BEIJING — China’s economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter as fragile domestic demand left it heavily reliant on manufacturing production and exports, stoking concerns about deepening structural imbalances.

The economy’s overreliance on exports at a time of mounting trade tensions with Washington is also raising questions over whether Beijing has the resolve to tackle critical policy challenges to foster longer term sustainable growth.

These concerns remain on the forefront of China’s policy deliberations even as Monday’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed forecast-matching growth of 4.8% in the third quarter, keeping the economy on track to expand by roughly 5% this year, potentially with the help of more stimulus.

“With China on track to hit this year’s growth target, we could see less policy urgency,” said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China at ING.

“But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed.”

Beijing may be using the headline resilience in growth as a show of strength in upcoming talks between its vice premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Malaysia this week and a potential meeting between presidents Donald J. Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea later.

The recent export data also highlights China’s ability to diversify away from the US market, the world’s largest consumer economy. Its US export sales were down 27% year on year last month, but shipments to the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6% and 56.4%, respectively.

Still, the sluggish domestic market remains a drag for businesses with Monday’s data showing retail sales slowing to a 10-month low.

The third-quarter gross domestic product growth lagged the 5.2% pace in the second quarter but was in line with a Reuters poll forecast for a rise of 4.8%.

The economy grew 5.2% year on year in January-September, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, suggesting growth is on track to hit the government’s annual target of around 5%.

On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in the third quarter, compared with a forecast 0.8% increase and a revised 1% gain in the previous quarter.

TRADE RIFT HIGHLIGHTS WEAKNESS IN LOPSIDED ECONOMY
Renewed trade tensions with Washington have highlighted the vulnerabilities of China’s lopsided economy, raising expectations that Chinese leaders may embrace painful changes to rebalance growth towards domestic consumption.

While China’s export growth rebounded in September, much of the recent data show the world’s second-largest economy has lost momentum, and deflationary pressures have persisted despite efforts to curb overcapacity and fierce competition.

Moreover, manufacturers’ sales abroad to non-US countries come at the cost of profitability due to intense competition on price, making it hard to sustain unless trade tensions tone down.

Jeremy Fang, a sales officer at a Chinese aluminum products maker, says his firm lost 20% of revenue as higher sales in Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, Turkey and the Middle East failed to fully offset an 80%-90% order plunge in the US.

Mr. Fang said he is learning Spanish to get ahead of his Chinese competitors rushing to non-US markets and is now travelling abroad twice more often than he did last year.

But that extra effort isn’t enough.

“You have to be ruthlessly competitive on price,” Mr. Fang said. “If your price is $100 and the customer starts bargaining, it’s better to drop $10-$20 and take the order. You can’t hesitate.”

Mr. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by an additional 100% starting Nov. 1. However, US officials have signaled that both countries are prepared to lower the temperature in their tariff spat.

CHINA’S FIVE-YEAR PLAN IN FOCUS
Chinese leaders will hold a closed-door meeting from Monday through to Thursday to discuss, among other things, the country’s 15^th five-year development plan, which is expected to prioritize high-tech manufacturing in the wake of the intensifying rivalry with the United States.

Investors are also looking to a Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, expected in December, for clues on economic policy for next year.

The prolonged crisis in the property market, with latest figures showing investment in the sector down 13.9% in the first three quarters year-on-year, has weighed heavily on growth and consumer confidence in China.

Authorities have unveiled modest stimulus measures this year, and while there is room for additional support, analysts are divided over whether policymakers will act this year.

“I don’t think there will be additional consumption-focused stimulus. The focus of policy is long-term, including pension reform, which will improve consumption in the future, but will reduce it more immediately due to layoffs and people having less cash in hand,” Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

Separate September data, which were also released on Monday, showed industrial output grew to a three-month high of 6.5% year on year, accelerating from 5.2% growth in August and beating a forecast of 5%.

Retail sales rose 3% in September, the slowest pace in 10 months, from 3.4% in August and matching a forecast 3% rise.

Fixed-asset investment shrank 0.5% in January-September from a year earlier, reversing a 0.5% rise in the first eight months for its first contraction since the pandemic. — Reuters

HONG KONG — Two Hong Kong airport security staff were killed early on Monday after a cargo plane from Dubai skidded off the runway on landing, collided with their security patrol vehicle and pushed it into the sea, the city’s airport operator said.

The Boeing 747 involved in the deadliest airport incident in the financial hub in more than 25 years also fell into the water and was partially submerged, but all four crew members on board escaped.

