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9 terrorists, 8 MILFs die in clashes

LOCAL officials and members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front conduct a clearing operation of areas in Pagalungan, Maguindanao del Sur where Dawlah Islamiya terrorists have been spotted. — PHILIPPINE STAR/JOHN FELIX M. UNSON

COTABATO CITY — Members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) killed nine Dawlah Islamiya terrorists and wounded six others in a series of encounters in a barangay along the 220,000-hectare Liguasan Delta over the weekend.

Eight members of the MILF, an erstwhile secessionist guerrilla front compelled to help the government address security issues in areas where it has forces by its peace pact with Malacañang, also died in the gunfights.

As a diversionary ploy, beleaguered Dawlah Islamiya members shot dead a brother of a barangay official in Dalgan in Pagalungan town in Maguindanao del Sur, a two-year-old child and three other villagers before they escaped using small river boats when they sensed that more MILF members were closing in.

Traditional Moro datus and local government executives in Pagalungan, among them Vice Mayor Abdillah A. Mamasabulod, on Monday confirmed to reporters and Bangsamoro regional police officials the skirmishes in Dalgan and nearby areas.

Major Gen. Alex S. Rillera, commander of Army’s 6th Infantry Division, said on Monday that they have received reports about the MILF’s having neutralized nine Dawlah Islamiya terrorists this weekend in maneuvers coordinated with the police and units of the 602nd Infantry Brigade covering Pagalungan and other towns around.

Two members of the terrorist group are suspected of carrying out the deadly bombing that killed four Catholic worshippers at a holy mass held at the gymnasium of the Mindanao State University in Marawi City last Dec. 3.

Mr. Mamasabulod, a senior member of the Pagalungan Municipal Peace and Order Council, said the MILF’s attacks on Dawlah Islamiya members were led by a member of the 80-seat Bangsamoro parliament, Akmad I. Abas, chief of the front’s Eastern Mindanao Group.

Mr. Abas and Mr. Mamasabulod, whose clan is supporting the police and military’s joint anti-terror campaign in their municipality, separately told reporters that eight MILF members were killed, and five others were wounded in the clashes in Dalgan.

“We were to check their locations that the 6th ID first bombarded with 105 Howitzer cannons but they attacked us so there were subsequent firefights in the barangays near the Liguasan Marsh,” Mr. Abas said.

The local police, in a report to the Police Regional Office-Bangsamoro Autonomous Region and the Maguindanao del Sur Provincial Police Office, said there is difficulty in securing the complete names of the nine Dawlah Islamiya terrorists killed by MILF forces since their cadavers were carried away by companions as they escaped towards the center of the Liguasan Delta.

Mr. Rillera and Bangsamoro regional police director Brig. Gen. Allan C. Nobleza separately said they appreciate the support of Abas and his followers to the 6th ID and PRO-BAR’s joint effort to decimate via tactical maneuvers the Dawlah Islamiya forces holding out in Maguindanao del Sur towns along the Liguasan Delta. — John Felix M. Unson

CAAP probes Piper plane crash

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO/INCIDENT MANAGEMENT TEAM VIA RADYO PILIPINAS TUGUEGARAO

BAGUIO CITY — The Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) has set out on an in-depth investigation into the cause of the crash of a Piper plane in the Sierra Madre mountain range in Isabela province last Nov. 30, authorities said on Monday.

CAAP spokesperson Eric Apolonio said their investigators are going to retrieve three important pieces of evidence at the crash site: the emergency locator transmitter, the engine and the propeller.

He said these are crucial in determining what really happened to the small aircraft that killed the pilot and his passenger.

On Sunday morning, the body of passenger Emma Escalante was sighted by K9 trackers 200 meters from the area where the plane crashed. Three days earlier, the remains of the pilot, Captain Levy N. Abul, II, were found near the crash site.

