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OUTLIER: Investors lukewarm on BPI after first-half earnings drop

INVESTORS rebalanced their positions on Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) last week after it released its first-half earnings report.

A total of 13.62 million BPI shares worth P961.40 million were traded from July 20-24, data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed.

Shares in the Ayala-led lender finished P69.50 apiece last Friday, down 1.2% from a week ago. Since the start of the year, the stock has shed 21% off its price.

BPI was among the most actively traded last week after some investors rebalanced their positions after the release of the bank’s first-semester earnings report on July 16, said Wendy B. Estacio, senior equity research analyst at the Philippine National Bank’s research division.

“It appears that the company’s results were generally in line with the market’s expectations,” she said in an e-mail last Friday.

“This is not a surprise at all,” Piper Chaucer E. Tan, client engagement officer and research associate at Philstocks Financial, Inc., said in a separate e-mail.

Mr. Tan said all listed banks would post lower bottom lines this year as they hike their loan-loss provisions to safeguard their assets.

BPI’s net profit dropped by nearly a fourth to P5.29 billion in the second quarter. This brought the lender’s first-half bottom line to P11.68 billion, falling 15% from a year ago.

The lender traced the decline to higher loan loss provision during the first semester amounting P15.01 billion, 4.3 times more than it set aside a year ago, to cover for potential souring debts brought by the coronavirus pandemic.

As of end-June, BPI’s nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.83%.

Although the bank has benign NPLs as of the first semester, “we anticipate BPI to continue building up provisions for the balance of the year anticipating for the worst-case scenario,” Ms. Estacio said.

BPI’s fundamentals “remain strong and by increasing its provision for credit losses is a stamp that they are addressing the problem which we see in the near term,” Mr. Tan said.

Ms. Estacio sees BPI finishing the year with a P21.26-billion net income, while Mr. Tan estimates the lender’s bottom line at P21.23 billion.

For this week, Mr. Tan pegged BPI’s primary and secondary support price levels at P69.50 and P64.10, respectively, while its primary and secondary resistance price levels at P75.40 and P78.80.

“We have an ‘outperform’ rating for BPI despite modest loan yields and elevated provisioning, as we view its current loan mix as relatively safe and stable compared to its peers,” Ms. Estacio said. — MAPS

BSP launches chatbot for customer concerns

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has launched a chatbot as part of its Consumer Assistance Management System to help the public with concerns regarding BSP-supervised financial institutions (BSFIs).

The chatbot named BOB, short for BSP Online Buddy, will streamline the processing of complaints about financial institutions, Memorandum No. M-2020-059 signed by BSP Deputy Governor Chuchi G. Fonacier said.

“BOB will automatically refer the complaint to the concerned BSP-supervised institutions with a case specific reference number that is generated and assigned for each complainant,” the memorandum said.

The chatbot will allow consumers to raise their concerns against financial institutions under the BSP’s watch through chat, Facebook messenger as well as text messaging. Users may communicate in English, Tagalog, and Taglish.

BOB is equipped to automatically generate statistical reports on data on consumer feedback.

BSFIs are expected to respond to consumer concerns within set timelines as indicated in the referral email made by the chatbot’s system. 

This week will be the pilot test phase for the service for BSFIs. It is set to be launched next week.

“All correspondences received from BSFIs will automatically be processed through BOB’s document tracking system which will in turn record and keep an inventory of said correspondences,” the memo said.

Stocks seen rising as investors pick up bargains

By Denise A. Valdez, Reporter

PHILIPPINE SHARES are expected to perform better this week due to bargain hunters after weeks of market decline.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended Friday’s session down 25.75 points or 0.42% to 6,003.26. On a weekly basis, the PSEi fell 1.4% to record its third straight week of decline.

Value turnover last week dropped 25% to an average of P3.84 billion. But net foreign selling declined by 53.7% to an average of P344.71 million.

The rise in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases both locally and abroad was the main drag on market sentiment, online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said.

COVID-19 cases in the Philippines reached 78,412 as of Saturday. Malacañang had previously warned quarantine rules may be tightened again if the tally hits 85,000 by end-July.

Across the world, the virus has sickened 16 million and killed 643,826 as of Sunday, based on data by Johns Hopkins University.

But for the coming week, the market may start recovering as several stock prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said.

“Investors may find current valuations attractive as prices have moved back to levels seen at the beginning of June,” he said in a market note.

“Higher trading volumes will correlate with the market’s rise. We expect to (see) less movement at the beginning of the week but increase toward the end of the week,” Mr. Mangun added.

