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SEC vows to sustain reforms

THE SECURITIES and Exchange Commission (SEC) has vowed to sustain corporate and capital market reforms to support the country’s growth.

“We are leaving 2024 with much needed changes implemented to enhance the business sector,” SEC Chairman Emilio B. Aquino said in an e-mailed statement on Monday. “As we embark on our 89th year, we will remain steadfast in transforming the capital market to support the growth of a sound and dynamic economy.”

The SEC said there were 49,432 company registrations from January to November, up 6% from last year and on track to a new record this year, led by its digitalization efforts.

“Looking back, the SEC has been relentless in its efforts to improve its services through digitalization and implementation of reforms that seek to create a conducive environment that will encourage businesses to incorporate and tap the capital market,” Mr. Aquino said.

Market capitalization had increased 23.6% year on year to P20.12 trillion as of Nov. 30, according to the corporate regulator.

It said Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-labeled green, social, sustainable and other labeled bonds (GSS+) issued by Philippine companies from January to November rose seven times to P209.29 billion.

“This brings the value of outstanding ASEAN-labeled GSS+ issued as of end-November to P661.6 billion, representing a 46.27% growth from the same period last year,” it said.

It also said it met its target this year of 888 companies that raised funds public offerings of securities and crowdfunding.

The SEC also intensified efforts to boost investor protection and education. It had released 106 public advisories against unauthorized and illegal investment-taking activities and schemes by end-October. It also issued 18 cease orders against 42 entities and revocation orders against 24 groups.

The SEC filed criminal complaints against 68 people with the Justice department for violating the Securities Regulation Code and the Financial Products and Services Consumer Protection Act.

Meanwhile, the regulator launched digital initiatives to streamline government processes. These include the SEC Zuper Easy Registration Online and Electronic Submission Authentication Portal, which allowed applicants to register their businesses by allowing the digital authentication of documents.

The commission also formed the SEC Foreign Investment Registration Station green lane unit for the applications of companies under the Foreign Investment Act, as well as foreign and multinational companies. It had processed almost 16,000 applications as of November, it said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

AppleOne to complete JW Marriott Residences Panglao in four years

TOURISM SECRETARY Christina Frasco (center), led the groundbreaking of JW Marriott Panglao in Bohol on Dec. 2, 2023. — APPLEONE

CEBU-BASED AppleOne Group seeks to complete its JW Marriott Residences Panglao in Bohol province in central Philippines by 2028, according to a high-ranking official.

“We’re looking at 2028 for the entire hotel and residences,” Samantha Manigsaca, assistant vice-president for hospitality at AppleOne Group, said in a video interview with BusinessWorld earlier this month.

The property, which broke ground in December 2023, is being developed after the company signed a deal with Marriott International. It will be located on a seven-hectare beachfront on Panglao Island in Bohol.

The property will cater to luxury homebuyers and tourists. Taking inspiration from resorts in Bali, Indonesia, the luxury condotel will blend modern lifestyle with nature.

“We leaned towards the luxury segment for Bohol because compared with Cebu, the area is more exclusive,” Ms. Manigsaca said. “We see that the luxury market is into those kinds of travel, the relaxation, the quiet [type.]”

The project will offer several restaurants with diverse food choices and quality amenities.

“When we were pre-planning this project, our main goal was very aligned to what the tourists nowadays do — that they don’t want to go out of the resorts,” Ms. Manigsaca said. “We really want to have multiple restaurants inside so our guests won’t get tired. So, they get to try something different during breakfast, lunch or dinner.”

The property will have 150 rooms — 80 keys for its hotel, JW Marriott Panglao Island Resort & Spa, and 70 for its residences, Ms. Manigsaca said.

The residence portion will feature one and two bedrooms and villas. It will also offer private amenities like a pool and lounge.

“It’s very similar to what Sheraton [Hotels & Resorts] offers but of course, it’s way more elevated because this is a luxury segment,” she said. “So, these offer higher quality products and amenities.” — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz

How OnlyFans turned into a global empire bent on redefining porn

By Andrew R.C. Marshall, Echo Wang, Rosa Furneaux, Jason Szep and Linda So

ONLYFANS is on a mission to redefine porn.

With $1.3 billion in revenue and over 300 million users, the fast-growing company has fused sex work with the online creator economy so successfully that it has branched out into comedy, music and motor-racing.

But for all its ambition and influence, the inner workings of OnlyFans remain opaque.

It has just a few dozen employees even as its user base has almost quadrupled in recent years. Its billionaire owner is rarely seen in public or even mentioned in talks by its chief executive officer (CEO). There’s no company sign outside its registered London address, and a significant but secretive part of its operations — including content moderation — is based in Ukraine, a country at war.

Reuters traced OnlyFans’ journey from an obscure, porn-free site created by a British family to an adults-only social media phenomenon turbocharged by erotic performers and celebrity influencers, worth billions of dollars. As it’s grown, OnlyFans has sought to use explicit content – its seemingly bottomless source of revenue – as a springboard to greater scale, positioning itself as a tech pioneer with a place among social media giants such as Instagram and X. Key to that effort is making porn more socially acceptable and distancing the company from the abuses often associated with the industry.

The public face of OnlyFans is CEO Keily Blair, an Irish lawyer and self-described feminist and “safety nerd” promoted to the top job in 2023. In public appearances, Ms. Blair, 42, presents the platform as lucrative and empowering, particularly for women, and often mentions her two daughters. “I want them to have a good online life,” she told delegates at a UK child-protection conference in 2023. “I want the same for your kids.”

People flock to OnlyFans, she says, because it offers “ethical” porn – although she prefers not to use what she calls the “P-word.”

But the P-word drives the business. Creators typically make money from subscribers by posting porn and chatting with them online. Created in 2016, OnlyFans says it has paid out over $20 billion to its creators, who now number 4.1 million. The company takes a 20% cut of creators’ revenue.

OnlyFans didn’t respond to Reuters’ requests to interview Ms. Blair or the company’s owner, Leonid Radvinsky. The company and its parent, Fenix International, Ltd., didn’t respond to most questions for this story.