The Piper plane took off from the Cauayan Airport in Isabela at 9:30 a.m. and was expected to land at Palanan Airport, also in Isabela. But mid-flight, it sent a distress message around 11:08 a.m. until its last recorded blip was on the radar was traced at 29.09 nautical miles east of Cauayan Airport. — Artemio A. Dumlao

Pfizer, PCS sponsor doctors’ training

PFIZER Philippines Country Manager So-Myung Lim (left) and PCS President Dr. Maria Concepcion C. Vesagas attend the signing ceremony of the Memorandum of Agreement (MOA). — HANDOUT/PFIZER PHILIPPINES

PFIZER Philippines and the Philippine College of Surgeons (PCS) have entered a three-year partnership to enhance surgeons’ skills through Continuing Medical Education (CME).

The recent MoA signing — attended by physicians Evan N. Payawal, Pfizer Philippines interim country medical director, and Maria Concepcion C. Vesagas, PCS president — marks the collaborative effort to provide PCS members and healthcare professionals with top-tier medical knowledge on Antimicrobial Stewardship (AMS).

In its press release on Monday, Pfizer said the focus on AMS principles and practice would help address issues of resistance, surgical infections, and optimal antibiotic use.

Utilizing an on-demand Learning Modular System (LMS) and webinars, PCS members will gain insights crucial to surgical competencies, it said.

“It’s more than a collaboration; it’s a commitment to the people we serve,” Pfizer Philippines Country Manager So-Myung Lim said.

For her part, Ms. Vesagas stressed the importance of staying at the forefront of knowledge in a constantly evolving medical landscape. The partnership, aligned with the 79th PCS Annual Clinical Congress theme of “Collaborations and Innovations in the Era of Global Surgery,” aims to contribute to excellence in patient surgical care and safety. — Nate C. Barretto

DoLE extends labor assistance to athletes

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

THE DEPARTMENT of Labor and Employment (DoLE) has signed a memorandum with the Games and Amusements Board (GAB) to provide labor and employment assistance to professional and retired athletes.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU), inked on Dec. 6, provides livelihood opportunities, and emergency employment programs to professional athletes who were retired, injured, or undergoing mandatory rest periods.

Inclusive employment facilitation programs, including Public Employment Services, the National Skills Registration Program, and timely Labor Market Information dissemination, will be extended to athletes and other beneficiaries associated with GAB.

Labor Secretary Bienvenido E. Laguesma said the MoU enhances the department’s partnership with GAB, reinforcing efforts to safeguard and secure the well-being of workers in the sports industry. “This signed partnership will serve as a means to address the needs of not only GAB stakeholders but also those of DoLE,” he said in a statement in Filipino.

GAB Chairperson Richard S. Clarin affirmed the collaboration with the labor department, expressing a commitment to “foster employment opportunities within the sports and amusement sector while prioritizing the safety and well-being of all employed professional athletes.”

Under the Office of the President, the GAB is tasked with the regulation and supervision of professional sports and related activities.

Both government bodies have committed to investigating and resolving labor-related reports, organizing lectures and seminars on employee rights and benefits during sports gatherings, and supporting applications for assistance from athletes and stakeholders.

Agri output seen likely to expand in Q4 — DA

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

THE Department of Agriculture (DA) said farm output will likely post positive growth in the fourth quarter, citing preliminary estimates.

“Based on initial data that we are seeing, it is possible that (agri-sector growth in Q4) would go up, because we did not have major calamities. There have not been too many typhoons,” Agriculture Spokesman Arnel V. de Mesa said in an appearance on PTV, the government broadcast network.

A positive growth outcome would reverse the 0.3% contraction reported by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) in the third quarter.

“Crop production is good, we are (also) expecting growth in the livestock and poultry subsector,” Mr. De Mesa said.

“Hopefully fisheries will recover, because in the third quarter this was the sector that saw the biggest decline” alongside the crops segment, he added.

Crop production, which accounts for 54% of farm production, dropped 0.4% in the third quarter.

