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India, Indonesia risk biggest fallout from geopolitical shocks

A TRIUMVIRATE of high oil prices, a surging dollar and geopolitical instability are set to weigh on India and Indonesia among Asia’s emerging markets, while energy exporter Malaysia may prove a rare beneficiary.

Economists are fretting over the fallout on developing Asia from a widening of the Israel-Hamas war, with policymakers struggling to assess the consequences for oil supply and the scope of the potential impact on growth. The jump in both the dollar and long-term Treasury yields exacerbate the risks for economies running high current-account deficits.

Brent crude prices have jumped almost 20% in the past three months and Bloomberg Economics estimates they could soar to $150 a barrel, from about $90 now, if the Middle East conflict widens to include Iran. The Islamic Republic supplies arms and cash to Hamas, which the US and European Union designate as a terrorist group, and backs the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

The Israel-Hamas conflict comes on top of Russia’s protracted war on Ukraine and simmering superpower tensions between the US and China. The following charts show countries more exposed to a higher-for-longer dollar and oil price.

“If higher oil prices persist for a prolonged period, we see India, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia more vulnerable to terms of trade deterioration,” said Lavanya Venkateswaran, a senior economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd. “Moreover, as ‘twin deficit’ economies — current account and fiscal deficits — they may be more vulnerable to capital outflows.”

Alicia Garcia Herrero at French investment bank Natixis SA said high external debt positions mean Sri Lanka and Pakistan are most at risk. Indonesia and India are also vulnerable “since they tend to run current-account deficits and need external financing for that,” she said.

Compounding the problem, US Treasury yields have soared on concerns that higher oil prices will revive inflation pressures. That’s another headwind for nations running high budget deficits as they’ll likely struggle to raise funds in global markets, Ms. Garcia Herrero added.

Emerging Asian bonds have become less attractive for investors — the premiums a borrower pays to own Indian or Indonesian bonds against US debt, for example, have hit the lowest level since at least the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

Strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc say they prefer the Chinese renminbi and the Korean won among low-yielding Asian currencies. They highlight Beijing’s tight focus on fine-tuning fiscal policy and recent property market measures and the Bank of Korea’s consistent foreign exchange sales and the country’s potential inclusion in a global bond index next year.

“The other low-yielding currencies not only do not have these supportive factors, they also have certain individual shortcomings,” the HSBC strategists wrote, pointing to election uncertainty for the Taiwanese dollar, deteriorating fiscal metrics for the Thai Baht and overvaluation for the Singapore dollar.

“Among higher-yielding currencies, we have a slight preference for the Philippine peso and the Indian rupee over the Indonesia rupiah,” they said.

One country that stands to benefit from rising oil prices is Malaysia, in terms of both growth and the nation’s fiscal position, economists said.

“We see increased export duties, petroleum income taxes, and dividends from the state-owned Petronas to be adding to the fiscal revenue,” said Bum Ki Son, Singapore-based regional economist at Barclays Plc. “For Indonesia, we think the fiscal position is likely to deteriorate.”

Economists see some positives for India despite the higher dollar and elevated oil prices. Natixis’ Ms. Garcia Herrero pointed to strong macroeconomic data that makes the country’s assets attractive despite the headwinds.

“The fact that Indian data has been so strong — latest PMI was the best in Asia — does help India,” said Ms. Garcia Herrero. — Bloomberg

US bolstering firepower in the Middle East

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WASHINGTON/CAIRO — The United States is bolstering its firepower in the Middle East to prevent the spread of the conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas and deter Iran from getting involved as international fears of a wider regional war grow.

The newest US aircraft carrier — and the world’s largest — is already in the eastern Mediterranean and set to be joined by a second US aircraft carrier in the next 10 days.

While the White House says there are “no plans or intentions” for their use, it means US military assets would be in place to provide air support to protect US national security interests if needed. The US also has an array of bases in the Middle East with troops, fighter aircraft and warships.

“Every effort is being made to stop this from becoming a regional conflict. If that happens, it is going to draw US resources in a big way,” said a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “I don’t want to speculate on what assistance can be offered if there is a wider conflict, those decisions haven’t been made yet.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken — speaking in Cairo on Sunday after days of Middle East shuttle diplomacy — delivered a blunt message and a veiled warning to US foe Iran: “When it comes to Israel security, we have Israel’s back.”

He said the deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups was “not to provoke anyone, but just to send a very clear message of deterrence that no one should do anything that widens this conflict in any way, or that furthers aggression against Israel from any other direction.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian warned on Sunday that “the hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger,” while Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York said if Israel does not attack it, its interests or citizens, then Iran’s armed forces would not engage militarily.

Israel has vowed to annihilate Iran-backed Hamas – which controls the Gaza Strip – after its fighters stormed Israeli towns eight days ago, killing 1,300 people and seizing hostages in the worst attack on civilians in the country’s history.

HEZBOLLAH FEARS
International diplomacy has been focused on preventing a spill over of the conflict — particularly into Lebanon.

