side would be taken on per sector call, as listed companies fine-tune their business models and market approaches, anchored on consumers’ behavior pattern,” 2TradeAsia.com said in a weekly market note.

The first package of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) bill, which is now just awaiting the president’s signature after its ratification last Wednesday, would push demand for more products and services in 2018.

The TRAIN bill raised taxes on petroleum products, while keeping to a minimum the increases in LPG, diesel, and gasoline taxes.

“While the structure entails pass-on costs, it would be up to consumers to adjust their spending practices based on the merits of the approved increase,” the online brokerage said, adding that there would however be a sensitive play on excise taxes on coal and oil products.

Analysts pegged immediate support within 8,270 to 8,300 range, while resistance is between 8,460 and 8,520. — Arra B. Francia

Disappointing setback

As expected, Carmelo Anthony received a warm — well mostly warm — reception in his return to the Garden for the first time since he was traded to the Thunder in the offseason. It helped, of course, that new top dog Kristaps Porzingis publicly declared that he deserved to be recognized for being the Knicks’ marquee attraction through a half decade and change. Never mind that he managed to lead the blue and orange to the playoffs just thrice, and past the first round only once.

Needless to say, Anthony made the most — or, to be more precise, tried to make the most — of his time back in Gotham’s Sports Mecca. In recent memory, he looked more intent, and content, to defer to the other members of the Thunder’s Big Three in an effort to promote efficiency. Yesterday, though, he was more of the Iso Melo who elicited from Knicks fans a roller coaster of emotions. And he wound up misfiring more often than not, no doubt due to the defense thrown at him, but likewise because he appeared, at times, to be overwhelmed by the occasion.

As things turned out, Anthony would fail to get the satisfaction of a respectable showing. Not only did he manage to can a mere five of his 18 attempts from the field; he was blanked for the entire second half. In fact, his last basket came off an assisted slam with a little over four minutes left in the second quarter. And from then on, the Thunder were outscored by 10 en route to a 15-point defeat. Which, in a nutshell, means he didn’t get any satisfaction at all. (Notably, Paul George also struggled at the Fieldhouse earlier in the week, but left his home of the last seven years with a W.)

For all the disappointment Anthony must have felt, the bigger takeaway from yesterday’s outcome was the Thunder’s continuing lack of fluidity on both ends of the court. A full third into their 2017-18 campaign, they remain lost and unsure; even as their talent cannot be denied, they haven’t shown enough of it to justify their preseason prognosis as a powerhouse. If anything, they’ve displayed the opposite; he, George, and reigning league Most Valuable Player Russell Westbrook seem to revert to “Your Turn, My Turn, His Turn” mode under pressure.

The good news is that the Thunder have time to improve and crowd the top of the West, not scramble to avoid the lottery. Frankly, they’re too stacked not to. Then again, the numbers don’t lie, and losing to the Knicks, who competed without Porzingis and Tim Hardaway, Jr., should send alarm bells ringing. There were no smiles in the visitors’ locker room, not after a tiring back-to-back stand that featured a triple-overtime win and then a disappointing setback, and not heading into the uncertainty of what’s still to come.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is the Senior Vice-President and General Manager of Basic Energy Corp.

Effective reporting of expected credit loss estimates under IFRS 9

INTERNATIONAL Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9, the replacement standard for International Accounting Standards (IAS) 39, Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement, is slated for mandatory adoption by entities starting Jan. 1, 2018. A key change in IFRS 9 is the introduction of a new impairment model — the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model. The ECL model, which replaces the incurred credit loss model under IAS 39, incorporates forward-looking information in measuring impairment loss on financial instruments, with the aim of providing timely and more useful information about an entity’s expected credit losses to the users of financial statement.

In June 2016, the Global Public Policy Committee (GPPC), which comprises representatives from the six largest accounting networks, issued a paper which describes the key components of the implementation of the ECL model and provides guidance to audit committees in evaluating a bank’s progress during the implementation and transition phase.

In July 2017, the GPPC issued a second paper focused on the major components of the ECL estimation process and implications for banks and auditors to consider, and the audit committee’s role in evaluating the effectiveness of the auditor’s response to the risks of material misstatement posed by ECL estimates.

