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Peso sinks as OPEC+ calls off output talks

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THE PESO extended its losing streak versus the dollar on Wednesday amid a deadlock in oil output talks and growing concerns over new variants of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

The local unit closed at P49.79 per dollar on Wednesday, down by 29 centavos from its P49.50 finish in Tuesday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

This was the peso’s weakest close since its P49.82 finish on July 1, 2020, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said.

The peso opened Wednesday’s session at P49.70 per dollar, which was also its intraday best. Meanwhile, its weakest showing was at P49.91 against the greenback.

Dollars traded decreased to $937.90 million on Wednesday from $1.068 billion on Tuesday.

A trader attributed the peso’s weakness to the failure of the world’s largest oil exporters to reach a deal on output quotas.

“The peso weakened anew from safe-haven demand amid the lingering uncertainty in ongoing discussions among OPEC nations,” the trader said in an email.

Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) called off oil output talks on Monday after clashing last week when the United Arab Emirates rejected a proposed eight-month extension to output curbs, meaning no deal to boost production has been agreed, Reuters reported.

The White House on Tuesday said they will be closely monitoring discussions among OPEC+ key players, noting they were “encouraged after conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates”.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ricafort said the peso weakened due to concerns over the more infectious Delta variant of COVID-19, which has resulted in the reimposition of strict lockdowns in some countries.

For Thursday, Mr. Ricafort gave a forecast range of P49.65 to P49.90 per dollar, while the trader expects the local unit to move between P49.70 to P49.90. — LWTN with Reuters

PSEi drops on concerns over COVID-19 variants

COURTESY OF PHILIPPINE STOCK EXCHANGE, INC.

PHILIPPINE shares declined on Wednesday, along with other markets in the region, as investors pocketed their gains and with concerns over new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) variants clouding market sentiment.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) declined by 49.43 points or 0.7% to close at 6,943 on Wednesday, while the broader all shares index lost 26.50 points or 0.61% to 4,272.16.

“Market continued on profit taking due to lackluster news on the local front and with most Asian markets [down],” Diversified Securities, Inc. Equity Trader Aniceto K. Pangan said in a text message. “Most investors are on the sidelines with value turnover below [the] daily average of seven billion and foreign investors on the selling mode.”

Value turnover decreased to P4.46 billion with 1.70 billion shares traded on Wednesday from the P5.1 billion with 2.51 billion issues seen on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, net foreign selling surged to P211.97 million on Wednesday from P37.55 million the previous day.

“Delta and Lambda virus variant, low vaccine supply, and peso weakness toward P50 on the dollar have prompted investors’ profit taking. But recent government dollar borrowing should temper dollar demand surge while vaccine supply should improve as more of it arrive this month,” First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said in a Viber message.

“These worries are making the PSEi look very pricey at PE (price-to-earnings ratio) of 19.67x on this year’s earnings with much of the positive news flow on inflation, unemployment and consumer confidence fully digested upon breakout above 7,000,” she added.

The Lambda COVID-19 strain is said to be more dangerous than the Delta variant, which is already a more transmissible version of the disease. The Lambda variant has been detected in over 30 countries in the past month.

The Philippines has not yet reported any Lambda COVID-19 infection. However, it logged 19 cases of the Delta variant as of Monday.

The country expects to receive around 30 million COVID-19 jabs in July and August.

All sectoral indices closed in the red on Wednesday. Services went down by 21.09 points or 1.29% to 1,606.97; mining and oil dropped 97.06 points or 0.98% to 9,770.84; holding firms shed 53.65 points or 0.76% to finish at 6,956.88; financials inched down by 9.66 points or 0.63% to 1,502.76; industrials lost 53.39 points or 0.54% to 9,684.85; and property declined by 16.30 points or 0.48% to 3,351.95.

Decliners beat advancers, 127 versus 59, while 57 names remained unchanged.

For today, investors will continue to monitor economic data releases amid a lack of fresh leads.

“[Market will move] most probably sideways with positive bias if industrial production goes up for the month of May,” Diversified Securities’ Mr. Pangan said. — Keren Concepcion G. Valmonte

Meat imports up by 44.3% in H1

MEAT IMPORTS in the first half rose 44.3% year on year to 581,827.61 metric tons (MT) led by pork, buffalo, beef, and turkeys, the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) said.

