PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Jan. 4, 2023. — COURTESY OF THE OFFICE OF THE PRESS SECRETARY WEBSITE

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

THE Philippines is expected to keep its diplomatic response to China measured in the coming months, prioritizing dialogue and economic stability as political and security tensions simmer, analysts said over the weekend.

By opting to exhaust diplomatic channels, the Philippine government is signaling its commitment to peaceful settlement of disputes and a pragmatic approach to managing disagreements with Beijing, said Josue Raphael J. Cortez, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Studies lecturer at the De La Salle-College of St. Benilde’s School of Diplomacy and Governance.

“Manila has to tread wisely,” he said via Facebook Messenger. “Our economic ties could be put in a perilous situation.”

This comes amid calls for the government to declare Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan persona non grata after verbal exchanges with Philippine officials — an option President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. already rejected.

“No matter our dispute with China, we cannot remove the fact that our relationship with them is among the most important and crucial,” Francis M. Esteban, a faculty member at the Far Eastern University Department of International Studies, said via Facebook Messenger.

China ranked as the Philippines’ fourth-largest export trading partner, with $790.15 million worth of exports in December, or 11.3% of the country’s total exports, according to data released by Manila’s statistics bureau on Jan. 27. It is also the Philippines’ leading supplier of imported goods, with shipments valued at $2.98 billion, accounting for 28.4% of total imports.

Despite vibrant economic ties, security remains the most persistent fault line in Philippine-China relations as tensions in the South China Sea overshadow trade gains.

Philippine officials have repeatedly flagged Chinese incursions into contested waters as a threat to sovereignty, even as bilateral commerce continues to expand.

Mr. Esteban said declaring an envoy persona non grata is the “highest and harshest” form of punitive action and is typically treated as a last resort after all other measures have failed.

He said it is highly unlikely that such a move would be taken against China’s ambassador, given the depth of bilateral ties.

“I think it’s becoming a battle of the narratives, which might influence the outcomes of the 2028 elections, as we know China seems to support a Duterte candidacy,” said Mr. Esteban.

DIPLOMATIC TOOLS
Manila has a range of tools at its disposal, including mechanisms already in place. The Bilateral Consultation Mechanism with China could be expanded to address incidents and prevent their recurrence, Mr. Cortez said.

The Philippines, as chair of the ASEAN, may also raise concerns through platforms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum to ensure disputes do not derail cooperation in other areas. It could also serve as an avenue for the Philippines to push for the long-delayed legally binding sea code with China.

Concluding such an agreement would serve the interests of all parties amid growing global volatility, Mr. Cortez noted.

At the global level, the Philippines could consult the United Nations if tensions worsen, a route it has considered in the past.

While powerful states often follow international norms selectively, China’s push to project itself as a proponent of multilateralism may leave room for engagement should the issue be elevated to international forums, according to Mr. Cortez.

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