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China’s high-seas game of chicken is backfiring

SCREENGRAB OF VIDEO POSTED ON PHILIPPINE COAST GUARD FACEBOOK ACCOUNT

By Karishma Vaswani

CHINA’s military has long been accused of reckless behavior in the air and at sea. Last week’s collision between two of its vessels in the South China Sea underscores how a single miscalculation could spark a wider conflict.

At stake is the stability of the Indo-Pacific, a strategically important region for the US, where several of its partners, including Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, are increasingly exposed to Beijing’s risky maneuvers.

The latest incident is part of a broader pattern of behavior, especially in the areas China says it owns. Video of last Monday’s dangerous encounter shows a Chinese coast guard ship firing water cannons as it chased a Philippine coast guard vessel, before slamming into one of its own warships. Despite the evidence, Beijing blamed Manila for the accident, accusing it of deliberately “intruding” into its waters.

China’s strategy of pushing boundaries is also about testing American resolve. The US and the Philippines are treaty allies, with Washington legally obligated to defend Manila if attacked. By escalating encounters at sea just to the brink of confrontation, Beijing is probing whether Washington will stand by that commitment.

China’s repeated harassment of Philippine vessels comes despite a 2016 arbitration ruling in The Hague that sided with the Philippines, declaring Beijing’s historical assertions baseless. China claims more than 80% of the lucrative waters, and refuses to acknowledge the competing stakes of other Southeast Asian nations.

This assertiveness isn’t limited to the sea. Beijing regularly deploys warplanes toward self-ruled Taiwan, which it claims as its own. One of the most recent high-profile incursions took place in June after US lawmakers visited a top Taiwanese military figure on the island. The tactic appears to have two goals in mind: Exhaust Taipei’s pilots, but also to normalize China’s military presence. 

It’s also about checking how far Washington would go to defend Taiwan in a crisis. Under President Donald Trump, there’s been little guarantee the US would step in if it were attacked.

Key allies Japan and Australia have felt heightened pressure, too. In July, Tokyo expressed serious concerns after a Chinese fighter bomber flew within 30 meters of one of its surveillance planes over the East China Sea. Beijing defended those actions as “justified” and “professional.” In February, Australia was forced to issue aviation warnings when Chinese naval vessels staged live-fire exercises off its coast, followed by similar drills near New Zealand the next day.

Individually, Beijing can dismiss these incidents as isolated, and insist that it’s doing nothing wrong. Combined, they reveal a broader pattern — a calculated strategy to assert dominance while stopping short of outright war, as the RAND Corp., a California-based think tank noted in a 2024 report.

China views these actions as a continuation of politics rather than warfare, deliberately keeping them below the threshold of open conflict, the report added. This allows Beijing to secure economic resources in disputed territories, while limiting the ability of other countries to do the same. 

Some recent moves from Washington have been reassuring. Last Wednesday, the US deployed two warships to Scarborough Shoal, the site of the collision, in an apparent show of support. Beijing said it had expelled one of the American ships that entered its territorial waters, while Washington defended the operation as legal under international law.

Such freedom-of-navigation operations must continue in the face of China’s expanding claims, even at the risk of further angering Beijing. Equally important is consistently raising awareness about its destabilizing actions, challenging the narrative of ownership. 

These incidents can’t be shrugged off as routine. Left unchecked, the dangers of a miscalculation will only grow in China’s high-seas game of chicken. One wrong move could ignite a much wider crisis.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Michelle Yeoh sees Ne Zha 2 movie as homage to Chinese mythology

Ne Zha II (2025) — IMDB
Ne Zha II (2025) — IMDB

LOS ANGELES — For Oscar-winning actor Michelle Yeoh, it is time for Hollywood to focus more on Asian mythological characters like the ones showcased in the Chinese film Ne Zha 2, which has become the highest-grossing animated film in history worldwide.

“They’re warriors and demigods,” Ms. Yeoh, who voices the role of Ne Zha’s mom for the film’s English dub, told Reuters.

“I guess it’s like Zeus, you know, and Thor, but these are ours. And I think that’s very important because when you learn about another culture’s myths, you have a nice, deeper understanding, and it teaches you to embrace something that is different,” the Everything Everywhere All at Once actor added.

Ne Zha 2, distributed by A24, follows the events of the first film, 1999’s Ne Zha. In the new film, the souls of Nezha and Aobing work to regain their physical bodies and protect their families. The original film grossed over $700 million worldwide.

