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Latest US clampdown on China’s chips hits semiconductor toolmakers

Semiconductor chips are seen on a circuit board of a computer in this illustration picture taken on Feb. 25, 2022. — REUTERS

The United States on Monday launched its third crackdown in three years on China’s semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 companies, including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group 002371.SZ, among other moves.

The effort to hobble Beijing’s chipmaking ambitions also hits Chinese chip toolmakers Piotech, ACM Research and SiCarrier Technology with new export restrictions as part of the package, which also takes aim at shipments of advanced memory chips and more chipmaking tools to China.

The move is one of the Biden administration’s last large-scale efforts to stymie China’s ability to access and produce chips that can help advance artificial intelligence for military applications, or otherwise threaten U.S. national security.

It comes just weeks before the swearing-in of Republican President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to retain many of Biden’s tough-on-China measures.

The package includes curbs on China-bound shipments of high bandwidth memory chips, critical for high-end applications like AI training; new curbs on 24 additional chipmaking tools and three software tools; and new export curbs on chipmaking equipment made in countries such as Singapore and Malaysia.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the action aims to prevent “China from advancing its domestic semiconductor manufacturing system, which it will use to support its military modernization.”

Reuters first reported many companies involved and key details of the plan.

The tool controls will likely hurt Lam Research LRCX.O, KLA KLAC.O and Applied Materials AMAT.O, as well as non-U.S. companies like Dutch equipment maker ASM International ASMI.AS.

Chinese companies facing new restrictions include nearly two dozen semiconductor companies, two investment companies and over 100 chipmaking tool makers.

The companies include Swaysure Technology Co, Si’En Qingdao, and Shenzhen Pensun Technology Co, which work with China’s Huawei Technologies. The telecommunications equipment leader has been hobbled by U.S. sanctions and is now at the center of China’s advanced chip production and development.

They will be added to the entity list, which bars U.S. suppliers from shipping to them without first receiving a special license.

Asked about the U.S. curbs, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said such behaviour undermined the international economic trade order and disrupted global supply chains.
China will take measures to safeguard the rights and interests of its firms, he added at a regular press briefing on Monday.

China’s commerce ministry described the U.S. restrictions as a clear example of “economic coercion” and “non-market practices,” according to a statement published on its official website after the new curbs were announced.

China has stepped up its drive to become self-sufficient in the semiconductor sector in recent years, as the U.S. and other countries have restricted exports of the advanced chips and the tools to make them. However, it remains years behind chip industry leaders like Nvidia in AI chips and chip equipment maker ASML in the Netherlands.

The U.S. also is poised to place additional restrictions on Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co. 0981.HK, China’s largest contract chip manufacturer, which was placed on the Entity List in 2020 but with a policy that allowed billions of dollars worth of licenses to ship goods to it to be granted.

For the first time, the U.S. will add three companies that make investments in chips to the entity list. Chinese private equity firm Wise Road Capital, tech firm Wingtech Technology Co  and JAC Capital were added, the department said, because of their role “in aiding China’s government’s efforts to acquire entities with sensitive semiconductor manufacturing capability critical to the defense industrial bases of the United States and its allies with the objective of relocating these entities to China.”

Companies seeking licenses to ship to firms on the Entity List generally get denied.

DUTCH AND JAPANESE EXEMPTED
An aspect of the new package that addresses the foreign direct product rule could hurt some U.S. allies by limiting what their companies can ship to China.

The new rule will expand U.S. powers to curb exports of chipmaking equipment by U.S., Japanese, and Dutch manufacturers made in other parts of the world to certain chip plants in China.
Equipment made in Israel, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan is subject to the rule while Japan and the Netherlands will be exempt.

The expanded foreign direct product rule will apply to 16 companies on the entity list that are seen as the most important to China’s most advanced chipmaking ambitions.

The rule will also lower to zero the amount of U.S. content that determines when certain foreign items are subject to U.S. control. That will allow the U.S. to regulate any item shipped to China from overseas if it contains any U.S. chips.

The new rules are being released after lengthy discussions with Japan and the Netherlands, which, along with the United States, dominate the production of advanced chipmaking equipment.

The Dutch government said it will study the new restrictions, adding that “every country has its own considerations” on national security and export controls.

ASML said on its website that it did not see a material impact on its business, adding that if the Dutch government makes a “similar security assessment,” it could affect exports of some of its chip making tools.

The United States plans to exempt countries that adopt similar controls, sources told Reuters.

Another rule in the package restricts memory used in AI chips that correspond with what is known as “HBM 2” and higher, technology made by South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix and U.S.-based Micron.

Industry sources expect only Samsung Electronics to be affected. Analysts estimate Samsung generates about 30% of its HBM chip sales from China.

The latest rules are the third major package of chip-related export curbs on China adopted under the Biden administration.

In October 2022, the United States published a sweeping set of controls on sale and manufacture of certain high-end chips that was considered to be the biggest shift in its tech policy toward China since the 1990s. — Reuters

Whoscall uncovers 3 investment scam channels targeting OFWs

Whoscall, a global anti-scam application, has identified three primary channels used by investment scammers targeting Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs).

Investment scams are among the most common types of scams, where people are deceived into investing their money.

OFWs are often prime targets, as scammers use social engineering techniques to exploit their vulnerability.

