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English COVID study finds record prevalence in January

LONDON – An English COVID-19 study reported record prevalence in January after an Omicron-fuelled spike in infections, Imperial College London said on Wednesday, adding that infections had dropped back from their peak but were now plateauing.

England will on Thursday ditch mask mandates and COVID-19 vaccine passes introduced to slow the spread of Omicron. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has credited the success of Britain’s booster rollout and the lower severity of the variant as he aims to live with COVID-19.

Britain has so far recorded more than 150,000 deaths from COVID-19, and daily infections peaked during the Omicron wave.

Imperial found that prevalence of infections between Jan 5 and Jan 20 was 4.41%, more than three times higher than it was in December.

Although prevalence decreased over the course of the month, the overall trend was unclear by the end of the study period, with cases rising in children and falling in adults.

“There is good news in our data in that infections had been rapidly dropping during January, but they are still extremely high and may have recently stalled at a very high prevalence,” said Paul Elliott, director of the Imperial REACT programme.

Omicron had also almost entirely displaced Delta, with only 1% of sequenced swabs belong to the formerly dominant variant.

It found prevalence among over-75s of 2.43%, a lower proportion than in the population overall but still “a high level of infection among a highly vulnerable group,” the researchers said.

Nearly 65% of people asked reported that they had a confirmed previous infection. However, Elliott said that while some of these could be reinfections, they could also be the same, recent infections being picked up a second time by the survey. – Reuters

U.S., Qatar to discuss energy security during emir’s Washington visit

WASHINGTON/DOHA, Jan. 25 (Reuters) – Qatar‘s ruling emir will hold talks with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House on Jan. 31 on a range of issues that will include global energy security, the White House said on Tuesday, amid concerns about gas supplies to Europe.

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani’s visit, the first since Biden took office last year, comes as Washington discusses with energy-producing states and firms a potential diversion of supplies to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the matter with the foreign minister of Qatar, a top liquefied natural gas producer, in a phone call on Monday, according to a source familiar with the matter who requested anonymity.

Tamim’s meeting with Biden at the White House will provide the leaders with an opportunity to discuss “ensuring the stability of global energy supplies,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement.

Other issues will include “promoting security and prosperity in the Gulf and the broader Middle East region” and “supporting the people of Afghanistan,” she said.

Washington is concerned that Russia, which has massed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, could invade its neighbor, triggering U.S. and European sanctions that would prompt the Kremlin to halt deliveries of Russian gas to Europe.

Global gas supplies are already tight and Qatar Energy‘s shipments are locked into long-term supply contracts which the company cannot easily break.

Tamim’s visit aims to build on relations with Washington that have strengthened since Doha hosted talks that led to the 2020 deal for the U.S. troop pullout from Afghanistan.

The small Gulf emirate played a pivotal role in evacuation operations during the chaotic final U.S. withdrawal in August and has become the U.S. diplomatic representative in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

Tamim and Biden are expected to discuss efforts by global powers to salvage the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran, with which Doha has ties, and efforts to end Yemen’s civil war, two knowlegable sources said.

 

AIR FREIGHTER INTEREST

The emir’s visit also comes amid a spiraling row between Qatar Airways and Europe’s Airbus, a rival of U.S. planemaker Boeing.

Airbus revoked a Qatar Airways order for jetliners after the Qatari airline sued the planemaker for more than $600 million over paint and surface flaws the airline says forced it to ground 21 A350 jets.

Qatar Airways has excluded Airbus from talks to buy new cargo planes and has said it is considering an attractive offer from Boeing to launch a proposed freighter version of its 777X.

A deal to renew Qatar‘s fleet of some 34 freighters with the new 777X model could come as early as next week when Tamim visits Washington, two people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, while cautioning talks had not yet been finalized.

Qatar Airways Chief Executive Akbar Al Baker has publicly indicated he is willing to look at buying as many as 50 freighters, with the larger number expected to include options.

Both companies declined comment. – Reuters

[ANALYSIS] A metaverse with Chinese characteristics is a clean and compliant metaverse

BEIJING – How will China’s metaverse evolve? Look to the letter “c”. Clean, censored, compliant and crypto-less is the view from experts.