The State of the Nation Address of President Rodrigo R. Duterte on Monday will also drive market sentiment this week, as it is expected to shed light on several uncertainties regarding the recovery plan of the battered economy.

“Thus far, the investing community has been abreast with daily COVID-19 numbers, and the headlines continue to support expectations for tougher economic times ahead… Clearly, any recovery angle would be the inflection point to grease-up investment faucets, with global economies already reeling from COVID-19’s wrath,” 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“A comprehensive plan on how the economy will recover and the stimulus the government can provide will be at the top of the list for investors,” Mr. Mangun added.

The AAA Equities research head noted that current estimates show the Philippine economy will contract by 15% by end-2020, which means it would shrink back to its size in 2016.

“The government will have to take some drastic measures to keep the economy from declining so much. Failure to address these concerns may draw a lack of confidence from investors,” Mr. Mangun said.

2TradeAsia.com is putting immediate support for the benchmark index within 5,800-5,900 and resistance within 6,100-6,200. Mr. Mangun is setting support within 5,950-6,040 and resistance within 6,400-6,600.

Valentino takes haute couture to the circus in Rome show

ROME — Italian luxury group Valentino had models suspended from swings in flowing white gowns against a pitch-black background in a circus-inspired haute couture show, live-streamed from Rome on Tuesday last week.

After being forced to cancel events, close shops and halt manufacturing during lockdowns triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, high-end fashion houses have largely ditched traditional catwalk shows and replaced them with films, videos, and other formats to showcase their collections.

Valentino’s designer Pierpaolo Piccioli set his “Of Grace and Light” fall/winter 2020-21 couture show in Rome’s famed Cinecitta film studios, working with British photographer Nick Knight who remained in London.

The event was part physical, part digital, with a small media audience attending.

It displayed 15 gowns, all pure white but for one with silver fringes, with cascades of feathers, ruffles, chiffon, and taffeta. Some were four or five meters long, to showcase the painstaking work in creating them. In some cases, up to 4,000 hours of stitching by hand and 350 meters of fabric were needed.

Piccioli told reporters on Zoom that the lockdown had disrupted the availability of made-to-order embroideries and patterns but that his show wanted to send a message of hope and positivity.

“It came out at a tough moment but I believe our job is not to reflect the moment but rather react to it. Couture is made for emotions. It’s not for walking, it’s for dreams,” he said. — Reuters

How PSEi member stocks performed — July 24, 2020

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, July 24, 2020.


China June pork imports jump 128.4% year-on-year

BEIJING (Reuters) – China imported 400,000 tonnes of pork in June, customs data showed on Thursday, up 128.4% from the same month a year earlier, as a months-long buying spree continued as importers try to help plug a domestic shortage.

China’s pork output declined by about a fifth in the first half of 2020 after an epidemic of African swine fever killed millions of pigs in the country last year.

The imports mark the fourth straight month of pork shipments of around 400,000 tonnes, double the volume of earlier records.

January to June pork imports were up 142.7% at 2.12 million tonnes.

Imports of pork including offal in June came to 540,000 tonnes, up 102.5% from a year earlier, bringing total imports for this year to end-June to 2.82 million tonnes, the data also showed.

Customs had earlier this month highlighted the huge meat imports in June.

Intake is expected to fall in coming months, however, after China started testing containers of frozen food for the presence of the coronavirus, slowing the trade.

China has also suspended imports from dozens of overseas suppliers after coronavirus outbreaks among workers.

Beef imports including offal in June were 180,000 tonnes, up 31.2% from a year earlier, said customs, with shipments for first-half 2020 reaching 1.01 million tonnes. Offal made up only a fraction of the combined imports.

Renewables industry pushes for ‘green’ stimulus programs

SUPPORTERS of green energy are urging the government to highlight renewables in its economic recovery plan, saying that such a measure will make the economy more resilient while generating jobs.

Ahead of President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s fourth State of the Nation Address, the Power for People (P4P) Coalition said stimulus measures in the pipeline must “build the Filipinos’ resilience against future ecological and economic crises” while mitigating the impact of the global coronavirus pandemic over the short term.

“We need a green stimulus program which at once provides livelihood and transitions our economies towards a sustainable future,” the group said in a statement over the weekend.

P4P reminded the President of previous policy statements boosting renewables development, which it touted as “key” to the recovery.

“Renewable energy development, especially in the form of microgrids, would provide clean and affordable electricity while creating job opportunities and offering solutions for 100% electrification, and is key to national recovery,” it said.