The estimation of ECL under IFRS 9 will be a significant change in a bank’s financial reporting. Given the importance of banks in the global capital markets, it is critical for bank management teams, audit committees and auditors to develop reliable and reasonable estimates of ECL and to ensure the completeness, reliability and accuracy of financial statement disclosures. It also highlights the need for auditors to perform high-quality audits on ECL estimates so that the users of financial statements can rely on these estimates and disclosures.

In order for users to better understand and evaluate the judgments used in ECL estimations, banks will need to base their disclosures on the following elements: accounting policies, operational procedures and systems of internal control, information systems and data, and estimation models.

ACCOUNTING POLICIES
The bank should ensure that its accounting policies completely capture the applicable requirements of IFRS 9 to help users understand the key decisions, judgements and interpretations applied by the bank. Moreover, the bank should consistently apply its accounting policies and periodically reassess the appropriateness of its accounting policies for any changes that may be relevant in the estimation of ECL.

OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES AND SYSTEMS OF INTERNAL CONTROL
The bank should have effective internal controls over the critical sources of information, processes and models upon which the ECL estimates are based.  They should address the following:

* The appropriateness of its accounting policies and conformity with the requirements of IFRS 9;

* The completeness, accuracy, relevance and reliability of historical and forward-looking information obtained from internal and external sources;

* The development, maintenance and validation of estimation models used to determine the ECL amount, including the appropriateness of any adjustments or overlays;

* The controls in place to review the ECL estimates used, including controls designed to identify and mitigate potential management bias; and,

* The completeness, reliability and accuracy of financial statement disclosures on ECL estimates.

INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND DATA
The bank should have a robust governance process over its information systems development and implementation, including post implementation changes. The information systems should have automated controls (or manual controls if no automated controls are embedded into the information systems) to ensure the completeness and accuracy of information and the reliability of the information systems’ processing logic.

ESTIMATION MODELS
The bank should have a comprehensive framework over the model development and model validation, including policies and procedures outlining roles and responsibilities, and on model adjustments or overlays, to ensure that the models generate accurate, consistent and predictive estimates. The bank’s model validation process may include the evaluation of the model’s mathematical, theoretical or conceptual soundness, including the appropriateness of model parameters and completeness and accuracy of the model’s data, and the continued appropriateness of the models by performing back testing, stress testing and benchmarking. Model inputs must also be relevant, reliable and appropriate in the context of IFRS 9.

Accordingly, these elements will be the auditors’ key areas of focus when auditing a bank’s estimation of ECL:

* Assess the risks of material misstatement associated with the bank’s ECL estimates by gaining an understanding of the bank’s ECL estimation process, including the internal controls and information systems used in the ECL estimation process and testing the design and operating effectiveness of the key controls identified;

* Engage IT experts to evaluate the operating effectiveness of Information Technology General Controls (ITGCs) over the applications used in the bank’s ECL estimation process, which include testing the ITGCs over logical access and program change management;

* Identify the significant judgments and assumptions used by the bank that give rise to the risks of material misstatement on ECL estimates (e.g., assessment of significant increase in credit risk in a particular portfolio, selection of estimation models, use of overlays, selection and relative weighting of forward-looking economic scenarios);

* Design appropriate audit procedures to address the identified risks of material misstatement posed by the degree of complexity, extent of management judgment and estimation uncertainty in determining the ECL amount;

* Apply professional skepticism throughout the audit by developing independent estimates, performing sensitivity analyses, back testing and benchmarking, and examining subsequent events to evaluate the reasonableness of ECL estimates, assessing and reviewing the bank’s controls in mitigating potential management bias (e.g., management override of internal controls), critically evaluating all available audit evidence, and assessing the appropriateness and accuracy of the bank’s responses to questions; and,

* Assess the completeness, reliability and accuracy of financial statement disclosures, including the disclosures on the accounting policies applied by the bank, key assumptions used in ECL estimates and the credit risk in the bank’s portfolios.