“They (scammers) may promise investment opportunities in stocks, bonds, commodities, currency, or even real estate to their victims,” said Gogolook Philippines Country Head Mel Migriño.

“These scams typically involve enticing victims with promises of high returns on investments, often using fake or misleading information to lure them (victims) in,” she added.

Whoscall, developed by Gogolook, a global leader in TrustTech, aims to protect individuals from online fraud and scams.

As a tool that protects its users against potential online scams, Whoscall has identified three key channels commonly used by scammers to target OFWs.

Messaging Apps

Messaging platforms are often used by scammers to directly communicate with potential victims. They commonly use unknown numbers, often obtained through illegal SIM card sales, to carry out their schemes.

“These scammers, like in other scam cases, exploit the vulnerabilities of OFWs by promising that they won’t need to work abroad if they invest,” said Ms. Migriño.

This strategy helps scammers build personal relationships and gain trust before presenting their fraudulent investment offers.

Social Media

As leading platforms in the digital age, social media has become a key channel for scammers targeting OFWs through investment scams.

Using fake accounts, scammers exploit platforms like Facebook and Instagram to promote fraudulent investment opportunities. They create groups or pages that build a false sense of community and urgency, pressuring OFWs to invest quickly without proper research.

“Because of its accessibility to OFWs, scammers nest on these platforms with convincing ads. Many OFWs are lured into clicking unverified links that lead them to fake investment platforms. Once they invest, the money is gone, and they become victims of these schemes,” Ms. Migriño explained.

Email

While many platforms have entered the market, email remains one of the top tools’ scammers use to execute investment scams.

“One red flag for OFWs to watch out for is an offer that seems too good to be true, like a ‘no-risk’ investment. Scammers often use email to make their schemes appear more formal and convincing,” said Gogolook Philippines’ Country Head.

“Scammers also rely on email to reach OFWs, frequently sending unsolicited messages with promises of lucrative investment opportunities,” she added.

These emails often contain fake testimonials or exaggerated claims to entice recipients into investing.

How to avoid investment scams

One of the best ways OFWs can maintain cyber hygiene is by downloading anti-scam applications like the Whoscall App.

With the app’s URL Scanner feature, users are alerted if the websites they are about to engage with are safe or potentially fraudulent. Protection of personal data and community protection are key thrusts of the Whoscall anti scam application.

“With this, we can help protect our beloved modern heroes from falling victim to investment scams,” said Ms. Migriño.

She also urged OFWs to stay vigilant, especially during the holiday season when generosity is high due to tradition.

“To all Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), we urge you to stay alert against investment scams. Remember: if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Always research and verify before investing your hard-earned money,” she advised.

Illegal use of AI

Ms. Migriño also highlighted the unethical use of artificial intelligence (AI) by scammers to profile potential victims online.

“AI is one of the most powerful tools humans can use to fight online scams,” she said, “but we must remember it’s a double-edged sword — it can be used for good or exploited for harm.”

She added, “With AI, scammers can quickly and easily profile potential victims online. This should remind us to always be mindful of online safety and think carefully about what personal information we share online.”

 


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US retailers aim to cash in on Cyber Monday with steep online discounts

A Black Friday sale sign is displayed outside a makeup store at Roosevelt Field shopping mall in Garden City, New York, U.S., Nov. 24, 2017. — REUTERS

After lackluster spending at U.S. stores on a deals-heavy Black Friday, retailers are pulling out all the stops with steep promotions and discounts on their websites and apps to entice people to buy holiday gifts and other merchandise after the long Thanksgiving weekend.

Retailers have been coaxing cautious U.S. shoppers on Cyber Monday — traditionally America’s biggest internet shopping day — with push notifications, emails and other ads touting heavily discounted cosmetics, electronics, toys, clothing and other products.

With just 23 days before Christmas, the discounts this year have been deeper, with shoppers waiting for promotion-heavy days, experts have said. For instance, Target TGT.N said it was offering 50% off thousands of items including video games, home decor and other technology items with a “two-day Cyber Monday” sale that started on Sunday.

The moves follow a mixed holiday season so far, with muted spending in stores on key shopping days such as Black Friday. Sales at brick-and-mortar stores on Friday grew just 0.7% year over year, according to preliminary estimates by payments processor Mastercard. Meanwhile, data firm Facteus said sales were actually lower.

Online, retailers like Walmart and Amazon have relied on generative AI customer service and search features to make it easier for shoppers to find products on websites and mobile apps.

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, resident Cheyenne Berens, 29, has been using Amazon’s generative AI chatbot Rufus to track prices of baby merchandise and electronics this holiday season. Amazon launched Rufus in February to give customers product recommendations and details based on its entire catalog of merchandise.

“I have found that using Rufus on Amazon has been extremely helpful in determining whether a ‘deal’ is actually a ‘deal’,” Berens said. She’s been tracking the fluctuating prices of a Pack ‘n’ Play portable playpen and waiting for the right time to buy. The price started at $90 before the holidays, briefly rose to $120 and dropped back to $90, she said.

Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce, a cloud-computing company that tracks global shopping data from more than 1.5 billion consumers, said that GenAI tools such as chatbots to answer online shoppers’ basic questions, such as queries about products, helped retailers protect their profit margins despite rising costs.

