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Geneos cancer vaccine shrinks liver tumors in small trial

NEARLY a third of patients with advanced liver cancer who received a personalized vaccine developed by Geneos Therapeutics along with an immunotherapy drug in a small, early trial saw their tumors shrink, US researchers reported on Sunday.

The result was roughly twice the response typically seen with immunotherapy alone, the researchers said.

Findings from the preliminary study, presented at the American Association for Cancer Research in San Diego and published in Nature Medicine, suggests that vaccines based on mutations only present in a patient’s tumor may boost the immune system’s ability to recognize and attack hard-to-treat cancers.

The findings, which must be confirmed in a larger trial, moves the industry another step closer to effective cancer vaccines, after many past failures, and may expand the types of cancers that such therapies can treat.

Partners Moderna and Merck and Co. and others have had promising results combining customized vaccines with immunotherapy to prevent skin cancer from returning in patients following surgery.

For the study, researchers used samples from patients’ tumors to build vaccines based on neoantigens — new mutations only present on an individual patient’s tumor. The goal was to train the immune system to attack and kill only these unique proteins, leaving healthy tissue unscathed.

Unlike skin cancer, which has many mutations for the body to recognize, liver cancer is considered a cold cancer because it contains fewer mutations, which has rendered immunotherapies less effective.

“This vaccine essentially educates the immune system to recognize antigens that it’s ignored,” said study leader Dr. Mark Yarchoan of Johns Hopkins Kimmel Cancer Center.

The study involved 36 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, the most common form of liver cancer. Patients were given custom-made vaccines on top of Merck’s widely used immunotherapy Keytruda, the standard of care at the time.

Nearly a third of the patients treated with the combination therapy (30.1%) experienced tumor shrinkage, with three of those subjects having a complete response, meaning no detectable signs of the tumor remaining after a median follow-up of 21.5 months.

That compares with the typical response of about 12% to 18% in patients with liver cancer who receive immunotherapy alone.

“This certainly suggested that the vaccine actually added clinical efficacy,” Yarchoan said.

The most common adverse effect was mild injection site reactions. There were no serious adverse events.

Unlike many vaccine candidates based on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, the Geneos treatment is a DNA vaccine in which the genetic code of the mutated proteins is injected into cells using a small electrical impulse. Each vaccine can target up to 40 mutated genes. — Reuters

New Zealand tightens visa rules amid near record migration

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Kerin Gedge from Unsplash

SYDNEY — New Zealand said on Sunday that it was making immediate changes to its employment visa program after a near record migration last year which it said was “unsustainable.”

The changes include measures such as introducing English language requirement for low skilled jobs and setting a minimum skills and work experience threshold for most employer work visas. The maximum continuous stay for most low skilled roles will also be reduced to three years from five years.

“The Government is focused on attracting and retaining the highly skilled migrants such as secondary teachers, where there is a skill shortage,” Immigration Minister Erica Stanford said in a statement.

“At the same time we need to ensure that New Zealanders are put to the front of the line for jobs where there are no skills shortages,” she said.

Last year, a near record 173,000 people migrated to New Zealand, the statement said.

New Zealand, which has a population of about 5.1 million, has seen a rapid growth in its migrant numbers since the end of the pandemic, raising concerns last year that it was fanning inflation.

Neighboring Australia, which has also seen a big jump in migrants, has said it would halve its migrant intake over the next two years. — Reuters

How ACCESS addresses challenges of taking MCLE in the Philippines

The practice of law, just like any other profession, is a continuing learning process. Lawyers are constantly facing the challenge of becoming most knowledgeable, not just about the existing national laws but also about the technical details (even science) of any subject involved in the cases they handle.

That is why the Supreme Court is requiring all members of the Philippine bar (practically all practicing lawyers across the country) to take mandatory continuing legal education (MCLE) facilitated by authorized learning centers.

MCLE is designed to ensure that Filipino law practitioners keep abreast with the law and jurisprudence. The 36 credit units required every 3 years are also aimed at helping lawyers maintain professional ethics and further enhance the standards of the practice.

However, compliance with the MCLE requirements is logically not as easy as it seems. “Some lawyers think MCLE is just a waste of time,” says Atty. Peaches Martinez-Aranas, Managing Partner of boutique law firm LMA Law, faculty member of the Lyceum of the Philippines College of Law, and Co-Founder of ACCESS MCLE, the pioneer in offering online MCLE in the country.

