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Central bank considering amendments to Agri-Agra Law

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is looking to amend the Agri-Agra Reform Credit Act of 2009 (Agri-Agra Law) in order to better support the agriculture sector, with banks still resisting the law’s lending quotas, preferring instead to pay penalties for non-compliance.

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said the central bank is backing amendments that widen the range of eligible rural beneficiaries and agricultural activities that can be lent in order to meet the quotas.

The central bank said loans to the agriculture and fisheries sector as a proportion of banks’ loan portfolios declined to 2.45% at the end of May, from 12.27% in 2010.

“Since the enactment of the Agri-Agra Law in 2009, the BSP has been able to collect from banks a total of P10.3 billion in penalties for under or non-compliance with the mandated agri-agra credit,” Mr. Diokno said in a briefing Thursday.

Mr. Diokno said banks would rather pay the 0.5% penalty instead of granting credit to the agriculture and agrarian reform sectors.

“Banks justify this on the basis of the perceived high risk, high cost of lending to the agricultural and agrarian reform sector,” he said.

The BSP said it will back the creation of an agri-business management capacity and institution-building fund to improve the productivity, income potential and the bankability of farmers and their enterprises and households.

Under the Agri-Agra law, 25% of banks’ total loanable funds should be extended to the agriculture and agrarian reform sector. However, in 2019, compliance with the agriculture loan quota was 10.8%, while agrarian reform lending was 1.09%, both significantly below quota.

The agriculture sector accounted for about 9.2% of gross domestic product in 2019, with gross value added at more than P1.78 trillion. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

PHL rice supply ‘sufficient’ even with return to stricter lockdown

THE rice supply was deemed sufficient for the rest of the year despite the return of Metro Manila and nearby provinces to a stricter form of lockdown, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said.

Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said that as of August, the rice inventory was good for about 53 days’ consumption, with more on the way from the late-September harvest.

Mr. Dar discounted potential disruptive factors like the Chinese floods, which could put pressure on international supply.

“Our second quarter palay production of 4.125 million metric tons (MT) is a testament that reforms being instituted under the Rice Tariffication Law are starting to bear fruit,” Mr. Dar said.

“Barring adverse typhoons and natural disasters in the remaining months of the year, we expect a record palay output this year of 20.34 million MT, which is 8% higher than the 2019 production,” he added.

Mr. Dar said that the DA evaluated various supply scenarios to arrive at its estimate for the rice inventory at year’s end.

“All scenarios show comfortable levels of rice supply by the end of the year, which at best would be good for 98 days, and at worst, 90 days,” Mr. Dar said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Toll board approves rate structure for CALAX Laguna interchanges

MPCALA Holdings, Inc., a subsidiary of Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. (MPTC), said Thursday that the Toll Regulatory Board (TRB) approved the tolls for the Laguna interchanges of the Cavite-Laguna Expressway (CALAX).

MPCALA Holdings hopes to open the Laguna Boulevard Interchange and the Laguna Technopark Interchange in Biñan this month.

In a statement, the company said the TRB recently approved the fees, inclusive of value added tax, of P47 (class 1 or private vehicles), P95 (class 2 or medium-sized trucks and buses), and P143 (class 3 or large trucks, trailers) for Santa Rosa-Tagaytay Greenfield (Mamplasan) Exit. Classes 1, 2, and 3 vehicles will have to pay P30, P60, and P91, respectively, if they enter from Laguna Boulevard.

Classes 1, 2, and 3 vehicles will pay P32, P65, and P98, respectively, for Santa-Rosa-Tagaytay to Laguna Technopark Exit.

Fees for Laguna Boulevard to Laguna Technopark Exit are P15, P30, and P45.

Fees for Santa Rosa-Tagaytay to Laguna Boulevard Eastbound Exit are P17, P34, and P52.

The fees set for Greenfield (Mamplasan) to Laguna Boulevard Westbound Exit were P30, P60, and P91.

Laguna Technopark to Laguna Boulevard Westbound Exit users will pay P15, P30, and P45 for classes 1, 2, and 3 vehicles, respectively.

Greenfield (Mamplasan) to Sta. Rosa-Tagaytay Exit fees are P47, P95, and P143.

Classes 1, 2, and 3 vehicles from Laguna Technopark to Santa Rosa-Tagaytay Road Exit will pay P32, P65, and P98, respectively.