The English dubbed version of the fantasy film directed by Yu Yang and based on Xu Zhonglin’s 16th century novel called Investiture of the Gods, arrives in US theaters on Friday.

The sequel, originally in Mandarin, made waves when it overtook Pixar’s Inside Out 2 in February to become the highest-grossing animated film globally in history, according to data from ticketing platform Maoyan.

Ne Zha 2 has amassed a total box office of 12.3 billion yuan ($1.69 billion) including pre-sales and overseas earnings, making it the eighth highest grossing box office film globally in history.

While Ms. Yeoh emphasizes the cultural richness of the film, she wants audiences of all walks of life to understand that the most important thing is that it’s “a beautiful story.”

“I think we should stop seeing it as, ‘Oh it’s a Chinese film,’” she added.

The Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon actor recalled watching the movie for the first time and not being able to tear her eyes away from the screen.

“You’re going up to the heavens. You’re going down to the bottom of the seas. You see the dragons. You see all these kinds of things, and just for that two hours — be transported,” Ms. Yeoh said. — Reuters

Asia’s wealthy investors seek more crypto assets

REUTERS

HONG KONG/SINGAPORE — Wealthy Asian families and family offices are ramping up their cryptocurrency investments, driven by the bullishness around digital assets, increased mainstream adoption and favorable regulatory developments in key markets.

Wealth managers said they are receiving more enquiries, cryptocurrency exchanges have seen trading volumes surge and crypto funds are in huge demand as high-net-worth Asian investors seek more exposure.

“We raised over $100 million in just a few months, and the response from LPs has been encouraging,” said Jason Huang, founder of NextGen Digital Venture, referring to Limited Partners that represent high-net-worth individuals.

Mr. Huang launched a new long-short crypto equity fund, the Next Generation Fund II, in Singapore in late May, after winding down his first fund last year, which returned 375% in less than two years.

“Our investors — mainly family offices and internet/fintech entrepreneurs, recognize the growing role of digital assets in diversified portfolios,” he said.

Swiss investment bank UBS said some overseas Chinese family offices plan to raise their crypto exposure to around 5% of their portfolios.

“Many second- and third-generation individuals of family offices are starting to learn about and participate in virtual currencies,” said Lu Zijie, head of wealth management at UBS China.

The surging interest comes on the back of strong cryptocurrency returns and favorable regulatory developments in the United States under President Donald J. Trump, such as the recently approved GENIUS Act. Bitcoin prices have been hitting record highs this month, surpassing $124,000.

Hong Kong’s recent passage of its stablecoin legislation has also fuelled a wave of crypto enthusiasm.

“The momentum has definitely built, and I think it’s a function of just general maturity of the asset class,” said Saad Ahmed, head of Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini. 

Wealth managers said the mindset among Asian clients has changed from merely wanting to have a small allocation to digital currencies a few years ago to now embracing it as a must-have in portfolios and exploring tools to optimize returns.

“Last year, they (family offices) started to dip their feet into bitcoin ETFs… now they have begun to learn the difference of holding a token directly,” said Zann Kwan, chief investment officer at Singapore-based Revo Digital Family Office.

Lighthouse Canton, a Singapore-based wealth manager, said some more sophisticated family offices have started adopting market-neutral strategies, such as basis trades and arbitrage.

Giselle Lai, associate investment director for digital assets at Fidelity International, said investors are increasingly treating bitcoin as a “portfolio diversifier” to hedge macro uncertainties, given its low correlation with stocks and bonds.

Cryptocurrency exchanges have also benefited from increased trading demand.

The number of registered users at Hong Kong’s HashKey Exchange surged 85% year on year by August 2025, the firm said.

Total trading volumes at South Korea’s three major exchanges grew 17% so far in 2025 over the same period of 2024, with average daily trading volumes rising more than 20%, according to research platform CryptoQuant. — Reuters

DICT plans follow-up study on BNPP repurposing

BW FILE PHOTO

THE Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) plans to conduct its own study on converting the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) into a data center.

“The KOICA (Korea International Cooperation Agency) funded study is expected to be finished by November. There is an ongoing technical study if it can really be done,” DICT Secretary Henry Rhoel R. Aguda told reporters on the sidelines of the general membership meeting of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Wednesday.

Mr. Aguda was referring to the memorandum of understanding signed between the Philippines and South Korea in 2024.

