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UK crime agency arrests ‘wealthy Russian’ over money laundering

LONDON — Britain’s National Crime Agency (NCA) said on Saturday it had arrested a “wealthy Russian businessman” on suspicion of money laundering and other offenses as part of a crackdown on corrupt oligarchs.

The NCA said the 58-year-old was among three men arrested by officers from the Combatting Kleptocracy Cell (CKC) on Thursday at a “multi-million-pound residence” in London.

The Russian embassy in London has demanded information from Britain’s Foreign Office on the reasons and circumstances of the detention of the unidentified businessman and the conditions in which he was being held, Russian news agencies said.

The man was detained on suspicion of money laundering, conspiracy to defraud the Home Office (interior ministry) and conspiracy to commit perjury, the NCA said.

A 35-year-old man was arrested at the premises after he was seen leaving with a bag which contained thousands of pounds in cash. A former boyfriend, 39, of the businessman’s partner was also arrested at the property, police said. All three have been released on police bail.

NCA Director General Graeme Biggar said the CKC, which was set up earlier this year to tackle attempts to evade sanctions and to disrupt corrupt elites, was having a significant impact on oligarchs’ criminal activity, the professional service providers that supported them and those linked to the Russian government.

“We will continue to use all the powers and tactics available to us to disrupt this threat,” Biggar said in a statement.

The NCA said it had so far secured nearly 100 “disruptions” — described as actions that demonstrably removed or reduced a criminal threat — against elites linked to President Vladimir Putin and their enablers.

These included a number of asset freezing orders on accounts held by people linked to sanctioned Russians.

Britain has so far sanctioned more than 1,200 individuals and over 120 entities following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. — Reuters

Some leadership gaps and uncertainties

MARKUS SPISKE-UNSPLASH

I am pleased to share with readers the political section of our latest quarterly outlook report for Globalsource Partners (globalsourcepartners.com), a subscriber-based network of independent analysts in emerging market countries, with headquarters in New York. Christine Tang and I are their Philippine Advisers.

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. gave himself a pat in the back for picking the “best and the brightest,” when asked about accomplishments in his first 100 days. Those in business circles would readily agree that he made inspired choices, not only in the core economic departments but also in key line agencies critical to unlocking the economy’s post-pandemic growth potential. Nevertheless, the general sentiment is that his cabinet is a mixed bag and many would be quick to add the hope that he will be able to find a suitable health secretary soon and a replacement for himself in the Agriculture department.

By now, political observers have come to the realization that the President is contented to give free rein to his cabinet in overseeing their respective portfolios. For departments led by any one of the “best and brightest,” this may well be something welcomed. Indeed, one could see the positive outcomes in, for example, financial markets’ buy-in of the fiscal consolidation program, the private sector’s backing of the revised PPP rules, the re-centering of foreign policy after the past two administration’s excessive pro-US then pro-China stances, and the swift actions on the energy front to encourage investments in oil exploration and power generation for energy security.

But while good results go with good leadership, the reverse appears true as well. Regrettably, soaring food prices has put the limelight on the President’s turf, the Agriculture department. Early hopes that he would use his abundant political capital to hold sway over competing entrenched interests in the sector and exert a positive influence on bureaucratic inertia have faded away. Food prices have gone up by nearly 1% per month between the time he took office in July and October, and the price of sugar, the subject of an importation order he called illegal, increased 44% during the four-month period. Even now, we are told that decision makers in the agriculture sector are bickering unendingly over the size of import volumes for specific crops that are in short supply.

In the meantime, over at the Health department where the President has bafflingly said he would appoint a secretary after the health crisis is over, the vaccination drive appears to have lost momentum and it is unclear what the roadmap is for the highly under resourced sector. Currently, both the Health department and PhilHealth, government’s struggling health insurance corporate vehicle, are headed by caretakers who are not empowered to take strategic policy reform decisions.

Given the mixed performance of the administration, dependent as it is on the leadership of individual cabinet members, the question of how President Marcos’ cabinet will evolve in six to 12 months’ time arises. The question has come up not only because the agriculture and health sectors feel rudderless at the moment but also because of two forthcoming developments. One, by mid-year, those who ran and lost in the May elections, who are not allowed by the Constitution to be appointed to government positions within a 12-month period, will become eligible. This will give the President an expanded pool of, possibly, electoral teammates to choose from, and, obversely, open the floodgates to hard lobbying by more political, less qualified office seekers. Two, crucial in a time of financial turbulence, BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) Governor Felipe Medalla, who has won the acclaim of the financial and broad business sector, is merely serving out the remaining term of his predecessor which expires end of June next year. Hopes have been pinned on his appointment to a full term to continue the excellent navigation during this time of global financial turbulence.

Adding to the uncertainty in the business environment is a widely publicized rumor suggesting that the economic team, especially the finance secretary, has lost the confidence of the President. The rumor, possibly orchestrated, followed the sudden appointment of a new chief in the powerful internal revenue bureau, Romeo Lumagui, Jr., a close family associate of the President. Mr. Lumagui replaced Secretary Diokno’s choice, Lilia Guillermo, after less than five months on the job. Ms. Guillermo is a 30-year veteran of the tax bureau, whose last post was as assistant governor in the BSP after serving as undersecretary in the Budget department, both under Secretary Diokno.

The rumor was put to rest after the heads of the leading business organizations, the Makati Business Club, the Management Association of the Philippines, and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, expressed full confidence in Secretary Diokno and the entire economic team, and the President subsequently dismissed it as fake news.

Nonetheless, speculations about changes in the composition of the economic team continue. It has not been lost on financial market players that the most prominently mentioned rumored replacement for Secretary Diokno is a close associate of former president, now congresswoman, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the vice-president and daughter of the former president, Sara Duterte.

*****

And we also made a cautionary observation on a bill being rushed now in Congress.

The hotly debated congressional bill to create a sovereign wealth fund through the pooling of resources of government financial institutions will add to Philippine financial and fiscal risks. The proposal is poorly timed, with external balances under stress and government debt and borrowings elevated, and it raises the specter of Malaysia’s 1MDB scandal, traced ultimately to poor governance.

 

Romeo L. Bernardo was finance undersecretary from 1990-1996. He is a trustee/director of the Foundation for Economic Freedom, the Management Association of the Philippines, and the FINEX Foundation. He also serves as a board director in leading companies in banking and financial services, telecommunication, energy, food and beverage, education, real estate, and others.

romeo.lopez.bernardo@gmail.com

The Maharlika Wealth Fund

ANGIE REYES-PEXELS

The bill establishing the Maharlika Wealth Fund (MWF), described as a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), has taken a severe beating. It has been attacked on all fronts.