Motorists will pay P17, P34, and P52 for Laguna Boulevard to Santa Rosa-Tagaytay Road Exit.

“The whole stretch of CALAX has nine interchanges in the following locations: Kawit, Governor’s Drive, Aguinaldo Highway, Silang, Santa Rosa-Tagaytay, Laguna Boulevard, Laguna Technopark, and a Toll Barrier before South Luzon Expressway (SLEx),” MPCALA Holdings said.

Once fully operational, the P35.43-billion project is expected to cut travel time between CAVITEx and SLEx to 45 minutes from the current 2.5 hours.

MPTC is the tollways unit of Metro Pacific Investments Corp., one of three key Philippine units of Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT, Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Arjay L. Balinbin

NEA approves P343.45 million worth of loans to power cooperatives

LOANS granted to electric cooperatives in the seven months to July amounted to P343.45 million, according to the National Electrification Administration (NEA).

The NEA citing data from its Accounts Management and Guarantee Department, said that around P240.37 million in loans went to bankroll electrification projects and working capital requirements for nine electrical cooperatives, while P103.08 million were issued as calamity loans.

Of the electrification loans, NEA said P167.96 million went to capital expenditure projects of eight electric cooperatives, while P33.64 million went to the Occidental Mindoro Electric Cooperative, Inc. as a working capital loan; P38.76 million went to to Misamis Oriental I Rural Electric Service Cooperative, Inc. for the acquisition of modular generator sets.

NEA said the remaining P103.08 million was allocated to calamity loans for 12 electric cooperatives in Bicol, MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan), and the Visayas.

The loans were used to rehabilitate power distribution facilities damaged during Typhoons Ursula and Tisoy.

“The calamity loans have a maximum 10-year repayment term, with a grace period of one year and an interest rate of 3.25% per annum,” the NEA said.

Meanwhile, NEA Administrator Edgardo R. Masongsong issued a memorandum allowing a 30-day extension to the payment deadline for loan amortizations of the  cooperatives owed for the second quarter.

“Assuming that there will be no collections on loan amortization from the electric cooperatives until December of this year, this will result in no loan releases from the NEA to the electric cooperatives as well,” Mr. Masongsong said.

NEA is a government-owned and controlled corporation under the Department of Energy. The agency offers loans to qualified electric cooperatives such as regular, calamity, and concessional loans, among others. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Russia’s coronavirus vaccine won’t arrive until May — palace

THE PHILIPPINES may have to wait for almost a year before getting Russia’s vaccine against the coronavirus, the presidential palace said on Thursday.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte, who volunteered to get a shot of the Sputnik V vaccine, may have to wait until May next year, if the drug is proven to be safe and effective, his Spokesman Harry L. Roque said at an online news briefing.

“It’s not a metaphorical statement, he’s willing to undergo it,” he added.

The Philippines and Russia seek to run phase 3 clinical trials of the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) vaccine from October to March, Mr. Roque said, adding that the local Food and Drug Administration might approve the drug by April.

The clinical trials will involve as many as 3,000 volunteer patients.

“Russia is open to transfer technology for local manufacturing of the vaccine,” Mr. Roque said in mixed English and Filipino. “They want other countries to help in manufacturing their vaccine.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday said his country had developed the first vaccine for the COVID-19 virus.

Critics have questioned the safety of the experimental vaccine since vaccines take years to develop.

The Department of Health reported 4,002 more coronavirus infections on Thursday, bringing the total to 147,526.

The death toll rose to 2,426 after 23 more patients died, while recoveries increased by 1,403 to 70,387, it said in a bulletin.

There were 74,713 active cases, 91% of which were mild, 7% did not show symptoms and less that 1% each were severe and critical, the agency said.

Of the new cases, 2,445 came from Metro Manila, 319 from Laguna, 212 from Cebu, 142 from Rizal, and 101 from Cavite, it added.

The 75-year-old Mr. Duterte on Monday said Russia had offered to give the Philippines COVID-19 vaccines, adding that he would volunteer to get injected in public.

He thanked Russia for supposedly offering to send the vaccines to the Philippines for free. He claimed the Russian vaccines could arrive by September or October.