“ACCESS was established in 2017 with the goal of changing how practicing lawyers in the country usually view MCLE. By infusing convenience to this requirement, we aim to make them look at it as an opportunity for continued learning and professional growth,” she adds.

Convenience of online MCLE

As many lawyers find it hard to balance their time for personal and professional matters, ACCESS MCLE had pushed for digitalization of continuing learning for Filipino lawyers. In 2019, the Supreme Court finally approved the provision of online MCLE. The learning center has since become the leader and standard setter in providing digital MCLE for lawyers in and even outside the country.

Through ACCESS, lawyers can now choose the best option for MCLE based on their convenience and learning preferences. Learners can sign up for online on-demand or flexi-synchronous sessions. For those who are into the traditional classroom mode, face-to-face classes are still offered.

“Our on-demand online sessions enable learners to attend classes whenever, wherever they are. The flexi-synch option makes MCLE program schedule identical all year round so learners can catch a lesson they miss on the same day and time on the following month, still online,” Atty. Peaches explains.

Maintained quality of programs

She further assures fellow law practitioners about the quality of the MCLE programs offered by ACCESS. “We have curated the best and timely courses facilitated by no less than some of the country’s legal luminaries. We have even invested in technology to produce the best online sessions that are setting the industry standards higher,” she says.

Atty. Peaches even points out how ACCESS is democratizing MCLE, helping lawyers address the budget constraints. “Our online programs can make learners save on transport costs going to and from traditional classroom-type sessions. The time a learner saves while still complying with the MCLE requirement can arguably be priceless.”

To learn more about ACCESS MCLE and its programs, visit https://accessonline.ph/.

 

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DoubleDragon subsidiary Hotel101 Global set to list on the Nasdaq

DOUBLEDRAGON.COM.PH

SINGAPORE/MANILA — Philippine real estate firm DoubleDragon on Monday said subsidiary Hotel101 Global will list on the Nasdaq in the United States via a merger with special purpose acquisition company JVSPAC Acquisition Corp.

Hotel101 Global will become the first Philippine company to list in the U.S. following the deal with the SPAC – a publicly listed shell that raises funds to merge with a private entity.

The merger is likely to result in Hotel101 having an equity value of over $2.3 billion, DoubleDragon, Hotel101 and JVSPAC said in a joint statement. It will close in the second half of the year with Hotel101 listing under ticker “HBNB”.

“We believe that a NASDAQ listing will provide Hotel101 with access to public capital markets and help accelerate our global expansion plans,” Hotel101 CEO Hannah Yulo-Luccini said in the statement.

Hotel101 is the hotel arm of Philippines-listed DoubleDragon, formed by tycoon Sia with Jollibee Foods owner Tony Tan Caktiong.

It builds and operates hotels with standardized, 21 square metre rooms that it sells individually to investors.

Hotel101’s asset-light business model generates revenue first from room sales and then from the recurring income from day-to-day hotel operations, Yulo-Luccini said.

It is headquartered in Singapore and operates two hotels in the Philippines, with three under development in Japan, Spain and the U.S.

The firm aims to expand to 25 countries including China and Saudi Arabia by 2026, and derive 95% of revenue from overseas.

JVSPAC is led by Albert Wong, former CEO of luxury products distributor Kingsway Group – the sole distributor of Lamborghini cars in Hong Kong, Macau and Guangzhou, the statement showed.

The merger will see Hotel101 join a growing number of Southeast Asian firms to list in the U.S., filling a void left by Chinese companies that have paused such listings amid Sino-U.S. tension.

Vietnamese EV maker VinFast listed in the U.S. in August via a merger with SPAC Black Spade Acquisition. It now commands a market value of some $10 billion, LSEG data showed.

In February, the parent of Malaysian budget airline AirAsia, Capital A, finalised a deal to list its brand management unit on the Nasdaq with SPAC Aetherium Acquisition. That deal gave the unit, Capital A International, an enterprise value of $1.15 billion. — Reuters

Brazil judge opens inquiry into Musk after refusal to block accounts on X

TWITTER.COM/ELONMUSK

BRASILIA – A standoff between Elon Musk and Brazil escalated on Sunday when a Supreme Court judge opened an inquiry into the billionaire after Musk said he would reactivate accounts on the social media platform X that the judge had ordered blocked.