The descriptions point to the long shadow thrown by Chinese authorities who have already intimated they will have a heavy regulatory hand in how it will develop – a shadow some China metaverse advocates fear will stunt its growth.

From Microsoft’s $69 billion plan to buy Activision to Facebook changing its name to Meta Platforms Inc , much of the tech world is leaping to build what many expect will be the next generation of the internet: immersive virtual worlds that replicate many aspects of real life.

Experts say China’s metaverse efforts lag countries such as the United States and South Korea, citing less investment by domestic tech giants. Industry-leading products like Meta’s Oculus virtual reality (VR) headsets are banned in China and the slow development of attractive domestically made VR headsets has meant China has yet to see a VR platform or metaverse gain significant popularity.

But interest has begun to surge. In the past year, more than 1,000 companies including heavyweights such as Alibaba Group Holding and Tencent Holdings Ltd have applied for around 10,000 metaverse-related trademarks, according to business tracking firm Tianyancha.

Baidu broke new ground in December with the launch of “XiRang”, described as China’s first metaverse platform though it has been widely panned for not offering a high-level immersive experience. Baidu says its app is a work in progress.

Start-ups too are seeing more investment. In the three months to end-November, more than 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) was invested in metaverse-related ventures, far more than the 2.1 billion yuan of investment that China’s VR and related industries attracted for all of 2020, according to Sino Global, a crypto venture capital firm focused on China.

“Investors and venture capital managers who hadn’t talked to me in years were suddenly messaging – asking if I want to go for a meal and talk. They all want to talk metaverse,” said Beijing-based Pan Bohang whose startup plans to launch a VR social gaming platform.

 

A REGULATED REALM

Experts say the infancy of China’s metaverse allows Beijing plenty of room to co-opt its development, particularly since the current metaverse buzz has coincided with an unprecedented regulatory crackdown on tech and other industries.

“Traditional Chinese internet businesses developed first and were then regulated. Industries like the metaverse will be regulated as they are built,” said Du Zhengping, head of the state-backed China Mobile Communications Association’s metaverse industry committee which was formed in October.

But China’s authoritarian approach is at odds with how the metaverse is developing in other parts of the world where users are attracted to new ways of expressing themselves, and it will stifle growth, says Eloi Gerard, a VR entrepreneur who worked in China for 10 years before recently moving to Los Angeles.

“The metaverse is already a place where you have religious groups, LGBT movements, gathering all around the world and using the virtual world to share ideas, this is what people are doing on VRChat right now…it is crazy progressive and liberal,” he said, referring to a popular San Francisco-based VR platform.

“The idea of the metaverse is that one moves between virtual worlds…this goes immediately against the idea of one party, one voice, one vision.”

Experts also note that gaming – considered the gateway technology to the metaverse – is tightly regulated in China.

Games must be approved by the government and while battle games are allowed, strong violent content such as the depiction of blood and dead bodies is banned, as is anything that can be construed as obscene. As part of their recent regulatory crackdown, authorities have also sought to rein in gaming by minors as well as excessive adulation of celebrities and money.

Gaming giants such as Tencent and NetEase Inc have been quick to state publicly that they will comply with any rules while developing metaverse offerings.

 

THE GOVERNMENT’S REACH

The long arm of the government looks set to be duly felt in other ways too. An influential app, Xuexi Qiangguo, which is required reading for many Communist Party cadres, published an article in November that said the metaverse should be used to improve the quality of mandatory ideological education classes for school children.

At a January meeting of Beijing’s municipal political advisory body which discussed the metaverse‘s development, proposals included a registration system for metaverse communities aimed at preventing them from influencing wider public opinion and causing economic or financial shocks, according to a state media report.

And while crypto currencies have become a defining feature of many Western metaverse worlds – they are notably absent in China’s metaverse as they have been banned by Beijing. Instead, the manifold forms of Chinese digital payment already in use, like the central government’s digital yuan, will likely take their place.

Despite the many probable restrictions, some entrepreneurs say China’s metaverse will flourish simply because of Chinese consumers’ willingness to try new forms of online entertainment.

Nikk Mitchell, whose company is in talks about metaverse projects based on Chinese stories that will play up elements such as Chinese calligraphy and traditional costumes, is one such believer, noting progress in domestic VR glasses and content.

