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Most congested city eyes limits on car ownership

By Arjay L. Balinbin
Reporter

RICARDO N. ABAÑO, a 25-year-old call center agent from Parañaque City, dreams of driving his own car someday.

“It’s difficult to go to my hometown in Bicol especially during the peak season, when commuters sleep at bus terminals to be able to get a seat,” he said by telephone.

But a proposal to ban car ownership for those without a garage is dissuading him from saving for his dream car. “Maybe I’ll think about it again once I get my own house with its own garage.”

There are several proposals in both Houses of Congress for a Proof of Parking Space Act, which seeks to limit cars on the roads — not to mention those illegally parked on main roads — and ease hideous traffic in the cities.

Metro Manila is the “most congested” city in developing Asia, according to a September study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Rapid growth in car ownership and the demand for road capacity that it generates has given rise to urban congestion in many cities, the multilateral bank said. And while cities experiencing severe congestion may have invested more in road networks, the networks remain far from sufficient to alleviate congestion.

“However, it is well established that boosting road capacity does not ease urban congestion in the long run because it induces more driving,” ADB said.

“This bill is quite basic — if you don’t have parking space, you will not be allowed to register your car,” according to Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian, one of the authors of the bill. “This bill aims to help in the alleviation of our traffic situation.”

If the measure becomes a law, car buyers in Metro Manila must present a notarized affidavit confirming they have parking space when registering their car with the Land Transportation Office (LTO).

But there are also proposals to tighten regulations further by mandating car dealers to ask for a proof of parking space before a car is sold to a buyer.

CAR SALES
“If we are really serious about this problem, we need to start at the point of purchase,” Antonio E. Inton, Jr., a former member of the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board, said in an interview.

“Car dealers must be bound by law to see to it that only those with parking space are sold their cars,” said Mr. Inton, now the president of Lawyers for Commuter Safety and Protection.

This has the car industry worried.

Vicente Jose S. Socco, chairman at GT Capital Auto Dealership Holdings, Inc., argued that a new law is not needed to get illegally parked vehicles off the roads. Local governments only have to designate no-parking areas to decongest the main roads, he said.

“Attacking illegal parking may be a more immediate and more significant solution,” Mr. Socco said. GT Capital Auto sells Toyota vehicles in the Philippines.

The Philippine car industry posted its highest monthly sales in October at 34,397 units, a 3.8% yearly growth, according to the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) and Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA).

Vehicle sales have been growing since February, except for a seasonal dip in August.

Manuel Antonio G. Lisbona, president of PNB Securities, Inc. warned that the measure could dampen car sales, especially to the country’s emerging middle class.

Lower car sales could also mean lower insurance sales and falling demand for petroleum products, he said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

On the other hand, opportunities could emerge from the stricter car ownership requirements. “Owners of vacant lots could be induced to lease out their empty lots as parking areas or construct parking structures on them to maximize profit,” Mr. Lisbona said.

Mr. Inton admitted that the bill could lead to the proliferation of false affidavits and regulators would probably be unable to monitor compliance. The worst a car buyer could face is falsification charges, he pointed out.

“Do you think the LTO will sue a car buyer who made a false statement and who is already using his car? I don’t think so,” Mr. Inton said. It’s important, he added, to bar them from owning a vehicle in the first place.

Still, he admitted that the policy was unlikely to significantly ease Metro Manila’s traffic congestion problem. “I doubt it.”

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc., described the Gatchalian bill as “revolutionary.”

“This has not been done before and will surely bring changes in certain aspects of the car industry,” he said in an e-mail.

“It may affect sales negatively, but may help law-abiding citizens to save money,” he said, adding that this could boost domestic savings and increase investment in the economy.

“With the potential decline in sales, car insurance may also be affected. However, insurance companies and other related financial institutions may find other opportunities aside from volume, but can also raise premiums correspondingly,” Mr. Asuncion said.

The economist thinks that in the long run people can benefit from government efforts to decongest roads through critical and targeted infrastructure projects such as major public transport systems.