Mr. Musk, the owner of X and a self-declared free speech absolutist, has challenged a decision by Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordering the blocking of certain accounts. He has said X, formerly known as Twitter, would lift all the restrictions because they were unconstitutional and called on Mr. Moraes to resign.

Neither Mr. Musk, X nor Brazilian authorities have disclosed which social media accounts were ordered blocked. X first posted about the order to block on Saturday but it was not immediately clear when the order was issued.

Mr. Moraes is investigating “digital militias” that have been accused of spreading fake news and hate messages during the government of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and is also leading an investigation into an alleged coup attempt by Bolsonaro.

Mr. Musk, in an X post on Saturday evening, accused Mr. Moraes of “brazenly and repeatedly” betraying the constitution and people of Brazil.

“This judge has applied massive fines, threatened to arrest our employees and cut off access to X in Brazil,” he said in the post.

“As a result, we will probably lose all revenue in Brazil and have to shut down our office there. But principles matter more than profit.”

The billionaire has pledged to legally challenge the order blocking X accounts where possible.

Mr. Moraes responded on Sunday by adding Mr. Musk to the investigation he is leading into fake news on social media, and opening an inquiry into what he called an obstruction of justice.

In his decision, Mr. Moraes said: “X shall refrain from disobeying any court order already issued, including performing any profile reactivation that has been blocked by this Supreme Court.”

If X fails to comply with the order to block certain accounts the company will be fined 100,000 reais ($19,740) per day, the judge said in a statement released to media.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s leftist government expressed support for Mr. Moraes, with Solicitor General Jorge Messias criticizing Mr. Musk and calling for the regulation of social media networks to prevent foreign platforms from violating Brazilian laws.

“We cannot live in a society in which billionaires domiciled abroad have control of social networks and put themselves in a position to violate the rule of law, failing to comply with court orders and threatening our authorities,” Mr. Messias said in a post on X.

Last year, Mr. Moraes also ordered an investigation into executives at social messaging platform Telegram and Alphabet’s Google, who were in charge of a campaign criticizing a proposed internet regulation bill.

The bill puts the onus on internet companies, search engines and social messaging services to find and report illegal material, instead of leaving it to the courts. It would also impose hefty fines for failures to do so. – Reuters

Yellen meets with China’s central bank chief, presses case on excess capacity

BEIJING – US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to wrap up four days of meetings in China with a visit to the central bank as she presses her case for Chinese leaders to rein in excess industrial capacity and boost domestic demand.

Ms. Yellen, who is on her second trip to China in nine months to further ease strained ties between the world’s two largest economies, has voiced concerns about China’s fast-growing exports of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and other green-energy goods.

She has argued that Chinese state support has led to production capacity that far exceeds domestic demand, and the exports will threaten jobs in the US and other countries.

Ms. Yellen spoke about the issue at length with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and also met with Finance Minister Lan Foan on Sunday. She also was meeting with former vice premier Liu He on Monday.

In a readout of the finance meeting, the Treasury said Yellen and Lan discussed the macroeconomic outlook and financial developments in the United States and China.

“They also discussed the important role that Treasury and the Ministry of Finance can play in maintaining a durable communication channel between the US and China,” the Treasury said.

Li pushed back on Ms. Yellen’s assertion, according to state news agency Xinhua, which quoted him as saying the US should “refrain from turning economic and trade issues into political or security issues” and view the issue of production capacity from a “market-oriented and global perspective”.

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao voiced more pointed objections during a roundtable meeting with Chinese EV makers Paris, saying that US and European assertions of Chinese excess EV capacity were groundless.

“China’s electric vehicle companies rely on continuous technological innovation, perfect production and supply chain system and full market competition for rapid development, not relying on subsidies to gain competitive advantage,” Wang said during his trip to discuss a European Union anti-subsidy probe.

Yellen will wrap up her trip to Guangzhou and Beijing with a news conference later on Monday. – Reuters

Australia proposes mandatory code of conduct for supermarkets, millions in fines

FREEPIK

SYDNEY – Australia’s major supermarkets could face fines of up to A$10 million ($6.6 million) if suppliers and growers are not treated fairly, an independent government review said on Monday, as it proposed to make a voluntary grocery code of conduct mandatory.

Under the proposed rules, supermarkets with annual revenue of over A$5 billion will fall under the mandatory code. That list currently includes Woolworths, Coles, ALDI and Australia’s largest independent grocery supplier Metcash.