As banks’ management teams prepare for the transition to and adoption of IFRS 9, audit committees will play a significant role in ensuring that banks produce high-quality estimates of ECL, financial statement disclosures and evaluating the effectiveness of the auditor’s response to the risks of material misstatement posed by ECL estimates.  Audit committees will need to assess and monitor the effectiveness of auditors by considering whether auditors have the appropriate skills, knowledge and resources to address the risks involved in the bank’s estimation of ECL, assessing the appropriateness of the planned audit approach, as well as any deviations from the planned audit approach during the course of the audit, and evaluating the auditors’ findings based on the auditors’ understanding of the bank’s processes, systems and controls.

Looking ahead, the GPPC anticipates the evolution of general banking practices regarding the estimation of ECL because of new challenges and insights that may arise. In this context, banks, regulators and auditors will need to continuously monitor upcoming developments and assess any effects and changes on their respective responsibilities.

This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinion expressed above are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.

Suits the C-Suite resumes on 8 January 2018. Warmest greetings of the season and a happy New Year to all our readers!

Geraldine Rose V. Ogerio is a Senior Director of SGV & Co.

Towards Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration in Asia and the Pacific

By Dr. Shamshad Akhtar

In 2017, Asia and the Pacific will be home to 62 million international migrants. That’s a population larger than the Republic of Korea’s. Even more people from our region — over 100 million — live outside their countries of birth.

At the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) we see this as an opportunity. One we should seize to shape a better future for our region.

There are many reasons for which people migrate. Students do so looking for an education unavailable in their own county, to broaden their horizons and improve their prospects. Some migrants are refugees, fleeing violence and persecution.

In our region, we have tragically seen hundreds of thousands of civilians, the clear majority Rohingya, flee their homes in Myanmar to seek safety in Bangladesh in what the UN Secretary General has rightly described as a refugee emergency: an unacceptable humanitarian and human rights nightmare that must be brought to end.

But most migrants move in search of jobs, higher wages and a better life for themselves and their families. Their remittances — $276 million dollars in Asia-Pacific in 2017 alone — provide welcome support to communities in their countries of origin.

Put simply, remittances feed children, pay for education and healthcare and lift people out of poverty.

But if migrants move for their own benefit, they also do in response to the needs of the countries to which they travel. By moving where the jobs are, migrants support innovation, productivity, and growth.

Migrants’ contribution is all the more remarkable considering the challenges they face on arrival, after long, expensive and perilous journeys. Migrants are often poorly paid and have limited access to public services. They tend to work in low skill jobs in the informal sector. Debts taken out to pay illegal fees to secure employment mean they can have little choice but to accept dangerous physical labor. Female migrants are particularly vulnerable. Often employed as domestic workers, they can suffer exploitation and abuse. To compound matters, migrants are frequently turned into scapegoats, their contribution downplayed by inaccurate, prejudice-fuelled narratives.

Addressing these challenges could help unleash migrants’ potential as a force for positive change. The economic dynamism of the Asia-Pacific region and its ageing population means migrants could play an even bigger role in our economies and societies, plugging labour and skill shortages.

But for them to do so, clear policies are needed to protect migrants’ rights in the workplace, improve their access to essential services and make it easier for them to help families they have had to leave behind.

This was recognised by Member States of the United Nations in the wake of the European refugee crisis when a bold initiative was launched to negotiate a global compact for safe, orderly, and regular migration by 2018.

At its heart lies a simple ambition: to protect migrants’ human rights.

Grounded in existing laws and practices, and with full respect for Member States’ sovereignty, this compact should lay the foundations for international cooperation for the benefit of countries of origin, destination, and the migrants themselves.

To help shape this agenda, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific held a regional consultation in November. Governments, civil society and the private sector met to identify regional trends, share best practice and agree on priorities to feed into global negotiations. Several key priorities emerged: protecting migrants against exploitation by unscrupulous employers by facilitating legal migration; ensuring migrants can transfer money quickly, securely and at low cost; cracking down on human trafficking; and helping those who may be forced to move because of natural disasters exacerbated by climate change.