The Department of Health (DoH) on Monday said it had allotted P2.4 billion for COVID-19 vaccines in its budget for 2021 and this could change depending on the price.

China is the other country Mr. Duterte mentioned in the past that had pledged to prioritize the Philippines for coronavirus vaccine supplies once they develop one.

Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine was developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology.

Mr. Roque earlier said the Russian vaccine must first be approved by local regulators even if it passes in Russia. Local Universities will also conduct clinical studies to check if the vaccine is harmless, he added.

The DoH on Wednesday said four Philippines hospitals would also join the trial for the Japanese flu drug Avigan as treatment for the coronavirus. 

These are the Philippine General Hospital, Sta. Ana Hospital, Dr. Jose N. Rodriguez Memorial Hospital and Quirino Memorial and Medical Center.

The trials would run for nine months and the government had taken delivery of the drugs.

The trial for the drug, which will start on Aug. 17, will be given to a hundred patients aged 18 to 74.

Patients who will participate must agree with the use of contraceptives and have no kidney and heart problems, among other requirements.

Japan in April said it would send the drug manufactured by Fujifilm Toyama Chemical Co., Ltd. to 38 countries, including the Philippines after clinical trials.

Mr. Duterte put back Metro Manila and nearby provinces under a strict lockdown until Aug. 18 after a fresh surge in infections. — Gillian M. Cortez and Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Cabinet secretaries deputized to manage COVID-19 response

AN inter-agency task force against the coronavirus has deputized Cabinet officials to oversee the pandemic situation in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.

The task force issued the order “to further operationalize the national government-enabled, local government-led and people-centered response” against the virus, Presidential Spokesman Harry L. Roque said on Thursday.

The Cabinet officials will seek to strengthen National Government support for cities and municipalities nationwide in fighting the pandemic, he said.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte locked down the entire Luzon island in mid-March, suspending work, classes and public transportation to contain the pandemic.

He extended the strict quarantine for the island twice and thrice for Metro Manila. Mr. Duterte put back the capital region, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Bulacan provinces under a strict lockdown until Aug. 18 after a fresh surge in infections. — Gillian M. Cortez

Immigration workers face charges for Wirecard falsification

STATE AGENTS sued two immigration officers at the Justice department for falsifying travel records of former Wirecard AG chief Jan Marsalek, who has been a fugitive from justice since June after he was blamed for the collapse of the German payment processor.

In a statement, the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) said the immigration officers assigned at the international airports in Cebu and Metro Manila are also facing charges of violating the code of conduct for public officials.

Mr. Marsalek was reported to have arrived in the country in June and left Cebu airport the next day. But Justice Secretary Menardo I. Guevarra had said his travel record had been falsified.

Wirecard’s missing 1.9 billion euros ($2.1 billion) was supposedly placed in two Philippine banks, but BDO Unibank, Inc. and the Bank of the Philippine Islands denied this. The Philippine central bank has said the money had not entered the country’s financial system.

“The entries on the Bureau of Immigration records for June 23 and 24, 2020, both spurious, appear to be mere diversionary in order to divert the attention of the authorities in Europe to focus its attention in the Philippines and not in their jurisdiction,” the NBI said in its complaint.

Officer-in-charge Eric B. Distor said the investigation showed that Mr. Marsalek’s most recent travel record was his arrival in the Metro Manila airport on June 23 processed by one of the immigration officers. His departure from the Cebu airport was processed by the other officer.

The NBI said the records were spurious because passengers had not been allowed to enter the country at that time amid a global coronavirus pandemic. The immigration official who supposedly processed his papers was also not on duty at that time, it said.

Mr. Marsalek’s departure from Cebu was also faked because footage at the airport showed that the immigration counters had been unmanned after the supposed flight.

It was also impossible for him to be in Cebu the day after he arrived, and the other immigration officer was also not on duty at that time, it said.

The NBI said records showed that Mr. Marsalek arrived in the Philippines March 3 and left two days later. It was unlikely that he was still in the country, it said.

Mr. Guevarra in June ordered state agents to probe people allegedly involved in the missing fund from Wirecard.

He confirmed on Thursday that Christopher Bauer, the owner of key Wirecard partner PayEasy Solutions, died in a hospital in Parañaque City near the capital on July 27 due to “natural causes.” — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Alternative fumes to running on empty

The latest twist in our pandemic drama is the President’s admission that MECQ over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna would be difficult to extend, “due to lack of funds to help those whose movements are limited by the lockdown.”