On Saturday, retailers using GenAI tools for customer service saw a 15% higher purchase rate by users, according to estimates by Salesforce. Schwartz said the higher so-called conversion rate “is a game changer.”

Consumers are expected to spend $13.2 billion to $13.5 billion online on Monday in the United States, according to preliminary estimates from Adobe Inc. That outlay would follow the roughly $10.8 billion Americans spent online on Black Friday, according to Adobe.

Traffic to retail sites from chatbots or shoppers clicking on a link to a website rose 1,800% from Black Friday through the weekend, Adobe said.

With many Americans recently carrying more debt, many are using third-party “buy now, pay later” services, with spending on the services likely to approach $1 billion, according to projections by Adobe, which keeps track of devices that use its software to help power more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites. — Reuters

S&P 500, Nasdaq post record highs as tech-related shares gain

REUTERS

NEW YORK – The Nasdaq and S&P 500 scored record closing highs on Monday, boosted by tech-related shares following the market’s strong November gains, as investors awaited this week’s economic data including the key monthly jobs report on Friday.

The Dow finished lower on the day. Both the Dow and S&P 500 recorded on Friday their biggest monthly percentage gains in a year.

The technology, communication services and consumer discretionary sectors rose about 1% each on Monday, while the rest of the S&P 500 sectors were lower. Tesla shares advanced 3.5%, with Stifel raising its price target on the stock.

“We’re seeing a market that’s in a seasonably strong period just creep higher,” said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey.

“It’s a tough time for people to bail out, but by the same token, I don’t see an explosive finish to the year. There’s just too much uncertainty to where we’re headed. … No one is quite sure what the plan is economically with the new administration.”

Former U.S. President Donald Trump recaptured the White House in last month’s election and his Republican Party swept both houses of Congress, boosting stocks in November.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 128.65 points, or 0.29%, to 44,782.00. The S&P 500  rose 14.77 points, or 0.24%, to 6,047.15 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 185.78 points, or 0.97%, to 19,403.95.

Strategists have cited Trump’s potential plans for tax cuts and deregulation as a positive for stocks, but tariffs would be negative.

Investors also digested comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that he was inclined to cut the benchmark interest rate at the Dec. 17-18 meeting as monetary policy remained restrictive.

Investors have been expecting a quarter-point rate cut in December, but recent inflation data has raised worries that progress may have stalled.

The Fed began reducing rates in September by a half a point, following that with a quarter-point cut in November.

Earlier on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management reported improved U.S. manufacturing activity in November.

Aside from Friday’s hotly anticipated employment report, investors this week also will see private sector job growth data, the ISM’s services report and the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims.

Super Micro Computer surged 28.7% after the artificial intelligence server maker began searching for a new finance chief based on recommendations by a special committee formed to review its accounting practices.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.08-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 406 new highs and 64 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 2,332 stocks rose and 2,060 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.13-to-1 ratio.

Volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 13.64 billion shares, compared with the 14.74 billion full-session average over the last 20 trading days. — Reuters

Forest Lake brings together Undas and Christmas with ‘Undasko 2024’

Memorial park developer Forest Lake recently presented “UNDASKO,” its way of celebrating Undas (All Saints’ and All Souls’ Days) and Pasko (Christmas), in one joyous and heartwarming event. Forest Lake showed that Filipinos may celebrate the shared values of two cherished Filipino holidays and further deepen family bonds in the process.

Forest Lake featured simultaneous Christmas tree lighting rites across all Forest Lake parks, not only creating stunning light displays in Forest Lake’s vast memorial parks but also serving as a beautiful tribute to departed loved ones.

UNDASKO also gave Forest Lake the perfect time to extend its “gifts of gratitude” to lot owners. These came in the form of exclusive promotions and discounts, complimentary services, and branded merchandise. Forest Lake likewise underscored how its unique provisions, such as its Total Memorial Care services, make it easier for families to plan for the future with peace and dignity. In addition, Forest Lake took the opportunity to promote its exclusive deals on memorial lots; its Libing Anywhere interment services; the Libre Burol for families availing of interment services; and QRonicle, the digital storytelling platform for loved ones.

 


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Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of select ASEAN economies, November 2024

PHILIPPINE MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY jumped to a 30-month high in November, as firms anticipate stronger demand in the coming months, a survey by S&P Global showed on Monday.” Read the full story.

DBCC tweaks GDP growth targets

Crowds look for affordable Christmas lanterns and decorations at the Dapitan market in Quezon City, Nov. 30. The government now expects the economy to grow by 6-6.5% this year. -- PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

THE Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Monday trimmed the economic growth target for this year to a range of 6-6.5% but widened the target band to 6-8% for 2025 until 2028, due to “evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman, who chairs the DBCC, said Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) is now projected to grow by 6-6.5% this year, narrower than the previous 6-7% goal.

“Despite domestic challenges, we are optimistic that we can still attain our growth target for the year of 6% to 6.5%. In particular, we expect the Philippine economy to bounce back during the last quarter, given the anticipated increase in holiday spending, continued disaster recovery efforts, low inflation, and a robust labor market,” she said at a briefing after a DBCC meeting on Monday afternoon.

The DBCC’s review of the macroeconomic assumptions came after the Philippine economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 5.2% in the third quarter, which was the slowest since the 4.3% logged in the second quarter of 2023.

