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Italy will become a target should it join attacks against Yemen, Houthi leader says

PEXELS

ROME — Italy will become a target if it takes part in attacks against Yemen, a senior official from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said in an interview published on Monday.

Mohamed Ali al-Houthi, head of the Houthi’s supreme revolutionary committee, told daily La Repubblica that Italy must be neutral in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and put pressure on Israel to stop attacks on Gaza, adding that would be the only way to achieve peace in the region.

Italy said on Friday it would provide the admiral in command of a European Union Red Sea naval mission it has joined to protect ships from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militia.

The mandate of the mission, which will be launched in mid-February, will be to protect commercial ships and intercept attacks, but not take part in strikes against the Houthis, the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said. — Reuters

PHL lands fourth in Kaspersky’s global ranking of countries targeted by online threats

PIXABAY

The Philippines dropped to fourth place in the global ranking of countries most targeted by global threats according to Kaspersky Security Network (KSN).

In a report released Monday, KSN said that in 2023 web threats against the country fell by about 2%, however, the Philippines is still the top country in Southeast Asia in terms of web-borne threats last year.

The Philippines (48%) came behind Mongolia (51.8%), Moldova (48.9%), and Greece (48.8%) in the recent global ranking. The Philippines has consistently been among the top 10 countries in the ranking since 2019.

In 2022, it was in second place.

Among Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines is trailed by Malaysia and Vietnam (48.0% and 38.70%, respectively), with the overall percentage of users attacked by web-borne threats from January to December 2023.

Kaspersky, a global cybersecurity and digital privacy company, “strongly advised” the Philippines from letting down its guard.

Yeo Siang Tiong, Kaspersky’s general manager for Southeast Asia, notes there were two reasons possible behind the country’s drop in ranking, one is that the Philippines is “making headway in cybersecurity.”

“We classify the Philippines to be in the intermediate group of countries that are identifying cyberattacks and making efforts to implement rules,” he said.

The second, is that cybercriminals use methods that are not directly seen.

“One trend that we consistently have been seeing lately is their preference for targeted attacks instead of the spray-and-pray method,” said Yeo Siang Tiong.

Web or online threats are done through browsers, allowing cybercriminals to spread malware. This can be done even without the involvement of the victim.

Complacency is still not an option, Yeo Siang Tiong said.

“Cybercriminals continue to develop their tools and techniques. They surprise cybersecurity experts all the time,” he said in the same press release.

“Our mindset should be how to be able to hunt threats before they could cause harm and damage… This is where threat intelligence comes in handy,” he added. — Patricia B. Mirasol

Indonesia 2023 GDP growth slows to 5.1%

INDONESIAN national flags fly at a business district in Jakarta, Indonesia, Feb. 5, 2021. — REUTERS

JAKARTA — Indonesia’s annual economic growth fell slightly, but remained solid at 5.05% last year, as exports contracted amid falling commodity prices, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday.

That growth rate was close to the government’s latest outlook of 5% and slightly below the 5.3% recorded in 2022, when economic activity was boosted by record exports amid a global commodity boom.

Last year, prices of Indonesia’s main commodities like palm oil, coal, and nickel dropped, while demand from major trade partners also softened amid weakening global growth.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy was also feeling the pinch from the central bank’s rate hikes, totalling 250 basis points between August 2022 and October 2023, which hit domestic consumption.

In the final quarter of 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.04% year-on-year, roughly in line with a forecast of 5% predicted by economists polled by Reuters.

The government is targeting 5.3% GDP growth this year, hoping campaign spending for the Feb. 14 presidential and legislative elections will boost domestic demand, with investment also potentially coming in after uncertainty surrounding the transition of power diminishes.

The statistics bureau is due to release the breakdown of GDP data later on Monday. — Reuters

Australian writer Yang Hengjun given suspended death sentence in Beijing

SYDNEY/BEIJING — A Beijing court on Monday handed Australian writer Yang Hengjun a suspended death sentence, five years after he was first detained in China and three years after a closed-door trial on espionage charges.

Yang, a pro-democracy blogger, is an Australian citizen born in China who was working in New York before his arrest at Guangzhou airport in 2019. He had been accused of spying for a country China has not publicly identified and the details of the case against him have not been made public.

Sydney based scholar Feng Chongyi said a court on Monday delivered a suspended death sentence that would convert to life imprisonment after two years.

It was a “serious case of injustice”, he said, adding that Yang had denied the charges. He urged the Australian government to seek medical parole for Yang.

Yang’s sentence was confirmed by another human rights lawyer in Beijing who has been following his case.

“He was found guilty of all charges,” the lawyer said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Australia is “appalled” at the court’s decision and has called in China’s ambassador, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Monday.

