PHL stocks slump on US-China trade deal fears

May 6, 2019 | 9:40 pm

By Arra B. Francia, Senior Reporter

LOCAL EQUITIES fell on Monday as sentiment turned sour following US President Donald J. Trump’s threats to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) slumped 1.32% or 105.68 points to close at 7,862.30. The broader all-shares index likewise dropped 0.94% or 46.20 points to 4,859.86.

“The increase in tariffs by Trump certainly was a factor in pulling our market lower,” AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. President William Matthew M. Cabangon said in a text message.

Mr. Trump tweeted early Monday morning that tariffs on 10% of certain Chinese goods will rise to 25% on Friday, and $325 billion of untaxed goods could face 25% tariffs “shortly.” He also said that the trade deal with China was moving “too slowly.”

China is said to be considering canceling trade talks, which were scheduled to resume in Washington this Wednesday.

Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan also attributed Monday’s decline to US-China trade issues.

“The trade talk at risk of a collapse/ and the heightening of geopolitical risk headlined today’s market sell-off,” Mr. Limlingan said in a mobile phone message on Monday.

Market futures in the US pointed toward losses in Monday’s trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down by 1.81%. S&P 500 futures were lower by 1.67%, while Nasdaq Composite futures also down by 2.03%.

Back home, AAA Southeast Equities’ Mr. Cabangon also added that sentiment has been especially weak because of the PSEi’s failure to hold above the 8,000 level. The main index managed to close at 8,001.57 on May 2, but quickly fell to the 7,900 mark the next day as investors decided to take profits.

“8,000 has proven to be a very strong resistance level for our market, which can discourage investors from buying again at those levels in the near future,” Mr. Cabangon explained.

All sectoral indices ended in the red, with financials leading the decline at 2.18% or 38.81 points to 1,735.65.

Property retreated 1.79% or 76.67 points to 4,196.64; services shed 1.1% or 17.81 points to 1,596.64; industrials slipped 1.02% or 121.29 points to 11,710.81; holding firms declined 0.67% or 51.45 points to 7,540.83; while mining and oil dipped 0.65% or 50.91 points to close at 7,687.45 on Monday.

Value turnover stood at P6.26 billion after some 719.41 million issues switched hands, down from Friday’s P8.18 billion.

Decliners were nearly triple the advancers, 146 to 56, while 35 names were unchanged.

Still, net foreign outflows slimmed to P22.23 million compared to the previous session’s P68.16 million.

The lowest level of pain

May 6, 2019 | 9:39 pm

By Tony Samson

AN ITCH is medically considered the lowest level of pain. Even as it sits at the low end of the agony ladder, the itch cannot be ignored. It can be annoying when lodged at a hard-to-reach part of the body when in the company of others. All the same this pain is easily relieved with a simple scratch.

Still, with the manifestation of allergies and skin rashes ranging from eczema to skin asthma, an itch is not so easily relieved. Only a vigorous assault leading to the scarring of the skin can the pain be assaulted. The persistent itch can then be the manifestation of real pain.

Some itches are not so easily eliminated by the mere application of fingernails and back scratchers.

At its basest form, the itch is a metaphor for an obsession. A man whose desires are too openly displayed is said to be itching to do something, maybe something innocent like a craving for roast pork. In the vernacular, the propensity to scratch a psychological itch, or have it scratched, is unfairly applied to women, showing the dominance of a matriarchal culture which elevates females to itchless creatures.

A woman too showy with her affections and accommodating with her favors is whispered about as “itchy”, especially by fellow females. Such a scratchy propensity is not limited by age.

Itches are passions. None of us are free of them. We only vary in our objects of desire. If an itch is the lowest form of pain, the hobby may be its equivalent in the matter of obsessions. Hobbies are considered harmless until they escalate into full-blown addictions. Thus, the weekend poker player justifying his habit as just bonding with the boys escalates the itch to real pain when involving “real money”. Once the addiction takes hold bigger stakes and more frequent visits to the casino follow.

Removing an itch by scratching can be a cheap delight. It reminds one of Oscar Wilde’s prescription on willpower and dispensing with it altogether — “The best way to get rid of temptation is to yield to it.” The remedy for itches and minor temptations seem to call only for one’s natural inclination of attending to them quickly — here’s the backscratcher, Pal.

As they climb up the ladder of pain and discomfort, itches can no longer be ignored. They may be symptoms of far worse maladies. Then, scratching merely provides temporary relief. As with the blackmailer that starts out with modest payments for hiding a secret, the very willingness to scratch rather than resist the itch only leads to escalation of demands.

As every collector knows, the line between a hobby and an addiction can be slowly crossed. When the itch moves from irritant to howling pain, it is too late to go back. Only the first acquisition of a collector is tentative as the subsequent ones now combine expertise and arrogance. This itch for more is true of any collection, be it stamps, butterflies, art, walking sticks, women, and companies. The costs of the last two can exceed the acquisition price as they progress into further maintenance and operating expenses. They then become black holes (astrologically speaking) that suck up fortunes that include debt and broken hearts to blossom into real agony. Trying to stop the pain with sheer willpower ushers in withdrawal symptoms, often involving bank balances.

