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Gov’t urged to pivot from fiscal prudence to stimulating growth

THE GOVERNMENT needs to focus its energies on stimulating growth rather than keeping the deficit under control if it wants to keep its investment-grade sovereign rating, an ING Bank NV economist said.

Fitch Ratings’ decision to revise its outlook on the Philippines to “negative” from “stable” suggests the possibility that ratings agencies have become more concerned with medium-term growth prospects of the Philippines, which had been hailed previously for its “solid fundamentals,” ING’s Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in a note. He added that government officials seem to be concerned with maintaining “fiscal prudence” to keep deficits under control.

“Perhaps a revised game plan to chase faster growth can be considered? Faster growth generates revenue streams and generates jobs, and so far, penny-pinching has led to five straight quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP),” Mr. Mapa said.

Fitch Ratings itself on Thursday noted how Southeast Asian economies have become more vulnerable to deteriorating economic and public finances, citing the case of the Philippines.

“The country has not been as badly affected as some others in the region by the latest infection wave, but its economic contraction in 2020 was particularly deep,” Fitch Ratings said in a note.

“We believe there will be downside risks to medium-term growth prospects as a result of potential scarring effects, as well as possible challenges to unwinding the exceptional policy response to the health crisis and restoring sound public finances as the pandemic recedes,” it added.

Medium-term growth prospects, fiscal policy, and debt levels are key measurables for ratings agencies issuing sovereign ratings. An investment-grade rating grants an economy better access to credit at lower cost and could also help attract investment.

Fitch last week maintained its “BBB” rating for the Philippines, although the “negative” outlook serves as a warning that a rating downgrade could happen within 18 to 24 months.

The debt-to-GDP ratio was at a record low of 39.6% at the end of 2019. This has since risen to 60.4% at the end of March after the government borrowed heavily to fund its pandemic measures.

The economy also contracted by a record 9.6% in 2020, the worst performance in Southeast Asia. It continued to contract by 4.1% in the first quarter, with analysts warning growth this year will be negatively affected by the infection surge in March and April, when a lockdown was imposed in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.

“Despite calls for additional stimulus measures, fiscal authorities have parried suggestions to crank up spending as they carry on (calling for) austerity,” Mr. Mapa said.

“Should this trend not be corrected, we believe we may have the recipe for additional action from ratings agencies, with Moody’s [Investors Service] likely downgrading the country’s outlook followed by S&P [Global Ratings] should the all-important debt to GDP ratio stay above 60% for much longer,” he added.

Government officials on Monday maintained their fiscal deficit projection for 2021 to 9.3% of GDP but trimmed the deficit ceiling to 7.5% of GDP (from 7.7%), 5.9% (from 6.4%), and 4.9% (from 5.4%) of GDP in the 2022-2024 period, respectively.

“This fiscal consolidation strategy will continuously be adopted by the government to ensure fiscal sustainability over the medium-term and to bring back the country’s deficit to pre-pandemic levels,” the Development Budget Coordination Committee said.

The International Monetary Fund’s policy tracker indicates that as of July 1, fiscal support in the Philippines from the two stimulus packages, Bayanihan I and II, was equivalent to 4.4% of GDP in 2020.

Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III in June signaled that only P173 billion is available for further stimulus funds this year, as anything larger would be “unsustainable.” He added that internal sources of funding are being sought.

Bayanihan III, or the proposed P400-billion stimulus package which allocates P2,000 in cash subsidies for each beneficiary, has passed in House. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said earlier this week that the economic team can pursue some items from Bayanihan III if there are savings or additional revenue to fund them.

Mr. Dominguez on Wednesday acknowledged that a credit rating downgrade could be possible, but noted ratings agencies are not accounting for the fact that most economies are struggling with the pandemic. He said there is need to assess sovereigns on a new grading curve with the context of the crisis. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

ARTA preparing new simplified permit rules for laying telco fiber

THE ANTI-RED Tape Authority (ARTA) is considering proposing new rules that would speed up the issuing of permits for telecommunications underground works.

The agency said that a draft joint memorandum circular could streamline permits for the installation of poles, excavation to lay down underground fiber ducts, and the attachment of aerial and underground broadband cables on physical infrastructure.

The draft has been discussed in a meeting with the Department of Information and Communications Technology and the World Bank Group, ARTA said in a statement Wednesday.