This account of the company’s rise is based on interviews with more than a dozen people with direct knowledge of OnlyFans’ operations, along with dozens of creators, former creators, and experts in the porn industry, content moderation and online safety. Reporters also reviewed corporate filings, court records, websites and speeches related to OnlyFans and its key staff.

OnlyFans pledges publicly that it’s building “the safest social media platform in the world.” It operates behind millions of creator paywalls, however, which make this claim almost impossible to independently assess. Those paywalls can hide serious harm. In a series of investigations published this year, Reuters examined police and court records that documented multiple cases of sexual slavery, child sexual abuse material, and nonconsensual or “revenge” porn on OnlyFans between 2019 and 2024.

OnlyFans says it prohibits child sexual abuse material and “modern slavery,” including sex trafficking, and removes illicit content as soon as it is detected. The company also has said it invests heavily in content moderation, vetting “everything” on the site, and works closely with law enforcement globally to support their investigations.

Mr. Radvinsky, the owner Ms. Blair rarely mentions in public, bought OnlyFans in 2018 and is its sole shareholder. Now 42 years old, he has paid himself at least a billion dollars in dividends over the past three years, corporate filings show.

For a head of a famous company, he is little known.

Even with specialized search tools, Reuters could find only six different photos of Mr. Radvinsky online. Of four websites that appear to belong to him, only one mentions OnlyFans by name; none reveals that porn is a major source of his fortune.

Instead, they describe him as an angel investor and philanthropist who dedicates “a huge amount of time, effort and money to non-profit causes.”

FISH & CHIPS & PORN
Mr. Radvinsky cashed in on OnlyFans. But he didn’t create it.

That was British businessman Tim Stokely, a native of Essex, a county northeast of London. As a schoolboy, Mr. Stokely’s “first entrepreneurial endeavor” was charging classmates to collect their orders from a local fish and chips shop, according to an archived version of timstokely.com, a personal website.

But as an adult, it was porn that made Mr. Stokely rich — after a couple of false starts.

In 2011, he launched Glam Worship, a fetish site that allowed users to send gifts and money to dominatrixes. Slogan: “Your new addiction.” A year or two later, he unveiled Customs4U, where women uploaded personalized porn videos for paying customers.

Both ventures failed. Mr. Stokely tried again. After an inspirational chat with friends, according to timstokely.com, he set out to create a website “that made it easy for all creators to monetize their content” – in other words, a social media platform with a pay button.

That platform was OnlyFans.

“The team hit the ground running, pulling late hours to bootstrap the company: From writing code to create a minimal, easy-to-use interface to personally messaging early adopters,” Mr. Stokely’s website said.

Mr. Stokely’s family — described as “very close-knit” by the website — played a central role. OnlyFans launched in 2016 with Tim as CEO and, by year’s end, his parents Guy and Deborah as directors. His brother Tom became chief operating officer in 2018.

Another of the early directors of OnlyFans was Petra, a self-described silent partner in the business who spoke on condition her surname be withheld. An American citizen living in the Netherlands, Petra worked for the porn site FreeOnes and was an expert in raising the visibility of websites on search engines. She said her main job was to drive traffic to OnlyFans. “It was never meant to be a porn site, though,” she said.

Initially, OnlyFans’ terms of service banned explicit content. Petra said the company had hoped to attract musicians and influencers from YouTube and Instagram, but couldn’t get enough of them interested.

“So we just decided to go back with what we know,” she said. “And that’s adult.”

By the end of 2017, OnlyFans had lifted its ban on porn – and the platform took off.

To expand in the US, said Petra, the Stokelys relied on Bill Fox, a prominent figure in California’s porn industry. Mr. Fox recruited dozens of adult performers to join OnlyFans, she said. They were known at the company as “Bill’s Girls,” two former contractors told Reuters.

While Mr. Fox in California provided the A-list performers, the Stokelys made the business decisions in England, said the contractors, and the company expanded rapidly and chaotically.

Former Thai-British porn star Keni Styles, who worked for OnlyFans in the early years, said the company’s direction was a matter of fierce debate. He recalled one Skype meeting, around 2018, descending into a yelling match between Mr. Fox and Tim Stokely.

“Bill wanted it to be just a straight-up adult porn site. Tim had this vision that he was going to challenge Facebook, he was going to challenge Instagram. He was going to bring mainstream YouTube content-creators to OnlyFans.”

Tim, Tom and their parents couldn’t be reached for comment. Bill Fox died in 2019.

The goal wasn’t to hold onto OnlyFans long-term, Petra said. “We wanted a project that we could basically go off and sell,” she said.

In 2018, a buyer appeared: Mr. Radvinsky. How much he paid for OnlyFans has never been disclosed.

ENTER LEO
The new owner was media-shy and socially awkward, said three people who’ve met him — very unlike Mr. Stokely, whose Instagram account brims with images of fast cars, porn stars and villas in Ibiza.

Mr. Radvinsky brought a wealth of experience in the rapidly evolving business of online porn.

As a boy, in the dying years of the Soviet Union, he and his parents left Ukraine for the US He grew up in Illinois, where his first company, Cybertania Inc, was registered by his mother, Anna, in March 1999, according to company filings. Mr. Radvinsky was then only 16.

His mother couldn’t be reached for comment.

Mr. Radvinsky would describe Cybertania’s business in a 2014 court declaration as “online entertainment.” One of its earliest ventures was a website called Ultrapasswords.com, which promised links to porn-related websites, according to a 2021 story by Forbes.

It was a lucrative enterprise. A court filing by Cybertania said Ultrapasswords was generating income of about $5,000 per day in 2002 – the same year Mr. Radvinsky turned 20. The site is no longer active.

Two years later, with an economics degree from Northwestern University outside Chicago, Mr. Radvinsky started his first big porn venture: MyFreeCams, where models performed sexual acts on a live webcam feed. Viewers paid by the minute or bought virtual tokens to tip the performer.