Immediately after KOICA’s feasibility study is finished, the agency will conduct its own study as well, Mr. Aguda said, noting that the BNPP is well suited to be converted into a data center.

“The ingredient of a hyperscaler is already there, the infrastructure and it is also a very good location. There’s a free port, fiber optic connectivity around the area and there’s a landing station,” he said.

Mr. Aguda added that the BNPP has the capacity to be converted into a 600-megawatt (MW) data center.

In November, the Department of Energy (DoE) said it remains focused on reviving the mothballed BNPP, although it is also actively studying the feasibility of converting it into a data center.

Last year, Bataan Governor Jose Enrique S. Garcia III floated the data center plan, citing it as a potential draw for investors. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Getting the timing right: Disasters, debt and livelihoods

VOLUNTEERS prepare food boxes for flood victims during a humanitarian relief operation at the Philippine Red Cross Headquarters in Mandaluyong City. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

By Alexander Raabe and Matteo Ficarra

ACROSS Asia and the Pacific, floods, typhoons, heatwaves, and droughts now strike with a frequency unimaginable a generation ago. Rising temperatures and seas fuel fiercer storms, while rapid urban growth pushes more families into harm’s way.

When disaster hits, it is the poorest who pay twice — first through the loss of homes, crops, and jobs, and again through the invisible cost of higher government borrowing.

Rebuilding roads, hospitals, and schools costs billions. Governments often raise that money by issuing sovereign bonds. Yet lenders grow cautious after a disaster, fearing tax revenue will fall and relief spending will rise. To compensate, they demand a disaster premium — a higher interest rate on new debt.

For a country already balancing tight budgets, every extra percentage point paid to bondholders means less cash for emergency shelter, social protection, and the small grants that help shopkeepers reopen. In effect, a spike in sovereign borrowing costs can delay the very investments that pull communities back on their feet.

ADB’s research for the Asian Bond Monitor tracked bond issuances worldwide over two decades. The pattern is clear: the larger the recent damage relative to national income, the higher the interest rate a government must accept.

A damage bill equal to just 1% of GDP can add roughly a third of a percentage point to borrowing costs. For low-income countries, that is the difference between funding a new elementary school or paying creditors.

Markets have short memories. The disaster premium peaks when emotions run high and uncertainty clouds forecasts. Each passing day brings new information — relief funds arrive, revenue rebounds, rebuilding begins — and investor anxiety ebbs. On average, waiting three months after a major disaster trims the added cost by almost two fifths.

This finding does not mean governments should always delay borrowing. People need water, power, and healthcare immediately.

But it highlights a trade-off: issue bonds at once and pay more, or bridge the gap with cheaper stop-gap finance and enter markets later at lower cost.

Well-designed disaster insurance reduces the premium further. When investors see that a share of losses will be covered by a payout — whether from a catastrophe bond, a regional risk pool, or a parametric policy — they worry less about default and settle for lower yields. In our dataset, the difference between insured and uninsured events often reaches several dozen basis points.

For poor families, those saved basis points matter. While insurance reduces borrowing costs, it comes at a premium, making it essential to balance coverage levels with fiscal realities. Lower interest payments, when achieved cost-effectively, free up funds for relief and rehabilitation that speed up recovery and protect hard-won gains in poverty reduction.

Developing countries, and their partners, can use the following strategies:

Use fast, concessional relief to buy time. Multilateral lenders and regional facilities can step in with quick-disbursing, low-interest loans or grants immediately after a disaster. This bridge finance covers urgent needs while allowing debt managers to wait for calmer markets before issuing large volumes of bonds.

Expand affordable insurance. Many countries in Asia and the Pacific remain under-insured. Scaling regional risk pools, encouraging catastrophe-bond issuance, and offering premium subsidies can shrink the disaster premium and protect public balance sheets.

Plan debt issuance calendars with disasters in mind. Just as farmers watch the skies, treasuries should watch the disaster season. Keeping a portion of annual borrowing requirements pre-financed, building modest reserves, and lining up contingent credit lines, reduce the pressure to tap markets at the worst moment.

Focus on public communication. Transparent damage assessments, clear reconstruction plans, and credible budget updates reassure investors and citizens alike. Confidence lowers borrowing costs and attracts private capital for rebuilding.

The debate over sovereign spreads can feel remote to families who lost roofs and livelihoods. Yet every basis point shaved off borrowing costs multiplies into classrooms rebuilt, vaccines procured, and micro-loans issued.