Representative Joey Salceda laments that critics are “nagpuputak” (cackling). He may have a point if critics had not read the bill. Yet, many of the criticisms, published or broadcast, are based on a thorough reading of the bill. The critics cut across the Philippine social and political spectrum. Ordinary citizens who pay taxes or make contributions to the Social Security System (SSS) and Government Service Insurance System (GSIS). Investors, bankers, economists, and technocrats. Former senior government officials as well as current high-level government officials who understandably cannot express their position loudly. The Governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Academics and public intellectuals. Civil society organizations representing different strands of political and economic thinking, from the Left-oriented Ibon Foundation to the economic liberal Foundation for Economic Freedom. The media, as exemplified by the editorial of a pro-establishment The Manila Times. And politicians, even those closely associated with the Marcos administration and family. Senator Imee Marcos’ expression says it all: Diyos ko!

Some criticisms are comprehensive. Other criticisms are pinpoint and highlight a specific matter. Among the issues: the actuarial deficiency of the pension system and adverse effect on members of the SSS and GSIS; financial recklessness, loose risk management, weak prudential standards and lack of oversight and accountability; opacity, moral hazard and conflict of interest, corruption and cronyism, diversion of scarce government resources, erosion of independence of the BSP.

To be sure, some criticisms spring from lack of trust, given the dismal historical record of many government-owned corporations. But precisely because of the MWF’s muddled concept and bad design (which this essay will delve into), getting the trust of stakeholders is next to impossible.

In terms of metaphor, a critic using a shotgun will hit many targets since the MWF bill has so many objects to hit. Those who prefer using a sniper rifle can effortlessly hit the bullseye because it is so glaring as not to miss. More, even a cross-eyed shooter will find his mark.

Given the breadth of issues, which requires a voluminous exposition, I focus on the fundamental reasons why the bill must be scrapped. Yes, discarding the bill is the best option, for even amendments will not solve the problem.

The basic problem is that the very concept of the MWF bill is confused. It has been conceptualized as a SWF. But upon closer scrutiny, the bill is far from being the SWF it purports to be. The MWF is a bastardization of the SWF.

Based on the experience of other countries with SWFs, Norway being the leading example, the SWF works when a sovereign has a huge surplus. This huge surplus is then preserved and enhanced for the inter-generational transfer of wealth, structural transformation, and macroeconomic stabilization. In Norway’s case, the surplus coming from its extractive industries has been accumulated over the long term. Other countries, especially those from East Asia, have created SWFs sourced from their big trade surpluses. These countries, through industrial policy, were able to seize the opportunities from global trade and transformed themselves into export-oriented booming economies.

The Philippines does not have the surplus generated from our extractive industries nor from our (underperforming) exports.

We do have at present a comfortable level of foreign exchange reserves, but they still pale in comparison with the reserves of the economies that have had booming trade surpluses like China, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea. Further, at this time of extreme volatility, uncertainty, increasing interest rates, and debt defaults all over the world, we must be prudent and conservative in using those reserves. The first version of the MWF intended to use the foreign exchange reserves, but fortunately, this was removed from the bill’s latest version.

So, how can the Philippines have the SWF (or MWF) when it does not even have a sufficient surplus? What the bill intends to do is transfer resources from other public institutions to the MWF. Thus, the SSS, GSIS, LANDBANK, other government financial institutions (GFIs) or corporations, and even the BSP dividends and the general appropriations, including public borrowing, will be used to finance the MWF. This is not wealth creation; this is transferring resources from one pocket to another. This means costly trade-offs, huge opportunity costs, and gross inefficiencies.

Another basic problem is that the proposed MWF strays from the core principles behind the SWF, namely enabling inter-generational transfer of wealth, structural transformation, and macroeconomic stabilization. The bill as worded limits its concern to having “consistent and stable investment returns” and “pooling the investible funds from the GFIs and channeling them to diversified financial assets and development projects.”

But these functions can be done even without creating the MWF. In effect, the bill is not establishing the SWF but a new government corporation, named the Maharlika Wealth Fund Corp. (MWFC). But this government corporation is a redundancy. Worse, the creation of this new government corporation will undermine if not destroy the other GFIs.

Related to this, the MWF, based, too, on the pronouncements of its champions, is going to be used for present projects, particularly infrastructure. It is reported that the President wants to finance dams and the national grid. The policy debate on what is good infrastructure can be set aside. But infrastructure and ordinary development spending can be funded through the National Government budget. Further, present infrastructure spending in itself is not about what SWF stands for: inter-generational wealth transfer, macroeconomic stabilization, or structural transformation.

What makes matters worse is that using the MWF — which involves the funds from the pension system — to finance present development projects is detrimental to the people’s welfare. The funds from the SSS and GSIS are the assets of their members. The SSS and GSIS are fiduciaries and hence must ensure that the resources they manage will be protected and optimized. But using SSS and GSIS resources for investment in public goods will not lead to a higher return for private individuals — the SSS and GSIS members. Sure, infrastructure can lead to high social returns, that is, the benefits are for the whole of society. That is different from the role of SSS and GSIS, which is to protect and boost the benefits of individual members.

The MWF will likewise destroy the credibility and effectiveness of other financial institutions, especially the BSP. Involving the BSP in the MWF will lead to potential conflict of interest, with BSP being part owner of the financial assets and being a regulator. It will likewise weaken the BSP’s independence.

We reiterate some fundamentals discussed above. The creation of a corporation for the MWF, as demonstrated, is redundant. The entity itself is far from being a SWF. The bill’s concept of the SWF is muddled.

And the last fundamental issue: The entity being set up violates the cardinal rules of good governance, risk management, and prudential care. Consider the following (based on the bill’s draft as of Dec. 1, 2022):

Section 4: “The regulatory restrictions on GFIs with respect to the asset class, type, term, and allocation of their investments shall not apply to funds invested in the MWF.”

Section 16: “The President of the Philippines shall sit as the Chairperson.”

Section 28: “MWFC and MWF shall be exempt from local and national taxes, direct and indirect, that may be imposed under the Local Government Code of 1991, and the National Internal Revenue Code of 1997.”