The BAI said pork imports for the period rose 175.8% year on year to 277,850.59 MT.

Buffalo imports increased 102.9% year on year to 27,279.1 MT, while turkey imports rose 25% to 844.03 MT.

Beef imports rose 0.7% to 83,347.06 MT.

Chicken imports fell 6% to 192,132 MT.

Imports of mechanically deboned meat (MDM) of chicken accounted for 52.2% or 100,253.78 MT of total chicken imports.  

MDM is used by processors in products likes hotdogs and chicken nuggets.

Chicken MDM imports fell 21.5% year on year compared to 127,714.8 MT in 2020, despite taking up more than half of total chicken imports.

Lamb imports fell 75.6% to 319.44 MT while duck imports dropped 35.6% to 55.39 MT.

Meat Importers and Traders Association President Jesus C. Cham said by mobile phone that higher pork imports reflect anticipation of growing consumer demand.  

“On the other hand, strong buffalo and turkey import indicate the processors (are) searching for alternatives to chicken MDM,” Mr. Cham said.

Mr. Cham said the slow reopening of the economy is still taking a toll on importers.

“This is due to a steady, albeit delayed, influx of products, whereas consumers apparently are not spending as much. Especially now we have entered the third quarter — the traditional low season. Further, restaurants are a mixed bag as there are cautious re-openings together with permanent closures,” Mr. Cham said.  

The government is relying on lower tariffs to boost import volumes, particularly pork, in order to augment supply after the hog inventory was depleted by the African Swine Fever outbreak.

Recently, the Bureau of Customs estimated the foregone revenue from lower tariffs at P1.356 billion on imports between April 9 and June 11.

Executive Order (EO) No. 134, signed by President Rodrigo R. Duterte on May 15, lowered the tariffs on pork imports for one year.  

EO 134 cut tariffs on pork imports within the minimum access volume (MAV) quota to 10% in the first three months and up to 15% in the following nine months.

Meanwhile, tariff rates for pork imports outside the MAV quota were lowered to 20% and 25% during the first three months and subsequent nine months, respectively.  

After one year, MAV pork imports will be charged 30% while out-of-quota pork imports will pay 40%.

Mr. Duterte also signed EO 133 which increased the MAV quota for pork imports to 254,210 MT from 54,210 MT.

MAV is a commitment by a government to import certain volumes of agricultural commodities at a favorable tariff, and is adopted by participants in the World Trade Organization system. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

MSMEs reporting sales declines top 50% in June, off 90% peak

PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

AROUND HALF of small businesses reported declining sales in June, compared to the high of 90% reported in July 2020, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said.

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez, in a presentation to the Senate committee on trade Wednesday, said 53.8% of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are still experiencing sales declines due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mr. Lopez said that he hopes the government can further encourage central bank-supervised financial institutions to continue to provide relief measures to clients by renewing, restructuring, or extending loans.

Legislation that supports rent relief, loan repayment moratorium, or project funding is also important for business recovery, he added.

According to the DTI, 10% of MSMEs were not operating as of last month, based on 33,145 respondents surveyed.

The percentage of closed businesses fluctuates as restrictions are loosened or tightened. Around 16% of 24,087 businesses had closed operations in May.

The number was 4.3% in March, also the month when restrictions on business activity were reimposed as COVID-19 cases surged, Mr. Lopez said.

“Based on anecdotes, some that are closed have shifted (to other) businesses. They kept their companies closed because those are the businesses that are not thriving under a pandemic,” he said. “They look for other sources of income and therefore they have to operate another business. They pivoted and changed their business model.”

The department, he said, continues to receive increasing new-business registrations. — Jenina P. Ibañez

Finance dep’t says manageable fiscal deficit, BoP keys to recovery

PHILSTAR

THE DEPARTMENT of Finance (DoF) said the balance of payments (BoP) and the budget deficit need to be kept at manageable levels to help the economy recover.

The DoF made the statement in an economic bulletin issued Wednesday, noting the importance of keeping economic fundamentals sound and further signaling its wariness of aggressive stimulus spending being advocated in Congress, which have the potential to significantly raise borrowing.

According to the central bank, the BoP, a measure of outgoing and incoming funds in transactions with the rest of the world, was in deficit by $2.8 billion in the first quarter, against the year-earlier deficit of $68 million.

