IT MAKES SENSE to think that Donald Trump’s trade war is increasing the risk for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan because it adds pressure on Beijing. But the self-ruled island isn’t more vulnerable because of the tariffs. It’s already under siege from the mainland on multiple fronts.

Taipei has long been a geopolitical flashpoint. It now risks losing its hard-won autonomy if it doesn’t confront these threats with greater urgency. That means strengthening military capabilities, passing a long overdue defense budget, and preparing citizens for a possibly prolonged period of mainland aggression. It has already invested in missile defense systems and asymmetric weaponry, and extended the conscription service. But progress on these deterrence measures has been uneven.

Some analysts have speculated whether Trump’s tariffs will accelerate China’s timeline for unification because Washington is distracted. Beijing has been ramping up military activities. It has sent a surging number of warplanes and coast guard vessels around the island. Strategists have referred to this campaign as an “anaconda strategy,” a way to strangle Taiwan militarily, economically, diplomatically, and psychologically, eventually forcing unification without ever having to formally declare war. 

Beijing is clearly preparing for confrontation. The People’s Liberation Army is now the world’s largest maritime fighting force and continues to modernize rapidly. Recent video footage of new barges suggests it may have developed the capacity to land tens of thousands of troops and heavy equipment on Taiwan’s shores. Capability doesn’t equal intent, but the images are a reminder of Beijing’s ambitions. Still, most military experts agree the most likely scenario would be a quarantine or a blockade, not a full-scale amphibious assault, which is believed to be beyond the PLA’s reach for now. Taiwanese intelligence says 2027 could be a potentialt target date for an attack.

As destructive as this defense buildup is, the mainland also is weakening the island from within. In the last year, prosecutions for espionage, particularly among military personnel, have soared in Taiwan. And Beijing is using AI-created disinformation campaigns to divide Taiwanese society as well as targeting undersea communications cables, cutting off digital infrastructure to isolate the island. These operations fit with the idea of “winning without fighting,” as outlined by the ancient philosopher of war Sun Tzu, and favored by President Xi Jinping.

China is likely to exploit Trump’s unpredictability to its advantage, noted Xin Qiang, an academic at Fudan University, on a recent Asia Society podcast before tariffs went into effect. Beijing sees Trump as transactional, which makes him dangerous but also possibly useful, he suggests.

Taiwan’s own politics may also be giving China the upper hand. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is gridlocked with the opposition Kuomintang party in parliament, delaying critical defense legislation. The uncertain environment and America’s lack of security guarantees could play directly into Xi’s hands, convincing the Taiwanese they may be safer in Beijing’s embrace rather than Washington’s.

The 90-day reprieve from the tariffs on America’s trading partners is a chance for negotiation. President Lai Ching-te is hoping the deal he’s offering Trump will be enough to not just secure trade relief, but guarantees security ties too.

Relying on that alone is dangerous. It’s time for Lai to use his political skills to get opposition parties to come to an agreement, and not allow infighting to derail security planning. In the absence of a consistent American-led effort to deter China, Taipei needs to prioritize self-reliance, and work to pass the defense budget.

Lessons from countries like Finland and Sweden, which spent decades preparing for the threat of Russian aggression, are instructive. Taiwan is already implementing a whole-of-society resilience approach, including citizen training and civil defense measures. This will help in preparations for a potential attack. In the past, these efforts were downplayed out of fear of spooking citizens. Acknowledging the urgency now is progress, and should continue.

Taipei should also counter Beijing’s AI disinformation campaigns in a coordinated manner, and educate the population. Some of this is already happening, but boosting media literacy campaigns and public awareness programs could help bring home the scale of the threat.

Trump’s transactional diplomacy threatens to isolate the island just when solidarity around its future is urgently needed. Beijing will exploit any cracks. Depending simply on the whims of the administration in the White House for protection means gambling with its own future. Taiwan may be under siege, but it’s not without options to cement its own security.

BLOOMBERG OPINION