In March, when the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic, the International Energy Agency told world leaders to make large-scale renewable energy investments the core of their governments’ pandemic responses as “it will bring the twin benefits of stimulating economies and accelerating clean energy transitions.”

Both the country’s solar and energy efficiency industries have sought to participate in the government’s post-pandemic stimulus plan.

The coalition also asked the government to expedite refunds to power users after many bills during the lockdown were disputed as too high, and to expand relief for power consumers due to the disruption to livelihoods caused by the pandemic.

In May, complaints mounted due to high electricity bills, leading legislators to probe the power industry and its regulators. Billing issues were blamed on the application of the advisories issued by the Department of Energy and the Energy Regulatory Commission during the quarantine period.

Power companies were unable to deploy meter readers during the quarantine, and they were allowed to bill according to estimated previous consumption. — Adam J. Ang

GOCC subsidies surge in June, led by NFA, PhilHealth

THE national government released P69.161 billion worth of subsidies to government-owned and -controlled corporations (GOCCs) in June, with 83% going to the National Food Authority (NFA) and Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth).

According to the Bureau of the Treasury, June subsidies rose 882.4% year on year and were up 132.1% compared to May levels.

Some 45% or P31.25 billion went to the National Food Authority, up 1,394% higher than the P2.091 billion it had in the same month last year.

PhilHealth received P26.173 billion, which accounts for 37.8% of the total. It did not receive a subsidy in June 2019.

Other GOCCs that received budget support last month were the National Housing Authority with P7.46 billion, the National Irrigation Administration P2.45 billion, and the Small Business Corp. P500 million.

Other GOCCs that received at least P100 million were the Bases Conversion Development Authority, the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, and the Philippine Heart Center.

Not receiving financial support during the month were the Social Security System, the Philippine Tobacco Administration, the Philippine Fisheries Development Authority, Intercontinental Broadcasting Corporation (IBC-13), the Credit Information Corp., the National Power Corp., the National Electrification Administration and the Local Water Utilities Administration.

In the six months to June, the government released P169.53 billion worth of subsidies to GOCCs.

The GOCC subsidy budget this year was trimmed by P5.1 billion to P191 billion after the government realigned funds to support the pandemic containment effort.

The government subsidizes GOCCs to cover operational expenses not supported by their revenue. — Beatrice M. Laforga

More fiscal measures needed as inflows dwindle

FISCAL measures to support the economy need to compensate for the major drop in foreign exchange inflows as the pandemic drags on, according to the International Institute of Finance (IIF).

“Foreign exchange flows to emerging markets have dried up and countries like the Philippines have to rely on domestic policy to support the recovery,” IIF Deputy Chief Economist Elina Ribakova told BusinessWorld in an e-mail.

Ms. Ribakova said fiscal spending during this crisis needs to be directed towards health, households, and businesses.

“It is important to explore all (and new) tools to address the pandemic. Swift policy response is critical to support business and consumer confidence,” she added.

As lockdowns shut down most economies, foreign direct investment inflows into the Philippines fell 67.9% year on year to $11 million in April, according to the central bank. This total was the lowest since May 2019.

The passage of tax reform measures is expected to encourage investment by defining the playing field they can expect to operate in. The proposed Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises Act, which will immediately bring down corporate income tax to 25% from the current 30% and to 20% by 2027, was left pending in Congress before it adjourned.

ARISE (Accelerated Recovery and Investments Stimulus for the Economy) bill, a P1.3-trillion stimulus package with allotments for mass testing, wage subsidies, and assistance for small businesses, among others, also failed to passed Congress before the break.

On the monetary side, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has slashed key policy rates by 175 basis points (bps) this year, reducing the overnight reverse repurchase, lending, and deposit rates to 2.25%, 2.75%, and 3.75%, respectively.

Reserve requirements for banks have also been cut by a total of 300 bps. The Monetary Board is authorized to reduce by 400 bps this year.

“In the case of the Philippines there is room for further cuts on the margin, but the focus should be on the fiscal policy response,” Ms. Ribakova said. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

PHL, ADB sign $27-million loan to modernize LGUs

THE government and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) signed a $26.5-million (P1.4 billion) loan agreement earlier this month that will improve LGUs’ (local government units) capacity to generate revenue via digitized processes.

In a statement over the weekend, the Department of Finance (DoF) said Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III and ADB Country Director for the Philippines Kelly Bird signed the agreement on July 1.

The loan has a 28-year maturity period, inclusive of a nine-year grace period. It will take effect this month.

The loan will help support the $29.8-billion Local Governance Reform project.

The ADB approved the loan on June 29.