By 2010, XBIZ, a news outlet for the porn industry, was calling MyFreeCams “one of the world’s largest adult webcam communities,” with 100,000 models on its books. It is still around today and owned by Mr. Radvinsky’s US-based MFCXY, Inc.

MyFreeCams was part of a wave of “cam sites” that capitalized on faster internet speeds. They marked a major shift in porn, which until the early 2000s was primarily made by studio-based performers and distributed on videotape, and later CDs and DVDs, or via pay-per-view TV.

Then came so-called “tube sites” in the mid-2000s. These websites didn’t produce their own porn but provided a platform for content uploaded by users — professionals and amateurs alike. Sites such as Xtube, Pornhub and xHamster, which attracted hundreds of millions of users, mainly made money through ads and by selling user data. Consumers got limitless content for free.

“Porn was more accessible than ever before, but performers were making less and less money off of it,” said Maggie MacDonald, a doctoral candidate at the University of Toronto who studies porn platforms. For the next decade, as the tube sites dominated internet porn, many performers struggled.

“And then OnlyFans comes along,” said Ms. MacDonald, an adviser to the private equity firm that owns Aylo, Pornhub’s parent company.

Under Mr. Radvinsky, Tim Stokely stayed on as CEO for the next three years, with his brother Tom as chief operating officer and their father Guy, a former merchant banker, as a co-director with Mr. Radvinsky.

The company’s fortunes soared with the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdowns.

Millions of isolated, horny people flocked to porn sites. OnlyFans saw a surge in creators, users and revenue in the US and Europe, its main markets. Between 2019 and 2021, its pretax profits rose from $5.6 million to $432.9 million, according to corporate filings.

Although free porn was readily available online, OnlyFans seemed to offer something different that people would pay for: personal connection. Subscribers could directly message creators, and seek companionship and intimacy. Creators made money through subscriptions, tips and sales of custom-made content.

OnlyFans offered its creators an alluring mix of gig work, sexual expression and financial freedom – and, for some influencers, a rare chance to convert big social media followings into small fortunes, so long as they were willing to strip off.

One creator who reaped huge profits is Danielle Bregoli, a rebellious teen who became famous for her 2016 TV appearance with her mother on Dr. Phil. In a segment titled, “I Want to Give Up My Car-Stealing, Knife-Wielding, Twerking 13-Year-Old Daughter Who Tried to Frame Me for a Crime,” she taunted the audience to fight her outside: “Cash me outside, how bout dah?” The catchphrase launched her career as the chart-topping rapper Bhad Bhabie, gaining her millions of followers on social media.

In April 2021, six days after her 18th birthday, she created an OnlyFans account, posting sexually suggestive photos. In the first six hours, she earned more than $1 million, Ms. Bregoli told Reuters. A year later, that sum had reached almost $42 million, she said.

“I had no idea it would make this kind of money,” she said. “Nobody did.”

While top creators cashed in, others scraped by. “It’s incredibly rare that you speak to someone who’s making loads of money,” said Hanne Stegeman, whose doctoral research at the University of Amsterdam focused on the experiences of online sex workers, including OnlyFans creators. “Much more often people are working quite hard to make something similar to a minimum wage.”

Roxie Roots, a former OnlyFans creator from Germany who joined OnlyFans in 2018 and left in 2021, found the work harder — and the earnings much smaller – than she’d expected.

“I kept going for years because I was like, Oh my God, I need to come out with something — at least some savings,” she said.

A ‘MASSIVE EXPLOSION IN CONTENT’
One former employee had a ringside view of what he called the “massive explosion of content” during the pandemic years. Zak Hembry joined OnlyFans in 2019 and worked as a content moderator from his home in Bishop’s Stortford, north of London.

Content was screened by a “programmable bot” that flagged suspect material for human moderators to review, Mr. Hembry said. He scanned this material for illicit content, which was then blocked or removed. “I’ve seen all kinds of things I wish I hadn’t seen on there,” he said, including content featuring children, animals or feces, as well as a creator who was “overeating on purpose.”

In its early years, said Mr. Hembry, OnlyFans took a “zero-tolerance” approach to creators who broke its rules. But as content flooded in under Mr. Radvinsky’s ownership, top earners were treated more leniently, said Mr. Hembry and another former contractor in the US.

Those whose accounts might have been shut down in the past began to receive warnings instead, Mr. Hembry said.

For instance, he said he once suspended an account showing an incestuous sexual encounter between adult twins – violating OnlyFans’ terms of service. Later, he said, he was exasperated to see that someone above him had reactivated the account.

“Why should you give them another chance?” he said. Mr. Hembry concluded that “money was more important” at OnlyFans than rules. The former US contractor agreed; creators who made millions of dollars for the platform could “upload whatever the hell they want,” she said.

By 2021, Mr. Hembry said he knew of more than a dozen people in the UK who worked as OnlyFans moderators.

Faced with exponential growth, OnlyFans turned to workers from Ukraine, Mr. Radvinsky’s homeland, which had a well-developed IT industry, former employees and contractors said. By February 2022, when Russia launched its all-out invasion, OnlyFans had a “huge team” in Ukraine doing content moderation and other functions, CEO Keily Blair said in a recent speech at the Trouble Club in London, which hosts talks by prominent women.

Some of those workers were recruited by a firm called StopFraud, according to four people who previously worked at StopFraud or OnlyFans. One Ukrainian ex-moderator hired by StopFraud shared with Reuters a payment receipt showing she was paid by OnlyFans.

StopFraud is almost untraceable. It describes itself as a “fast-growing, US-based company” in ads posted on a Ukrainian jobs website, but Reuters could find no business registration for it in the US, the UK or Ukraine. The firm could not be reached for comment.

OnlyFans doesn’t publicly acknowledge any relationship with StopFraud, and StopFraud’s website doesn’t mention OnlyFans. Several former StopFraud workers told Reuters they knew little about their employer. They worked from home, moderating content and vetting creators. They knew their colleagues only by nickname. One said the clandestine conditions made her feel like a “spy.” Others declined interviews, saying they had signed nondisclosure agreements.