Wong said in a statement on Monday the Australian government understood the sentence can be commuted to life imprisonment after two years if the individual does not commit any serious crimes in that period.

“This is harrowing news for Dr Yang, his family and all who have supported him,” she said.

Yang’s family was “shocked and devastated by this news, which comes at the extreme end of worst expectations”, said a family spokesman in Sydney.

Australia had said it was troubled by repeated delays in Yang’s case, and had advocated for his well-being, including access to medical treatment “at the highest levels”.

The Chinese foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

A Beijing court heard Yang’s trial in secret in May 2021 and the case against him has never been publicly disclosed. He has denied working as a spy for Australia or the United States.

Yang wrote about Chinese and US politics as a high-profile blogger and also wrote a series of spy novels before his detention.

His two sons, who live in Australia, wrote to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in October on the eve of his visit to Beijing, urging him to seek Yang’s release on medical grounds.

“The verdict casts a shadow over bilateral ties and will for some time, as it acts as a potent reminder of the opacity of the Chinese system and its imperviousness to reasonable foreign complaints,” said Richard McGregor, senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

His supporters have argued Yang should be released on medical parole, and he was told last year he had a 10 cm (4 inch) cyst on his kidney that may require surgery.

Yang was detained as Australia-China ties deteriorated in 2019, and hopes of his release had been raised by the release of Australian broadcaster Cheng Lei shortly before Albanese visited China last year.

James Laurenceson, Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at University of Technology, Sydney, said that Beijing had said it wanted to move beyond the stabilisation of ties with Australia, but that the sentence would make a thaw harder.

“This decision makes it extremely difficult for the Albanese government to do so in terms of managing the domestic politics. The strong language already used by foreign minister makes plain their disappointment,” he said. — Reuters

China bets on open-source chips as US export controls mount

Semiconductor chips are pictured at chip packaging firm Unisem (M) Berhad plant in Ipoh, Malaysia Oct. 15, 2021. — REUTERS

BEIJING — When a Beijing-based military institute in September published a patent for a new high-performance chip, it offered a glimpse of China’s bid to remake the half-trillion dollar global chip market and withstand US sanctions.

The People’s Liberation Army’s Academy of Military Sciences had used an open-source standard known as RISC-V to reduce malfunctions in chips for cloud computing and smart cars, the patent filing shows.

RISC-V is an instruction set architecture, a computer language used to design anything from smartphone chips to advanced processors for artificial intelligence.

The most common standards are controlled by Western companies: x86, dominated by US firms Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, and Arm, developed by Britain’s Arm Holdings, owned by SoftBank Group.

US and UK export controls prevent the sale of only the most advanced x86 and Arm designs – which produce the highest-performance chips – to clients in China.

But as the US widens restrictions on China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment, the open-source nature of RISC-V has made it part of Beijing’s plan to curb its dependence on Western technology, although the emerging architecture accounts for a fraction of the chip market.

“The biggest advantage of the RISC-V architecture is that it is geopolitically neutral,” the Shanghai government’s Science and Technology Commission said in a report published in April.

Beijing and dozens of Chinese state entities and research institutes, many sanctioned by Washington, invested at least $50 million in projects involving RISC-V between 2018 and 2023, according to a Reuters review of over 100 Chinese-language academic articles, patents, government documents and tenders, as well as statements from research groups and companies.

While the figure is modest, recent RISC-V breakthroughs and applications in China, many with government funding, have raised Beijing’s hopes that the open-source standard could one day threaten the x86-Arm duopoly, according to state media. Intel and AMD did not respond to questions about the matter, while Arm declined to comment.

RISC-V chips made by Chinese firms and research institutes can now power self-driving cars, artificial-intelligence models and data-storage centres, according to two industry figures and the previously unreported documents.

The military science academy did not respond to a request for comment sent via China’s State Council.

GROWING MATURITY

Arm and x86 are closed architectures, meaning they are proprietary and charge users a license fee. Their outlines are thousands of pages long, with complex instructions and numerous incompatible versions that can only be modified by their developers.

RISC-V is free to use and has a simpler outline, often leading to more energy-efficient chips, and users can build atop the framework to suit their needs.

Half of the more than 10 billion RISC-V chips shipped globally by 2022 were made in China, the state-run China Daily reported in August. Bao Yungang, deputy director of China’s Institute of Computing Technology, told a chip conference last June that funding for RISC-V startups in China had reached at least $1.18 billion to that point.

“The RISC-V ecosystem in China is the most mature globally”, a result of the need of government and industry to develop technology that can circumvent US sanctions, said a sales representative from a Beijing-based company that develops RISC-V chips, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

Some 1,061 patents involving RISC-V were published in China last year, up from 10 in 2018, Anaqua’s AcclaimIP database shows. While the US saw a similar increase, 2,508 such patents have been published in China, to the US’s 2,018.

Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Huawei, neither of which responded to requests for comment, were the fourth- and fifth-largest filers.

Arm is the dominant architecture in China, so RISC-V is a long-term bet to insure Beijing against a scenario in which Arm is forced to not just halt licensing to Huawei, as it did temporarily in 2019, but to all Chinese companies.

While the performance of RISC-V chips lags Arm in complex computing tasks, the gap is closing as RISC-V startups proliferate and more tech companies invest in the open-source standard, said Richard Wawrzyniak, principal analyst at the SHD Group, a market research firm.

‘TRUE RISE TO POWER’

RISC-V technology emerged last decade from labs at the University of California, Berkeley.

A few months after Huawei was blacklisted by the Trump administration in May 2019, RISC-V International, a non-profit foundation that oversees development of the standard, moved its headquarters from Delaware to Switzerland.

Calista Redmond, CEO of RISC-V International, told Reuters the move was not to “circumvent any legal restriction by any government” but “to ensure continued ecosystem growth of the open standard for years to come”.

Still, the foundation says on its website that the move alleviated uncertainty as there was concern from the RISC-V community “across 2018-2019” related to the geopolitical landscape, without mentioning China.

Reuters reported in October that some US lawmakers were urging the Biden administration to impose export restrictions around RISC-V, a move that Redmond has said would slow the development of new and better chips.

The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry Security declined to comment.

For China, there has been a geopolitical incentive to invest in the emerging standard.

In 2019, researchers at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China organized a seminar on how RISC-V could help China achieve tech self-sufficiency.

“Everyone agreed…if domestic chip systems want to get rid of the limitations of x86 and ARM architectures and realise a true rise to power, RISC-V will be the biggest opportunity,” says a summary of the seminar published on the university’s website.

Among recent breakthroughs in China, state-owned car maker Dongfeng Motor Corporation last year developed an automotive MCU chip, used to control the electronic systems of a car, using RISC-V.

Dongfeng and China’s Ministry of Science and Technology did not respond to requests for comment.

MILITARY INTEREST

Universities and research institutes linked to China’s military have also developed and promoted RISC-V in recent years, Reuters’ review found.

The PLA-run National University of Defense Technology was in the top 15 for RISC-V patents filed in China since 2018, according to AcclaimIP, as was Peng Cheng Laboratory, which has partnerships with at least two defence-related institutes.

At an academic conference in November 2022, researchers at Beihang University, whose scientists are involved in the development of Chinese military aircraft and missiles, presented the design for a RISC-V chip that processes radar signals.

The year prior, researchers at the Institute of Software at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), a state think tank, co-developed a RISC-V chip to prevent a type of cyberattack. The institute is a PLA supplier, government tenders show.

In May 2023, the CAS Institute of Computing Technology, which is under US sanctions, unveiled the second generation of “Xiangshan”, a RISC-V high-performance PC chip, and “Aolai”, a RISC-V operating system.

Interest from the Chinese institutes and universities, which did not respond to queries, echoes investment in RISC-V research labs and companies a decade ago by the U.S. government’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

An agency spokesperson said that while it did not directly fund the development of the RISC-V architecture, it funded efforts that used RISC-V to “create prototype chips and test research hypotheses in the interests of U.S. national security”.

Despite its promise, RISC-V so far has not broken x86 and Arm’s dominance. The SHD Group estimated that 1.9% of all system-on-a-chip units shipped in 2022 had a RISC-V processor.

But with demand for AI chips growing, RISC-V’s low cost, ease of customisation and energy efficiency have made it attractive to some chipmakers.

Original equipment manufacturers “want to develop highly customized cores. And RISC-V really fits that bill,” Ziad Asghar, Qualcomm’s senior vice president of product management, said in an interview published on the company’s website in September. — Reuters

Powell says US Fed can be ‘prudent’ in weighing rate cuts

REUTERS

WASHINGTON — The US Federal Reserve can be “prudent” in deciding when to cut its benchmark interest rate, with a strong economy allowing central bankers time to build confidence inflation will continue falling, Fed chair Jerome Powell told the CBS news show “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired Sunday night.

“The prudent thing to do is…to just give it some time and see that the data confirm that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustainable way,” Mr. Powell said. “We want to approach that question carefully,” with the economy’s current strength keeping the risk of recession reduced as policymakers wait for the final bits of data that will convince them to proceed with rate cuts.

The interview took place on Thursday, before a blowout January jobs report on Friday showed firms added 353,000 new positions, with continued strong wage growth and 3.7% unemployment that has barely budged in two years.

The United States’ sustained recovery amid falling inflation has seemed to put the Fed on the verge of what Powell characterized as a “historically unusual” situation, though he refrained from saying that a “soft-landing” was now all but assured.