Wala ng pera. (There’s no more money.)

By now it is clear that the lockdown was absolutely necessary in the Philippines. Our healthcare facilities needed the reprieve. The weakness of our public health system cannot be blamed on the Duterte Administration alone. Previous governments were also remiss.

Vietnam, which fought many colonial wars and became independent only 45 years ago, is many years ahead of us. Health has been their focus all these years.

We, however, were caught flat-footed by a virus we dismissed in half jest. We prioritized diplomacy and friendship, sacrificing people’s lives and livelihood. We failed to think through testing, contact tracing, quarantine, and treatment. Execution is dismal. Communication is a tragedy.

Should the President extend the MECQ, as the virus refuses to stand down, money will have to be raised to support the impoverished masa (masses); to provide wage support for the disemployed, and even to keep small business alive.

The problem is we are running out of funds. The President has indicated, we are running on empty.

This is discouraging since it was only recently that bigger quarantine facilities were set up to contain infection. While the 525-bed facility in Parañaque was funded by the Razon group, Meralco and Maynilad, public funds are still needed to man the facility with frontliners, medical supplies and equipment.

Funds are likewise needed for big facilities being established to service Metro Manila, Bulacan, and CALABARZON with a total capacity of 3,000 beds. The Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) has also just completed 300 quarantine facilities all over the country plus 95 more with a total bed capacity of 13,000.

It is also only recently that the government has found its bearing on contact tracing. Some local government units are trying their luck in the grassroots. On the national level, however, the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) will launch its training program for contact tracing not this month, but in September. Done with the Department of Health (DoH) and health industry experts, these training sessions will blend on and off-line modules for at least 15 days. Funds will again be very badly needed to expand TESDA’s reach and ensure that tracers do not rely on hearsay and police shakedowns.

What these late developments are telling us is that we are just beginning to fight back in a fight that is now into its seventh month. It is also certain to be very long. Perhaps 15 rather than the usual 12 rounds.

Senator Manny Pacquiao should be the first one to protest. It is as if we asked for a timeout in the middle of boxing, to do shadow boxing, train with weights, and exercise for stamina. In the meantime, the Department of Labor and Employment (DoLE) reports that in the first nine days of August alone, about a thousand business firms have laid off workers. Some 944 establishments have downsized or completely folded-up, letting go of more than 16,130 workers.

DoLE also reports that beginning this year, 157,705 workers from 7,759 business firms have lost their jobs. Official statistics indicate an April 2020 unemployment rate of nearly 18% or 7.3 million unemployed. Sadly, this figure will not slim down. By mid-September, the broadsheets reported that 100 LRT-1 personnel will be laid off. Poverty incidence is bound to climb.  Certainly, the President would need more funding to support our other wise productive workers.

With billions of funds missing from the public health insurance agency, how does one explain to starving workers and their families that they cannot be given cash transfers of a few thousand pesos?

With this pandemic promising to persist and be long drawn out, we will need to spend more, first on health, and second, for keeping business and jobs for our people. For instance, we need to spend more to bring home our affected overseas workers and find alternative jobs for them. This is a tall order.

It is good that banks are lending more to small businesses as alternative compliance with RRR. However, it would be a win-win if without being mandated to do so, banks could allow accommodative monetary policy to filter down to their borrowers in terms of lower lending rates. It is true that with higher loan loss provisioning, banks are now also challenged in their profitability. But, fortunately banks are not showing negative net income.

What is at stake here is household and business survival.

It is good to remind ourselves that this is a whole-of-nation problem. It thus requires a whole-of-nation solution. As Scripture reminds us, we have to carry each other’s burden. This is how to fulfill the law of Christ.

In the beginning of the year, we faced the pandemic from a position of strength. We had 21 years of sustained economic growth supported by game-changing policy and structural reforms. Even after the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crises, our economy remained robust.

But because of the pandemic, our risk buffers are now being eroded.

We have to spend more. But since new or higher taxes cannot be imposed during a pandemic, higher spending means greater borrowing.

Fitch was the first to comment on a possible diminishing fiscal space. It raised the issue of the general government GDP to debt ratio of 34% rising to around 48% this year. This trajectory is worrisome even as the level is expected to still fall left of the peer median of nearly 52%.

