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Bill on higher senior citizen discount for utility bills hurdles House committee 

PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

A COMMITTEE in the House of the Representatives approved on Monday a bill that would increase the discount granted to senior citizens on monthly electricity and water consumption fees to 10% from the current 5% as well as provide exemption from value added tax (VAT).    

The House Ways and Means Committee passed an unnumbered substitute bill to House Bills 1903 and 3040, which would amend Republic Act 9994 or the Expanded Senior Citizens’ Act of 2010.  

Under the proposed measure, the discount can only be availed if monthly consumption does not exceed 150 kilowatt hours and 30 cubic meters of water.  

It will apply on a per household basis, regardless of the number of senior resident.  

Baguio City Rep. Mark O. Go said the measure would help senior citizens in informal sectors who are not covered by pensions and healthcare benefits.  

“It remains a fact that this sector of society is having difficulties to keep up with the relatively rapid economic growth where prices of medicines, healthcare, basic goods, and commodities, and house utilities are constantly increasing through time,” he said in the bill’s explanatory note.  

However, Department of Finance Division Chief Lyonel T. Tanganco raised concerns that the provisions of the bill could be abused by some households.  

“We’re concerned that the proposal may result in tax leakages, abuses, and more complicated tax administration. One possible leakage is when households continue to enjoy the proposed benefit even if the declared senior citizen under whom utilities is registered is no longer living,” he said. 

He added that the measure would be inconsistent with the objectives of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Law to improve the efficiency of VAT through additional exemptions.  

Mr. Tanganco highlighted the importance of collecting VAT revenues from senior citizens in order for the government to invest on social services.  

A Senate counterpart bill, which would extend the 5% discount on the first 150 kilowatt hours of electricity and 50 cubic meters of water, is pending at the committee level. — Russell Louis C. Ku 

House panel OK’s bills on communication access for deaf Filipinos 

DSWD

A COMMITTEE in the House of Representatives approved on Monday two bills that seek to help deaf Filipinos be able to communicate in day-to-day activities by providing adequate support such as sign language interpreters and subtitles.  

The House Special Committee on Persons with Disabilities passed House Bill 3796 or the proposed Communication Accessibility to Filipino Deaf and Hard Hearing Act, and House Bill 8922 or the proposed Sign Language Interpreters for Persons with Disabilities Act, subject to amendments.  

House Bill 3796 would provide communication access to education by establishing systems of oral and signed communication with education agencies, training of teachers, and support services through alternative communication such as hearing aid and transcription services.  

It also would direct government agencies to deliver their services in the most appropriate language and means of communications for deaf individuals.    

Television stations should also provide subtitles or signed communication for deaf individuals in their programming.  

Meanwhile, House Bill 8922 would require all courts conducting public hearings and investigations to hire accredited interpreters. — Russell Louis C. Ku 

Pharmally executives moved to jail after failure to provide documents to Senate panel 

TWO OFFICIALS from a company under Senate probe for alleged anomalies in pandemic supply contracts were transferred to a regular jail on Monday from Senate custody after repeated failure to provide documents subpoenaed by the Blue Ribbon Committee.  

Linconn Ong and Mohit Dargani, director and corporate secretary of Pharmally Pharmaceuticals Corp., respectively, would remain at the Pasay City Jail until they “properly answer questions propounded to them, submit documents required by the committee or otherwise purge themselves of a contempt order imposed against them,” based on the commitment order signed by Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III and Senator Richard J. Gordon, Sr., who chairs the committee. 

During the committee session last Friday, Mr. Dargani was granted his request to physically search for boxes holding financial records either in their office or in a warehouse, although he claimed that these may no longer be there since their lease has expired. 

A day after, Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Rene C. Samonte recommended the jail transfer order after Mr. Dargani proved ambiguous on the supposed trip.  

“We have not left because he does not want to give information on where to go, he said he does not know where — office, warehouse, or residence. I said we can go to all the three areas, but he refused,” he told Mr. Gordon in a text message in a mix of English and Filipino. 

Pharmally president Twinkle Dargani was ordered to remain under Senate custody due to mental health issues. 

The Senate is investigating Pharmally after it was awarded more than P11 billion worth of contracts by the budget department’s procurement service despite having only P650,000 in paid-up capital. — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan 

Trust Issues: Reflections on the current Philippine trust landscape

VECTOR JUICE-FREEPIK

In the book Building Trust: In Business, Politics, Relationships, and Life, American authors Robert Solomon and Fernando Flores assert that trust isn’t something that’s constantly present but is rather cultivated — an active and dynamic part of life. They also introduced the concepts of naive trust, which is easily broken, and authentic trust, which is “sophisticated, reflective, and possible to renew.”

This brings us to the topic of the Philippines’ trust landscape. Which institutions drive trust within the country? Is the trust they have built naive or authentic? How different is the trust landscape today compared to that of the pre-pandemic Philippines?