Mr. Dominguez said the program will improve the capacity of LGUs to assess and appraise property values and allow them to boost revenue from real property taxes. This includes using a digital property valuation database.

“This financial assistance from the ADB… will help LGUs close the digital divide in their respective localities as they pursue property valuation and tax reforms to generate more revenues, in step with President Duterte’s goal to modernize Philippine taxation and spell greater fiscal autonomy for our local governments,” he was quoted as saying.

The program will also enhance the administrative and oversight functions of the Bureau of Local Government Finance (BLGF), an arm of the DoF, over the treasury and assessment operations of local governments.

The project also aims to train licensed property appraisers and assessors and raise property valuation methods to international standards.

The implementing agencies of the project are the BLGF; the Bureau of Internal Revenue; the Budget department; the Department of Interior and Local Government; and the Department of Information and Communications Technology. — Beatrice M. Laforga

PHL improves access to water, sanitation, hygiene facilities

THE Philippines made headway in providing adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) facilities in 2019, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) Annual Poverty Indicators Survey (APIS).

The 2019 APIS indicates that 93.7% of 25.310 million families have access to basic-service level handwashing facilities or handwashing facilities on-premises with soap and water last year, up from 76.9% in 2017.

Those with “limited” access, defined as having a handwashing facility on-premises without soap and/or water, fell to 4.2% from 8.4% previously.

The PSA noted the survey’s questions related to WASH were primarily intended to monitor the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG No. 6, which aims to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.”

Around 69.9% of families have a handwashing facility in the form of a fixed facility (sinks or taps) in the dwelling unit in 2019, up from 51.7% in 2017. Meanwhile, those with “mobile objects” such as buckets and fixed facilities in yards and plots account for 13.1% (from 16.1%) and 10.7% of households (from 13.1%), respectively.

Those with no access to handwashing facilities account for 2.8% of all families, down from 13.9% in 2017. In terms of the availability of soap, 82.9% of families have a bar or liquid soap, 43% have detergent soap, while 1% have ”other,” and 0.3% say they use ash, soil, or sand.

In urban areas, 93.9% of families had access to handwashing facilities, compared with 91.8% in rural areas.

Families in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) had the highest share of families with handwashing facilities with limited service and those without such facilities in 2019 at 15.1% and 14.1%, respectively. The share of families with limited services in the region last year rose from 12.4% in 2017, those without handwashing facilities significantly declined from 55.2% previously.

DRINKING WATER
The survey showed that around 96% of 25.310 million families have access to an improved source of drinking water. This compared to around 94% of 24.354 million families in the previous survey.

The top three sources of drinking water were water refilling stations from an improved source, which accounted for 45.2% (up from 37.7%) of the total, followed by piped water into dwellings at 20.4% (from 20.3%), and tube wells or boreholes at 9.7% (from 12%).

Of those families surveyed, 85.2% reported that water was always sufficient. For others, it was either that water was “not available from source” (11.1%), the water source was not “accessible” (1.3%), or that water was “too expensive” (0.4%).

In addition, four in every five families — or 78.8% — did not treat their drinking water to ensure it is safe. This was higher than 76.6% reported previously.

SANITATION
The report surveyed for sanitation facilities, defined by the PSA as those “designed to hygienically separate excreta from human contact.”

In 2019, 81.6% had “basic service-level sanitation” or the use of improved facilities that are not shared with other households, significantly higher than the 73.7% in 2017.

The proportion of families using basic sanitation level services ranged from 32.7% in the BARMM to 90.2% in the Cagayan Valley.

University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) School of Economics Senior Economist Cid L. Terosa called the improvements made in WASH “remarkable” and beyond expectations.

“The availability of handwashing, drinking water, and sanitation facilities is correlated with better health conditions… Given the emphasis on handwashing and personal hygiene because of the pandemic, the results seem to show that the government has laid the groundwork for people to assiduously follow health protocols,” Mr. Terosa said in an e-mail.

“Given these results, the government can focus more on conditions for disease transmission that are not related to water and sanitation facilities,” he added. 

In a separate e-mail,  Asian Institute of Management Economist and Adjunct Faculty, John Paolo R. Rivera said that while these improvements were expected given rising incomes and the implementation of the government’s poverty alleviation programs, much work remains to be done in making these gains sustainable.   

“These improvements, particularly in access to water and sanitation, helped in protecting households against coronavirus to some extent as frequent handwashing and good sanitation are key to preventing the spread of the virus. However, it is necessary but not sufficient,” Mr. Rivera said, noting the pandemic has eroded the improvements in reducing poverty due to losses in jobs and incomes.