The proposed circular will add to the telecommunications permit-streamlining guidelines currently in force. ARTA has been releasing guidelines on streamlining pending and new applications for the construction, repair, and maintenance of telco infrastructure since last year.

Since the original joint circular signed by various government agencies in July 2020, more than 26,000 pending telecommunications permits have been released.

“It has also decreased the number of permits needed from 13 to 8, documentary requirements from 86 to 15, and length of time for processing from 241 days to 16 days,” the agency said.

ARTA plans to meet with local government units to discuss concerns on telecommunications cable-laying and pole installation, and it will also meet with engineering and cable groups.

Meanwhile, ARTA said that it is planning to discuss the anti-competitive practices of developers that limit the internet providers available to subdivision and condominium residents with the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) and the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development.

The PCC has been looking into complaints about alleged attempts by development property owners to limit internet access to a single or in-house provider.

The competition regulator in the first abuse of dominance case in the country levied a P27.11-million fine against Urban Deca Homes Manila Condominium Corp. and parent company 8990 Holdings, Inc. in 2019 after the housing developer required unit owners and tenants to sign up with a preferred internet service provider. — Jenina P. Ibañez

Bangus, tilapia, shrimp seen as critical for improving fisheries output

PHILSTAR

IMPROVING the performance of the fisheries sector will hinge on implementing projects to raise the output of aquaculture produce like milkfish (bangus), tilapia and shrimp, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said.

Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) must take the initiative to sustainably develop the aquaculture sector.

He added that seaweed and shellfish also require attention.

 “While the fisheries sector currently contributes about 17% to 18% to the gross domestic product (GDP) in agriculture, it could further increase if programs and projects are efficiently and effectively implemented to unleash the sector’s potential,” Mr. Dar said during the inauguration of BFAR’s new headquarters on July 21.

“It is not just about improving productivity, but to see to it that supply is abundant and properly mobilized during the lean months and closed fishing season to temper fish prices and food inflation,” he added. 

Mr. Dar said the government should encourage the commercial fisheries industry to modernize their operations.

“We have requested the Development Bank of the Philippines and Land Bank of the Philippines to provide commercial fishing operators a credit window that will enable them to replace old vessels and acquire new ones,” Mr. Dar said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority estimates that fisheries production declined 0.8% year on year to 978,618 metric tons in the first quarter due to the weak performance of the commercial and municipal fisheries.

Overall agricultural production for the quarter fell 3.3%. The DA’s target for 2021 is 2.5% growth. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Unexpected challenge to teacher-vaccination rules emerges from DFA’s Locsin

A TEACHER holds an online class in this August 2021 photo. — THE PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS Secretary Teodoro L. Locsin, Jr. has asked the Justice department about the legality of requiring that teachers be vaccinated against the coronavirus before being allowed to return to face-to-face teaching.

In a social media post Thursday, Mr. Locsin asked the Department of Justice if it is “legal for schools to require teachers to vaccinate before letting them in the classroom when face to face (classes are) allowed?”

Justice Secretary Menardo I. Gevarra messaged reporters Thursday that “tough policy questions like these will most likely be discussed at the cabinet meeting first.”

He added that Mr. Locsin’s question “may have been triggered by (French President Emmanuel) Macron’s statements.”

Mr. Macron announced on July 12 that starting August, French citizens are required to be fully vaccinated before being allowed to enter public places such as restaurants, shopping centers, and public transportation.

Around 1.3 million people booked vaccination appointments on the French medical website Doctolib less than 24 hours after Mr. Macron’s announcement.

In the Philippines, there are no rules yet in place requiring teachers to be inoculated before being allowed to resume limited face-to-face classes, which are now being rolled out for medical classes.

Teachers are included in the A4 priority group for vaccination against COVID-19.

Education Secretary Leonor M. Briones had also encouraged teachers to get inoculations, which “will play a huge role in our bid to return our learners to school,” she said in a post on the Department of Education’s website in April.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte said last month that he cannot allow the full resumption of face-to-face classes until everyone is vaccinated or until the population achieved herd immunity. 