These questions and more were some of the points tackled on Nov. 24 during the virtual launch of Rise and Respond: Trust Rewards the Agile and Future-Ready, the 2021 edition of the Philippine Trust Index (PTI). The PTI is communications firm EON Group’s biennial study that takes a picture of the country’s trust landscape, including the different factors that affect the Filipinos’ trust in six key institutions: the government, the business sector, the media, nongovernment organizations (NGOs), the Church, and the academe.

The report presentation was followed by a panel discussion featuring experts representing each institution: attorney Kristian Ablan, undersecretary at the Presidential Communications Operations Office and program director of the country’s Freedom of Information Program; Ruth Novales, VP for Corporate Affairs at Nestlé Philippines; journalist Camille Elemia; attorney Gianna Montinola, co-founder of Hands On Manila; ABS-CBN chaplain Rev. Fr. Tito Caluag; and Dr. Jamil Paolo Francisco, the interim School Head of the Asian Institute of Management’s Stephen Zuellig Graduate School of Development and Management. The forum was moderated by sociologist Dr. Jayeel Cornelio who is also the director of Ateneo de Manila University’s Development Studies Program.

During the discussion, Ms. Elemia expressed relief in seeing the media’s increased trust level this year after the constant tirades that journalists had received pre-pandemic from the current administration, which undermined their credibility. However, she also recognized the media’s continuing challenge of providing accurate information 24/7 and the consistency with which it needs to do this to further increase public trust. This includes journalists judiciously selecting the stories to report on and avoiding sensationalist angles so that the public can focus on the stories that have actual implications on their lives.

When it came to the trust in the Church, Fr. Caluag observed how the institution has been able to maintain its high overall trust level while also seeing a decrease in extreme trust. As an institution whose work is based on faith, the reverend believes it’s not just the quantity but the quality of trust that it must nurture. He believes that the continued high trust in the Church is due to its leadership that works “tao-tao” or on a personal level to create an environment where members of the congregation feel cared for. However, he acknowledges the institution’s need to reinvent its traditional clerical structure of authority where a congregation often defers to a priest’s opinions. In his view, the Church must foster greater solidarity among its community, particularly among younger members who could be encouraged to participate more actively in its initiatives.

For his part, Dr. Francisco was glad to see that trust in the academe remains high since it is an institution whose work is about the search for the truth, even with the proliferation of so-called alternative channels of information. According to him, trust is a fundamental core of economic activity: People need to gauge first whether an institution such as the academe is trustworthy enough for them to engage (or continue to engage) with. He wondered, however, if the academe is communicating enough of what it does to the public, given the netizens’ mostly neutral sentiment for it and the millennials’ tempered trust in it. With upskilling a more crucial aspect now in an individual’s career rather than a degree, the educator stated that teaching is only one element of the academe’s job. Teachers must also help students generate their own ideas.

A big winner in this year’s trust landscape is the NGO sector, whose trust rating nearly doubled since 2019. Ms. Montinola described this spike as “a function of everybody’s work,” with NGOs mostly composed of volunteer members. Especially in light of organizations being used by “unscrupulous” individuals and groups in the past, the sector’s visibility during the pandemic has been part of its hard climb to earn back public trust. She also credits the multi-sectoral effort that went into the country’s pandemic relief since tending to the basic needs of Filipinos during the crisis is a task that cannot be fulfilled by only one institution.

Meanwhile, the government’s trust standing is a little more complicated. While the institution mostly maintained its 2019 trust level, its pandemic response has caused a negative change in the perception of its trustworthiness. For his part, Undersecretary Ablan took this dip in public trust in stride, saying that in light of what has happened in the past 20 months, the 2021 rating will serve as the government’s base rate so that it could work at raising it in the future.

Survey ratings for the most and least trusted government agencies were also presented, with the most trusted ones working in the sectors of education, aid distribution, and loan assistance. A question from the audience noted how the Department of Health (DoH) didn’t appear in either list despite its critical role during the pandemic and the corruption allegations against it. The DoH’s trust rating actually declined from 85% in 2019 to 81% in 2021, which could be attributed to its alleged misuse of funds and the generally weak leadership it has shown in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Still, while the Filipinos see these publicized issues as signs of failure, the DoH is more than just its secretary. It also includes the personnel who have been working on the frontlines and whose efforts were felt by the people on the ground. This could account for the department’s middle-level performance, with its trust and distrust levels canceling each other out.

With the business sector earning the lowest trust rating this year, Ms. Novales urged all industry players to work on leveling the playing field. Most businesses that had to close during the pandemic were micro, small, and medium enterprises, but, as the Nestlé executive put it, the sector’s weakest link is also its biggest link since SMEs serve as suppliers to multinational corporations. She called for greater collaborations not just within the industry but with other institutions, especially the government, so that even SMEs can benefit from improved taxation and pricing policies. This way, businesses can continue to provide products to consumers and employment to the people even during a crisis, and thus earn back public trust.