Indeed he said the Fed was watching risks to both its price stability and maximum employment mandates, and would consider weakening job growth as a possible reason to accelerate rate cuts.

“We’re focused on the real economy and doing the right thing for the economy and for the American people over the medium and long term,” Mr. Powell said. “We have to balance the risk of moving too soon…or too late.”

“IN A GOOD PLACE”

Fed chairs, covered intently by the financial press worldwide, occasionally use appearances on popular and widely available shows to flag turning points in policy or to take note of major developments. Mr. Powell did so at the start of the pandemic to reassure the public that the central bank stood behind the economy.

In this case the message was a positive one of falling inflation, strong employment, and a coming easing of credit conditions — all without the “pain” that Mr. Powell had earlier warned was in store for households as the Fed contained the worst outbreak of inflation in 40 years.

“We think the economy’s in a good place. We think inflation is coming down. We just want to gain a little more confidence that it’s coming down in a sustainable way toward our 2% goal,” he said.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, was running at a 2.6% annual rate as of December, though over shorter three- and six-month horizons it has been below the Fed’s target.

In the wide-ranging conversation, the Fed chair reiterated many of the comments made at his press conference last week after the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady in the current range of between 5.25% and 5.5%. This included his view that the next Fed meeting in March was likely too soon for rate cuts to begin.

An outside shock could always throw the economy off course, he said, listing the world’s current set of geopolitical crises. Yet even some potential economic trouble spots, like China’s real estate problems and slowing growth rate, may have less impact on the US than might be expected.

“Our financial system is not deeply intertwined with theirs…Our production systems are not deeply intertwined with theirs,” Mr. Powell said. “The implications for the United States — we may feel them a bit, but they shouldn’t be that large.”

Absent some unexpected development, the start of rate cuts “is really going to depend on the data,” Mr. Powell said.

Asked about Fed policymaker projections in December that anticipate three quarter point rate cuts this year, the Fed chair said that “nothing has happened in the meantime that would lead me to think that people would dramatically change their forecasts.” — Reuters

US Senate unveils $118 billion bipartisan bill on border security with aid for Ukraine, Israel

IMAGE VIA ARCHITECT OF THE CAPITOL

WASHINGTON — The US Senate on Sunday unveiled a $118 billion bipartisan border security bill that would also provide aid to Ukraine and Israel following months of negotiations, but the measure faces an uncertain future amid opposition by Donald Trump and hardline Republicans.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he would take steps to hold an initial vote on the bill on Wednesday. If the bill were to become law, it would mark the most significant changes in US immigration and border security in decades.

Independent US Senator Kyrsten Sinema told reporters the legislation would secure the US southern border, including by requiring the Department of Homeland Security to “shut down” the frontier to migrants if there are an average of more than 5,000 crossing attempts per day over seven days.

In addition to $20.23 billion for border security, the bill included $60.06 billion to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, $14.1 billion in security assistance for Israel, $2.44 billion to US Central Command and the conflict in the Red Sea, and $4.83 billion to support US partners in the Indo-Pacific facing aggression from China, according to figures from US Senator Patty Murray.

An additional $10 billion would provide humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza, the West Bank, and Ukraine.

The US would provide $4.83 billion to support key regional partners in the Indo-Pacific where tensions have risen between Taiwan and China, as well as $2.33 billion for Ukrainians displaced by Russia’s invasion and other refugees fleeing persecution.

“The priorities in this bill are too important to ignore and too vital to allow politics to get in the way,” Mr. Schumer said in a statement. “The United States and our allies are facing multiple, complex and, in places, coordinated challenges from adversaries who seek to disrupt democracy and expand authoritarian influence around the globe.”

The key overseas security provisions of the bill largely match what President Joe Biden requested from Congress in October, when he asked for additional funds for aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

That request was stalled by House Republicans’ insistence that it be tied to a shift in immigration policy.

“I urge Congress to come together and swiftly pass this bipartisan agreement,” Mr. Biden said, also praising the migration measures in the bill.

Senator Schumer said the agreement would provide more frontline personnel and asylum officers and provide “faster and fair” immigration decisions.

Mitch McConnell, the top Senate Republican, has supported the negotiations, saying Republicans would not get a better deal under a Republican White House.

“The Senate must carefully consider the opportunity in front of us and prepare to act,” Mr. McConnell said in a statement.

Mr. Schumer said in a news conference that he had never worked so closely with long-term Senate colleague Mr. McConnell as on the bill.

“At many occasions we thought the negotiations had fallen apart,” Mr. Schumer said.

Other congressional Republicans have said Mr. Biden can enact many of the changes they want to immigration policy through executive action, though they had previously called for legislative action.

Immigration is the second largest concern for Americans, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Wednesday and is a top issue for Republicans specifically. The US Border Patrol arrested about 2 million migrants at the border in fiscal year 2023.