In the first nine months, GDP growth averaged 5.8%. To meet the lower end of the government’s revised 6-6.5% target band, the economy would need to grow by 6.5% in the fourth quarter.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the Philippine economy can still “realistically” grow by 6% for the full year.

“The growth assumptions for 2025 to 2028 have been given a wider band of 6% to 8%, reflecting the anticipated impact of structural reforms and evolving domestic and global uncertainties,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

To achieve the targets, she said the government is committed to “accelerating infrastructure investments, enhancing the ease of doing business, and boosting national competitiveness.”

The DBCC chair said they expect the recently signed Republic Act No. 12066 or Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act to spur faster growth and attract more foreign investments.

FISCAL program

“We have maintained our medium-term fiscal targets for 2025 to 2028. This means that we remain determined to reduce the country’s deficit in a more gradual and realistic manner, while also bolstering long-term investments that create more jobs, increase incomes, and decrease poverty incidence,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

The DBCC said it raised the deficit ceiling for 2024 to -5.7% of GDP from -5.6% previously. It kept the deficit ceiling at -5.3% of GDP for 2025, -4.7% for 2026, -4.1% for 2027 and -3.7% for 2028.

For this year, the DBCC raised the revenue outlook to P4.383 trillion in 2024 from P4.27 trillion previously. Revenue targets were kept at P4.644 trillion for 2025, P5.063 trillion for 2026, P5.627 trillion for 2027, and P6.249 trillion for 2028.

“On average, revenue collections are expected to remain at 16.5% of GDP from 2025 to 2028, reaching P6.250 trillion (17% of GDP) by the end of the administration. This means that over the medium term, the government will be collecting a billion more in revenues a day annually,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

She said this will be supported by new measures such as the value-added tax (VAT) on digital services and tax administration reforms centered on digitalization.

At the same time, Ms. Pangandaman said government spending will remain one of the major contributors to growth.

This year’s expenditure program was raised to P5.907 trillion from P5.754 trillion previously.

DBCC expects expenditures to remain at an average of about 21% of the GDP from 2024 until 2028.

The 2025 spending target was maintained to P6.182 trillion; 2026 was set at P6.54 trillion, 2027 to P7.027 trillion, and for 2028 to P7.621 trillion.

“Our fiscal discipline and fluid debt management have recently earned our country a regional on credit rating outlook, found stable to positive from the S&P Global and a series of high rating affirmations from different global credit rating agencies,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

REVISIONS

During its meeting, the DBCC also tweaked the macroeconomic assumptions for inflation, crude oil, foreign exchange rate and exports growth.

Inflation is now projected to average 3.1-3.3% this year, a narrower band from the previous assumption of 3-4%. For 2025 to 2028, inflation assumption is kept at 2-4%.

The assumption for Dubai crude oil prices was trimmed to $78-$81 per barrel this year, from $70-$85 per barrel previously. Crude oil price assumptions were cut to $60-$80 per barrel from $65-$85 per barrel for 2025 to 2028, “with the anticipated improvements in global oil production over the medium term,” the DBCC said.

The DBCC now sees the Philippine peso averaging P57-P57.50 against the US dollar this year, “given sustained remittance growth, recovery in travel services, and growing outsourcing revenues.”

The peso is expected to “broadly stabilize” at P56-P58 per dollar in 2025, and P55-P58 per dollar for 2026 to 2028.

On external trade assumptions, the DBCC lowered the goods export growth to 4% this year from 5% previously, “in line with the observed slowdown in export revenues in recent months as well as the revision in the outlook for the domestic semiconductor industry.”

For 2025 to 2028, exports growth was maintained at 6%.

DBCC kept its assumptions for imports growth at 2% this year, 5% for 2025 and 8% for 2026-2028. — A.R.A.Inosante

Factory activity expands in Nov.

Workers are at an assembly line in a canned goods manufacturing facility. — PHILIPPINE STAR/KJ ROSALES

By Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

PHILIPPINE MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY jumped to a 30-month high in November, as firms anticipate stronger demand in the coming months, a survey by S&P Global showed on Monday.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.8 in November from 52.9 in October. This was the strongest improvement in operating conditions since the 54.1 reading in May 2022.

It also marked the 15th straight consecutive monthly improvement in manufacturing activity in the Philippines.

A PMI reading above 50 means improved operating conditions from the previous month, while a reading below 50 shows deterioration.

“November saw the Filipino manufacturing sector ramping up production in anticipation of greater sales in the coming months,” Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a report.

“Hiring, purchasing activity and post-production inventories were also raised in preparation. New sales recorded further growth, as demand conditions continued to improve.”

The Philippines posted the highest PMI reading among six Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) member countries, followed by Vietnam (50.8) and Thailand (50.2).

Myanmar (49.8), Indonesia (49.6) and Malaysia (49.2) all saw a contraction in PMI in November.

“Last month’s headline improvement was led by a big bounce in the Philippines’ gauge to 53.8 from 52.9, with the archipelago’s stellar outperformance in this survey continuing to mask a lot of the softness across the broader region,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said in an e-mailed statement.

The average PMI among the six Southeast Asian economies stood at 50.8.

“Manufacturers eagerly anticipated a sales boost in the months ahead, prompting a notable ramp-up in production during the latest survey period, with growth accelerating from October,” S&P said.

It noted that the increased production went to supporting the growth of new sales, as demand conditions rose for a 15th straight month.