Mr. Hembry said his UK-based content-moderation team was phased out as Ukrainian contractors took over, and he briefly moved to a job handling relations with top creators. But he could still check the queue where content awaited review, he said. Just before he was laid off in 2022, he said, the queue contained millions of items – at least 50 times the normal load he had seen the year before. He said he couldn’t see how the Ukrainian contractors would get the job done. It’s unclear how the war affected their work. After it broke out, Ms. Blair has said, OnlyFans relocated “a number of people” from Ukraine to neighboring Poland.

By 2022, OnlyFans publicly said it was building “the world’s safest social media platform.” In July that year, it told Ofcom, the British media regulator, that while it relied on automation to flag problems, all content was ultimately reviewed by a human moderator.

At a site with OnlyFans’ volume of content, that task was “virtually impossible” without hiring “thousands of moderators,” said Jason Pomales, former director of trust and safety at Vimeo, a prominent video-sharing platform. “And that’s a huge cost.”

Four other content moderation experts agreed that OnlyFans’ claim of blanket human review was implausible. In November alone, the website said it uploaded almost 55 million pieces of content.

OnlyFans’ moderation process, meanwhile, remains murky. It says 80% of its workforce consists of “trained content moderators,” but the company doesn’t divulge publicly the size of that workforce or how moderators are trained. That makes OnlyFans’ claims about the effectiveness of its moderation difficult for outsiders to verify.

Ofcom has collected information about moderation and other business operations directly from OnlyFans. Some of that information – including the platform’s moderation staffing levels – hasn’t been published, Ofcom said, because the law restricts what it can disclose without the consent of the businesses it regulates. However, a spokesperson added: “It’s our current understanding that every piece of content (on OnlyFans) is ultimately moderated by a human.”

SKITTISH BANKS
As OnlyFans’ popularity grew, illegal content was slipping by its moderators. People were complaining to police of abuses on the platform. The BBC had found children on the site. And OnlyFans’ bankers appeared nervous.

In August 2021, the company dropped a bombshell announcement: it would ban porn as of that October. Offering few details, the company said it was seeking to comply with requests from banking partners and payment providers. In an interview with the Financial Times, Tim Stokely blamed “unfair” treatment by banks that had flagged and rejected OnlyFans payments to its creators due to reputational risk.

The proposed ban outraged porn creators. Many felt betrayed. Lauren Phillips, an American creator who joined OnlyFans early on, said she felt like the company wanted “to use us and then throw us away.”

Six days later, OnlyFans abruptly retracted the ban, saying it had secured the “assurances necessary” to support its creators. It didn’t explain what those assurances were or who gave them. But removing porn would have crippled the platform – and cut off a growing stream of revenue for the banks handling OnlyFans’ business.

Still, it remained an uphill struggle to convince potential banking partners that porn on OnlyFans wasn’t a smokescreen for abuse, some bankers said.

In the spring of 2023, intermediaries for OnlyFans spoke with several Wall Street investment banks to explore the possibility of partnerships, according to three people involved. One said taking OnlyFans public was discussed; the others told Reuters that the intermediaries were seeking major banks to help process payments for OnlyFans.

By then, OnlyFans had eye-popping numbers: over a billion dollars in revenue, over half a billion in operating profit. Bankers would have typically fought for such business. But the talks went nowhere. The hitch, according to two of those involved, was OnlyFans’ main product: porn.

Porn makes OnlyFans untouchable for many big banks and investors, said six bankers, lawyers and other investors, all with expertise in capital markets but no ties to OnlyFans, who spoke with Reuters on condition they and their employers not be named. Four expressed concern that any due diligence done on the platform might find illegal content such as child sexual abuse material, trafficking victims and nonconsensual porn.

OnlyFans has since said it has no plans to go public. Business is booming. In 2023, content creators generated $6.6 billion on the platform. The company had more than enough free cash flow to remain privately held. Its dividend payout of $472 million to Mr. Radvinsky was more than Ralph Lauren earned from the fashion company he founded and Nike co-founder Phil Knight earned from the sportswear giant – combined.

As a reclusive porn mogul, Mr. Radvinsky isn’t usually mentioned in the same breath as the world’s eminent billionaires. But he has suggested he would like it to be.

“My goal is to one day be in a position to sign The Giving Pledge,” he says on one website that appears to belong to him, referring to promises made by Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Mark Zuckerberg and other tycoons to give away most of their wealth to charitable causes.

Rebuffed by Wall Street, OnlyFans continued its efforts to become a mainstream company, seeking to convince the world that its porn was safe – and that OnlyFans was more than a porn site.

That job fell to its CEO, Keily Blair.

‘ETHICAL’ PORN
At her previous role as a lawyer with the law firm Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe, Ms. Blair said she specialized in cybersecurity and online privacy. At least three other Orrick staff have gone to work for OnlyFans, an Orrick client.

At OnlyFans, Ms. Blair presents herself as the folksy, straight-talking leader of a company with mainstream appeal.

“We also host lots of other content,” she said in March at the SXSW conference in Austin, Texas, citing sports, comedy and music. OnlyFans also offers safe-for-work content on OFTV, a streaming platform it launched in 2021.

OnlyFans says it doesn’t even track how much porn it sells, lumping it in financially with all its other offerings. “We don’t categorize our creators by the content they produce so we don’t know what proportion are creating adult content,” a company spokesperson told Reuters last year. Ms. Blair has publicly dismissed the claim that almost all OnlyFans content is porn, without providing a figure of her own.

She also says the porn on OnlyFans is different from other sites. At the SXSW conference, which says it showcases “cutting edge ideas,” she explained how OnlyFans allowed adult performers to escape the “exploitative” studio system and directly profit from the content they produced. This “ethical” adult content, she said, was what drew so many subscribers to OnlyFans.

“I am a feminist,” Ms. Blair told her audience at the Trouble Club in August. “My feminism helps to inform why I do this job.”

Some see Ms. Blair’s appointment as a wily PR move for OnlyFans.