For serious breaches, fines could be as large as A$10 million, 10% of annual turnover, or three times the benefit it gained from the breach, whichever is the biggest.

The interim government report did not recommend big supermarket operators should be forced to divest assets to improve competition.

“If forced divestiture resulted in a supermarket selling some of its stores to another large incumbent supermarket chain, the result could easily be greater market concentration,” the report said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called it “a very strong interim report”, adding his government wanted fair prices for both farmers and families.

In a Senate inquiry last month, a fruit and vegetable farmers body said the antitrust regulator should be given powers to break up the supermarkets, weakening their hold on wholesale and retail prices.

Albanese has previously ruled out such moves, saying Australia has a private sector economy and that “we’re not the old Soviet Union.”

Woolworths and Coles, which together ring up about two-thirds of Australian grocery sales in one of the world’s most concentrated markets, have reported stellar profits after two years of high inflation. Six separate inquiries into their operations have been announced this year.

Coles, Woolworths and Metcash did not immediately respond to a request seeking comments on the review.

The interim report also proposed to strengthen protections for suppliers against possible retribution from supermarkets if they made a complaint to them.

Farmers say fruit and vegetable growers typically sell to supermarkets on weekly contracts and often accept uneconomic offers for their produce because of concerns about missing out on future sales due to the limited number of supermarkets.

Stakeholders can make submissions to the interim report by April 30, and the final report will be submitted to the government by June 30. – Reuters

Climate-warming gases being smuggled into Europe, investigation says

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Alexa from Pixabay

SINGAPORE – Large amounts of climate-warming refrigerant gases from China and Turkey are being smuggled illegally into Europe, undermining a global pact to phase them out, a report by the London-based Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) said on Monday.

The gases are hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a range of chemicals used mostly for cooling in industry and retail, which do not damage the ozone layer like other banned refrigerants, but as greenhouse gases can be several thousand times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Despite commitments to reduce HFC use, law enforcement agencies across the European Union are struggling to keep track of illicit shipments entering via Turkey, Russia or Ukraine, with smugglers resorting to increasingly sophisticated tactics to evade detection, the EIA said following a two-year undercover investigation.

“It’s still pretty easy to find illegal HFCs in the European market,” said Fin Walravens, a senior EIA campaigner. “There are signs that traders are adapting their methods, that they are getting a bit of savvy trying to evade authorities.”

“If you can sneak in the most polluting, nastiest gas, you’re basically getting the biggest buck.”

As part of the 2016 Kigali amendment to the Montreal Protocol, European and other industrial countries are committed to slash HFC use by 85% from 2012 to 2036. To make the phase-down happen, authorized HFC producers and consumers are assigned quotas that are reduced gradually.

But with demand still strong, the phase-downs have driven up prices, creating incentives for smugglers – many of whom are also licensed traders – to make more supply available, the report showed.

“It is so much easier if you’re licensed to just exceed your quota: it is so hard to prove,” said Mr. Walravens. “The phase-down is meant to make HFCs expensive and make people think alternatives are better and more cost effective, but if illegal trade comes in and is sold at half the price, the whole system crumbles.”

A 2021 EIA investigation suggested illegal HFCs smuggled into Europe could amount to 20-30% of legally traded volumes, the equivalent of up to 30 million tons of CO2. The new report did not give a revised estimate, but Mr. Walravens said “very little has changed”.

China is the world’s biggest HFC producer, with 39 authorized manufacturers granted production permits equivalent to 185 million tons of CO2 this year. It issued new rules in December to punish firms that exceed their quotas.

Even when alternative products are available, enforcing chemical phase-outs has been a major challenge, with some governments “unable or unwilling to crack down”, said Ian Rae of the University of Melbourne, who was a technical adviser to the Montreal Protocol.

“There always seems to be demand from customers who have been happy with the old product and reluctant to change to the new, which can be more expensive,” he said. – Reuters

US lawmakers strike deal on data privacy legislation

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay

WASHINGTON – Two key US lawmakers said on Sunday they struck a deal on draft bipartisan data privacy legislation that would restrict consumer data that technology companies can collect and give Americans the power to prevent selling of personal information or compel its deletion.

The agreement between Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell, who chairs the Commerce Committee, and Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Republican chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, would give individuals control over use of their personal information and require disclosure if data has been transferred to foreign adversaries.