Section 29: “[T]he MWF Investments’ transactions, as well as the necessary connected or related transactions, shall be exempt from the provisions of Republic Act No. 9184, otherwise known as the ‘Government Procurement Reform Act,’ and Republic Act No. 10667, otherwise known as the ‘Philippine Competition Act,’ and their respective IRRs [Implementing Rules and Regulations].

“The MWFC shall be exempt from Republic Act No. 7656, otherwise known as the ‘Dividends Law of 1994.’ The Board shall determine the dividend policy of the MWFC.

“Contracts or agreements to be entered into by the MWFC shall be exempt from the laws, rules, or regulations requiring review by the Office of the Government Corporate Counsel.

“Access to the records shall be upon approval of the Board of Directors or by express provision of the law.”

All these sections make the MWF and MWFC most vulnerable to abetting recklessness, politicization, corruption, rent-seeking, and cronyism. The elimination of basic safeguards will likely lead to a Pharmally redux.

Whatever lofty intention the bill has can be done under existing institutions and mechanisms. What government must do improve is development spending by making the current budget less wasteful and less discretionary and more efficient and productive. Similarly, government can enhance the fiscal space by increasing revenues through a combination of new taxes that are efficient policy and tax administration.

Thus, scrap the bill.

 

Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III coordinates the Action for Economic Reforms.

www.aer.ph

Are China’s glory days coming to an end?

PEXELS-LARA JAMESON

China’s rise as an economic powerhouse is arguably the most spectacular story of the early 21st century. But are China’s glory days coming to an end?

China faces a demographic crisis that threatens its economic and military supremacy. The culprit? Low birth rates and an ageing population — a two edge sword that carry dire consequences.

These consequences include an insufficient workforce to sustain its manufacturing sector, a sector that constitutes 38% of its economy. A diminishing base of customers to sustain consumer demand. And, in defense, a scarcity of young able people to sustain the fighting power of its armed forces.

China’s demographic crisis can be traced to the One-Child Policy imposed in 1980 by Chairman Deng Xiaoping. The policy was imposed following the tremendous baby boom which saw China’s population grow from 540 million in 1949 to 969 million in 1980. Back then China was an agricultural economy whose output was not enough to support its rapidly growing dependents. Without population control, a hunger, housing, and healthcare crisis was sure to occur.

China’s Communist Party restricted couples to a single offspring and imposed steep fines for violators. And should parents fail to pay the fine, the second child would not be registered in the national household system. This meant the child would not legally exist and would be denied access to social services like healthcare and education. Civil servants and employees of government-affiliated organizations risked losing their jobs if they were found to have more than one child. The policy pushed women who were accidentally impregnated to get an abortion.

The One China Policy succeeded in retarding population growth. In fact, it is largely credited for China’s meteoric rise in per capita income in the decades that followed. But it created a culture among young Chinese of having small families, a culture that persists today.

For those who are unaware, there need to be at least 2.1 births per woman in order to maintain a population at constant levels. Since the enforcement of the One-Child Policy, birthrates in China have steadily declined, bottoming out at 1.3 per woman in 2020. In other words, the Chinese population is not being replaced and is on the path to decline. Meanwhile, the segment of those of retirement age is expanding exponentially.

Alarmed, Chinese policy makers officially ended the One Child on Jan. 1, 2016 and replaced it with a law allowing married couples to have a second child. Mysteriously, the words “family planning” disappeared from government’s lexicon.

China’s 2020 census confirmed that Chinese mothers gave birth to just 12 million babies in 2020, down from 14.65 million in 2019. With that, Beijing announced in May 2021 that it would allow couples to have three children.

But the ethos of having small families had already been deeply ingrained in Chinese culture. A survey conducted by China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that Chinese women, in general, were only willing to have 1.8 children during their lifetime. A lack of affordable childcare, rising living costs, and grueling work hours has been cited as some of the reasons making many young Chinese think twice about having any children, let alone more than one.

As of the end of 2021, China’s population stood at 1.41 billion people. The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicts an annual average decline of 1.1% after 2021. This will pull China’s population down to 587 million by the end of this century, less than half of what it is today. The assumptions behind this prediction is that China’s fertility rate will slip from 1.15 to 1.1 between now and 2030, and remain there until 2100.

Exacerbating matters is gender imbalance. The One-Child Policy led to gender-selective abortions or infanticide targeting girls. This was due to a centuries-old social preference for boys. As a result, there are 37 million more men than women as of last year. Among the menfolk are millions of “bare branches” or unpartnered men without children who belong to the marginalized sector. Studies show that an inordinate number of bare branches in a community leads criminality, gambling, and prostitution. All these contribute to the collapse of Chinese culture and traditions.

The silver generation, or those above 60 years old, have become China’s fastest growing demographic. As of 2019, the elderly comprised 18.1% of the population. This number is seen to increase to 25% by 2030 and 35% by 2050.

A country’s Demographic Dependence Ratio measures the relationship between those aged zero to 14 and over 65 against the population aged 15 to 64, or those of working age. This indicator reveals the proportion of people of working age against those who are dependents. As of 2021, China had a dependence ratio of 42.87%. This amount is forecast to increase to well over 90% by 2050. In other words, for every 10 Chinese who are too young or too old to work and contribute to the economy, there will only be one person in the workforce working to sustain them.

One can imagine the social burden on government, what with pension and healthcare costs to contend. As it stands, China’s 7 trillion yuan pension fund is seen to be depleted by 2035. There will be a deficit in the pension system after that since benefits (disbursements) outpace contributions.

How can China overcome its demographic crisis? It can lean on technology to wean itself from dependence on manual labor. But this can only go so far and could never replace the might of a strong and plentiful workforce. It can also open its borders to immigration. But with a repressive communist government, China will be hard-pressed to attract young talent who prefer free, democratic countries to live in.

The only other way China can circumvent its demographic crisis is through annexation. This is another reason why the invasion of Taiwan is important to Beijing. But this is a topic for another piece. Suffice it to say that if China is unable to replace its workforce, its demise as an economic and military power is imminent.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

andrew_rs6@yahoo.com

Facebook@AndrewJ.Masigan

Twitter@aj_masigan

The tragedy of avoidable COVID deaths

PEXELS-ANNA SHVETS

WHOSE pandemic strategy really saved lives? Which states or countries lost the most people to the virus? Or to the unintended consequences of mitigation efforts? Now there’s finally some clear, objective data emerging from the fog.