In a recent LinkedIn post, Elly Hanson, a clinical psychologist who focuses on preventing sexual abuse, questioned whether a male CEO would “be regularly invited into societal forums to wax lyrical about ‘empowerment,’ ‘authenticity’ and ‘feminism’ without robust challenge and debate? Of course not.”

Kim Swallows, an American creator who joined OnlyFans in 2017, said OnlyFans is downplaying the contributions of the porn creators whose hard work made it so rich.

“I feel like they’re definitely trying to sanitize their image,” she said.

Other current and former creators also questioned how empowering OnlyFans was for women. Roots, the former creator from Germany, said the platform drew young, potentially vulnerable women into the porn business but offered no advice on coping with its demands and lasting impact.

Producing and promoting content was relentless and punishing, and male customers wanted to “use you for their gratification,” she said. “It’s very difficult to call this feminist.”

Sophia Mayy, 27, a creator from England, said she joined OnlyFans in 2021 to make “a bit of extra pocket money” and now brings home about 35,000 pounds ($44,000) a month. “I honestly wouldn’t look back,” she told Reuters.

Even so, says Ms. Mayy, it’s a mistake for OnlyFans to treat porn just like any other content — because of the risks involved in producing it. In her case, she said, the job has damaged her relations with family and friends, and forced her to cope with loneliness, long hours and abusive male subscribers.

“Probably the biggest thing of all is the mental toll it takes on you,” she said. “You are seen as an object, you are seen as a piece of meat.” — Reuters

Prepare for a bumpy year in coffee, oil and other commodities

COFFEE BEANS, percentage model miniature and US dollar banknote are seen in this illustration taken Dec. 17, 2024. — REUTERS

BEFORE it’s too late, order your espresso. It will be more expensive in 2025, and anyone trading — or observing — energy and commodity markets into the new year will need caffeine to survive.

First, a bit of honesty — 2025 looks awfully foggy. The supply-and-demand balance of key commodities can swing from hugely oversupplied to massively in deficit, depending on unpredictable politics. My crystal ball is about as good as anyone else’s about what Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu and several others will do. More than ever, predicting commodity prices in the new year is about forecasting political choices.

Still, we can anticipate a few themes — and few bits of commodity trivia I will be watching through the new year:

1) The OPEC+ oil cartel is on the ropes.

Having delayed a production increase by already six months, it’s unlikely that the group will be able to hike output in 2025 unless Trump comes to the rescue. Global oil demand growth in the new year is likely to reach around one million barrels a day, lower than the expected output growth from non-OPEC+ countries. The squeeze is the result of several years of high oil prices that have encouraged OPEC+’s rivals to invest in new output capacity.

Trump could alter the equation if he tightly enforces current American oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. For nearly four years, the Biden administration turned a blind eye on rising oil exports from both countries. If the incoming US president hits Tehran and Caracas, Saudi Arabia can use the opportunity to hike production. Otherwise, I don’t see much space for extra Saudi crude.

But Trump can create trouble for OPEC+, too, via two policies. One is his threat of a trade war, not only with Canada and Mexico, but also with the European Union and China, that could derail economic growth. The second is loosening regulations for American drilling. Trump has insisted his top priority is lower energy prices and more US oil and gas production, so, on balance, OPEC+ is likely to struggle. Yet, with Brent trading close to $70 a barrel, oil isn’t the easy short it was when it was close to $100 a barrel.

2) Like OPEC+, British oil major BP Plc is also on the ropes.

The company has been a disaster in the stock market, down more than 20% over the last five years. At current prices, its market value has declined to about $75 billion, a fraction of the $250 billion nearly two decades ago. The company has a key date with its shareholders in early February, when it’s scheduled to update its strategy.

The strategic update may give some investors a reason to stick with the company, but it will put the spotlight on two negatives: BP will effectively issue a profit warning. It previously guided the market to expect earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) as high as $49 billion in 2025. The true number is probably at least $10 billion lower. With that, share buybacks are likely to be lowered too, from a current pace of $1.75 billion a quarter to something far more affordable — say, $1 billion — to protect the balance sheet.

In the oil business, the credit rating comes ahead of the shareholders. Lower earnings and a smaller share repurchase could kill investor appetite for the stock, however, and open the door for a corporate deal. I have argued in the past that the company should seek a merger with a rival and see that as a high chance in 2025. The most obvious one is Shell Plc.

3) Watching OPEC+ and BP will require a steady supply of coffee.

Brace yourself for higher prices. Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s top producers of the Arabica and Robusta bean varieties, face a crop shortfall. This could be the fifth consecutive season where coffee consumption surpasses production, which is unprecedented. In late 2024, the price of Arabica surged to an all-time high, surpassing the nominal peak set in 1977. It may not be enough to keep the market balanced.

Coffee traders believe that if the Brazilian crop doesn’t recover — something unlikely — prices may need to climb from about 350 cents a pound currently to somewhere between 400 cents and 500 cents. Coffee roasters will in turn raise retail prices, particularly for the espresso made from Arabica beans.

While you’re bracing yourself for higher-for-longer coffee, add hot chocolate to your list.  The crops in West Africa, the region that accounts for 70% of the world’s cocoa production, haven’t recovered as much as previously expected, and prices are at record highs.

4) Coal is one of the commodities that receives less attention — despite its still-huge importance to the energy system and the fight against climate change.

For years, many have considered it to be “dead” or “dying.” At the COP26 climate change conference in 2021 in Glasgow, the world agreed to “consign coal to history.” But it’s alive, omnipotent and omnipresent. In 2024, the world consumed a record amount, and 2025 will be a pivotal year to see whether a change of trend occurs.

I’m pessimistic because China has adopted coal as the cornerstone of its energy system, with renewables as a complement. The Asian nation alone consumes 30% more coal that the rest of the world altogether, endangering any progress to stop global warming.

5) Iron ore is, alongside coal, one of those raw materials that is often overlooked.

It isn’t a mainstay of commodity investing in financial markets. But it’s key for the profitability of global mining groups and steelmakers alike. And it’s a great barometer of economic activity in China. Its price has dropped to $100 per metric ton now from more than $200 in 2021.