“Given the impacts of the pandemic, the poverty situation will worsen which will make it more challenging for households to access not only water and sanitation but also other basic necessities such as food, clothing, housing, healthcare. The social amelioration program can only do so much and requires timely and continuous funding to make it sustainable. Otherwise, any gains we made in the battle against poverty will be eroded,” Mr. Rivera explained.

UA&P’s Mr. Terosa said the Philippines will likely show better results in the WASH indicators in future surveys, provided that the country can recover quickly from the economic slump brought about by the pandemic.

“Although development indicators will clearly worsen this year because of the pandemic, my long-term view as regards water and sanitation infrastructure is positive because the country has seemingly achieved sufficient critical mass,” Mr. Terosa said.

“Also, the improvement of water and sanitation facilities can advance the alleviation of poverty in the future since the creation of a healthy society and nation is a prerequisite for greater labor productivity and better human capital.” — Jobo E. Hernandez

Impairment considerations during COVID-19

(First of two parts)

The unprecedented disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has brought economies to a standstill — shutting down markets, halting international and domestic trade, forcing businesses to close, and displacing workers on a massive scale. Governments are grappling with the situation, struggling to come up with measures to combat the disease and preparing record stimulus programs to help keep their respective economies afloat while balancing this against the need to protect their citizens. This pandemic has reset the way we live, dictating what is considered the new normal, and drastically impacting financial markets around the world.

It is turning swiftly into a critical situation, notably for industries such as travel, hospitality, retail and entertainment. Financial markets are reeling and businesses have had to shut down with revenue reduced to zero, dwindling cash, overdue debt, limited accessible to capital, and assets that have become stale, unusable and unproductive. This begs the question: Is there still value left for businesses and the assets that remain in their balance sheets?

Companies reporting their financial performance and condition will be hard-pressed to report the influence of the pandemic on their businesses and on the value of their long-lived assets, including goodwill. These assets are the bread and butter of most companies, comprising a substantial portion of their asset portfolio. Given the unfolding impact of this crisis, there is a rebuttable presumption that the recoverability of their assets may be put into question.

The first part of our previous article published on July 13, COVID-19 Pandemic and its Accounting Implications, briefly discussed the impairment of non-financial assets. We will now discuss the sets of accounting, disclosure and financial reporting matters related to annual and interim impairment review that companies must consider.

TIMING OF ASSESSMENT
For financial reporting purposes, Philippine Accounting Standard (PAS) 36, Impairment, requires an entity to assess, at the end of each reporting period, whether there is any impairment for an entity’s non-financial assets. Non-financial assets include, among others, property, plant and equipment, intangibles, and goodwill. For goodwill and intangible assets with indefinite useful lives, the standard requires an annual impairment test and a testing of when indicators of impairment exist. The reporting period can be quarterly, semi-annual, annual or any other periods that regulations may require. An entity that is required to prepare an interim report (i.e., listed companies and public companies) needs to assess if there are any indicators of impairment or if there is a need to perform impairment testing on its assets at the end of each interim period and not only at year-end.

EXISTENCE OF IMPAIRMENT INDICATORS
Except for the mandatory annual testing for goodwill and intangible assets with indefinite useful lives, an entity must first determine if there are indicators of impairment (i.e., events or changes in circumstances suggesting that the carrying amount of an asset may no longer be recoverable). The pandemic and its corresponding effects (e.g., the Enhanced Community Quarantine) are likely indicators of impairment but the analysis should go beyond the surface. Determining indicators of impairment requires significant judgment, as well as identification of the events and circumstances that really drive and determine the value of the assets. The source of information can be internal or external. High-level indicators might include changes in macroeconomic conditions, industry and market considerations, cost factors, overall financial performance and other relevant entity-specific events. Specific circumstances can include, among others, the decline in stock and commodity prices, fall of market interest rates, manufacturing plant and shop closures, distribution and supply chain issues, reduced demand or selling prices, and limits to accessing capital. Indicators can vary for each business and type of asset, but the assessment must be robust enough before concluding whether such indicators of impairment are present and thus require impairment testing.

PERVASIVE EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC
As the search for proper intervention against this pandemic continues, the more uncertain the financial market becomes. Measures must be taken to anticipate further impact from this crisis.

In the second part of this article, we continue our discussion by covering how to estimate the recoverable amount of an asset, the recognition and reversal of impairment, and providing detailed disclosure on assumptions used in impairment assessment.

This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.

 

Meynard A. Bonoen is an Assurance Partner of SGV & Co.