Mr. Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination to challenge Mr. Biden in the November election, has campaigned heavily on opposition to immigration. House Republicans are also pushing ahead with an effort to impeach President Biden’s top border official, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. — Reuters

PJS Law launches combination with Dentons, the world’s largest global law firm

Connecting clients to leading talent in the Philippines and around the world

PJS Law has launched its previously announced combination with global law firm, Dentons. This launch positions the combined firm to serve clients in six ASEAN countries, representing 83% of the entire GDP of the ASEAN region, with offices in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam.

PJS Law’s reputation as a leading service provider in the Philippines, coupled with Dentons’ worldwide reach, enables the combined firm to help clients Grow, Protect, Operate and Finance their organizations in the Philippines and more than 160 locations in over 80 countries around the world.

The combination is the result of a longstanding relationship between the two firms, aligned in helping clients meet future challenges and maximize opportunities in the Philippines and around the world. Dentons’ polycentric foundation allows the firm to be uniquely global yet deeply local in each of its locations, and accordingly PJS Law will retain control of its operations, finances and office leadership.

“This combination represents a significant milestone in our commitment to delivering the highest standards of legal excellence and service to our clients,” said Regina Jacinto-Barrientos, CEO of PJS Law, Dentons’ member firm in the Philippines. “We look forward to combining our local knowledge with unrivaled global insights, providing clients a broader range of expertise and resources – here in the Philippines and around the world.”

“Our shared commitment to delivering exceptional client service in one of the world’s most dynamic and strategically important markets brought our two firms together,” said Elliott Portnoy, Global CEO of Dentons. “This important combination enables us to meet our clients’ evolving and complex needs in the Philippines, across ASEAN and around the world.”

PJS Law is a leading full-service law firm in the Philippine market with 59 lawyers and professionals. It is owned and led by a team of 20 partners, 60% of whom identify as women. PJS Law is widely recognized in the market for Energy and Infrastructure, Projects, Corporate, Mergers and Acquisitions, Banking and Finance, Capital Markets and Dispute Resolution and is consistently ranked in the top tier by the world’s most influential legal and financial publications.

“This combination further builds on Dentons’ momentum in the ASEAN region,” said Gerald Singham, CEO of Dentons’ ASEAN Region. “We are committed to combining with the leading law firms that truly understand clients’ complex and nuanced needs – both in their local geographies and in the more than 80 countries where Dentons has a presence.”

In ASEAN, Dentons now connects clients to talent in the following locations:

 


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Inflation likely cooled further in Jan.

A pork seller waits for customers at Paco Market, Feb. 1, 2024. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

HEADLINE INFLATION likely eased further in January, as favorable base effects may have offset rising prices of some food items and higher utility rates.

A BusinessWorld poll of 16 analysts last week yielded a median estimate of 3.1% for January inflation, settling within the 2.8-3.6% forecast of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

If realized, this will be the second consecutive month that inflation will be within the BSP’s 2-4% target band. It will also be slower than the 3.9% print in December.

Analysts' January inflation rate estimates

At 3.1%, January inflation would be the slowest since the 3% print in February 2022.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the January consumer price index (CPI) report on Feb. 6 (Tuesday).

Analysts said base effect was a major factor why inflation likely slowed in January.

“The January print will benefit from a high base effect — recall that inflation hit a 14-year high of 8.7% in January last year — which will temper inflation,” Sarah Tan, an economist from Moody’s Analytics, said in an e-mail.

Headline CPI soared to 8.7% in January 2023, which marked the fastest rise in prices since November 2008. After the peak in January, inflation gradually slowed throughout 2023, bringing full-year inflation to 6%.

Pantheon Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco in an e-mail said inflation may slow to 3.4% in January, mainly driven by a significant drop in inflation for housing and utilities “where base effects will do a lot of heavy lifting.”

He also said food inflation may continue to moderate to 5% in January from 5.5% in December 2023.

Meanwhile, China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez said inflation may increase 0.7% month on month amid higher prices of rice, meat, fruits, and fish.

Data from the Department of Agriculture showed that as of Jan. 31, prices of regular milled rice rose to as much as P53 per kilo from P52 on Dec. 29.  Prices of beef rump ranged at P390-P500 per kilo as of end-January, while prices of beef brisket were at the P350-P440 a kilo range.

“Higher prices of key agricultural goods such as rice and meat produce, and hikes in electricity rates likely added upward pressure,” Ms. Tan said.

Manila Electric Co. earlier raised the rate for a typical household by P0.6232 to P10.9001 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in January.

“Additionally, an uptick in domestic pump prices, utilities, and another tranche of sin taxes contributed to the upward pressure on prices. However, lower prices of vegetables possibly tempered the rise in overall inflation,” Ms. Velasquez said.