When Chinese consumers are ready to give this metaverse-related tech another shot, “then there will be mass adoption at a level that I don’t think will happen in the West nearly as quick,” he said. – Reuters

Japan’s border crackdown leaves students in limbo and economy in a pinch

PEOPLE wear face masks at Shinagawa station during the rush hour in Tokyo, Japan, April 20, 2020. — REUTERS

TOKYO – Two years after Japan locked down its borders to block the coronavirus, some 150,000 foreign students still aren’t able to enter the country, left in limbo by a policy that has disrupted lives and caused headaches for universities and businesses.

The absence of the foreign students and researchers is being felt from big laboratories to small, private universities, highlighting the importance of overseas talent – and their tuition fees – as Japan grapples with a shrinking population.

While the policy to stop the virus has proved popular for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, some business leaders have warned about the economic impact, particularly as the labour market is tight.

What is less clear is the longer-term hit on Japan’s “soft power” – in particular its academic reputation around the world.

At research institute Riken, geneticist Piero Carninci says he sees the impact first-hand. Japan has a shortage of bioinformatic researchers critical for genomic studies but he has not been able to fill the gap with foreign talent over the past two years.

“My lab, for sure, is slowing down and our centre for this type of analysis. We are struggling,” Carninci, a deputy director at Riken, whose prize-winning research in genetics has been cited in 60,000 papers.

“Internationalisation in science is definitely critical, because you don’t have all the expertise in the same country.”

Many countries sealed borders to keep the coronavirus at bay.

The United States saw international student enrolment https://www.reuters.com/world/us/classes-starting-international-students-failing-get-us-visas-2021-08-23 drop 43% in the fall of 2020 from the previous year, while some 80,000 immigrant worker visas expired unused last year.

But Japan stands out with the strictest borders among Group of Seven countries, effectively banning all new non-residents since March 2020. Only China, with its zero COVID-19 target, has been more closed off among major economies.

The stakes are high. A government-affiliated study showed Japan last year fell to 10th place globally in publication of noteworthy scientific papers, just behind India. Twenty years ago, it was number four.

 

‘OWN-GOAL’

Nearly half of Japan’s four-year private universities failed to fill all places for first-year students in 2021, up 15 percentage points from the previous year, according to an official at the Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools of Japan, which represents private educators.

While the biggest reason was a drop-off in the number of Japanese students, the decline in foreign students was also felt, the official said.

More than 100 academics and international relations experts signed a letter asking Kishida to reopen borders last week. People shut out have protested outside Japanese embassies and an online petition calling for students and workers to be let in has more than 33,000 signatures.

The government said last week it would make an exception and allow 87 state-sponsored students in.

“It’s a giant own-goal for Japan after decades of masterful use of soft power,” said Wesley Cheek, a sociologist who recently left Japan for a research post in Britain.

“People like me, who’d usually be applying for grants to continue our research in Japan, just have to take a pass for the foreseeable future.”

International students can work part-time in Japan and have traditionally provided a pool of what Japanese refer to as “odd-job” workers in places like convenience stores, in a country long wary of letting foreign workers in.

Even before the coronavirus, there were not enough foreign students to meet labour demand, said Yohei Shibasaki, an international hiring adviser to service and tech companies

He estimated there were about 170,000 students from trade and language schools in Japan before the pandemic, most of whom worked part time.

Hiroshi Mikitani, chief executive of e-commerce group Rakuten, which hires foreign engineers, has said the curbs should be reconsidered as they were not practically effective and were “only a minus for the economy“.

The plight of international students, some dreaming for years of study, can be heart-wrenching.

On social media and in interviews, they described paying tuition for classes they took online in the middle of the night, losing scholarships, and months of stress waiting for change.

Some have exhausted savings. Some have given up and gone elsewhere.

Japan is no longer the main destination for study and research in East Asia, with more students now going to South Korea, said Davide Rossi, who runs an agency promoting study abroad.

Sujin Song, 20, a science major from South Korea, has lost her scholarship but tries to do lab work for her classes online. She was blocked again from entering Japan in November.