“While the pace of increase moderated to a three-month low, it remained solid and historically strong. The uptick in output was also attributed by companies to inventory building,” S&P said.

S&P said the inventory of finished goods increased for the first time in four months, with the pace of accumulation the fastest in two years.

Manufacturers also ramped up hiring in November.

“Companies expanded their capacity further as job creation was recorded for a third straight month. The pace of increase was just shy of October’s recent peak,” it said.

S&P said purchasing activity increased in November, but this did not result in a rise in pre-production inventories since companies used the inputs for current production.

“Some supply-side challenges acted as headwinds, as adverse weather conditions resulting from the recent typhoons hitting the country and rising inflationary pressures make a difficult environment for manufacturers,” Ms. Baluch said.

S&P noted the November data showed signs that supply chains are still “strained.” It noted that typhoons led to port congestion and flooding “with average lead times lengthening rapidly and to the most significant degree in over three years.”

In November, S&P said that inflationary pressures “intensified” as rising costs of supplies and raw materials led to a faster increase in expenses — the strongest since February 2023.

Charges for Filipino manufactured goods went up in November, as output charge inflation reaching a 21-month high.

“Nonetheless, firms remained optimistic about future output, with hopes that improved demand trends and the upcoming election year will provide a boost to the sector,” Mr. Baluch said.

S&P noted that manufacturers’ sentiment in November was the highest since early 2023.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said factory activity rose as firms made preparations for the Christmas holiday season.

Mr. Ricafort said further rate cuts and a “benign inflation rate” would be beneficial for the economy, including manufacturing, though with some lag effects.

The Monetary Board could deliver another rate cut either at its December policy review or the meeting after, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said earlier.

Since starting its easing cycle in August, the BSP has cut rates by 50 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 6%.

AMRO cuts Philippine growth outlook amid slowing consumption

Smog covered parts of Metro Manila on Aug. 19. The growth outlook for the Philippines is clouded by external risks. -- PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson Reporter

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH may fall short of the government’s target this year amid a slower-than-expected rise in consumption and investment, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

In its latest Annual Consultation Report, AMRO cut its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the Philippines to 5.8% this year from its 6.1% estimate in October.

This would fall below the government’s revised 6-6.5% growth target for 2024.

AMRO said household spending and private investment were weaker than expected this year due to elevated inflation and high interest rates.

“Household consumption, underpinned by a strong labor market and robust remittances, continued to expand, but at a slower pace due to the lagged impact of high inflation.”

“Private investment is gradually rebounding but has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels, partly due to weak investment sentiment amid high interest rates,” it added.

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that Philippine GDP growth averaged 5.8% in the first nine months of the year.

For 2025, AMRO retained its growth forecast of 6.3% for 2025.

“The pickup in growth is driven by higher government spending as well as an upturn in external demand and strengthening domestic demand,” it said.

The think tank also expects domestic demand to improve moving forward, which would support growth.

“Private consumption is anticipated to grow faster in the rest of the year, supported by strong labor market conditions, lower inflation and robust overseas remittances.”

“With the start of the monetary policy easing cycle, private investment sentiments are expected to improve,” it added.

However, AMRO said the growth outlook faces “heightened geopolitical risks” that may increase the likelihood of supply disruptions and further global economic fragmentation.

The Philippine economy’s growth momentum could also be “derailed by a sharp slowdown in major trading partners in the near term,” it added.

“Over the long term, the country’s potential growth could be constrained by insufficient infrastructure investment, vulnerabilities to climate change, and prolonged scarring effects caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.”

Consumption growth may still be hampered by elevated inflation, it added.

“Philippine growth prospects, particularly private consumption, are clouded by the risk of high food inflation… Higher costs of basic needs would further reduce households’ ability to afford discretionary items and hence constrain household consumption.”

However, AMRO projects headline inflation to average 3.2% this year and the next.

“Inflation is expected to stay broadly within the target range in the second half of 2024 through 2025, benefiting from the continued easing of global commodity prices and government measures,” it said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects inflation to average 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2025.

“While upside risks such as wage increases and local food supply shocks remain, the decline in headline inflation is expected to continue in the second half of 2024 due to lower commodity prices of fuel and food, and tariff cuts on imported rice,” AMRO said.

“Meanwhile, inflationary pressure will likely remain moderate due to a positive output gap and second-round effects, following increases in minimum wages and persistently high inflation expectations.”

With inflation expected to remain within target, AMRO said that there is room for the BSP to continue its rate-cutting cycle.

“As inflation will continue to ease within the target band, there is room to adopt a less restrictive monetary policy stance if current growth trends continue,” it said.

“However, if supply-side risks emerge, a whole-of-government approach should be taken to address inflationary pressures.”

Since August, the central bank has lowered borrowing costs by 50 basis points (bps), bringing the key rate to 6%.

The Monetary Board is set to have its last policy review for the year on Dec. 19.

“As year-to-date inflation has returned to the upper half of the target range, the BSP has room to gradually adjust the policy rate to a moderately restrictive stance,” AMRO said.

“This will lend some support to private investment and allow the BSP to rebuild space for renewed policy rate hikes if inflationary risks were to reemerge.”

Meanwhile, AMRO said that the Philippine government’s fiscal consolidation efforts can still be enhanced.