“I’m sorry but, it’s difficult. I cannot gamble on the health of the children,” Mr. Duterte told Ms. Briones in a televised briefing on June 21 in rejecting her request for a return to face-to-face classes. — Bianca Angelica D. Añago

DoST develops new process for preserving fruit, vegetables 

THE DEPARTMENT of Science and Technology’s (DoST) Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI) has created a new process for preserving fruit and vegetables that minimizes the degradation of the foods’ nutritional quality.

The FNRI said in a statement Thursday that its Nutrition and Food Research and Development Division developed a Low Heat and Low Humidity (LH2) Drying System which reduces volume losses during preservation.

It said produce subjected to the new process are shelf-stable for six months in the case of fruit and four months for vegetables.

“The LH2… uses desiccants to reduce drying air’s humidity that enables dehydration at lower temperature, resulting in retained sensory and nutritional properties,” FNRI said.

According to the institute, about 40% of the volume of produce is lost during post-harvest handling and processing. A more efficient method of preservation is expected to offset such losses. 

It said traditional high-temperature drying methods adversely affect the sensory and nutritional qualities of the food.

LH2 products have been evaluated by a food grading panel which returned a rating of 7, which corresponds to “moderate like.” Microbial analyses also showed that the products are fit for human consumption after falling within the acceptable range for microbial load.

It added that users of the LH2-process can tap into the growing demand for healthy food and adding value to produce.

“These dried products can be also included in relief packs distributed as part of emergency response during disasters, calamities, and also during pandemics,” the institute said.  

It said the fabrication of LH2 equipment intended for pilot-scale production is ongoing. Once completed, pilot production and feasibility studies will be conducted.

FNRI Senior Research Specialist Richard L. Alcaraz said by telephone that the pilot tests and feasibility study are expected to be completed within the year, with possible commercialization by 2022. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

The Delta factor

FREEPIK

Delta is the fourth letter of the Greek alphabet. In general, it stands for change. In chemistry, delta is the change in energy levels. In business, it compares the change in the price of an asset. Its uppercase “D” denotes discrete change from one point to the other. Its lowercase “d” measures infinitesimal change which is the subject of much of calculus.

True to its name, the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 virus strain, B.1.617.2, is quickly changing the face of the world. It is superspreading. It was first detected in India in December 2020 and from there, it surged rapidly to Europe particularly the UK. In the US, the first Delta case was spotted in March 2021 and is now its dominant strain.

The Philippines has its own share of the latest variant of the COVID virus. It was not spared of this health scourge. This is the reason behind OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David’s advice to the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) to prepare for it given the possibility of another infection surge due to its high contagiousness.

This is doubly urgent because for one, our current health protocols allow youngsters to go out of their homes. Based on the UK experience, unvaccinated and young people are highly vulnerable. For another, Filipinos who are younger than 18 years old are not given the jabs. They could be the potential victims. Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire was actually behind the news when she said “It’s just a matter of time before it enters.” With actual local cases reported in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Western Visayas, and Northern Mindanao, the Delta variant is now very much with us. We might have another perfect health storm waiting to happen.

Yale Medicine last week clarified that people who are completely vaccinated against COVID-19 would seem to be protected against the Delta variant. Those without the jabs and not observing the usual health protocols are at risk of being infected.

By this time, Filipinos who are deeply engaged in social media must have a good familiarity with the dynamics of the Delta variant. The Delta variant is “the fastest and fittest,” spreading 50% faster than the Alpha strain, which is itself 50% more transmissible than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2. Its math tells us its velocity is exponential. Yale Medicine says: “Delta is outcompeting everything else and becoming the dominant strain.”

Medical experts warn that if Delta truly moves fast enough as it does, we could have “hyperlocal outbreaks.”

It was good for the Metro Manila mayors to have announced “they would implement strict COVID-19 health and safety measures on the assumption that the more infectious Delta coronavirus variant was already spreading in the National Capital Region (NCR),” based on the Department of Health’s (DoH) report. While they would work for a granular lockdown, we find it difficult to imagine how the National Capital Region (NCR) can do it without a strong pandemic monitoring system. Until today, QR systems vary across the different areas in the NCR and even within each city, not all the establishments are exactly in synch. Granular lockdown means each local government unit (LGU) can precisely target specific barangay, purok, or even building. By faith, let us hope LGUs can go micro.