Fisheries, meanwhile, declined 6.1% in the three months to September.

“We are hoping… (that by) early next year the agri sector will really recover,” he said.

The PSA is due to release agricultural output data for the fourth quarter in January.

The DA set a target of 2.3%-2.5% for agricultural output growth for 2023.

Additionally, Mr. De Mesa said that the DA is currently monitoring commodity prices during the year-end holidays.

He added that well-milled rice prices have fallen to the P51 per kilogram (kg) level from P52 previously, while regular-milled rice prices remained steady.

“Most of the prevailing (prices) are ranging from P51 to P52 per kg,” he said.

“As for supply, the harvest is almost 100% over. We are also expecting the rice imported from India amounting to 295,000 metric tons (MT),” he added.

The Indian government allocated a quota of 295,000 MT of non-basmati white rice for the Philippines, after having declared a freeze on such exports to safeguard its own domestic supply.

Separately, Bantay Bigas Spokesperson Cathy L. Estavillo said rice prices have not declined during the harvest.

“Prices have jumped to P52 per kg… It is not only in Metro Manila that prices are higher but in rice-producing provinces and municipalities (as well),” Ms. Estavillo said in an appearance on One News.

Mr. De Mesa said that the agricultural damage and losses brought about by shear line conditions in Southern Luzon and the Visayas, as well as the earthquake in Mindanao, have had little effect on agricultural prices.

“Those who were affected had just started planting and we have given them seed. So, there is no effect on the recent harvest,” he said. — Adrian H. Halili

Well-milled rice averages P52.92/kg in mid-Nov.

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

THE national average retail price for well-milled rice in mid-November was P52.92 per kilogram (kg), according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Prices rose 1.26% in the Nov. 15-17 period, which the PSA refers to as the second phase of the month, compared with prices between Nov. 1 and 5, or the first phase.

The highest retail price was P56.19 per kg in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or BARMM.

On the low end was the Ilocos Region where rice was retailing for P48.71 per kg during the period.

The PSA reported that regular-milled rice averaged P47.42 per kg, up 2.38% compared to the first phase.

The highest price for regular-milled rice was also recorded in BARMM with an average of P51.75 per kg, while Cagayan Valley posted the lowest average price of P42.92 per kg.

During the second phase of November, the national average retail price for refined sugar was P91.59 per kg, down 0.37% from the first phase.

Prices in the Eastern Visayas were the highest at P103.58 per kg. The lowest price was reported in BARMM at P81.95 per kg.

Brown sugar averaged P80.85 per kg, a 0.4% decline from the previous phase.

The PSA reported that brown sugar prices were highest in Calabarzon at P88.86 per kg during the period.

The lowest average price was reported in the Zamboanga Peninsula at P73.7 per kg.

On Sunday, sugar producers urged the government to intervene due to the continued decline of raw sugar farmgate prices compared to market prices, according to Manuel R. Lamata, president of the United Sugar Producers Federation of the Philippines.

Mr. Lamata added that sugar prices have declined to P2,300-P2,500 per 50-kilo bag, which is below production cost levels.

The Sugar Regulatory Administration has said that it will be pushing for a suggested retail price for refined sugar of P85 per kg.

Meanwhile, the PSA reported that the average price for red onion rose 6.16% to P192.18 per kg compared with the previous phase of November.

Soccsksargen recorded the highest average retail price of P237.97 per kg, while the lowest was recorded in Central Luzon at P143.8 per kg. — Adrian H. Halili

Creative industry growth seen at up to 8% in 2024

PHOTO COURTESY OF THE METROPOLITAN THEATER

THE creative industry is expected to grow between 6% and 8% next year in terms of gross value added, with the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) actively promote the sector’s growth, an official said.

Rafaelita M. Aldaba, undersecretary for DTI’s Competitiveness and Innovation Group, said the industry grew by double-digit levels in the third quarter, adding confidence to the 2024 forecast.