By timing debt wisely and protecting budgets with insurance, governments can turn financial choices into concrete relief for the most vulnerable.

When storms and floods strike, people suffer twice if governments pay too much for post-disaster debt. Smart timing and insurance cut financing costs, leaving more resources to help communities rebuild stronger than before. n

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Asian Development Bank, its management, its Board of Directors, or its members.

 

Alexander Raabe is an economist at ADB’s Economic Research and Development Impact Department. Matteo Ficarra researches empirical macroeconomics and international economics at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

Delivering on our budgets

Many of us are initiating or in the midst of budget season, including our National Government. This process concludes later in the year and sets the tone for our organization’s 2026. While I won’t deny the importance of financial knowledge in my role, I believe the true strength of a corporate budget lies not just in the numbers themselves but in its ability to turn vision into reality, driven by our collective efforts and shared purpose. Developing a solid budget isn’t just a financial task; it’s a strategic roadmap created with the very individuals who will bring it to life.

The process begins long before the first spreadsheet is opened. As the former US President said, “Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget, and I’ll tell you what you value.” It requires a deep understanding of our organization’s strategic goals, market dynamics, and our people. We need to start with a clear vision of where we want to be in the next year, five years, and beyond. This involves working closely with the CEO, executive team, and department heads to define our strategic priorities, identify key growth opportunities, and assess potential risks. It’s a conversation, not a financial exercise done in isolation. At PHINMA, we hold kickoff meetings to share strategic objectives and key inputs that will influence every department’s plans.

Next, we analyze the data: past performance, market trends, and competitor insights to develop our assumptions and forecasts. But data alone is never enough. We must go beyond the numbers and tap into our teams’ collective knowledge and expertise. Each department offers unique insights into their areas, especially regarding challenges and opportunities. We promote ownership and accountability by involving them in the budgeting process, which also helps us get a clearer picture of the actual situation. During budget season, I make an effort to meet with as many teams as possible to understand their confidence levels. We actively seek input from all levels, hold workshops, and engage in one-on-one conversations to ensure every voice is heard.

Next, we start translating our strategic goals into specific, measurable financial targets. We collaborate with each department to create realistic and achievable budgets that match our overall strategic objectives. We encourage them to be ambitious but also to stay grounded in reality. It’s a balancing act, but it’s essential for laying the groundwork for success. This often involves a lot of back and forth and depends on our ability to communicate effectively within the organization.

A well-crafted budget should be more than just a financial plan; it should be a living document that guides our decision-making throughout the year. It should be flexible enough to adapt to changing market conditions and emerging opportunities, but also disciplined enough to ensure that we stay on track to achieve our goals. Regular monitoring and reporting are crucial for keeping us informed of our progress and identifying any potential issues early on. We embed cyclicality and seasonality into our budgets and develop milestones to track progress over time.

However, the most advanced budget in the world is worthless if it’s not embraced and executed by our people. We need to communicate the budget clearly and openly, explaining the reasoning behind the targets and the implications for each department. We need to foster a culture of accountability, where everyone understands their role in reaching our financial goals and is empowered to take ownership of their responsibilities.

More than that, we need to create an environment where our people feel valued, supported, and motivated to give their best efforts. This involves investing in their growth, providing the resources they need to succeed, and recognizing and rewarding their achievements. It also means fostering a culture of collaboration, where teams work together to overcome challenges and achieve shared goals. After all, our employees are the ones who make the budget a reality. As CFO, my job is not just to manage the finances; it’s to empower our people to bring that budget to life, turning a financial plan into a shared, tangible success. That is the true measure of a successful budget.

The views expressed herein are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of his office as well as FINEX.

 

EJ Qua Hiansen is the chief financial officer of PHINMA Corp. and the president of the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines.

Film Mistress Dispeller observes love triangle with shifting sympathies

Mistress Dispeller (2024) — IMDB
Mistress Dispeller (2024) — IMDB

LONDON — Filmmaker Elizabeth Lo’s quest to document modern relationships in China led her to a little-known practice to tackle infidelity, discovering that people catching their spouses cheating can hire a professional to end the affair.

Ms. Lo’s documentary Mistress Dispeller gives a close-up glimpse into what is a relatively new industry in China.

