VATICAN CITY — Black smoke billowed from a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel on Thursday, signaling that the cardinals locked in a conclave have not yet chosen a new pope to guide the Roman Catholic Church.

Thousands of faithful gathered in St. Peter’s Square waited for smoke to pour from the flue on the chapel’s roof, which it did shortly before noon (1000 GMT; 6 p.m. Manila time).

The 133 cardinals under the age of 80 began the heavily ritualised and secret process on Wednesday, shut away in complete isolation as they pick a successor to the late Pope Francis.

They burn the ballot papers and mix them with chemicals to show how proceedings are going — black signaling no pope and white announcing a new pontiff.

The cardinals held an initial inconclusive vote on Wednesday evening. They are scheduled to hold up to two more ballots on Thursday afternoon, with possible smoke signals expected some time after 5:30 p.m. (1530 GMT; 11:30 p.m. Manila time).

The red-hatted “princes of the Church” will keep on voting up to four times a day until someone wins a two-thirds majority.

No pope in modern times has been elected on the first attempt, so Wednesday’s black smoke was widely expected. But given recent history, a final result is possible from the second day.

Francis, the first pope from Latin America, was elected on the evening of the second day of the last conclave, held in 2013, as was his predecessor, Benedict XVI, in 2005. — Reuters

MUMBAI — The latest conflict between India and Pakistan may impact New Delhi’s efforts to pitch itself as a safe haven for foreign investors amid global economic turmoil — but not much, investors and analysts said on Wednesday, as tensions ratcheted up between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

India’s $4-trillion economy has limited direct trade with Pakistan, and even its overnight cross-border missile strikes had little immediate impact on local equity, currency and bond markets, on the view that full-fledged conflict is unlikely.

“If there is a cessation of hostilities like there should be, pragmatically and practically, the investment climate may not actually be harmed,” said Ajay Marwaha, head of fixed income at Mumbai-headquartered investment house Nuvama Group.

Previous conflicts have not had a lasting impact on Indian assets, Citibank analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday.

In the last such flare-up with Pakistan, in February 2019, the Indian rupee held steady and bond yields rose 15 basis points over that month but retreated later.

In June 2020, when fighting broke out between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan valley, the rupee weakened 1% but regained ground as the two sides disengaged, Citi analysts said.

Since US President Donald J. Trump unveiled a slate of huge tariffs on his country’s trading partners, Indian markets have in fact performed well.

“The Indian market had begun to outperform on the back of the perception that there is some insulation from Trump tariffs given the strength of domestic consumption and a clear signal of monetary loosening from the central bank,” said Sat Dhura, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

He acknowledged that: “Recent events are likely to keep foreign investors away,” but added that local investment flows are likely to be sticky, helping serve as a support to the markets.

India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy with the central bank forecasting gross domestic product growth of 6.5% this financial year. It is also among the best performing of the world’s big stock markets since early April, when Washington announced reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners, with the benchmark Nifty 50 rising 4.6% since then.

Foreign investors, who had heavily sold Indian stocks from last October to March of this year, turned buyers in April and early May purchasing about $1.5 billion. They remained sellers of Indian bonds, offloading $1.7 billion since the start of April.

UAE-based asset manager NAV Capital reckons that the geopolitical flare-up may temper immediate foreign portfolio flows into India but it expects global investors to remain invested in the country unless the latest conflict spirals.

FOCUS ON TRADE DEALS
The focus, analysts said, remains on trade deals.

India sealed a long-negotiated trade agreement with the UK on Tuesday and discussions are ongoing for a bilateral trade agreement with the US.

“While sentiments are likely to be jittery in the immediate term, these tensions are unlikely to derail the medium-term appeal of the Indian economy,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank in Singapore.

More “substantial developments” like the just-concluded India-UK trade deal, the impending agreement with the US and the central bank’s dovish policies will dictate the path of India’s growth trade outlook, Mr. Rao said.

As part of these trade negotiations, India plans to bring down high tariffs for raw materials which have prevented large-scale manufacturing to move to the country.

The impact of the conflict between India and Pakistan on any potential longer-term investment “may not be very much,” said Subhash Chandra Garg, a former top government bureaucrat.