This cloud of uncertainty over our ability to manage current and future pandemics, courtesy of the Delta variant, explains the recent decision of credit rating agency Fitch to downgrade our country’s credit outlook from stable to negative. Fitch also downgraded the outlook of two government banks, as well as of four commercial banks from stable to negative while keeping their credit ratings due to the perceived weak prospect of the macroeconomy. In turn, this would have a negative impact on their asset quality and financial performance.

Just yesterday, we heard the report that Moody’s Investors Service also slashed its 2021 growth forecast from 7% to 5.8% due to the “acute challenge” of the pandemic.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also sounded the alarm against the Delta variant in its supplement to the Asian Development Outlook. The ADB realizes that the new variant poses risks to the Philippine economy’s recovery even as it maintained its growth projections at 4.5% and 5.5% for 2021 and 2022, respectively. We believe those growth forecasts are already way below the official targets of 6-7% for 2021 and 7-9% for 2022, and could accommodate a less than ideal outcome.

The ADB expects the Philippines to sustain its public spending on infrastructure projects and social support to encourage consumption expenditure. The ADB is pleased with the initial improvements in key macroeconomic indicators, gradual easing of quarantine restrictions and continued rollout of the vaccines. It also expects further improvement in business and consumer confidence. The government is now challenged to inoculate around 70 million Filipinos or 70% of the population by yearend. This could be the wild card because so far, DoH has reported that only 4% have been fully vaccinated at the rate of less than 300,000 per day.

The ADB is quite firm on one point. The Delta factor cannot be ignored. Its second revision of the country’s growth prospect is decidedly low enough to also reflect the risk from a Delta upsurge.

We believe the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) consensus to uphold its current growth targets despite this biggest health threat to business activities and market confidence is of a Braveheart effect. We see a Braveheart effect when we choose to be more generous, for instance, with our assessment despite all the odds against a quick economic bounce back, lest we discourage domestic demand and keep the recovery more elusive.

Nobody can challenge the DBCC’s push for “gradual and safe” reopening of the economy, more widespread rollout of the vaccines and expansion of health capacity. These could ward off the potential impact of the Delta factor. Infrastructure must be pursued. This could make growth possible and sustainable. These propositions are critical.

But in effect, the DBCC decision is premised on the success of pandemic mitigation to permit economic and business reopening. Confidence has been reposed on green shoots in job creation, trade, and manufacturing, as well as on personal mobility. Together, they comprise the high scenario.

Two factors could frustrate our optimistic expectation, though. One, our pandemic mitigation has been historically weak and no tipping point has been reached to convince us that this time, our health protocols and inoculation records could change the outcome. We could only hope that the DoH’s four-door strategy at points of origin, entry, care, and epidemic surge would be implemented with great dispatch to produce better results.

And, two, for the next four years, the DBCC decided to maintain its revenue projections despite the budgetary implications of a possible Delta variant on health, education, wage subsidy, and business assistance. We could only hope that the substantial tax relief granted under the CREATE Law to corporates would translate into higher reinvestment and more jobs for our people.

Preparing a low scenario for deciding on public policy is indispensable. Being conservative reflects the usual uncertainty in dealing with the deadly Delta factor. Our past experience in ramping up public spending teaches us we have limited absorptive capacity. Most important, a conservative scenario will challenge Congress and the Palace to deliver decisive and enlightened leadership, and the civil society to demand it.

It is always better to be prepared, to have a foretaste of the potential cost of muddling through another round of health crisis and economic freeze.

As Rolf Dobelli (The Art of Thinking Clearly, 2013) reminds us: “As paradoxical as it sounds, the best way to shield yourself from nasty surprises is to anticipate them.” That is the essence of the Delta factor, that is the essence of a meaningful change.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former Deputy Governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Disconnect

PCH.VECTOR-FREEPIK

A survey by the polling firm Social Weather Stations (SWS), the results of which were released on July 12, found that hunger incidence among Filipinos had reached 21%+ of the country’s 105 million population, or more than four million families whose members had gone hungry at least once during the past three months. Only in the National Capital Region (NCR) has hunger incidence declined; it has risen in Mindanao, the Visayas, and the rest of Luzon.