“This way, it can also help many commuters who may largely gain from new and efficient means of travel around economic hubs in the country,” he said.

Mr. Abaño, mentioned at the outset, does not mind stricter car ownership rules. “Why is there traffic congestion? Because people don’t follow traffic rules. Maybe requiring parking is just one of the solutions.”

Developers expected to sustain double-digit pre-sales growth this year

PHILIPPINE developers are expected to sustain double-digit growth in pre-sales and profit this year, according to the research arm of Morgan Stanley.

“We forecast industry-wide residential pre-sales to sustain 10% growth in 2020 on tight levels of supply amid a conducive macroeconomic backdrop,” Morgan Stanley Research said in a report on the Philippine property sector titled “2020 Outlook: Another Year of Growth.”

Morgan Stanley Research estimated that pre-sales growth slowed to 10% in 2019, from 22% in 2018.

Based on company data from the largest 10 developers, it said actual pre-sales grew by 8% year on year in the first nine months of 2019.

Unsold inventory has continued to drop from 2016 to September 2019, with sales outpacing launches, it said. Developers are also planning to launch more projects to meet the “still-rising demand.”

“We also see developer earnings, on aggregate, sustaining double-digit growth on revenue recognition from previous years’ home sales and still-growing commercial rents,” Morgan Stanley said.

The Philippine property sector’s growth will be backed by favorable macroeconomic conditions, with gross domestic product (GDP) expected to grow from 5.8% last year to 6% in 2020.

“We think the economic growth recovery and falling interest rates will boost home-buyer sentiment and keep home purchase demand buoyant,” Morgan Stanley said, noting its economists see Philippine GDP growth as one of the fastest in ASEAN from 2019 to 2021.

The central bank is expected to further cut policy rates by as much as 50 basis points (bps) in the first quarter. In 2019, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reduced policy rates by 75 bps.

Meanwhile, Colliers International Philippines Research Manager Joey Roi H. Bondoc said they expect more residential projects to be launched in Metro Manila this year.

“After posting a record-high take-up 57,000 units in 2018, we see full year 2019 take up hovering between 40,000 to 50,000 units due to slower launches. However, we see launches in Metro Manila picking up over the next 12 months,” he said in an e-mail.

With surging land values and lack of developable space in key areas such as the Makati and Ortigas central business districts, developers are pushed to launch residential projects in the fringes to meet demand.

Areas that will account for most of the take-up include the Bay Area, Quezon City, Ortigas Center and fringe areas.

This year, Mr. Bondoc said Colliers is projecting the delivery of 15,610 units in Metro Manila, “outpacing the annual completion of 7,700 units annually in 2012 and 2014 and even higher than the 10,700 units delivered from 2016 to 2018.”

“Colliers encourages developers to constantly look for fringe areas ripe for construction of new condominium projects,” he noted, and added that developers should further look into the north and south areas of Quezon City, fringe of Ortigas Center, Pasig City, and areas in downtown Manila.

POGO EFFECT
Meanwhile, speculative activity in the property market fueled by the growth of the Philippine offshore gaming operator (POGO) industry is likely to continue this year.

“Siyempre risk ’yun. Binabantayan naman ng Bangko Sentral (Of course it is a risk. But it is monitored by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas),” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) lead economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in an interview with BusinessWorld on the sidelines of an event of the Rotary Club of Manila.

Mr. Neri said both the property sector and the POGO industry should be taken into consideration in monetary policies as POGOs continue to expand in the country.

“Looks like it [risks] will continue…That’s why hindi na dapat i-aggravate ng (it should not be aggravated by) additional stimulus. Like for example, that has to be factored in the deliberations of the monetary policies.” he said.

Fitch Ratings last week said the property price surge fueled by the POGO industry could “affect market stability if unchecked.”

“To the extent that the increase in prices has been driven by a boom in the Philippine online gaming operator sector, it may also expose banks and the property industry to greater policy risk,” the rating agency said in a note sent to reporters on Wednesday.

Fitch said condominium prices in Metro Manila surged by an “unsustainable” 34% year-on-year, while the residential property prices jumped by an annual 10%, making it among the strongest growth prints in any major real estate market since 2010.