Fuel retailers implemented price hikes in January. For the month, pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P4.40 a liter for gasoline, P2.90 a liter for diesel and P0.85 a liter for kerosene.

“In January, fuel prices slightly increased, rice prices remained elevated, while electricity prices were hiked. Nonetheless, we expect headline CPI in January to have decelerated sharply to 3.1% on the back of very favorable base effects, and partly due to vegetable prices easing as of late,” Aris D. Dacanay, HSBC economist for ASEAN, said in an e-mail.

However, base effects may wear off in the coming months, Mr. Dacanay added.

Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said inflation would only settle sustainably within the 2-4% target by the fourth quarter this year.

“This is because we assume agricultural disruptions due to El Niño and rebound in oil prices as the Middle East conflict remains a significant threat,” he said.

Hotter weather in the first half of the year may also lead to an uptick in electricity rates, Mr. Arogo said. He noted that the minimum wage hikes implemented last year will be reflected in consumer prices this year.

Ms. Tan also said it would be difficult for inflation to stay firmly within the 2-4% target band this year.

“We expect some volatility in the opening months of the year given the risk that the El Niño weather pattern could strengthen and keep food prices elevated. That should see inflation bump around the 4% mark before returning firmly to BSP’s target range by mid-2024,” she said.

The El Niño phenomenon, which affects local agricultural production, is expected to last until the second quarter of the year.

Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said full-year inflation may hit 3.7% by end-2024.

He noted higher food inflation may cause headline CPI to breach the 4% target again in April, before settling back to the target in the second half this year.

“We project core inflation to end 2024 at 3.5% for a full-year average of 3.2%. El Niño-spawned food price shocks will not spill over into the non-food segment of CPI (60% weight),” he said.

For his part, ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said the central bank’s baseline forecast shows inflation is within the 2-4% target this year.

“We believe that we could very well see inflation settle within target for the year barring any supply-side shocks and if fiscal authorities continue their push to combat price pressures,” he said in an e-mail.

The BSP’s average inflation baseline forecast is at 3.7% for 2024 and 3.2% for next year. Meanwhile, its risk-adjusted inflation forecast is at 4.2% this year and 3.4% for 2025.

BSP TO KEEP RATES STEADY
With inflation likely to slow further in January, it is highly likely that the BSP’s tightening cycle is over, Ms. Tan said.

“An easing inflation in January, especially since it will be tempered by a high base effect, will see the BSP hold its policy rate steady at 6.5% when they next meet in February,” she said.

Despite the widely expected decline in inflation, the BSP is expected to remain vigilant against risks and price pressures, according to Ms. Velasquez.

“Various factors, including the impact of El Niño on rice production, geopolitical risks affecting freight costs and oil prices, and domestic risks like transport fare increases due to public transport modernization, will keep inflation risks elevated throughout the year,” she said.

“As a result, the BSP will likely continue to closely monitor and manage these risks to ensure price stability and maintain an appropriate monetary policy stance,” she added.

The BSP hiked borrowing costs by 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023. This brought the key interest rate to 6.5%, the highest in 16 years.

The Monetary Board may also opt to keep rates steady due to the stronger-than-expected economic growth print in the fourth quarter, Mr. Chanco said.

“Accordingly, we now expect the BSP to remain on hold next month, and the earliest the Board is likely to cut is now May, from our point of view,” he said.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 5.6% in 2023, slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and below the 6-7% target of the government.

Patrick M. Ella, economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., said the inflation figures in the coming months and the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut is a more important variable in the BSP’s policy decision making.

“The real question is if the BSP will consider a 50-bp cut in the next few months and so far, I’m still not convinced they will, but we have to keep this topic open for consideration,” he said.

The BSP will have its first policy review of the year on Feb. 15.

Jobless rate may rise to 6.3% this year — BMI

Jobseekers fill out application forms at a mall, Jan. 18, 2024. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE in the Philippines may pick up to 6.3% this year, which could impact consumer spending throughout 2024, according to BMI Country Risk & Industry Research.

“The Philippine economy is heavily dependent on high employment, especially in the service industry,” BMI said in a report dated Feb. 1.

Latest data from the local statistics agency showed the jobless rate dropped to a record low of 3.6% in November 2023, lower than 4.2% in October and 4.2% seen a year earlier.

The number of unemployed Filipinos decreased by 12.3% to 1.83 million in November from 2.09 million in October, and by 15.8% from 2.18 million in November 2022.

For the first 11 months of 2023, the unemployment rate stood at 4.5%, well below the 5.3%-6.4% target under the Philippine Development Plan.

“Over 2024, we forecast unemployment to average 6.3%, as the labor market loosens slightly. While inflation continues to increase, the main drivers are elevated food and energy costs as opposed to wages,” BMI said.