Congress has been debating online privacy protections since at least 2019 amid concerns about use of data by social media companies including Meta Platforms’ Facebook, Alphabet’s Google and ByteDance-owned TikTok, but have been unable to reach agreement.

Aides told reporters on Sunday they hoped to advance legislation soon.

Meta, TikTok and Google could not immediately be reached for comment.

In a joint statement, the lawmakers said the plan gives the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general broad authority to oversee consumer privacy issues and establish “robust enforcement mechanisms to hold violators accountable, including a private right of action for individuals.”

The bill does not ban targeted advertising but gives consumers the ability to opt out of it. The FTC would create a new bureau focused on privacy and could issue fines for privacy violations which would also cover telecommunications companies.

In 2019, Facebook agreed to pay a record-breaking $5 billion fine to resolve an FTC probe into its privacy practices, triggered by allegations Facebook violated a 2012 consent decree. The FTC now wants to tighten that existing privacy settlement to ban profiting from minors’ data and expand curbs on facial-recognition technology.

In 2021, ByteDance agreed to a $92 million class-action settlement regarding data privacy claims from some U.S. TikTok users. Reuters reported last month that the FTC could soon resolve its investigation into TikTok over allegedly faulty privacy and data security practices.

Google and its YouTube unit in 2019 paid $170 million in a settlement with the FTC and New York to resolve allegations it broke federal law by collecting personal information about children.

US lawmakers Cantwell and Rodgers added: “This bipartisan, bicameral draft legislation is the best opportunity we’ve had in decades to establish a national data privacy and security standard that gives people the right to control their personal information.”

The measure would allow people to opt out of data processing if a company changes its privacy policy. It requires “affirmative express consent before sensitive data can be transferred to a third party.”

Consumers could sue “bad actors who violate their privacy rights – and recover money for damages when they’ve been harmed” and would stop “companies from using people’s personal information to discriminate against them,” the statement said.

The bill would require “annual reviews of algorithms to ensure they do not put individuals, including our youth, at risk of harm, including discrimination.” – Reuters

 

Ukraine’s energy system has stabilised, Zelenskiy makes new calls to help defend Kharkiv

PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE, Volodymyr Zelensky, at the annual session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly — PRESIDENT.GOV.UA

KYIV – The Ukrainian energy system that was severely damaged by Russian missile attacks in recent weeks is now almost completely stabilized, and the energy ministry on Sunday said no major imports were expected.

Ukraine’s electricity imports reached a record high at the end of March after a string of Russian missile strikes on critical infrastructure caused blackouts in many parts of the country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday said he had discussed a wave of attacks and bombings on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, with the heads of the Security Service, Defence Intelligence and the Interior minister.

Later, in his nightly video address, the president said the world must “finally hear” the pain inflicted on Kharkiv and other cities by Russian attacks and renewed a call for “political will” to ensure that Ukraine secures proper air defenses.

“It is quite obvious that our existing air defense capabilities in Ukraine are not sufficient and it is obvious to our partners,” Mr. Zelenskiy said. “And the world must finally hear the pain that Russian terrorists are causing to Kharkiv.”

Mr. Zelenskiy has for months called on Ukraine’s Western partners to provide the systems and munitions he says his country needs to oust Russian troops.

In an interview broadcast on Saturday, he said he still believes that a major US aid package would be approved by Congress, where it has faced Republican opposition for months.

Ukraine has been hit for weeks by a long series of missile attacks on critical infrastructure throughout the country, triggering a record high in electricity imports.

Since March 22, Russian forces have been attacking Ukrainian thermal and hydropower stations as well as main networks on an almost daily basis, which has led to the blackouts.

Grid company Ukrenergo said Russian drones had damaged the high-voltage network facility in the Kharkiv region overnight and the system operator had to introduce some power cuts.

“Today, Ukrenergo’s dispatch centre has been forced to increase the volume of emergency power outages in Kharkiv and the region,” the company said on Telegram.

However, the country’s power system remains “stable and balanced,” the energy ministry said in a statement.

It said power exports were expected at 115 megawatt hours (MWh) on Sunday while imports could total 1,179 Mwh.

Ukraine imported a record 18,649 MWh on March 26.