The most telling statistic turns out to be the simplest: all-cause mortality. Tallies of who died, when and where can be used to calculate “excess mortality” — how many more people died in a given place and time period than would be expected. By contrast, official COVID-19 death statistics are clouded by differences in testing and a level of subjectivity doctors say is required to give a cause of death for people who had multiple health problems.

As early as the fall of 2020, statisticians were looking at all-cause mortality to try to figure out whether official COVID-19 deaths were overcounted or undercounted. But today, the death data are more complete, and cover enough time to make revealing comparisons between different periods and regions. While researchers are still figuring out which factors swayed these death statistics, a few conclusions are becoming clear: First, that COVID has been a global tragedy, causing millions of deaths. Second, that vaccines have saved countless lives. And third, that during the omicron and delta waves, the value of any non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures — masking, distancing, closing businesses and schools — was probably not nothing, but vaccination rates mattered far, far more.

One recently released analysis, not yet peer reviewed, concluded that in the US there were 1.17 million excess deaths from March 1, 2020 to Feb. 28, 2022 — a death rate that’s about 20% above the normal number of deaths (5,817,974) for that period. That’s higher than the official COVID death count. Excess mortality “is the most agnostic metric because it doesn’t ask you to make decisions,” said Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine doctor at Brigham and Women’s hospital and co-author of the analysis. “It just asks you to say, are these deaths normal?”

Looking at excess death data has allowed Faust and his collaborators to examine deaths by time period, region, gender, age, and race, all broken down into the five or six waves of the pandemic. “We were really looking to say not just how big is this problem, but where is this problem?” he said, “And what does that tell us about our society and how we are responding?”

For example, comparisons made by Faust’s team across different counties in Massachusetts showed excess deaths clustered in areas with low vaccination rates. In their nationwide analysis, they found the South had the most excess deaths and the lowest vaccine uptake. (Whether you’re comparing counties, states, or countries, excess deaths shouldn’t depend on factors such as population age or overall health because the statistic compares the actual number of deaths in each region with the typical number of deaths in that same region, said Yale cardiologist Harlan Krumholz, co-author of the preprint.)

Faust and his team was also able to show that Native Americans, Black, and Hispanic Americans died in disproportionate numbers, and that men showed more excess deaths than women. And, in a surprising twist, while many more elderly people died by sheer numbers, the rate of excess death was higher among people under 50. That is, the death rate among those under 50 was more abnormal than the deaths of those over 65.

Comparing countries can be even more revealing. Another study, published this month in the Journal of the American Medical Association, showed much more excess mortality in the US than was seen in a number of other wealthy countries during the delta and omicron waves.

That study tracked the period after June 2021, when vaccines were widely available in these countries. The US had the most excess deaths, at 145.5 excess deaths per 100,000 people. The next-worst country was Finland with 82.2. The best two were Sweden, with 32.4, and New Zealand, with only 5.1 excess deaths per 100,000. The 10 most-vaccinated US states appeared comparable to much of Europe at 65.1, while the least-vaccinated states had an excess death rate of 193.3. Numbers like these should help puncture the myth, persistent in some communities, that the vaccines themselves caused a significant number of deaths — that’s simply not true.

Some of these rankings and statistics could seed new studies. There’s more work to be done to understand why Sweden had fewer excess deaths than any European country studied, and Finland had more. Putting it into context, though, lead author Alyssa Bilinski of Brown University sent me statistics for the pre-vaccine period, where Finland suffered fewer excess deaths than Sweden, which had more lax restrictions than its neighbors. That might mean the restrictions imposed in Finland, but not Sweden, helped before the vaccines, but not afterwards, and might suggest Sweden did a better job of quickly getting the vaccines to the most vulnerable.

Vaccination rates were comparable across most European countries, but big differences in excess deaths might hinge on how efficiently these countries got those vaccines into the arms of the most vulnerable, and how well boosters were rolled out during the delta and omicron waves.

The US fared far worse than any of the other countries studied, and New Zealand fared better. New Zealand had the lowest excess death rate before the vaccine rollout as well, and the US came in second worst, next to Italy. Some of those differences may have to do with how badly hospitals were overwhelmed and whether countries were able to do anything to protect nursing home residents, as well as bad luck in getting hit early in 2020.

Bilinski’s team also calculated how many US lives would have been saved if we’d done as well as the other countries. There could be 465,747 more Americans alive today if we’d done as well as New Zealand and 375,159 alive if we’d done as well as Sweden.

Of course, there are variables that are hard to control, including the timing of waves — how they coincided with seasonal patterns and waning immunity.

But the parts we can control should become clearer as more scientists study these overall death rates. Right away, it was apparent that the most vaccinated parts of the US had fewer excess deaths.

It would have been impossible for any country to get through the pandemic unscathed, but excess death statistics can show how much better the situation could have been. “This gives you a plausible counter-factual” said Bilinski. She said comparisons can also help focus on successes — whose actions weakened what would have been a category 5 hurricane to hit as a category 3. Those lessons could save lives in future waves of COVID, or the next pandemic.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Palanca winners recognized after two-year hiatus

Dr. Nicanor G. Tiongson

Filipino writers, poets, and playwrights play an important role in countering and correcting falsehoods running rampant in an extremely polarized public sphere, said Dr. Nicanor G. Tiongson, guest of honor at the 70th Carlos Palanca Memorial Awards for Literature awarding ceremony. 

“Tiyakin natin na ang ating isinasalaysay, bagaman fiction, ay hango sa maingat at malalim na pananaliksik at laging ginagabayan ng kamalayang Pilipino na makatao (Let’s make sure that what we narrate, although fiction, is based on careful and deep research and always guided by Philippine human consciousness),” said Mr. Tiongson in his speech at the Marquis Events Place in Bonifacio Global City on Wednesday night. 

A professor emeritus of the University of the Philippines (UP) Film Institute and former dean of the UP Diliman College of Mass Communication, Mr. Tiongson said Darryl Yap’s 2022 film Maid in Malacañang is a prime example of what writers must fight against. 

With a story that manipulates people’s emotions, the controversial film about the Marcoses should be fact-checked and received with a critical mind, he said. 

HIATUS
After a two-year hiatus, the Palanca Awards resumed its annual ceremony recognizing Filipinos who exhibit the gold standard in writing excellence. Its committee received 1,455 entries but awarded only 59 writers, of which 28 are first-time awardees. 