“The current fiscal-monetary policy mix is appropriate and can be adjusted further to support economic growth while rebuilding policy buffers.”

AMRO expects the fiscal stance from this year to 2025 to be “neutral.”

It projects the fiscal deficit settling at 5.7% of GDP this year and 5.6% of GDP in 2025, driven by “robust revenue collection despite higher expenditure.”

“Moving forward, the fiscal balance is expected to gradually decline to 4.2% of GDP by 2028,” it added.

The latest data from the Treasury showed the budget deficit narrowed to P963.9 billion in the January-October period.

The government has set a deficit ceiling of P1.52 trillion this year, equivalent to 5.7% of economic output. It expects to lower the budget gap to 3.7% of GDP by 2028.

RISING DEBT

Meanwhile, AMRO expects the National Government’s (NG) outstanding debt to rise slightly before easing further.

“Public debt is projected to increase slightly from 60.1% of GDP in 2023 to 60.7% in 2024, due to the government’s sustained funding needs and higher debt servicing costs.”

“However, it is expected to gradually decrease to 57.6% of GDP in 2028, on account of improved fiscal positions and robust economic growth.”

The NG’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 61.3% at the end of September, still above the 60% threshold deemed by multilateral lenders as manageable for developing economies.

The government seeks to bring the ratio down to 60.6% by the end of 2024, and below 60% by 2028.

“While the need for strategic adjustments in medium-term fiscal policy to support the economy is recognized, fiscal consolidation should be accelerated when conditions allow,” AMRO said.

“The government is likely to continue its medium-term fiscal consolidation plan at a slower pace to better support economic growth. However, it would be prudent to quicken the pace of fiscal consolidation if conditions allow, as restoring fiscal space remains critical to build greater resilience to external shocks amid elevated uncertainty.”

AMRO recommended efforts to expedite revenue mobilization and increase efficiency, as well as long-term fiscal reforms for fiscal sustainability.

“Overall financial stability remains sound; at the same time, a more active use of macroprudential toolkits could be considered to mitigate the financial stability risks,” it said.

“Some signs of vulnerabilities have emerged in certain areas, such as the household and property sectors, which warrant close monitoring. Meanwhile, the authorities should strengthen the institutional framework to safeguard financial stability and deepen the bond and repo markets.”

Lola Amour: The Album Concert premieres on Spotify, YouTube

LOLA AMOUR at the press launch of their album concert film (In the photo: trumpet player Tim Cruz, drummer Raffy Perez, keyboardist David Yuhico, guitarist Zoe Gonzales, vocalist Pio Dumayas, bassist Manu Dumayas, trumpet player Angelo Mesina, saxophonist Jeff Abueg).

A DOCUMENTARY film on Filipino band Lola Amour’s latest album concert is now available online, perfect for fans who want to relive the experience or casual listeners who want to see what all the fuss is about.

Lola Amour: The Album Concert, which was filmed live at Circuit Makati’s open concert grounds back in April, is meant to be a sort of “early Christmas present,” according to the band.

Directed by Jed Regala of First Light Studios, the concert film captures the band’s performance and includes exclusive behind-the-scenes moments like candid rehearsal footage and interviews with fans and musical directors leading up to the big event.

“For the concert film, our main product is the live show. We already have full sets online, like the ‘Fallen’ single launch and the PETA Theater live. Every few years we do something like this, and it’s good practice for us to see where we’re going, to see the progression to remind us that we’re still improving,” said Pio Dumayas, Lola Amour’s lead singer and rhythm guitarist, at the press launch of the concert film.

“Of course, we’re also inspired by the fans that we can’t reach. We have lots of fans that wanted to see us live but couldn’t, so this is for them,” he added.

For lead guitarist Zoe Gonzales, the film allowed the members to properly see the crowd. “It’s like proof that it actually happened because when we performed it, it felt so surreal. It was great to see the crowd’s reactions, just very genuine,” he said.

It was also their last concert with ex-bassist Raymond King, whose departure from the band was effective after the live show ended. Their current bassist, Manu Dumayas, explained that the adjustment has been smooth.

“Raymond and I have really different playing styles. There was a point where there was a kind of transitional period, not just in terms of turnover of roles in the band, but actual sound. Seven months have passed and I think we’re where we want to be. We’re all on the same page on the new sound that we want,” he told the press.

The album concert also featured guests like the band’s former keyboardist Martin Kim (who is now based in South Korea), the Filipino hip-hop group PLAYERTWO, and macho dancer internet personality Dante Gulapa.

WHAT’S NEXT

Having just released the concert film online, Lola Amour is gearing up to drop new music in the coming months.

“We went to Malaysia late in July to participate in a songwriting camp organized by Warner Philippines and Warner Australia,” Mr. Dumayas said. “We got along with some of the producers there and came back to Malaysia to finish an album with them. We wrote an album in nine working days.”

Before that is released, fans can look forward to a song that will come out on Jan. 31, 2025, — a collaboration they did with Australian singer-songwriter Oliver Cronin, titled “Maria.”

Lola Amour drummer Raffy Perez said that the technical aspects of their live shows have only just started improving. “Tame Impala, an artist I really love, is really heavy on light usage in concerts. So in a way, we’re kind of in-spired to do the same wherein the synchronized LEDs are like a light show that goes well with each song’s vibe and energy. That’s what I’m excited about,” he told BusinessWorld.