The new year could mark an inflection point for the commodity: Chinese steel production probably reached a zenith between 2022 and 2024, and at best, it would be able to sustain an elevated plateau in 2025. Because China nowadays produces more than half of the world’s steel, what happens there matters enormously. Crucially, iron-ore supply is going to increase next year too, including from a new source of low-cost production: Guinea in West Africa. Put the two forces together, and the iron-ore market may enter the first of several years of surpluses. Lower prices beckon in 2025.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

DDMP REIT to invest in high-growth properties

DDMP REIT, Inc. plans to invest in the long term in income-generating property assets that will provide competitive returns to investors, the listed company said in a 12-page filing outlining its three-year investment strategy sent to the Philippine Stock Exchange.

“The company will endeavor to acquire properties situated in high-growth areas, whether from the DoubleDragon Group or third parties to cater to economic growth,” the real estate investment trust company of listed property developer DoubleDragon Corp. said.

“DDMP REIT plans to add only mature real estate properties in its portfolio with stable cash flows,” it told the bourse. “It considers adding future properties that yield higher capitalization, preferably higher than the existing properties.”

DDMP REIT’s portfolio consists of three office buildings with six towers at the 4.75-hectare DD Meridian Park mixed-use development in Pasay City.

The buildings in the company’s portfolio include DoubleDragon Plaza that has four office towers, DoubleDragon Center East, and DoubleDragon Center West.

As of Sept. 30, DoubleDragon Plaza had a 70.81% occupancy rate, while DoubleDragon Center West had 94.76% occupancy. DoubleDragon Center East had full occupancy.

DDMP REIT’s net income fell 22.7% to P1.2 billion in the first nine months from a year earlier as revenue declined 18% to P1.53 billion. Rent income dropped 7.2% to P1.34 billion due to expired leases.

Costs and expenses rose 4.1% to P337.4 million due to higher taxes, licenses, and outsourced manpower services. — RMDO

S&P 500’s 2024 rally shocked forecasters expecting it to fizzle

BY THIS time last year, the stock market’s rally had blown past even the most optimistic targets and Wall Street forecasters were convinced it couldn’t keep up the dizzying pace.

So as strategists at Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. As the Federal Reserve shifted to cutting interest rates, Treasuries were seen as ripe to give equities a run for their money.

What followed, instead, delivered another humbling to Wall Street prognosticators who have been caught off guard by the market’s twists and turns ever since the end of the pandemic.

Rather than lose steam, equity prices continued to soar higher. By late January, the S&P 500 had already surpassed the average year-end target from strategists. It went on to hit one record high after another and is heading to a 25% gain in 2024, capping the strongest back-to-back annual runs since the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

“There is an element of miraculousness to it,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, who by mid-year abandoned his call for a slight dip in the S&P 500 and was the first among major strategists to introduce a year-end target of 6,000. “Trends can go on longer and go farther than one could ever imagine.”

The continuation of that trend is a testament to how much the post-pandemic economy has confounded forecasters by steadily expanding even after the Fed pushed interest rates to a more than two-decade high.

As 2023 was drawing to a close — and bonds were rallying strongly on speculation that the central bank would need to start easing policy aggressively — fixed-income strategists were predicting that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield would drift lower to end this year around 3.8%. It has risen to eclipse 4.6% instead.

The economy’s strength has supported the stock market’s rise by trickling down to corporate profits. At the same time, excitement about AI continued to push up the stocks of big tech companies like Alphabet, Inc., Amazon.com, Inc., Apple, Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Nvidia Corp. The rally got another boost from Donald J. Trump’s presidential victory by promising tax cuts and corporate-friendly policies.

The result has largely extinguished bearish sentiment on Wall Street and driven some strategists to capitulate by ditching pessimistic calls.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson — who in 2023 delivered a drumbeat of warnings that equities were poised to slide — by this May turned positive on stocks. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic, who had predicted the S&P 500 would tumble 12% by December, left the bank in mid-2024 after two decades at the firm. In late November, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, who now heads JPMorgan’s market research team, dropped the previously bearish target and predicted the S&P 500 will keep climbing next year.

Mr. Lakos-Bujas said some of the team’s missteps reflected the difficulty of anticipating the surge of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which account for an outsized chunk of the S&P 500’s gains. But he said there’s solid reasons for the optimism from here, citing an easing Fed, the change of power in Washington, and a Chinese government that’s eager to keep its economy humming.

“We have effectively three puts in place,” said Mr. Lakos-Bujas, who expects the S&P 500 to rise to 6,500 next year, a gain of about 9% from Friday’s level. That “shifted our thinking process in terms of risky assets and equities.”

It wasn’t only the pessimists who were caught off guard. Almost every top strategist tracked by Bloomberg boosted their S&P 500 targets at least once this year after the index shot through them.

When the targets were first published in late 2023, even the most bullish forecasters at the time — Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus — expected the S&P 500 to rise only about 9% to 5,200, a level that it surpassed in less than three months.

There were some moments when it looked like the stock market was due for a reversal but they proved short lived. While the S&P 500 slid from mid-July through early August, it soon resumed its march higher as worries about tech earnings faded. A selloff sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone this month also quickly reversed.

The steep climb, of course, has sown some concern that valuations have become too stretched. That’s particularly acute for companies tied to AI, given uncertainty about whether the technology will live up to its promise. And the market’s embrace of Mr. Trump’s victory ignores the risks posed by his tariff and tax-cut plans, which could rekindle inflation and stymie global trade.

But few are calling for the rally to end. In fact, none of the 19 strategists tracked by Bloomberg expects the S&P 500 to decline next year. Even the lowest forecast sees the benchmark holding steady; the most optimistic — at 7,100 — implies a 19% rally.

Binky Chadha, chief US equity and global strategist at Deutsche Bank, has been among the bullish cohort on Wall Street for the past three years. His 2025 target of 7,000 points is among the most optimistic, reflecting his expectation for continued economic growth and low unemployment. He said he’s not worried about being caught offsides.