There was strong commitment on all sides to cooperate to drive this agenda forward. I hope International Migrants Day can help keep up the momentum, promote the positive contribution migrants make in our region and help achieve safe, orderly and regular migration across Asia and the Pacific.

Shamshad Akhtar is the Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and the Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

Bond market counts losers and winners

ONE OF THE MOST lucrative places for this year’s bond investor was in mines from Brazil to Mexico. One of the worst was North American malls.

And as the year draws to a close, investors are wondering where they’ll end up in 2018 as the global spigot of financial stimulus slowly turns off.

Commodity firms such as Vale SA and Southern Copper Corp. were among the credit market darlings this year, racking up total returns of as much as 30%, data compiled by Bloomberg through Thursday show. Europe’s riskier financial debt was another winner, also posting significant advances. At the other end of the scale were drug maker Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. and Toys “R” Us Inc., the retailer that filed for bankruptcy in the US and whose bonds posted losses creeping toward 70%.

“The bounce back in global economic growth was more widespread and robust than people anticipated and the winners were big macro-economic driven sectors like metals and mining,” said Stephen Philipson, US Bancorp’s head of fixed income and capital markets. “The dynamic in the US has been the Amazon effect, with some companies and sectors struggling to compete and define themselves in the new online economy.”

As investors put the year to bed, what awaits is the gradual withdrawal of unprecedented central-bank bond-buying that pushed investors to higher-yielding assets, stirring calls that risk was being mispriced. With US interest rates poised to rise, tax reforms being enacted and a bull market that’s getting old, the 2018 outlook for credit is at best muddy.

“This year was about finding risks you wanted to take; the emerging-market credit or the credit that cooperated with synchronized global growth,” said Henry Peabody, a money manager at Eaton Vance Corp. “Next year is almost the opposite: it’s concern about complacency and about the risks of reaching for yield.”

THE BEST: METALS AND MINING
Investment returns: They may not be digging exclusively for bullion, but miners struck gold this year. Base metals had a stellar 2017, driven by a pickup in global growth, China’s commitment to cut production of metals that pollute and the Trump administration’s pro-growth and made-in-America policies. Bonds of Southern Copper, Vale, Barrick Gold Corp., Goldcorp Inc. and Newmont Mining Corp. have posted returns as high as 30% this year, and they may have more room to run.

What’s next: The price rally may get a further boost during the coming months when China, which produces about half the world’s steel and aluminum, plans to accelerate the cuts. Steel output in November was the lowest in nine months, and aluminum production is at the lowest since February 2016.

THE BEST: RISKIER FINANCIAL DEBT
Investment returns: “Eye watering,” is the verdict from CreditSights. Gains in the $150 billion additional Tier 1 asset class were about 14% this year, twice that of euro-denominated junk bonds, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data. That’s despite four bank failures in Italy and Spain, where some creditors lost everything. Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG and Italy’s UniCredit SpA helped spur the rally by shoring up their reserves with a combined €21 billion ($25 billion) of share sales.

AT1s are the first bank bonds eligible for losses if a lender runs into trouble. Investors are betting that economic growth will revive earnings at banks, making it less likely that will happen again any time soon. UniCredit issued €1 billion of AT1s for a 5.375% coupon this week, compared with 9.25% one year ago.

Insurers are also tapping demand, with ASR Nederland NV selling a 300 million euro Restricted Tier 1 note, the industry’s new equivalent to AT1, in October.

“You know what I like? High yield. You know what I like even more? AT1’s in Europe. That to me is the greatest story out there,” Lisa Coleman, head of global investment-grade credit at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Friday. “You’ve got an improving Europe, growth is great, you’ve got banks that have built up capital. Why not come down in capital structure there?”

What’s next: Investors’ short memories and risk appetite will be tested in 2018 by weaker lenders. Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA plans to sell junior debt next year as little as six months after imposing losses on those creditors as part of a government bailout. Still, bond investors are discriminating between stronger and weaker lenders.

THE WORST: TEVA
Investment returns: Teva, the Israeli drug maker suffering from ill-timed acquisitions and rising competition for its generic medicines, has been the biggest loser in investment grade debt this year. Its $3.5 billion of 3.15% notes have returned minus 5.3% this year, and the €1.5 billion of 1.125% bonds have fared even worse.