POGO workers have pushed up demand for residential spaces, particularly in Makati, Alabang, Quezon City, and the so-called Bay Area in Pasay.

Fitch noted a prolonged period of “rapid house price inflation” may cause increased borrowing, especially if the rise in prices is “speculative.”

“Aside from the property company themselves, direct exposure of the company to the POGOs, tinitignan din ng mga bangko ’yan [banks are also checking that]. There should be certain limits to the entire portfolio,” BPI’s Mr. Neri said.

Since 2015, Philippine banks’ real estate exposure remained “broadly stable” at about 20% of total loans.

Latest data from the central bank showed that credit for real estate activities inched up by 19.3% year on year to P1.631 trillion as of November 2019 from P1.354 trillion in the previous year. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang and Luz Wendy T. Noble

How does the Philippines compare with select Asian economies in reducing the share of the working poor?

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Partial operations of Mindanao rail to start within Q2

THE Mindanao Railway Project’s Tagum-Davao segment has been set an operational target date of the second quarter, the Department of Transportation (DoTr) said.

“Partial operations are targeted by the second quarter of 2020 for the Tagum-Davao line,” the DoTr said in its annual report obtained by BusinessWorld last week.

Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade confirmed this in a chance interview on Jan. 8.

Pero marami pa tayong problema d’yan. Siyempre maraming ayaw dumaan ‘yung tren sa bahay nila (there are still many problems with the system, including many people who do not want the train near their homes),” he said.

Asked about the status of the right-of-way acquisition for the project, he said: “Hindi ko masabi ‘yung extent pero inaasikaso na ngayon ‘yan (I can’t give an estimate but we are working on it).”

The Tagum-Davao line is part of the Phase 1 of the 830-kilometer Mindanao Railway Project. The transportation department said earlier that it expects to break ground on the first segment of the railway project in the first quarter this year.

The DoTr added that full operations for the first phase of the project will come by fourth quarter of 2022.

Phase 1 will establish a 74-kilometer at-grade and 26-kilometer elevated (viaduct) commuter railway from Tagum City in Davao del Norte to Digos City in Davao del Sur. It will have eight stations — Tagum, Carmen, Panabo, Mudiang, Davao, Toril, Sta. Cruz, and Digos.

The Tagum-Davao-Digos segment, which will be funded via official development assistance (ODA) provided by China, is the first of the three segments of the P81.686-billion Mindanao Railway Project.

“Once fully operational, travel time between Tagum City to Digos City will be reduced from 3.5 hours to 1.3 hours. Its first phase is designed to accommodate 130,000 passengers daily,” the DoTr said.

The construction of a train system in Mindanao was first considered in the late 1930s after the completion of rail lines in Luzon.

“This builds on the dream of President Rodrigo Duterte to generate development in Mindanao through an efficient rail system that will not only move people throughout the island of Mindanao, but will also generate needed economic growth,” Mr. Tugade was quoted as saying in a statement in December. — Arjay L. Balinbin

Tourism revenue target for 2020 set at P4.454 trillion

THE Department of Tourism has set a 2020 target of P4.454 trillion for tourism revenue, which if realized would exceed the 2019 estimated total by about 9.8%.

According to data obtained by BusinessWorld from the DoT last week, the estimated tourism revenue target for 2020 breaks down into inbound-tourism revenue of P661 billion and domestic-tourism receipts of P3.793 trillion.

Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo-Puyat told reporters last week that in the nine months to September, tourism revenue was up 25% year-on-year.

She also said that the department is aiming to attract 9.2 million international visitors this year.

Ms. Puyat said the visitor targets are driven by more airport development projects which allow tourists to fly direct to their destinations, bypassing Manila’s congested airport.

The 2019 tourist arrivals target was 8.2 million. The DoT has said that the detailed report of visitor arrivals for 2019 will be released this month.

“The Tourism Chief has her eyes set on a record-breaking number of visitor arrivals, already besting the 7.1 million foreign visitors recorded in 2018,” the DoT said in a news release in December last year.