Shot over four months, the film follows the real-life case of Mr. and Mrs. Li. The badminton-loving parents of one are considered a model couple by many in their neighborhood but lately, Mr. Li has gotten close to a young woman from a nearby town, Fei Fei.

Anguished, Mrs. Li reaches out to Teacher Wang, an experienced mistress dispeller.

Ms. Lo and her team met with dozens of mistress dispellers, but Ms. Wang was the only one able to persuade her clients to go on camera.

Ms. Lo said seeing it unfold in front of her, her sympathies kept shifting from the wife to the husband and even the mistress, which took her by surprise.

It took her team three years of following Ms. Wang, filming multiple cases, before they landed on the Li’s. The film shows Wang infiltrating the family under a false identity and after gaining Mr. Li and Fei Fei’s trust, influencing them to break up.

In order to authentically capture the process, the husband and the mistress could not be let in on the film’s concept and were approached to participate in a documentary about modern love in China. A disclaimer at the start of the film declares that none of the scenes are scripted or re-enacted and the subjects agreed to participate in it.

“We really grappled with how we stay ethical as a production when we can’t be transparent at first,” said Ms. Lo.

“We knew that we would show them a cut of the film and give them the opportunity to re-consent to being a part of it. We were very prepared that if they were to drop out, we could pivot to a different film.”

Mistress Dispeller combines sweeping drone shots of bustling cities and wilderness landscapes with fly-on-the-wall scenes capturing intimate conversations.

“I really wanted audiences to be able to watch the organic interplay between characters. What strings does Teacher Wang pull that elicit what reaction? She’s 10 steps ahead of everybody constantly,” Ms. Lo said.

Hong Kong-based Ms. Lo, whose previous feature Stray centered on street dogs in Istanbul, hopes Mistress Dispeller will encourage audiences to reflect on their own approaches to love and forgiveness.

“We’re all sort of fumbling through love and trying to find love, sustain love and to keep it,” she said.

Mistress Dispeller will be released in the United Kingdom on Aug. 22 and the United States in late October. — Reuters

How to handle a boss who gets the credit

I have a boss who relies heavily on my assistance to do even the most important tasks he should be handling himself. The worst part is that he’s overly confident in himself when he’s in front of people, but often fails to give me credit for all the things that I’ve done for him. How do I manage the situation?  — Ink Phantom.

This may not be to your liking. But be realistic. You don’t have much choice but to support your boss. There’s no other option, unless you resign or accept other assignments outside your department. But look at the positive side. You may not realize it, but your current situation should work in your favor.

For managers worth their salt, delegation is celebrated as the ultimate mark of good leadership. After all, a boss who tries to do everything ends up doing nothing well. But what happens when the pendulum swings too far — when your boss keeps passing everything to you like a hot potato in a never-ending team-building game?

Of course, the issue is when the boss is stingy in giving you proper credit. Whatever, if I were in your place, I would be more than happy to do the job for him. You may feel bitter about it now, probably because of the workload, stress and lack of credit.

However, if you play it right, it could help you fast-track your career development and your influence, not only with your boss, but with the whole organization.

It depends on the perspective. Some things could go wrong. Others might go surprisingly right. If you don’t have any choice, think of all the good things that are happening now instead of plotting your escape.

POSITIVE SIDE
Being overloaded by your boss can play in your favor. That is, if you know how to manage the workload and survive a stressful work environment. Let’s count the ways.

One, make the situation your rocket ship for skill growth. Few career development programs can match the “sink or swim” training you’re getting from an over-delegating boss. One week you’re crafting budgets, the next you’re managing client complaints or mediating conflict between workers.

Somewhere in between these difficult tasks, you’ve perfected troubleshooting the office printer. That’s where you’re experiencing an MBA without formal schooling.

Two, gain visibility in the process. Handling high-level tasks means people notice you. Suddenly, your name appears in meetings, reports and casual conversations. You become the go-to person for things that matter, not just “office supply inventory.”

If that’s not happening yet, volunteer for more assignments and aspire to be given challenging tasks. That way, you can easily prove your worth to top management.

Three, become a leader by default. Congratulations! If everyone’s looking to you for answers, then that’s a good sign that you’re being recognized with or without the presence of your boss. Don’t worry about the title and credit.

People would know it better than your boss. The team knows who gets things done, and it’s not the person with the corner office and the calendar with a quarterly foreign travel.

Four, improve your chances of a promotion. Should your boss become ill, retire, burn out, or decide to pursue their lifelong dream of opening a beach bar in Boracay, you’re the natural candidate to replace them.