It was hardly news to this country’s poorest families whose already desperate plight became even more urgent when their breadwinners lost their jobs or had their occupations and paltry earnings restricted and diminished by the government’s lockdown of their communities. In a number of instances that the more responsible news media reported, such self-help initiatives as community pantries have been overwhelmed by thousands of needy people, who, when interviewed, told harrowing stories of their children’s perennial hunger, and thanked the heavens for the vegetables, instant noodles, and rice they had managed to procure which they said were enough to feed their families for a week.

The pandemic is, of course, responsible for the shutdown of many businesses, the consequent loss of some four million jobs, and the resulting economic recession. Containing the contagion is the first condition necessary to achieve some measure of economic recovery. But despite a Department of Health (DoH) claim that the Philippines is already in the “low risk” category of COVID-19 afflicted countries, only some four million out of the 70 million who have to be fully vaccinated to achieve herd immunity have been immunized. Many localities are still under Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ), even as a number of the more transmissible Delta variant infections have been detected among returning travelers and overseas workers from afflicted countries.

At about the same time that the results of a survey on respondents’ preferences for President and Vice-President were released, 12 senators proposed an investigation into the alleged use of public funds to pay for the troll farms that spread disinformation through the internet and even incite violence against human rights defenders and regime critics. Those troll farms would very likely be used in support of the campaigns for public office of Mr. Duterte’s chosen candidates.

Pressed for a response, the lead public relations arm of government, the hugely funded Presidential Communication Operations Office (PCOO), admitted that it had recently hired more than 300 “consultants” but denied that they would be part of the keyboard army of trolls that over social media have been adding to the crisis of information on public matters by demonizing government critics and spreading outright lies about the regime’s alleged accomplishments and Mr. Duterte and company’s continuing popularity.

As if to give credence to that latter claim, SWS rival Pulse Asia released the results of its own recent poll, which found that if the Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections were held today, a (Sara) Duterte-(Rodrigo) Duterte combination would prevail over such other likely candidates as Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko” Moreno Domagoso, boxer cum-senator Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao, and Vice-President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo.

The surveys since 2016 have found an average of 75% approval rating for Mr. Duterte, which was recently at 65%. Many informed Filipinos were as incredulous about it as they were about the electorate’s alleged preference for a Duterte-Duterte tandem. Hunger incidence among Filipinos has, after all, been steadily rising during the Duterte regime. It has been aggravated by regime failure to contain the pandemic by acquiring enough vaccine doses and accelerating the rate of vaccinations so as to hasten the normalization of business activities and end the recession in addition to easing the public health crisis.

The regime has also harassed and terrorized organizers of community pantries and red-tagged charitable organizations that tried to set up soup kitchens to feed the hungry, and it has mismanaged — to put it politely — the billion-peso social amelioration program (SAP) that could have helped tide over millions of families while they await the economic recovery that would enable their heads to find employment and put food on the table, but which Pacquiao, among others, says is so corruption-ridden as to merit an independent inquiry on who are responsible. The drug-related killings that local and international human rights groups say have claimed the lives of 30,000 alleged drug users and pushers are also an additional factor in hunger incidence, most of the victims being family breadwinners.

The skeptical have questioned the methods of the polling firms, among other attempts to denigrate their findings that on the matter of hunger incidence and Mr. Duterte and company’s approval ratings contradict each other. (If more people are hungry, why do they still want to keep the Duterte clique in power?) Others, this writer included, have suggested that the favorable results of the polls on Mr. Duterte could be at least partly due to fears that any criticism of the regime will invite retaliation.

But these results may not be due to infirmities in the leading polling firms’ methodology. Crucial to the polling method is the survey respondents’ being representative of the entire Philippine population. Both SWS and Pulse Asia’s track record of their findings’ being validated by the outcome of elections over the last 30 years suggests that they have indeed found such a community. While fear could account for the answers of some survey respondents, as Pulse Asia has admitted is possible, it may not be so dominant a factor as to decide survey results as some believe.

What is most likely is the extent and resounding success of the regime disinformation campaign that, while primarily based in social media, is evident as well in the reports and commentaries by mercenary practitioners in some print and broadcast media organizations. Disinformation has spread enough to debase public awareness of what is going on in this country and to contribute to the worsening of the crisis in information that already afflicts vast sectors of the populace, particularly and ironically its poorest, who are the first victims of the extrajudicial killings that have widowed and orphaned thousands of women and children, and of the hunger and deprivation that have surged during the current regime.