Is there a political equivalent of the itch?

The urge to “run for office” is an itch. It is a combination of the urge to serve (can’t you help the community as an ordinary citizen?) as well as the unexpressed desire for power and adulation. Just because you think you are popular in your subdivision doesn’t mean you can win an election, even for president of the homeowners’ association.

There is too the lowest form of pain for the body politic. Traffic woes are itches. So is the growing lack of civility in political discourse. What about the discomfort with growing incursions of a foreign power and the crackdown on critical thinking?

An itch that is not relieved quickly and left unattended can climb the ladder to a higher level of pain. The gradual ascent is not even noticeable…until it is impossible to ignore or attend to.

Tony Samson is Chairman and CEO, TOUCH xda

ar.samson@yahoo.com

Germany needs a global role to suit its size

May 6, 2019 | 9:39 pm

WHEN US Vice-President Mike Pence declared in a speech marking NATO’s 70^th anniversary that “too many” alliance members have failed to increase spending on their militaries, he singled out one by name. “Germany must do more,” he said, adding that “it is simply unacceptable for Europe’s largest economy to … neglect its own self-defense and our common defense at such a level.”

The broadside was hardly unexpected: The Trump administration has made a habit of deriding America’s European allies as free riders. The complaints are overdone, but not entirely wrong. Rather than bristle, Germany’s leaders should take up the challenge — and assume global responsibilities commensurate with the country’s economic strength. This would be good for Europe, and for Germany.

Upgrading the country’s armed forces is the first step. Years of neglect have left the Bundeswehr in dismal condition. More than half of its tanks, helicopters and fighter planes have been judged unfit for deployment, and all six of its submarines are too hobbled to leave port. The standing army, which had some 500,000 troops at the end of the Cold War, now numbers only 180,000 — among the smallest in NATO, on a per capita basis.

The government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who plans to retire in 2021, has tried to shake the country’s aversion to foreign military interventions. German troops are active in Afghanistan and Mali and lead a NATO battalion deployed to Lithuania to deter Russian aggression. Germany will spend 43 billion euros on defense this year, some 26% more than it did a decade ago.

That’s still just 1.3% of Germany’s GDP — far less than the 2% target all NATO members agreed to in 2014, a cudgel Trump has wielded repeatedly against Berlin. Merkel has pledged to spend 1.5% of GDP by 2024, but faces resistance from her coalition partner, the center-left Social Democratic Party. Public opinion is no more favorable: Growing numbers say Germany should become more active in international crises, but just 32% of Germans support more spending on defense.

While pressing that case, Merkel and the defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, should aim to get more from what’s already being spent. They should reform the military’s inefficient procurement system, a cause of chronic delays and cost overruns. Closer coordination with other European armies could help to eliminate redundant weapons systems and reduce training costs. And much-needed investments in domestic infrastructure — such as improving Germany’s notoriously patchy broadband network — will yield benefits for the Bundeswehr and civilians alike.

Soft power matters too. Germany needs to bolster its diplomatic corps, which has nearly 1,000 fewer diplomats than in 1990. Among OECD countries, it’s the second largest donor of development aid in real dollars, but spends less as a proportion of its national income than the U.K., Denmark, Norway, Luxembourg and Sweden. Given its size and resources, Germany could take the lead in promoting development, good governance and private investment in Africa — which would counter Chinese influence on the continent and help to prevent future migration crises in Europe.

The biggest challenge facing Germany is to advance Europe’s cohesion and democratic identity. Berlin should champion proposals to tie EU funds to member governments’ adherence to the rule of law and create an EU fund for civil-society groups that defend liberal values. And it should resist Russian attempts to weaken European solidarity — which means, among other things, heeding allies’ objections to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas from Russia to Germany.

During Merkel’s 13-year tenure, Germany has been a responsible and largely stabilizing force on the world stage — a role that’s all the more vital in the age of Trump. But Germany could and should do more. Merkel should bequeath her successors a more fitting and ambitious vision of what comes next.

BLOOMBERG

FEU emphasizes focus and will to win in rubber match

May 6, 2019 | 8:13 pm

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo
Senior Reporter

THE FAR EASTERN University Lady Tamaraws lived to fight another day in Season 81 of the University Athletic Association of the Philippines after they negated a twice-to-win disadvantage in the semifinals against the Ateneo Lady Eagles with a hard-earned five-sets win in the first game at the weekend.

But the Morayta-based team recognizes that it is not out of the woods yet and that it has to stay on top of its game, not only skills-wise, in the rubber match on Wednesday if it is to realize its goal of advancing to the finals of the women’s volleyball tournament for the second straight year.

Getting valuable contributions from different sources in the opener of their Final Four on May 4, the Lady Tamaraws outlasted the top-seeds Lady Eagles in five sets, 10-25, 25-23, 25-22, 12-25 and 15-8, to force a do-or-die on May 8 at the FilOil Flying V Arena in San Juan City to determine who advance to the Big Dance.