Fitch admitted that fiscal space remains to accommodate more deterioration in public finance. Nonetheless it downgraded its original forecast of -4% growth for 2020. Fitch is worried about the Philippines’ “difficulty in containing the virus,” which could dissipate its so-called risk buffers. As a result, Fitch kept the country’s investment grade credit rating at triple B. But it also revised its positive outlook to stable, noting that risks are on the upside.

Earlier, Moody’s also put great emphasis on debt metrics as potential reasons for a downgrade. Moody’s expects the general government debt to GDP at a slightly lower ratio of 45%.

As we suggested in the past, we could minimize borrowings while keeping public spending in broad terms through as much realignment as we can squeeze from the budget. Our economic managers should demonstrate to the President and Congress the need to temper spending “whatever it takes” with fiscal responsibility. NEDA Secretary Karl Chua suggests that we must learn how to dance with the virus. Strict quarantines may have to be reimposed from time to time depending on the upsurge of the coronavirus. Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez calls for “behavior patterns and appropriate technology that will allow us to operate effectively and efficiently and safely.”

Otherwise, we must find a truly creative and collective way to run on fumes as our gas tank precariously empties.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former Deputy Governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Breakdowns

As the number of the infected swells and threatens to overwhelm the healthcare system, the country’s medical frontliners have wisely called for the reassessment and reform of what passes for the Duterte regime’s anti-COVID-19 strategy. But they did not include in their proposals the need to address the possibility that we may also be in the middle of a mental health crisis that will quite possibly have a long-term impact on Philippine society. The physical and mental well-being of its people is after all among a nation’s chief assets, since only mentally healthy citizens can function as productive and responsible members of the community.

As entire economic systems break down, and recessions and even a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s become more and more likely, not only unemployment and want have distressed millions in the heels of the COVID-19 crisis. Since it declared the contagion a global pandemic last March, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been warning the countries afflicted and the world at large that among its consequences will be a spike in mental health problems. The problems referred to include anxiety disorders, panic attacks, psychoses, clinical depression and even suicidal tendencies.

In its report last May on the extent of the COVID-19 problem and its prognosis for the future, the WHO not only warned that the disease “may not go away,” its Mental Health Department also noted during its virtual conference with health ministers in Geneva, Switzerland that COVID-19 is leading to a global mental health crisis that “has to be addressed urgently.”

The Department Director said that “the isolation, the fear, the uncertainty, the economic turmoil” that are among the consequences of the global pandemic “all cause psychological stress.” As a result, the world should expect an increase in mental illness, especially among children, young people and health workers.

The unique characteristics of the disease, and hence the steps being taken to combat it, make it particularly conducive to mental distress. The quarantine protocols needed to control it, among them working, teaching and learning from home, limiting physical mobility and avoiding crowds, have made the isolation that leads to loneliness, fear, despair and hopelessness the primary condition of existence for millions of people all over the planet. Because COVID-19 can be transmitted primarily through human-to-human contact, even if a vaccine were found, the fundamental preventive means of avoiding the company of others — at times including not only friends, neighbors, co-workers and associates, but even members of one’s immediate family — will continue to be among the preferred approaches to controlling the contagion, as contrary to the basic human need for companionship and social interaction as it may be.

In recognition of the long-term impact of the pandemic on the mental health of the world’s populations, the United Nations has urged governments to improve their capacity “to minimize the mental health consequences of the pandemic” by 1.) “adopting a-whole-of-society approach to promote, protect and care for mental health”; 2.) ensuring “the widespread availability of emergency mental health and psychosocial support”; and, 3.) enhancing citizens’ recovery from COVID-19 by building mental health services for the future.”

The first requires, among others, including mental health concerns in whatever “national response plan” a government may have, and reducing the number of incidents that harm mental well-being such as the “acute impoverishment” of its constituents.

The second includes strengthening social cohesion by helping those isolated at home to stay connected with others, and protecting the human rights of those with mental health issues by making sure they have access to appropriate care.

The third demands raising the capacity of governments to deal with mental health problems by investing in the reform of universal healthcare networks, which among others means including mental health among their priority concerns.