According to BMI, the strong labor market led to a robust Philippine consumer spending growth in 2022 and 2023, even as elevated inflation dampened gains in incomes.

“However, as major markets and economies slow in 2024, we expect some uptick in unemployment rates across the board,” BMI said, noting that rising joblessness is a risk to the consumer outlook.

“Lower levels of personal savings, previously functioning as an option to support current consumption patterns, will mean that households will have to reorient their purchasing patterns and cut back on their spending (by moving down price points or buying fewer goods at similar spending levels),” it said.

BMI forecasts Philippine household spending to grow by 6.3% from the 5.6% growth recorded in 2023. This is also in line with the firm’s economic growth forecast of 6.2% this year, up from the 5.6% expansion in 2023 but still below the government’s 6.5-7.5% target.

“Spending will remain impacted by the environment of elevated inflationary pressures over 2023 as well as high debt levels, and its servicing costs. However, easing inflation and a tight labor market will support spending, as real wage growth returns to positive territory, supporting purchasing power over the year,” it said.

High levels of household debt may also hurt household spending this year, BMI said.

“A high level of household debt remains a risk to our consumer outlook, as it limits the future availability of debt, but also draws on current disposable income levels, especially as debt servicing costs increase on the back of interest rate increases,” it said.

The BSP raised key policy rates by 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023 to tame inflation, making it the most aggressive central bank in the region. This brought the key rate to 6.5%, the highest in 16 years.

Even though BMI expects policy rate cuts from central banks this year amid easing inflation, borrowing costs may not reach their pre-pandemic lows and households may need to adjust to high interest rates.

“Many households took on significant levels of debt in the previous low interest rate environment,” it said. “The risk to consumer spending is that the cost of servicing this debt at higher interest rates becomes a larger-than-anticipated draw on disposable incomes, to a point where consumers will have to cut back spending, especially in more non-essential segments.”

Consumer spending may also be affected by risks to the remittance outlook this year.

“There is a particular demand for Filipino workers skilled in jobs related to medical and health services, construction and housekeeping… However, we do highlight several risks to this income over 2024, mostly related to the negative impact from the rising inflation across several global markets.”

Based on the latest data from the central bank, cash remittances grew by 2.8% to $2.719 billion in November from $2.644 billion a year earlier. The growth in cash remittances was the slowest annual pace since the 2.6% in September. The amount of money sent home to the Philippines was also the lowest since $2.494 billion in May 2023. — Keisha B. Ta-asan

MCC sees ‘terrific’ opportunities for PHL

Millennium Challenge Corp. Chief Executive Officer Alice P. Albright — COURTESY OF DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE FACEBOOK PAGE

THE Millennium Challenge Corp. (MCC) is seeing “terrific” opportunities for the Philippines, which it says is on the right track after once again being eligible for its aid programs.

“We’re looking at a lot of the data for the Philippines. I think that the country has some terrific opportunities ahead,” MCC Chief Executive Officer Alice P. Albright said in a roundtable interview with reporters on Friday.

In December, the MCC Board selected the Philippines as eligible to develop a threshold program, which is a smaller grant focused on policy and institutional reforms.

“The Philippines, amongst several other countries, stood out as countries that are really on the right pathway forward. We’re back here and we’re just delighted about that. We think there’s a promising future,” Ms. Albright said.

The Department of Finance last week met with MCC executives to discuss the steps moving forward.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto was also quoted saying that there is a need to expedite the process and eventually access compact grant resources.

The Philippines’ last threshold program concluded in 2009 and focused on improving anti-corruption across government agencies.

Its last compact program was a $434-million deal which closed in 2016. It supported reforms to strengthen revenue collection and community-driven development projects as well as the rehabilitation of a national road in Samar.

According to the MCC, a compact program is a five-year agreement that targets programs on poverty reduction and economic growth. If the country does not qualify for a compact, it may be eligible for a threshold program, which is smaller grants.

Ms. Albright noted that there was a change in legislation that allowed the Philippines to re-enter a threshold agreement even after its compact ended in 2016.

“We recently had a change in the legislation that allowed us to have a threshold with a country after the country had a compact. That is a new feature and so we’re very excited about that because it continues to give us more options and flexibilities and choices and pathways in working with different countries,” she said.

“The Board of Directors for the first time just this December decided to utilize that threshold after compact capability.”

The Philippines and Tanzania were the first two countries selected for threshold programs after a compact program.

“The country stood up in our latest selection and eligibility round as being very eligible for the threshold, so we’re very excited about that and getting started on it,” Ms. Albright said.

She also noted it may be possible for the Philippines to be eventually selected for the larger-scale compact program in the future.