FEU came out flat to begin the contest but dug deep in each of the next two sets to seize control of the match.

In the fourth frame, the Lady Tamaraws fell back and saw their opponents level the count.

But in the deciding set they would recalibrate, bucking a slow start to speed past the Lady Eagles the rest of the way and never looked back on their way to the victory.

The FEU veterans stepped up in their season-extending victory with graduating player Heather Guino-o leading the charge with 17 points and Nette Villareal adding 10.

Jerrili Malabanan had eight points while rookie France Ronquillo held her own with seven markers.

FEU coach George Pascua gave his players credit for stepping up to the challenge the way they did and responding to the call to play as if it is their last game.

“It’s a testament to the determination of the players to fight. This is a battle of character right now. We just told them to treat all of your games as a championship game,” said Mr. Pascua in the post-match interview.

To date, FEU has been 7-1 in five-setters this season.

Mr. Pascua reiterated that focus and will to win play a key part at this stage of the competition and the team which has them will give their cause a big boost.

“It’s no longer about the skills but more of the willingness to win. It’s already the semis and you have to go all out. All the weapons you have, you have to put it out there. Who has the heart and the mind to go for it will win it,” he said.

The FEU coach went on to say that the rubber match with Ateneo on Wednesday should be a tougher game and that they have to come in prepared as they can be.

“We still need to improve on things. Wednesday will be tougher game with a lot of pressure,” Mr. Pascua said.

The winner of the Ateneo-FEU semifinals will move on to the championship round against the University of Santo Tomas Golden Tigresses, who dethroned the defending champions De La Salle Lady Spikers in their Final Four bracket on Sunday in five sets.

UST carried a twice-to-beat advantage but saw no need to use it.

The best-of-three finals series of the women’s volleyball tournament of UAAP Season 81 begins on May 11.

Murray scores 34 as Nuggets even series

May 6, 2019 | 8:13 pm

LOS ANGELES — Jamal Murray scored 34 points and Nikola Jokic collected 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists as the visiting Denver Nuggets wrested back homecourt advantage with a 116-112 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers Sunday.

The Nuggets’ win squared the best-of-seven series at 2-2, with Game 5 Tuesday night in Denver.

Murray was 11-for-11 from the free-throw line, including six in the final 13.2 seconds to help the Nuggets stave off the Blazers. The 7-foot Jokic registered his second straight triple-double and his fourth of the postseason. Denver also got 21 points and 10 rebounds from Paul Millsap.

CJ McCollum scored 29 points and Damian Lillard added 28 for the Blazers.

Seth Curry came off the bench for 16 points on six-for-nine shooting — four-for-six from 3-point range. Curry had 14 of his points in the second quarter as the Blazers seized a 63-57 lead at halftime.

Four Blazers were in double figures by the break, including Al-Farouq Aminu (13), McCollum (12) and Lillard (10). Murray led Denver with 17 points.

The Nuggets went ahead 75-72 midway through the third quarter. Outscoring Portland 27-14 in the quarter, they carried an 84-77 advantage into the final period.

Denver led 87-77 before the Blazers went on an 8-0 tear to draw within 87-85. The Nuggets were in front 94-88 when Lillard sank a 3-pointer to cut it to 94-91 with 6:14 remaining. Denver stoked the difference to 99-93 with 5:16 left.

Lillard hit a pair of foul shots to close it to 99-98 with 3:26 to play. Will Barton’s 3 gave Denver a 102-98 lead, but Lillard answered with a layup to make it 102-100. After Gary Harris and McCollum traded baskets, Barton buried another 3 for a 107-102 Denver lead with 1:38 to go.

Aminu scored on a floater to cut it to 107-104, but Harris converted a three-point play for a 110-104 Denver lead with 1:03 remaining.

Rodney Hood hit a corner 3 with 52.2 seconds to go to trim the difference to 110-107. Lillard split a pair at the line to make it 110-108 with 20.3 seconds left. Two free throws by Murray increased the Nuggets’ edge to 112-108 with 13.2 seconds on the clock.

After Lillard scored on a layup with 7.7 seconds remaining, Murray hit a pair of free throws to make it 114-110 with 6.7 seconds to play. McCollum scored on a long two-point shot to cut it to 114-112 with 4.4 seconds to go, but Murray clinched it with another pair at the line with 3.4 ticks left.

KAWHI CARRIES TORONTO OVER PHILADELPHIA IN GAME 4
Kawhi Leonard had 39 points and 14 rebounds and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors defeated the host Philadelphia 76ers 101-96 on Sunday to even the Eastern Conference semifinals at two games apiece.

Marc Gasol scored 16 points and Kyle Lowry added 14 points and seven assists for Toronto.

Pascal Siakam, who had been doubtful with a sore calf, was in the starting lineup and missed his first seven shots, but he gave the Raptors a lift with nine points and three steals.

Game Five is Tuesday in Toronto.

Jimmy Butler paced the third-seeded Sixers with 29 points and 11 rebounds while JJ Redick added 19. Joel Embiid, who was reportedly ill, had only 11 points, eight rebounds and seven assists one game after scoring 33 in Philadelphia’s Game 3 victory.