For keyboardist David Yuhico, their songwriting will continue to evolve. “Now we’re like, let’s keep it simple. Let’s do what we’re good at and let people shine in certain areas. Let’s make it whole, not just everyone trying to fill the sound up because they can,” he explained.

Fans can expect Lola Amour to make a name for itself internationally, according to frontman Mr. Dumayas.

“So far, we’ve performed in Singapore and Macau. We love playing here, but we want to look for opportunities to get out in the world more,” he said.

The band members also told BusinessWorld of many other goals — performing in bigger venues like arenas once they have more hit songs, releasing a concert film in cinemas or on platforms like Netflix, and even looking for a Guinness World Record to break during their next live show.

“Everything we do is for the fans. It’s all for them,” Mr. Dumayas said.

Lola Amour: The Album Concert is now available on Spotify and YouTube. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

Megaworld invests P5B in 35th township in CdO

FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: Lourdes T. Gutierrez-Alfonso, president, Megaworld Corp.; Kevin L. Tan, president and chief executive officer, Alliance Global, Inc.; and Monica T. Salomon, president, Global-Estate Resorts, Inc.

MEGAWORLD CORP. is expanding its portfolio to 35 townships as it starts the development of The Upper Central integrated lifestyle community in Cagayan de Oro City.

The 117-hectare township is being developed by Megaworld’s subsidiary Global-Estate Resorts, Inc. (GERI).

“With GERI as the primary developer of The Upper Central, it is allocating an initial P5 billion to develop the entire integrated lifestyle community in the next ten years,” Megaworld said in a stock exchange disclosure on Monday.

The Upper Central is located along J.R. Borja Road in Barangays Gusa and Indahag, overlooking Downtown Cagayan de Oro. The township is 10 to 15 minutes away from the city’s downtown area and less than an hour away from Lagu-indingan International Airport.

“The Upper Central will be a milestone development as it is our 35th township launched on our 35th year in the Philippine real estate industry. As we develop this new township, our vision as a developer remains: to help uplift the lives of the community and also to help propel the local economy through the jobs that we create. We hope to impart this lasting impact to Kagay-anons and the rest of the people of Mindanao,” Megaworld President Lourdes T. Gutierrez-Alfonso said.

Highlighted by views of Macajalar Bay and the Malasag Mountain Range, the township will have residential villages, a pedestrianized commercial and shophouse district, mixed-use developments, and its own town center.

The township will feature a central park, landscaped open spaces, viewing decks, mountain and bike trails, and an adventure park, with sloping terrain reaching up to 245 meters above sea level.

About 40% of the township will be allocated for roads, as well as green and open spaces.

“We are envisioning building a whole new lifestyle district in this higher part of Cagayan de Oro,” GERI President Monica T. Salomon said.

Philippine Statistics Authority data this year showed that Cagayan de Oro is the second richest city outside of Metro Manila in terms of per capita gross domestic product.

UK-based Oxford Economics placed Cagayan de Oro as the third city in the Philippines with the largest urban economy, only behind Manila and Cebu.

“Ever since, we have already set our eyes on Cagayan de Oro City because this is the gateway to many parts of Northern Mindanao. For the past years, our group has been carefully evaluating the concept of development that we want to put in this bustling city. Now is the perfect time to take part in the booming real estate industry of this side of Mindanao,” Megaworld Executive Director Kevin Andrew L. Tan said.

Meanwhile, MREIT, Inc., the real estate investment trust (REIT) arm of Megaworld, is eyeing expansion into Cebu, Bacolod, and Pampanga over the next three years.

“As opportunities arise, the company may choose to diversify into other high-growth geographic areas like Cebu, Bacolod, and Pampanga, as well as other growth areas in the country where the sponsor’s (Megaworld Corp.) townships are located,” MREIT said in a separate regulatory filing on Monday.

According to the company, its diversification plans also include investments in other types of real estate assets such as retail, hospitality, industrial, logistics, warehouse, and other sectors that meet its criteria for “Grade-A, centrally located, stably occupied, and income-generating” properties.

“Properties to be acquired will primarily be Megaworld assets but may also include assets owned by third parties. Acquisitions will be funded either through debt, equity, or a combination of both,” MREIT said.

The company previously said that it aims to have one million square meters of gross leasable area across its portfolio by 2030.

In October, MREIT secured approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission to acquire six office properties from Megaworld.

Valued at P13.15 billion, the properties include Two West Campus, Ten West Campus, and One Le Grand in McKinley West; One Fintech and Two Fintech in Iloilo Business Park; and Davao Finance Center in Davao Park District.

Under the deal, MREIT will issue 926.16 million shares to Megaworld in exchange for the six properties.

On Monday, Megaworld shares rose by 0.49% to P2.05 each, while GERI stocks last traded at 58 centavos on Nov. 27. MREIT shares declined by 1.89% to P13.48 each. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

A teenage otaku’s experience at the Ramon Magsaysay Awards

THE AUTHOR’S SON, Cid (right), with Studio Ghibli’s Yoda Kenichi stands in front of a poster of Studio Ghibli’s head and Ramon Magsaysay Awardee Hayao Miyaki. — BETH SANCHEZ LACSON

By Beth Sanchez Lacson,

THE STUDIO GHIBLI bling they wore in honor of the occasion (clockwise from top): a hand-painted bag of a sleeping Howl from Howl’s Moving Castle, a faded plastic Totoro watch, a No Face pin, and a pair of crocheted red mask earrings from Princess Mononoke. — BETH SANCHEZ LACSON

THE HISTORIC Art Deco building that is the Metropolitan Theater in Ermita, Manila was filling up with dignitaries from across Asia in formal regalia and their proud national attire.