The total number of writing categories awarded was 22, as the Novel and Nobela categories were open this year. These categories are open only every two years.  

Lawyer-educator Atty. Raymundo T. Pandan, Jr., was awarded the Novel category grand prize for Bittersweetland, described as “a novel for Negros, for its people, for the crop which sustains us and which we must sustain to endure, also to endure our bittersweet life.” 

Meanwhile, filmmaker-musician Khavn dela Cruz emerged as grand prize winner in the Nobela category for ANTIMARCOS, which is “a base for the comprehensive exploration of the limits of the Filipino language, employing a myriad of tones and styles towards a destructive synthesis of genres, formulas, and taboos,” based on the novel’s synopsis. 

In the Kabataan Division, the youngest winners are twelve-year-old twin sisters Glorious Zavannah Exylin C. Alesna and Glorious Zahara Exylin C. Alesna, who took home the first prizes for the Filipino and English essay categories respectively. 

“In the 70th year of this tradition, may our so-called tribe or community of exemplary writers continue to provide lessons and vigorous examples of nation-building,” said Criselda Cecilio-Palanca, in a speech representing the family behind the award. 

Established in 1950 in memory of Don Carlos Palanca Sr., the Palanca Awards aims to develop Philippine literature by providing incentives for writers, serve as a treasury of Philippine literary gems, and assist in their dissemination. — Brontë H. Lacsamana

Here is the complete list of winners at the 70th Palanca Awards: 

FILIPINO DIVISION 

  • NOBELA 
    • Grand Prize — ANTIMARCOS by Khavn 
    • Special Prize — Teorya ng Unang Panahon by Edgar Calabia Samar 
  • MAIKLING KUWENTO
    • 1st prize — “Ang Value ng X Kapag Choppy si Mam” by Charmaine M. Lasar 
    • 2nd Prize — “Barangay Alitaptap” by Abegail E. Pariente 
    • 3rd Prize — “Kung sa Bawat Pagtawag ay Pagtawid sa Dagat” by Alec Joshua B. Paradeza 
  • MAIKLING KUWENTONG PAMBATA
    • 1st prize — “Si VeRaptor1 Laban kay Trolakuz” by Mark Norman S. Boquiren
    • 2nd Prize — “Balong Batsit, ang Bidang Bulilit at Bayaning Bulinggit” by Wilfredo Farrales Sarangaya
    • 3rd Prize — “Mirasol para kay Lola Sol” by Benedick N. Damaso
  • SANAYSAY
    • 1st prize — “Kung Magkapalad Ka’t Mangmang” by Venice Kayla Dacanay Delica
    • 2nd Prize — “Tatlong Pancit Canton” by Jhon Lester P. Sandigan
    • 3rd Prize — “Isang Dekadang Kontrata sa Piling ng mga Mikrobyo” by Nathaniel R. Alcantara
  • TULA
    • 1st prize — “Uyayi ng mga Patay na Buwan” by Ralph Lorenz G. Fonte, M.D.
    • 2nd Prize — “Pintula” by Enrique S. Villasis
    • 3rd Prize — “Mga Anino sa Guho at iba pang mga tula” by Sonny C. Sendon
  • TULA PARA SA MGA BATA
    • 1st prize — “Tula, Tula, Paano ka Ginawa?” by Christian R. Vallez 
    • 2nd Prize — “Ale Bangbang” by Rebecca T. Anonuevo 
    • 3rd Prize — “Mga Pahina sa Alaala ng Nanay” by Ninia H. dela Cruz
  • DULANG MAY ISANG YUGTO
    • 1st prize — Punks Not Dead by Andrew Bonifacio L. Clete 
    • 2nd Prize — Dance of the Foolies by Layeta P. Bucoy 
    • 3rd Prize — Huling Haraya nina Ischia at Emeteria by Ryan Machado
  • DULANG GANAP ANG HABA
    • 1st prize — Mga Silid ng Unos: Tomo Uno by Joshua Lim So 
    • 2nd Prize — Anak Datu by Rodolfo C. Vera 
    • 3rd Prize — Badung by Steven Prince C. Fernandez
  • DULANG PAMPELIKULA
    • 1st prize — Amoy Pulbos by Avelino Mark C. Balmes, Jr. 
    • 2nd Prize — DOS by Noreen Besmar Capili 
    • 3rd Prize — Ang Pananalangin sa Getsemani by Ehdison M. Dimen 

ENGLISH DIVISION 

  • NOVEL 
    • Grand Prize — Bittersweetland by Raymundo T. Pandan, Jr. 
    • Special Prize — 1762 by Alvin Dela Serna Lopez 
  • SHORT STORY 
    • 1st prize — “Ceferina in Apartment 2G” by Ian Rosales Casocot 
    • 2nd Prize — “Ardor” by Exie Abola 
    • 3rd Prize — “The Money Changer” by Hammed Bolotaolo 
  • SHORT STORY FOR CHILDREN: 
    • 1st prize — NO WINNER 
    • 2nd Prize — “Cloud Keeper” by Elyrah L. Salanga-Torralba
    • 3rd Prize — “My Grandma who lives in Half a House” by Heather Ann Ferrer Pulido 
  • ESSAY
    • 1st prize — “Letter from Tawi-Tawi” by Atom Araullo 
    • 2nd Prize — “Filipino Millennial Monomyth” by Michaela Sarah De Leon 
    • 3rd Prize — “The Helmsman’s Daughter” by Alexandra Francesca A. Bichara
  • POETRY
    • 1st prize — “Bol-anon Prodigal” by Ramil Digal Gulle 
    • 2nd Prize — “A Few Dawns from now, A Sunfish” by Soleil David 
    • 3rd Prize — “The Blueline by Lawrence” Anthony R. Bernabe 
  • POETRY WRITTEN FOR CHILDREN
    • 1st prize — “An Empty Chair in the Corner” by Elyrah L. Salanga-Torralba 
    • 2nd Prize — “Picnic, Symphony and other concepts a 4th Grader needs to know” by Peter Solis Nery 
    • 3rd Prize — NO WINNER
  • ONE-ACT PLAY
    • 1st prize — The Cave Dwellers by Ronald S. Covar 
    • 2nd Prize — Salvaged Eman by Bonifacio P. Ilagan 
    • 3rd Prize — Agencia Feliz by Maria Kristine B. Roxas-Miller
  • FULL-LENGTH PLAY
    • 1st prize — Orgullo Compound by Layeta P. Bucoy 
    • 2nd Prize — Black Bordello by Jay Mariano Crisostomo IV 
    • 3rd Prize — The Lost Filipino Patriots of America by Dustin Edward D. Celestino 