Because of the disinformation campaign the troll farms have been relentlessly conducting, it is the least critical and most disempowered who think that the Duterte regime is doing the best it can in a bad situation. Many think the pandemic an act of God and something about which little can be done. Still others also assume that because “he’s one of us,” Mr. Duterte cannot possibly be blamed for their predicament. Most all, however, what can account for the disparity between the difficulties being experienced by millions and their continuing approval of the regime responsible for them is the mass incapacity to see the connection of one with the other: how central the quality of governance is to the quality of everyone’s lives.

The disconnect between mass suffering and mass approval of the regime is indisputable — and distressing in its implications. The possibility that by next year the country will find itself still under the same provincial despotism that has been ravaging it since 2016 may very well be the most outstanding achievement of the keyboard army of trolls that, sustained by the billions in public funds in the hands of the huge government public relations bureaucracy, will very likely find their numbers further augmented as the May 9, 2022 elections draw near.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

A major ivermectin study has been withdrawn, so what now for the controversial drug?

Ivermectin, an existing drug against parasites including head lice, has had a checkered history when it comes to treating COVID-19.

The bulk of studies so far show there’s not enough evidence ivermectin is useful in treating or preventing COVID-19, either alone or with antibiotics or supplements.

Yet interest in the drug remains, on social media, in some countries, with some doctors and with one Australian politician in particular, Liberal MP Craig Kelly, touting its benefits.

Now a large clinical trial that seemed to show positive results for ivermectin has been withdrawn. So, you’d think that would be end of the ivermectin saga.

But research into ivermectin is ongoing. Here’s what the evidence says so far and what we can expect next.

Ivermectin was identified as a potential COVID-19 treatment based on experiments in isolated cells and animals. The initial lab studies into ivermectin’s effect on the coronavirus involved very high concentrations of the drug. These were many times higher than can be achieved in the body at doses recommended to treat parasites.

As the pandemic progressed, so did ivermectin clinical trials. But when experts who write doctors’ prescribing guidelines reviewed the data, they found not enough evidence to back ivermectin to treat or prevent COVID-19. These groups included Australia’s National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce and the World Health Organization. Instead, they said ivermectin should only be used in clinical trials.

The most robust summary of the evidence for ivermectin in COVID-19, published in June, goes one step further. It found available evidence showed ivermectin didn’t work.

This review carefully examined 10 higher-quality (randomized-controlled) clinical trials, which involved more than 1,100 patients with COVID-19 being treated with ivermectin.

The researchers excluded many of the low-quality (observational) studies some commentators have used to support ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment.

This was because observational studies cannot control other clinical factors that might influence how people respond to COVID-19, such as other treatments and supportive care.

This major review concluded ivermectin did not reduce death from any cause, the length of stay in hospital, or people’s ability to clear the virus. The review also said ivermectin was safe but “not a viable option” to treat COVID-19.

In recent months, we heard the seemingly promising results from a large randomized trial, which was posted online as a pre-print and had not been independently verified (peer reviewed).

This study stood out because it found ivermectin led to “a substantial improvement and reduction in mortality rate in ivermectin treated groups” — by 90%.

However, the excitement was tempered when the pre-print was withdrawn pending a “formal investigation.” Significant questions were asked about the nature of the primary data on which the study was based and whether some of the paper had been plagiarized, among other issues. This called into question the spectacular positive result for ivermectin.

The trial and publication are still under investigation.

But the ivermectin story continues. Researchers at the University of Oxford announced in June they would be starting another ivermectin trial, called PRINCIPLE.

This high-quality trial will involve investigating treatments for people at more risk of serious COVID-19. So far, the trial has recruited more than 5,000 volunteers from across the UK. Another part of the trial (into another potential COVID-19 therapy) has already reported results.

This new ivermectin trial is just starting and will compare a three-day treatment of ivermectin in people within the first 14 days of COVID-19 symptoms, or having a positive test, with those having usual care. The trial is expected to report its results in the coming months.

Ivermectin remains a medicine of interest for treating and preventing COVID-19. Yet, key questions remain including the best ivermectin dose, how long ivermectin should be taken and when it should be given to people with COVID based on their stage of infection and illness.

Until then, getting vaccinated will give you the best chance of avoiding severe COVID rather than waiting for a COVID treatment, which may or may not be shown to work.