“I really liked Japan but now I feel betrayed,” Song said. – Reuters

KMC Solutions establishes communications hub, donates filtration straws to provinces hit by Typhoon Odette

Several provinces in the Visayas region are still in the process of recovering a month after Typhoon Odette (international name: Rai) originally hit landfall in the Philippines. As numerous communities continue to rebuild after the devastation and wreckage it has caused, many provinces are still left reeling without basic necessities such as electricity and running water. KMC Solutions, the country’s largest flexible workspace and staff leasing provider, extends their resources to help support these communities affected through their own CSR initiatives. The company is now in the process of distributing portable filtration straws to give people access to clean drinkable water and establish a communications hub in Siargao Island next.

Filtration straws are usually more commonly used for backpacking, hiking, camping, scouting, travel, and emergency preparedness — which have now been utilized by KMC to supply clean drinking water to provinces with minimal access to it. This has led them to develop the KMC Life Straw, a portable and lightweight water straw with an effective filtration system that removes up to 99.9% of bacteria such as salmonella, cholera, E. Coli, and protozoa. Since then, the flexible workspace company has mobilized and distributed over 500 pieces of KMC Life Straws to a number of provinces — donating over 100 straws to Negros Oriental, 200 straws to Siargao, and 200 straws to other affected areas.

KMC also has close ties to the Siargao community, recently partnering with Bravo Beach Resort last July 2021 to roll out their “work from the beach” offering. The popular and beloved tourist destination is now nearly unrecognizable after the heavy damage it suffered last month that left hundreds of tourists stranded for days and even more locals losing their livelihoods. Presently, KMC is in the process of building solar and generator-powered container vans that can act as a communications hub while the island slowly recovers, to be stationed at their partnered resort, Bravo. With the surfing paradise still having little to no electricity, the KMC communications hub would offer free Wi-Fi connectivity and charging stations that would be available for public use.

With the uncertainty of when power will come back onto the island, KMC hopes to keep communication lines open with this initiative to provide Siargao the means to communicate outside the province, therefore keeping the public aware of their current situation.

As many communities are still in need of support, KMC Solutions strives to lend a helping hand during this recovery period through providing them with access to essentials such as open communication lines and clean, drinkable water. The company is additionally looking into providing other internet efforts and collaborating with more partners to reach other areas — as this can help not only with public awareness but also allow residents to communicate with family and give children the means to continue their schooling and education as well.

KMC Solutions has over a decade of experience in delivering forward-thinking office spaces and high-performing teams to 400+ global brands and local businesses across multiple industries in the Philippines. With 55+ flexible workspaces in over 23 locations around Metro Manila, Cebu, Clark and Iloilo, their expansive geographical footprint enables their clients to work in the most efficient, effective, and safest way possible. As the country’s largest flexible workspace and staff leasing provider, they are uniquely positioned to provide clients with the “who” and “where” they need to establish or grow their business in the Philippines.

 

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Live smart in a future-ready home at The Sapphire Bloc South Tower

The Sapphire Bloc South Tower 3D view

The new year opens a lot of possibilities to welcome another important milestone in your life. One of which could be finally acquiring your own smart home at the heart of the city.

Young professionals who aim to find a stable lifestyle in the Metro, one that could keep up with their fast-paced ways, are a match to RLC Residences’ The Sapphire Bloc South Tower. Located in the bustling Ortigas Central Business District, this development boasts of residential units with Smart Home features equipped with advanced technologies that can help you make room for bigger responsibilities and spend more time indulging in the things you love.

Embrace Exclusivity

Each unit greets residents with exclusive deliverables that promote efficiency and safety. Feel secure whether you’re inside or outside the condo with Smart Lock — a device that gives you full control over who can access your home via an encrypted physical keycard that uses anti-clone technology, or a fingerprint, by setting up a numeric passcode, and through an exclusive app.

To add another layer of security to your home, your door no longer requires a key or even a doorknob for you to enter as you can simply generate an access code to type in, therefore preventing unwanted access inside.

What’s more, is the built-in Audio-Video Intercom which connects to the building lobby that allows you to identify guests through a screen panel or using a mobile app. This way, you can screen expected or unexpected visitors.

Be Cost-Efficient

Additionally, smart power outlets are installed inside units to give you seamless command across devices and appliances.