While Israel has been intensely bombing Gaza for the past week and preparing for a ground offensive, the country’s military has also clashed on the Lebanese border with the Iran-backed, heavily armed Hezbollah group in the deadliest confrontations since they fought a month-long war in 2006.

When asked if the United States could provide air support in northern Israel, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said: “No plans or intentions at this time.”

“That said, we take our national security interests seriously and we have ample military force in the region to protect and defend those interests as needed,” Kirby added.

Any decision to launch military action in the Middle East would come from US President Joseph R. Biden, a Democract, himself. Such a move already has some Republican support.

Senator Lindsey Graham, an influential Republican voice on national security affairs, told Reuters on Sunday he would propose that Congress authorize a US attack on Iran’s oil industry if “a second front is opened in the north” of Israel.

“If there’s an effort by Hezbolllah to unleash a massive attack on Israel, the Iranians should pay a heavy price for that,” he said. “Any escalation by Iran — triggering Hezbollah, killing the hostages — should put them in the crosshairs.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday the United States had seen no indications that Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants were amassing to potentially attack Israel, widening the conflict.

“We’ve not seen any massing of forces along the border,” Mr. Austin said. “This is something that the Israelis are focused on. We are also looking for additional things that could widen the conflict here and hopefully, we won’t see those things.”

Two US officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the naval ships in the region were truly meant as a show of force and to give Biden options in the future if needed, rather than some certain plan for the US to get involved. — Reuters

Airline CEO-turned-politician Luxon to lead New Zealand to the right

Christopher Luxon, Leader of the National Party waves to supporters at his election party after winning the general election to become New Zealand’s next prime minister in Auckland, New Zealand, Oct. 14, 2023. — REUTERS

WELLINGTON — Just three years after entering politics, former businessman Christopher Luxon is set to lead New Zealand to the right as prime minister-elect, ending six years of Labor-led center-left government.

The former Air New Zealand chief executive officer (CEO), Mr. Luxon became leader of the center-right National Party at the end of 2021, boosting its popularity until winning Saturday’s general election.

National won 50 seats and its preferred coalition partner, ACT New Zealand, won 11, securing a majority of one seat in the 121-seat parliament, according to provisional results from the Electoral Commission. Final results are due Nov. 3.

Mr. Luxon, who held senior roles at global consumer goods firm Unilever and delivered consistent profits running Air New Zealand from 2012 to 2019, has said he would use the skills he bought to managing businesses to improve New Zealand.

The 53-year-old has promised to curb historically high inflation and reduce government debt by cutting spending and narrowing the central bank’s mandate to targeting inflation, in order to help financially stretched middle-income families.

“I want to bring the country together, I want to actually make sure that we are focussed on delivering outcomes for New Zealanders,” Mr. Luxon told a press conference, dressed in an All Blacks jersey after watching the national rugby team win a dramatic World Cup quarterfinal.

“I’m a person who likes to bring teams together and make sure that I get the best out of that team and use all the skills in that team, so that’s my mode.”

In a country where almost half the people say they have no religion, Mr. Luxon has faced scrutiny for saying he was Christian and has had to defend stances such as personally opposing abortion. He has committed to maintaining legal abortion and supported same-sex marriage.

“Faith is deeply personal, but I am not there to act in the interests of one faith, one group, one person or one belief system. I’m there to represent all New Zealanders,” Mr. Luxon told Reuters earlier this year.

A millionaire father of two with several homes across the country, Luxon is learning the Maori language and is a Taylor Swift fan, quoting her in televised debates and interviews.

Although well-travelled, he is largely untried on foreign policy. Luxon has strongly supported Ukraine in its invasion by Russia, in line with New Zealand’s traditional allies. He has said there will be little change in New Zealand’s foreign policy. — Reuters

Australia fines Musk’s X platform $386,000 over anti-child abuse gaps

‘X’ logo is seen on the top of the headquarters of the messaging platform X, formerly known as Twitter, in downtown San Francisco, California, US, July 30, 2023. — REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA

SYDNEY — An Australian regulator has fined Elon Musk’s social media platform X A$610,500 ($386,000) for failing to cooperate with a probe into anti-child abuse practices, a blow to a company that has struggled to keep advertisers amid complaints it is going soft on moderating content.

The e-Safety Commission fined X, the platform Mr. Musk rebranded from Twitter, saying it failed to respond to questions including how long it took to respond to reports of child abuse material on the platform and the methods it used to detect it.

Though small compared to the $44 billion Mr. Musk paid for the website in October 2022, the fine is a reputational hit for a company that has seen a continuous revenue decline as advertisers cut spending on a platform that has stopped most content moderation and reinstated thousands of banned accounts.

Most recently the EU said it was investigating X for potential violation of its new tech rules after the platform was accused of failing to rein in disinformation in relation to Hamas’ attack on Israel.

“If you’ve got answers to questions, if you’re actually putting people, processes and technology in place to tackle illegal content at scale, and globally, and if it’s your stated priority, it’s pretty easy to say,” Commissioner Julie Inman Grant said in an interview.