“Is it possible that the country gets selected for a larger program at some point in the future? Sure, possible. But we’re very much focused on the threshold program right now,” she said.

To become a candidate for the programs, the country must not exceed a certain per-capita or income level and must not be subject to any number of US sanctions.

“In determining country eligibility, the Board considers: a country’s performance on the scorecard indicators; the opportunity to reduce poverty and generate economic growth within a country; and the availability of funds,” according to the MCC’s website.

Candidates for subsequent compact selection are also reviewed based on their performance implementing prior compact programs, country progress towards achieving its results, and the nature of the country’s partnership with the MCC, among others.

Meanwhile, the scorecard itself measures performance of the country on the policy criteria mandated in the MCC’s authorizing legislation. 

Based on the Philippines’ latest scorecard on the website, the Philippines passed half of the overall scorecard and the democratic rights criteria but failed the control of corruption indicator.

The Philippines also failed to meet the performance standard for other indicators such as fiscal policy, access to credit, rule of law, freedom of information, health expenditures, education expenditures, immunization rates, and girls’ secondary education completion rate.

“We do scorecards and sort of an evaluation internally of every country every year… it’s very evidence-based about who gets selected and why,” Ms. Albright added.

The MCC chief executive said the threshold program is still in the early stages and that it has not yet narrowed down a focus area or financing amount.

“The first step will be for the government to appoint what we call a national coordinator, which is the main counterparty that we will work with. But we can work as quickly as the government is able to work going forward, and we expect to have some very good conversations, and we expect things to unfold very, very quickly,” Ms. Albright said.

The MCC was created by the US Congress in 2004 and focuses on providing financing to developing countries. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Energy companies seen to sustain earnings in first half

KENNY ELIASON-UNSPLASH

By Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporter

EARNINGS of listed energy companies in the Philippines are expected to be sustained during the first half of the year, driven by improving power supply conditions and capacity expansions, according to analysts.

“We expect energy sales volumes to post stable growth on the back of a growing economy. However, we do expect top-line growth to moderate year-on-year as power prices generally continue to ease given improving power supply conditions,” China Bank Securities Corp. Research Associate Andrei Soriano said in an e-mail.

Mr. Soriano said earnings growth in the industry will still be driven by the companies’ continued capacity expansion and margin improvements.

“PH energy companies are poised for growth in 2023 and 1H24, driven by increased demand, RE (renewable energy) initiatives, and infrastructure development,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

The government targets to increase the share of RE in the country’s energy mix to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.

For the third quarter, listed energy companies in the country posted mixed results. Those companies that delivered higher income cited increased demand, higher electricity sales, and strong revenues.

Manila Electric Co. reported an attributable net income of P10.55 billion, up 58% from the P6.64 billion posted a year ago on the back of higher sales of electricity and other services.

For the nine months to September, the power distributor’s attributable net income reached P28.4 billion, higher by 44% from P19.76 billion.

New operating capacity drove the attributable net income of ACEN Corp., which increased by 20.5% to P2.33 billion from P1.94 billion in the previous year.

ACEN’s income attributable to the parent company for the first nine months climbed by 59% to P6.56 billion from P4.12 billion previously.

First Gen Corp. saw its attributable net income rise by 23% to $80.35 million from $65.31 million on the back of better earnings from its geothermal and natural gas portfolio.

From the January to September period, the company’s attributable net income jumped by 31.5% to $246.79 million from $187.62 million.

Meanwhile, Aboitiz Power Corp. registered a consolidated net income of P8.9 billion, marking a 7% decrease due to its distribution group’s “timing of refunds” following rate adjustments mandated by the Energy Regulatory Commission in a resolution issued in 2022.

However, the company’s net income from January to September was P26.74 billion, up 37% from the P19.52 billion a year earlier.

Semirara Mining and Power recorded a 66% decline in attributable net income to P3.4 billion for the third quarter, dragged down by weak coal selling prices, fewer shipments, and lower foreign exchange gains.

Its income for the three quarters fell by 37% to P22.62 billion from P35.95 billion, which the company attributed to the “high base effect and stabilizing global coal market.”

Despite projected growth, analysts said that energy companies should look out for external factors that could influence their operations and performance.

“Despite power gen companies’ commitment to develop the country’s power supply, we remain wary of challenges about the pace of connectivity infrastructure expansion and possible delays in capacity build-out,” Mr. Soriano said.

Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Sales Trading Toby Allan C. Arce likewise said in a Viber message that the growth of the energy sector, especially in renewables, may be constrained by infrastructure challenges.

“Adequate infrastructure is crucial for the efficient generation and distribution of energy, and any delays or limitations in infrastructure development could hinder the sector’s growth,” he said.

Mr. Limlingan said that “vigilance is necessary to navigate challenges related to oil price volatility, regulatory changes, and supply chain disruptions.”