Paving the way for a more energy-efficient way of living and saving you the worry of electricity-related accidents, you can check these anytime on your phone via the said exclusive app. Speaking of control, The Sapphire Bloc South Tower also puts your mind at ease when it comes to unnecessary expenses. Heading out and unsure if you turned off the lights? Fret not because Smart Light Switches can be accessed wherever you are with just a few clicks on your mobile device.

Likewise, get rid of needless hassle through the Mesh Gateway Router, where you can manage smart devices like air-conditioner, television, among others via the app.

Stay Connected

There is still more to a smart home in The Sapphire Bloc South Tower.

Two years into the pandemic has solidified the need for a stable internet within every household. On top of the Smart Home features mentioned above, all studio, one-bedroom, executive one-bedroom, and two-bedroom units in this tower are made fiber-optic ready to ensure fast and reliable Wi-Fi connectivity, an essential for those working remotely and are homeschooling.

Change your daily life for the better by investing in a future-ready home. Make the smart choice and connect with an RLC Residences Property Specialist today or visit rlcresidences.com for more information about The Sapphire Bloc South Tower and other top-notch developments.

 

Spotlight is BusinessWorld’s sponsored section that allows advertisers to amplify their brand and connect with BusinessWorld’s audience by enabling them to publish their stories directly on the BusinessWorld Web site. For more information, send an email to online@bworldonline.com.

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NTC says it granted ABS-CBN frequencies to Villar-linked media company

The National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) said it has granted the frequencies previously assigned to ABS-CBN Corp. to the Villar-linked Advanced Media Broadcasting System (AMBS).

The NTC issued an order on Jan. 5 granting AMBS a provisional authority to install, operate and maintain a digital television (TV) broadcasting system in Mega Manila using Channel 16, which used to be ABS-CBN’s digital channel.

At the same time, the regulator “temporarily” assigned Channel 2, previously the analog channel of ABS-CBN, to AMBS for “simulcast purposes,” the commission said in a statement released to reporters late Tuesday.

“The temporary assignment was granted to ensure service to both analog and digital TV signal users as the country transitions to full digital TV,” it added.

The analog shut-off is scheduled to take place in 2023.

On why AMBS was granted the provisional authority, the NTC said in its order that the company “was the first applicant for an authority to install, operate and maintain a digital TV in Metro Manila as filed on Oct. 5, 2006.”

This means that the company has been waiting for 16 ​years for an available TV frequency.

ABS-CBN lost its broadcast franchise in 2020 after the House Committee on Legislative Franchises denied its application.

The NTC said it has a mandate to “assign vacated and available frequencies to qualified entities.”

It also said that the Department of Information and Communications Technology, the Department of Justice, and the Office of the President did not object to the decision when sought for guidance and opinion.

AMBS’ legislative franchise, Republic Act No. 11253, was extended for another 25 years in 2019.

The House Committee on Legislative Franchises approved on Sept. 14, 2021 the sale, transfer or assignment of the controlling interest in AMBS to Planet Cable, Inc.

The Villar-led Prime Asset Ventures, Inc.’s telecommunications subsidiary Streamtech Systems Technologies, Inc. offers internet service to homes and businesses through Planet Cable.  — Arjay L. Balinbin

 

Johnson & Johnson Baby First Bath Program, in partnership with MCNAP and IMAP, educates frontliners on newborn skin care

Parents and caregivers understand that safe and gentle products offer the best care for delicate newborn skin. With a market full of product options for babies accompanied by aggressive marketing, parents and caregivers look for assurance that they are making the right product choices in caring for their little ones.

Understanding this, Johnson & Johnson (Philippines), Inc. (J&J) partnered with the Mother and Child Nurses Association of the Philippines (MCNAP) and the Integrated Midwives Association of the Philippines (IMAP) to educate frontliners on caring for baby’s delicate skin as part of its Baby First Bath Program.

Through a series of talks developed for MCNAP and IMAP members, J&J educated participants on the science behind Johnson’s Baby CottonTouch products and how they are specially formulated for baby’s First Bath in hospitals and lying-in clinics, and for continued use at home.

Johnson’s Baby CottonTouch is proven to be 100% gentle on newborn skin even as it protects against irritation, dryness, redness, germs, and pollution. Its smooth and velvety lather also encourages more playful touch, interaction, and eye contact so that less time is spent on functional tasks like washing, making the bath time experience better for babies and parents or caregivers alike.