According to Ms. Puyat, tourists from South Korea, China, United States, and Japan are expected to remain the leading sources of visitors in 2020.

“For Japan, last August, tumaas ang tourist arrivals niya (tourism arrivals rose), so we are really courting the Japanese market and still the Korean market,” she added.

She said the DoT is allocating P480 million for the rehabilitation of Baguio City’s Burnham Park this year.

Ms. Puyat and Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade also signed a memorandum of agreement on behalf of the DoT and the Department of Transportation (DoTr) last week to “intensify infrastructure development that will support the development and promotion of tourism circuits across the country.”

Under the agreement, both departments will prioritize airport development programs in support of tourism development areas, monitor the progress of airport projects in such areas, and explore, develop and increase the value proposition of destinations “for sustainable tourism through the productive utilization of airport assets and route development.”

“We are happy that there are more airports opening: Clark, according to Secretary Tugade, will be at the latest July, Legazpi, of course that will help. And of course, when we have the approval of the consortium for the expansion of NAIA (Ninoy Aquino International Airports),” Ms. Puyat also told reporters.

She was referring to the new passenger terminal at Clark as well as the Bicol International airport in Daraga, Albay, in the Legazpi City area.

“We want the tourists not to go via NAIA but to go straight, so we have Mactan, Bohol and of course Clark and Bicol (airports),” she added. — Arjay L. Balinbin

Justice department tightens visa rules for Chinese nationals

THE Department of Justice (DoJ) has tightened the rules on the issuance of visas to arriving Chinese nationals to prevent overstaying, Undersecretary Markk L. Perete said, amid reports of Chinese tourists ending up as illegal workers in the Philippines.

The agency will issue within the week a circular that will take effect immediately, he told reporters.

Mr. Perete said the changes in the visa-upon-arrival facility were made to avoid abuses. “We just put in more restrictions specifically because of the complaints that many are using that facility to obtain employment in the Philippines,” he said.

He also said that the government wants to prevent overstaying.

Mr. Perete said the visa upon arrival is open only to visitors, people on business trips, athletes and delegates to international conferences.

Under the new rules, Chinese nationals must now present their departure ticket form the Philippines. The visa will be valid for 30 days.

Mr. Perete said Chinese nationals coming in as tourists must have booked accommodations for their itinerary and the tour operator must be accredited and provide all the details of their stay.

A visa granted upon a tourist’s arrival cannot be converted into a work visa. It also can’t be extended, he said.

A visa given upon arrival expires once the Chinese national leaves the country, even if the length of stay is fewer than 30 days.

Mr. Perete said some Chinese tourists in the past had ended up working for Philippine offshore gaming operators.

The Philippines started issuing visas to Chinese nationals upon their arrival in 2017, in a bid to attract more tourists and investors from its neighbor.

They were allowed to stay for a month, and may extend this to six months.

The DoJ last year said the Immigration bureau was reviewing the rules on visa upon arrival, citing loopholes in the system.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte has sought closer investment and trade ties with Beijing, including over resources in the disputed South China Sea, since he became president in June 2016. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Fuel marking volumes miss goal

THE government marked 1.1 billion liters of fuel last year, well below initial estimates, as it rolled out the measure billed as cutting down on tax avoidance in the industry.

The initial plan for the program was to mark 15 billion liters of petroleum products.

“[There were] 1.1 billion liters of fuel marked,” Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III told reporters Friday.

Mr. Dominguez said tax authorities recently found “one company in Davao who was (under) P5 per liter. (I said, the fuel is) obviously smuggled or adulterated.”

Fuel is marked after tax is paid on its import or withdrawal from storage facilities. If fuel is found to be unmarked, it is considered prima facie evidence of smuggling or non-compliance with tax rules.

The government expects to generate an additional P10 billion worth of revenue from the BoC this year.

BIR issued revenue memorandum circular no. 2-2020 on Jan. 3, ordering all fuel stations across the country to submit a “sworn declaration statement of inventory as of Dec. 31, 2019” of all their petroleum products by Jan. 15.