These are only a few of the recommended programs of action the UN recommends; there are several others. But even the implementation of these few is in the Philippines already problematic.

The punitive, arrest-and-jail-them-all orientation of the Duterte regime in dealing with the pandemic not only contributes to the spread of the disease by packing alleged violators of quarantine protocols into the country’s notoriously overcrowded prisons. It even adds to the fear and anxiety of much of the population.

There is also the already “acute impoverishment” of millions of disemployed Filipinos that the regime is unable to remedy due to the many “difficulties” — among them the corruption, inefficiency and sheer incompetence of many of its own officials — it has admitted it has had to cope with in controlling the economic impact of the pandemic on the citizenry.

Filipino psychiatrists have not been remiss in alerting the public and the government to the looming if not already existing mental health problem and have reported a notable increase in the number of consultations during the pandemic. But neither the citizenry nor the Duterte regime seems to regard it with any sense of urgency. Their indifference is consistent with mental health’s being least prioritized in Philippine governance and society. Part of the reason is the persistence of the thinking that those with mental health issues are somehow at fault and are to be shunned, despised, and even publicly humiliated and ridiculed.

And yet the problem is more common than mass and official prejudice seems to assume, and, as the WHO has cautioned, is thus likely to worsen. Even before the pandemic, according to the Department of Health, 5.3% of the Philippines’ 100 million plus population, or more than five million people, were already suffering from various forms of depressive disorders. Some 16% of students in their teens, a WHO study found in 2011, have contemplated suicide, while still others have actually attempted it once or even several times.

Such anecdotal evidence as the incidents of random, meaningless violence, and of individuals’ clambering up billboards and high-rise buildings and threatening to jump from them; the half-naked human derelicts one often sees roaming the streets mumbling to unseen beings; the suicides among the young that have become so common they merit only a casual mention in much of the media; and the fact that many Filipinos have a weird relative or two somewhere whom the family never mentions, support these findings. But the even worse news is that there are only a few thousand clinical psychiatrists in the Philippines, and mental health institutions few, inadequately staffed and funded, and absent in many areas.

It seems only reasonable to expect that in addition to devising effective means to halt or at least reduce the transmission of COVID-19, mitigating the economic impact of the pandemic and recovering from the economic recession, the government should also seriously look into reducing the mental health costs of the current public health emergency.

It can start with implementing what is doable among the steps the United Nations has suggested governments should take. It will admittedly take some doing in this country. But any government aware of its responsibility to protect its citizens and prevent the breakdown of Philippine society should be able to understand that it has no choice but to address the problem before it, too, becomes as widespread and as unmanageable as the social injustice, the mass poverty, the corruption in high places, the oppression and the inequality that, like the threat of COVID-19, haunt this country and its people.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Gaslighting the Filipino

Gaslight is George Cukor’s classic 1944 film where Charles Boyer’s character, by a series of subtle manipulations and outright deceptions, tries to make his wife, played by Ingrid Bergman, believe she’s insane.

The movie (originally, a play) has lent its name to the psychological and political term “gaslighting,” where people are mentally and emotionally destabilized, resulting in their motives, beliefs, and values being discredited or delegitimized. The objective is to exert power and control over another.

Aside from another psychological phenomena, the Stockholm Syndrome (discussed in a previous article), “gaslighting” perhaps describes most poignantly what is happening in the Philippines right now.

Consider: the Philippine Statistical Authority recently released data showing total deaths nationally from January to June of 2020 going down by 16% (or 49,584) from the same period 2019. Even assuming late reporting and if we use June 2019 numbers (309,010), COVID-19 deaths at the end of June 2020 (1,266) would only constitute .4% of deaths nationwide.

As of this writing, 460 Filipinos died monthly on average from COVID-19. Compare that with the 300 Filipino average monthly deaths by suicide, 1,000 from car crashes. Going by the Department of Health’s 2018 data: 2,038 die on monthly average from tuberculosis, 2,775 from diabetes, 2,788 from hypertensive diseases, 4,745 from cerebrovascular diseases, 4,817 from pneumonia, 5,039 from cancer, and 6,178 from ischemic heart disease.

And yet, by a relentless stream of media and government pronouncements (“COVID-19 is a deadly killer!”) many Filipinos were gaslighted into agreeing to being locked-down and, consequently, economic devastation.

