THE PHILIPPINES’ trade-in-goods deficit widened to a two-month high in March as both exports and imports picked up, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Wednesday.
Preliminary data from the PSA showed the country’s trade balance in goods stood at a $4.13-billion deficit in March, 23% higher than the $3.35-billion gap a year ago.
Month on month, the gap was 19.4% bigger than the $3.46-billion deficit in February.
March marked the widest trade deficit in two months or since the $5.12-billion deficit in January.
The country’s balance of trade in goods has been in a deficit for 118 straight months since the $64.95-million surplus recorded in May 2015.
In March, merchandise exports jumped by an annual 5.9% to $6.59 billion, marking the third straight month of growth.
It was also a turnaround from the 5.9% contraction in the same month last year.
By value, this was the highest export level since the $6.75 billion in August 2024.
Meanwhile, imports climbed by 11.9% year on year to $10.72 billion in March, the fastest pace in 11 months since the 13.2% logged in April 2024.
The value of imports was also the biggest since $11.49 billion in January.
In the first quarter, the trade deficit stood at $12.71 billion, widening by 12.8% from the $11.26-billion gap a year ago.
Exports expanded by 5.9% to $19.27 billion in the first three months of 2025, while imports rose by 8.4% to $31.98 billion.
The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) projects 6% and 5% growth in exports and imports, respectively, this year.
SEMICONDUCTOR SLUMP
Exports of manufactured goods, which made up 80.7% of the country’s total exports, grew by an annual 5.2% to $5.32 billion in March. Exports of agro-based products jumped by 27% to $586.86 million.
By commodity group, electronic products, which made up 55.2% of exported manufactured goods, inched up by 0.9% year on year to $3.64 billion in March.
Semiconductors, which accounted for 40.8% of electronic product exports, shrank by 3.8% to $2.69 billion in March.
Exports of other manufactured goods climbed 39.5% to $434.41 million, while other mineral products grew by 28.2% to $246.56 million in March. Coconut oil exports surged by 78% to $240.77 million.
The United States remained the top destination for Philippine-made goods in March, with exports valued at $1.11 billion accounting for 16.8% of the total.
This was followed by Hong Kong with $1.01 billion (15.3% share), Japan with $960.5 million (14.6%), China with $762.78 million (11.6%), and Singapore with $273.74 million (4.2%).
Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr., president of Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc., said in a phone interview that exports are “inching up slowly but surely.”
“Unfortunately, we are still not able to meet our original targets for exports, but we hope to make at least $110 billion. The original target is $120 billion,” he said.
RECOVERY IN RAW MATERIALS
Meanwhile, imports of raw materials and intermediate goods, which had the biggest share of total imports at 36.5%, jumped by 22.4% to $3.92 billion in March from $3.2 billion a year earlier.
Imports of capital goods grew by 12.2% to $3.16 billion, while consumer goods increased by 25.8% to $2.3 billion.
“We saw a healthy recovery in imports of raw materials and capital goods, possibly as firms were able to finally restart their capacity building after the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) decided to support the economy by cutting rates,” Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, a senior economist at the Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., said.
Mr. Mapa noted the rebound in capital and raw materials imports was accompanied by “sustained consumer imports, reflecting healthy household consumption, which points to a decent first-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) print.”
By commodity group, electronic products had the highest import value at $2.52 billion, up 24.8% in March from $2.02 billion a year ago.
Imports of semiconductors, which accounted for the bulk of electronic products, jumped by 21.4% to $1.69 billion.
Imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, on the other hand, declined by 23.1% year on year to $1.31 billion, while transport equipment rose by 12.1% to $1.06 billion.
China was the biggest source of imports in March with $3.1 billion worth of goods, accounting for 28.9% of the total import bill.
It was followed by Indonesia with $888.27 million (8.3% share), Japan with $834.38 million (7.8%), South Korea with $728.94 million (6.8%), and Thailand with $627.65 million (5.9%).
“We’ll need to see how trade flows perform in the coming months as the pickup in both imports and exports could have been frontloading activity carried out by traders in anticipation of Trump’s trade war. If exports continue while imports sustain their growth on investment activity by firms despite the Trump trade war, this could bode well for overall Philippine economic growth prospects,” Mr. Mapa said.
In April, US President Donald J. Trump implemented a 10% blanket tariffs on all its trading partners. However, his plan to impose higher reciprocal tariffs on most countries, including the Philippines, has been suspended until July.
Philippine exports to the US are facing a 17% tariff, the second lowest among Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries after Singapore’s baseline rate of 10%.
Mr. Mapa said the trade outlook is uncertain but imports of raw materials, capital goods and consumer goods are expected to continue.
“Exports, meanwhile, may face a challenging year; however, the Philippines could find alternative markets for outbound shipments,” he added.
For his part, Mr. Ortiz said exports may sustain growth this year although there will be some challenges.
He said he does not think exports and imports will achieve the original growth targets for this year.
“We’ll probably fall short by a little, not much. It’s hard to predict the next few months because of the uncertain and very volatile US policies… Hopefully at this stage, it won’t be too negative on us. We may also find opportunities,” Mr. Ortiz said. — JPGV