Leonard was terrific with 17 points and 10 rebounds as the Raptors pulled ahead 47-45 at halftime. It was the first time in Leonard’s career that he posted at least 15 points and 10 rebounds in any half.

Butler was the only Philadelphia player in double figures with 14 points in the first half. Embiid appeared to be bothered by a left leg issue and finished the first two quarters with only six points and five rebounds.

Butler hit a difficult 3-pointer from the wing and the Sixers pulled ahead 57-52 with 7:48 left in the third.

Siakam finally recorded his first basket when he received a pass from Lowry and threw down a dunk for a 66-65 Raptors advantage with 4:15 remaining in the third.

Harris later drained a 3-pointer to give the Sixers a two-point lead with under a minute left in the quarter. Serge Ibaka then hit a jump hook in the lane and the Raptors tied the game at 75 at the end of the third.

The game became quite chippy with bodies falling to the floor and both teams diving for loose balls while playing a physical brand of basketball.

Leonard hit 1 of 2 two free throws and Toronto led 85-84 with 6:20 left.

Despite missing nine straight shots, the Sixers still trailed by only 89-87 with 2:35 remaining after a pair of Butler free throws.

Leonard’s trey with the shot clock running out gave the Raptors a 94-90 advantage with 1:01 left, and after Tobias Harris missed a 3-pointer on the 76ers’ ensuing possession, Toronto sealed the win by making 7 of 10 free throws down the stretch. — Reuters

Phenom Sports Management manages rising players’ career

May 6, 2019 | 8:12 pm

ALLYN Bulanadi, Mark Nonoy, Joshua Cajucom and Harvey Pagsanjan are the first ambassadors of the Phenom Sports Management, a group which manages the career of rising stars who are trying to take their game to the next level.

Bulanadi is a 6-foot-2 dead-shot forward from the San Sebastian Stags is also a standout of the Valencia-Baste in PBA D-League.

Nonoy, a former junior standout, is now a freshman playing for University of Santo Tomas. He was a basketball sensation from Western Visayas who made everybody’s heads turn in last year’s Palarong Pambansa. He is also considered among the top high school players in the nation.

Cajucom is a point guard from Hope Christian High School and currently included in the Gilas Pilipinas Under-19 squad.

Pagsanjan, a former standout of the Batang Gilas team that won the SEABA Under-16 tournament three years ago, is now a member of the University of the East Warriors squad. The 6-foot-1 guard is included in the top 10 of promising young players by the National Basketball Training Center.

These players will start off Phenom Sports Management’s vision of molding the character of young players who are not only being taught of taking care of their basketball careers but also preparing them on life after basketball.

Jax Chua, the founder of this group, admitted that he drew inspiration of creating this agency when they got involved in the Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League (MPBL).

Chua serves as the assistant general manager of the Basilan Steel headed by Hegem Furigay and ARMM Governor Mujiv Hataman.

Chua came the idea of putting up this sports agency while having breakfast during Basilan Steel’s series of tryouts and basketball camps in the province.

His coaches — Jerson Cabiltes, who handles the Basilan Steel in the MPBL and Joseph Guion — were very supportive on the program.

For Coach Guion, he believes making a gamble on these young players would be all worth it despite the uncertain future in basketball.

“We don’t know what’s going to happen whether they will be successful or not,” added Guion. “In every 10 players you’re going to help out, not everybody will become successful. That’s why we set a baseline of P150,000. If a player will get a playing contract or a salary that is below P150,000, we will not get anything from them. Less than P150,000, we’re waiving our commission. We will only get commission once a player gets P150,000 and up.” — Rey Joble

Better showing in last fight bodes well for Ancajas

May 6, 2019 | 8:11 pm

IT WAS another successful title defense for International Boxing Federation super flyweight champion Jerwin “Pretty Boy” Ancajas on Sunday in Stockton, California, and he did it in a more convincing and impressive fashion than his previous two fights, which bodes well for the Filipino moving forward, said a local fight analyst.

Dominant right from the start, Mr. Ancajas proved to be a handful against Japanese challenger and number one contender Ryuichi Funai, who was already broken down just halfway into their scheduled 12-rounder that the ring side doctor called for the fight to be stopped and hand the seventh-round technical knockout victory to the Davao del Norte native.

The TKO win came on the heels of Mr. Ancajas’s split draw outing against Mexican Alejandro Santiago in September and a unanimous decision victory over compatriot Julius Sultan prior to that, both of which were not warmly received by pundits and fans who felt he could have performed better in said fights.

For fight analyst Nissi Icasiano, to see Mr. Ancajas (31-1-2) with the kind of performance he had versus Mr. Funai brought delight to him and said it would benefit the Filipino champion’s standing as a top-caliber fighter.

“This win over Funai stretched Ancajas’ title defense streak to seven since he won the title in 2016. Not only that, this victory put him back to good standing as a titleholder in his talent-filled division following back-to-back humdrum performances,” said Mr. Icasiano in an online correspondence with BusinessWorld following Mr. Ancajas’s win.