National grid company chief Volodymyr Kudrytskyi told Reuters last week that Russian attacks had caused significant damage to the power system, but a total collapse was unlikely. – Reuters

BSP to extend rate pause — poll

BW FILE PHOTO

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is widely expected to keep its policy rate steady for a fourth straight meeting as inflation may accelerate in the coming months.

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that all 16 analysts surveyed expect the Monetary Board to maintain its target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate at a near 17-year high of 6.5% at its meeting on Monday (April 8).

The BSP has hiked borrowing costs by 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023 to tame inflation. It has kept policy rates steady since the 25-bp off-cycle rate hike in October.

“We expect the BSP to remain on hold at the next meeting as it assesses the inflation momentum. The pickup in inflation to 3.7% in March was largely driven by base effects, while the sequential momentum remained limited,” Makoto Tsuchiya, economist from Oxford Economics, said in an e-mail.

Headline inflation accelerated for a second straight month to 3.7% in March from 3.4% in February. This was within the BSP’s 3.4-4.2% forecast and marked the fourth straight month that inflation was within the 2-4% target range.

Pantheon Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said in an e-mail that the Monetary Board is likely to keep rates steady “especially in the wake of the recent reacceleration in headline inflation on the back of food prices.”

Food inflation rose to 5.7% in March, its fastest pace in four months, mainly driven by the continued surge in rice prices.

“Though the March inflation rate of 3.7% year on year came in slightly lower than the consensus estimate of 3.8%, indicating that inflationary pressures may be moderating, the balance of risks remain on the upside notably with food and fuel prices threatening to go even higher,” Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in an e-mail.

China Bank Research said that the central bank will keep rates steady as upside risks to inflation continue to persist.

In a statement following the release of March inflation data last Friday, the BSP said that inflation could temporarily accelerate above the 2-4% target in the next two quarters due to the impact of weather conditions on agricultural output and positive base effects.

“The significant increase in rice prices and the faster rise in food and drink prices due to adverse weather both locally and from import sources, plus geopolitical developments threatening fuel and transport prices, will be closely watched, as these factors could potentially push inflation higher in the coming months,” Mr. Roces said.

In March, rice inflation quickened to 24.4% from 23.7% a month ago, its fastest print since the 24.6% in February 2009.

According to the state weather bureau, the El Niño dry spell has shown signs of weakening but is still expected to persist until May.

Latest data from the Agriculture department showed that agricultural damage caused by the El Niño has risen to P2.63 billion. Rice was the most affected crop, accounting for P1.72 billion of the damage

“If inflationary pressures intensify, the BSP may be prompted to continue its hawkish stance to anchor inflation expectations and maintain price stability,” Mr. Roces said.

TARGET
Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said that inflation may continue to breach the 2-4% target range in the coming months.

“We anticipate headline inflation to surge past 4% year on year starting in March with hefty contribution from rice CPI (consumer price index) and latent drought effects on the prices of the other crops, with the worst-case scenario of nearly 5%. Our monthly estimates indicated inflation peaking at 5% in May before the deceleration begins,” he said in an e-mail.

The BSP expects inflation to average 3.6% this year.

Inflation would only settle within target by the latter half of the year, Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said.

“Moving forward, we believe that inflation will reaccelerate anew before sustainably settling within the BSP’s 2-4% target starting the fourth quarter, due to the threats from El Niño, Middle East conflict escalation, and lagged impact of minimum wage hikes,” he said in an e-mail.

However, China Bank Research noted there are other indicators pointing towards easing price pressures.

“While we expect to see higher inflation readings until July, this uptrend is primarily driven by base effects. Moreover, there have been encouraging signs of easing inflationary pressures — prices of key food items such as fish, vegetables, eggs, and sugar have gone down in March,” it said.

Colegio de San Juan de Letran Graduate School Dean Emmanuel J. Lopez said that the inflation rate should settle within the target by yearend.

“(I) expect inflation rate will not breach the BSP target of 2-4% at the end of the year, possibly at 2.8%,” he said in an e-mail.

Barring any geopolitical risks and further damage from the drought, inflation could still remain within the target this year, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said.

“(It could be) briefly above the BSP inflation target at 4% levels from April-August with the easing of higher base effects, then back to within the BSP inflation target at 3% levels for most months from August-December,” he said in an e-mail.

AFTER THE FED HIKE
After the recent inflation uptick, analysts said they expect the BSP’s policy decisions to remain in lock step with the US Federal Reserve.