The current account, which nets out the short-term payments that need to be made against short-term inflows, swung to a $614-million deficit in the quarter from a surplus of $225 million a year earlier, after imports rose by 2.2% year on year while exports dipped by 0.6%.

“This indicates that the economy is back to being a slight net borrower instead of a net lender,” the DoF said.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its BoP projection for the year to a $7.1-billion surplus from its $6.2-billion estimate previously, on expectations of improving economies worldwide.

The government’s budget deficit rose 0.7% to P566.2 billion in the five months to May as the double-digit surge in revenue outpaced total spending.

The government aims to post 6-7% economic growth this year.

To further support the recovery, it said inflation should also remain within the 2-4% target range of the central bank, allowing the peso to trade at competitive levels.

Headline inflation eased to a six-month low of 4.1% in June, from 4.5% in May. The year-earlier level was 2.5%.

Economic managers expect the peso to trade between P48 and P53 against the dollar this year.

The DoF has said the ongoing vaccination program and relaxation of quarantine restrictions will prop up growth further. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Undersea cable damage disrupts power link between Negros, Cebu

NGCP FB PAGE

THE NATIONAL Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) said that transmission capacity is currently limited between Negros and Cebu after a portion of its 138-kiloVolt high voltage submarine cable connecting the two islands was damaged by dredging works performed by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH).

The cable has two circuits with a capacity of 90 megawatts (MW) each or a total of 180 MW.

“Because of the damage to one of the two circuits, transmission capacity is currently limited to 90 MW between the two islands,” the system operator said in a statement Wednesday.

The NGCP said its submarine cable was severed due to the DPWH’s dredging activities along the Bio-os River in Negros Oriental on June 15.

“During the dredging and re-channeling activities of the DPWH, the operator hit the submarine cable causing (an) oil spill. (Some) 495 liters of mineral oil was spilled, which NGCP reported to the Coast Guard and to the DENR (Department of Environment and Natural Resources) Region 7,” the grid operator said.

“NGCP has requested the Local Government of Amlan and the DPWH to temporarily stop their operations, and immediately implemented measures to contain the oil spill,” it added.

The NGCP is currently coordinating with foreign technical experts on the schedule of repair works.

“It is unfortunate that this happened at such a crucial time when electricity is critical to COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) response efforts. NGCP assures its stakeholders that all hands are on deck to restore the affected facility and mitigate the impacts of the oil spill and scattered cable debris,” the company said. — Angelica Y. Yang

DBM says 85% of budget released in first half

THE DEPARTMENT of Budget and Management (DBM) said it released 85.1% of this year’s budget in the first half.

The DBM said allotment releases hit P3.833 trillion in the six months to June, against a budget of P4.5 trillion for 2021.

That leaves the DBM P673 billion to release in the second half of the year.

Releases to government agencies totaled P2.376 trillion in the six months, or 90% of the P2.637 trillion allotted for them. The DBM has P261 billion to release for the rest of the year.

Special purpose funds, or allocations for specific socioeconomic purposes had a release rate of 55% equivalent to P242.42 billion.

Special purpose funds include the budgetary support to local government units, the Contingent Fund, the Miscellaneous Personnel Benefits Fund, and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Fund.

Releases from automatic appropriations, which include retirement and life insurance premiums, internal revenue allotments, block grants and interest payments, among others, amounted to P1.01 trillion in the first half, for a release rate of 70%.

The DBM also released all of the P205.304 million left over from last year’s budget.

The P4.5-trillion budget is being positioned as a stimulus measure to help the economy bounce back from the pandemic.

The DBM is currently preparing the proposed P5-trillion 2022 budget, which is due for submission to Congress soon.

Actual spending by government agencies increased 8.8% to P1.811 trillion in the five months to May.

Infrastructure spending rose 41.3% to P332.3 billion in the five months. — Beatrice M. Laforga

NPC outlines norms for cross-border data transfer

THE NATIONAL Privacy Commission (NPC) has laid down the guidelines on cross-border data transfer standards that companies can voluntarily follow to protect customer data transferred across jurisdictions in Southeast Asia.

Businesses can voluntarily adopt model contract clauses, or legally binding contracts that protect customer data. These firms can modify the clauses to align them with their domestic privacy laws.