“In this bout, they found a good dance partner for Jerwin Ancajas. Funai proved to be a welcoming target for Ancajas, who landed his right jab and straight left hand with frequency. The fourth round was all Ancajas as he punished Funai, recording a 43 to 5 edge in power shots during that three-minute period,” he added.

Mr. Icasiano underscored that quite evident in Mr. Ancajas in his recent fight was the confidence he showed, something that was lacking in his two previous fights, owing perhaps to the “unconventional styles” of Messrs. Santiago and Sultan he surmised.

“I am happy to see Jerwin Ancajas in his own element again. His body shots also were in full display, which was evidently missing in his last two matches,” he said.

Moving forward, Mr. Icasiano said the Funai win sets Mr. Ancajas back on track for more high-profile matches.

“Ancajas is vocal about his intention to fight the big names of his division. This match somehow puts him back in the conversation. In the past, Ancajas and his team mentioned the names of Srisaket Sor Rungvisai and Juan Francisco Estrada. A Filipino versus Filipino clash against either Donnie Nietes or Aston Palicte is likewise in the pipeline,” he said.

Mr. Ancajas has been a champion since September 2016 when he defeated McJoe Arroyo of Puerto Rico. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

You can feel the power

May 6, 2019 | 8:10 pm

6^th Vugar Gashimov Memorial
Shamkir, Azerbaijan
March 30-April 10, 2019

Final Standings (All Grandmasters)

1. Magnus Carlsen NOR 2845, 7.0/9

2-3. Ding Liren CHN 2812, Sergey Karjakin RUS 2753, 5.0/9

4-6. Teimour Radjabov AZE 2756, Alexander Grischuk RUS 2771, Viswanathan Anand IND 2779, 4.5/9

7-8. Veselin Topalov BUL 2740, David Navara CZE 2739, 4.0/9

9. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov AZE 2790, 3.5/9

10. Anish Giri NED 2797, 3.0/9

Average Rating: 2778 Category 22

Time Control: 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, then 60 minutes for the next 20 moves, then 15 minutes play-to-finish with 30 seconds added to your clock after every move starting move 61.

Magnus Carlsen put in a really marvelous performance in the Vugar Gashimov Memorial, not only in terms of points scored but also the high quality of play. Here are two good ones which deserve a place in the next edition of his best games.

The great tactician Alexei Shirov used to puzzle his readers when he claimed that his strength is in the endgame. Isn’t his name synonymous with a kingside attack? But he makes a great point — in the endgame there is no room for “positional considerations” or “strategical planning” — you have to calculate all lines to the very end, and that is where your tactical skill is needed.

The following game is a nice illustration of that.

Navara, David (2739) — Carlsen, Magnus (2845) [B33]
Gashimov Memorial 2019 Shamkir (3.3), 02.04.2019

1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 e5 6.Ndb5 d6 7.Nd5

The main line of the Sveshnikov is 7.Bg5 a6 8.Na3 b5 9.Nd5 by a factor of around 10 to 1; the move used in the game, 7.Nd5 is a far second. In his 2018 World Championship Match in London Magnus Carlsen turned to the Sveshnikov in four of the seven games where he had Black, and all four times his opponent Fabiano Caruana responded 7.Nd5.

7…Nxd5 8.exd5 Nb8

[In game 8 and 10 of their match Carlsen played the text move. In games 12 and 14 he tried 8…Ne7]

9.a4 Be7 10.Be2 0–0 11.0–0 Nd7 12.Kh1 a6 13.Na3 a5!

Black usually pushes …f7–f5 here and goes for a kingside assault. Carlsen’s idea is to play …a5 then …b6 before moving over to the kingside. That way it would be that much harder for White to get anything going on the queenside.

14.f4 f5 15.Nc4 b6 16.Ra3 exf4 17.Bxf4 Nc5 18.Re3?

A mistake. He should have played 18.Rg3 to prevent …g7–g5.

18…g5! 19.Rxe7

This was Navara’s intention, and after 19…Qxe7 he has 20.Bxd6. What he had forgotten was that after 19…gxf4 (instead of …Qxe7) his rook is stranded on e7.

19…gxf4! 20.Re6 Nxe6 21.dxe6 Bxe6 22.Rxf4 Bxc4 23.Bxc4+ Kh8

His mistake on the 18^th move has already cost the exchange. The Czech GM (Grandmaster) has no choice but to try and complicate the position.

24.g4?! Qf6 25.c3

[25.Rxf5 Qxb2]

25…Qe5 26.Qf1 Rae8 27.gxf5 Rf6 28.Qf2 Qc5 29.Kg2 Qc6+ 30.Kh3 Qc5 31.Kg2 Qxf2+ 32.Rxf2 Re4 33.Be6 Rxa4 34.Kf3 Kg7 35.Rd2 Kh6 36.Rxd6 Kg5 37.Rd8 Rh6 38.Rg8+ Kf6 39.Rb8 Rxh2 40.Rxb6 Kg5 41.f6 Rf4+ 42.Kg3 Rhf2 43.Rb5+ Kxf6 44.Bg4 a4 45.c4 Kg6 46.c5 <D>

POSITION AFTER 46.C5

46…a3!