 

Andrew Mclachlan is the Head of School and Dean of Pharmacy at the University of Sydney.

Can we save the climate through better bookkeeping? Yes!

PCH.VECTOR-FREEPIK

DOUBLE-ENTRY bookkeeping, invented in the 15th century by the mathematician Luca Bartolomeo de Pacioli, has been fundamental to economic growth ever since. Now, not just economic activity but the very future of the planet requires another revolution in bookkeeping.

The accounting standard needed today is one capable of measuring the amounts of greenhouse gases that are emitted and removed from the atmosphere, and the goal of reaching a “net zero” balance between the two. Although the Greenhouse Gas Protocol has provided an agreed-upon way to account for corporate carbon emissions, there is still no standard measure to assess where companies stand on the path to net zero.

As one example of the accounting issues involved, consider carbon offsets, which are verified credits equal to one ton of carbon dioxide, generated from projects such as protecting forests, planting trees or replacing charcoal stoves with solar ones. It’s been suggested that such offsets could account for a 10th of the effort needed to reach net-zero emissions. But many questions remain unanswered. For example, how quickly would a protected forest have deteriorated without the offset project? Would a set of newly planted trees have been planted anyway, and once planted would they stay in the ground permanently? Will a family provided with a solar stove use it as its only stove, or alongside the old charcoal one? And so on.

One way to simplify things would be to buy carbon-emission permits from governmental cap-and-trade systems, and then lock them away so that carbon polluters cannot use them to emit a ton of CO2. This would ensure that the permits amount to averted emissions. This is the approach adopted by Climate Vault, an effort associated with the University of Chicago. However, if this were the only kind of permissible carbon offset, many legitimate net reductions would be missed. A tree that might be planted solely to generate an offset, for instance, would go unplanted.

Recently, Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), a worldwide initiative to help companies reduce emissions, launched a process to develop a common definition and global standard for what net zero means for businesses. “SBTi created a North Star for corporate climate target-setting, and we are looking for it to now play a similar role for net-zero targets,” explained Tim Juliani of the World Wildlife Fund, which is part of the initiative.

SBTi requires member businesses to reduce their direct and indirect emissions to levels that are in line with the goals of the Paris agreement — that is, to levels that could limit warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, and ideally 1.5 degrees. For businesses that have more than 40% of total emissions coming from their value chains, SBTi also requires actions to address emissions from their upstream and downstream activities. To date, roughly 1,600 companies have committed to set emissions-reduction targets through SBTi, including 63 among the Fortune 500. (A much larger number of companies, including 60% of the Fortune 500, have set emissions targets, but these vary in terms of what emissions are being measured, tracked and reported as well as the stated timetable for success.)

The Securities and Exchange Commission may also play an important role in setting emissions-disclosure requirements for corporations. It has already invited comments on how disclosure of carbon emissions and risks should be required from public companies. There would be substantial benefits to having a clear emissions-disclosure standard worldwide, so that multinational public corporate efforts could be better integrated into the global effort to hit net zero.

(One danger is that disclosure requirements for public companies might shift investments to privately owned companies not subject to the same rules. To the extent that happens, the effect on greenhouse gases will be undermined.)

De Pacioli’s invention promoted business activity and reduced, but clearly did not eliminate, unnecessary errors and outright fraud. And that’s basically what should be expected of new accounting standards for determining what it means for a company to reach net zero: fundamental effectiveness with imperfect adherence. Although it’s not yet clear exactly what net zero means, the stage is set for another pivotal accounting breakthrough.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Marina Bay Sands casino closes as virus spreads in Singapore

THE MARINA Bay Sands casino in Singapore will shut for two weeks after authorities detected a COVID cluster, the latest to emerge after an outbreak at a fishery port that pushed the government to reimpose social restrictions.

Eleven COVID cases have been linked to the casino owned by Las Vegas Sands Corp., prompting the decision to close until Aug. 5 for deep cleaning and to break the spread of the virus, the Health Ministry said on Thursday. Testing will be done on all staff working at the casino, which is part of a larger complex including a hotel, dining and luxury shopping mall.

The Marina Bay Sands casino cluster is a fraction of the 179 new coronavirus cases found on Wednesday. Most of those cases that day came from a fishery port cluster which appears to be at the epicenter of a resurgence in infections found in food markets, karaoke clubs and now one of two casinos in Singapore.