Gaslighting (“So you want to put children in danger?”) was also used to shut down our classrooms.

But as of Aug. 10, the Philippines reported 2,293 COVID-19 deaths. Of those deaths, 126 came from the 0-29 years old age range. Which comes to 25 deaths monthly. Excluding those who died with co-morbidities, the chances of a 0 to 29-year-old dying of COVID-19 is nearly nil. Kids are more likely to die from car crashes, assault, pneumonia, heart disease, or tuberculosis (according to the World Health Organization’s listing of the top causes of deaths for Filipino youths).

Ah,” so the gaslighting goes, “but the problem with COVID-19 is it’s transmissibility. So you selfishly want to kill those around you?”

But tuberculosis is perhaps more so. The current estimated R-naught for COVID-19 is 2.2 (i.e., each infected person can infect 2.2 more). Tuberculosis’ reported transmissibility rate is between 0.5 to 4.3, with China and India having the highest rates. It’s a pretty good bet the Philippines would have a similarly high percentage considering we’re third highest in tuberculosis prevalence rate in the world.

Tuberculosis is also the country’s top infectious killer (more than COVID-19), with nearly 70 people dying from it every day, nearly 25,000 annually. Its case fatality rate (CFR) reportedly ranges between 7-35% (the Philippine’s COVID-19 CFR is currently 1.68%).

“But COVID-19 may have long-term effects!”

So does the flu. Or dengue. And tuberculosis.

Flus reportedly can “worsen long-term medical conditions, like congestive heart failure, asthma, or diabetes” according to one piece of medical literature; “dengue leaves some long term ill effects including hair fall, alopecia, joint pain and muscle pain” says another; and tuberculosis “causes lasting damage to lungs… which, in the worst cases, results in large holes in the lungs called cavities” says still one more.

“Wait! COVID-19 has no vaccine yet.”

Same with tuberculosis, which has no real effective vaccine. HIV and SARS are still without vaccines. Flu vaccines are said to be only 55% effective. And yet the country remained open.

As for that mythical COVID-19 vaccine, of which apparently all Philippine hope rests upon, the Philippine Star reported the World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warning “there might never be a ‘silver bullet’ against COVID-19 and recommending instead people ‘to focus on what is known to work: contract tracing, social distancing, testing and frequent hand washing.’”

Notice that lockdowns were never mentioned.

This present MECQ itself came about after gaslighting the Filipino people: “How dare you refuse medical workers their rest?” Later this was changed to: “No, it wasn’t about rest but to facilitate the re-calibration of resources and develop a better strategy to confront COVID-19.”

How locking people up in their houses will smoothen the way for more medical resources and developing a better strategy was never made clear.

In the meantime, almost one week later (as of Aug. 10), hospital COVID-19 occupancy rates merely went down by 2%, while daily new cases rose 116% from the day before the MECQ was implemented (Aug. 3). So much for MECQs providing breathing space.

And while GDP shrank by 16.5%, plunging the Philippines into deep recession, and 8 million Filipinos face unemployment, anyone questioning the lockdowns, the fear mongering, and closed classrooms are all gaslighted as fringe right-wingers and shouted down.

In Gaslight, Bergman’s character ultimately triumphs against her criminally manipulative sociopathic husband. And it began when she started demanding: “I must get out of this house, meet people, and see a little of what’s going on in the world.”

Wise words in these times.

 

Jemy Gatdula is a Senior Fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence.

jemygatdula@yahoo.com

www.jemygatdula.blogspot.com

facebook.com/jemy.gatdula

Twitter @jemygatdula

Inflation is actually a lot higher than you think

By Shuli Ren

AFTER almost a decade in hibernation, gold bugs are roaming the earth again. A fast drop in the dollar’s real yield and the uptick of a favored gauge of inflation expectations have sent the metal on a wild ride.

Skeptics might say there isn’t enough evidence of rising prices to warrant a neck-breaking run in gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation. (Maybe all that lockdown isolation had bond traders imagining things.) In July, US consumer prices rose 1% from a year earlier, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Meanwhile, at 2.7%, the headline figure in China remained in check, even as pork and fresh vegetable prices soared.

But here’s a thought: What if our governments aren’t measuring consumer prices correctly? Is it possible that inflation is actually a lot higher?