The point is to make the c3 square available for his rook later to stop the c-pawn.

By the way, in the post-game conference the two players revealed that they both calculated that 46…h5 was only a draw: 47.Bxh5+ Kxh5 48.c6+ Kg6 49.c7 R4f3+ 50.Kg4 Rf8 51.Rb8 (51.Rb6+? Kg7 52.Rb8 Rc2) 51…R2f4+ 52.Kg3 Rf3+ 53.Kg2 (53.Kg4?? R8f4#) 53…Rf2+ 54.Kg1! (54.Kg3? Kg5! threatening …R8f3 checkmate. Now if 55.Rb5+ R2f5 the queening pawn on c7 is stopped 56.Rb8 Rf3+ 57.Kg2 Rf2+ 58.Kg1 Kh4 59.c8Q Rf1+ 60.Kg2 R8f2#) 54…Rf1+ 55.Kg2 R1f2+ draw;

In reality, as GM Aryan Tari shows, there is a flaw in the reasoning. Black still wins after 46…h5 because 47.Bxh5+ Kxh5 48.c6+ Black can bring his king to 48…Kh6! instead and now 49.c7 R4f3+ 50.Kg4 Rf8 51.Rb8 Rg2+! 52.Kh4 (it does not matter if the king goes to h3 or h4) 52…Rgg8! and the queening pawn is stopped as well.

Can you imagine going through all of those lines in your head at move 46 when you are already exhausted from the exertions of the past 45 moves?

47.bxa3

Both Carlsen and Navara pointed out that 47.c6 Rxb2 48.c7 Rc4 is an easy win for Black

47…h5 48.Rb4

[48.Bxh5+ Kxh5 49.c6+ Kg6 50.c7 R4f3+ 51.Kg4 Rc3 is the point of giving up his pawn on a3]

48…Rf8 49.Bd1 Rd2 50.Bf3 Rd3 51.Rf4 h4+ 52.Kg4 Rxf4+ 53.Kxf4 Rxa3 54.c6 Rc3 55.Bd5 h3 56.Ke5

This endgame has to be calculated all the way to the end.

56…Rc5! 57.Kd6 Rxd5+ 58.Kxd5 h2 0–1

Why did Navara resign? Because he had seen the forced checkmate: 58…h2 59.c7 both sides queen, but it is not a draw! watch: 59…h1Q+ 60.Kd6 Qb7 61.Kd7 Kf5! 62.Kd8 Kf6 63.Kd7 (63.c8Q Qe7#) 63…Ke5 64.Kd8 Kd6 65.c8Q Qe7# Just a beautiful finish.

Karjakin, Sergey (2753) — Carlsen, Magnus (2845) [B33]
Gashimov Memorial 2019 Shamkir (8.3), 08.04.2019

1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 e5 6.Ndb5 d6 7.Nd5 Nxd5 8.exd5 Ne7

In round 3 (see game above) Magnus used 8…Nb8 against Navara so now he trots out 8…Ne7.

9.c4 Ng6 10.Qa4 Bd7 11.Qb4 Bf5 12.Qa4 Bd7 13.Qb4 Bf5 14.h4 h5 15.Bg5 Qb8 16.Be2

It looks like White is better here. There is pressure against the h5–pawn, making it difficult for Black to castle kingside. Then there is pressure on c7, d6 and e7. This shows the depth of modern opening theory — Magnus’ team has studied the position carefully and figured that White’s pieces can be pushed back and he can get in counterplay.

16…a6 17.Nc3 Qc7 18.g3

He is anticipating Black’s 18…Be7.

18…Be7 19.Be3

See what I mean? If he hadn’t played 18.g3 then Black will now be able to capture the pawn on h4.

19…e4

This is an important move Black — he needs to set-up an outpost for his knight on e5.

20.0–0 0–0

Black reckons that White’s weak light squares around his king and his monster knight on e5 will fully compensate for the h5–pawn.

21.Bxh5 Ne5 22.Be2 Qd7 23.Qa4 Qc8 24.c5

Forcing the capture of Black’s powerful e4–pawn.

24…dxc5

I thought that Black would continue 24…Nf3+ 25.Bxf3 exf3 intending …Bh3–g2 then …Qh3, but this seems to be precisely what Karjakin was going for. After 26.Qf4 Bh3 27.cxd6 Bxd6 28.Qxf3 Bxf1 29.Rxf1 White has a knight and two pawns for his rook and it looks like he has all the play. Black’s light-squared bishop will be heavily missed.

25.Nxe4 c4! 26.Nc3 b5 27.Qd1 b4 28.Na4 Be4

The White king is starting to feel very uncomfortable. The killer …Qh3 is threatened.