Singapore’s Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said the fishery cluster prompted it to reimpose stricter measures, including a ban on dining-in and limiting social interactions, starting from today.

“Unfortunately, while our fishmongers and stall assistants were going about earning an honest living, they got infected at the Port,” Mr. Ong said in a Facebook post. “As they went on to work at various markets around the island, many more cases in the community were seeded.”

Smaller clusters and a smattering of cases have since emerged across 41 food markets in Singapore. Although authorities are racing to track the fishmongers who visited the fishery port by offering free tests to them, supermarkets and food markets largely remain open.

Heath officials have speculated that the COVID infection from the fishery port cluster may have been introduced by fishing vessels from either Indonesia or other nearby countries. They said the virus variant detected from the cluster is similar to infections found in people coming into Singapore from Indonesia, which has become the new virus epicenter of Asia.

While Singapore’s cases are far less than the thousands of daily cases in Indonesia and Malaysia, the country is closely watched as its government tries to become the first major economy in Asia to transition away from a COVID-zero approach to instead treating the virus as endemic and more fully reopening.

Singapore initially pledged to announce further easing of curbs in the second half of July — when more than 50% of the population is fully vaccinated — and again when it hits the two-thirds mark around National Day on Aug. 9.

However, the resurgence in cases, the third such one this year after an outbreak in Changi Airport in May and a food market just outside the central business district in June, has raised the likelihood of a longer delay in reopening Singapore’s borders.

Health Minister Ong said about half of Singapore’s population has received two doses of vaccine and he expects the number to rise by a percentage point daily to about 64% or more in two weeks’ time. “That will put us in a much stronger and resilient position when we review” the restrictions, he said in the social media post.

Singapore has halted indoor exercise and cut social gatherings to two people from five, while banning dining in. These measures are expected to be reviewed in two weeks. — Bloomberg

India reports first human death from bird flu virus

WILLIAM MORELAND-UNSPLASH

NEW DELHI — An 11-year-old boy has died in India from a bird flu virus of the H5N1 strain, the first such fatality in the country, highlighting a potential new risk for the world’s second-most populous nation battling the coronavirus pandemic.

The boy was admitted at New Delhi’s premier All India Institute of Medical Sciences on July 2 and died on Tuesday after a multi-organ failure, a government statement said.

Health workers treating the patient and the boy’s family have been kept in isolation, and authorities have launched contact tracing, the statement said.

In Haryana, the boy’s home state in India’s north, the Animal Husbandry Department has not found any suspected cases of bird flu and has stepped up surveillance, it said.

India has seen more than half a dozen bird flu outbreaks in poultry in the past two decades, all of which were brought under control, with no human cases reported in the country previously. — Reuters

Two doses of Pfizer, AstraZeneca shots effective vs Delta variant — study

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

LONDON — Two doses of Pfizer or AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine are nearly as effective against the highly transmissible Delta coronavirus variant as they are against the previously dominant Alpha variant, a study published on Wednesday showed.

Officials say vaccines are highly effective against the Delta variant, now the dominant variant worldwide, though the study reiterated that one shot of the vaccines is not enough for high protection.

The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, confirms headline findings given by Public Health England in May about the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca, based on real-world data.

Wednesday’s study found that two doses of Pfizer’s shot was 88% effective at preventing symptomatic disease from the Delta variant, compared to 93.7% against the Alpha variant, broadly the same as previously reported.

Two shots of AstraZeneca vaccine were 67% effective against the Delta variant, up from 60% originally reported, and 74.5% effective against the Alpha variant, compared to an original estimate of 66% effectiveness.

“Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the Delta variant as compared with the Alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses,” Public Health England (PHE) researchers wrote in the study.

Data from Israel has estimated lower effectiveness of Pfizer’s shot against symptomatic disease, although protection against severe disease remains high.

PHE had previously said that a first dose of either vaccine was around 33% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta variant.

The full study published on Wednesday found that one dose of Pfizer’s shot was 36% effective, and one dose of AstraZeneca’s vaccine was around 30% effective.

“Our finding of reduced effectiveness after the first dose would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable groups in the context of circulation of the Delta variant,” the authors of the study said. — Reuters

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