“In home-use tests, Johnson’s CottonTouch wash and lotion were reported to make bath time more interactive and beneficial for both the babies and their parents or caregivers,” said J&J’s head of HCP Marketing & Media, Elaine Pallasigui. “Imparting this knowledge to MCNAP and IMAP is important as frontliners in child care are key to the success of our Baby First Bath Program. Working with MCNAP allows us to reach moms with newborn babies in the hospitals while IMAP connects us to the moms and babies in lying-in facilities.”

“We are grateful to have partnered with J&J for this program as it is aligned with our goal to help more mothers take better care of their babies and ensure that all newborns will have immediate access to safe and effective products,” said the national president of MCNAP, Aileen Ongleo.

Following the implementation of the Baby First Bath Program, Johnson’s Baby CottonTouch is now used by nurses and midwives as baby’s First Bath in over 390 hospitals and lying-in clinics across the country. Johnson’s Baby CottonTouch products are given to the newborns’ parents upon discharge so that they can use it at home as well.

In 2021, J&J’s Baby First Bath Program reached over 308,000 births or 29% of the estimated 1.05 million births in the Philippines in that year. The program intends to reach 240,000 births in 2022.

Johnson & Johnson has long been giving babies, parents, and healthcare professionals safe and innovative products for newborns that live up to its pure, mild, and gentle promise. For over a hundred years, the company has been dedicated to understanding babies and the special nurturing they need.

 

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‘Historic low’: PHL slumps in anti-corruption index

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

By Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES slumped to a historic low in a global corruption index released by Transparency International, which noted the “sharp” decline in freedom of expression under the Duterte administration that made it difficult for citizens to speak up against corrupt activities.

Based on the 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), the Philippines dropped two spots to 117th place out of 180 countries and territories.

Transparency International said in a statement the Philippines scored a “historic low” of 33 out of 100 in a scale that measures perceived levels of public sector corruption.

PHL corruption perception deteriorates in 2021

Last year, the country had a score of 34. The scale indicates 100 as “very clean” and zero as “highly corrupt.”

“With a score of 33, the Philippines is a significant decliner, having lost 5 points since 2014. Since the election of Rodrigo R. Duterte (in 2016), the Philippines has also seen a sharp decline in freedom of association and freedom of expression, making it harder to speak up about corruption,” Transparency International said.

Topping the CPI were Denmark, Finland and New Zealand, which all had a score of 88.

The Philippines’ score is below the global average of 43 and Asia-Pacific region’s average of 45. Its highest-ever score on the CPI was 38, which was recorded in 2014.

The Philippines lagged behind some of its Southeast Asian neighbors in the CPI, namely Singapore (4th), Malaysia (62nd), Timor-Leste (82nd), Vietnam (87th), Indonesia (96th), and Thailand (110th).

In Asia-Pacific, Transparency International noted that corruption levels appear to be at a standstill, with 77% of countries seeing a decline or made little progress in the last decade.

“People across Asia-Pacific have led mass movements calling for action against corruption, but little has changed in the last 10 years. Instead, populist and autocratic leaders co-opt anti-corruption messaging to stay in power and restrict civil liberties to stop people from taking to the streets,” Ilham Mohamed, Asia regional advisor of Transparency International, said in a statement.

“With weakening anti-corruption institutions, or in some cases none at all, the region is failing to uphold human rights and address corruption.”

‘HUGE PROBLEM’
Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said the Duterte administration has never curtailed freedom of expression, contrary to Transparency International’s claim.

“We know that’s not true. (There are) thousands of critics around and in media, and (the) administration never stopped them. (The) administration has purged a lot of those linked with corruption. President Duterte has no tolerance for corruption,” Mr. Lopez said via mobile phone message.

However, Makati Business Club Executive Director Francisco “Coco” Alcuaz, Jr. said in a mobile phone message that the rise in perceived corruption may cause businessmen and potential investors to think twice about the Philippines.

“When freedom of expression and media freedom are curtailed and with the rise of disinformation, more and more Filipinos will be unaware of the corruption around them and unable to restore the integrity needed for a competitive, job-creating economy,” Mr. Alcuaz said.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, associate director at the Ateneo de Manila University Center for Economic Research and Development, said in a mobile phone interview that the country’s low CPI ranking is a cause of concern.

