AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION likely sustained growth this quarter despite storms that cost the sector about P4 billion worth of losses, a Cabinet official and private sector experts said in recent interviews.

“Hope to have between 2.5% to 3.0% [due to] productivity increase and hard work of the farmers and fishers, plus support from DA (Department of Agriculture),” Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said in a mobile phone message when asked for his estimate for fourth-quarter farm performance.

Three storms hit the country in these past two months. DA data as of Dec. 10 showed that Typhoon Nakri, locally known as Quiel, which hit early in November caused agriculture damage worth about P334.207 million; Typhoon Kalmaegi, locally known as Ramon, which hit the country in mid-November led to an estimated damage of about P26.607 million; while Typhoon Kammuri, or Tisoy, which hit the country early this month, caused P3.7 billion worth of agriculture production loss as of Dec. 13. In total, this quarter has seen about P4.061 billion in agriculture losses, according to the department.

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that agriculture output grew 1.8% year on year in 2018’s final quarter on the back of higher crops, livestock, poultry and fisheries production, pushing full-year growth to 0.56% that, in turn, was a marked slowdown from 2017’s 3.96% expansion.

Fourth-quarter farm data will be released next month, a few days ahead of fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 gross domestic product report. Agriculture accounts for about a fourth of jobs in the country but contributes just a tenth to overall economic production.

In the third quarter, the sector grew 2.87%, the fastest in more than two years despite a 4.53% drop in output of palay, which contributed 15% to the total value of farm output in that period.

Agriculture production expanded just 0.77% in the first three quarters, against a 2.5-3.5% target range under the 2017-2022 Philippine Development Plan.

“I am optimistic,” Philippine Institute for Development Studies Research Fellow Roehlano M. Briones said in a telephone interview, adding that in the “[l]ast quarter, maganda ’yung recovery ng agriculture (recovery has been good).”

Mr. Briones said “parang nag-normalize na ’yung palay prices (seem to have normalized)… after the initial shock and the adjustment of farmers” after the government opened up rice importation in March, leading to a flood of imports that depressed prices.

Hence, he said, “magre-resume ’yung previous growth trend (will resume)” for palay as farmers have resumed planting.

Senen U. Reyes, senior management specialist at the Center for Food and Agribusiness of the University of Asia and the Pacific, said that recent storms should not affect agriculture’s overall performance much, even as he did not give an estimate for the fourth quarter.

“I don’t see significant impact of Q4 typhoons on overall agriculture performance… While rice main cropping is Q4, the typhoons came at the tail end. Corn main cropping was in Q3,” he said in a text message.

“Our full-year projection is 1-2%,” Mr. Reyes said, citing government interventions like cash transfers and loan assistance to rice farmers amid depressed prices and the stricter issuance of rice import permits, as well as steps to curb the spread of African Swine Fever. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

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