The airport security staff were not breathing when rescued from the water, with one confirmed dead at the scene and another later at hospital, said Steven Yiu, executive director of airport operations at Airport Authority Hong Kong.

The accident at the world’s busiest cargo airport involved a plane operated by Turkish freight carrier ACT Airlines on behalf of Emirates, the Dubai-based airline said in a statement.

Authorities are still investigating the exact cause of the crash, with weather, runway conditions, the aircraft and aircrew part of the investigation, Mr. Yiu said.

The accident occurred around 3:50 a.m. Hong Kong time on Monday (1950 GMT on Sunday).

An air traffic control recording available on LiveATC.net reviewed by Reuters indicated the cargo plane’s pilot confirmed plans to land on runway 07L where the crash occurred, but he did not report any technical issues on the recording.

“An incident happened at the airfield just now,” a female controller said minutes later.

Man Ka-chai, chief accident and safety investigator for Hong Kong’s Air Accident Investigation Authority, confirmed air traffic control had directed the flight to land at the north runway, but added: “We didn’t receive any message requesting help from the pilot.”

Mr. Yiu said the security patrol car was in charge of patrolling the north runway along a road that was outside the runway fence. It was operating in its usual area and “definitely didn’t rush onto the runway,” he said.

The airplane suddenly veered left after landing on the runway before hitting the car, which “wasn’t a normal path,” he said.

AIRPORT FLIGHTS NOT AFFECTED
Flights at Hong Kong’s airport have not been affected, Mr. Yiu said, adding that the northern runway at the world’s busiest cargo airport, where the incident occurred, would reopen after safety inspections were complete.

The south and central runways are operating as normal, the authority said.

Photos taken after the accident showed a cargo aircraft with AirACT livery partially submerged in water near the airport’s sea wall with an escape slide deployed and the nose and tail sections separated.

Hong Kong’s Civil Aviation Department said in a statement on Monday that the aircraft had “deviated from the north runway after landing and ditched into the sea.”

Emirates said flight EK9788 sustained damage on landing in Hong Kong on Monday and was a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft wet-leased from and operated by ACT Airlines.

“Crew are confirmed to be safe and there was no cargo onboard,” Emirates said.

Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

ACT Airlines is a Turkish carrier that provides extra cargo capacity to major airlines. It did not respond immediately to a request for comment outside normal business hours.

Flight tracking service FlightRadar24 said the aircraft involved in the accident was 32 years old and had served as a passenger plane before being converted into a freighter.

Mr. Yiu said the airport authority would provide all necessary assistance and support to the family, adding the two staff who died had worked at the airport for seven and 12 years respectively.

It was the deadliest airport accident in Hong Kong since a China Airlines flight crashed on landing in 1999, killing three of the 315 people on board, according to an Aviation Safety Network database. — Reuters

HANOI — Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said on Monday the government would target record gross domestic product (GDP) growth of at least 10% in 2026, saying the Southeast Asian economy had proven resilient despite pressure from external shocks.

Growth this year was estimated at 8%, Mr. Chinh told the opening of the new parliamentary session, adding the government would stick to its target of aiming for growth above 8%.

The session, which will last until Dec. 11 and include voting on key government and state appointments, precedes an important party congress that will define the country’s main strategies and policies for the coming five years.

Mr. Chinh said inflation will be below 4% this year, lower than the official target of 4.5% to 5%.

Over the first nine months of the year, GDP expanded by an annual 7.85%. The World Bank projects 6.6% growth this year, while the International Monetary Fund estimates 6.5%.

“The Vietnamese economy has proven to be strong enough to withstand external shocks, staying as one of the fastest-growing ones in the world,” Mr. Chinh told parliament.

Mr. Chinh also said the value of Vietnam’s goods trade was expected to reach $900 billion in 2025, despite a 20% tariff that has slowed exports to the United States, particularly footwear and textiles.

Vietnam, however, is facing other challenges, including mounting pressure on macroeconomic stability, volatility in the gold and real estate markets, air pollution, natural disasters and cybercrimes, he said.

“Development still relies heavily on cheap labor and resources, not on science, technology, innovation and digital transformation,” he added.

He reiterated Vietnam’s intention to sign new free trade agreements next year with countries in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa to diversify export markets.

Vietnam aims to begin construction of its multibillion-dollar North-South high-speed railway and launch satellite internet services next year, he said. — Reuters