Aside from the overview of the country’s trust landscape, the conversation also touched on its implications on the 2022 elections. To this, some of the panelists noted that the candidates’ respective pandemic responses and plans for moving forward will be assessed by Filipinos. Other issues that have also been critical in driving trust in the government, such as the economy and the protection of Philippine territories, will continue to be hot topics until election day, with voters studying each candidate’s platform for solutions to these concerns.

Since election season is also a time when various surveys are conducted, the question of the importance of trust ratings was asked. All of the panelists agree that surveys are helpful in providing the data they need to implement better programs for the public since they tell the story of the people’s experiences with these institutions. They inform stakeholders of how Filipinos perceive their performances and pinpoint the areas that need improvement.

Data from surveys also help institutions identify if there has been a communication gap. It provides a snapshot of which narratives are popular with the public and which ones have fallen through the cracks. Once stakeholders can see what the data is telling them, they can then fix what needs to be fixed. As Ms. Montinola said, almost everything now is about perception. With PTI being a perception survey, its results tell institutions where they need to better communicate authentic stories to combat both the lack of public awareness of their initiatives and the spread of misinformation.

The panel discussion at the 2021 PTI launch was a rich conversation filled with insights on the state of trust in the country. One of the biggest takeaways from it and the study is how the Filipinos’ personal experiences of each institution’s leadership and aid during the pandemic have shaped their trust. As the Philippines continues to work to recover from the crisis, our leaders in society must also strive to rebuild the trust they’ve lost and strengthen the trust that they have kept. After all, trust is dynamic and ever-evolving. It always opens up “new and unsought possibilities” for all of us.

This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the MAP.

 

Junie S. Del Mundo is the chair of the MAP Health Committee, vice-chair of the MAP CEO Conference Committee, and chair and CEO of The EON Group.

map@map.org.ph

junie.delmundo@eon.com.ph

map.org.ph

Signs and portents, November 30, 1941

PORT AREA of Manila Bay, Manila, Philippines, March 1, 1939, 12 noon; Looking north, Pier 7 closest, Bureau of Customs Building under construction. — JOHN TEWELL (FLICKER)-US NATIONAL ARCHIVES

This is an unpublished (I think) article by our great-uncle Benigno Del Rio, who was a novelist, poet and frequent contributor to the Spanish-language press in Manila in the 1930s to the 1950s. He was a winner of the Premio Zóbel (the Spanish language literary award) in 1936.

Manila in those last prewar days was a hub of rumors, and a Japanese spy story is in nearly all memoirs of those days. This was written exactly 80 years ago today, the week before the war began.The original Spanish version is available on request. Aitor Luis Alegria

Suspicious Nipponese

NOV. 30, 1941 — It has been several days since America handed Japan a very strong diplomatic note. The situation is becoming strained. It is rumored that Japanese submarines have been taking positions in Philippine waters, anticipating the outbreak of war. It is also said that Japanese planes are overflying our territory by night. A few days ago, Juan E. Canobas, of Danlig, Palawan, was in Manila, and he told me that on several occasions, after dusk, he heard the murmur of aircraft engines passing over his home, at no great height.

“And why do you suspect they were Japanese, if you couldn’t see them?,” I asked the old Valencian, who every day spoke worse Spanish, in his Valencian accent.

“Because it has a different sound and it flies very low. American planes always fly higher and make their own sort of noise.”

This made me consider. Why would Japanese aircraft overfly Philippine territory? That story about the Japanese submarines struck me as a lie, but now that Mr. Canobas confirmed the Nipponese flights, I could no longer doubt that the subjects of Hirohito planned something big for the Philippines.

The war? Who knows! I was not convinced it had to come, because the Americans had taken all precautions possible, and the Japanese were not going to challenge the Americans. All the rest, maybe. Against the Netherlands Indies say, since Holland was occupied by the Germans and their control was precarious in their Asiatic colonies. And we have seen how they inserted themselves into Indochina, taking advantage of a momentary German victory in the European war, and who had wretched France in their grasp.

Against Britain? I don’t see that as likely either, as the base in Singapore is one of the most powerful on Earth and is formidably armed. But… who knows what the Nipponese military is capable, what they have in their armories in Japan, what they will do!

Today Papa and I have gone to the North Harbor.

It’s been many years since the Pasig River has proven too small to accommodate expanding Philippine trade. For that reason, President Quezon began the construction of the North Harbor.

We go after nine. The day is cloudy on account of the weather to the north. Last night it was cool, and it rained a little in the morning.