“The only reason I can see to fail to answer important questions about illegal content and conduct happening on platforms would be if you don’t have answers,” added Inman Grant, who was a public policy director for X until 2016.

X closed its Australian office after Mr. Musk’s buyout, so there was no local representative to respond to Reuters. A request for comment sent to the San Francisco-based company’s media email address was not immediately answered.

Under Australian laws that took effect in 2021, the regulator can compel internet companies to give information about their online safety practices or face a fine. If X refuses to pay the fine, the regulator can pursue the company in court, Inman Grant said.

After taking the company private, Mr. Musk said in a post that “removing child exploitation is priority #1”. But the Australian regulator said that when it asked X how it prevented child grooming on the platform, X responded that it was “not a service used by large numbers of young people.”

X told the regulator that available anti-grooming technology was “not of sufficient capability or accuracy to be deployed on Twitter.”

Inman Grant said the commission also issued a warning to Alphabet’s Google for noncompliance with its request for information about handling of child abuse content, calling the search engine giant’s responses to some questions “generic.” Google said it had cooperated with the regulator and was disappointed by the warning.

“We remain committed to these efforts and collaborating constructively and in good faith with the e-Safety Commissioner, government and industry on the shared goal of keeping Australians safer online,” said Google’s director of government affairs and public policy for Australia, Lucinda Longcroft.

X’s noncompliance was more serious, the regulator said, including failure to answer questions about how long it took to respond to reports of child abuse, steps it took to detect child abuse in livestreams and its numbers of content moderation, safety and public policy staff.

The company confirmed to the regulator that it had cut 80% of its workforce globally and has no public policy staff in Australia, compared to two before Mr. Musk’s takeover.

X told the regulator its proactive detection of child abuse material in public posts dropped after Mr. Musk took the company private.

The company told the regulator it did not use tools to detect the material in private messages because “the technology is still in development”, the regulator said. — Reuters

Cybersecurity priority lacking among business leaders — Accenture report

Buildings are seen along EDSA in Quezon City, July 3, 2022. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

Many business leaders do not prioritize cybersecurity, leaving their companies more vulnerable to security breaches and threats, according to a study by global professional services company Accenture.

More than half (60%) of the 1,000 chief executive officers (CEOs) surveyed globally do not employ a security-by-design approach or initially incorporate cybersecurity into their business operations, Accenture said in its report emailed to reporters on Monday.

The report said that 44% of CEOs prefer episodic intervention over ongoing attention when dealing with cyber threats.

At the same time, the study noted that 96% of the CEOs agree that cybersecurity is a key enabler for the growth and stability of their organizations, with 74% expressing concerns about their ability to mitigate damages from a cyber-attack.

“It is a disconnect that highlights that a majority of CEOs lack confidence that their organizations are truly cyber-resilient,” Accenture said. “Their uncertainty is reflected in how they prioritize their cybersecurity investments.”

“Technology innovation, including generative AI and quantum computing, environmental challenges, shifting consumer preferences, supply chain interruptions, and geopolitical instability are colliding to disrupt boardroom agendas and make cybersecurity resilience a top priority,” it added. 

With the rapidly evolving threat landscape, Accenture noted that only 33% of CEOs said they understand the potential cost their business could incur from cybersecurity negligence. 

“It is often only after experiencing a cyberattack that the CEO understands the importance of cybersecurity and begins to personally engage time and effort into it,” the company said. 

“Such an approach is risky, given the exponential increase in cybercrimes and the potential impact on reputation and brand,” it added. 

Research published by Cybersecurity Ventures showed that cybercrime losses are expected to increase to $10.5 trillion in 2025, from $8 trillion this year.

Accenture noted the recent high prevalence of state-sponsored attacks, cybercriminal groups, ransomware-as-a-service, supply chain attacks, and attacks on critical infrastructure this year contributing to said growth. 

The company has advised business leaders to invest in cybersecurity through proactive changes to their business strategy, talent and culture, technology, ecosystems, and continuous resilience, it said in its report. 

“Cybersecurity should reduce organizations’ risk and optimize capabilities and should be given the same level of importance as financial performance,” Accenture said on establishing a value-based cyber protection strategy. 

“Conduct required trainings to upskill the team and, if needed, bring in managed security service providers,” it added on fostering a culture of cyber-savviness at all company levels. 

“The digital core should be built with security by design, and it should have secure access.” 

“Cyber risk assessment shouldn’t be limited to specific departments or functions,” it said on building cybersecurity ecosystems. “It should be an enterprise-wide exercise.” 

For continuous resilience beyond the organization, Accenture noted that collaborative relationships must be fostered to share threat intelligence and shape local and global policies.

“Build industry-leading security benchmarks and use tech to predict threats before it happens,” it added on embracing ongoing cyber-resilience to stay ahead of the curve. 

It reported a 16% higher incremental revenue growth, 21% more cost reduction improvements, and 19% healthier balance sheet improvements among cyber-resilient CEOs. 