29.Qd4

[29.Kh2 Qf5 30.Nb6 Rad8 31.f4 Nd3 32.Nxc4 Rxd5 is looking very dangerous for Karjakin, so he avoids it]

29…Qf5 30.f4 Qg6! 31.Bf2 Nd3 32.h5 Qf5 33.Bg4 Qxg4 34.Qxe4 Bd6! 35.Qg2

The alternatives 35.Kh2 and 35.Qxc4 are both met by 35…Nxf4!

35…Rae8 36.Bd4 Qxh5

Black’s plan is to continue 37…Re2 38.Bf2 Rfe8 followed by capturing twice on f2 and then the killer move …Re8–e2.

37.Qf3 Qg6 38.Kh1 Re4 39.Bf2 Rfe8 0–1

Karjakin resigns rather than see 39…Rfe8 A possible finish would have been: 40.Rad1 Nxf2+ 41.Rxf2 (Or 41.Qxf2 Re2 42.Qf3 Qh6+ with mate.; 41.Qxf2 Re2 42.Qf3 Qh6+) 41…Re3 42.Qg2 Qh5+ unfold over the board.

Even the “Minister of Defense” could not withstand Carlsen’s assault.

Bobby Ang is a founding member of the National Chess Federation of the Philippines (NCFP) and its first Executive Director. A Certified Public Accountant (CPA), he taught accounting in the University of Santo Tomas (UST) for 25 years and is currently Chief Audit Executive of the Equicom Group of Companies.

bobby@cpamd.net

Warriors go for win

May 6, 2019 | 8:10 pm

The Warriors remained supremely confident of their chances heading into Game Four of their semifinal-round series against the Rockets. It didn’t matter that they lost their immediate past match in overtime, and that their rivals limited them to 44.2% shooting en route. As far as they’re concerned, they’re primed to win today, thus claiming the split they need to consider their trip to Houston a success; they’ll be having a commanding lead in the best-of-seven affair, with the next contest providing an opportunity to move on to the next postseason challenge.

To be sure, there is reason to deem the assessment on the mark. For all the proof of competitiveness the Rockets provided in their Game Three victory, they are compelled to keep pressing today. And even if they emerge triumphant, they will simply have done their job in the grand scheme of things. Absent homecourt advantage, they will need to prevail on the road at least once in order to advance past the Warriors. And the task won’t be easy; not for nothing are the latter Finals fixtures over the last four years, and, notwithstanding season-long travails, still the prohibitive favorites to retain the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

To comprehend the near-Sisyphean nature of the Rockets’ endeavor, fans need only consider the Warriors’ own decorum throughout the series to date. They own two wins and very nearly went three for three, and yet they haven’t come close to showing their best selves. In fact, two-time National Basketball Association Most Valuable Player Steph Curry and backcourt partner and fellow All-Star Klay Thompson have been mired in unprecedented shooting slumps. And given the aggressive defenses being thrown at them, it’s anybody’s guess as to when — or if — they’ll be able to find their touch with consistency.

Nonetheless, the series continues to be the Warriors’ to frame. After all, they have the most feared starting lineup in the league, likewise featuring yet another former MVP in Kevin Durant and all-world defenders Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. And so formidable are they that the Rockets require offensive savant James Harden to be sharp from opening tip to final buzzer merely to keep in step. Which, in a nutshell, was why the defending champions shook off their Game Three setback as a blip in the radar, and why they’re keen on finally stamping their class today.

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994.

SM Supermalls and Tribal DDB show us the actual hardest part of being a mom with “It’s Time”

May 6, 2019 | 7:57 am

#SMoments presents “It’s Time”

When is the right time to hold on and let go?

Watch this video and share us your “moving on” stories below. ❤️ #CelebrateMomsDayAtSM

Posted by SM Supermalls on Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Ever since SM Supermalls launched its “SM Moments” video series in 2017, the brand started a tradition that celebrates real stories of its shoppers with insights anyone can relate to.

In partnership with Tribal DDB, SM continues the custom this Mother’s Day with “It’s Time” – a story of a mother who feels she’s being let go by her son as he finally becomes the man and husband she raised him to be. The video was directed by Ian Abaya of Rogue Monkey and released on the brand’s Facebook on May 1.

“Mother’s Day has always been a special season to us because it’s the best time to pay tribute to our loyal SuperMom shoppers who have been celebrating their memorable family moments at SM over the years,” said Jonjon L. San Agustin, SM Supermalls’ senior vice-president for Marketing.

“Through our video, we hope kids will get to appreciate their moms even more, reminisce about their fun childhood, and even possibly be excited on coming up with a surprise as their families celebrate Mom’s Day this May 12,” San Agustin continued.

BusinessWorld Analyst’s Polls

May 6, 2019 | 1:33 am

INFLATION likely slowed in April as food prices continued to drop, analysts said, even as they were divided on the central bank’s next policy move, with some expecting a steady stance despite room to ease and a cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) instead. Read the full story.

RRR could be cut should inflation slow

May 6, 2019 | 1:21 am

A BusinessWorld poll of 10 economists yielded a 3.1% median headline inflation estimate for the month, which if realized will be slower than the 3.3% pace recorded in March and the 4.5% posted in April last year. This will also be the slowest pace seen since December 2017’s 2.9% and will mark the sixth straight month of easing. The median likewise falls within the 2.7-3.5% estimate range given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) last Tuesday.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release official inflation data tomorrow.