We arrived at the Matadero on Azcarraga and we drove up a half-built street. The area recovered from the sea is quite large, and the dredges continue to pump, day and night, the muddy water of the bay. We arrived at Pier 2 and there we left the auto to continue our “inspection” on foot, because further on there were no streets passable by car. The Americans are hastily building warehouses along the pier.

Walking on, we passed Piers 4, 6, and 8. At this last we halted, surprised, to find our old friend Antonio Ferrer y Gutierrez, fishing.

“Is the fishing good, Tono?” asked my father.

“Not bad. So far, I’ve caught a half-dozen small lapu-lapus.”

“Wow! I didn’t know you were devoted to the fishing-rod.”

“It’s been a few years now that I’ve taken up this sport, Benigno, and almost every Sunday I come to these piers to fish.” 

“Well, well. And who are these characters hanging about in front of us, on the breakwater? They look Japanese.”

“You’re not mistaken Benigno. They are Japanese!”

”How suspicious!”

“And so. They don’t miss a single Sunday. And more, I’ve noticed, they can’t manage to catch a single bolinao or dilis!”

“Eh, Tono?”

“You heard.”

“So then…”

“It seems to me they are spies, sounding out the piers and the channel before the breakwater. Yes, because they are always changing position, and, I repeat, they never catch anything!”

“Good God!”

“Look at them. There’s three. They are always three! Two make like they are fishing and the third always has a book in his hand, that seems to be a notebook!”

“Well, well. It’s probably your imagination.”

“I don’t know, I don’t know. All I’m saying is they seem suspicious.”

“And so suspicious!”

The manuscript comes with this postscript, on an additional page.

Months later, being already a prisoner in Villamor Hall, when I was being asked about the house of Gorostiaga, Major Kitchikawa brought out a current map of Manila and I could see that parts of the bay were marked with numerous soundings, especially around the North Harbor.

How easy it would have been to arrest these Nipponese spies months before the war!

It was written: the Americans were dullards who weren’t interested in the matter of Japanese espionage. They were unwilling to bother the government of Nippon! For that reason also they had not bothered to fortify the island of Guam, which was recommended by the Yankee General Staff.

In the end, we will see what will come to pass.

 

Benigno Del Rio and his father Tomas were denounced to the Kempeitai by the Francoist Spanish chargé d’affaires for being the main Spanish Republican sympathizers in the country. Both were held at Villamor Hall for two months in 1942, then released. Benigno Del Rio was arrested again on Dec. 23, 1944, and this time imprisoned in Fort Santiago. His imprisonment was the subject of his book, Siete Dias en Infierno, and also of his testimony in Tomobumi Yamashita’s trial in 1945.

Economic forum and COVID summit

(Part 2)

This is a follow up to last week’s piece, https://www.bworldonline.com/economic-forum-and-covid-summit/, with special reference to the BusinessWorld Virtual Economic Forum 2021 last week, Nov. 24-25, with important speakers from the multilaterals, government, and corporate sectors. The keynote address was given by IMF Director for Asia and Pacific Department Changyong Rhee.

TWEETS ON ECONOMY AND ENERGY
Below are some of my tweets in the hashtag #BWVEF2021 on Nov. 24:

IMF official Changyong Rhee identified policies for countries to have #RecoveryRoadmapPH as growth crawls while inflation and govt. debt/GDP ratio increase. Absent in his proposals is to limit spending, rein in borrowings to control future high taxes.

PH GDP size or level at constant 2018 prices: P17.53 trillion in 2020, P19.38 trillion in 2019, P18.26 trillion in 2018. To reach 2019 level would be around 3rd Qtr 2022, but might be constrained by high inflation, higher taxes.

Jose Limcauco of BPI mentioned Ayala conglomerate focus on sustainability, clean energy. But core Ayala business is real estate — malls, office-resid’l condos, hotels, that require 24/7 electricity. Thermal power saves Ayala core business.

Jaime Azurin of MGen is not supportive of carbon tax unless government can show clear path to power supply stability. Good point because #RecoveryRoadmapPH is not possible if power prices are high, or there’s frequent blackout.

Joseph Sigelman of AG&P Group said that LNG is transition fuel towards RE. Please avoid that path, sir. Europe experiencing huge gas prices, bordering on blackouts bec wind power low, calm weather. They embrace coal again to avoid blackout.

BORROWINGS AND DEBT PAYMENT
The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) released the cash operations report for January-October 2021 last week and the numbers remain bad. The averages per month: Revenues P249 billion, expenditures P369 billion, deficit P120 billion, borrowings P247 billion, debt amortization P68 billion, interest payment P37 billion (see Table 1).

Huge public debt will require huge and high taxes because government does not know how or intend to cut spending and subsidies, especially to its many government corporations. Philippine taxpayers are doomed in the next few years.