The Accenture cyber-resilient CEO survey was conducted in June 2023 with the participation of 1,000 CEO respondents from 15 countries across 19 industries, with $1 billion or more of annual revenues in their own business. — Miguel Hanz L. Antivola

Bayer to introduce its direct-seeded rice system in the Philippines 

BAYER.COM

Bayer AG said on Monday it plans to bring its direct-seeded rice program to the Philippines in 2024, offering farmers an alternative cultivation method touted to be more climate-friendly.

Bayer launched the system in India this year and says it can help reduce water use by up to 40%, greenhouse gas emissions by up to 45%, and manual labour costs by up to 50%.

Rice farmers traditionally first grow seedlings in nurseries before transplanting them in flooded paddy fields, a practice used on about 80% of the world’s rice crop currently. 

Bayer said its system involves rice hybrids that can be sown directly in the soil.

The Philippines is among the world’s top 10 rice producers, but its output remains insufficient to meet domestic demand, while India is the world’s largest exporter of the staple grain.

Bayer made its announcement at the start of a four-day international rice conference in Manila organized by the Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).

Separately, IRRI announced that its scientists have identified genes in rice with low and ultra-low glycaemic index (GI), which it considered a breakthrough in efforts to help curb rising cases of diabetes globally.

At present, many cultivated rice varieties have a GI level not considered healthy for people with diabetes, IRRI said.

“IRRI’s latest discovery offers the opportunity to develop rice varieties with low GI, and for the first time ever, ultra-low GI levels, to meet the health needs and dietary preferences of consumers,” said Nese Sreenivasulu, head of IRRI’s grain quality and nutrition research unit. — Reuters

China says PHL violates its sovereignty, ‘illegally’ occupied Pag-asa Island 

PHOTO FROM PHILIPPINE COAST GUARD

The Philippines has seriously violated Chinese sovereignty, Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday.

The comment came after Manila said a Chinese navy ship shadowed and attempted to cut off a Philippine navy vessel conducting a resupply mission near Pag-asa Island (Thitu island) in the South China Sea.

“The Philippine side illegally occupied the islands and seriously violated China’s sovereignty,” the foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular news conference. — Reuters

US tackles loopholes in curbs on AI chip exports to China – official

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The US will take steps to prevent American chipmakers from selling semiconductors to China that circumvent government restrictions, a US official said, as part of the Biden administration’s upcoming actions to block more AI chip exports.

The new rules, details of which Reuters is reporting for the first time, will be added to sweeping US restrictions on shipments of advanced chips and chipmaking equipment to China unveiled last October. The updates are expected this week, other people familiar with the matter said, though such timetables often slip.

The new rules will block some AI chips that fall just under current technical parameters while demanding companies report shipments of others, said the official, who provided information on condition of anonymity.

A spokesperson for the US Department of Commerce, which oversees export controls, declined to comment.

The latest crackdown on tech exports to China coincides with US efforts to thaw difficult relations between the world’s two largest economies. Several senior members of the Biden administration have met their Chinese counterparts in recent months, and the latest round of rules risks complicating the diplomatic effort.

The Biden administration has said it designed the export curbs to keep U.S. chips and equipment from strengthening China’s military. Beijing has accused the United States of abusing export controls to suppress Chinese companies. The restrictions marked a historic shift in US-China tech policy.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Last year, government restrictions kept Nvidia, the world’s most valuable chipmaker, from shipping two of its most advanced AI chips to Chinese customers, chips that have become the industry standard for developing chatbots and other AI systems.

But Nvidia soon released new variants for the Chinese market that were less sophisticated and got around the US export controls. One, named the H800, has as much computing power at some settings used in AI work as the company’s more powerful but blocked H100 chip. Still, some key performance aspects are limited, according to a specification sheet seen by Reuters.

The US now plans to introduce new guidelines for AI chips that will restrict certain advanced datacenter AI chips that are not currently captured, the US official said.

While the official declined to identify which additional chips will be effectively banned, Nvidia’s H800 is a semiconductor sources have suggested the administration has wanted to block.

Santa Clara, California- based Nvidia did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In June the company’s chief financial officer said that if the H800 and a related chip called the A800 were restricted, they did not anticipate it “would have an immediate material impact on our financial results.”

Chips meant for consumer products like laptops will be exempt from the new curbs, the official said. But companies will need to tell the Commerce Department when they are filling orders for the most powerful consumer chips to make sure they are not being used in ways that threaten national security, according to the official.

In order to keep AI chips the US views as too powerful from China, the official said the US planned to remove one of the parameters – the “bandwidth parameter” – it has used to restrict exports of certain AI data center chips. By removing this parameter, another guideline kicks in, widening the scope of chips covered. This would likely mean the speed at which AI chips talk to each other would be reduced.

This is important because training the largest AI models is impossible on one chip and requires many chips tied together. If one slows the speed they communicate at, it makes AI development more challenging and expensive.