Companies can also adopt data management frameworks, or the non-binding guidance for ASEAN businesses to put up data management systems, the NPC said in a statement on Wednesday.

Approved in an ASEAN digital ministers meeting in January, both tools aim “to promote the growth of trade and flow of information in the ASEAN internet economy.”

Privacy Commissioner Raymund E. Liboro last month said that companies’ data privacy representatives should invest in earning certifications that would help companies build up their reputations.

The ASEAN digital economy, the commission said, has grown in response to a fast-growing internet user base that has adopted e-commerce and ride hailing platforms.

“Given the great shift to digitalization during this pandemic, the region can surely exceed the $240 billion (gross merchandise value) it is projected to attain by 2025. But as early as now, we must ensure that the Philippines will have a slice of that growth,” Mr. Liboro said in the statement.

He said businesses should use these cross-border standards to improve their competitiveness in capturing new markets.

“What companies do to safeguard their customers’ data from hacks, unauthorized access and other emerging threats is what is defining competitiveness today.”

The commission plans to launch more projects to help smaller companies hit hard by the pandemic to conform to the ASEAN standards. — Jenina P. Ibañez

DENR pushes for comprehensive reporting on wastewater discharge by ships

PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

THE ENVIRONMENT department called for more detailed monitoring of and reporting on sewage collection, treatment and disposal by ships, in aid of efforts to restore Manila Bay.

In a statement Wednesday, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) said that Undersecretary Benny D. Antiporda made the proposal in a recent meeting with the coast guard, shipyard associations and vessel owners.

“We cannot track the vessels if they discharge it within Manila Bay or outside the bay. Maybe we could come up with something that could safeguard the bay from discharges,” he was quoted as saying.

Leovigildo G. Panopio, Central Luzon Commodore of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), said that the PCG is “taking marine protection seriously.”

He said there is currently an ongoing review of the coast guard’s memorandum circulars (MCs).

PCG Lieutenant Precious Lonie Z. Omalsa said the discharge of wastewater in Manila Bay violates a PCG MC.

Under PCG MC 10-14, ships discharging treated sewage must do so at a distance of more than four nautical miles from the nearest shoreline.

Meanwhile, vessels discharging untreated wastewater must do so more than 12 nautical miles from the nearest shoreline.

Mr. Omalsa cited vessels that have discharged waste within three nautical miles of Bataan and four nautical miles of Metro Manila. — Angelica Y. Yang

Duterte signs EPIRA amendment enhancing energy panel’s powers

PHILSTAR

PRESIDENT RODRIGO R. Duterte has signed into law a bill upgrading the powers of the Joint Congressional Energy Commission (JCEC), which exercises oversight over the industry’s compliance with energy laws.

Republic Act No. 11571 amends a section in the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001, giving the JCEC the authority to conduct hearings and receive testimony, reports, and technical advice; invite or summon any public official or private citizen to testify before it; and require any person to produce records or documents the body may require.

The commission is to be assisted by a secretariat “who may be seconded from the Senate and the House of Representatives and may retain consultants.”

The secretariat is to be headed by an executive director “who has sufficient background and competence on the policies and issues relating to electricity industry reforms.”

“To carry out its powers and functions, the initial sum of P25,000,000.00 shall be charged against the current appropriations of the Senate,” it said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

New VAT on exporters — a value-added cost?

Job losses for 400,000 OFWs and 4.5 million working domestically, a GDP contraction of about 9.6% year on year, and an exports decline of 10% were just some of the adverse effects of COVID-19 last year on the Philippine economy.

Fortunately, recent forecasts have economic activity improving during the second half of 2021, while exports are rebounding. However, the pandemic continues to dampen recovery prospects.

In an article last week, my colleague wrote about the implications of new Revenue Regulations (RR) No. 9-2021, implementing a significant shift in the VAT rules under the Republic Act 10963, otherwise known the TRAIN law, which hopefully will not pour more cold water on the recovery of our exporters.

Under the TRAIN law, transactions previously treated as VAT zero-rated are subject to 12% VAT once the government has established an enhanced VAT refund system with a 90-day turnaround for granting VAT refunds, and has fully paid in cash the VAT refund of all pending claims as of Dec. 31, 2017 by Dec. 31, 2019.

Under the RR which took effect on June 27, some indirect exports which were previously considered zero-rated export sales are now subject to 12% VAT.