This was our first time to attend the Ramon Magsaysay Awards, the 66th this year, considered as Asia’s equivalent of the Nobel Peace Prize.

On the sidelines, my son, Cid, a 16-year-old otaku (animé or manga fan) sat quietly in giddy anticipation, wearing a faded plastic Totoro watch and a No Face pin. For the occasion, I donned a pair of crocheted red mask earrings from Princess Mononoke and carried a hand-painted bag of a sleeping Howl from Howl’s Moving Castle. With our paraphernalia, we waited with bated breath for Studio Ghibli’s Hayao Miyaki to make a rare public appearance.

RAMON MAGSAYSAY AWARDS

The Ramon Magsaysay Award — named after the 7th President of the Philippines who perished in a plane crash in 1957 — was created to give recognition to the ideals he espoused and the courageous service that he rendered for the Filipino people.

President Magsaysay embodied greatness of spirit and believed that his fellow humans were entitled to live in freedom and happiness. Injustice incurred his wrath and he worked tirelessly to build a nation that thrived with honor and peace.

The reason for our being at the awards ceremony was that among the 2024 Awardees was animator and filmmaker Miyazaki Hayao of Japan who co-founded Studio Ghibli in 1983.

When the Ramon Magsaysay Foundation posted an announcement on social media calling for questions for Mr. Miyazaki, my son didn’t need to be asked twice. Incidentally, they were holding an art exhibit in his school inspired by Studio Ghibli films and he took great pains to send those photos and videos along with his questions to the foundation.

I fail to recall how long I have been a fan of Studio Ghibli films but my obsession with everything Studio Ghibli seemed to rub off on my son.

Studio Ghibli has produced many memorable animated feature films including the 1988 classic, My Neighbor Totoro. Mr. Miyazaki’s works are primarily aimed at children, one of the most challenging audiences. What is unique about his films is that they don’t oversimplify plots. He tackles complicated issues head on — whether these are about climate change, the pain of loss and grief, the role of women in society, and the discovery of self — because he has complete faith in the youth and their ability to comprehend such issues.

Princess Mononoke and Nausicaä of the Valley of the Wind teach children about protecting the environment and how human actions can greatly affect nature and the creatures on planet Earth.

Grave of the Fireflies and Howl’s Moving Castle are snapshots of the harrowing consequences of war. Castle in the Sky and The Wind Rises depict the potential for technology as a tool of progress or destruction. Kiki’s Delivery Service is a story of self-discovery and acceptance. Howl’s Moving Castle and Whisper of the Heart both tackle the innocence of love. And My Neighbor Totoro, Spirited Away, Ponyo, and Arrietty focus on purity, curiosity, and the unknown.

“Besides the mesmerizing animation and high quality that Studio Ghibli films have, I was mainly focusing on and appreciating the stories that they were trying to tell,” Cid said.

THE ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The words of the Ramon Magsaysay Foundation resonate: “In electing Miyazaki Hayao to receive the 2024 Ramon Magsaysay Award, the board of trustees hails a gifted and exemplary artist who has demonstrated, in his work and outlook a lifelong commitment to the use of art, especially animation, to illuminate the human condition, especially lauding his devotion to children as torchbearers of the imagination.”

As the parade started, we craned our necks to see if he was there — his signature white hair and beard and thick, black rimmed glasses. But he was nowhere in sight.

There was a spark of wishful thinking on my part, that maybe, he would make a surprise appearance that night. I didn’t want it to be all for naught for us.

Finally, his name was called but somebody else stood up.

“My name is Yoda Kenichi, Vice-President for Events and Exhibitions for Studio Ghibli. It is my honor to represent our co-founder Miyazaki Hayao, at the 66th Ramon Magsaysay Awards. Please allow me to read a letter that Miyazaki-san has written for this occasion.”

(Letter from Hayao Miyazaki)

“I first heard of the Ramon Magsaysay Award when I was a child.
“I think it was in the school playground, and my teacher told me that such an award had been created.
“The name made an impression, so it has remained in my mind ever since.
“Being honored with this award made me think of the Philippines once again.
“In 2016, the former Emperor and Empress visited Manila, which was the setting of urban warfare during World War II, to pay their respects to thousands who have lost their lives.
“The Japanese did a lot of terrible things back then.
“They killed many civilians.
“The Japanese people must not forget this.
“It will always remain.
“With such history, I solemnly accept the Ramon Magsaysay Award from the Philippines.”

(End of Letter)

The tears came unbidden before I realized what was happening.

My son was looking at me in a funny way, wondering what was wrong. This acknowledgment and profound humility were the reasons why I thought he was chosen as an awardee — to become a bridge to a broader under-standing of peace in modern times, through sensible and sensitive storytelling, even if a lot of the past seemed forgotten.

At least he has not forgotten.

And for my son who has learned to love all that is Studio Ghibli, this moment will always be part of a core memory.