The US also plans to introduce a “performance density” parameter to help prevent future workarounds, the official said, but declined to elaborate.

 

Evolving technology

The updated rules also are meant to cover AI chips as technology evolves. The US will require companies to notify the government about semiconductors whose performance is just below the guidelines before they are shipped to China, the official said. The government will decide on a case-by-case basis whether they pose a national security risk but they can be shipped unless the chipmaker is told otherwise.

The updates to the October 2022 rules may also close a loophole that gives Chinese companies access to American artificial intelligence chips through Chinese units located overseas, as Reuters reported last week.

The rules are not expected to include restrictions on access to US cloud computing services, or those of allies, but the US will seek comments on the risks of such access and how they might be addressed, the official said.

The Biden administration told Beijing of its plans to update the contentious rules this month, Reuters reported earlier in October, as part of a policy aimed at stabilizing relations between the superpowers. – Reuters

Fearing China, South Korea targets contractors on Taiwan navy submarines

STOCK PHOTO | Image by 12019 from Pixabay

 – South Korean authorities cited the risk of Chinese economic retaliation when they charged marine technology firm SI Innotec last year with violating trade laws for its work on Taiwan’s new military submarine program, according to a police document seen by Reuters and two people familiar with the matter.

In a Feb. 17, 2022 affidavit to a judge seeking the arrest of SI Innotec executive director Park Mal-sik, police said authorities feared a repeat of the sweeping sanctions imposed by Beijing in 2016, after Seoul decided to install THAAD, a U.S. anti-missile system. China agreed to lift those measures in late 2017.

The affidavit said SI Innotec’s deal to supply Taiwan with submarine manufacturing equipment “directly impacts the overall security of South Korea” and police, who had consulted with the country’s arms sales regulator, were “concerned about a crisis similar to a second THAAD deployment, such as economic retaliation”.

The Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA)regulator had told an unidentified subcontractor that the government had “export concerns” regarding Taiwan, and “takes a very cautious stance” on such approvals, the affidavit said.

The judge ordered Park’s arrest on Feb. 28 on grounds that he posed a flight risk and might destroy evidence, according to a person familiar with the matter.

In the sealed affidavit reviewed by Reuters, police cited China’s furious reaction in a 2021 Reuters report about defence contractors and experts from South Korea and six other countries working on Taiwan’s submarine program.

SI Innotec, which was fined in August 2022, and Park, who received a suspended prison sentence, deny wrongdoing and have appealed. Through a company lawyer, Park declined comment.

In a sign of a broader crackdown, two other South Korean companies that allegedly supplied Taiwan were also charged in November with breaking trade laws, and one of their chief executives was accused of industrial espionage, according to court records and four people familiar with the matter.

The identities of defense engineering subcontractors Keumha Naval Technology (KHNT) and S2&K, and the charges facing the co-defendants in their closed-door trial, have not been previously reported. Reuters could not determine if geopolitical tensions were discussed in those ongoing proceedings.

A KHNT official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to media, confirmed an ongoing criminal case. The company declined further comment. S2&K had no comment.

Amid rising military tensions with China, Taiwan unveiled its first homegrown submarine on Sept. 28 in the southern port city of Kaohsiung. The vessel will soon enter sea trials.

The SI Innotec affidavit and interviews with seven people with military, shipbuilding and legal ties show how political considerations about an economic rupture with China, Seoul’s largest trading partner, have weighed on South Korea’s investigations into the three companies. The people spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing legal proceedings with national security implications.

Seoul’s foreign ministry was “completely against” KHNT’s work with Taiwan and signaled its disapproval to DAPA, according to a person familiar with the subcontractor.

The affidavit said many firms with submarine expertise avoided helping Taiwan because they did not expect government approval given the risk of “bigger damage to (the) economy than benefits”, including a possible Chinese ban on South Korean exports.

Police declined to comment, citing national security concerns. The prosecutors’ office that charged the three subcontractors declined to comment on ongoing legal proceedings. Reuters attempted to reach then-president Moon Jae-in through the office of a former aide. The office referred questions to the foreign ministry.

The foreign ministry said it was aware the trials were underway and referred detailed questions to DAPA. DAPA said it follows the law when making decisions on exports, but had no further comment.

A police investigator, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing legal matters, said that there was no pressure from Moon’s liberal government, which left office in May 2022, to get tough on SI Innotec.

Reuters could not determine whether Beijing pressured Seoul to clamp down on the companies.

Asked by Reuters for comment, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party of “colluding with external forces”. The spokesperson did not address a question on whether Beijing pressed Seoul about the subcontractors.

Beijing told Reuters in 2021 that countries involved in Taiwan’s project were “playing with fire”.

Taiwan’s foreign and defense ministries had no comment.

Seoul has no formal diplomatic ties with Taipei and has avoided arming the democratically ruled island over which China claims sovereignty, even as its companies ink weapons deals with other Asian neighbors.

 

FOREIGN EXPERTISE

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen initiated the Indigenous Defense Submarine program in 2016.