“This report shall state whether the inventory has been marked or not to serve as the initial database for monitoring and field testing,” according to the memorandum.

The government will pay for the fuel marking fee of P0.06884 per liter during the first year of implementation.

The measure was authorized under Republic Act No. 10963, or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law, which was implemented in January 2018. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Palay procurement funding in 2020 estimated at P53 billion

THE Department of Agriculture (DA) said various agencies are expected to spend about P53 billion this year to purchase palay, or unmilled rice, in order to prop up farmgate prices and help farmers recover from sharp price drops last year.

“In all, this year we are looking at an initial P53 billion from the public sector composed of the NFA (National Food Authority), DSWD (Department of Social Welfare and Development), provincial LGUs (local government units) and farmers’ federations to buy palay at favorable prices,” Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said in a statement.

Rice prices fell after import restrictions were dropped under the Rice Tariffication Law, which took effect in March. Cheap imported grain pressured prices, reducing trader demand for domestic rice, which is sold by farmers in palay form.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the average price of palay fell 22.3% year-on-year in the first week of December.

“Starting this 2019-2020 dry season, we will buy aggressively from farmers, at P19 per kilo,” Mr. Dar said, citing the support price paid by the NFA as buyer of last resort.

He said that the NFA was instructed to fully utilize its annual P7-billion budget allotted for palay procurement, which should be rolled over at least twice, or up to P14 billion.

The DSWD is also setting aside P31 billion annually for the distribution of NFA rice to beneficiaries of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program or the 4Ps, instead of giving them directly the P600 rice allowance.

Mr. Dar said that provincial governments in the 30 major rice producing centers are also expected to continue their procurement activities, including top producers like Isabela and Nueva Ecija.

“They commit to allot an initial P6 billion for the purpose,” he noted.

Farmers’ federations from Isabela, Cagayan, Pangasinan, and Nueva Ecija also committed to purchase at least P2 billion worth of palay from their members. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

NBI autopsy shows Filipina housemaid was sexually abused

AN AUTOPSY by Philippine investigators showed that a Filipina allegedly killed in the hands of her employer was sexually abused, the Justice department said on Sunday.

“There were clear indications of sexual abuse,” Justice Secretary Menardo I. Guevarra told reporters in a group message, citing the National Bureau of Investigation’s (NBI) autopsy of Filipina housemaid Jeanelyn Villavende.

NBI agents will submit a report to him on Monday, he said.

NBI medico-legal division chief Ricardo Rodaje conducted the autopsy on Jan. 10 in Cotabato, near Ms. Villavende’s residence, Mr. Guevarra said.

The justice secretary ordered the autopsy last week and said government prosecutors would look at potential liabilities of the Filipina worker’s recruiters.

Ms. Villavende was allegedly beaten up, according to preliminary reports, while a certificate of embalmment from Kuwait showed she died from heart and respiratory failure due to injuries on her vascular system.

The Philippine Overseas Employment Administration this month stopped the deployment of Filipino housemaids to Kuwait after Ms. Villavende’s death and other reports of maltreatment.

Mr. Guevarra last week said the department could only provide legal assistance because Kuwaiti authorities have exclusive jurisdiction over the case.

Ms. Villavende’s body arrived in the Philippines on Jan. 8. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Congressman calls for national minimum wage hike

A CONGRESSMAN is pushing for a P650 national minimum wage, citing inflation concerns and inequitable salaries of workers in various regions.

Kabayan Party list Rep. Ron P. Salo said he had filed a bill that calls for a national minimum wage and the abolition of the regional wage board system.

Mr. Salo said the cost of living in the provinces have also gone up, adding that wages in the private sector were getting behind.

Minimum wages in the Philippines follow a two-tiered system and the amount varies per region. Metro Manila enjoys the highest minimum wage in non-agriculture establishments at P537, while the Ilocos region’s minimum wage is P282 for agriculture workers.

The current wage system is determined by a Regional Tripartite Wages and Productivity Board. The law allows wage hikes once a year.