“We really have to shape up. (We can do) anything that would foster more transparency such as the Freedom of Information bill, and automation for revenue collection agencies such as the Bureau of Customs and the Bureau of Internal Revenue,” he said. 

Calixto V. Chikiamco, Foundation for Economic Freedom president, said the country’s lower CPI ranking will not discourage the majority of foreign investors who evaluate investments based on fundamentals.

“The fundamentals are that the administration will make the country more hospitable to foreign investments with three liberalization measures: the Public Service Act amendment, and amendments to the Retail Trade Liberalization and Foreign Investment Act,” Mr. Chikiamco said in a mobile phone message.

“Moreover, the country’s fiscal and external reserves position, although stressed by the pandemic, remain healthy. Therefore, economic recovery remains on track if the COVID-19 situation improves, irrespective of this negative report,” he added.

In an e-mail interview, Ateneo Policy Center Senior Research Fellow Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco said Filipinos should be more assertive in making public officials accountable for their actions by using social media. He also urged the media to be “more relentless” in monitoring government expenditures. 

“Corruption is a huge problem. And it is going to take a lot of work, over many years, to defeat this scourge,” Mr. Yusingco said.

AMRO sees PHL growing slower than expected

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

THE PHILIPPINES will likely grow by 6.2% this year, slower than previously expected as the service-driven economy remains vulnerable to lockdowns, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

In its latest regional economic outlook released on Tuesday, AMRO said the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) will expand at a slower pace than the 6.7% projection set in October last year. This is also lower than the government’s 7-9% target for 2022.

The research office said the Philippine economy likely grew by 4.9% in 2021, higher than its previous 4.3% forecast but just below the government’s 5-5.5% target.

“The weakness is the services sector. Philippines is a very services-oriented economy so if they are able to open up the economy more fully, the services sector will recover much more robustly,” AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor said at a virtual briefing.

“But at the same time, because of the high dependence on the services sector, if they have to close down for any reason because of a new outbreak — the more infectious and more severe mutation of the virus — then I think the Philippines will be affected more.”

The country will need to ramp up its vaccination program further to keep the economy open for longer and support the services sector, he said.

The government reverted to stricter mobility restrictions as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases surged due to the more infectious Omicron variant. New infections reached 17,677 on Tuesday for a total active case count of 247,451.

The government plans to fully vaccinate 77 million Filipinos by the end of the first quarter.

As for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), AMRO expects the region’s GDP to expand by 5.2% in 2022, slower than the 5.8% projection previously.

Mr. Khor said the impact of the Omicron variant on ASEAN economies will be less pronounced than the effect of the Delta variant last year as vaccination has become more widespread.

“There’s much more protection of the population and we feel that the economies will maintain the economy much more open this year. As a result, the impact on the economy will be less,” he said.

“Of course, the impact will vary from country to country. For countries which are much more dependent on contact-intensive services industries — like Thailand for instance on tourism — we’ve shaved down the growth much more.”

Among ASEAN economies, Vietnam is expected to grow the fastest this year at 7.5%, followed by the Philippines, then Cambodia and Indonesia at 5.2%.

AMRO estimates the Philippine consumer price index to hit 3.3% this year, just slightly higher than the 3.2% seen previously.

This is just below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projection of 3.4% for 2022.

Mr. Khor said he thinks the BSP should maintain its key policy rates until economic recovery is stronger.

“The inflation (last year) was caused mostly by supply-side disruption,” he said.

Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP data will be released on Jan. 27.

GDP growth likely eased to 6.5% in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate from a BusinessWorld poll of 18 economists. The economy is expected to expand by 5.3% in 2021. — Jenina P. Ibanez

Central bank to keep close eye on risks to inflation

INFLATION may remain elevated this year due to higher commodity prices and the continued pork shortage, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said.

The risk to the inflation outlook is slightly on the upside for 2022, he said.

“These risks are mostly associated with a prolonged shortage in domestic pork supply, along with higher global commodity prices due to improving global demand amid lingering supply-chain bottlenecks,” Mr. Diokno said in an open letter to President Rodrigo R. Duterte dated Jan. 18.