What’s next: Chief Executive Officer Kare Schultz, who took the helm last month, plans to cut 14,000 jobs globally in an attempt to reduce expenses by $3 billion by the end of 2019. Teva’s stock jumped the most on record on the news, but bondholders were not as enthused. Fitch Ratings cut Teva to junk in November, while Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings have maintained their lowest IG ratings. All three have warned another downgrade is possible.

A representative for Teva declined to comment.

THE WORST: TOYS ‘R’ US
Investment returns: Toys “R” Us shocked bond traders in September when it announced its plan to reorganize $5 billion of debt in bankruptcy court, much of that stemming from a leveraged buyout in 2005. The company’s 7.375% bonds due October 2018, which are now in default, have returned negative 66% this year and are now quoted at 32 cents on the dollar. Two weeks before the filing, those notes were trading at 97.25 cents.

What’s next: Even the retailers that no one’s expecting to fail with the swiftness that Toys “R” Us did can be at risk as competition from Amazon.com Inc. intensifies and fewer shoppers visit brick-and-mortar stores. Apparel and accessories chains are already on creditors’ radars because, like the toy retailer, they have large debt loads, looming maturities and weakening results that could force a restructuring at some point.

A representative for Toys “R” Us didn’t immediately return a request for comment.

THE WORST: REMINGTON
Investment returns: Though US President Donald Trump told gun manufacturers his election would give them a “friend” in the White House, Remington Outdoor Co. has misfired since. The struggling gunmaker controlled by Cerberus Capital Management is grappling with surging inventories and debt amid plunging revenue. Its 7.875% third-lien bonds have posted a 71% loss this year and now trade at 21 cents on the dollar. A year ago, they were quoted as high as 86 cents.

What’s next: A debt reorganization is all but sure to come. S&P Global Ratings cut Remington’s rating by two levels to CCC- last month, citing a “heightened risk of a restructuring of some form” over the next six to 12 months. Moody’s Investors Service, noting a term loan coming due in 2019, said there’s an elevated risk of a distressed exchange or some action that might put the company at risk of default.

A representative for Cerberus didn’t immediately return a request for comment.

For some investors, it adds up to a year of too easily tolerating too much risk which doesn’t bode well.

“Sometime in 2017 people decided the sky would never fall,” said Dan Zwirn, chief executive officer at Arena Investors. “Asset prices range from what is grossly overvalued to what is even more grossly overvalued. That has to end.”  Reuters

Indonesians protest over Trump’s Jerusalem stance

JAKARTA — Tens of thousands of Muslims marched from the main mosque in Indonesia’s capital to a square in Jakarta on Sunday to protest against US President Donald J. Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

It was the biggest protest in Indonesia since Mr. Trump’s controversial move earlier this month to reverse decades of US policy. Police estimated the number attending the rally, organized by various Muslim groups, at about 80,000.

The protest was peaceful but rows of police behind coils of barbed wire held back the crowd outside the US embassy in Jakarta. A police spokesman said 20,000 police and members of the military were deployed to ensure security.

“We urge all countries to reject the unilateral and illegal decision of President Donald Trump to make Jerusalem Israel’s capital,” Anwar Abbas, the secretary general of the Indonesian Ulema Council, told the crowd.

“We call on all Indonesian people to boycott US and Israel products in this country” if Mr. Trump does not revoked his action, Mr. Abbas said, reading from a petition due to be handed to the US ambassador in Indonesia.

Many of the protesters were clad in white and waved Palestinian flags and held up placards, some reading: “Peace, love and free Palestine.” There have been a series of protests in Indonesia over the issue, including some where hardliners burned US and Israeli flags.

The status of Jerusalem, a city holy to Jews, Muslims and Christians, is one of the biggest barriers to a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Jerusalem’s eastern sector was captured by Israel in a 1967 war and annexed in a move not recognized internationally.

Palestinians claim East Jerusalem for the capital of an independent state that they seek, while Israel maintains that all of Jerusalem is its capital. — Reuters