After all, you’ve been performing half their job already. Your instant promotion could happen anytime, with or without a succession plan.

Five, leverage your situation. Once you realize how much you’ve absorbed, you can use it as bargaining power. At performance review time, you can always say: “I’d love to keep our professional relationship fruitful. Let me know how we could strengthen it further by adjusting my portfolio of compensation, if warranted.”

Six, enrich your resume with concrete examples. Future employers will troop to your doorsteps the moment they see your experience, complete with dollar signs in cost savings. “You handled operations, finance, HR and crisis management under one boss? That’s amazing. When can you start?” To prospective employers, you’ll look like the Swiss Army knife every organization wants to hire.

THE BALANCING ACT
Here’s the bottom line: when bosses over-delegate, they put themselves at risk of irrelevance and their workers at risk of burnout depending on their perspectives. But for you, the same situation can serve as a hidden fast-track plan — if you play it smart.

The trick is to balance two things: survival and strategy. Take the opportunity to learn, showcase your skills and build influence, but also guard your boundaries so you don’t flame out before you cash in on the benefits.

After all, being the unofficial boss has its perks — as long as you have the authority, which you have to secure in writing (via e-mail) from your boss.

One caveat, though. Too much delegation can feel like being trapped in an overworked internship program that never ends. But if you take it in a positive light, it might just be the best leadership boot camp you never asked for.

 

Ask questions and receive Rey Elbo’s insights for free. E-mail elbonomics@gmail.com or DM him on Facebook, LinkedIn, X or via https://reyelbo.com. Anonymity is guaranteed.

Manila ranks fifth in Prime Global Cities Index in Q2

PRIME RESIDENTIAL prices in Manila rose by 9.1% year on year in the second quarter, ranking the Philippine capital fifth among global cities for price growth, according to the latest edition of Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index (PGCI). Read the full story.

Manila ranks fifth in Prime Global Cities index in Q2

Stocks may rise before Powell speech, BSP meet

BW FILE PHOTO

PHILIPPINE SHARES may rise slightly when the market reopens on Friday as investors reposition before the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s speech at their annual gathering and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy meeting next week, where it is expected to deliver a third straight rate cut.

On Wednesday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) inched up by 0.20 point to close at 6,277.87, while the broader all shares index slipped by 0.07% or 2.76 points to end at 3,735.14. The market was closed on Thursday for the Ninoy Aquino Day holiday.

“There can be muted technical correction ahead of next week due to an oversold market,” First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said in a Viber message.

The PSEi has been moving sideways in the past few days, staying at the 6,200 level due to a lack of fresh catalysts before the US Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium.

Mr. Powell is scheduled to make a speech at the gathering on Friday, which markets will monitor for potential hints of the direction of monetary policy in the world’s largest economy amid expectations of a Fed cut next month, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The Fed has kept its target rate at the 4.25%-4.5% range since December 2024.

Traders ramped up bets for a September cut following a surprisingly weak payrolls report at the start of this month, and were further encouraged after consumer price data showed limited upward pressure from tariffs, Reuters reported. However, a hotter-than-expected producer price reading last week complicated the policy picture.

Minutes out overnight from the Fed’s July gathering, when policymakers voted to keep rates steady, suggested that Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller were alone in pushing for a rate cut.

That led traders to pare back odds to 80% for a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Sept. 17, down from 84% 24 hours earlier. They are currently pricing in a total of 53 basis points of easing over the rest of the year.

Another key catalyst for the market is the BSP’s Aug. 28 policy meeting, where the market expects a third straight 25-basis-point reduction, Mr. Ricafort said.

This would “lower borrowing costs that would help spur more demand for credit and, in turn, spur more economic activities and overall GDP (gross domestic product) growth,” he added.

Mr. Ricafort placed the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,204.04 and immediate major resistance at 6,370.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said last week that a rate cut is “quite likely” at the Monetary Board’s meeting next week.

Mr. Remolona added that they could lower benchmark rates by only two more times for the remainder of the year, including the possible move on Aug. 28, as they expect inflation to stay within the 2-4% target. — R.M.D. Ochave with Reuters

PAGCOR to continue freeze on gaming licenses ‘for now’

BW FILE PHOTO

THE Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. (PAGCOR) said it has no immediate plans to lift its moratorium on issuing new licenses for online gaming platforms.