“We would like to assure the President and the Filipino people that the BSP is closely monitoring developments and challenges brought about by the pandemic to ensure that the monetary policy stance remains consistent with its price and financial stability objectives,” he added.

A Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) resolution requires the BSP to issue an open letter to the President to explain why actual inflation deviated from the target in a given year.

Headline inflation averaged 4.5% in 2021, beyond the 2-4% target set by the BSP. Inflation was only within target for two months in 2021 — in December and in July, when it was at 4%.

Mr. Diokno said beyond target inflation in 2021 was mainly due to low supply of staple food items and the spike in oil prices.

For this year and 2023, the BSP expects inflation to settle within target at 3.4% and 3.2% respectively.

“The BSP’s inflation forecasts indicate a reversion towards the target range in 2022 and 2023, suggesting a manageable inflation outlook. Inflation expectations have also remained firmly anchored to the target band, based on the BSP’s surveys of private sector economists and analysts,” he said.

“The BSP tends to look through the initial impact of supply shocks because monetary policy has a limited impact on cost-push forces,” he added.

Other factors that could slow inflation include the new variants of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as it may require tighter restrictions and cloud economic growth prospects.

“The inflation outlook is subject to considerable level of uncertainty given developments relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, which could affect domestic and external economic conditions going forward,” Mr. Diokno said.

The central bank will have its first policy review this year on Feb. 17. In its Dec. 17 meeting, the Monetary Board maintained rates at record lows to support the economy amid the threat from the Omicron variant.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will report the January inflation on Feb. 4. For the first time, 2018 will be used as the base year for the CPI from 2012 previously. — L.W.T.Noble

IMF slashes global growth forecast due to Omicron

REUTERS

THE INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2022, noting that new variants of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may prolong the pandemic.

“The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected,” the multilateral lender said in its World Economic Outlook Update released on Tuesday, citing the impact of the Omicron variant that has rapidly spread around the world.

The IMF now expects the world economy to grow by 4.4% this year, lower than the 4.9% estimate it gave in October. It estimated the global economy expanded by 5.9% in 2021.

“The baseline incorporates anticipated effects of mobility restrictions, border closures, and health impacts from the spread of the Omicron variant. These vary by country depending on susceptibility of the population, the severity of mobility restrictions, the expected impact of infections on labor supply, and the importance of contact-intensive sectors. These impediments are expected to weigh on growth in the first quarter of 2022,” the IMF said.

It also cited supply chain disruptions, elevated inflation, China’s property woes, and weaker-than-expected recovery in private consumption as other factors weighing on the outlook.

The IMF said inflation will remain elevated in the near-term — on average, 3.9% in advanced economies and 5.9% in emerging markets and developing economies this year.

The global growth forecast also assumes that severe illness, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19 will drop to “low levels” in most countries by end-2022.

“But low current vaccination rates in many countries risk further new variants. The longer and more widely the COVID-19 virus circulates, the greater the likelihood of new mutations that evade vaccines, turn back the clock on the pandemic, and fuel social discontent if recurrent mobility restrictions are needed to slow transmission,” the IMF said.

Meanwhile, the IMF also downgraded the growth forecast for the ASEAN-5 (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) which include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam to 5.6% this year, from the 5.8% previously given. The region’s growth projection was kept at 6% for 2023.

The IMF did not release updated Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2022. In October, it lowered the Philippine growth outlook to 6.3%, from 7% previously. This is below the 7-9% target set by the government.

“As advanced economies lift policy rates, risks to financial stability and emerging market and developing economies’ capital flows, currencies, and fiscal positions — especially with debt levels having increased significantly in the past two years — may emerge,” the IMF said. 

Investors now expect the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates three times this year, starting as early as March, according to a Reuters poll last week.

For 2023, the IMF raised its global economic forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%, saying this is “mostly mechanical.”

“Eventually, the shocks dragging 2022 growth will dissipate and — as a result —global output in 2023 will grow a little faster. The upward revision to 2023 global growth is, however, not enough to make up ground lost due to the downgrade to 2022. Cumulative global growth over 2022 and 2023 is projected to be 0.3 percentage point lower than previously forecast,” it said. — L.W.T.Noble

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