COVID SUMMIT 2021
The Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC Ph) held a very successful COVID Summit last week, on Nov. 25, at Vivere Hotel in Alabang, Muntinlupa City. About 120 people, mostly doctors, came in probably the biggest in-person conference in the Philippines this year. They either had vaccination cards or negative antigen test results to show before joining the full day conference.

The welcome speech was given by Dr. Homer Lim, President of CDC Ph. The opening remarks were given by broadcast personality Cory Quirino, and the keynote speech was given by Dr. Allan Landrito. The previous night, CDC Ph also held a fund-raising dinner called “Igniting Courage,” also at Vivere Hotel, and Doc Allan was given a Lifetime Achievement Award for the sacrifices he has made to save tens of thousands of Filipino lives with his actual and online consultations on early and home-based treatment. Vivere gave good discounts for the two-days event and PCCI-Muntinlupa donated many drinks for the dinner — thanks heaps.

Five live medical and technical lectures were delivered during the Summit: 1.) Early aggressive management of COVID in the hospital by US critical care specialist Dr. Pierre Kory (a virtual talk); 2.) Early treatment home-based protocols by US cardiologist, Dr. Peter McCullough (again, a virtual lecture); 3.) COVID and the microbiome by Morocco-US gastroenterologist, Dr. Sabine Hazan (a virtual lecture); 4.) Natural immunity vs. vaccine immunity by Filipino cardiologist Dr. Rafael Castillo; and, 5.) Early outpatient management of high-risk COVID patients by Fil-Am pulmonologist, Dr. Marivic Villa who flew in from Florida.

Then a panel discussion of experts followed, with four doctor speakers — Allan Landrito, Rafael Castillo, Marivic Villa, and Romeo Quijano. At the fund-raising dinner the previous night, Doc Marivic was given the Gabriela Silang Award for her bravery, passionate and irrepressible energy in educating doctors and patients here in the country.

VACCINATION RATES AND COVID CASES
There is a disturbing trend worldwide where many countries with high vaccination rates — of 60% and above of their population — have very high active COVID cases. Europe and several Asian countries showed this trend.

In contrast, many African countries with very low vaccination rates, from 0.2% to 8% of total population, have very low COVID cases (see Table 2).

The Philippines’ rush to more vaccination, especially the on-going National Vaccination Days on Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 with these experimental vaccines is dangerous. Instead of rushing, we should pause as natural immunity has been explicitly ignored if not demonized in the altar of supposedly vaccine immunity.

PUSHBACK AGAINST IATF RESOLUTION 148B
In the CDC Ph Weekly Huddle last Saturday, Nov. 27, entitled “IATF Resolution: Hindi Solusyon!,” there were three lawyer speakers: Tanya Lat of COVID Call for Humanity (CCH) and Prof. of Legal Ethics at UP Law and Ateneo Law, Aaron Soguilon of the Juan Dakila Movement (JDM), and Lyman Manzanares of the CDC Ph Legal Volunteer Corps.

Atty. Tanya argued that IATF Resolution No. 148-B is immoral, illegal, and unconstitutional and she discussed the adverse implications of this order that has been copied and implemented by many local government units (LGUs) already.

Atty. Aaron discussed the hierarchy of laws — Constitution at the top, laws by Congress, Executive issuances, and LGU ordinances — and when to file cases of grave coercion regarding forced vaccination and other remedies on Adverse events following immunization (AEFI).

Atty. Lyman gave an update on a case he is filing by Dec. 1 — a still undisclosed court and complainant, —but he gave this short summary:

“We are filing a special civil action and praying for a TRO and preliminary injunction from the courts against IATF Resolution No. 148-B s. 2021. We have reviewed its legality and we have come to the conclusion that it is patently illegal and unconstitutional. The resolution is a measure beyond the scope of IATF’s functions. Sections A, B, C, D, F and G violate the 1987 Constitution and/or contrary to enacted legislation. In sum, we are now constrained to seek redress from the courts because the resolution openly violates all fundamental tenets of liberty, right to due process, and right to equal protection of the laws.”

Amen, Atty. Lyman and team. Hats off and my support to this important legal recourse, my support to the rule of law, not the rule by authoritarianism.

 

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com

Brace yourself. Brazil is about to rock markets

NATANAELGINTING-FREEPIK

YOU MIGHT THINK the most important factors driving commodity markets right now are the speed at which the US Federal Reserve unwinds stimulus; the state of China’s real estate industry; or geopolitical jostling within OPEC. Don’t rule out the significance of Brazilian welfare payments.

Brazil’s currency, the real, has been trading around record lows in recent months, thanks largely to the President Jair Bolsonaro’s efforts to tear up a fiscal straightjacket and introduce an anti-poverty program ahead of elections in 2022. Laws that will allow the passage of the measures — a reboot of the Bolsa Familia cash welfare payment introduced by his predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that Bolsonaro wants to raise to around 400 reais ($71) a month — have already cleared the lower house of congress and are now working their way through the Senate.