Asked whether the moratorium, which began on March 1, 2024, will continue, PAGCOR Chairman Alejandro H. Tengco told BusinessWorld: “For now, maybe it should just be like that.”

“We’ll review it first to see if lifting the moratorium is appropriate,” he added on the sidelines of a House budget briefing on Wednesday.

Mr. Tengco told legislators that PAGCOR “temporarily” stopped accepting new applicants for accreditation as gaming system service providers.

He said applications submitted before the March cutoff will be processed. These will undergo vetting through PAGCOR’s “probity checker,” which verifies identities, key officials, financial capacity, and criminal records of applicants.

Currently, there are more than 70 licensed online gaming sites and applications, including ArenaPlus, Playtime, OKBet and BingoPlus.

Despite the freeze, online gaming remains the top contributor to PAGCOR revenue.

The regulator expects to generate P116.65 billion in revenue this year, with 60% likely coming from online gaming.

In the first seven months, it collected P37 billion from digital betting platforms.

“If there is a total ban, it will have a big effect on the revenue of PAGCOR. There is no question about that,” he said.

Mr. Tengco added that he is open to proposals from the Department of Finance requiring online gaming operators to list on the Philippine Stock Exchange.

“Most of the major players are already listed, so it might not be a problem,” Mr. Tengco said. “But smaller operators may not have the capacity to list.”

He added that PAGCOR is also studying whether increasing remittance rates from e-gaming operators could help address regulatory and social concerns. 

“We will definitely look at the matter,” he said.

PAGCOR’s take is 30% from sole e-gaming platforms, reduced from 35% in January.

Integrated resorts are charged 25% to reflect operating expenses of bricks-and-mortar venues. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Carbon-credit rules due out next month

REUTERS

THE Department of Energy (DoE) said rules for trading carbon credits are expected to be released next month.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Energy Undersecretary Felix William B. Fuentebella said the DoE will release general guidelines governing the issuance, management and monitoring of carbon credits in the energy sector by September.

“We plan to have it out and effective next month,” he said.

The Philippines, one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, is a signatory to the Paris Agreement, a global treaty seeking to take action in arresting the warming of global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and limit the increase to 1.5°C.

The Philippines has committed to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 75% by 2030, as outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) climate action plan. It plans to reduce or eliminate emissions in five areas: agriculture, waste, industry, transport, and energy.

One way to achieve the NDC is by tapping international financial mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, such as the issuance and transfer of carbon credit certificates (CCCs).

A CCC is a tradeable certificate representing one ton of carbon dioxide equivalent of GHG emissions reduced, avoided, or removed from the atmosphere.

The DoE is tasked with overseeing the energy industry’s NDC. Meanwhile, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources will serve as the designated national authority of the Philippines tasked with soliciting international cooperation on the carbon market.

In a draft circular, the DoE said it seeks to assist and guide the private sector in “effectively planning and implementing strategies to leverage CCCs, enabling reduction of operational costs, compliance with regulatory and fiscal requirements, access to available incentives, and enhanced implementation of mitigation efforts.”

Among the eligible mitigation activities for energy are voluntary early retirement of coal-fired power plants; development of renewable energy projects; adopting low-carbon energy technologies; fuel switching and co-firing in power generation; switching to electric vehicles; and biofuels blending.

Participants can trade CCCs on the Philippine market, in countries covered by bilateral or multi-lateral agreements, and in the voluntary carbon market.

According to the NDC 2020-2030, the Philippines will need an estimated investment of approximately $72 billion to implement the targets.

“Mobilizing this capital from public, private and international sources is critical to achieving the targeted reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from these sectors,” Environment Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla said in a recent climate summit organized by investment platform GenZero.

He said that the government is undertaking a comprehensive update to the climate action plan to recalibrate strategies for accelerating decarbonization.

“For the energy sector, updating of the NDC is aligned with the Philippine Energy Plan and focuses on policy measures that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency,” Mr. Lotilla said.

ACEN Corp., the listed energy platform of the Ayala group, is a pioneer of the energy transition mechanism, using carbon finance to decommission its South Luzon Thermal Energy Corp. coal power plant as early as 2030, a decade ahead of its retirement date.

“We started to divest our coal plants and basically invest everything into renewables in the Philippines,” ACEN President and Chief Executive Officer Eric T. Francia said.

The company is aiming to achieve its goal of reaching 100% renewable energy generation by the end of the year. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

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