“We had 15.5% year-on-year growth in the third quarter so we are hoping that that will translate to around 6-8% for next year,” Ms. Aldaba told reporters.

“For this year, we are hoping that it will still grow in the last quarter considering all these activities that we’re undertaking,” she said.

In the third quarter, the creative industry generated P52.8 billion in gross value added. It accounts for 7.3% of the Philippine economy or P1.6 trillion in 2022.

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that the symbols, images and other related activities segment accounted for 32.9% or P528.35 billion of the creative economy last year.

Rounding up the top three contributors were advertising, research and development, and other artistic service activities (20.8%) and digital interactive goods and service activities (20.3%). The other segments are audio and audiovisual media activities; media publishing and printing; music, arts and entertainment; visual arts; traditional cultural expression; and art galleries, museums, ballrooms, conventions and trade shows.

The creative industry employed 6.98 million workers in 2022, mostly involved in traditional cultural activities.

In September, Ms. Aldaba said that the creative industry is projected to register double-digit growth in the next three years and achieve its goal of becoming among the top creative economies in ASEAN. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

Trade dep’t sees Hungary possibly investing in farming, water projects

TRADE Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty meets with Istvan Jakab, deputy speaker of the National Assembly of Hungary, in Budapest. — DTI

THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said it sees opportunities to tap Hungary’s expertise in agriculture, information and communication, and water technologies, leading to possible investments in the Philippines.

“The Philippines and Hungary have established extraordinary friendship that transcends beyond diplomatic relations,” Trade Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty said in a statement on Monday.

“We have established dynamic and productive economic relations over the last five years and are positioned to gain further, particularly in trade and investments,” he added.

The DTI made the statement in the wake of the business forum held on the sidelines of the Philippines-Hungary Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation (JCEC), in which at least 60 Hungarian companies participated.

Investment opportunities could also arise for key Philippine industries such as renewable energy, green metals, electric vehicle manufacturing, and smart and high-tech light manufacturing.

The DTI also said Hungary plans to offer a tied aid loan of $33 million to the Philippines to finance social infrastructure projects related to water management.

The projects include the Philippine Multisectoral Nutrition Project under the Department of Social Welfare and Development, which aims to improve community access to clean and safe drinking water.

In 2022, merchandise trade between the Philippines and Hungary was $189.84 million, making it the seventh-largest export market in the European Union. It was also the 15th largest destination of Philippine goods admitted to the EU under the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) concessional scheme.

Hungary currently employs 9,000 overseas Filipino workers, which is expected to increase further amid strong demand for agricultural workers, as well as those in, services, transportation, and healthcare.

The DTI said that talks on education were also held during the event, including the implementation of their memorandum of understanding on Vocational Education and Training signed in 2022.

In the fifth JCEC, the countries discussed the collaboration of the Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences with various institutions in the Philippines as well as with the Philippine Department of Agriculture.

Mr. Gepty also met with Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly of Hungary, István Jakab, on the sidelines of the JCEC. Mr. Jakab is the chairman of the Hungary-Philippines Friendship Group.

“Deputy Speaker Jakab highlighted the role of the JCEC in advancing economic cooperation and presenting opportunities for mutual benefit,” the DTI said, citing Mr. Jakab.

“He hopes the JCEC can add further impetus to promote bilateral relations which is the key role played by the Friendship Group of Philippine and Hungarian parliamentarians,” it added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

Fuel marking program credited with generating P801.55 billion in revenue 

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

THE Bureau of Customs (BoC) said it raised P801.55 billion from marked fuel since the program began in 2019.

“The figures are looking good; every year the collection increases. We are able to catch a lot (of violators). It’s easy to catch, because in fuel marking, there are random inspections of gas stations,” Customs Commissioner Bienvenido Y. Rubio told reporters recently.