RR 9-2021, which took effect on June 27, was followed by a Tax Advisory from the BIR that it will no longer accept applications for VAT zero-rating. Consequently, local VAT suppliers are now imposing 12% VAT on their sale of goods or services to ecozone enterprises (including those registered with the Philippine Economic Zone Authority or PEZA).

However, the RR appears to have been issued without considering the provisions of the newly enacted RA 11534, otherwise known as the CREATE law, which retains the incentive of registered business enterprises (RBEs) with respect to VAT zero-rating on local purchases under Section 294(E) in relation to Section 295(D) of the National Internal Revenue Code.

The recently issued Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) of the CREATE law reiterates such VAT zero-rating on local purchases, but limits this to purchases of goods and services “directly and exclusively used” in the registered project or activity of the export enterprises. It further clarifies that the VAT zero-rating on purchases applies to those necessary for the registered activity or activity without which the registered project or activity cannot be carried out.

To address the adverse consequences of RR 9-2021, the BIR should clarify what purchases actually qualify for VAT zero-rating, with due consideration of the CREATE law. Otherwise, the 12% VAT passed on by the local suppliers, which may otherwise be considered as VAT zero-rated, will become an unnecessary cost of the ecozone exporters. This is particularly true for non-VAT registered PEZA entities (i.e., subject to 5% gross income tax) or even those that are VAT-registered but reporting their export sales as VAT-exempt sales or not subject to VAT pursuant to the legal fiction that ecozones are outside the Philippine customs territory. Such entities will be unable to recover the same through the VAT refund/credit route. The additional cost will then make our exporters less competitive in the international market.

In coming up with the list of purchases entitled to VAT zero-rating, the BIR may consider applying the definition of “cost of goods manufactured and sold” and “cost of services,” under Section 27(E) of the Tax Code, which reads as follows:

(4) Gross Income Defined. — For purposes of applying the minimum corporate income tax provided under Subsection (E) hereof, the termgross income’ shall mean gross sales less sales returns, discounts and allowances and cost of goods sold. Cost of goods sold’ shall include all business expenses directly incurred to produce the merchandise to bring them to their present location and use.

xxx

For a manufacturing concern, cost of goods manufactured and sold’ shall include all costs of production of finished goods, such as raw materials used, direct labor and manufacturing overhead, freight cost, insurance premiums and other costs incurred to bring the raw materials to the factory or warehouse.

In the case of taxpayers engaged in the sale of service, gross income’ means gross receipts less sales returns, allowances, discounts and cost of services. Cost of services’ shall mean all direct costs and expenses necessarily incurred to provide the services required by the customers and clients including (A) salaries and employee benefits of personnel, consultants and specialists directly rendering the service and (B) cost of facilities directly utilized in providing the service such as depreciation or rental of equipment used and cost of supplies: xxx.

Although the foregoing provision specifically pertains to the computation of gross income for purposes of applying the minimum corporate income tax (MCIT), this section of the Tax Code has been cited by the courts in determining the deductions from gross income for purposes of computing the 5% gross income tax (GIT), as in the case of East Asia Utilities Corporation vs. Commissioner of Internal Revenue, CTA case no. 8179 dated May 21, 2014 (which was later affirmed by the Supreme Court in November 2020).

It may also be argued that the terms “cost of goods manufactured and sold” and “cost of services” could equate to the goods and services “directly and exclusively used” in the registered project or activity of export enterprises, as defined in the CREATE IRR.

As for goods and services purchased by ecozone exporters that may not qualify as “directly and exclusively used” in their registered projects, as I mentioned earlier, could these even be refunded even if we were to accept the BIR’s claim that an efficient VAT refund mechanism is already in place?

To avoid the cost or nuisance, or even the risk of not recovering the passed-on VAT by local purchasers even for goods or services that are directly used in the registered activity, it is possible that the ecozone entities will look at shifting their purchases from local sources to foreign suppliers in the future. Is this a consequence that our legislators envisioned when they formulated our tax reform laws? Lowering the corporate rate to 25% and rationalizing tax incentives to have a simpler, fairer and more efficient tax system should not result in overburdening existing businesses and putting our export industry between a rock and a hard place.