“Fully expecting the BSP to keep rates untouched with the Fed still on hold and domestic inflation close to the top end of the BSP’s inflation target. We maintain our view that any potential rate cut from the BSP will likely come after a Fed rate reduction,” Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, senior economist at ING Bank N.V. Manila said in an e-mail.

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) stood pat at its meeting in March, keeping its fed funds steady at the 5.25-5.5% range. From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised rates by a total of 525 bps.

“The BSP cutting ahead of the Fed risks more peso weakness in the short term,” Patrick M. Ella, economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., added.

De La Salle University School of Economics Professor Jesus Felipe said that any rate cuts would likely be delivered in the second semester.

“The cut in interest rates will start during the second half of the year. The Monetary Board wants to make sure that inflation stays within its 2-4% target. Somehow, the factors that led to the increase in prices in 2022 (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine war) remain, and uncertainty has even increased,” he said in an e-mail.

Mr. Ella said that the BSP’s first rate cut could be delivered in June, a few days after the Fed’s own policy meeting that month.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. last month said that the Monetary Board is closely watching the Fed’s next move, but it does not need to “wait for them” to begin cutting rates as its own monetary decisions are independent of the US central bank.

At the time, Mr. Remolona said that the BSP may begin policy easing in its next few meetings.

However, Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said that the BSP is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon.

“With inflation on a renewed reacceleration path and potentially breaching the upper bound of BSP’s target range in coming months, rate cuts are off the table. Meanwhile, the odds of resuming monetary tightening are low, given how far inflation has eased from its peak,” she said in an e-mail.

March dollar reserves highest in nearly 2 years

A bank employee counts US dollar notes in this file photo, May 16, 2016. — REUTERS

THE PHILIPPINES’ gross international reserves (GIR) jumped to a near two-year high of $104.03 billion at the end of March, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

Preliminary data from the BSP showed that dollar reserves rose by 2% from $101.99 billion as of end-February. It was also up by 2.4% from $101.55 billion a year ago.

This was the highest GIR level in almost two years or since the $105.4 billion recorded in April 2022.

“The month-on-month increase in the GIR level reflected mainly the National Government’s (NG)  net foreign currency deposits with the BSP, upward valuation adjustments in the value of the BSP’s gold holdings due to the increase in the price of gold in the international market, and net income from the BSP’s investments abroad,” it said in a statement.

As of end-March, the level of dollar reserves was enough to cover about 6.1 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 3.7 times based on residual maturity.

It was also equivalent to 7.7 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that the rise in dollar reserves was due to higher foreign investments, foreign exchange holdings and an increase in the value of gold holdings.

The central bank’s foreign investments edged higher by 1.7% to $87.91 billion as of end-March from $86.45 billion in the previous month. Year on year, foreign investments went up by 2.9% from $85.4 billion.

Reserves in the form of gold were valued at $10.53 billion. This was 1.9% higher than $10.34 billion as of end-February and 4.5% higher than $10.07 billion as of end-March 2023.

Meanwhile, foreign currency deposits surged by 58% to $1.07 billion from $677.8 million a month earlier. However, it declined by 27% from $1.47 billion in the year-ago period.    

“The National Government’s planned global bonds as early as the second quarter 2024 would also be added to the country’s balance of payments and GIR data,” Mr. Ricafort added.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto has said that the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) is finalizing the details of its first global bond offering this year. The BTr has yet to release details on this.

This year, the government is planning to borrow P2.46 trillion, of which P606.85 billion is expected to come from foreign sources.

Meanwhile, BSP data showed net international reserves stood at $103.8 billion as of end-March, up by 1.8% from $102 billion in the previous month.

Net international reserves are the difference between the BSP’s reserve assets or GIR and reserve liabilities, such as short-term foreign debt and credit and loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The country’s reserve position in the IMF decreased by 1.5% to $741.3 million from $752.5 million at end-February. It also dropped by 8.3% from $808.3 million a year ago.

Special drawing rights — the amount the country can tap from the IMF — was unchanged at $3.778 billion for the second straight month.

“For the coming months, the country’s GIR could still be supported by the continued growth in the country’s structural inflows from overseas Filipino workers (OFW) remittances, business process outsourcing (BPO) revenues, exports, (and) relatively fast recovery in foreign tourism revenues,” Mr. Ricafort added.

This year, the BSP projects the GIR level to settle at $103 billion. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

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