The collection totals for marked fuel were generated between Sept. 4, 2019 and Nov. 30, 2023. Volume totals of 70.48 billion liters run from Sept. 4, 2019 to Dec. 2, 2023.

“In 2022, the BoC collected P234.46 billion from its fuel marking program.”

The BoC said revenue from marked fuel consisted of P771.74 billion in customs duties and P29.81 billion in excise taxes since the program began.

“Anyone can just message the bureau if they have doubts on whether the fuel is smuggled or not. No matter where it comes from it has to pay duties and taxes, even if it comes from a freeport. There has to be proof its duties are paid,” Mr. Rubio added.

The fuel marking program was launched in 2019. Fuel is marked with a special dye in order to signify tax compliance, while the absence of the dye is considered an indication that the fuel may be smuggled.

The program is authorized by Republic Act 10963, or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion law.

In 2022, the BoC collected P234.46 billion from marked fuel.

In the first 11 months of 2023, the BoC collected P813.651 billion from all sources, accounting for about 93% of its full-year target. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Budget utilization hits 98% year to date

BUDGET SECRETARY AMENAH F. PANGANDAMAN — COURTESY OF DEPARTMENT OF BUDGET AND MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE

THE GOVERNMENT has spent 98% of its budget in the year to date, Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said.

“For our budget this year, we have spent roughly 98%,” Ms. Pangandaman said during the Philippine Economic Briefing in Iloilo on Monday.

The DBM had announced a budget release rate as of the end of November of 97.6%, equivalent to P5.406 trillion out of the P5.537-trillion adjusted spending plan this year, leaving P131.25 billion in remaining funds.

In a separate report, the DBM said the cash utilization rate of government agencies hit 94% in the first 10 months.

The National Government (NG), local governments and state-owned companies used P3.39 trillion of the P3.6 trillion worth of notices of cash allocation issued as of the end of October.

“If you’ll notice during the past quarter, our NG spending is not what we expected; thus, our gross domestic product (GDP) growth was not that high in the past quarter,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

She said that agencies were able to expedite spending after they were ordered to draft “catch-up plans” to address the low budget utilization in the first half.

Government spending contracted 7.1% in the second quarter, which brought GDP in the April-June period to a weaker-than-expected 4.3%. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Prescriptive period on false returns

Christmas is just around the corner, and people are busy buying gifts for their loved ones and godchildren, among others. Those who missed the 11.11 sales are probably looking forward to the 12.12 promo today, with avid online shoppers ready to press the “checkout” button on their favorite online store.

Since the pandemic, an increasing number of Filipinos have been using the internet for their shopping needs. Unfortunately, some people are also taking advantage of this season to boost their sales or income by resorting to false advertising, especially on social media. Hence, consumers should be vigilant when buying online.

Currently, we do not have a law that directly punishes social media companies for posts that contain false advertising. However, we have laws and issuances such as the Consumer Act of the Philippines and Joint Administrative Order (JAO) No. 22-01 issued by the Department of Trade and Industry and other agencies that could be used to penalize sellers for false advertising and unfair trade practices.

The same is true for tax returns.  Filing a false return may also result in the taxpayer’s paying deficiency taxes and penalties, and it may even be grounds for an extension of the prescriptive period if certain conditions are met.

Under the 1997 Tax Code, as amended, the BIR has three years from the filing of the return to issue an assessment against a taxpayer. This prescriptive period aims to protect the interests of taxpayers from unreasonable tax investigations. But there is an exception to this three-year general rule. Section 222(a) of the tax code provides that in the case of a false return or fraudulent return with intent to evade tax or of failure to file a return, the period may be extended to 10 years after the discovery of the falsity, fraud, or omission. Accordingly, the exception to the three-year prescriptive period may apply in three cases, i.e., if the taxpayer: (1) filed a false return; (2) filed a fraudulent return; and (3) failed to file a return. 