Politically, it’s a remarkable reversal. One of Bolsonaro’s central policies on coming to power in 2018 was a reform of the state pension system to plug budget deficits and regain the investment-grade credit rating Brazil lost in 2016. Winning back that investor confidence was the driving force behind the constitutional public spending cap that Bolsonaro himself is now abandoning to push forward with his own welfare program. Battered by the highest number of COVID-19 deaths after the US, Brazil’s commitment to fiscal restraint has become so threadbare that the career decisions of its more orthodox economy minister, Paulo Guedes, have become a market-moving indicator.

The broader global impact may be in commodity markets, though. Along with signs of easing in America’s supply chain crisis and Chinese energy prices returning to something approaching normal levels, the weakness of the real may yet help to ease the inflationary pressures coursing through the world economy.

That’s because Brazil has an outsize role in a wide array of the world’s essential foodstuffs and minerals. When the currency falls, production costs for Brazilian producers fall as well, making their goods more competitive and adding to supply.

Take soybeans, the country’s largest export, where US futures prices hit a nine-year high in May. Land typically accounts for about a quarter of costs for Brazilian soybean farmers, but — unlike fertilizers and pesticides, global commodities whose prices tend to move in tandem with the dollar — it doesn’t really rise in price when the real weakens. The same goes for spending on labor, tax, and other domestic expenses.

As a result, production in the current crop season is projected to hit a record of more than 5 billion bushels. Corn, whose futures prices also spiked back in May, is also forecast to see record output.

It’s a similar situation in meat. Brazil is the biggest exporter of chicken and beef and the third-biggest of pork, and all three are forecast to see rising production over the coming year, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Exports will total 2.66 million metric tons in the 2022 marketing year, the USDA reported this month, driving Brazil’s share of the global trade from around 18% in 2017 to 22% now. That may be just the start of it: cattle take several years to reach maturity, and the growth rate of Brazil’s herd is faster than that of its exports. Four out of five cows added to the global herd since 2017 have been in Brazil. That suggests further export expansion in the years ahead.

In chicken, the effects have been muted by the way that currency depreciation, pandemic, and inflation have hit living standards. Domestic chicken consumption has surged in recent years to replace beef calories that Brazilians can no longer afford. Even so, output will climb to 4.2 million tons next year.

Only iron ore among Brazil’s major commodity exports has fallen behind. Analysts expect output by state-controlled Vale SA will grow by about 20 million metric tons next year, but company forecasts may come in short of that when they’re presented later this month, Bloomberg News reported. Leading producer Australia will account for a larger share of output growth next year, and a faster pace, too.

The biggest commodity bet over the real, however, is likely to be in coffee. Traditionally, Brazil has been such a dominant producer of the arabica beans from which high-quality brews are made that speculators would use them as a way of placing bets on the real, and vice versa. When the currency weakens, output goes up and arabica prices go down.

That appears to have broken down in recent years. At a time when the real is trading close to record lows, coffee is at its highest levels in a decade. Investors don’t expect this to be an anomaly, either: With reports of poor crop performance from the coffee belt, traders’ net long position in arabica futures is only just below record levels, suggesting they expect prices to rise further.

That’s a bold bet. Brazil’s fiscal turmoil and slumping currency is already roiling and upending markets in soybeans, beef and chicken. Don’t be surprised if it repeats the trick in coffee.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Japan to bar foreign visitors as Omicron worries grow globally

TOKYO/SYDNEY — Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, will close its borders to all foreigners, while Australia’s plans to reopen to skilled migrants were also in doubt as nations scrambled on Monday to rein in the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Markets regained some composure as investors await more details of the variant following a freefall last week after news of its emergence ignited fears that fresh curbs could upend a nascent economic revival from a two-year pandemic.

Potentially more contagious than prior variants, Omicron, first identified in South Africa, has been found in Australia, Belgium, Botswana, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands and South Africa.

It could take “days to several weeks” to understand the level of severity of the variant, says the World Health Organization (WHO), which has dubbed it a “variant of concern.”

Japan will close its borders to all foreigners from Tuesday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said.

“We are (taking measures) with a strong sense of crisis,” he had told reporters earlier, although no Omicron infections have yet been found in Japan.

Australia is to review plans to reopen from Dec. 1 to skilled migrants and students, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Monday, adding it was a “bit too early” to reinstate two-week hotel quarantine for foreign travelers.

“So we just take this one step at a time, get the best information, make calm, sensible decisions,” Mr. Morrison told broadcaster Nine News.

A national security panel was set to meet later in the day to assess border easing due from Wednesday, he added, while leaders of states and territories were set to meet.