The areas bordering Pakistan are in the north and west of India but most foreign investment for manufacturing facilities is centered in southern and central India, Mr. Garg noted. — Reuters

WASHINGTON — A US judge said any effort by the Trump administration to deport migrants to Libya would clearly violate a prior court order barring officials from swiftly deporting migrants to countries other than their own without first weighing whether they risk persecution or torture if sent there.

US District Judge Brian Murphy issued an order restricting their removal on Wednesday after Reuters, citing three US officials, reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration may for the first time deport migrants to Libya despite previous US condemnation of Libya’s harsh treatment of detainees.

Two of the officials said the US military could fly the migrants to the North African country as soon as Wednesday, but stressed that plans could change.

Reuters could not determine how many migrants would be sent to Libya or the nationalities of those the administration was eyeing for deportation, including whether any were Libyan nationals. The relatives of one Mexican national told Reuters he had been instructed to sign a document allowing for his deportation to the African nation.

Immigration rights advocates said in court filings that individuals potentially subject to deportation to Libya also included Filipino, Laotian and Vietnamese migrants.

When asked about the planned deportations, President Donald J. Trump said he did not know whether they were happening.

“You’ll have to ask Homeland Security,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday.

The Pentagon referred queries to the White House. The White House and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) did not respond to requests for comment.

A State Department spokesperson said: “We do not discuss the details of our diplomatic communications with other governments.”

Libya’s Government of National Unity said on Wednesday it rejected the use of Libyan territory as a destination for deporting migrants without its knowledge or consent. It also said there was no coordination with the United States regarding the transfer of migrants.

Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, which controls eastern Libya, also rejected the idea, saying in a statement that taking in migrants deported from the US “violates the sovereignty of the homeland.”

After news broke of the potential flight to Libya, lawyers for a group of migrants pursuing a class action lawsuit made an emergency request that Mr. Murphy block migrants from being deported to Libya or any country en route, including Saudi Arabia, without ensuring their due process rights were met.

Mr. Murphy, who was appointed by Democratic President Joseph R. Biden, wrote: “If there is any doubt — the Court sees none — the allegedly imminent removals, as reported by news agencies and as Plaintiffs seek to corroborate with class-member accounts and public information, would clearly violate this Court’s Order.”

The administration had recently argued that Mr. Murphy’s prior order only applied to DHS and not the Department of Defense, which US officials told Reuters would be involved in flying migrants to Libya.

Murphy said on Wednesday that DHS could not “evade” his order by transferring responsibility to the Defense Department or any other agency.

Mr. Trump, a Republican who made immigration a major issue during his election campaign, has launched aggressive enforcement action since taking office, surging troops to the southern border and pledging to deport millions of immigrants in the United States illegally.

As of Monday, the Trump administration had deported 152,000 people, according to DHS.

The administration has tried to encourage migrants to leave voluntarily by threatening steep fines, trying to strip away legal status and deporting migrants to notorious prisons in Guantanamo Bay and El Salvador.

MEXICO TO LIBYA
Family members of a Mexican national said they feared he could be deported from the United States to Libya after he called them on Tuesday from immigration detention in Texas, saying he had been told to sign a document allowing for his deportation to the African nation.

Valentin Yah, 39, said several others of various nationalities at the immigration detention center in Pearsall, Texas, had been told to sign the same document, according to two of his family members.

His family members, who asked not to be identified for fear of retaliation, said he was pleading with immigration officials to be sent to Mexico on Tuesday, only about 100 miles (160 kilometers) from where he was detained.

“He’s literally closer to his hometown in Mexico and begging them to send him back,” one of his family members said.

Mr. Yah, an Indigenous Mexican from Yucatan, has a conviction for sexual abuse and served about 15 years in prison in the United States before being detained by immigration authorities, records show. He was ordered deported by an immigration judge in 2009, records show.

LIFE-THREATENING
In its annual human rights report last year before Mr. Trump took office in January, the US State Department criticized Libya’s “harsh and life-threatening prison conditions.” The department advises US citizens against visiting due to “crime, civil unrest, kidnapping and armed conflict.”

Libya has had little peace since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising, and it split in 2014 between eastern and western factions, with rival administrations governing in each area. Major fighting ended with a truce in 2020, but the underlying political dispute remains and there are sporadic clashes.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week hinted that Washington was looking to expand the number of countries where it may deport people beyond El Salvador.

“The further away from America, the better,” Mr. Rubio said at a cabinet meeting at the White House last Wednesday. — Reuters