A similar bill was filed in the previous Congress but it did not go beyond the committee level. — Gillian M. Cortez

USDA upgrades PHL 2020 pork output estimate

THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting a 10% decrease in the Philippines pork production for 2020 due to the impact of African Swine Fever (ASF), though it upgraded a previous estimate made in October due to effective disease-containment measures.

“Production is forecast to fall 10% year-over-year due to ASF impacts,” USDA said in its Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report. The agency is projecting volume of 1.475 million MT for 2020, down from 2019’s 1.640 million MT.

It noted that the latest estimate represents a 5% upgrade of its October projection of 1.4 million MT due to “higher-than-expected hog supplies and fewer disease impacts.” Imports projection are projected to decline 14% this year while domestic consumption is expected to fall 5%, to 1.775 million MT.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) said in December that ASF cases are tapering off amid various control measures like movement restrictions which have confined the outbreak to Luzon.

According to the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), pigs culled have totaled 147,334 head as of December 15, of which 18% were infected by the virus and the rest disposed of as a precautionary measure.

The disease was found in 612 barangays in Bulacan, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Tarlac, Rizal, Cavite, Pangasinan, and Metro Manila.

Hog raisers have said that the supply of pork is sufficient, as the culled pigs represent only a small portion of the entire herd, estimated at about 13.01 million head as of October.

ASF has also figured in upgraded estimates for chicken imports in 2020 as consumers avoid pork.

“Imports for 2019 are revised up 10% to 345,000 tons as consumers substitute chicken for pork following ASF outbreaks,” the USDA said. Domestic production is expected to increase 10% year-on-year to 1.6 million MT.

Domestic consumption of chicken is also expected to increase 11% year-on-year to 1.990 million MT. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

Arthaland readies P3-billion green bonds by month’s end

By Denise A. Valdez

ARTHALAND Corp. is targeting the issuance of its P3-billion Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) green bonds before the end of January.

Leonardo T. Po, executive vice-president and treasurer of the listed niche property developer, told reporters last week the company is hoping to receive the permit to sell the bonds from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) soon.

“P6 billion is the total shelf registration. But we’re only activating P2 billion with an option to increase to P3 billion… We’re hoping to get it done by the end of this month,” he said.

Arthaland previously disclosed it plans to use proceeds from the bond issuance for its pipeline of green projects — a requirement by the SEC for companies to offer ASEAN green bonds.

The company has internationally and locally recognized green buildings in its portfolio, such as the Arthaland Century Pacific Tower and Arya Residences in Bonifacio Global City, Taguig.

It is also building the Cebu Exchange, Savya Financial Center in Taguig City and Sevina Park in Laguna, and has plans to launch projects in its properties in Makati City and Cebu Business Park.

Mr. Po said while green bonds are not yet very popular in the Philippines, noting Arthaland is the first non-financial corporation to do such issuance in the country, there is high interest from foreign investors for the climate-focused financing instrument.

“Investing in sustainable financial instruments is more common in developed markets. But it’s only now that it’s coming here… If you look to what’s happening around the world, we see that there is traction for this type of investment,” he said.

Once Arthaland completes the first tranche of its P6-billion shelf registration, Mr. Po said the remaining P3 billion will be offered “as and when we need it.” The bonds will have a three-year validity from the SEC’s approval of the registration.

Arthaland Senior Vice-President for Strategic Funding and Investments Sheryll P. Verano said the cash the company expects to raise from the green bonds is expected to be “good at least for up to 2024.” She noted Arthaland may consider bank financing for other fundraising activities.

Arthaland has a five-year plan until 2024 to expand its development portfolio by five times, increasing its gross floor area to a little over 500,000 square meters from 100,000 square meters.

With its list of projects over the next four years, the company is set to complete P60-billion worth of developments to load its portfolio.

Earnings of Arthaland soared to P647.36 million in the first nine months of 2019 from P75.64 million in the same period in 2018, driven by a 151% growth in its revenues to P1.49 billion.

Its shares at the stock exchange dipped 2 centavos or 2.38% to P0.82 each on Friday.