REGIONAL DIVISION 

  • SHORT STORY-CEBUANO
    • 1st prize — “Barang” by Noel P. Tuazon 
    • 2nd Prize — “Ikigai” by Manu Avenido 
    • 3rd Prize — “John Wayne ug ang Goldfish kong Inahan” by Januar E. Yap 
  • SHORT STORY-HILIGAYNON: 
    • 1st prize — “Ang Macatol Kag Ang ‘Queen of Relief’” by Peter Solis Nery 
    • 2nd Prize — “Malipayon nga Katapusan” by Early Sol A. Gadong 
    • 3rd Prize — “Esperanza” by Ritchie D. Pagunsan
  • SHORT STORY-ILOKANO
    • 1st prize — “Ti Kimat Ken Ti Silag” by Oswald Ancheta Valente 
    • 2nd Prize — “Ti Ubing” by Remedios S. Tabelisma-Aguillon 
    • 3rd Prize — “Karton” by Rodolfo D. Agatep Jr. 

KABATAAN DIVISION 

  • SANAYSAY 
    • 1st prize — “Pamimintana” by Glorious Zavannah Exylin C. Alesna 
    • 2nd Prize — “Ang Larong Naipanalo Ko” by Hansly Kendrich C. Saw 
    • 3rd Prize — “Mga Bantas ang Nagsilbi kong Guro” by John Clarence D. Espedido 
  • ESSAY 
    • 1st prize — “Home is a Bowl of Warm Soup” by Glorious Zahara Exylin C. Alesna 
    • 2nd Prize — “Covid-19 is My Alter Ego” by Jenine A. Santos 
    • 3rd Prize — “The Social Pandemic” by Gavin Micah T. Herrera 

 

World Bank chief says poorest countries owe $62B on bilateral debt

WASHINGTON — The world’s poorest countries now owe $62 billion in annual debt service to official bilateral creditors, an increase of 35% over the past year, World Bank President David Malpass said on Thursday, warning that the increased burden is increasing the risk of defaults.

Mr. Malpass told the Reuters NEXT conference in New York that two thirds of this debt burden is now owed to China, providing some details of the development lender’s annual debt statistics report due next week. 

“I’m worried about a disorderly default process where there’s not a system to really address” debts for poorer countries, Mr. Malpass said. 

Mr. Malpass also said he was concerned about a buildup of debt in advanced economies such as the United States, because this is drawing more capital away from developing countries. 

“And so as the interest rates go up, the debt service goes up for the advanced economies, and that requires a big amount of capital from the world.” 

CHINA MEETING 

Mr. Malpass said that he would join a meeting in China next week with heads of other international institutions and Chinese authorities to discuss the country’s approach to debt relief for poorer countries, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) policies, property sector turmoil, and other economic issues. 

“China’s one of the big creditors, so … it’s very important that China engage on this issue and think about where it sees the world going and be responsive to work with what needs to be done to achieve sustainability for the countries.” 

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva also will participate in the meeting, which will focus heavily on debt treatments. Among the participants will be officials from China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, two of the country’s major bilateral lenders. 

Ms. Georgieva separately told Reuters Next that changes to the G20 Common Framework on debt restructuring were needed to speed up debt treatments, freeze debt service payments once a country requested help, and open the process to middle-income countries like Sri Lanka. 

“We are concerned that there is a risk for confidence in debt resolution to be eroded at a time when the level of debt is very high,” Ms. Georgieva said. 

“We don’t see at this point … a risk of a systemic debt crisis,” she said, adding that countries in debt distress were not large enough to trigger a crisis that would threaten financial stability. — Reuters

 

As economy stutters, China’s youth seek safety of civil service

REUTERS

BEIJING — As a physics student at the elite Peking University in Beijing, Lynn Lau was expecting big Chinese private sector companies to scour the campus this summer for upcoming talent.

But with the world’s second-largest economy growing at its slowest rate in decades, many recruiters stayed away this year.

The wishes of Ms. Lau’s parents that she had a “safe” civil service career suddenly made more sense.

“Last year, I feel my older classmates by this point had already got offers from big companies but then these same companies this year have just been in wait-and-see mode,” Ms. Lau said.

Ms. Lau is among more than 2.6 million people state media said have signed up for the nationwide civil service exam, competing for a record 37,000 central government jobs and tens of thousands of other provincial and city government posts.

Those jobs are drawing record interest this year even as cash-strapped administrations in some cities cut wages, in a sign that economic weakness in zero-COVID China is becoming endemic. State news agency Xinhua said some posts had as many as 6,000 candidates fighting for them, while the average was around 70 to one.

Private firms in tech, finance or tutoring are shedding tens of thousands of jobs and youth unemployment this year hit a record 20%.

An unprecedented 11.6 million students, equal to the entire population of Belgium, are expected to graduate next year.

Finding them jobs will be one of the biggest challenges for the Communist Party, which points to the staggering prosperity China has seen over the past four decades to justify its monopoly on power.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, says the preference for civil servant jobs has surged.

“The reasons are obvious: the negative sentiment, the fear of the future,” she said.

Those in the private sector are finding conditions more demanding in an economy battered by COVID-19 lockdowns, a property market downturn and soft demand for exports, with long hours and lots of stress.

On social media, young Chinese refer to the civil service as “the end of the universe,” meaning the safest place around in such an environment.

However, the exam was due on Dec. 3–4 but has since been postponed due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks and no new date has been announced, adding to the stress.

In WeChat groups, students share tips on how to improve their scores and offer each other emotional support as they await word and try to prepare.

Shangshang, a 21-year-old college senior in the Yunnan province who declined to give her full name, said a government role would lower the risk of “implosion” — a term young Chinese often use to describe overwhelming pressure at work.

“Being a civil servant gives you a lot of stability,” she said.

 

TIGHT BUDGETS

Civil servant jobs in China have been in high demand for thousands of years as a sure way for those with high scores at the five-hour, multidisciplinary exam to move up the social ladder.

To this day, families take pride in their children joining the 55 million people state enterprise sector, or the civil service, which according to the latest data in 2015 was more than 7 million strong and is likely much bigger now.