The question now from some taxpayers is how Section 222(a) should be interpreted in the case of a false return. Would an unintentional or honest mistake in the figures reported in return render it a false return for purposes of applying the 10-year prescriptive period?  What are the requisites, if any, in determining whether the same may fall under the exception? 

In various cases, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) applied the 10-year prescriptive period in cases of false return with substantial under-declaration by invoking the old Supreme Court (SC) decision, Aznar vs. Court of Tax Appeals. In that case, a return is considered false if it deviates from the truth, whether such deviation was deliberate or inadvertent. Hence, it was interpreted that an honest mistake in a return may be construed as a false return to warrant the application of the extraordinary period to assess.

On the other hand, various SC cases (one of which is Commissioner of Internal Revenue vs. Philippine Daily Inquirer, Inc., G.R. No. 213943), which ruled that the entry of wrong information due to a mistake, carelessness, or ignorance, without intent to evade taxes, does not constitute a false return. Hence, there should be sufficient evidence to prove the intentional falsity on the part of the taxpayer in order for the 10-year prescriptive period to be applied.

Because of these diverging decisions, some BIR examiners are still invoking the extraordinary prescriptive period even if the misstatement or error is unintentional, especially if the three-year prescriptive period has lapsed. Taxpayers, on the other hand, are hoping for clear guidelines on the proper application of Section 222(a) to ensure that their rights are protected against unreasonable tax audits.     

Fortunately, in the recent en banc decision of the SC in the case of McDonald’s Philippines Realty Corp. vs. the CIR (G.R. No. 247737), this issue has finally been settled. The Court ruled that for purposes of invoking the extraordinary period under Section 222(a), the BIR must be able to prove that such misstatement or error is intentional and deliberate.

As clearly explained by the Court, the purpose of the examination of the taxpayer’s books by the tax authorities is to determine the correct amount of taxes. Each audit will necessarily expose varying errors and/or irregularities in how the taxpayer computes its tax liabilities. If the BIR’s position is followed (i.e., unintentional errors will be considered false returns under Section 222(a)), then all such inaccuracies committed by the taxpayer — including mere clerical or typographical errors or arithmetic calculations, no matter how trivial — render the return false and may be used as grounds to invoke the exceptional 10-year period. This creates an opportunity for the tax authorities to find errors at whim, renders the basic three-year assessment period under Section 203 of the Tax Code, as amended, superfluous and inoperative, and extends that assessment period virtually in all tax audits. 

Accordingly, the SC specifically stated that the Court’s ruling in the Aznar case, which applied the extraordinary 10-year assessment period under Section 222(a) to false return in general, i.e., regardless of whether the deviation is intentional or not, has been abandoned. The extraordinary period should apply to a false return when: (1) the return contains an error or misstatement, and (2) such error or misstatement was deliberate or willful. Both conditions should be complied with. Otherwise, the regular three-year prescriptive period applies. 

Moreover, the SC pointed out that the BIR has the burden to establish the existence of the above-mentioned statutory requisites with clear and convincing evidence. The BIR, however, may be relieved from such burden of proof when there is prima facie evidence of falsity or fraud as defined under Section 248(B) of the Tax Code, as amended. There is prima facie evidence of false or fraudulent return if BIR is able to ascertain that there is substantial under-declaration of taxable sales, receipts, or income, or substantial overstatement of deductions of expense. The misstatement may be considered substantial if it exceeds 30% of the amount declared in the return. 

Accordingly, the burden of proof is shifted to the taxpayer if there is prima facie evidence of falsity or fraud. If, however, the taxpayer was able to successfully overturn the presumption (e.g., he was able to demonstrate that the misstatement ascertained by the BIR had been inadvertent or attributable to an honest mistake or was not deliberate or willful), the tax authorities cannot rely on the presumption in proving the taxpayer’s intent to evade taxes.