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) has overhauled our spending patterns entirely, not least because of social distancing rules. We’re laying out less on transportation, restaurants and hotels, and splurging on food, because — like it or not — we’re all home chefs now. This sudden change can introduce significant biases in the consumer price index, according to a new study from Harvard Business School.

Statistics bureaus in most countries update their CPI expenditure baskets only once a year, often using lagged data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, for instance, revised its weightings last December using information collected a year earlier. As a result, the indexes don’t reflect COVID-19.

In the official gauge, for instance, groceries receive a weight of less than 8%, whereas transportation gets about 15%. But recent data collected from consumers’ credit and debit card transactions show that a more appropriate weighting would be around 11% and 6%, the study’s author, Alberto Cavallo, found.

As gnarled distribution makes food more expensive, and groceries take up a bigger share of our daily budgets, the inflation we’re feeling is quite a bit higher than the numbers suggest. Meanwhile, cheaper transportation hardly matters, because we’re all staying home.

The bias in China is harder to measure because the CPI weighting is a state secret. What we do know is that the National Bureau of Statistics tweaks it every year. Bloomberg Intelligence gives us their best estimates: Food may be getting a 20% weight, while transportation and communication has about 14.5%.

Nonetheless, China’s downward bias is likely even more pronounced. Say food returns to its 30% weight from five years ago, a back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that consumer inflation would have hit 4% in July, well above the central bank’s 3% comfort zone. Food prices jumped by 13.2% last month, versus a 4.6% rise in the US, because a severe flood disrupted the supply chain.

This perhaps explains why, even though the dollar has become a less attractive investment vehicle thanks to the US government’s chaotic virus-containment policies, investors aren’t crowding into high-yield emerging-market currencies but opting for gold instead. Nominal rates are falling everywhere, while inflation is ticking up, and who knows what the real interest rates in various nations are. Gold, as I’ve argued, serves as a useful hedge in these extraordinary times.

Before writing this column, just for a sanity check, I asked my mother about the general cost of living in Shanghai, where I grew up. “Food is getting expensive, and I don’t buy anything else,” she quipped. That summarizes it. Sure, inflation may not show up on news headlines, but we consumers feel it. Bond traders and gold enthusiasts are on to something.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

The skin she’s in

The Icon Clinic may have been present and thriving in the aesthetics industry for more than ten years now, but what’s unknown to many is two years ago, The Icon Clinic has branched out to build a skincare hub to give its patients an all-around pamper treat. And we have Vina Yapjuangco to thank for this skincare hub, as she brought to life what was once just an idea into a reality.

When Vina realized most of The Icon Clinic’s patients had to transfer to other clinics just to get facials and other dermatology services, the idea of a skincare hub was born. Back then, The Icon Clinic was a full-fledged plastic surgery center and didn’t offer any dermatology treatments. 

“Our patients found it difficult to explain to other clinics that they had surgery done. So, the need to offer dermatology services aroused,” Vina looks back to the skincare hub’s beginnings. Fast forward to today, Vina’s vision of a clean looking spa but still elegant came to life. 

Like the primary vision of The Icon Clinic, the skincare hub aims to give excellent patient care and realistic satisfactory results to anyone who enters the clinic. “We want them to feel welcome and at ease when they are in our clinic. No discrimination and judgment,” says Vina, discussing that the skincare’s target market is anyone who’s seeking nothing but excellent skincare treatments.

Being a pharmacist by profession, Vina had no choice but to step up to the role as the leading force behind the skincare hub. “Since my husband takes over the surgery clinic, it was automatic that I had to take the responsibility with our other venture,” Vina shares. To gain more knowledge about managing a business, Vina took up a Master’s in Business Management Health at the Ateneo de Manila University. With the help of this education, Vina has a better grasp of running and taking care of their business.

The Icon Clinic’s skincare hub has been operating for more than two years now, but the unparalleled patient experience from both the plastic surgery and skincare clinics remain the same. “I believe that all of our services are unique because of the personal touch that we give to our patients. Each patient is different, so we cater to what they need and personalize the treatments needed, with guaranteed REAL RESULTS,” Vina concludes. 

 

 

The Icon Clinic Dermatology Center is located at BTTC Centre Unit G3-288 Ortigas Ave. corner Roosevelt St. Greenhills, San Juan City.