Mr. Morrison called for calm as the severity, transmissibility and vaccine resistance of Omicron had not been determined, echoing remarks by the WHO.

Symptoms of Omicron are so far mild and could be treated at home, a South African doctor, one of the first to suspect a different variant, has said.

TRAVEL CURBS
Countries from Indonesia to Saudi Arabia have imposed travel curbs for visitors from southern Africa.

Singapore has deferred the start of vaccinated travel lanes with Middle Eastern countries, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in view of their role as “transport nodes” for affected countries, its health ministry said.

The wealthy southeast Asian city-state and neighboring Malaysia reopened their land border, one of the world’s busiest, allowing vaccinated travelers to cross after a shutdown that lasted nearly two years.

Britain said it would call an urgent meeting of G7 (Group of Seven) health ministers on Monday.

In the most far-reaching effort against the variant, Israel is to ban the entry of foreigners and re-introduce counter-terrorism phone-tracking technology, it has said.

South Africa has denounced the measures as unfair and potentially harmful to the economy, saying it was being punished for its scientific ability to identify variants early.

“The prohibition of travel is not informed by science, nor will it be effective in preventing the spread of this variant,” President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Sunday.

“The only thing (it) will do is to further damage the economies of the affected countries and undermine their ability to respond.”

President Joseph R. Biden will give an update on the variant and the US response on Monday, the White House said in a statement.

It will take about two weeks to get definitive information about the transmissibility and other features of Omicron, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious diseases official, has told Mr. Biden, it added.

Mr. Fauci believes existing vaccines “are likely to provide a degree of protection against severe cases of COVID,” the White House said. — Reuters

Nuclear talks resume as West asks if Iran is serious or stalling

VIENNA — World powers and Iran were set to gather in Vienna on Monday to try to salvage their 2015 nuclear deal, but with Tehran sticking to its tough stance and Western powers increasingly frustrated, hopes of a breakthrough appear slim.

Diplomats say time is running low to resurrect the pact, which then-US President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018, angering Iran and dismaying the other powers involved — Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia.

Six rounds of indirect talks were held between April and June. The new round begins after a hiatus triggered by the election of a new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric.

Tehran’s new negotiating team has set out demands that US and European diplomats consider unrealistic, Western diplomats say.

They include insisting that all US and European Union sanctions imposed since 2017, including those unrelated to Iran’s nuclear program, be dropped.

In parallel, Tehran’s conflicts with the UN atomic watchdog, which monitors the nuclear program, have festered.

Iran has pressed ahead with its uranium enrichment program and the IAEA says its inspectors have been treated roughly and refused access to reinstall monitoring cameras at a site it deems essential to reviving the deal.

“If Iran thinks it can use this time to build more leverage and then come back and say they want something better, it simply won’t work. We and our partners won’t go for it,” US envoy Robert Malley told BBC Sounds on Saturday.

He warned that Washington would be ready to ramp up pressure on Tehran if talks collapse.

Iranian officials have insisted in the run-up to Monday that their focus is purely the lifting of sanctions rather than nuclear issues. Highlighting that, its 40-strong delegation mostly includes economic officials.

“To ensure any forthcoming agreement is ironclad, the West needs to pay a price for having failed to uphold its part of the bargain. As in any business, a deal is a deal, and breaking it has consequences,” Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani said in defiant column in the Financial Times on Sunday.

“The principle of ‘mutual compliance’ cannot form a proper base for negotiations since it was the US government which unilaterally left the deal.”

Diplomats have said Washington has suggested negotiating an open-ended interim accord with Tehran as long as a permanent deal is not achieved.

Failure to strike a deal could also prompt reaction from Israel which has said military options would be on the table.

“The talks can’t last forever. There is the obvious need to speed up the process,” Moscow’s envoy Mikhail Ulyanov said on Twitter. — Reuters

NE Patriots ride Mac Jones’ career day to win over Titans

NEW England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass against the Tennessee Titans in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. — REUTERS

MAC Jones passed for a career-high 310 yards and two touchdowns (TD) as the host New England Patriots (NE) defeated the Tennessee Titans (36-13) for their sixth straight win on Sunday in Foxborough, MA.

The rookie quarterback completed 23 of 32 passes and eclipsed his previous high of 307 yards in New England’s 54-13 rout of the New York Jets on Oct. 24. Kendrick Bourne made a pair of TD catches on Sunday while Jakobi Meyers had a team-high 98 receiving yards for the Patriots (8-4).

The Patriots’ league-leading winning streak is their longest since they opened the 2019 season with eight straight victories.

Dontrell Hilliard rushed for a career-best 131 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries for Tennessee (8-4). The fourth-year rusher was elevated from the practice squad by the injury-depleted Titans ahead of last week’s loss to Houston.

