Philippines’ strategic partnership with India could irk China — analysts

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio and Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporters

CHINA may become more aggressive in asserting its South China Sea claims after the Philippines and India forged a strategic partnership, a move that could help counter Beijing’s expansive claims in the disputed waters, analysts said on Sunday.

Manila and New Delhi’s shared disputes with China may signal to Beijing that their deepening ties are aimed at challenging its influence in the Indo-Pacific region, said Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a diplomacy instructor at the De La Salle-College of St. Benilde’s School of Diplomacy and Governance.

“China will undoubtedly undertake more aggressive actions brought about by the deepening of ties between the Philippines and India,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

The Chinese Embassy in Manila did not immediately reply to a Viber message seeking comment.

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., last week went on a five-day state visit to India, during which Manila elevated its ties with New Delhi to a strategic partnership and secured a range of agreements spanning defense, maritime cooperation, and investments.

His visit coincided with a joint patrol by the Philippine and Indian navies in the South China Sea, which began before he left for New Delhi — the first for both forces in the disputed waters.

China asserts a sweeping claim over the South China Sea based on its so-called nine-dash line, which overlaps with the exclusive economic zones of countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

A 2016 ruling by a United Nations-backed tribunal in The Hague voided Beijing’s claim, but China has rejected the decision and maintains significant naval presence in contested areas, including the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal.

Clashes between Philippine and Chinese vessels have intensified in recent months, as Manila pushes back against what it calls repeated incursions into its waters.

“Similar to us, India is also facing a territorial tension with Beijing, hence the latter might perceive this heightened cooperation as a way for the two countries to challenge its might,” said Mr. Cortez.

Like the Philippines, India has been entangled in border disputes with China along the mountainous Himalayan region. The two nuclear-armed nations share about 4,000 kilometers of border, much of which is contested.

“The cooperation between the two not only complicates Beijing’s efforts to isolate the Philippines,” Rocio Salle Gatdula, a defense economist studying security at Georgetown University, said in a Facebook chat. “It also broadens the number of external actors with a stake in regional stability that prompts China to reassess its strategy and posture.”

Deeper engagements between the Philippines and India could help accelerate the Southeast Asian nation’s military modernization and bolster self-reliance in defense manufacturing, Ms. Gatdula said.

“By tapping into India’s growing defense industry, the Philippines gains access to modern yet affordable military hardware, potential avenues for co-development and technology transfers that can boost local defense manufacturing,” she said.

Industrial defense cooperation and joint arms production could result from deepening Philippine-Indian ties, alongside possible joint military exercises, Don McLain Gill, who teaches international relations at De La Salle University, said in a Facebook chat.

People-to-people exchanges would also be strengthened due to the improved ties, he added. “We are also enhancing scholar-to-scholar, expert-to-expert, civil society-to-civil society cooperation… we expect that there will be more annual track 2 exchanges.”

TAIWAN CONFLICT
While in India, Mr. Marcos also said the Philippines would likely be involved in a conflict over Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory. Reuters reported that China’s foreign ministry accused the Philippines of “playing with fire” over the Mr. Marcos’ Taiwan remarks.

“The Philippines is a natural neighbor of Taiwan, and the defensive statements of President Marcos is a manifestation that whatever happens in the Taiwan Strait, northern Philippines will suffer from the ripple effects,” Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation said in a Messenger chat.

Raymond M. Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, last week said in an X post that China Coast Guard vessels were seen “bracketing” Batanes Islands, which lies less than 200 kilometers from the self-ruling island of Taiwan, in what he called as a “new level of aggression” from Chinese ships.

“The timing of the deployment and official government statements suggest strongly that the current maritime aggression is a dramatic People’s Republic of China overreaction to President Marcos’ comments about Taiwan,” he said in a Facebook chat.

SEA CODE
Mr. Marcos last week reiterated his call for a legally binding code of conduct in the disputed waterway as Manila prepares for its 2026 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Analysts said the Philippines must leverage its economic ties with China to forge a long-delayed South China Sea code of conduct among the ASEAN members, with Manila urging regional partners to align trade opportunities with peace efforts, according to a diplomacy analyst.

Josue Raphael J. Cortez, an ASEAN Studies lecturer at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said that Manila sees economic incentives as the strongest means to keep Beijing engaged in a South China Sea pact, noting that stability could help Beijing find new markets, improve its image in ASEAN, and attract more foreign investment.

“The economic facet may be considered as the most influential element that we may maximize so as to ensure that China will continue to be committed to the cause,” he said via Facebook Messenger chat.

“Given that it (China) is our largest trading partner, and it is also in the process of searching for avenues where it can offer its products that are usually exported to Washington in great numbers, China may realize that aside from ensuring peace, this may also be the most viable way to improve its optics within Southeast Asia and the rest of the world,” Mr. Cortez added.

China and the US are in a trade war, marked by tit-for-tat tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology access. The dispute has disrupted global supply chains, driven companies to diversify manufacturing bases, and prompted Beijing to seek alternative markets to offset lost export opportunities to the US.

President Marcos last week affirmed that a legally binding code of conduct would help prevent collisions, artificial island construction, and aggressive behavior in the contested waters, particularly important given the Philippines’ position within the “hottest” part of the South China Sea.

Hosting ASEAN in 2026 provides a platform for Manila to fast-track the agreement and reinforce a rules-based maritime order. Mr. Marcos has highlighted the urgency of delivering the pact, calling on ASEAN members and China to move beyond talk and conclude the framework.

Negotiations on a unified stance against Beijing within ASEAN have been stalled for decades as some members pivot towards the world’s second-largest economy, despite signing in 2002 the non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties.

“Given that our respective national interests have their fair share of caveats, other state claimants may concur with the idea if they viewed its provisions as something that would not force them to alter the dynamics they have with their neighbors and with China,” according to Mr. Cortez.

“The code of conduct (COC), after all, is a political commitment; hence, given that we all seek regional security and stability, the political will of ASEAN leaders may be the driving force for us to achieve this COC, regardless of our differences.”

About $3.36 trillion worth of global trade passes through the South China Sea annually, underscoring the economic and strategic stakes.

The Philippines and China have built a robust but occasionally strained trade relationship, underpinned by Beijing’s position as Manila’s largest trading partner since 2016.

Bilateral trade reached over $80 billion in 2023, with Philippine exports — led by electronics, agricultural products such as bananas and pineapples, and mineral ores — flowing to China, while imports consist largely of machinery, steel, chemicals, and manufactured goods.

China is also a major investor in Philippine infrastructure, agriculture, and energy projects, with cooperation expanding under the Belt and Road Initiative.