The new vessels, which complement two delivered by the Netherlands in the 1980s, are a “strategic deterrent” that make it more challenging for China to project naval power in the Pacific, the Taiwanese admiral leading the project told an internal briefing in September.

Many military experts say that an expanded Taiwanese submarine fleet could complicate a potential invasion by Beijing. US officials, however, warn that such assets should not come at the expense of smaller weapons that would help Taiwan wage “asymmetrical warfare” against China’s far-larger arsenal.

Taiwan drew on the expertise of retired South Korean naval officers – including managers at SI Innotec and KHNT – who are not required by defense ministry regulations to seek permission before working overseas.

SI Innotec is accused of violating the Foreign Trade Act, which requires DAPA’s approval to transfer abroad many “strategic goods” for military use.

The regulator is also tasked with promoting exports, a role that requires officials to make hard decisions on otherwise profitable deals that might irk China, said four people familiar with the criminal cases.

In 2019, SI Innotec agreed a deal with Taiwanese shipbuilder CSBC to supply and install $12 million in welding and assembly equipment for submarine pressure hull manufacturing, according to contracts presented at trial.

The equipment was not designed solely for military purposes and did not involve sensitive technology, SI Innotec told Reuters.

SI Innotec said the contract, at CSBC’s request, listed the equipment’s primary use as for wind power generation. It told Reuters it is “customary” for dual-use equipment contracts to be “signed for industrial use, not exposing military use” and Taiwanese clients are discreet about defense work.

CSBC, which leads construction for the submarines, has an offshore wind power business. It declined to comment on its contracts.

In April 2020, DAPA suggested SI Innotec check with it whether the equipment could be categorized as military goods and require export approval, according to court documents.

In response to Reuters questions, the subcontractor said it told DAPA it was exporting dual-use goods, which can undergo a self-certification process that the regulator does not oversee. The results of that self certification showed export approval was not needed and DAPA was informed, SI Innotec said.

In August 2022, the Changwon District Court fined SI Innotec 14 billion won ($10.42 million).

“The accused were fully aware that the subject equipment would be used to manufacture a military submarine”, the court ruled.

SI Innotec said police designated its equipment as military goods after a “subjective and opaque” consultation with DAPA reliant on “limited data”. It said it had “strong doubts” about whether its exports would be considered military grade if they had not been sent to Taiwan.

SI Innotec CEO Park Moo-sik — who was not personally charged — continues to work in Taiwan on the project, said two people familiar with his movements. He declined comment through a company lawyer.

 

QUESTION OF PERMISSION

KHNT and its chief executive, retired naval officer Yang Hyang-kweon, are alleged to have illicitly transferred a submarine component to Taiwan, said two people familiar with the subcontractor’s agreement.

Yang – who did not respond to requests for comment – was detained last year and released on bail in March, court records show.

The component was related to a torpedo launching tube, according to two people familiar with KHNT’s work. KHNT’s co-defendant, S2&K, specializes in such systems.

KHNT initially went through DAPA’s process, according to three people familiar with the matter. But it received no response when it wanted to send detailed designs and went ahead to meet a deadline, two of the people said.

It was at this point that Seoul’s foreign ministry told DAPA it disapproved of the deal, one of them said.

“There are many things that South Korea can help Taiwan with but can’t in reality”, said defense diplomacy researcher Cho Hyeon Gyu, who served as military attache in Taipei and Beijing. Relations with China and the difficulty of secretly supporting Taiwan severely narrowed Seoul’s ability to help, he added. – Reuters

Deadly Indonesian cough syrup was almost pure toxin, court papers show

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Steffen Frank from Pixabay

 – An Indonesian drugmaker whose cough syrup is among products linked to the deaths of more than 200 children last year used ingredients with toxin concentrations of up to 99% in 70 batches of medicine, prosecutors said in a court filing.

The accusations against drugmaker Afi Farma were made in a court in Kediri, in the province of East Java, where the company is based, and Reuters is the first to report the charge that it used highly toxic ingredients.

The criminal case comes as efforts grow worldwide to tighten oversight of drug supply chains after a wave of poisonings linked to contaminated cough syrups that killed dozens more children in countries such as Gambia and Uzbekistan.

Two batches of propylene glycol, a key base for syrupy medicines that Afi Farma received from October 2021 to February 2022 and used in its cough medicine, contained instead as much as 96% to 99% of a toxic substance, ethylene glycol (EG), a charge sheet in the case showed, in an undated court filing.

When asked who had carried out the testing and how, prosecutor Ikhsan Nasrulloh told Reuters it was done by police last year.

A lawyer for Afi Farma, Reza Wendra Prayogo, told Reuters no accusation of intentional poisoning had been proved against the company, adding that Indonesia’s drug regulator, BPOM, did not require drugmakers to do a rigorous testing of ingredients.

He said a 2018 BPOM regulation allowed drugmakers to use tests done by raw material suppliers, requiring them only to run “identification tests” that do not stipulate toxicity testing.