Forecasting markets means taking it “a year at a time,” he said. “In a typical year, equities will pull back by 3% to 5% every two to three months. Does that mean you shouldn’t buy equities? No, you should because they’re going back up.” Bloomberg

Philippines projected to be the 23rd largest economy in 2039

The Philippines is projected to be the 23rd largest economy by 2039 according to the latest edition of the World Economic League Table published by London-based think tank Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The projection is a significant improvement for the country, jumping 10 places from 33rd rank out of 189 economies in 2024.

Philippines projected to be the 23<sup>rd</sup> largest economy in 2039

Marcos, Duterte second-half trust ratings drop

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and Vice-President (VP) Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio’s trust ratings in the latter half of 2024 dropped after they failed to address critical national issues, according to the latest survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS).

The survey, conducted in partnership with Stratbase Group, revealed that net trust in President Marcos went down to +29 in December from +42 in July.

More than half of respondents, or 54%, said they have “Much Trust” in President Marcos, down from 64% in July. Those who were undecided about their trust in the President rose to 19% in December from 17% in September and 14% in July, while those with “Little Trust” were unchanged at 25% from September.

Regionally, the President’s most significant decline was in Mindanao, where respondents with “Much Trust” plummeted to 33% in December from 50% in July. Conversely, those with “Little Trust” increased to 42% from 33%.

Stratbase President Victor Andres C. Manhit noted the survey results reflect the public’s call for the government to prioritize addressing pressing national issues, particularly inflation and job creation.

“There is a need for the government to continuously implement strategic interventions and bolster awareness about significant government efforts that aim to address key socio-economic concerns, especially among the youth and highly educated groups,” he said in a statement on Monday.

“As inflation and livelihood persist as pressing issues, the administration must focus on delivering clear and impactful solutions that resonate with the daily lives of Filipinos. For Filipinos, economic performance and good governance, remain the most compelling proof points for boosting public trust.”

The survey also found that Vice-President Duterte’s net trust rating suffered, declining to +23 in December from +45 in July, which Mr. Manhit linked to the unexplained spending of confidential and intelligence funds (CIF) by her office and the Department of Education, she previously headed.

Her refusal to answer questions on CIF fund use has “significantly eroded the public’s confidence” in her, he added.

The share of respondents with “Much Trust” in Ms. Duterte went down to 52% from 65% over the same period, while those with “Little Trust” in her rose to 29% in December from 27% in September and 21% in July.

Those who were undecided increased to 17% this month from 16% in September and 13% in July.

Survey results indicated that the sharp decline in Ms. Duterte’s trust ratings was largely concentrated in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Balance Luzon.

In NCR, the percentage of respondents with “Much Trust” in her dropped significantly to 41% in December from 62% in July. While those with “Little Trust” increased by 13%, rising to 40% in December from 27%.

Similarly, in Balance Luzon, the number of respondents with “Much Trust” in Ms. Duterte fell by 22% over the six months, while those with “Little Trust” grew by 13%.

Despite these declines, Ms. Duterte’s overall trust rating is being pulled by slower decreases in trust levels in the Visayas and the enduring loyalty of respondents from Mindanao.

In the Visayas, the percentage of respondents with “Much Trust” declined to 57% from 61% over the six-month period, while it climbed to 83% from 82% in July among respondents in Mindanao.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the decline in the two top officials may not yet reflect the leadership preferences of the public.

“We are still very much clientelistic especially when you go down local, and Marcos Jr. is likely to survive further weathering if his government can deliver on basic necessities, actually reverse policy disappointments, and remain consistent on his foreign policy,” he told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“Like it or not, VP Sara has lost the narrative against her, not helped by her camp’s sheer obstinacy and media illiteracy, which is a shock considering how her father exploited it to the hilt during his tenure.”

The survey, conducted from December 12 to 18, involved face-to-face interviews with 2,160 respondents and has a margin of error of ±2%.

Midterm polls, Marcos and Duterte rift cost Filipinos key reforms, analysts say

PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

KEY POLICY reforms in education, health, and labor among other sectors have been “disregarded” as focus shifted to the 2025 midterm elections and the widening rift between two of the country’s most influential political families, analysts said.

Political observers noted that incumbent politicians this year were more concerned with securing reelection and the deepening political feud between President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and Vice-President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio instead of the policy agenda.

“Many opportunities for reform and lasting changes were disregarded as they focused more on controlling people through excessive allocations that are translated as favors to some and dole-outs to ordinary people,” Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Mr. Aguirre said that Filipinos and policymakers alike were “distracted” by the Marcos-Duterte strife this year, resulting in key policies for the “education, health, labor, and energy sectors” taking a backseat.

“We have yet to see long-term and systemic reforms and changes that would really lead to economic growth and development,” he said.

“Most government initiatives and programs, such as Ayuda Para sa Kapos ang Kita Program and other forms of cash assistance given by local government units, are inherently dole-outs,” he added. “Billions of pesos are lost every fiscal year because of this kind of spending that is still endemic in our political institutions and government bureaucracy.”

This year can be described as “an aggravation of oligarchic politics and nationalization of clientelism,” Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University, said in a Facebook chat.

Meanwhile, Dennis C. Coronacion, who chairs the University of Sto. Tomas Political Science Department, said that this year’s political events were shaped by a few elites with a stake in the developments.

“Our political landscape has always been dominated by political dynasties. Thus, our political events in 2024 have been shaped and dictated by their interests,” he said in a Facebook chat.

PIVOTAL YEAR
Next year could be a pivotal period for the government of Mr. Marcos as Filipinos are set to elect half of the influential 24-seat Senate, and a new set of party-list and district representatives.

“The Marcos Jr. administration could make 2025 a pivotal year if it could crowd out the Dutertes and reinforce its hold on the presidential bandwagon,” Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo, said in a Facebook chat.

Incumbent presidents risk losing their political clout during midterm elections as voters get a chance to shape the composition of both chambers of Congress, which is currently in favor of Mr. Marcos.