D’Onta Foreman also rushed for 109 yards on 19 carries. Ryan Tannehill passed for 93 yards on 11-of-21 passing with one touchdown and an interception for Tennessee.

It was the Titans’ second straight loss following a six-game winning streak. Tennessee held the No. 1 seed in the conference coming into the day. New England entered as the third seed behind the Baltimore Ravens (7-3), who host Cleveland on Sunday night.

New England led 16-13 at half time. Nick Folk’s fourth of five field goals had the Patriots on top 19-13 early in the third.

Late in the quarter, Jones connected with Bourne for a 41-yard score down the sideline that was set up by a timely block from Meyers.

Folk added a 52-yarder in the fourth quarter before Damien Harris rushed for a 14-yard touchdown with 4:38 remaining to put the game away.

The Patriots scored on their first possession of the game, with Jones hitting Bourne on a 4-yard fade in the corner of the end zone to make it 7-0 with 7:37 left in the first quarter.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine dove low into the end zone on a 1-yard pass from Tannehill with 14:29 to play in the second quarter, but Randy Bullock missed the extra point.

Three straight Folk field goals put the Patriots up 16-6 before Hilliard broke loose for a 68-yard touchdown run with 37 seconds left before half time. — Reuters

James scores 33 points to lead Lakers past Pistons

DETROIT Pistons center Isaiah Stewart (28) is defended by Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) and guard Avery Bradley (20) in the first half at Staples Center. — REUTERS

LEBRON James recorded 33 points and nine assists to help the Los Angeles Lakers notch a 110-106 victory over the visiting Detroit Pistons on Sunday night.

Russell Westbrook had 25 points and nine assists and Anthony Davis contributed 24 points and 10 rebounds as the Lakers won for just the third time in the past eight games.

Jerami Grant scored 32 points but couldn’t prevent Detroit from losing its sixth consecutive game.

Frank Jackson added 17 points, Cade Cunningham registered 15 points and 11 rebounds, Trey Lyles scored 13 points and Hamidou Diallo tallied 10 for the Pistons.

The contest was a rematch of the game in Detroit seven days earlier when James and Detroit’s Isaiah Stewart were involved in a wild fracas that saw James suspended for one game and Stewart for two contests. There were no incidents this time.

Last week in Detroit, the episode began when James struck Stewart in the face with his left fist as the two battled for positioning at the free-throw line. An enraged Stewart attempted to get at James multiple times despite blood flowing out of a huge gash on his face.

Stewart had five points and six rebounds in 27 minutes on Sunday night.

Talen Horton-Tucker added 12 points for the Lakers, who made 50% of their field-goal attempts, including 9 of 32 from 3-point range.

Detroit shot 42.7% from the field and was 13 of 33 from behind the arc.

The Pistons recovered from a 19-point deficit to trail 108-102 on Grant’s basket with 1:21 remaining.

Grant made two free throws to cut the deficit to four with 16.7 seconds left. He later scored on a dunk with 2.1 seconds to play to pull Detroit within 109-106 before Horton-Tucker split two free throws with 0.9 seconds left to put the game away.

Earlier, Grant’s dunk tied the score at 56 with 9:12 left in the third quarter before the Lakers made seven straight shots during a 16-0 burst.

James scored seven points during the run, which was completed by Davis’ dunk with 5:24 left in the period.

Horton-Tucker drained a 3-pointer to increase the advantage to 77-58 with 3:43 remaining but Detroit narrowed its deficit to 83-70 entering the final stanza.

The Pistons made a spirited run and pulled within 99-93 on Jackson’s basket with 4:38 left.

James (15), Westbrook (14) and Davis (13) combined for 42 first-half points as the Lakers led 51-48 at the break. — Reuters

Messi in assist mode as Paris St.-Germain routs 10-man St.-Étienne, 2-0

SAINT-ÉTIENNE, France — Lionel Messi set up all three goals as Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) stretched their Ligue 1 lead to 12 points with a 3-1 comeback win at 10-man Saint-Étienne on Sunday, while Neymar was taken off on a stretcher with a possible ankle injury.

PSG made the most of Timothée Kolodziejczak’s red card on the stroke of half time. Messi fed Marquinhos for two headed goals and Angel Di Maria struck to seal a clinical turnaround after Les Verts had opened the scoring through Denis Bouanga.

The result put the capital side on 40 points from 15 games, with Stade Rennais leapfrogging Nice into second after goals by Gaetan Laborde and Jeremy Doku earned them a 2-0 win at Lorient, their sixth victory in their last seven league games.

St.-Étienne, who mounted a decent challenge despite being a man down as snow fell on the Geoffroy Guichard stadium, is now bottom of the standings with 12 points.

The game marked Sergio Ramos’s debut for PSG, almost five months after joining from Real Madrid as a free agent, and the Spaniard started in central defense alongside Marquinhos. — Reuters