Those jobs on average pay more than 100,000 yuan ($14,000) a year, but can be 3–4 times that in big coastal cities. That’s often much more than what similar private sector roles pay, and tend to come with housing subsidies and other perks.

That has helped them remain popular despite city governments in several provinces, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zheijiang, and Fujian, cutting pay by up to a third this year, according to at least six civil servants and some local media articles.

It is unclear how widely spread the state sector pay cuts are across China, but provincial governments — hit by the property downturn and COVID costs — are grappling with a $1 trillion budget shortfall this year.

City clerks go home with less money “by no fault of their own, but simply because of severe fiscal challenges,” one Guangzhou government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

“This year may be the worst of the past 10 years but it could be the best of the coming 10,” the official said.

 

SAFER INSIDE 

Jane Kang, who works in a county-level prosecutor office in the Fujian province, says her 110,000–120,000 yuan a year salary will be 10-15% lower in 2022. That makes her unhappy, but she sees limited options to improve her condition.

“If I can’t leave the country, then I will remain in the system,” Ms. Kang said. “If you work in the system, you have more job security than ordinary people working outside of it.”

The work environment has deteriorated as well, some government employees say.

One government employee in Guangzhou said her bosses demand she only commutes between home and the office to minimize COVID risks, even during times when the rest of the city’s population can move more freely.

“I want to go to a park, want to eat in restaurant, and to have a haircut,” she said.

Ms. Chen, a 25-year-old law student in Guangzhou, is aware of the pay cuts and restrictions but insists a state job is her best option and studies six to eight hours a day for the exam.

“The present state of the job market has definitely increased my desire to become a civil servant,” she said. — Reuters

 

When the chips go up: Big banks bet on S. Korea, Taiwan stocks for 2023

Global banks are turning bullish on South Korean and Taiwanese shares, expecting a revival in semiconductors to drive a rally next year, while they see Japan’s market as resilient thanks in part to its weak currency.

The calls come as US rates are still rising, with most markets around the world eyeing their worst annual returns since the 2008 global financial crisis and with chipmakers’ profits cratering.

Goldman Sachs says South Korean stocks are the bank’s top “rebound candidate” for 2023 due to low valuations, made cheaper by a nosediving Korean won, and as companies benefit from an expected recovery in Chinese demand. It expects a 2023 return in dollar terms of 30%.

Morgan Stanley also gives Korea top billing. Together with Taiwan, it is the best place to be, says the bank, as the two markets have a reputation as “early-cycle” leaders in the demand recovery.

Bank of America, UBS, Societe Generale, and Deutsche Bank’s wealth manager DWS are all bullish on Korean stocks, with analysts’ conviction in that trade lying in sharp contrast to its divided view on India and China.

“In the semiconductor area, demand should bottom in the first quarter of next year and the market always starts to run before that,” said DWS’ Asia-Pacific chief investment officer, Sean Taylor, who added Korean exposure in recent months.

“We think (Korean stocks) sold off too much in September and August.”

South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index has lost about 17% so far this year and the won has declined 9%, though both have shown signs of recovery in recent months.

Goldman Sachs also noted that five years of selling has driven foreign ownership of Korean stocks to its lowest level since 2009, but inflows of about $6 billion since end-June “indicates a turn in foreign interest” that could lift the market further.

Societe Generale’s recommendation for investors to increase their exposure to Korea and Taiwan comes at the expense of China, India, and Indonesia. Goldman’s preference for Korean stocks comes as it has suggested a reduction in Brazil exposure. Morgan Stanley downgraded its view on Indian exposure in October, when it upgraded its recommendation for South Korea.

Morgan Stanley is most bullish on chipmakers turning out commoditized low-cost chips as well as chips destined for consumer goods — including companies such as Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix. Morgan Stanley has a price target for SK Hynix about 50% above the current share price.

RISK-REWARD

Taiwan and Japan offer attractions for some similar and some novel reasons. Like South Korea, Taiwan is another heavily-sold and chip-maker dominated market — though tensions with China make some investors a bit less enthusiastic.

Goldman Sachs is underweight Taiwanese stocks, citing geopolitical risk, while Bank of America is neutral and its most recent survey of Asian fund managers shows they are bearish.

Japan also offers chips exposure as well as some security and diversification, with the weak yen also a tailwind for exporters and typically a boon for equities.

“A sustained stay at such undervalued levels, as expected by our FX strategists, augurs well for Japan equities,” said Bank of America analysts, who recommend overweight allocation to Japan. Morgan Stanley, DWS, UBS are also positive, as is Goldman Sachs, especially for the second half when it forecasts inflows.

There is less agreement when it comes to China, where big investors seem to be in a wait-and-see mode, or India where investment houses feel an 8% rally for the benchmark Sensex has left valuations a bit pricey.

To be sure, much of the banks’ investment calls rest on assumptions that US interest rates eventually stop going up and China eventually relaxes its COVID rules.

Meanwhile, Taiwan and South Korea are both geopolitical flashpoints — but analysts argue at least some of that is already in the price.

“There has been some political issue in both Korea and Taiwan for a long time,” said Societe Generale’s head of Asia equity strategy, Frank Benzimra.

“Things can always get worse,” he said. “But in terms of the risk-reward, what we find is that a number of the lowly valued markets, whether it’s Korea or Taiwan … have more limited downside because of the accumulation of bad news that we have seen over the last 12 months.” — Reuters

 

Medalla voices caution over plans to create $4.9B sovereign fund

BW FILE PHOTO

Central bank governor Felipe M. Medalla on Friday voiced caution over a legislative proposal to create a sovereign wealth fund overseen by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., saying transparency over its governance would be key.

Mr. Medalla, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, said a key concern for him would be how the fund would be managed and by whom, and to what extent it would affect the independence of the central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Mr. Medalla cited Malaysia’s experience with the scandal-tainted state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) as the “biggest risk” in creating such a fund.

1MDB raised billions of dollars in bonds, ostensibly for investment projects and joint ventures, between 2009 and 2013. Malaysian authorities, however, believe more than $4.5 billion were allegedly misappropriated from the fund by high-level officials and their associates in an elaborate globe-spanning criminal scheme.

“Key to me is the governance issue,” Mr. Medalla said.

The legislation, whose principal authors include Mr. Marcos’ cousin, the current house speaker, and his eldest son, also a member of the lower house representing his home province, names the Philippine president as chairman of the board that will oversee the fund.