BPOM did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Afi Farma is one of four companies Indonesian police have charged in an investigation into the supply of tainted cough syrups, with a court case set to be heard on Oct 18.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says the safe limit for the known toxins EG and diethylene glycol (DEG) is no more than 0.10%, based on global standards.

Indonesia’s health ministry also adopted that limit in its 2020 guidelines on drug standards.

EG is employed in making antifreeze and de-icing solutions for cars, among other uses. If swallowed, it may cause acute kidney injury.

Both EG and DEG can be substituted for propylene glycol by unscrupulous producers as they cost less than half the price, several drug experts told Reuters.

Afi Farma’s licence to make drugs was revoked late last year and its products taken off the shelves for violating rules on manufacturing.

Four company officials, including the chief executive and the quality control manager, have been arrested and charged with negligence for “consciously” not testing the ingredients, despite having the means and responsibility to do so, the charge sheet shows.

Instead they relied on certificates provided by its supplier regarding product quality and safety. Now prosecutors are seeking jail terms of up to nine years for the officials, according to the charge sheet.

Afi Farma denied the accusation through its lawyer.

Domestic drug regulator BPOM has previously said several parties in the drug supply chain had exploited a gap in the safety rules and drugmakers did not run sufficient checks on raw ingredients used.

The contaminations have sparked criminal investigations, lawsuits and a surge in regulatory scrutiny worldwide.

Last month Reuters reported that some Indian drugmakers involved could not prove they had bought pharmaceutical grade ingredients or tested their medicines for the toxins. – Reuters

[B-SIDE Podcast] Divorce in the PHL: Reimagining Filipino norms and values

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Divorce is quite a taboo topic in the predominantly Catholic Philippines. Lobbying for divorce has mapped its way into Filipinos’ understanding of the State, religion, family, abuse, principle, and love.

In this B-side episode, Athena Charanne R. Presto, a sociologist and policy consultant for the United Nations Development Programme, discusses with BusinessWorld reporter Miguel Hanz L. Antivola the challenges and sociocultural implications of enacting divorce in the Philippines.

A Senate committee approved in September Senate Bill No. 2443, a consolidated measure on absolute divorce — the farthest legislative push it has reached to date.

Ms. Presto observed that the latest version of the divorce bill has reached a commendable level of inclusivity and safety, almost identical to the grounds for annulment.

“You have to have been separated for a number of years, have irreconcilable differences, or have a proven case of domestic violence or abuse,” Ms. Presto said, listing the grounds for absolute divorce in SB 2443.

“But I think we can still push our definition of divorce beyond that,” she added.

“I think divorce should include the fact that you, as adult individuals, decide to call it quits already without the need for ‘acceptable reasons’… perhaps you just fell out of love or have differences.”

The Philippines remains one of only two countries in the world, alongside Vatican City, without a divorce law.

Amid decades of lobbying, one major challenge remains: “The loudest critics of divorce are not religious actors themselves but policymakers who conveniently invoke religious doctrine to serve their own political interests,” Ms. Presto said.

She noted that comparing the successes and failures of other countries’ marriage customs can be misguided. “That should not be the be-all and end-all of implementing divorce in the Philippines.”

“Having divorce is better than not having divorce,” she said. “We need to argue more based on Philippine data.”

“A divorce law must address misconceptions about the law itself,” she added, referring to dismantling misinformed associations such as people using it as an ‘emergency exit’ or ‘harming Filipino family values.’

Ms. Presto said that Filipino norms and values are bound to change over time with society, given the increasing number of transnational families, same-sex couples who adopt children, and single parenthood, even as depicted in national media.

“Whether you like it or not, the composition of the Filipino family is changing,” she said. “Our marriage norms will change, but not for the worse.”

Passing divorce will challenge the Filipino toxic mentality of ‘relentless suffering’ in marriage, alongside empowering wives and husbands to continue their lives through a viable option, Ms. Presto noted.

Along with norms, social institutions are also seeing changes, such as the Catholic Church ‘relieving pressure’ and opening up to more nuanced realities, and media representation straying away from damaging stereotypes, she added.

However, Ms. Presto noted an increasing number of politicians who believe that men and women are equally oppressed, which undermines the rightfully women-centric arguments for divorce.

The 2017 National Demographic and Health Survey conducted by the national statistics agency reported that one in four Filipino women aged 15-49 had experienced physical, emotional, or sexual violence by their husband or partner.

“You need to expose the misinformed opinions of all these senators, but you also need their support,” Ms. Presto said, addressing the ‘checkmated’ advocates and stalled progress of divorce in the country.

Recorded remotely on Oct. 9, 2023.

Follow us on Spotify BusinessWorld B-Side

Biden says Hamas must be eliminated, US officials warn war could escalate

REUTERS

 – US President Joe Biden said on Sunday he believes the Hamas militant group must be eliminated but there should be a path to a Palestinian state, after top US officials warned the war between Israel and Hamas could escalate.