Headline inflation averaged 3.8% last quarter, still near the upper end of the government’s 2-4% target. The BSP sees inflation averaging three percent this year.

IHS Markit Asia Pacific Chief Economist Rajiv Biswas, who gave an estimate of 3.1%, said lower food prices — especially for rice — likely caused inflation to slow last month. “An important factor constraining inflation pressures in April has been lower retail rice prices, following the implementation of the rice import liberalization law. This has helped to mitigate the impact of rising retail petrol prices in April, which have been pushed up due to rising world oil prices,” Mr. Biswas said.

Michael L. Ricafort, economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC), noted that rice prices have dropped to as low as P34-35 per kilogram, down by more than P10 from prices in September-October 2018 or when inflation hit a 6.7% nine-month peak. Sugar prices have also declined to P45-50, down by at least P15 from last year, he said.

“Inflation would likely continue to ease in April 2019 as well as in the coming months, largely driven by lower food prices… more than offsetting any uptick in food/agriculture prices due to the expected mild El Niño drought that could last up to August 2019 and some increase in global oil prices at six-month highs recently,” Mr. Ricafort said.

“Other factors that may support the easing inflation trend include the stronger peso exchange rate recently… and slower global economic growth/outlook especially in developed countries that also fundamentally lead to lower global inflationary pressures.”

DIVIDED ON POLICY MOVE
With the anticipated downtrend in inflation, analysts in a separate BusinessWorld poll were divided on the central bank’s policy decision this week, with five out of 10 expecting the BSP to hold fire despite room to ease and the others penciling in a 25-basis-point (bp) cut in key rates.

Meanwhile, five analysts expect the BSP to slash big banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) — currently at 18% — on Thursday, with three predicting a 100-bp cut.

The BSP’s Monetary Board will review policy settings anew on May 9. At its March meeting, the Monetary Board kept rates within the 4.25-5.25% range, with the key rate of 4.75% still at a decade-high after the BSP fired off a series of hikes worth 175 bps last year to rein in inflation expectations after price spikes surged to as high as a nine-month peak of 6.7% in September and October.

DBS Bank economist Masyita Crystallin said the BSP is likely to keep monetary policy settings steady this week and will consider easing only to boost the economy. “Given the steady inflation deceleration, we think BSP might have enough policy space to cut rate should growth disappoint. However, for [this] week’s policy meeting, BSP is likely to stand pat while keeping the powder dry should the economy need more stimulus,” Ms. Crystallin said.

Besides inflation, the PSA will be releasing a host of economic data leading to the first-quarter gross domestic product data on May 9, hours ahead of the MB’s third policy review for 2019.

For Robert Dan J. Roces, economist from Security Bank Corp., the BSP is expected to reduce universal and commercial banks’ RRR first — which he sees happening within in the first half — before it cuts policy rates, especially with liquidity growth continuing to slow in March.

“There is a higher probability of an RRR cut soonest, definitely within H1, after M3 was reported at its slowest growth [in March] at 4.2% and a ‘data-dependent’ BSP is surely considering this given that low liquidity number… Our preliminary view is that RRR will come first and then interest rates,” Mr. Roces said.

Meanwhile, RCBC’s Mr. Ricafort, who sees a 25-bp cut in key rates and/or a reduction in RRR this week, said slower inflation “may support more dovish/accommodative monetary policy that lead to lower interest rate benchmarks.”

IHS Markit’s Mr. Biswas, who is also penciling in a 25-bp rate cut and a 100-bp RRR cut this Thursday, cited a need to ease monetary policy as real interest rates are “extremely high” following last year’s cumulative hikes.

“As a data-driven central bank, we believe the time is ripe for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to begin monetary loosening given prevailing economic conditions and the lagged impact of monetary policy on the real economy,” HSBC Global Research economist Noelan Arbis said in a report.

While expecting the BSP to cut both its key rates and the RRR this meeting, Mr. Arbis said this would a be a departure from the central bank’s recent practice of tweaking the reserve ratio between policy meetings.

“We continue to believe that the order of monetary policy easing matters. We posit that RRR cuts should take precedence over policy rate cuts, given that the effectiveness of interest rate cuts to stimulate growth is limited due to tight liquidity in the banking system… [W]e believe it would be imprudent for the BSP to cut the policy rate without cutting the RRR,” Mr. Arbis added.

Last Friday, BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said in an interview with ABS-CBN News Channel on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank’s annual meeting in Nadi, Fiji that the central bank sees room to “move faster” in easing monetary policy given the sovereign credit rating upgrade the Philippines received from S&P Global Ratings last week.

“I think the (rating upgrade) is another factor that we can now move faster this time,” Mr. Diokno had said.

“It is inevitable that we will have to cut both the reserve requirement ratio and the interest rate,” Mr. Diokno noted. “We’re starting from the previous year’s 175-point increase. That’s not normal.” — R.J.N. Ignacio

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