“The midterm elections are always a validation and an assessment of the incumbent administration,” Edmund S. Tayao, president of Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, said in a Viber message.

The Marcos administration would need to show “strength” in the months leading up to the election to bolster its perception to Filipino voters, Maria Ela L. Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, said in a Viber message.

“The administration has to show its strength as well as provide some level of satisfaction as far as people’s perspectives are concerned. It should not simply rely on patronage and ayuda (aid),” she said. “There is growing discontent on the part of people even in surveys.”

Despite a dip in trust ratings for the country’s top officials in the latter half of 2024, a Social Weather Survey revealed that 54% of respondents still trust Mr. Marcos as president, while 52% of Filipinos trust Ms. Duterte.

The voting preferences of Filipinos won’t likely be affected by issues that hounded 2024, such as the controversial 2025 national budget and the feud between the Marcoses and Dutertes, according to Mr. Borja.

“Unless these issues are pinned on specific candidates or end up into severe crises that can affect a person’s everyday life, then I don’t think it would have much impact on voting preference,” he said.

But it remains likely that Filipino voters would choose candidates offering dole-outs, Mr. Juliano said. “The public remains hostage to clientelism and ‘bring home the bacon politics’ in their voting choices.”

While there could be political shifts after the midterm elections, its outcome remains bleak as political dynasties continue to dominate the ballots, according to Mr. Tayao.

“There may be change but for the worse.”

Congress told to revisit wage-setting system, EPIRA reforms

STOCK PHOTO | Image by wal_172619 from Pixabay

By John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporter

PHILIPPINE LAWMAKERS should review the country’s wage-setting system and consider amending the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 when Congress resumes session on Jan. 13 to ensure workers’ adequate pay amid rising costs of living and affordable power costs for employers, according to labor analysts.

“Congress should prioritize passing the security of tenure bill, approving a P150 wage increase, and reviewing the process for setting minimum wages to ensure they reflect the cost of living and workers’ rights,” Sentro ng mga Nagkakaisa at Progresibong Manggagawa (SENTRO) Secretary-General Josua T. Mata said in a Viber message.

In February, the Senate passed on the third and final reading a P100 across-the-board increase for private-sector workers. The House of Representatives has yet to pass a counterpart bill.

Labor groups have said the country’s wage-setting system has failed since many workers still live in poverty even after paltry minimum wage increases.

The National Capital Region’s wage board in June approved a hike to the minimum wage by P35 pesos to P645, which took effect on July 17.

“While there are many significant reforms that need attention, focusing on these measures would be a meaningful way for Congress to conclude its sessions and leave a positive legacy.”

He also said that amending or repealing the EPIRA law could pave the way for reliable and affordable power costs for consumers and businesses.

Energy Undersecretary Sharon S. Garin earlier urged senators to amend the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) charter to allow price increases without regulatory approval as long as these fall within a set benchmark or bracket.

This would allow the ERC to do away with the cumbersome approval process that power distributors have complained about, she told a Senate energy committee hearing that is looking at changes to the 23-year-old EPIRA.

Renato B. Magtubo, a former congressman and chairman of Partidong Manggagawa added that stronger protection measures must be implemented to address the plight of contractual workers through a security of tenure law.

“The proliferation of labor contracting practices in which workers employed by labor contractors are supplied to principal employers as agency workers affects workers’ productivity since this circumvents the right to regular employment,” the former lawmaker said in a Viber message.

Mr. Magtubo added that Congress should also legislate measures to grow and expand the local economy by supporting farmers and local manufacturers. He said this could boost agricultural production and make local manufacturers competitive.

OP gets P5B more for ASEAN Summit chairmanship in 2026

THE Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit is being held in Laos. — REVOLI S. CORTEZ/PPA POOL

THE Office of the President (OP) on Monday confirmed that it had gotten a P5-billion increase in the 2025 national budget as the Philippines is set to host the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2026.   

“The NEP (National Expenditure Program) was followed but P5.2 billion was added (OP’s budget) due to ASEAN 2026,” Executive Secretary Lucas P. Bersamin told reporters in mixed English and Filipino on the sidelines of the signing ceremony for the 2025 General Appropriations Act.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique A. Manalo had earlier said the country may raise its South China Sea dispute with China during the Summit.

“Our President agreed to host ASEAN because we could not allow it not to happen,” he said in Filipino. “That’s a very important part of our international relations.”

The Philippine government’s preparations for the ASEAN Summit in 2026 will begin next year, he noted.   

‘’After the submission of the NEP, we asked Congress for a supplemental fund in addition to what we proposed for the OP in the NEP to the tune of P5.2 billion for 2025,’’ Mr. Bersamin said.   

The OP proposed a P10.5-billion budget for 2025, 1.88% lower than its current budget.

After the Senate’s ratification of the 2025 budget bill, Senate Committee on Finance Chairperson Senator Grace L. Poe disclosed that senators had met with Mr. Bersamin to discuss the Philippines’ hosting of ASEAN in 2026.   

Citing him, Ms. Poe said ASEAN hosts usually have to prepare a venue for about 400 meetings, on top of security and housing for the main delegates and their staff. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Magnitude 5.6 quake jolts Luzon

A MAGNITUDE 5.6 earthquake struck Luzon in the Philippines on Monday, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) said.

The quake was at a depth of 10 kilometers (6.2 miles), GFZ said.

Philippine seismology agency Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said the tremor struck the northern town of Bangui in Ilocos province. The agency was not expecting damage, but said aftershocks are likely from the shallow quake.

Phivolcs also reported the earthquake triggered by tectonic plate movement was felt in Sinait and Cabugao, Ilocos Sur at Intensity V, while Intensity IV was felt in Sarrat, Ilocos Norte, Claveria, Cagayan and Tubo in Abra.

It was also felt at Intensity III in Lacub town, also in Abra; Intensity II in Aparri and Lasam towns in Cagayan.

Earthquakes are common in the Philippines, which is in the Pacific Ocean’s “Ring of Fire,” where volcanic activity and earthquakes frequently occur. — Artemio A. Dumlao with Reuters