The fund would serve as another source of liquidity for development projects. It would be created using P275 billion ($4.91 billion) in seed money from five agencies, including state-run pension funds. Subsequent contributions would come from other government institutions, including the BSP.

“If they say we will take the central bank’s dollars…we will have less ammunition the next time there is international volatility,” Mr. Medalla said.

The bill proposes that the fund may invest in various types of instruments including, cash, foreign currencies, metals, tradeable commodities, bonds, Islamic investments, and listed or unlisted equities.

A lower house committee has approved the bill, and its backers are targeting to complete its third and final reading before a Christmas break on Dec. 17. The senate has yet to file a counterpart measure, which is required to pass the legislation, along with the president’s approval.

Investment analyst Aaron Say told ANC news channel the bill should be “close to airtight in transparency.” — Reuters

 

FTX collapse crushes crypto dreams in Africa and beyond

REUTERS

LAGOS/BANGKOK — Days before his FTX cryptocurrency exchange collapsed, co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted “Hello, West Africa!” — his latest nod to a region where a growing number of kitchen table investors had put their faith, and savings, in FTX.

In South Africa, Nigeria, and Ghana, FTX held a series of swish events in the months leading up to its bankruptcy filing in the United States on Nov. 11, which sent shockwaves through the crypto world and major coin prices plummeting.

At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from the collapsed crypto exchange, Reuters reported, and it is now the subject of investigations by authorities in the Bahamas — where it was based — for “criminal misconduct.”

In Nigeria, where many young people see cryptocurrency as offering a chance for income amid economic woes including double-digit inflation and high unemployment, FTX’s demise has been painful.

“It hurts more than I can express,” said Osarieme Aghedo, who works in marketing at a Nigerian startup and had $8,720 in FTX as news of its implosion circulated on Twitter.

He tried in vain to withdraw his money, which he had hoped to use to buy a car next year.

Mr. Aghedo said he had been trading in digital currencies since 2017, and had lost money before as their values dipped.

But the FTX loss has hit him harder, he said, because he thought it was “risk free” and kept his savings there.

Like him, many Africans used FTX as a bank, as it offered 8% annual interest rate on the stablecoin stored on the platform. Customers also used FTX to convert their local currencies to dollars.

Even as regulators crack down on crypto, people in developing nations are embracing virtual currencies to avoid high commissions on remittances, and to preserve their savings in times of hyper inflation and political instability.

Many exchanges have courted users in Africa, and crypto adoption is growing in the continent, with Nigeria ranked 11th on a global index by research firm Chainalysis, which also includes Kenya and Morocco in the top 20.

Despite the FTX blow, Mr. Aghedo said he was not giving up on crypto.

“Crypto has connected the global economy. I receive and pay people in crypto from many countries, and that would have been impossible before,” he said.

 

NO PROTECTION 

Cryptocurrencies were designed to be free of authorities such as governments and central banks. They allow for “peer-to-peer” transfers between users online without any intermediaries.

Their relative anonymity offers a haven for criminals, extremist groups and sanctioned governments — but champions say they also support citizens caught up in crises.

Now, crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years has left millions in the lurch, and it is unclear how many FTX users — estimated at about 1 million in the United States and many more across the world — will be able to recover their funds.

South Korea, Singapore and Japan accounted for the highest number of visitors to FTX.com until October, according to data compiled by crypto site Coingecko.

Singaporean Edward Choy was at work when he heard about a liquidity crunch at FTX. He immediately began getting his deposits out, just hours before withdrawals were suspended.

“I was able to pull out about 90% of my funds,” said Mr. Choy, 43, an actor and voice artist who has been a crypto investor since 2017.

“But I know many others were unable to get anything out — some had put nearly all their assets into FTX and have now lost everything,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Regulation of crypto currencies has come into sharp focus following the collapse of several platforms this year and increased volatility, with bitcoin down more than 70% from an all-time high of $69,000 in November last year.

Several investors have also blamed regulators for failing to regulate platforms and protect users.

On a Facebook group for crypto users in Singapore, Alfred Lee posted: “Shifted my six-figure portfolio from Binance to FTX. Didn’t manage to get out fast enough as I was on vacation,” he said, referring to his move after Binance was banned in Singapore last year for breaching local payment services rules.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said it could not protect local users from the FTX collapse, as it had not given FTX a license, and that the exchange had operated offshore.

“The most important lesson from the FTX debacle is that dealing in any cryptocurrency, on any platform, is hazardous,” MAS said in a statement last week.

“As MAS has repeatedly stated, there is no protection for customers who deal in cryptocurrencies. They can lose all their money.”

In Ghana, where authorities have not commented on the FTX collapse, 21-year-old content creator Elisha Owusu Akyaw, who often posts about crypto on Twitter and TikTok, said he had $200 on FTX when it collapsed.

“It’s now worth just $6,” he said, adding that he had earlier held the equivalent of about $70,000 on the platform, but had withdrawn most of it some months ago as the value of cryptocurrencies fell.

Mr. Akyaw, who has collaborated with FTX and other exchanges to boost their products to his more than 12,000 followers on Twitter, said he was worried about how the ongoing chaos would impact his role as a crypto influencer.

“The money lost, for me, isn’t the biggest focus,” said Mr. Akyaw, who began trading in crypto in his teens.

“It’s the impact it has had on the reputation of the crypto industry … it’s about trust in a space I’ve dedicated most of my life to.” — Thomson Reuters Foundation

 

BSP to hike interest rates by 25 or 50 bps in Dec.

BW FILE PHOTO

MANILA — The Philippine central bank will hike interest rates this month, though the monetary board is likely to be split over whether to raise the policy rate by 25 or 50 basis points, its governor said on Friday in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Felipe M. Medalla expressed relief that the US Federal Reserve was likely to scale back its interest rate hikes. On Tuesday, he said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could pause policy tightening by the first quarter next year barring “no major shocks.”

“Certainly we will not do zero and I cannot speak for the rest of the board. But I think the board members will probably be split between whether doing 25 or 50,” he said.

Mr. Medalla heads the seven-member monetary board, which will review the BSP’s interest rate settings on Dec. 15 in its last policy meeting of the year.

The BSP has increased its benchmark interest rates by a cumulative 300 basis points since May to battle inflation.

When asked if he thinks the BSP’s key rates will peak in the first half of 2023, Mr. Medalla replied: “Yes.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said it was time to slow the pace of coming rate hikes, ahead of the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 13–14 meeting, at which a half-point increase is widely expected. — REUTERS

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