Although the BIR has the gargantuan task of meeting its 2021 collection target of P2.081 trillion, which is 6% higher than total 2020 collections, it should also be sensitive to the needs of our exporters, including the PEZA entities such as the business processing outsourcing enterprises (i.e., call centers), because they generate the employment, foreign currency inflows and foreign direct investments that we need now more than ever to recover from the setbacks brought by the pandemic.

The views or opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Isla Lipana & Co. The content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for specific advice.

 

Carlos Hilario R. Mateo is an Executive Director with the Tax Services group of Isla Lipana & Co., the Philippine member firm of the PwC global network.

carlos.mateo@pwc.com

Duterte extols virtue of keeping ties with China

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES should keep its strong ties with China because the economic giant would play a key role in global affairs for decades to come, President Rodrigo R. Duterte said on Monday night.

The Southeast Asian nation could “count on China as a friend and partner for peace and development,” he said in a virtual speech during the Communist Party of China (CPC) and World Political Parties Summit.

Mr. Duterte heads the ruling PDP-Laban, which signed a cooperation deal with Chinese communist party in 2017.

“To further build mutual trust and confidence, we must sustain our constructive dialogue and peaceful engagement,” he said. “This is crucial as the bilateral relations between our two countries expand and deepen.”

The President, who led a foreign policy pivot to China away from western super powers such as the US, said the CPC had overseen China’s “extraordinary rise to prosperity, lifting over 800 million Chinese out of extreme poverty and driving global growth in the process.”

The Philippines got P1.2 trillion in investment and loan pledges from China to boost big-ticket infrastructure projects. Critics have said few of these promises materialized.

As China’s sole political party celebrated its 100th anniversary, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to keep China’s influence on the global stage, saying it would continue to champion cooperation over confrontation and will “open up rather than closing our doors.”

He said China would use its development achievements “to provide the world with new opportunities,” including through its Belt and Road Initiative. The Philippines committed to support the global infrastructure project in 2018.

The pros and cons of infrastructure deals between the Philippines and China should be discussed publicly, said Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco, a lawyer and senior research fellow at the Ateneo De Manila University Policy Center.

“The Senate must take responsibility for this initiative,” he said in an e-mail. “At the very least, they can give advice to the President as to the public sentiment on this matter.”

As Beijing is set to take a more assertive stance on the global stage, the next Philippine President should put a premium on a multilateral foreign policy “while using bilateralism as a complementary strategy,” Mr. Yusingco said.

Amid the rivalry between China and the US, the country’s long-standing ally, the Philippines should adhere to a non-aligned foreign policy to gain more, said InfrawatchPH convenor Terry L. Ridon.

“There should be no problem engaging with Beijing on the Belt and Road Initiative, as other major economies also have their own counterpart development aid platforms for the developing world,” he said in an e-mail. “But the new administration should order a review of all projects funded through official development assistance to determine compliance with existing laws and regulations, specifically relating to environmental and social protection and good governance.”

Mr. Ridon said Mr. Duterte’s successor should pursue infrastructure projects based on the country’s development needs “instead of using projects as a platform to showcase warming relations.

“We can engage with all economies as their needs are fundamentally different from each other, and we have economic needs that may be supplied by one nation and not the other,” he added.

The Philippines should assess whether its “economic benefits from China exceed the costs,” said John Paolo R. Rivera, an economist from the Asian Institute of Management. “This is a basic rule in deciding whether a deal is worth venturing into.”

“It would be interesting for the Philippines to weigh the costs and benefits of a truly independent foreign policy by adhering to a nonaligned approach,” Mr. Rivera said in an e-mail. “There are lessons that can be learned from economies that consistently demonstrate neutrality.”

Negotiation is advisable as long as both parties treat each other as co-equals, said Antonio A. Ligon, a law and business professor at De La Salle University.

The Philippines sued China before a United Nations-backed international tribunal, questioning China’s claim to more than 80% of the South China Sea based on a 1940s map. In 2016, the court rejected China’s claim.

The Philippine can keep its ties with China without surrendering its sea claim, Mr. Ligon said. China refuses to honor the tribunal’s ruling.

“China is now considered a super power but when we sit at the negotiating table they should treat and respect us the same way with other countries they consider economically progressive,” he said.

Mr. Ligon said the Philippines could benefit from the rift between the US and China, adding that competition is “good because we always have options.”