Moreover, the SC emphasized that the assessment notice issued to the taxpayer must clearly state that the extraordinary prescriptive period is being applied on the basis of the allegation of falsity or fraud. The BIR should also not have acted in a manner that is inconsistent with the invocation of the extraordinary period to assess or has misled the taxpayer that the basic period will be applied. All these due process requirements must be complied with. Otherwise, a regular three-year prescriptive shall be applied.

This recent decision of the SC hopefully clarifies and provides guidelines to both the tax authorities and taxpayers on what constitutes a false return for purposes of applying the 10-year prescriptive period. Nevertheless, it is still important that the taxpayer ensure that all items reported in a return are correct to avoid any issues as to whether or not such an error or omission constitutes a false return. Otherwise, such falsity may indeed result in severe consequences.

Christmas signifies the birth of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, and serves as a wonderful time to celebrate. Let’s take time this season to reflect on what we already have and be thankful. Christmas is best celebrated with our loved ones and friends if our hearts are full of joy, love, hope, and gratitude. May your Christmas be merry this year.   

Let’s Talk Tax is a weekly newspaper column of P&A Grant Thornton that aims to keep the public informed of various developments in taxation. This article is not intended to be a substitute for competent professional advice.

 

Edward D. Roguel is a partner from the Tax Advisory & Compliance division of P&A Grant Thornton. P&A Grant Thornton is one of the leading audits, tax, advisory, and outsourcing firms  in the Philippines, with 29 Partners and more than 1000 staff members.

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Argentina markets want Milei to deliver fiscal ‘kick’ to economy

ARGENTINE president-elect Javier Milei addresses supporters after winning Argentina’s runoff presidential election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Nov. 19, 2023. — REUTERS

BUENOS AIRES — Argentine voters may have cause to worry about new President Javier Milei’s pledge for painful economic shock therapy, but markets are keen, hoping the libertarian will give the economy a “firm kick” when he lays out his plan this week.

The outsider economist on Sunday reaffirmed plans for tough spending cuts to address the country’s worst economic crisis in two decades and bring down inflation nearing 150%, though warned the situation would get worse before getting better.

“There is no money,” he said repeatedly in his maiden speech, pledging to make tough decisions even if that mean pain for the country. “The challenge we have ahead is titanic.”

Analysts said that Mr. Milei, who won over voters with a “chainsaw” economic plan to cut state spending and overturn a deep deficit, needed to follow through on this tough talk. His election win has buoyed stocks and bonds in recent weeks.

“The biggest risk in the coming days is that the signals are not strong enough,” said consultancy EcoGo in a note. “The signals should include a firm fiscal kick and a clear signal of willingness to carry out structural reforms.”

Mr. Milei and economy chief Luis Caputo are expected to announce a package of economic measures early this week, with investors looking out for a devaluation of the peso, now held by currency controls, public spending cuts and potential privatizations.

“It will be crucial for the new administration to quickly revive confidence,” said economist Gustavo Ber, adding that the government needed social and legislative support given the likely economic pain ahead and inflation spiking further.

“The macroeconomic picture… is, to say the least, terrifying. Although inflation has already hit its highest in the last thirty years, everything indicates that the worst is yet to come,” said the consulting firm GMA Capital Research.

Mr. Milei will need to rebuild depleted central bank reserves analysts estimate to be net $10 billion in the red, ease a looming recession, bring down 40% poverty and revamp a failing $44-billion program with the International Monetary Fund.

His first weeks may set the tone.

“To get out of this situation it will be necessary for the new government to act quickly and eliminate capital controls as soon as possible,” said Lautaro Moschet, economist at the Freedom and Progress Foundation.

Morgan Stanley said in a report said that without a strong economic program, Argentina may need to sharply weaken its exchange rate, currently around 365 per dollar, which could see the price of greenbacks double.

“An FX adjustment seems inevitable,” the investment bank said in the Dec. 7 note, adding that it could weaken to 700 per dollar. “An economy with no credible economic program may need to compensate with a weaker FX to attract investment.” — Reuters