Mr. Biden did not think American troops would be necessary on the ground as Israel has one of the “finest fighting forces,” even as American warships headed to the area amid growing clashes on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.

Israel unleashed a ferocious bombing campaign over Gaza in retaliation for unprecedented attacks by Hamas eight days ago that killed some 1,300 Israelis, mostly civilians.

When asked if he believes Hamas must be eliminated entirely, Biden said “Yes, I do. But there needs to be a Palestinian authority. There needs to be a path to a Palestinian state,” he said during a CBS 60 Minutes interview broadcast on Sunday.

The US President warned it would be a mistake for Israel to occupy Gaza but that “taking out” Hezbollah and Hamas was a “a necessary requirement.” He said “It would be a mistake to … for Israel to occupy … Gaza again.”

Israel captured and occupied the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war. It withdrew its settlers and troops from Gaza in 2005, before Hamas’ takeover of the Strip in 2007.

The conflict has sent tensions soaring.

“There is a risk of an escalation of this conflict, the opening of a second front in the north and, of course, Iran’s involvement,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CBS earlier in the day.

Gaza authorities say more than 2,670 people have been killed there, a quarter of them children. Casualties are expected to rise as Israel prepares for a ground assault on the tiny, densely populated enclave that could start within days.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced deployment of a second aircraft carrier group late on Saturday, calling it a sign of “our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war.”

The aircraft carrier the Dwight Eisenhower will join a small fleet including the massive Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in the eastern Mediterranean.

“Iran is the elephant in the room,” a US official briefed on the situation said about the increasing military presence. “The carriers are accompanied by warships and attack planes. Every effort is being made to stop this from becoming a regional conflict.”

Mr. Biden said his message to Iran is to not escalate the conflict.

Iran Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian warned on Sunday his country could act, telling al Jazeera that it had conveyed a message to Israeli officials that “if they do not cease their atrocities in Gaza, Iran cannot simply remain an observer.”

“If the scope of the war expands, significant damages will also be inflicted upon America,” he warned.

Mr. Biden told CBS the threat of terrorism in the US has increased due to growing unrest in the Middle East. He said, however, the US can take care of wars in Israel and Ukraine and still maintain its “international defense.”

Violence on Israel’s northern border is already escalating. Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters launched attacks on Israeli army posts and a northern border village on Sunday; Israel retaliated with strikes in Lebanon.

The US is urging Israel to hold off on its ground offensive to allow humanitarian efforts for Gaza’s residents trapped in the area, several US officials said.

Mr. Sullivan discussed a new weapons package for Israel and Ukraine that would be “significantly higher” than the previously reported $2 billion. He told CBS that Biden planned to have intensive talks on the package this week with the US Congress, which has been hobbled by Republicans’ struggles to pick a new speaker of the House of Representatives.

Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, speaking in Tel Aviv on Sunday, said the U.S. Senate could move first to approve more funding for Israel. “We’re not waiting for the House (of Representatives),” he said.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on Sunday he is traveling to the region with other senators in coming days to push continued negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Mr. Graham said he intended to introduce a bill that would “allow military action by the United States in conjunction with Israel to knock Iran out of the oil business” if Iran attacks Israel.

 

HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

US government officials also said they are mobilizing to help alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, anticipating a brutal ground offensive.

Israeli officials have made clear it will not be an easy or swift campaign. It faces the challenge that scores of hostages seized by Hamas on Oct. 7 could now be held in a warren of underground tunnels, which its soldiers must clear to destroy Hamas.

Mr. Biden, in a message posted on X, formerly Twitter, said: “We must not lose sight of the fact that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians had nothing to do with Hamas’ appalling attacks, and are suffering as a result of them.”

The US has appointed former ambassador to Turkey David Satterfield as a special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues. His focus would be to “promote the safety of civilians,” the State Department said.

“We’re pushing Israel to delay any action on the ground,” said one US official briefed on the situation. Asked directly if the US was pushing Israel to delay its ground war for civilians, Sullivan told NBC “we are not interfering in their military planning or trying to give them instructions…”

However, he added, the US is telling Israel any actions should follow the law of war, and that “civilians should have a real opportunity to get to safety.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the Egyptian-controlled border crossing into Gaza would reopen and the US was working with Egypt, Israel and the United Nations to get assistance through it.

Hundreds of tonnes of aid from several countries have been held up in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula for days pending a deal for its safe delivery to Gaza and the evacuation of some foreign passport holders through the Rafah crossing.

Mr. Sullivan told NBC, “so far, we have not been able to get American citizens through the border crossing and I’m not aware of anyone else being able to get out at this time.”

He added that he wanted to make sure the civilian population that remained in Gaza had access to food, water and safe shelter, and in an interview with CNN said Israeli officials had recently “turned the water pipe back on in southern Gaza.”

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told Reuters that the Israel assault on Gaza would be bloody.

“I expect urban warfare on steroids,” he said. “There will be cries from the international community for Israel to stand down, but I think it’s imperative that we give Israel the time and space to destroy Hamas.” – Reuters